Last night was a night to remember for Mark Teahen. Forget the box score – Teahen went 3-5 with a triple, a home run, a run scored, 3 RBIs, and a SB – it was the way Teahen refused to let the White Sox lose last night that made Monday, April 12, 2010 against the Toronto Blue Jays a career night for the veteran of five seasons.

Entering the sixth inning, it didn’t appear as though Teahen would even have a good game, much less a special one, as the 9th batter in the Sox lineup had been stymied twice by Blue Jays starter Brian Tallet, with a flyout to center field and a force out to second. At that point, Teahen’s WPA for the night stood at -.059. In that inning, however, Teahen hit a two-out RBI single, tying the game at 6-6, good for a WPA of .146, raising his total game WPA to .087. Teahen added a stolen base, but would be stranded at 2nd, his game WPA at .103 after the SB.

The White Sox bullpen struggled in the 7th, as Randy Williams walked in a run to put the Jays ahead 7-6. The Jays bullpen, behind Shawn Camp and Scott Downs, shut down the White Sox until the 9th inning. Jason Frasor, the Blue Jays closer, then faced Teahen to open the last frame. Frasor’s lead was gone immediately, as Teahen smoked an 0-2 fastball for a solo home run to tie the game. The shot was worth a +.333 WPA, bringing his game total to .436, nearly enough to create an entire win for his team.

The White Sox failed to score again in the 9th, and the game remained scoreless until the 11th inning, when Teahen once again appeared in an important situation – a runner on first and nobody out. Once again, Teahen responded, tripling in the go-ahead run off Jeremy Accardo. The triple earned Teahen another +.329 WPA, bringing his game total up to a whopping +.765. This turned out to be the winning run, as Bobby Jenks managed to close the door in the bottom of the 11th.

The winning team, as a whole, will only have a +.500 WPA. Teahen shouldered the entire load and some more for the White Sox on Monday night in what could be one of the biggest, in terms of clutch hitting and value to the team, performances of the entire year. In his final 3 PAs, in which he went 3-3 with a 3B, a HR, and 3 RBIs, the run he knocked in either tied the game or gave the White Sox the lead. The leverage index of these three plays were 1.86, 2.90, and 3.43, respectively. Teahen came up huge in big spots for Chicago. To do so once can make you a hero. To do so three times in the same game? That’s simply amazing.

C.J. Wilson’s debut as a starting pitcher against Toronto yesterday could not have gone much better. Wilson threw 7 shutout innings, only allowing 5 hits, while striking out a remarkable 9 batters and only walking 2. Wilson hadn’t started a game in the major leagues since 2005 and had never thrown more than 6 innings in the majors.

Wilson performed very well in a relief role last season, putting up a crazy 10.26 K/9 and a 2.81 FIP/3.25 xFIP, worth 2.0 wins above replacement in a mere 73.2 innings. That kind of performance suggests that Wilson could be a serviceable starter, if not a good one, based on the idea that relievers typically perform about one run worse per nine innings in a starting pitcher’s role. That’s because when relievers are only throwing in one or two inning bursts, they’re able to turn up the heat more often, but more importantly, they only go through the lineup one time. The other question with relievers shifting to a starting role is often their platoon splits, and Wilson’s career platoon splits are heavy, as his career FIP and xFIP against right handed batters are 1.2 runs and 0.9 runs higher respectively.

So, let’s take a look at three things from Wilson’s first start. First of all – Wilson’s stuff. His velocity was down from an average fastball of 93.1 to 89.9. The velocity of most of his secondary stuff fell by a similar rate, except for his curveball, which fell from 81 MPH last season to 74 MPH on Thursday. His curveball also had a much sharper horizontal break, up to -4.3 inches from -2.8 career and -2.1 last season. It didn’t draw any swinging strikes, but 3 of the 4 he threw were strikes. All of his other stuff was generating swinging strikes, as his fastballs (four- and two-seamers combined) generated 8 swinging strikes in 62 pitches (12.9%), and his changeup and slider combined to draw 7 swinging strikes in 30 pitches (23.3%). Overall, this led to an excellent 15.3% swinging strike rate, slightly better than Rich Harden’s league leading 15.1% rate last season. Despite the drop in velocity, Wilson’s stuff was very effective.

