In December, I wrote a post about how Joe Crede was falling under the radar in the free agent market in 2010, much like he did in 2009, when he took a $2.5 million incentive-laden contract with the Twins. As I write today’s post, we are a mere two weeks from opening day, and Crede is still looking for a job. Reportedly, Crede isn’t retiring, and is remaining active and hoping for a job offer.

All the projection systems we have on site here project Crede as a -5 to -9 hitter over 600 plate appearances. Despite his injury issues, he still seems to be an excellent defender – his UZR/150 is 10.8 and his best fielding numbers have come in the most recent years. Putting that all together, Crede projects as a slightly above-average player, and even with an assumed injury limited season of 300 plate appearances, that’s 1.0-1.5 WAR.

So what did teams take this winter over Crede? Let’s take a look at some players who were part of the same 3B market as Crede (although some won’t be playing that position next year).

San Francisco re-signed Juan Uribe at $3.25MM, 1.2 proj. WAR
Baltimore acquired Garrett Atkins at $4.5MM, 0.5 proj. WAR
Baltimore signed Miguel Tejada at $6.0MM, 2.3 proj. WAR
Houston signed Pedro Feliz at $4.5MM, 2.0* proj. WAR
San Francisco signed Mark DeRosa at $6MM, 1.9 proj. WAR
Chicago (AL) acquired Mark Teahen at $3.75MM, 1.5 proj. WAR

And three other players have signed minor league contracts:
Texas signed Matt Brown, -0.5 proj. WAR
Los Angeles (AL) signed Robb Quinlan, -0.5 proj. WAR
Arizona signed Chad Tracy, -0.1 proj. WAR

San Francisco passed on Crede in two different situations, passing on the better 3B value in order to take the more versatile players in Uribe and DeRosa. In the case of Baltimore, Tejada is certainly a better hitter than Crede and less of an injury risk. Crede, however, is certainly the better fielder, and that makes their talent levels roughly even. It’s hard to imagine Crede not providing both a better value and more wins than Atkins.

For the Astros, Crede is just simply a better fit than Feliz. Feliz’s CHONE projection includes a very optimistic fielding projection of +9, which doesn’t fit with his progressively dropping UZR ratings and his advanced age of 34. It’s likely that Crede would provide more value both in the sense of the contract and wins than Feliz. Similarly, I think Crede would’ve been a better fit for the White Sox as opposed to the defensively challenged Teahen, and he wouldn’t have cost them as much money nor the control of Chris Getz and Josh Fields.

There are still some potential fits out there for Crede. I think he would make good Brandon Wood insurance for the Angels. A similar situation would be in St. Louis, where he could serve as David Freese insurance, but that role seems to have fallen on Felipe Lopez. It seems like a lack of versatility is what has hurt Crede’ options this winter, but Crede is still a talented player, and I would be surprised if he doesn’t latch on somewhere at some point in the season.

John Smoltz announced yesterday that he will be taking a studio job with TBS for the time being. That essentially rules out any return to the big leagues by opening day for Smoltz. The future hall-of-famer did say he isn’t officially retired, leaving a return possible, but for the foreseeable future, John Smoltz will not be pitching in the big leagues.

It looked like Smoltz was done last year after struggling with the Boston Red Sox. Smoltz gave up 37 runs in 40 innings in that stint, for an ERA of 8.33. His peripherals, however, suggested that he could still be a productive pitcher, as he posted a 3.67 K/BB and a 4.95 FIP despite an uncharacteristically high 14.8% HR/FB rate.

A move to St. Louis suggested that there was still some gas in the tank. He put up a stellar 2.73 FIP, 2.76 tRA, and 3.46 xFIP in 38 innings with St. Louis. Overall, we have Smoltz as a 1.5 win player in a measly 78 innings in 2009. Even if Smoltz doesn’t have the durability to be a starter any more, there seems to be sufficient evidence that he could be a very productive reliever.

