What a terrifying thought for the National League. Roy Halladay, a 34-year-old pitcher with a history of utter dominance, is beginning 2011 with the best numbers of his career, and by a wide margin. Forget the two Cy Young seasons. Forget the seven All-Star games. Roy Halladay has taken a massive leap forward in 2011, and the result is a trail of destruction blazed straight through the National League.
By now, surely you’ve seen the bad news for San Francisco: standout young catcher Buster Posey suffered a left leg injury (assumed to be a broken left ankle and torn ligaments) as a result of a collision with Marlins outfielder Scott Cousins in last night’s game. The injury appears to be season ending, leaving the Giants without one of the best catchers — and players — in the game.
Even though the 24-year-old Posey hadn’t completely hit his stride yet, with a meager .389 slugging percentage, he was still productive for the Giants. His .368 on-base percentage represented a marked improvement over last season’s .351 mark, and his 113 wRC+ ranked fourth among qualified catchers. Throw in his significant defensive contributions — 15 CS against 27 SB, a solid 36% rate — and Posey’s 1.8 WAR ranks only behind Rusell Martin’s 2.0.
According to ZiPS, Posey was primed to get back to last year’s numbers, a .366 wOBA and roughly 4.0 WAR over the latter four months of the season. Replacing that kind of production is nearly impossible; it becomes even harder from the catcher position, as very few players will be available and the internal options are less than impressive. Eli Whiteside will crouch behind the dish for San Francisco today, and the Giants can only hope he can improve on his career .283 wOBA. ZiPS is not confident, projecting a .281 wOBA. Such a mark would place Whiteside marginally above replacement level over 300 or so plate appearances. Thus, it seems fair to say Posey’s injury looks to cost the Giants somewhere between three and four wins without some sort of move for a replacement catcher.
The Giants currently hold a 2.5 game lead on Arizona, a team which will likely regress, and a three game lead on their real competitor, Colorado. According to Baseball Prospectus’s playoff odds, the Giants entered today with an 86.3% chance at the playoffs, including 82.8% odds of winning the NL West. Those odds, however, assume the Giants are a .564 true winning percentage team, or just over a 91-win team. Without Posey, the Giants’ would then be closer to an 86-win true talent team, or a .531 true winning percentage team.
Even with that adjustment, the Giants project as slightly better than Colorado (.525 according to BP) going forward, largely thanks to the tremendous ability of San Francisco’s pitching staff. The Giants will remain favorites by a decent margin, but instead of winning the division 8 out of 9 times, it will be more like 5 or 6. For example, the Cardinals have a .010 expected winning percentage lead on Milwaukee and a 2.5 game lead in the division, and are division winners 66% of the time.
There is still time for the Giants to pick up a worthy replacement for Posey, but given the scarcity at the catcher position, a match may be difficult to find. In the current situation, the Colorado Rockies once again have hope, despite their horrid month of May. Luckily for San Francisco, they built up a head start with Posey. It’s enough of a head start for San Francisco to retain their position as favorites, but chances are the race in the NL West will be tight down the stretch.
I’m sure I’m not alone in the fact that I immediately head for the leaderboards as soon as we here at FanGraphs (or at any other excellent statistics site, of course) adds a new statistic. I am probably also not alone in the sense that the first thing I look for on these leaderboards are the oddities, the unexpected leaders or trailers. On the new Ultimate Base Running leaderboards that we recently added, I’m just not seeing too many surprises.
First, the leaders:
Nate McLouth, +2.8
Alex Rios, +2.8
Melky Cabrera, +2.7
Alexei Ramirez, +2.5
Alex Gordon, +2.4
Aaron Rowand, +2.2
Brian Roberts, +2.2
Danny Espinosa, +2.2
Michael Bourn, +2.1
Ichiro Suzuki, +2.1
I would be surprised to see Bourn and Suzuki not on this list; Ramirez, Rios, Roberts, Rowand, Espinosa, and McLouth all make some sense, as they have speed and a history of at least decent SB numbers. The two Royals on the list, Gordon and Cabrera, come as slight surprises to me. Nothing ever suggested that Gordon was the fleetest of foot, and Cabrera isn’t exactly in peak physical condition. Perhaps if they were above average, it would be understandable, but I am surprised they are in the top 10 in the entire league so far. Maybe it’s some of that gritty Dayton Moore baseball?
