Part two in an ongoing series on players with 2011 options.

David Ortiz, Boston Red Sox
Option: $12.5M Buyout: None

Reports of David Ortiz’s demise have been greatly exaggerated. After a poor 2009 – largely a product of a .238 BABIP – Ortiz responded in a big way in 2010. Big Papi slugged 32 home runs, breaking the 30 homer barrier for the first time since 2007, and posted a 137 wRC+ in 606 plate appearances. Even at the DH position, that’s worth a solid 3.3 WAR. After his dismal 2009, in which he only posted 0.8 WAR, it may have looked like the Red Sox would do all they could to make sure Ortiz wasn’t around by 2011. At this point, though, with Ortiz coming off the strong 2010 and projected as a 2.5 WAR player by CHONE, the Red Sox will likely look to bring the slugger back. If we see any sort of salary inflation, Ortiz’s deal will settle right around market value and possibly a touch below, which a team like the Red Sox can certainly handle.

Nick Johnson, New York Yankees
Option: $5.5M Buyout: $0.25M

Nick Johnson was supposed to shore up the Yankees DH position this year, assuming he could avoid injuries. Unfortunately for New York, a Nick Johnson injury is as certain as death and taxes. In 98 plate appearances this year, Johnson had mixed results; he reached base at a .388 clip but his contact rates and BABIP were way down. Of course, we can’t glean a whole lot from those plate appearances, and when Johnson plays we can probably still expect the high-OBP, medium power type player that we’ve seen this whole millennium. But if that player can’t stay on the field, he’s not worth much to anybody, and for that reason, we can probably expect the Yankees to decline their half of the mutual option. Five and a half million isn’t much for the Yankees, but it’s not nothing, and even the Yankees do operate on a budget and will look to use that money on upgrades either at the DH position or elsewhere.

According to John Fay of the Cincinnati Enquirer, the Reds will pick up Bronson Arroyo’s option after the season. Arroyo’s option calls for $11 million, and by picking it up, the Reds will forgo a $2 million buyout.

In the same article, Fay also notes that the Reds will not be picking up Aaron Harang’s option. That leaves the following pitchers as potential options for the Cincinnati opening day starting rotation: Arroyo, Johnny Cueto, Edinson Volquez, Travis Wood, Homer Bailey, Mike Leake, Matt Maloney, Sam LeCure, and, potentially, Aroldis Chapman.

Therefore, when evaluating this contract, we need to not only compare Arroyo to replacement level but also to the level of these other starters that the Reds have available. Arroyo put up 1.7 WAR in 2009, with a mediocre 4.61 FIP but a solid, .246 BABIP supported 3.88 ERA. Overall, Arroyo was a 1.7 WAR pitcher, but thanks to his good ERA, his performance was worth much more than that to the Reds last season.

Arroyo definitely could be the kind of guy who can outperform his FIP, but I would hesitate to project another season in which his results better his peripherals by three quarters of a run or more. Arroyo has a slightly low career BABIP of .290 and his LOB rates are very close to league average. As such, we should expect the difference between Arroyo’s FIP and ERA to be somewhere between zero and his career average of 0.27 instead of the 0.72 we saw in 2010.

According to CHONE’s most recent projections, Arroyo is a 4.48 ERA pitcher. Of the other starters listed above, none of them have a projected ERA above 4.78 (Chapman doesn’t have a projection). CHONE projects five starters (aside from Arroyo) to put up at least 17 RAR and three others to put up 11 RAR. It appears that the young depth that the Reds have would be able to cover the loss of Arroyo quite well. Arroyo probably provides half a win to one win above the rest of the Reds rotation, making $11 million a high price to pay.

However, with the Reds coming off their first playoff season in 15 seasons, Walt Jocketty probably isn’t terribly willing to risk success on five extremely young starters. To him, the relatively marginal upgrade of Arroyo over those young pitchers appears to be worth the premium. As the commitment is only for one season and the Reds have already expressed an intention to increase payroll, this kind of contract certainly isn’t going to kill the Reds, either in 2011 or in the future.

Despite that, the Reds aren’t a team without weaknesses, and they may be able to do better than Arroyo with that $11 million. The free agent crop at SP is relatively thin this year, and that makes holding on to Arroyo a safe use of their money. If players like Scott Rolen and Drew Stubbs and Johnny Cueto perform as well as they did last year, that may be enough for a repeat NL Central championship. If not, the Reds may find themselves wishing they made a bigger play with their money than the relatively stable but unimpressive Arroyo.