The projection systems all like Smoltz for 2010. These systems all consider age, and yet of the five systems we show on the site (CHONE, ZiPS, Marcel, Bill James, Fans), the worst projection is CHONE’s at a 4.00 FIP. All the others think he’s at least a 3.82 FIP pitcher, making him a well above average pitcher. There’s no way that some team can’t find a spot for him in their rotation (St. Louis, Milwaukee, Seattle, as examples) or bullpen (Minnesota, for one).

It’s always disappointing when talent is forced out of the big leagues, for whatever reason. Still, I, for one, don’t think we’ll have to wait too long for Smoltz to find his way back.

Right now, it seems like Juan Pierre, Carlos Quentin, and Alex Rios are locks for the White Sox starting outfield, and then Andruw Jones has a good chance of being the 4th outfielder. That leaves Alejandro De Aza, Jordan Danks, Josh Kroeger, and Mark Kotsay as the four candidates for the 5th outfield spot. So far, the 25-year-old De Aza is making a strong case in spring training, with a 13/33 line (.394 avg), 4 XBH, and 3 BB.

With Jones currently set to receive the majority of PAs at DH, that leaves quite a few PAs open for another outfielder after the three starters. That means that this decision will be important for the White Sox, as this final outfielder could be an injury away from a starting role and could potentially be the first player off the bench.

De Aza certainly isn’t as good as his spring line so far, but he’s a very interesting player. He didn’t play at all in 2008, but he had a decent season in Double-A as a 22-year-old in 2006 and then had an excellent season in Triple-A upon his return in 2009, putting up a 130 wRC+ in 300 PAs. Thanks to this minor league performance, De Aza is projected to be a near average hitter this season. He has a good defensive reputation and is extremely fast. As such, De Aza is probably a +5 or better defender in the corners and near average as a CF, and that’s a conservative estimate.

With that offensive and defensive profile, De Aza projects as a roughly average player for next year. This kind of player certainly doesn’t grow on trees, and the fact that they were able to steal him for the Florida Marlins is surprising. CHONE projects De Aza for 1.2 wins in only 325 PAs, or 2.2 wins in a full season of work.

Mark Kotsay is old and bad, Jordan Danks likely isn’t ready for the show after a 95 wRC+ in Double-A, and Kroeger is a Triple-A lifer. De Aza is young and has solid tools, and could step in and be productive if any of the starting three go down. Watch for De Aza this summer, as he could have a big impact at the major league level.

Luckily for the Arizona Diamondbacks, Mark Reynolds just missed out on Super 2 status for the 2010 season. That means the 3 year, $14.5 million contract Reynolds signed on Monday will carry him through his first and second arbitration seasons. The contract also contains an $11 million club option on his final arbitration season.

With 72 HR and 199 RBI in the last two seasons for Reynolds, a comparison to Dan Uggla seems apt. Uggla will earn $7.8 million this season on top of a $5.35 million reward in his first arbitration season, with his $13.15 total falling just short of Reynolds’ new deal. In the context of actual arbitration rewards, this contract appears to be fair for both sides.

When it comes to judging players on HR and RBI, as the arbitrators tend to do, the club is often going to lose on players like Reynolds. The Diamondbacks appear to be acknowledging that with this contract, as Reynolds is receiving $14 million for the equivalent of exactly one free agent season in the final two seasons of the deal. Reynolds is a fine player, as he showed last year with a 4 win performance, but with the downturn in the market, it’s unlikely that he is worth that much money.

CHONE, Marcel, and the fans all project a dip in home runs for Reynolds, backed by likely regression from a ridiculous 26% HR/FB rate in 2009. Without these home runs, Reynolds is a good-but-not-great hitter – his projected .363 wOBA is in line with last year’s performance by Paul Konerko. His fielding has now been below average for three straight seasons. This is not to say that he’s not valuable – almost every team could use a 27 year old 3B with a 3.0 WAR skillset. That doesn’t mean, however, that the market will be kind to the club holding his rights. Indeed, it seems like the Diamondbacks were forced to pay $14M for what is projected to be around $10.5M of arbitration market value.

Despite the negativity above, this contract certainly beats having to pay market value for Reynolds’ production for Arizona, and it was inevitable that Reynolds would receive a high contract relative to his production. Josh Byrnes may be trying to take advantage of the lull in the market for player contracts and attempting to squeeze all the production out of the current low value of wins while he can. If the market picks up in future seasons, as I expect it will, this contract could pay dividends to Arizona in a couple of years.