Secondly, did his results change based on which time the Jays were going through their order? The first time through the order, the Jays only had two runners reach base – a single by leadoff hitter Mike McCoy and a walk issued to Edwin Encarnacion. The first 9 batters faced by Wilson went 1-8 with two strikeouts and the walk. The final 18 performed slightly better, but not greatly so. They went 4/17 (.222) with a walk, a double, and seven more strikeouts. Overall, Wilson just looked great throughout the whole start.

The final question – how did the left-hander fare against the Jays’ righties? The right-handed batters he faced – McCoy, Jose Bautista, Vernon Wells, Encarnacion, Alex Gonzalez, and Jose Molina – were 4-16, with two walks, five strikeouts, a double, and one double play. The lefties – Lind, Overbay, and Snider – were 1/9 with four strikeouts and a double. Wilson was very effective against hitters of each hand, and although right handers were more effective than lefties, he still managed to shut them down. That will be key as the season continues, as he will likely face lineups loaded with right handed batters, based on his career splits.

Overall, it was a very encouraging start for both Wilson and the Rangers. It wasn’t against one of the better offenses in the league, but it still looks like Wilson will be here to stay as a starter in the major leagues. He will be a key to a Rangers team hoping to break the Angels’ dominance in the AL West.

The first week of the season is beautiful. Garret Jones is on pace for 243 HRs. Edgar Renteria leads the league in batting at .727. Placido Polanco is on pace for 486 RBIs. With extremely small samples abound, we get to see our fair share of ridiculous statistics. Chief among them just might be Vernon Wells’s current 2010 line: 8 PAs, 5/7, 3 HR, 6 RBI, 1 BB, .714/.778/2.000.

Perhaps, the Wells that signed a 7 year, $126 million contract is back. Of course, we’d be best served by simply looking towards Wells’s projections when it comes to forecasting the rest of his 2010. Still, this hot start has happened – much like R.J. and Dave C. have each noted in the past. How will this seven PA explosion impact our projection of Wells’s final line?

For simplicity’s sake, let’s just stick with CHONE’s projection. CHONE projected Wells for the following line: 608 PAs, 149/562, 100 1B, 29 2B, 2 3B, 18 HR, 43 BB, .265/.321/.420 (.327 wOBA).
Now, scaling back to 601 PAs to account for the 7 Wells already has gives the following: 98.8 1B, 28.7 2B, 2.0 3B, 17.8 HR, 42.5 BB. Adding in his 7 banked PAs gives the following 608 PA line (with rounding): 153/562, 101 1B, 29 2B, 2 3B, 21 HR, 43 BB, .272/.322/.443 (.333 wOBA). That’s a pretty significant difference – 3-4 runs according to wRAA and 24 points of OPS.

For as much as we talk about small sample sizes, that’s a pretty significant effect on a final season line from only 7 plate appearances. There is a chance that he goes through an 0/9 stretch at some point which completely nullifies it, but we can’t assume that will happen. That’s the Gambler’s Fallacy, the entire basis of R.J. and Dave’s posts. At this point, we should simply assume that Wells will perform at his projection for the rest of the year (actually, slightly better, incorporating the information from his first 7 PAs, but not significantly better), and adjust the final outcome based on what’s happened.

Vernon Wells already has 3 homers in the bank this year. Even if the rest of year just goes as expected, it could look like a bit of a rebound for someone who looked down and out last season.

A couple of managerial decisions over the last two days of baseball have confused me in games that I have watched. Both of them involved the management of bullpens. Bullpen management can certainly get dicey as the season progresses, as usage has to balanced very carefully along with injuries, spot starts, and various other issues. However, it should be a relatively simple matter at this point in the season, as all teams are starting fresh. Nobody comes into opening day off a 14 inning, 10 pitcher thriller in the spring training finale.

The first came in the Milwaukee Brewers season opener against the Colorado Rockies, when manager Ken Macha decided to go with left hander Chris Narveson, a pitcher with a 4.22 FIP last season, mostly in relief, and only one year removed from a AAA FIP of 4.91 with the Brewers down 4-2 in the 7th. Narveson barely got out of his first inning, allowing a double to Todd Helton and two fly balls from Troy Tulowitzki and Brad Hawpe. He managed to escape unscathed thanks to an Ian Stewart groundout. The second inning did not go as well, though, as Carlos Gonzalez singled and then right-handed pinch hitter Ryan Spilborghs hit a double which scored Gonzalez from first, allowing the Rockies to go up 5-2. They barely avoided a rally, as the Brewers scored one in the 9th to make the final score 5-3. The run allowed in the 8th cost the Brewers about 6% of a win.