Previous Reviews:
MIN/NYY
PHI/CIN

This is the first non-sweep of the division series so far and the only division series to feature repeat starting pitchers.
Best Games
T-4. Colby Lewis, Game 3
5 IP, 0 R, 2 H, 5 BB, 5 K, +.240 WPA

At the risk of offending Carson, it’s hard for me to say that Lewis pitched too well in game 3, mainly because of the five walks and seven total baserunners in only five innings. However, one can’t argue with the run total, and it’s because of the shutout innings in a tight game – 1-0 Rangers at the time of his exit – that Lewis received a +.240 WPA for his efforts.

T-4. C.J. Wilson, Game 2
6.1 IP, 0 R, 2 H, 7 K, 2 BB, +.240 WPA

This was a pretty fantastic start, but it gets overshadowed partly by the fact that the Rangers scored five runs behind Wilson and more by the fact that it followed the ridiculous starts by Cliff Lee, Roy Halladay, and Tim Lincecum. 6.1 scoreless innings with the stuff Wilson showed in this start deserves more credit than it received.

3. Carlos Pena, Game 3
2-3, HR, 2 R, 3 RBI, 2 BB, +.256 WPA

Pena struggled mightily against Cliff Lee in game 1 and didn’t see the field at all in game 2. The first baseman broke out in game three, reaching base four times, including a game tying RBI single off Darren Oliver in the seventh and then a two run homer in the ninth to put the Rays up four and knock the Rangers’ win expectancy all the way down to 2.0%.

2. Cliff Lee, Game 1
7 IP, 5 H, 1 HR, 1 R, 10 K, 0 BB, +.260 WPA

The first start of the postseason now seems pedestrian for Lee. The Rangers’ ace baffled the Rays for seven innings, with the only damage coming on a Ben Zobrist home run. As the Rangers managed to chip away off of David Price, scoring five runs by the time Lee left the game, Lee’s WPA isn’t terribly impressive, but don’t let that take away from this start.

1. Cliff Lee, Game 5
9 IP, 6 H, 1 R, 11 K, 0 BB, +.477 WPA

Take all the greatness of Lee’s first start. Now add two innings, a strikeout, and turn the run from a homer to one that the Rays were forced to manufacture. Finally, throw in that it clinched the Rangers’ first playoff series victory ever in a game that was played within two runs for the first eight innings, and you have easily the biggest performance of this ALDS.

Worst Games
T-5. Nelson Cruz, Game 3
1-4, HR, R, RBI, GIDP, -.142 WPA

Cruz’s home run was utterly meaningless, as it was a solo shot with the Rangers down 6-2 in the ninth inning (+.012 WPA) Far more important were his GIDP in the third inning with a 1-0 lead (-.072 WPA) and his inning ending lineout to SS in the sixth (-.065 WPA).

T-5. Darren Oliver, Game 3
1.1 IP, 3 H, 2 ER, 3 K, -.142 WPA

Oliver’s first inning went easily enough, as he worked around a Ben Zobrist double for a scoreless seventh. However, the Rays tagged the lefty in the eighth, as Dan Johnson roped a double off the wall and then Carlos Pena singled home the pinch runner Desmond Jennings. That allowed the Rays to get back into the game; when Oliver left, the Rays win expectancy was 50.1%.

4. Chad Qualls, Game 2
.1 IP, 4 H, 1 HR, 2 ER -.185 WPA

Qualls was thrust right into the fire in game two, replacing James Shields with two runners on. It appeared that Qualls had induced a swinging strikeout against Michael Young, but the umpires ruled that Young checked his swing. Young then proceeded to blast a three run home run that basically put the Rangers up for good, giving them a five run lead. Qualls couldn’t get anybody out after that either, ending with the four hits allowed in only a third of an inning.

3. Carl Crawford, Game 5
0-4, -.186 WPA

Crawford simply couldn’t produce in his last game as a member of the Tampa Bay Rays. He reached on two fielder’s choices, but each resulted in the force of the lead runner, once at second (-.030 WPA) and once, with two in scoring position in a tie game, at home plate (-.101 WPA).

2. David Price, Game 1
6.2 IP, 9 H, 2 HR, 4 R, 8 K, -.203

Price was dominant at times during his game one start, as evidenced by his eight strikeouts. However, the Rangers bats were able to get to Price for some big blasts, particularly including home runs by Bengie Molina and Nelson Cruz. With Cliff Lee dominating the Rays, the four runs given up by Price were even more costly, as the Rays had a huge hole to dig out of by the time Price left the game.