When a team’s payroll falls from $74 million to $36 million in just two years, a drop in talent level is inevitable. This is exactly what we’ve seen with the San Diego Padres since 2008, and as a result, the team on the field at Petco Park will be poor in 2010.

Everybody knows about Adrian Gonzalez, and there’s no doubt that he will be productive for whatever amount of time he plays for San Diego. After that, however, the drop off is steep. Kyle Blanks and Everth Cabrera are young players with some promise, putting up almost two wins above replacement put together. Chase Headley is moving back to third base, and has put together nearly 1000 plate appearances of above-average hitting. Chris Young looks like he can pitch when he’s healthy, and Heath Bell and Mike Adams look like an exceptional back end of a bullpen.

The rest of the roster is just plain unimpressive. None of the aforementioned position players appear ready to have a huge impact at the Major League level. Tony Gwynn Jr. has no power, and Scott Hairston may not even have a starting spot. The rest of the position players contains David Eckstein, Yorvit Torrealba, and Will Venable. There likely isn’t an average player in that group.

The outlook for the rotation is similarly poor. Jon Garland has an established track record of mediocrity. Kevin Correia looked solid last year, but is probably due for some regression. Clayton Richard could put up some numbers in PETCO, but at this point in his career he’s probably only an average SP. Chris Young has injury troubles and was completely ineffective last year, but has been excellent in past years. Then there’s a variety of options for the fifth starter, including Mat Latos, Wade LeBlanc, and Sean Gallagher. There’s no ace here, and even though there’s some young upside, there’s also the chance that Garland and Young give nothing of value this season.

The bullpen will have an excellent back end with Bell and Adams. Luke Gregerson and Joe Thatcher are also both projected to post sub-4.00 ERAs. Those four could make the last few innings an ordeal for teams facing a deficit against the Padres. The rest of the relievers aren’t terribly interesting, but those four give the Padres a decent bullpen.

Vegas is probably underselling this team by placing the over-under at 69 wins. Our FAN standings have them at 79 and CHONE has them at 77 or 78, depending on which method you use. Still, that’s only good for 4th or 5th place in the NL West. There’s limited upside in the starting rotation for the foreseeable future, and Gonzalez is the only position player that will be well above average. There’s no depth right now in the infield, and if Gonzalez misses any significant time, that 69 win mark could be a reality. This might be one of the best teams that can be put together for $36 million, but this is just not a roster that can compete in either 2010 or 2011.

The Minnesota Twins and Denard Span ensured that the two won’t need the arbitration process, as Span signed a five-year contract worth $16.5 million. The deal covers Span’s two remaining league-minimum seasons, three arbitration seasons, and also contains a $9 million club option for Span’s first free agent year.

Strictly looking at the numbers, this deal is quite reasonable. According to the 40/60/80 scheme of arbitration payouts, Span is receiving $15.7 million for 1.8 free agent seasons after removing the $800K for the first two seasons. That’s paying him as a 2.5 win player, which looks like a bit of a win for the Twins given Span’s 3.25 average WAR in his career so far.

For Span, there’s definitely some monetary value in both the security offered by this deal as well as the ability to avoid the grueling arbitration hearings. Still, I find it surprising that his agent couldn’t do better for him. Span has skills that could earn him money in arbitration, such as his ability to hit for average (.311 in 2009) and to steal bases (41 SBs in two seasons). He will be moving to CF this season, and could have increased his value with another good season at the premium position.

This deal makes sense on many levels for the Twins, aside from the apparent bargain they are receiving. The move to CF for Span could be risky, but if he makes the transition well, he could perform at an all-star level as soon as this year. At 26, Span is probably yet to hit his peak as well, and that could potentially squeeze some more value out of the deal for the Twins.

What particularly makes this deal great from a team perspective for me is the timing of the deal. Many economists say that we are starting to move out of the recession, and that suggests that the marginal value of a win will likely start climbing in 2012 if not before that. By the time 2014 rolls around, $6.5 million may only buy one win instead nearly two. Even more than that, the likely inflation of the win market could make the non-guaranteed 2015 team option look fantastic if Span is still a productive player at the time.