The second came in the Seattle Mariners vs. Oakland Athletics game, as the Mariners sent out Rule 5 pick Kanekoa Texeira to start a 1-1 9th inning. Texeira pitched well by all accounts, and managed to get through the 9th inning, even though he allowed a single to Mark Ellis and a broken bat double to Travis Buck. The A’s got to him in the 10th, as Mark Ellis hit a walk-off single to give the A’s their first win of the season. Texeira’s outing had a much larger impact on win probability – in his last inning, he had a -.417 WPA.

In the case of the Brewers, none of their relievers had seen any action in the game, and therefore the season. Is one inning too much for Todd Coffey or LaTroy Hawkins, even if the Brewers are behind? What about Carlos Villanueva, who is a better pitcher and possesses a changeup with which to neutralize opposite-handed hitters. For the Mariners, was the one inning that Brandon League threw on Monday enough to warrant keeping him out of this game? Was it necessary for a Rule 5 pick making his major league debut to throw the 9th and 10th innings of a tie game?

It’s very likely that I’m just making a mountain out of a molehill, but decisions like this irk me. It feels to me that the managers are either outsmarting themselves by trying to save their bullpens at such an early stage or are simply not taking April games seriously enough. Perhaps the rest of the guys in the bullpen just weren’t ready, or the managers felt the matchups were better. From my perspective, though, it seems like weaker pitchers were used in situations which warranted better pitcher’s – Narveson’s .79 entrance LI suggests something more than a mop-up pitcher, and Texeira’s 2.28 entrance LI suggests that it was a closer situation. Even though it’s only April, and only games 1 and 2 out of 162, these situations scream opportunity wasted.

Next year has arrived in Chicago, and with Rich Harden gone, even more pressure will be on starter Carlos Zambrano to carry a heavy load for the Cubs rotation. His season did not get off to a good start yesterday, as he was lit up for 8 runs in only 1.1 innings, including home runs by Jason Heyward and Brian McCann. For the Cubs to challenge the Cardinals for the Central division title, Zambrano will have to pitch like an ace, as without him, the Cubs are likely a sub-.500 team.

Unfortunately, Zambrano certainly hasn’t been an ace pitcher over the last four years. Since 2006, his xFIP hasn’t been outside the 4.20-4.65 range, and only a stupidly low 5.6% HR/FB rate managed to get his 2009 FIP to 3.61. It’s really quite simple – Zambrano walks too many to be an ace at this point. 2008 was the only time in the same four year stretch in which Zambrano managed a walk rate below 4.00 per nine innings.

Somehow, though, Zambrano has managed to post ERA’s under 4.00 for all of the aforementioned years – in large part relying on BABIPs lower than .280. Zambrano has pitched for three above average defensive teams (from 2006 to 2008). Last season, the Cubs fell to a below average team UZR, and Zambrano’s BABIP skyrocketed to .308. Although that is by no means conclusive, it is possible that solid fielding behind him is in part responsible for Zambrano constantly outperforming his FIP. If that has disappeared this year, Zambrano could be in trouble.

There may be some heavy regression in line for Zambrano – both in terms of career BABIP and in terms of home runs allowed – and Monday may only have been the beginning. Zambrano should still be an above average pitcher, but he no longer has the ability to constantly win games by himself that the true aces do. If Zambrano doesn’t have the position players playing great baseball behind him like the Cubs had in 2006 and 2007, the Cubs will be on the outside looking in come September and October.

Opening day is supposed to be just loaded with brilliant pitching matchups. Sometimes they’re not the pitchers duel as advertised, as we saw with last night’s 9-7 Sabathia vs. Beckett matchup, but I wouldn’t bet on a similar result in today’s Zack Greinke–Justin Verlander showdown or even the Josh Johnson–Johan Santana duel to be seen at Citi Field.

For the most part, the opening day games have at least one great pitcher (Roy Halladay vs. John Lannan at Washington), or maybe some young up-and-comers (Ubaldo Jimenez vs. Yovani Gallardo at Milwaukee), or at least a couple of above average pitchers who have had good years (Shaun Marcum vs. Scott Feldman at Texas). One matchup, however, just makes you wonder about how it could possibly happen.

The Dodgers will be taking on the Pirates at PNC park at 1:35 PM Eastern time this afternoon. The probable pitchers as of this morning are Vicente Padilla and Zach Duke, two pitchers with K/BB ratios below 2 and FIPs above 4.00. Combined, CHONE projects these two to be worth only 35 runs above replacement, or just over half of Zack Greinke’s projected value.

