Quick answer: sort of.

In 2008, Ervin Santana had a fantastic season. He struck out nearly a batter per inning and walked fewer than two per nine. He sustained this performance for a remarkable 219 innings, amassing 5.8 wins in the process, with his FIP, xFIP, and ERA all under 3.55.

Last year was not so kind, as he was worse in every facet of the game. The major culprit behind this descent was a nearly two MPH drop in fastball velocity, from 94.4 to 92.2. In 2007, as well, Santana posted a 92.2 average fastball velocity and struggled mightily. In both 2007 and 2009, Santana posted FIPs above 5.00 and xFIPs above 4.60.

Santana’s results have been fantastic so far, as he has a 3.29 ERA in 82 innings. His peripheral numbers are improved as well. Strikeouts are up, walks and home runs are down. However, neither of these numbers are at the point at which we would expect such a low ERA; his FIP is 4.36 and his xFIP only slightly better at 4.19.

The fastball velocity which Santana showed in 2008 simply isn’t back. Santana’s fastballs in 2010 have averaged 92.7 MPH, still nearly 2 MPH below their 2008 mark. It appears that he is making up for this lack of velocity with deception. Batters are swinging at far more pitches outside of the zone (30.2% vs. 25.8%) and far fewer pitches inside it (57.9% vs. 64.4%). Naturally, hitters’ contact percentage is far worse outside of the zone, and so Santana is drawing slightly more swings and misses. Presumably, these pitches chased out of the zone, which are still contacted just over half the time, are not hit as well as those in the zone, which could also be contributing to Santana’s success, particularly with regards to his decreased home run rate.

He’s still not drawing ground balls, and so he will be limited by a prevalence for the home run ball going forward. Still, even if his ERA reverts to the levels that his advanced metrics would suggest, he will be a productive, average or slightly above starting pitcher. Santana will likely never be the pitcher that he was in 2008 without that upper tier velocity, but he’s showing this season that he can still be effective without it.

Around baseball, and sabermetric circles in particular, Nyjer Morgan is best known for his stellar defense. However, because of his incredible speed, he’s also known for his ability to steal bases. After stealing a whopping 42 bases between Pittsburgh and Washington last season, Morgan’s name would be a priority among fantasy circles for those elusive steals. He has 12 steals in 56 games this season, which would put him on a pace for a mid-30s total, which could see an increase if his OBP can rebound up to the .351 mark he posted last year.

However, Morgan has also already been caught stealing a league leading nine times, and picked off another four. That makes 13 total outs on the bases against only 12 advancements. Ten of the steals and all of the caught stealings have came at second, and the other two steals have came at third.

Overall, this is simply terrible production from a player who is supposed to be a major asset on the bases. According to EQSBR, Baseball Prospectus’s statistic for measuring runs created from steals, Morgan has been the worst runner on the Nationals and the second worst to the Padres Nick Hundley, who hasn’t successfully stolen a base yet and has made five outs on the bases.

Obviously, Nyjer Morgan is a much better base stealer than Hundley and likely most of the league. However, somebody who is going to be caught stealing or picked off on 13 of their 25 opportunities should not be running 25 times. Either Morgan has been very unlucky, or he’s picking poor spots to run. He also appears to have a serious problem with pickoffs, as he was picked off a whopping nine times in 2009, making his 42:17 SB:CS ratio much less impressive.

This doubly hurts the Nationals, as Morgan is fantastic at taking the extra base. This season, he’s been worth roughly +.6 runs on the non-SB components of EQBRR, BPro’s overarching baserunning metric. Last season, he was roughly +2.5 runs.

Morgan’s excellent speed is not debatable, but right now he’s not using it optimally on the bases. If he can’t find a way to be more successful in his steal attempts, he and the Nationals must reduce his number of attempts. If they don’t, and Morgan keeps running into outs, it will simply be a waste of a large asset on offense.

It’s just been that kind of a season for Chad Qualls. He still has a 92+ MPH fastball, and he still has a biting 86 MPH slider. He’s still inducing over 50% ground balls. He’s walking fewer than three batters per nine innings and his 9.15 K/9 is a career high.