It will be interesting to see if teams share this idea of the market as we continue through the season. If they do, look for a bunch of five- or six-year deals on pre-arbitration players to be signed to take advantage of this lull in the win market.

Yesterday, I had the pleasure to attend a Milwaukee Brewers vs. Cincinnati Reds spring training game with Dave Allen, Dave Cameron, Brian Joura, David Appelman, and Matt Klaassen. The Brewers sent their B-team to Goodyear Park, leaving us with a riveting match up featuring such icons as Jody Gerut, Kentrail Davis, Chris Narveson, Laynce Nix, Carson Cistulli All-Star Juan Francisco, and 6’8” giant Logan Ondrusek.

The most recognizable figure at the park in a Brewers uniform just may have been Jim Edmonds, in Brewers camp as a non-roster invitee. Edmonds went 2-3 on Thursday, with a couple of decent-but-not-greatly hit balls and two catches on fly balls directly at him. The 2-3 day at the plate moved Edmonds to .364 on the spring season, and at that rate, Edmonds would have a good shot at the Brewers fifth outfield spot, over such players as Joe Inglett and Norris Hopper.

How productive can Edmonds actually be? He took all of 2009 off and wasn’t that productive in either 2007 or 2008. CHONE projects him to be near replacement level, with a terrible bat and average glove in a corner spot. Some players can handle a year off – Gabe Kapler, for example, came back after a year of managing in A-ball to put up 1.8 wins in only 229 PAs.

We know that Edmonds could quite easily end up below replacement level. What’s his ceiling, though? In 2008, he was pretty productive with the bat, putting up a 115 wRC+ in 400 PAs, all despite a career low (and by a country mile) BABIP of .249. His HR/FB rate returned to near his career average of 20%, as in 2007 it had dropped to 9%, another career low by another wide margin.

A drop to a -15 UZR in 2008 at the age of 38 wasn’t particularly surprising, and expecting Edmonds to be an average or even passable center fielder after a year off wouldn’t be fair. He probably fits as a slightly below average corner outfielder at this time. Still, given what appears to be terrible luck on fly balls Edmonds in 2007 and on balls in play overall in 2008, there is some upside here.

Of course, the key word in the previous sentence is “appears.” With aging players, it’s possible that they just can’t get fly balls over the fence any more, or they just can’t hit the ball consistently hard enough to drop them in for hits. In Edmonds’ case, we can’t say for sure if it was the effects of aging or if it was simply random variation in batted balls. If it is random variation, we could see Edmonds hit well above average, making him a roughly league average player off the bench. That’s his absolute upside, but as a non-roster invitee, you can’t ask for much more if you’re the Milwaukee Brewers, and it will be very interesting to watch Edmonds’ progression this spring.

Vesting options are an interesting bargaining tool in the market of baseball. Usually based on some sort of playing time (PAs, games started, games finished, appearances, etc.), the players’ ability theoretically decides whether or not the option vests, as the player will be benched if his performance isn’t worthy of the playing time bench mark. However, we can see some situations come up where a team can be put between a rock and a hard place with these options, as the player is performing too well to be benched but too poorly to earn the money the option guarantees. Here are two vesting options to watch for the 2010 season.

Magglio Ordonez, OF, Tigers

This is one that Dave Dombrowski and the Tigers should have been watching Ordonez’s 2009 vesting option – he only made the cut by 61 plate appearances, and if salary was as big an issue as Tigers brass made it sound when Curtis Granderson was traded, 61 plate appearances could’ve been easy to cut from his playing time. Instead, the Tigers will be paying Ordonez $18MM this season.

The same situation could come up once again this season, as 540 plate appearances will guarantee a $15MM salary for Ordonez in 2011. Even if the market rate for wins climbs back to $4MM per win next season, Ordonez’s market value likely won’t approach $15MM, as CHONE projects the 36 year old for only 2 wins. Simply put, age hasn’t been kind to Magglio since his fantastic 8.8 WAR, .438 wOBA 2007, and his defense is approaching liability territory. The Tigers would do well to avoid letting his option vest.