1. Neftali Feliz, Game 3
.1 IP, 2 H, 1 HR, 1 R, 1 BB

Ron Washington was scolded by many for not going to Netali Feliz in an important but non-save situation in game 1 of the ALCS. He did just that in the eighth inning of game 3, putting in Feliz with two outs and a runner on first in a tie game. Feliz couldn’t get the job done, though, as he walked Jason Bartlett and then allowed the go-ahead single off the bat of fellow rookie John Jaso. Feliz managed to finish the inning without allowing any more runs, but Carl Crawford chased him after opening the Rays’ half of the ninth with a solo home run. Feliz left the Rangers with a mere 8.2% win expectancy.

Best Series
Hitter: Ian Kinsler
8-18, 3 HR, 5 R, 6 RBI, 2 BB, +.451 WPA

Kinsler’s three home runs were key for the Rangers. His game two home run gave the Rangers a two run cushion against James Shields. In game three, Kinsler’s home run gave the Rangers a one run lead in the seventh inning and an inside track in a game that would eventually be blown by Neftali Feliz. In game five, his home run off Rafael Soriano in the ninth inning effectively dashed all hopes for the Rays.

Pitcher: Cliff Lee
16 IP, 11 H, 1 HR, 2 R, 21 K, 0 BB, +.737 WPA

Was there any question? His performances, as described above, were transcendent.

Worst Series
Hitter: Carl Crawford
3-21, HR, R, RBI, SB, 4 K, 0 BB, -.363 WPA

Crawford just was a non-factor in this series outside of his game three home run. It’s not that he was unclutch – he had a pLI under 1.0 in this series – he just couldn’t find a way to get on base. It’s unfortunate that his fantastic Rays’ career had to end this way, and Rays fans shouldn’t allow this series to be a legacy for Crawford.

Pitcher: Neftali Feliz
1.1 IP, 2 H, 1 HR, 1 R, 2 K, 3 BB, -.301 WPA

This was a pretty well pitched series for the most part, but young closer Neftali Feliz received only one high-leverage appearance and was poor in it, posting the worst game by WPA in the entire series, as detailed above.

Notables

Josh Hamilton: -.181 WPA
Nelson Cruz: +.022 WPA
Evan Longoria: -.059 WPA
Matt Garza: +.035 WPA
James Shields: -.045 WPA

Game Graphs

Game 1
Game 2
Game 3
Game 4
Game 5

Previous reviews: MIN/NYY

Let’s jump right in.

Best Games

5. Shane Victorino, Game 1
2-4, 2B, R, 2 RBI, SB, +.171 WPA

Victornio doubled and scored the Phillies first run of Edinson Volquez in the first inning and had a bases loaded single in the second to give the Phillies a 4-0 lead and an 87% win expectancy.

4. Jayson Werth, Game 2
2-4, 2 R, RBI, SB, BB, +.178 WPA

Werth was also part of the three run seventh, reaching on a fielder’s choice to third. He also had a walk, stolen base, and a run scored in the sixth and singled home an insurance run in the eighth.

3. Chase Utley, Game 2
2-4, 2 R, 2 RBI, SB, HBP, +.190 WPA

Utley had a 2 RBI bases loaded single in the bottom of the fifth to bring the Phillies within within two runs. Later, he was hit by a pitch to lead off the three run seventh which would give Philadelphia the game.

2. Roy Halladay, Game 1
9 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 8 K, 1 BB, +.323 WPA

Having the no-hitter at number two certainly seems off. It’s more easily explained when it can be complained to number one:

1. Cole Hamels, Game 3
9 IP, 5 H, 0 R, 9 K, 0 BB, +.608 WPA

In the eyes of WPA, these starts are both effectively the same: neither Halladay nor Hamels gave up a run, which is really what matters when it comes to winning games. Throw in the fact that the Phillies scored four runs behind Halladay and only put up two behind Hamels, and it’s pretty clear that Hamels throwing a complete game shutout was more important to the Phillies’ chances of winning than Halladay throwing a complete game shutout.

Obviously, Roy Halladay’s start was special, but it was special in a way not measured by WPA.

Worst Games

5. Placido Polanco, Game 2
0-5, -.145 WPA

Polanco couldn’t do anything against Bronson Arroyo nor the Reds’ relievers. The worst of his at-bats was a bases loaded groundout to end the fourth inning, leaving the Phillies down by one and stranding all three runners.

4. Roy Oswalt, Game 2
5 IP, 4 R, 3 ER, 5 K, BB, -.152 WPA

Oswalt didn’t pitch poorly, but all four of the runs he allowed were rendered even more costly by the fact that the Phillies offense couldn’t plate a run in the first five innings. When Oswalt left in the 5th inning, the Phillies win expectancy was all the way down to 12.5%.

3. Joey Votto, Game 3
0-4, K, GIDP, -.224 WPA

Pretty much the entire Reds team was flustered by Cole Hamels in Game 3, but Votto failed in one of the most important situations for the Reds. With the team down 1-0 in the bottom of the ninth, Votto grounded into a double play for a -.161 WPA, lowering the Reds win expectancy to 1.4% in what would be their final game.

