A report suggesting that the San Francisco Giants were considering releasing Barry Zito appear to be bunk, according to Andrew Baggarly at MercuryNews.com. This isn’t particularly surprising or necessarily even newsworthy. I only bring this item up because it has resurrected my interest in a particularly intriguing baseball topic (at least to me): the reluctance of a general manager to release a replacement-level player with an albatross contract.
Did any team make a bigger splash over the winter than the Milwaukee Brewers? During a winter when the team was expected to sell on star first baseman Prince Fielder and restock for the future, the Brewers did exactly the opposite, emptying the farm to add Zack Greinke and Shaun Marcum to a rotation desperately needing a shot in the arm. Even as the team still has some glaring flaws, these additions have the Brewers poised to compete for a return to the postseason.
Starting today, FanGraphs is offering a season preview for each team in baseball. We’ll begin with the NL West and do three teams each day. Check back later for our thoughts on the Giants and Rockies, and stay tuned over the next few weeks where we break down each team’s chances in 2011.
After dealing Dan Haren to the Angels during the 2010 season, the Diamondbacks have gone into full rebuilding mode under new General Manager Kevin Towers. The team traded Mark Reynolds, but much of the relatively young talent which keyed Arizona’s powerful offense remains. Towers has surrounded that young talent with aging veterans, ostensibly hoping to use 2011 as a season for the young guns to learn how to win from the older guys. Unfortunately, much like last year, the Diamondbacks roster doesn’t project to do much winning this season.
Last season was a rude and abrupt awakening for those thinking that Nyjer Morgan had made a step toward stardom. In 2009, Morgan combined above-average hitting with a UZR love affair to produce a breakout 4.9 WAR season. But Morgan couldn’t maintain the historic +28 UZR he posted in 2009 and, at the same time, his batting line dropped off sharply as his BABIP fell down to earth. Still, despite the catastrophic fall on offense and defense, Morgan still had one point of value to cling to: baserunning. Speed doesn’t slump, as they say, and it didn’t for Morgan in 2010. The speedster compiled another 34 stolen bases after posting 42 in his first full season in 2009.
Of course, just as batting average doesn’t tell the whole story of hitting, stolen bases don’t tell the whole story of baserunning. The caught stealing can be a costly result for a team, so much so that a player needs to succeed at least three times as often as he fails for the stolen base to provide value. And despite all of his speed, somehow Nyjer Morgan has failed to provide value via the stolen base over the course of his career.
As unfortunate as the Adam Wainwright injury is for the Cardinals, they can hardly afford to wallow in shame. With all the rest of the talent on hand in St. Louis, the Cardinals are still within striking distance of the NL Central title as well as the Wild Card. How close they can come to a playoff appearance without one of the best pitchers in the game will largely depend on his replacement. The Cardinals look to have a few options. Internally, they can consider, among others, Bryan Augenstein, Kyle McClellan, P.J. Walters, and Ian Snell. Through free agency, they can consider Kevin Millwood and Chad Durbin. For the purposes of this exercise, I would like to avoid speculating on trades. Paul Swydan covered many of these yesterday, but today, I’d like to ask for your help with their projections.
McClellan has functioned completely as a reliever for the Cardinals since 2008, appearing in 68 games each season. In that role, McClellan has a fine 3.23 ERA, but his peripherals don’t look quite as hot. McClellan’s K/9 of 7.2 and BB/9 of 3.4 are nothing special in a relief role, and it’s not like McClellan is a Dave Duncan Special in terms of ground ball rate, although inducing 50% of ground balls is solid. The question for McClellan is how well his .270 career BABIP would translate into a starting role, with hitters seeing his stuff multiple times and fatigue potentially setting in the later innings.
Augenstein and Walters have limited Major League histories, throwing only 63 combined innings in the Major Leagues. Walters was unimpressive in his cup of coffee with St. Louis last year, but he has posted solid peripherals in AAA each of the last two seasons with FIPs below 3.75. Augenstein was plucked from the Diamondbacks organization in the offseason, and is most notable for posting one of the better minor league seasons in the game according to Dan Szymborski’s zMLEs
Ian Snell was supposed to be a reclamation project for the Seattle Mariners, but he was unable to return to the effectiveness he showed with the Pirates in 2007. Given that he is now three full years removed from that 3.5 WAR season, Snell’s MLB career will likely reach an end without a quick resurgence. But Dave Duncan has been able to find that magic with starters before, such as Joel Piniero and Jake Westbrook. Is Ian Snell next on that list?
The external options are less than exciting. Kevin Millwood only managed a 5.10 ERA and 4.86 FIP with Baltimore in 2010. A move out of Camden Yards and into the National League should help, but one has to wonder whether a 36-year-old starting pitcher with 2500 innings already in his right arm can manage to return to competence. Chad Durbin had a good 2010 for the Phillies in relief, with a 3.80 ERA and 3.97 FIP, but could he maintain that kind of success as a starter? Given his overall poor career numbers, chances don’t seem high.
Of course, there are some other options for the Cardinals, including Jeremy Bonderman, Miguel Batista, Adam Ottavino, and Lance Lynn, and you can click on these individual names to project them as well. But I think these first six will be enough work for most.