What makes this matchup especially egregious is that Padilla and Duke are nowhere near the best pitchers on their respective teams. Padilla’s ability as a pitcher doesn’t approach that of either Chad Billingsley nor Clayton Kershaw, and he’s not better than Hiroki Kuroda, either. Paul Maholm of the Pirates is a proven 3-win pitcher, and he actually projects at a similar level to Kershaw, whereas Duke is projected at the level of Carl Pavano.

Now, there could be very good reasons why each pitcher is starting the game over other, more deserving candidates. All I know is if I had a ticket for this game, I wouldn’t be too happy with either manager.

One of the coolest things about Win Expectancy, in my opinion, is the way that it can be graphically represented. Of course, most people reading this post will know this from the classic Win Probability graphs we have here at FanGraphs. With this graphical representation, we can investigate beyond the simple line on the screen using the branch of mathematics known as analysis.

Analysis, better known as calculus, is used to solve two problems. One is finding the area contained under a curve, and the other, which will be used in this post, is to find the slope of a curve. In physics, if a graph is presented with time on the horizontal axis and position on the vertical axis, such as this graph (LINK) from HitTracker Online, the slope of the curve represents the velocity. Similarly, the slope of the line of a Win Probability graph in a way represents the “velocity” of a baseball game.

A Win Probability graph is composed of broken line segments, with each line representing the WPA of a play in the game. The slope of each line segment is then equal to the WPA of the corresponding play. Unfortunately, we can’t find the slope at the point where the broken line segments meet, because the slopes are different on each side of these points. In order to counteract this, we need to model the Win Probability graph with a curve. In this case, I choose to use something called a cubic spline, because it’s both accurate and relatively easy to compute with mathematical software. This makes it possible to find the slope at the points between the plays by taking the derivative of the curve.

Let’s show this with the 163rd game of the Twins and Tigers. Below is the graph for that game.

Read the rest of this entry »

Apparently, the Yankees fifth starter isn’t going to be Chad Gaudin. The Yankees officially released the 27-year-old starter on Monday, as Gaudin’s $2.95MM contract wasn’t claimed and he passed through waivers.

Gaudin shouldn’t have any trouble finding a job. He’s clearly a major-league quality pitcher, as he’s posted 4.5 wins above replacement in three seasons and 369.2 innings as a starter and 67 more as a reliever. CHONE has him projected at a 4.58 FIP, which is just above league average. Even after adjusting for his time as a reliever, Gaudin’s projected FIP doesn’t change that much, and he could be worth over 2 wins in 160 innings of starting pitching.

Gaudin was expendable for the Yankees if you assume that one of the Joba Chamberlain and Phil Hughes duo takes the 5th starting spot. If the Yankees are giving up Gaudin in order to put Sergio Mitre or Dustin Moseley or anybody else on the mound with any sort of regularity, this move is certainly a mistake, as Gaudin is certainly better than the scraps of the Yankees pitching depth. It’s possible that the Yankees are reacting to Gaudin’s awful spring, in which he’s allowed a 8.68 ERA and 16 H in just over 9 innings.

[UPDATE: It looks like Phil Hughes will start the season as the Yankees 5th starter, and Chamberlain will go the bullpen, possibly for the 8th inning role.]

It is shocking that nobody claimed Gaudin’s contract, as he has the potential to be worth more than double his $2.95MM salary. One would think that there would be a fight at the top of the waiver order to claim him, but he somehow slipped through the cracks. Gaudin could be a fit for the Mariners if Cliff Lee is forced to miss time, as, unlike Jarrod Washburn, Gaudin has been in camp the whole spring and could probably step in on opening day. Other contending teams that could have slots for Gaudin include the Dodgers and the Cardinals, but really, there aren’t many teams out there that wouldn’t improve with him on the roster.

The situation surrounding the ownership of the Los Angeles Dodgers has been well publicized. The financial tie-up that has resulted has already had a negative impact on the team the Dodgers will put on the field in 2010. The Dodgers lost Randy Wolf and Orlando Hudson to free agency, and the only outside free agent of note to come to L.A. is Jamey Carroll. The Dodgers did manage to maintain SP Vicente Padilla, but for a team in a market such as Los Angeles, that’s certainly no free agent splash.