Kerry Wood, RP, Indians

Kerry Wood’s 2 year, $20.5MM contract was considered risky at best by many at the time of its signing. Now that the Indians don’t appear to be contenders, it looks worse, as Wood didn’t have the leads to save last year and may not this year either. Wood has an $11MM option that vests if he finishes 55 games – teams aren’t allowed to use performance-based qualifiers such as saves for options or incentives.

The Indians certainly have incentives to play Wood at the end of the games early in the season, as anything can happen with key injuries to players like Joe Nathan. Mostly, though, the Indians would do well to build up Wood’s trade value, as they could bring in some well needed young arms if Wood shows promise early in the year. As a reliever who will turn 33 this season and is averaging 1 WAR per season over the last three years, it’s unlikely that he will fulfill the value of his option. It will be interesting to see how Wood’s team handles this situation if he is on a contending team, whether that be the Indians or a hypothetical trading partner.

For most of this offseason, when our titles have contained the word “Mets,” the phrase “The Contest” could be shortly found. If Omar Minaya is trying to keep pace with Dayton Moore and Ed Wade, last Thursday’s pickup of Kiko Calero on a minor league deal was a major step back.

Joe Pawlikowski covered all of the reasons why Calero would be a good pickup last month. Quite simply, Calero did everything that DIPS theory and FIP suggest that a pitcher needs to do to be successful, as he limited home runs and walks while striking out over a batter per inning, resulting in a 2.56 FIP. His 3.92 xFIP suggests some luck, as his 1.4% HR/FB rate probably isn’t sustainable, but that’s still respectable for a middle reliever, and probably deserving of a MLB contract.

The fact that Minaya managed to snag Calero for a minor league deal is commendable. If any of the injury issues that have plagued Calero’s career show themselves in camp, he can simply be cut. If not, he could possibly be a setup man for Francisco Rodriguez given Kelvim Escobar’s injury issues. There’s no reason that it should have taken teams this long to offer Calero a job, and Minaya managed to pounce at the right time.

Everybody loves to make fun of Omar Minaya for some of his questionable decisions and leadership over the years, but we have to give credit where credit is due when he makes a smart move. His pickup of Calero was a smart move.

The Twins signed Nick Blackburn to a four year contract worth 14 million dollars on Sunday. The contract covers Blackburn’s final pre-arbitration season, all of his arbitration seasons, and also contains an $8 million option for 2014, Blackburn’s first free agent season.

Blackburn has been a quietly productive pitcher for the Twins over the last two seasons, compiling 5.5 WAR, a big boost to a rotation which had just seen Johan Santana leave via trade and Francisco Liriano struggle with injuries and ineffectiveness. This effectiveness has come despite poor peripheral stats – fewer than 4.5 K/9 and over 1 HR/9 are generally not signs of MLB quality pitchers. However, Blackburn has managed due to his spectacular control – a career walk rate below 2 BB/9, keeping his K/BB ratio to a respectable 2.5 level for his career.

Blackburn is a ground ball heavy pitcher, which may account for his ERA outperforming his FIP by about 0.40 runs each of the last two years. Regardless, his 4.39 career FIP makes him a roughly average starting pitcher, the kind of guy who can expect a two-year, $16MM deal, or even a three-year, nearly $30MM deal.

As this deal is covering 1.8 effective free agent seasons (based on the 40/60/80 scheme of arbitration payouts), this deal values Blackburn similarly to Joel Piniero, a very fair comparison according to CHONE projections. If Blackburn’s performance remains at its current level, this contract will likely have a very similar payout to any arbitration rewards he would have received, and avoids the hassle and emotional turmoil of hearings for three years.

Hopefully, the baseball market (and overall economy) will be on the rise by 2014, the year of Blackburn’s option. By then, the cost per marginal win will likely be closer to $5MM or more, making Blackburn’s $8MM option attractive if he can maintain his production. He will, however, be 32 by that point, meaning his peak will likely have passed. With the team option, the Twins cannot lose – either Blackburn is gone with little cost, or they pick up another cheap year of a productive pitcher.