Click here to tell us how you think the various Cardinal SP replacements will do in 2011.
Recently, the game lost two prominent outfielders to retirement: Gary Sheffield and Jim Edmonds. Although these two players will certainly invoke some heated Hall of Fame debates – Dave already covered Sheffield’s Hall angle last week – I am personally more interested in how the two players would have performed in 2011.
Only three springs ago, Scott Kazmir was the ace of an up-and-coming Tampa Bay Rays staff. Just a few years prior, Kazmir formed the punchline of Jim Duquette’s general managerial career, with the former executive forking over the young stud for the paltry cost of one Victor Zambrano. Even though the franchise was young, there were two clear faces for the newly de-deviled Rays: Carl Crawford at the plate and in left field, and Kazmir as the ace of the staff. Over the three years prior, Kazmir had broken out as one of the top pitchers in the game, racking up 13 Wins Above Replacement during his ascension.
Now, fast forward. The Rays fulfill their status as up-and-comers with an AL championship, but Kazmir’s role is somewhat muted due to injuries and an ineffective changeup. Pitchers like Matt Garza and James Shields take over the staff, and Kazmir is jettisoned during to the Angels during a 2009 season that can now be described as a recharge for Tampa Bay. In 2010, the Rays return to the top of the AL East while Kazmir languishes at the bottom of the Angels rotation, “producing” 0.8 wins below replacement with everything in his repertoire seemingly down the toilet. Remember ace Scott Kazmir of Tampa Bay? Seems like ages ago.
As the league prepares for Spring Training, there remain a few players left unsigned, left searching for teams as we celebrate Truck Days and Pitchers and Catchers Report Days. I can only imagine how depressing it is for these players – just picture a player sitting at home, baseball glove in hand, cap on head, watching with a frown on his face as all his friends depart for the warmth and promise of Arizona and Florida. Well, for one player, I have a solution. Russell Branyan, you were born to play for the Tampa Bay Rays.
Although Branyan’s stock has cooled considerably since he first burst on to the scene (at least for those outside the sabermetric community, which always loved his righty-mashing ways), he still has something left to give. Over the last two seasons, Branyan has slugged 56 homers, compiling a 125 wRC+ and 4.9 WAR. Marcel projects a line of .239/.324/.470, ZiPS projects .235/.330/.480, and CAIRO, most optimistically, foresees a .246/.339/.494 line. No matter who you ask, they’ll tell you one thing about Branyan: he’s got power. Even though he can only play 1B and DH, that power is enough to warrant a Major League contract worth multiple millions of dollars- he just needs a team.
Yes, the Tampa Bay Rays already have a first baseman in Dan Johnson and a designated hitter in Manny Ramirez, but is that reason enough for them to shun Branyan? Hardly. Although a platoon between Johnson and Branyan isn’t really plausible – both are left-handed – the Rays would be well served to have an experienced Plan B for Johnson. Casey Kotchman is currently on the roster, but his time with the Seattle Mariners showed that he isn’t contributing anything anytime soon. Also, it clearly wouldn’t hurt to have a backup plan for Manny, who, even ignoring his penchant to go off-the-rails, is 39 next season and likely a) an injury risk and b) would require some rest days. The Rays pretty clearly have 300 or so plate appearances to offer The Muscle, and potentially more.
Listening to the first few broadcasts from Spring Training and hearing the Tim Kurkjians of the world declare that “the Rays have taken a major step back” gives a sense of gloom, doom, and definite third place (or worse!) for the team from the Trop. Although it is true that the team has taken a step back, it’s not so much that they won’t be competing in 2011. The first PECOTAs have the Rays within seven games of the Yankees – a wide gap, but one that wouldn’t be insurmountable with two potential extra wins from Branyan. The newest CAIROs have an even smaller gap – only four games – a gap that the Rays could easily clear with a few breaks, and becomes even closer with Branyan’s help.
So, yes, Tampa, even though many of your plans are made and bags are packed, try and find room for one more in your Spring Training complex. You know how sad and lonely it must be for Russell to wait at home and watch his friends practicing in the inviting Florida sun. Just give him a call and let him play too!
Over the last nine baseball seasons, at least one thing has been constant: the domination of Ron Gardenhire’s Minnesota Twins by the New York Yankees. Between the regular season and the postseason, the Twins have lost a staggering 57 of their last 75 contests against the New York, including a sweep in last season’s ALDS that just seemed all too familiar. These struggles have created a narrative: the little-guy Twins, despite all their regular season success, crumble under the pressure of the big-city Yankees. Is this just the magnification of a small 75-game sample, or is there something substantive in the Twins 18-57 record against the Yankees under Gardenhire?
The Red Sox plucked away a Yankee yesterday, signing 28-year-old right-hander Alfredo Aceves to a $650 thousand dollar contract. Aceves was only a key player for the Yankees for one season, 2009, when he racked up 1.3 WAR in 84 innings with the eventual World Series champs. For his MLB career, 126 innings of primarily relief work with New York, Aceves has a 3.21 ERA, a 4.13 FIP, and a 4.21 xFIP. The Red Sox, however, plan to convert Aceves into a starter.