2. Edinson Volquez, Game 1
1.2 IP, 4 H, 4 ER, 2 BB, -.267 WPA

Volquez imploded, throwing a ton of pitches without any results. He gave up four runs right out of the gate, setting up the Phillies and Roy Halladay for a historic NLDS game 1.

1. Aroldis Chapman, Game 2
.2 IP, 2 H, 3 R, 0 ER, K, -.506 WPA

Here we see one of the flaws with our implementation of WPA – with the data available to us, it’s essentially impossible to integrate defense into WPA. The big play in Chapman’s outing in game 2 was the line drive by Jimmy Rollins which found its way past Jay Bruce. Now, Rollins hit the ball hard and deserves some credit for that, but Chapman also did his job in the sense that the ball was well within the range of one of his fielders. Still, there’s no denying that the Phillies scored three runs off Chapman in a late and close game situation, and for that Chapman takes the big blow according to WPA.

Best Series
Hitter: Chase Utley, +.260 WPA
3-11, HR, 3 R, 4 RBI

This wasn’t much of a series for hitters, and so we see somebody who made nine outs in 13 plate appearances take home the overall WPA crown for the series. Utley made it count when he reached and when he put the ball in play.

PITCHER: Cole Hamels, +.608 WPA
9 IP, 0 ER, 9 K

See above.

Worst Series
Hitter: Joey Votto, -.237 WPA
1-10, RBI

Simply an atrocious series for the likely NL MVP. Much of this came from that final game in which he was completely stymied by Hamels, but he couldn’t exactly put a game together against Halladay or Oswalt either.

Pitcher: Aroldis Chapman, -.490 WPA

See above; this comes from the poor (and unlucky) game 2 outing and a meaningless 1 IP outing in game 3.

Notables
Brandon Phillips: +.111, Top Cincinnati hitter
Bronson Arroyo: +.116, Top Cincinnati pitcher
Ryan Howard: -.074
Jimmy Rollins: +.156

Game Graphs:
Game 1
Game 2
Game 3

With the League Championship Series already in full swing for both leagues, last week’s Divisional Series may already be an afterthought. Luckily, we’re here to refresh your memory with a WPA review of all of the series, with the bests, the worsts, and some other notables.

WPA is the ultimate story statistic, taking into account every bit of context about the game as it can. You can check out our glossary entry on WPA here as well as the ever excellent Saber Library’s take here.

Best Games
5. Danny Valencia, Game 1
1-3, BB, RBI, +.219 WPA

Not a terribly impressive line, but context is everything. Valencia struck out swinging twice, but with bases empty and at least one out each time, none mattered much. His walk in the sixth tied the game, and his single in the eighth brought the go-ahead run to the plate with only one out.

4. Mariano Rivera, Game 1
1.1 IP, H, SV, +.237

If there’s ever a time to go to the ace reliever, it was when Joe Girardi went to Mariano Rivera in the bottom of the eighth in Game 1. Rivera entered with a two run lead and two outs but with two runners in scoring position. The Leverage Index sat at a whopping 4.25, and Rivera easily shut the door, retiring four of his five batters faced (including a questionable call on a Delmon Young single).

3. Mark Teixeira, Game 1
2-5, 2 R, HR, 2 RBI, +.274 WPA

Teixeira had the big blow in the initial game, as his two-run tiebreaking home run in the 7th inning turned out to be the difference. That home run gave the Yankees a 78.5% win expectancy, and the bullpen did the rest.

2. Lance Berkman, Game 2
2-4, 2 R, HR, 2 RBI, +.292 WPA

Berkman gave the Yankees the lead on two separate occasions, breaking an early 1-1 tie with a solo HR (+.135) and putting the Yankees up for good in the 7th with an RBI double (+.192), with the latter giving the Yankees a 75% win expectancy late in the game.

1. Phil Hughes, Game 3
7 IP, 0 R, 6 K, 1 BB, +.294 WPA

Hughes put up the best pitching performance in the series, shutting out the Twins as counterpart Brian Duensing gave up the runs which would allow the Yankees to clinch the series.

Worst Games
5. Brian Duensing, Game 3
3.1 IP, 7 H, 5 ER, 1 K, 1 BB, -.182 WPA

Duensing got hit around by the Yankees, including a homer off the bat of Marcus Thames which effectively ended the Twins hopes. When Duensing exited, the Twins win expectancy was a mere 9.6%

4. Nick Swisher, Game 2
1-4, 0 R, 0 RBI,

Seems like a relatively neutral game for Swisher, but he was unclutch in game 2. He grounded into a double play to end the fourth in a tie game (-.138) and grounded out to end a threat up by two runs in the sixth (-.059).