This means that there will be some question marks for this year’s Dodgers squad. Ronnie Belliard, Blake DeWitt, and Jamey Carroll are fighting for the 2B spot. Belliard is a poor defender and a fringe major-leaguer at this point. Carroll can provide value either at 2B or as a utility man due to his good defense and versatility, but is weak with the bat. DeWitt is a total question mark – he didn’t put up great minor league batting numbers and doesn’t have a good fielding reputation, but he did perform quite well in 421 PAs in 2008.

The pitching staff as a whole still has questions remaining to be answered. Chad Billingsley had a down year last year, but was still quite productive. Clayton Kershaw has the potential to be one of the best starters in the NL and had a fantastic season last year, but he could see some regression with regards to home runs this year. Hiroki Kuroda has performed excellently in the majors (3.59 FIP), but health has been an issue. Vicente Padilla was roughly average last season, and should be a serviceable #4 starter. Then the question – who will fill that last spot? The choices range from Rule 5 pick Carlos Monasterios to knuckleballer Charlie Haeger to Russ Ortiz to Josh Towers. The back of rotation has plenty of depth but not much in terms of good pitching, and if one of the top 4 goes down for a significant stretch of time, the Dodgers could be in trouble.

The bullpen returns Johnathon Broxton, Hong Chi-Kuo, and George Sherrill, a trio that will make the 7th, 8th, and 9th innings tough on any team. Interestingly, nobody seems to know where Ronald Belisario is, but Ramon Troncoso pitched well last season and whoever loses in the fifth starter battle can probably fill the back of the bullpen just fine.

What really makes this team click is the starting lineup. The outfield of Manny Ramirez, Matt Kemp, and Andre Ethier is one of the best hitting outfields in the league, even if the defense in the corners is suspect. There’s a good chance that Russell Martin rebounds this year, even if he doesn’t quite return to 2007 or 2008 numbers. A.J. Ellis is a serviceable backup while Martin recovers from a groin injury. Casey Blake, at age 36, is starting to hit the decline phase of his career, but he still projects as an above average hitter.

James Loney doesn’t provide the pop that is expected of a first baseman, but he still is a lock for an above average OBP and about 15 HRs. As only an average fielder at 1B, that makes him one of the few below-average players in this lineup. At SS is Rafael Furcal, who is starting to slow up at age 32. His 2008 season, where he put up a 176 wRC+ in 164 PAs, was certainly a fluke, as he projects as below average at this point. He can still run a bit, but it remains to be seen how his fielding holds up.

The Dodgers bench should be solid, as the losers of the 2B battle and Reed Johnson will be a formidable first trio off the pine. Chin-lung Hu is an interesting option, as well, as he has an excellent defensive reputation at SS but isn’t quite ready with the bat at this point.

Overall, the Dodgers are a good team but certainly aren’t without their weaknesses. This is a team that should compete for a division title but by no means should run away with one, as the Colorado Rockies and possibly Arizona Diamondbacks are fielding very competitive teams this year. Look for the Dodgers to be right in the thick of an intense NL West race.

After what appeared to be some back and forth negotiations, lefty specialist Joe Beimel signed a minor league contract with the Colorado Rockies on Monday. This must be a disappointing development for Beimel, who made nearly $4 million over the last two years.

Beimel is a LOOGY, plain and simple. Over the course of his career, Beimel has performed well against left handed pitchers, with an FIP of 3.62. When forced to face right handers, his production plummets, as his FIP rises over a full run to 4.75. This is due to an increase in walk rate and a complete inability to strike batters out. Against right handed batters, Beimel’s K/BB is an abysmal 0.90.

Despite this poor performance against righties, Beimel has put up 1.9 WAR since 2007. Even at age 33, CHONE projects Beimel to be worth about half a win in 2010. If Colorado can limit his exposure to right handers, then there’s a good chance that he can reproduce his 2007 and 2008 numbers with the Dodgers, in which Beimel averaged 0.8 WAR per season. There is, of course, some risk with any 33 year old reliever, but that risk is far outweighed by the potential reward in this case.

I find it hard to believe that there weren’t other teams willing to bid against the Rockies to raise Beimel’s price to at least some guaranteed money. At 33, the aging process may be taking hold of Beimel, but he’s still a good bet to be a major-league quality LOOGY, and that’s worth at least $1 million dollars in this market, if not more. The Rockies got a steal here, and especially with Huston Street to miss time, this move could have an impact on a tight NL West race.