Despite all of this, Chad Qualls’s ERA was at 6.86 entering last night’s appearance against the Atlanta Braves.

Qualls had been the baseball embodiment of Murphy’s Law this season. Entering last night’s game, his excellent peripherals had his FIP at 3.97 and his xFIP at 3.23. When we look at some of the luck indicating statistics, we see where the disaster has originated. His HR/FB rate was sitting at 16.7%, but that’s not terribly surprising given a 13.5% career rate. After that, things start getting ridiculous. Qualls had only managed to strand 54.9% of baserunners. Despite a typical batted ball profile – 19.4 LD%, 53.7% FB, 26.9 GB% – his BABIP was a lofty .441.

Interestingly enough, last night’s appearance, a save in a 7-4 Diamondbacks victory was an outing in which Qualls threw only 11 of his 27 pitches for strikes and walked the bases loaded. He only managed to escape due to two ground outs, including a double play ball off the bat of Yunel Escobar to end the game. Perhaps this is the beginning of some regression for Qualls. The two ground outs lowered his BABIP all the way to .429. His LOB% skyrocketed to 58.7% after stranding the bases loaded.

Despite this outing, Qualls has still had terrible results this season. Whether it’s the 19 runs allowed in just over 20 innings, or the four blown saves, or the equal number of shutdowns and meltdowns (6 each), or the -1.59 total WPA. He was on the verge of yet another meltdown last night. The fact that Qualls still has excellent peripherals likely offers little consolation to Diamondbacks fans, who have seen their team utterly waste one of the league’s highest octane offenses because of a bullpen that can’t shut the door. Unfortunately for the Diamondbacks, this is just one of the issues that a team faces when attempting to build a bullpen: even when you do everything right, it can all still go horribly wrong.

Carlos Silva continued his improbable run today with yet another solid performance, this time a seven inning, one run outing against the Pittsburgh Pirates. Silva struck out five and only walked one batter while inducing 10 ground balls in 20 balls in play, continuing from the template that made him a successful pitcher in 2004, 2005, and 2007: no walks and a healthy dose of ground balls.

Today’s start was yet another example in just how different Carlos Silva is pitching now compared to the rest of his career. Of course, the results have been much, much better this year than in the rrecent past, but instead I’m referring to how he is using his pitches.

Silva threw 102 pitches in today’s start, 55 of which were classified by Brooks Baseball’s Pitch F/X Tool as either fastballs or sinkers. Both pitches have very similar spin, movement, and velocity, so I think it would be fair to denote all 55 as “fastballs.” With that clarified, 53.9% of Silva’s pitches today were fastballs, well in line with his 57% fastball rate this season. That’s a stark change from the rest of his career. Silva never had a fastball rate lower than 68% entering this season, and in four separate seasons he used his fastball over 80% of the time, including his disastrous 2009 season.

It’s not terribly surprising, then, that his strikeouts have risen to above 6 K/9. Even with below average secondary stuff, the addition of more changeups and sliders is certain to increase the amount of whiffs. This change is likely the agent behind a nearly 3 point jump in swinging strike rate from his career mark. In particular, it’s his changeup which has been fantastic this season. It has been a strike over 70% of the time, and even though it’s nothing special in terms of whiff rate (12.4% vs. 12.63% average), it still manages to get outs, as the pitch had a +8.8 pitch type linear weights value entering play today. Brooks Baseball had it as excellent once again today, with a +2.2 mark.

It certainly appears that a big part of Silva’s rebirth can be attributed to this change in pitching style. Given Silva’s poor fastball, never breaking an average velocity of 92 since his rookie season, it’s surprising that it took this long to move away from it. Regardless, this shift has once again made Silva a major league pitcher. I would expect Silva’s numbers to fall a little as hitters begin to adjust to this new style, but as long as Silva continues to avoid walks and strike out more batters than ever, he will continue to enjoy success at the major league level.