3. Francisco Liriano, Game 1
5.2 IP, 6 H, 4 ER, 7 K, 3 BB, -.225 WPA

Liriano pitched extremely well for the first five innings, but couldn’t carry it through the sixth. The Yankees tallied four runs in that fateful inning, knocking the Twins win expectancy from 85.1% down to 36.5% by the time Liriano was pulled from the game.

2. Carl Pavano, Game 2
6 IP, 10 H, 4 ER, 3 K, 1 BB, -.264 WPA

Pavano didn’t actually pitch that terribly, but like Liriano and Duensing, the Yankees got plenty of hits off of him and that was enough to give them a lead. The Twins offense didn’t give either of their starters any leeway, and as a result they look like goats here.

1. Jesse Crain, Game 1
0.1 IP, HR, 2 R, -.303 WPA

Crain gave up the Teixeira home run which ended up deciding game 1, which turned out to be the single biggest pitch of the series. This was Crain’s only appearance in the ALDS, and as such he compiled the lowest WPA of any player despite only being involved in four plate appearances.

Best Overall Series

Hitter: Curtis Granderson
5-11, 2B, 3B, 2 R, 3 RBI, +.310 WPA

Granderson was Mr. Clutch for the Yankees. He plated the tying run in the 5th inning of game 1 with a triple worth +.298 WPA and also had a double and scored a run to start the scoring in Game 2.

Pitcher: Mariano Rivera:
3.1 IP, 2 H, 1 K, 0 R, 2 SV, +.293 WPA

The big game for Rivera was, as mentioned above, in Game 1, and he had relatively inconsequential appearances in game 2 (a three run save) and game 3. In true Rivera fashion, he did not allow a run in the series, shattering bats as he worked.

Worst Series

Hitter: Nick Swisher
4-13, 2B, HR, 3 R, RBI, -.257 WPA

That hardly looks like a bad line, but Swisher was bad in big spots, like the plays mentioned above, and was good in meaningless spots. His HR came up 6-0 and the double came with nobody on and two men out with the lead already in hand.

Pitcher: Jesse Crain
0.1 IP, HR, 2 R, -.303 WPA

See above.

Notables

Yankees:
CC Sabathia: -.179 WPA in game 1
Derek Jeter: -.005 WPA in series
Alex Rodriguez: -.093 WPA in series

Twins:
All three starters in bottom 5 single-game WPA
Denard Span: worst Twin hitter, -.213 WPA
Jon Rauch: best Twin pitcher, +.127 WPA
Joe Mauer: -.060 WPA in series, best WPA score of +.017
Jim Thome: -.110 WPA in series, no positive WPA games.

Links to all game pages:
Game 1
Game 2
Game 3

Between Scott Rolen, Brandon Phillips, and (mostly) Joey Votto, the Reds formed one of the best infields in Major League Baseball this season. Their cumulative performance – 16.4 WAR – ranks higher than all starting infields in the National League.

And that’s without including a shortstop. The Reds weren’t slouches at the position at all in 2010, as their shortstops combined to post 2.5 WAR. The majority of that comes from starter Orlando Cabrera, who posted 1.3 WAR this season. He didn’t do much with the stick (.292 wOBA), but his glove was a solid +3.7 UZR, consistent with a good defensive reputation and a career +45 UZR.

However, Cabrera will turn 36 in November. He suffered injuries toward the end of the season and compiled fewer than 600 plate appearances for the first time since 2005, and was removed from a playoff game due to yet another injury in the Reds’ playoff loss to Philadelphia. Now, the Reds will have to decide whether to keep him around, as Cabrera’s contract includes a $4 million mutual option for the 2011 season.

Cabrera’s poor stick, recent injuries, and moderate price tag may be enough of a reason for the Reds to decline the option and pay the $1 million buyout. If not, Paul Janish should be. Janish has posted 2.0 WAR in his first two significant stints in the Major Leagues. His bat hasn’t been anything stellar, but since his disastrous first stint in 2007 (42 wRC+ in 89 PAs), Janish has shown moderate patience and good contact. He doesn’t have much pop, and some bad luck and a fly ball heavy batted ball profile has led to low BABIPs. It is those two factors which have largely driven his poor batting lines to date.

Between 2009 and 2010, Janish compiled -15 batting runs, and that’s with a BABIP in the .260s. Despite his issues with fly balls, it’s hard to imagine Janish will continue to have such poor results on balls in play. His .260/.338/.385 line in 2010 appears to be pretty representative of Janish’s abilities, although probably with a SLG closer to .360. His minor league numbers are poor, but the two parts of his game that have played the best in the majors – walk rate and contact rate – are the quickest to stabilize. 600 plate appearances still isn’t a huge sample, but for both statistics it is above the reliability thresholds stated here.