Now, the trailers:
Paul Konerko, -4.4
Casey McGehee, -4.1
Brett Wallace, -4.0
Chipper Jones, -3.6
David Ortiz, -2.8
Ryan Howard, -2.8
Aramis Ramirez, -2.5
Alfonso Soriano, -2.4
Adrian Gonzalez, -2.1
Yadier Molina, -2.1
Even fewer surprises here. This list is almost entirely populated by corner infielders, with only one catcher (Molina) and one outfielder (Soriano), and of course the DH in Ortiz. I would have expected more catchers on this list, although I suspect they aren’t receiving enough playing time (or reaching base enough) to compile enough negative baserunning events. Of these players, I think the only one I’m surprised to see here is Soriano, but at 35 it isn’t too shocking that his prior baserunning prowess (+3.9 career, and +7.9 in 2002-2004, the first three years of UBR) has diminished.
It has been said that a good metric will mostly confirm what you know, although with a few surprises here and there. At least looking at 2011 UBR so far, our new baserunning metric appears to satisfy that statement.
The Arizona Diamondbacks entered 2010 as one of the most intriguing teams in the majors. Showcasing a rotation led by Dan Haren and Edwin Jackson (and with Brandon Webb potentially waiting in the wings) and a fantastically talented young offense including Justin Upton, Chris Young, and Mark Reynolds, there was reason to believe the Diamondbacks could compete with the beasts of the West. Instead, the bullpen failed them, as such names as Juan Gutierrez, Chad Qualls, and Esmerling Vasquez combined to post a 5.47 ERA along with a historically bad -10 WPA (Win Probability Added) and sink any dreams Arizona had of respectability, much less competition.
“Hey, guys. Remember how I’m really good at baseball? Yeah, me too.”
This edition of One Night Only (from a super-extra-special guest host!) contains:
1. Expanded previews for two games: a matchup of aces in Boston, and a West Coast rivalry game featuring two solid young pitchers.
2. Additionally, find enclosed brief previews for three other, only slightly less titillating tilts: Atlanta at Arizona, Chicago (AL) at Cleveland, and Milwaukee at San Diego.
3. Pitcher and Team NERD scores for every one of tonight’s games.
Matt Garza probably thought he was through the sixth inning of Tuesday’s game against the Reds when Miguel Cairo stepped into the batters box. He definitely thought he was after Cairo waved at a slider in the dirt with two strikes. But then all of this happened. In the box score and the play logs, it goes down as a simple dropped third strike, but clearly there is more to the story. Let’s break down perhaps the most “Chicago Cubs” play of the season so far.
Thanks to the commenters drew and Rick for pointing out a rule that I missed. Check out an update after the conclusion of the original story.
Coming into the 2011 season, the Indians’ return on the CC Sabathia trade had been disappointingly small. Not only had centerpiece Matt LaPorta failed to make an impact at the major-league level, but Zach Jackson washed out early, Rob Bryson still toils in the minor leagues, and the second-biggest piece, Michael Brantley, had struggled mightily in his short time with the big club, compiling a .291 wOBA and -1.2 WAR in his first two seasons (100 games, 446 plate appearances) as a Cleveland Indian. As has been the way with seemingly everything in Cleveland in 2011, though, Brantley has turned it around. The 24-year-old center fielder carries a .349 wOBA into Monday’s action, and it appears that he may finally be here to stay at the MLB level.
After being treated like a hot potato by the Cardinals, Athletics, Phillies, and Blue Jays, Brett Wallace has finally found a home in Houston. He reached the majors last year and now sits upon the first base throne vacated by Lance Berkman at last year’s trade deadline. Through the first month of 2011, Wallace has a .383/.448/.543 triple-slash line that would make even the Puma proud. Wallace clearly isn’t this good — his line is heavily supported by a .466 BABIP — but that doesn’t mean we should just ignore it. Instead, let’s learn from the small sample and see what it can tell us about his performance moving forward.