Fausto Carmona’s descent is well known. He had a 4.2 WAR season in 2007, thanks to a 2.55 BB/9 and a miniscule 0.67 HR/9. Even though that sounds like he may have had some luck with regards to home runs, xFIP would disagree, as he had a 3.88 xFIP against a 3.94 FIP. Carmona had the perfect formula for a low strikeout pitcher: keep runners off the bases and throw a ton of ground balls, as he posted a ridiculous 64.3% ground ball rate that season.

Carmona couldn’t keep the walks down in 2008, as he walked nearly twice as many batters on a per inning basis. The ground ball rate was still high, at 63.5%, which was the only thing keeping him above replacement level, as he posted a K/BB well below 1.00. The 2009 season was equally as bad, as an increase in strikeouts wasn’t enough to counteract a drop in ground ball rates. Both seasons saw xFIPs around 5.00 and FIPs in the same range.

This season, Carmona is having what appears to be a rebirth, as he’s running a 3.53 ERA through his first 11 starts. Looking slightly deeper, we see a similar K/BB rate to Carmona’s great 2007, but the ground ball rate just isn’t there any more. Still, with a ground ball rate as high as Carmona still runs, like his 56.2% rate this season, even a little luck can turn a mediocre season (4.18 FIP, 4.59 xFIP).

Those advanced metrics suggest that Carmona is back in the sense that he’s a Major League quality starting pitcher again, but he’s by no means an ace or even a number two. That shouldn’t be terribly surprising, as he simply doesn’t have strikeout stuff, and it’s very hard to be consistently successful in the major leagues when contact is made as consistently as it is against Carmona. Still, he also proves that a pitcher with a high ground ball rate can be very useful.

Carmona is under contract for the 2011 season at $6.1 million and then the Indians hold $7M, $9M, and $12M club options for the next three years. Even though Carmona isn’t an elite pitcher, the market for starting pitching can be thin, and $6.1 million for an average or even slightly below average starting pitcher isn’t a bad deal. Either Carmona wears out his usefulness by 2012, or the Indians can play the market for the next few years and see if he still fits into their plans.

Are you an NL Central fan? Did you just happen to go into a coma on May 21st? Don’t worry. You didn’t miss much.

Here are the NL Central standings on that date.

STL 25-18 —
CIN 24-18 0.5
CHN 19-24 6.0
PIT 18-24 6.5
MIL 16-26 8.5
HOU 15-27 9.5

Since then, each team has played no worse than 4-7 and no better than 7-5. Now, it’s June 4th, and the standings have hardly shifted.

STL 31-23 —
CIN 31-23 —
CHC 24-29 6.5
PIT 22-30 8.5
MIL 22-31 9.0
HOU 20-34 11.0

The Reds picked up a half game on the Cardinals to tie the division race, and the Pirates and Astros have fallen even farther back. Other than that, the situation is effectively identical to what it was two weeks ago.

This news is best for the Cardinals. They are the most talented team in the division, although there are some questions about their rotation now that Kyle Lohse is out for a while after having surgery on his right forearm. Still, the presence of Albert Pujols, Matt Holliday, Colby Rasmus, Yadier Molina, and the rest of the Cardinals lineup has to give them the upper hand for the rest of the season, and any rotation with a healthy Adam Wainwright and Chris Carpenter can only have so many questions.

The Reds certainly benefit from the stagnation of the rest of these teams, although it would’ve been the perfect time for them to put some distance between them and the Cardinals. The Reds pitching staff hasn’t been great, and they’re not a great defensive team, but they can hit. Joey Votto leads the NL with a .427 wOBA and Scott Rolen is having a remarkable late-career season with a .394 wOBA. As long as the bats stay as hot as they have been, the Reds will be contenders for the division, and even if the Cardinals start to pull away, they have put themselves in a fantastic position for the wild card.