His bat probably only plays at shortstop, but that’s not a problem for Janish. According to Baseball America, Janish has “nearly flawless footwork, soft hands and a plus arm.” UZR was insane over Janish in 2009, rating him at +11 in only half a season. That seems outrageous, but DRS and TZL nearly completely agree. He wasn’t quite as impressive in 2010, possibly due to splitting time between SS and 3B in the small sample, but he was still above average. Overall, Janish has a +12 UZR at shortstop that is supported, much like Cabrera, by a strong defensive reputation.

If Janish puts up a .260/.330/.350 line, as I think he will, he’ll need to be about a +5 SS to be an average player. This may be a slightly optimistic prediction, but there’s a very good chance that Janish will be close enough to league average that he would outplay Cabrera over a full season. The Reds should be able to find a Craig Counsell-type player to back up Janish for peanuts. Between Janish and that backup, the Reds should easily be able to replicated the production they got from the shortstop position last season at a fraction of the cost.

As the San Francisco Giants interrupted their celebrations on Monday night to honor the end of Bobby Cox‘s managerial career, the entire baseball world knew it was seeing the end of an era. In 29 seasons – 25 with Atlanta and four with Toronto – Cox won a whopping 2504 of his 4508 Major League games. That figure ranks 4th all-time, behind only Hall of Famers Connie Mack and John McGraw as well as Hall of Fame lock Tony La Russa. Cox also reached a record 16 postseasons, in front of Joe Torre’s 15 and La Russa’s 13. Some would claim that only winning one World Series championship (in 1995) is a black mark for Cox, but I believe that the display of pennants here at Turner Field speaks for itself:

As Cox leaves baseball behind, the Braves will look to continue the run of success achieved under his guidance. They will turn to a former third base coach under Cox and previous Florida Marlins manager Fredi Gonzalez. Gonzalez, 46, has been managing and coaching between the minors and majors since 1990. He earned his first and only prior MLB managerial position in 2007 with Florida, where he remained for three and a half seasons. Gonzalez made it just over 10% of the way to Cox’s win total, compiling a 276-279 record with the Marlins. Gonzalez’s Marlins generally showcased talent but with a limited budget, they couldn’t quite break through in the National League East.

The Marlins fired Gonzalez in June of 2010 in a move that was generally seen as a surprise, even in the Marlins’ clubhouse. Gonzalez had done a decent job with shallow teams. He had also shown an ability to handle a clubhouse, particularly through his careful diffusing of a rift with Hanley Ramirez after the shortstop was benched for lazily pursuing a ball in the outfield in May. Marlins executive Larry Beinfest was extremely vague in his explanation, claiming that the organization “got concerned something was missing.” For whatever reasons, the Marlins decided to move on, replacing Gonzalez with interim manager Edwin Rodriguez.

Gonzalez’s reunion with the Braves was predictable from the start. In the MLB.com article linked above, Braves superstar Chipper Jones declared that everybody in Atlanta “would love to have Fredi back” and that “he knows how things work” around the Braves. Apparently (and unsurprisingly), Jones and the front office were on the same page.

The Braves are coming off a solid season in which they showcased some fantastic young talent, such as Rookie of the Year candidate Jason Heyward and young starter Tommy Hanson. Personally, I think it’s extraordinarily difficult to properly evaluate managers from any point of view, much less from outside an organization, but Gonzalez appears to have a good reputation. With the situation that Cox has left in Atlanta, the playoffs should be a possibility for the near future. Expectations will be high of Gonzalez, as typically happens when a legend is replaced, but the new manager, and more importantly, his talented players, should be up to the task.

With their 5-1 loss at the hands of the Texas Rangers last night, the Tampa Bay Rays 2010 season came to an end. The Rays once again fielded a highly talented team, and although the end result wasn’t a championship, 96 wins and an AL East championship should be viewed as a successful season. But the Rays are a team with an unfortunate financial situation and a stadium which isn’t about to help that anytime soon. Now, after three relatively successful seasons and two playoff appearances, we are forced to ask the question of whether Tampa can sustain this kind of success going forward.