This two week stretch may not look like it’s killed the rest of the division, but it has. When not one but two division foes build up a big lead, time is of the essence, and now instead of having 120 games to make up an early deficit, Chicago, Pittsburgh, Milwaukee, and Houston now only have 108 games. Given the talent present on these rosters, particularly those in Houston and Pittsburgh, this stretch may even have been the nail in the coffin, as expecting poor teams to make up 6+ game gaps in only four months is unrealistic at best. Nothing is definitively over, at least, but the playoff odds for these teams are sitting in the low single digits at this point, and potentially reaching into the decimals.

Even if the “GB” column doesn’t show it, the last two weeks have done nothing but help the Cardinals and Reds. The NL Central is set up as a two team race now, with the loser having a great shot at the wild card. It should create some exciting games this September while the other four teams are forced to plan for the future.

As of this writing, the leader in the clubhouse for today’s FanGraphs Stars of the Game for this afternoon’s Athletics/Red Sox game is closer Andrew Bailey, who recorded a six out save, coming in with runners on first and second, nobody out, in a two run game. Bailey posted a +.418 WPA for his efforts, more than doubling teammate Kurt Suzuki’s +.190 day despite his two home runs.

OK, so the reason that Bailey is ahead of Suzuki is likely because I’m the only one that had voted at the time, but Bailey’s performance is still noteworthy. The A’s were already deep into their bullpen, having already used Vin Mazzaro, Brad Ziegler, and Jerry Blevins due to the injury shortened start by Brett Anderson. With Blevins in trouble, and already having allowed a home run to Marco Scutaro, Oakland manager Bob Geren sprang into action, going to his closer with six long outs left to get.

The situation, runners on first and second, nobody out, and a two run lead, has a 4.16 leverage index. This is exactly the time that the manager should be calling on his closer. The Red Sox win probability was approaching 40%. The meat of the Red Sox lineup, in the form of Kevin Youkilis, Adrian Beltre, and David Ortiz, was coming up, in effect making the leverage higher than the 4.16 reported. If there is any time for the best pitcher to enter the game, it is that situation.

Bailey induced flyouts from Youkilis and Beltre and struck Ortiz out swinging. That inning alone reduced the Red Sox win probability from 39.3% to 8.8%. Bailey would then go out for the ninth to complete the save. He got into a little trouble, thanks to a solo home run from Bill Hall, but he managed to record the final six outs, adding another +.133 WPA. Overall, Bailey would end with a +.418 WPA, a game high.

The decision by Bob Geren to bring his best reliever into the game at the most important time in the game should be one that is seen more often. The closer, or relief ace, or whatever it is called, is useless if he remains in the bullpen as a lesser pitcher blows the lead. Today, Geren decided to use Andrew Bailey when it mattered, and he was rewarded with a victory.

Of course Ken Griffey Jr. is going to be a Hall of Famer. He’s going to be a first ballot hall of famer at that, and deservedly so. “The Kid” was among the best in Major League Baseball throughout the 1990s, putting up one of the best decades that the game has ever seen.

Griffey broke into the bigs at age 19 and never looked back. He posted a ridiculous 7.1 WAR before he could legally drink. By then, he was a legitimate MVP candidate year in and year out. From 1990-2000, Griffey hit 382 home runs (including four league leads), compiled a line of .302/.384/.581 and was 69 runs above average in center field, according to TotalZone.

His 1996 and 1997 seasons are both among the great individual performances in major league history. In 1996, Griffey was the original Franklin Gutierrez, posting a ridiculous +32 TotalZone in Center Field. He would supplement that mark at the plate with a .303/.392/.628 line, good for a .427 wOBA. The overall result was one of the few 10 WAR seasons of the decade, coming in at 10.2 WAR. He nearly managed it twice in a row, as in 1997 he nearly duplicated his 1996 hitting line with a 56 HR, .304/.382/.646, .424 wOBA season. The fielding numbers weren’t quite there, but were still fantastic at +15, leading to a 9.4 WAR year.

He would end the decade with a staggering 68.7 WAR, already the level of a hall of fame lock. That also includes nearly a full season lost to the strike of 1994 and 1995. In the shortened ’94 season, Griffey had accrued 7.2 WAR in only 111 games, and his .442 wOBA would become his career high. 1995 wasn’t as kind, but Griffey still put up 3.6 WAR in 72 games despite a decade-low .260 BABIP.

In 2000, Griffey was traded to the Cincinnati Reds, where his first season would be his only good one. He put up 5.8 wins that year on the heels of a standard Griffey .271/.387/.556 line. He played in 145 games that season, a mark that he would never reach again. From 2002-2004, he would be held below 100 games, and his fielding started to go, as he combined for a terrible -27 UZR in these three seasons. 2005 would be his last productive season, as he hit like Griffey, with a .397 wOBA, but his -19 UZR set him back to only 3.3 WAR. With his legs shot, his BABIP fell dramatically, and as such his hitting soon dropped to the point where his completely absent defense resulted in a replacement level player. He would languish on the rosters of the Cincinnati Reds, Chicago White Sox, and Seattle Mariners for the next few seasons, but the Griffey of old was gone.

I don’t think anything quite sums up both the greatness and the disappointment of Ken Griffey Jr’s career as this graph (click to enlarge):

Through age 31, he was right in line with Hank Aaron, Barry Bonds, and Willie Mays – three of the best outfielders to play the game. Unfortunately, a rash of injuries just simply wouldn’t let Griffey quite reach the level that those three did.

Of course, we can wonder for ages about what would have happened. Despite all the misfortunes, Griffey still ended with a fantastic career and a guaranteed spot in the Hall of Fame. Ken Griffey Jr’s prime was one of the best that baseball has ever seen, and one which should be celebrated. His impact on the game of baseball was profound, and I can safely say that he was one of the best players that I have had the pleasure of watching.

The blown call to end Armando Galarraga’s bid for a perfect game has, quite predictably, restarted debate on the topic of instant replay in Major League Baseball. Replay was introduced in 2008, but was limited to home runs. Here’s Commissioner Selig on the introduction of replay:

“I believe that the extraordinary technology that we now have merits the use of instant replay on a very limited basis,” Commissioner Selig said. “The system we have in place will ensure that the proper call is made on home run balls and will not cause a significant delay to the game.” (emphasis mine)

This is Selig’s justification for why instant replay couldn’t be used on plays like fair or foul calls on balls in play or on calls at bases, much like what happened with the play in tonight’s game. Selig has been very reluctant to implement instant replay in any form due to this fear of slowing down the game, which has manifested itself already this season.

Tonight may have been the final straw. In 2008, two missed calls on home runs in New York City in a very short time interval created the first frenzy about instant replay. Tonight’s debacle in Detroit has completely unleashed the powers of the press. At the time of this writing, about two and a half hours after the last pitch, here’s what some in the media are saying about the call.

Bill Simmons, ESPN: Silver lining: instant replay now a lock.
@PTIShow (Tony Kornheiser), ESPN: The lack of replay isn’t just unfair to Galarraga, it’s unfair to Joyce.
Keith Law, ESPN: I, for one, welcome our new replay overlords.
Henry Schulman, San Francisco Chronicle: OK, replay fans, I’m in.
Jayson Stark: WE NEED MORE REPLAY.
Christine Brennan, USA Today: Selig should go to instant replay — now.
Jeff Passan, Yahoo Sports: It’s the perfect time to expand instant replay.
Buster Olney, ESPN: This will become Exhibit A on why baseball should have already had broader use of instant replay.

This is only in the immediate aftermath of the game. Surely more pleas for instant replay will be coming from both the blogosphere and the mainstream media as the newsday begins anew on Thursday.

This is long overdue. The technology is too advanced for baseball to be subjected to the inadequacies inherent in human umpires. We’ve seen it in every major American sport (sorry, soccer) in some way, shape, or form, and it is almost unanimously supported. Eventually, it will set in. No matter how much we talk about the human element, what matters is the performance on the field. What matters is getting it right. Hopefully, the incoming media storm will be enough to convince Bud Selig of the very same.