Clearly, the Rays have assembled a vast array of talent on their roster, but in the age of free agency, it’s difficult to hold such units together for an extended period of time. This inevitability will strike the Rays this winter, as they will lose many key players to free agency. This list includes:

Carl Crawford (6.9 WAR)
Carlos Pena (1.0 WAR, 6.8 WAR in 2008 + 2009)
Rafael Soriano (1.7 WAR, +5.0 WPA)
Randy Choate (0.5 WAR as LOOGY)
Grant Balfour (1.2 WAR)

Obviously, the key loss here is Crawford, but Soriano and Pena are both good players. Balfour and Choate both contributed to a solid bullpen as well. These players contributed over 10 WAR last season. In the hypercompetitive American League East, a ten win drop could easily push the Rays from the division lead to seven games behind the Wild Card at the end of the season. Even considering that the players that will take their place should be talented – the Rays were one of the deepest teams in the league last season – the Rays will likely drop at least 5 or 6 wins. With the Yankees strong as ever and the Red Sox looking to recover from an injury plagued year, that might be enough to hold Tampa out of the playoffs.

The Rays have also confirmed that the payroll will drop significantly after this season. That means players entering their later arbitration years such as Matt Garza and B.J. Upton could hit the trade market in an attempt to lower costs, only adding to the loss of players through free agency.

The Rays do have some assets ready to take the places of those who will exit, as their minor league system is in great shape. Desmond Jennings, who saw some action in the latter half of the season as well as the playoffs, is the heir apparent to Carl Crawford and shows that same kind of athleticism in the outfield. Jeremy Hellickson’s debut showed that he should be more than ready for a spot in the Major League rotation. The Rays have three other five-star prospects, according to Baseball Prospectus’s Kevin Goldstein and six others above a three-star ranking, showcasing the depth of the Rays’ system.

At least immediately, though, the young potential stars in the system aren’t going to be able to make up for the players who are outgoing. The loss of those players, the budgetary constraints that they will face, and the division that they are in will provide a mammoth challenge in the coming years. There’s too much still in place to call the championship window closed, and the Rays are loaded with talent both on and off the field. Still, the deck is stacked against them, and a return to the postseason will be difficult to attain.

On October 6th, the St. Louis Cardinals picked up Albert Pujols’s $16 million dollar option. Perhaps it’s because of the playoffs that this move went relatively unnoticed and unheralded, perhaps it’s simply because this move is the most obvious move in the history of baseball operations. That’s not particularly noteworthy on its face, but what is important is that this signifies the last season of Pujols’s current contract, meaning that barring a midseason deal, Albert Pujols will be a free agent after next season.

The greatness of Albert Pujols’s career to date can hardly be overstated by any metric. He has been in the league now for 10 seasons. In each season, he’s posted at least a .300 batting average, 30 home runs, and 100 RBIs. He hasn’t had an on-base percentage below .394 nor a slugging percentage below .561. He’s never posted a wOBA below .400. His UZR has only been below average once (before his move to first base). His 80.6 career Wins Above Replacement ranks 43rd all-time among position players, just below Johnny Bench and Reggie Jackson and just above Rod Carew and Dan Brouthers. His career path is extraordinary even for the extraordinary, as the following graph shows.

[Click to embiggen]

Pujols isn’t quite Ruthian, but with the radical changes to baseball’s landscape since the days of the Babe, that’s a given. Pujols’s career path to this point actually betters that of the most recent superstar, Barry Bonds. To find his best comparables through age 30, we have to reach back to the 1960s and 1970s, to two fantastic outfielders in Hank Aaron and Willie Mays. Pujols’s career path so far tracks the career paths of Aaron and Mays (not pictured but nearly identical) almost perfectly. Aaron and Mays are the best non-Ruth players of the live-ball era, at least according to our implementation of WAR. One could argue the order, but there is no doubt that those are four of the best players ever to play in a Major League stadium. Albert Pujols, through age 30, is right on that level.

We saw a player of this kind of stature reach free agency merely a few months ago in the NBA, when LeBron James created a media frenzy surrounding his free agency and eventual departure from the Cleveland Cavaliers to join a “superteam” in Miami. James’s free agency was anticipated for years by NBA media and fans. Albert Pujols’s impending free agency is an important topic of conversation among those in the know, Part of that is probably due to the culture of the leagues. Baseball doesn’t advertise its players to nearly the level that the NBA does, with players like James and Michael Jordan earning loads of money through endorsement and creating media empires. That’s not to say that Pujols or other MLB players don’t endorse – obviously, that’s not the case – but individual players clearly aren’t as big of a selling point for the MLB as they are in the NBA, and Albert Pujols is definitely nowhere near the personality that LeBron James is.

Pujols’s decision can impact the competitive balance in the MLB in much as James’s decision has shifted power in the NBA. The Cardinals have a tremendous amount of resources tied up in just a few players right now, resulting in a top-heavy roster. The greatness of Pujols allows this model to succeed, whereas with a team like the Astros, it will fail. Without Pujols, that model will likely fail the Cardinals much as it figures to fail the NBA’s Cavaliers this season. Meanwhile, Albert and his agent will have every single team lining up to add the ultimate roster booster. If Pujols does indeed become a free agent, realize that it isn’t normal. Players this good become free agents maybe once a decade.