Last night, the Houston Astros defeated the Washington Nationals in an 8-7 extra innings thriller. The hero for the Astros was first baseman Lance Berkman, who was 3-5 with 5 RBIs, including the walk-off two run single. As a result of that and other minor heroics, Berkman had an astronomical +.912 WPA. That WPA is the second highest mark this season from a hitter, only behind Jason Heyward’s +1.032 WPA performance on April 18th.

Berkman’s performance certainly wasn’t the best hitting performance of the season. He didn’t hit any home runs and made two outs. He still managed to put up, in terms of value to his team at the time of his plate appearances, one of the most valuable performances we’ve seen this season. Let’s break it down.

1st PA: 0-0, First inning, 0 out, 1_3. LI: 1.61

Berkman doubled off Nationals starter Craig Stammen, plating Michael Bourn and Jeff Keppinger. The run expectancy at this point in the inning was 1.81. Berkman plated two runs and the resulting run expectancy – 0 outs, runner on second – was still above one run at 1.08. This contribution started Berkman off at a +.110 WPA.

2nd PA: 3-0, Second inning, 1 out, 1__. LI: 0.59

In the second, Berkman flied out against Stammen. With the Astros up by three runs and an out already made in the inning, this at-bat did not have much of an impact on the Astros chances. Berkman received -0.14 WPA for this at bat, leaving him at +.096 after two PAs.

3rd PA: 4-0, Fourth inning, 2 out, ___. LI: 0.13

The game is looking like a yawner. The Astros have a comfortable lead in the fourth, and Berkman struck out to end a 1-2-3 inning. Any result other than a home run would have had a minimal impact on the game. Berkman’s strikeout only resulted in a -.003 WPA, leaving him with a total of +.093 after three PAs.

4th PA: 5-4, Sixth inning, 1 out, __3. LI: 1.43

The Nationals got to the Astros defense and starter Brett Myers in the top of the 5th inning, as they plated four runs behind a walk, two errors, a double, a fielder’s choice, and a sacrifice fly. Hunter Pence put the Astros ahead 5-4 in the fifth, but the Astros were looking for insurance runs in the sixth when Berkman came up for the fourth time. The speedy Michael Bourn was on third base, meaning that most balls in play would successfully drive in a run. Berkman did one better, grounding a single to left field, scoring Bourn and giving the Astros a late two-run lead. Berkman received a +.056 WPA credit for the hit, and would later take second on a wild pitch for a +.011 WPA credit, bringing his four PA total to +.160 for the game.

5th PA: 6-5, 8th inning, 1 out, 1__, LI: 0.67

The Astros continued to find creative ways to allow runs, as the Nationals scored a run on a HBP in the top of the 8th inning. Still, with one out, the lead, and nobody in scoring position, Berkman’s 5th plate appearance was a low leverage situation. He walked, but would be stranded at second base. The Astros were scoreless in the inning. His walk was worth a meager +.018 WPA, pushing his total to +.178.

Final PA: 6-7, 9th inning, 2 outs, 123, LI: 10.78

Here it is. Nothing else matters. If Berkman doesn’t come through here, the game ends. An extra base hit or a well placed single wins the game. A walk or a one-run hit gives the Astros another chance to win it in the 9th or at least sends the game to extras. The Nationals managed to take the lead in the top of the inning, thanks to back to back singles by Ian Desmond and Roger Bernadina. The Astros managed to load the bases after an error, a double, and an intentional walk. After a fielder’s choice resulted in the second out at home, Berkman came to the plate. He rapped a line drive to left field, and Cory Sullivan and Michael Bourn scored to end the game. Given that the situation was 10 times more important the the average situation, Berkman’s contribution here was huge. He received a +.734 WPA for the play, pushing his total up to +.912. Notably, it was only Nationals’ closer Matt Capps’s second blown save of the season in 19 chances. He had been pitching excellently, and his FIP still sits at a solid 3.15.

Berkman is one of the few bright spots on the Astros roster. His presence in the lineup means that days like this are possible, as he can carry this team on his shoulders. Last night’s game was fantastic for Berkman and the Astros alike, and it could wind up being the moment of the season for player and team alike.