With New York’s 3-0 sweep of Minnesota in the American League Division Series, we see yet another failed attempt of the plucky, small-market Twins to take down the Evil Empire. This marks the fourth time since 2003 that the Twins have fallen to the Yankees in the ALDS, with three of those coming in the form of a sweep. This is leading to worries (or in some cases, gloating) about the seemingly impenetrable wall the Yankees are for the Twins when it comes to the playoffs. FanHouse’s Lisa Olson’s headline says it all – the Twins “wilt in New York again.” Tom Powers of the St. Paul Pioneer Press says that the Twins “need to add attitude.” Mark Viera of the New York Times discusses how this trend defies explanation and refers to a seeming “mental block” which faces the Twins in these situations.

To be clear, when we are talking about the Twins having lost four straight division series to the Yankees, we’re talking about the 2003 Twins losing to the 2003 Yankees, the 2004 Twins losing to the 2004 Yankees, and so on. Precious little holds these teams together as the years go on. Players leave, players enter. Management changes. The only true constant is the name of the team, and even in the cases of franchises like the Expos and the old Senators, that doesn’t even hold.

Even going year to year, we see some pretty significant changes. From 2003 to 2004, the Twins added Justin Morneau and made Michael Cuddyer a starter, replacing Luis Rivas and Doug Mientkiewicz. The Yankees only common starting pitcher in the 2003 and 2004 ALDS was Mike Mussina. Even with just the turnover from one season, we can see drastically different products taking the fields. Similarly, the 2009 Twins gave multiple playoff PAs to Brendan Harris, Matt Tolbert, Orlando Cabrera and Nick Punto. Those PAs went to J.J. Hardy, Danny Valencia, Jim Thome, and Orlando Hudson this season. The Yankees got a start out of Phil Hughes and three appearances out of Kerry Wood, neither of which would have even been considered possible in the 2009 playoffs.

This gap gets even larger when we skip ahead from 2004 to 2009. Of Twins position players, only Jason Kubel and Michael Cuddyer played on both sides of the gap in the postseason (Morneau also missed the ’09 ALDS), and only Jesse Crain and the injured Joe Nathan cross that gap as pitchers. The Yankees have a tad more continuity, with the “Core Four” of Jorge Posada, Derek Jeter, Andy Pettitte, and Mariano Rivera playing in at least one part of each pair of series. Still, one can hardly claim that the 2010 Yankees and the 2004 Yankees are a very similar team, as nearly every position, rotation slot, and bullpen chair is filled with a new body.

For me, that’s what makes this whole idea of there being some mystical explanation for the struggles of the Minnesota-based American League franchise against the New York-based American League franchise in the playoffs so silly. Yes, both teams have remained in the same city and still are called by the same team names. But they don’t have the same players, neither of them plays in the same park, and the Twins don’t even wear the same uniforms anymore. The Twins still have Ron Gardenhire but have seen the keys to the front office pass from Terry Ryan to Bill Smith; the Yankees have gone from Joe Torre to Joe Girardi and have seen the team pass from George Steinbrenner to Hank and Hal. The Twins are no longer a small-market team, and the Yankees payroll now is merely roughly twice that of the Twins, whereas New York was paying three to four times as much for its on field product seven years ago.

Maybe there is a case, particularly given the type of attitude that surrounds the Twins, that change at the manager position is needed. Will McDonald of Royals Review presents this case, mainly behind the argument that Gardenhire is now the face behind the Twins postseason failure. He is one of the few constants across these series.

However, similarly to McDonald, I don’t think that Gardenhire is really the issue or even necessarily an issue for Minnesota. There are two other constants here besides Gardenhire. Firstly – and we experience this nearly every day during the playoffs – anything can happen in any individual game or any individual series. Secondly, the Yankees have just been a better team each time. I had myself convinced that maybe, just maybe, the Twins were nearly equal in talent this year, but there’s a reason that the Yankees finished with seven more third order wins than the Twins this year, and that was before the Yankees managed to jettison Javier Vazquez and A.J. Burnett from their rotation.

This whole question of why the Twins just can’t beat the Yankees just doesn’t seem to be something worth our time. We’re talking about four different teams who have lost to four different superior teams over the course of seven years. To me, at least, that doesn’t even seem like something that special. However, because we’re talking about a “small-market darling” against the franchise with the most resources, we seem to be finding ourselves asking for some sort of overarching, metaphysical reason. The real answer, I suspect, is nowhere near that complicated.