Although there has been quite a bit of debate with regards to the true replacement level for relief pitchers, we think we’ve got a pretty good idea of it here in our win value calculations. By these calculations, Mike MacDougal has been performing at the replacement level for relievers for the last three years, making it sound exactly right that the Marlins added him on a minor league contract with an invitation to spring training on Thursday.

MacDougal’s career is basically living off a 21-save season in 2005, in which he was quite productive for a reliever. In 70+ innings, MacDougal posted a 3.23 FIP, good for 1.5 WAR. Although still productive in limited action in 2006, it just hasn’t been there in the three years since. An FIP of 4.72 over those three years has squarely placed him in the replacement level category.

His CHONE projected FIP of 4.57 is consistent with this level of performance. It’s very unlikely that MacDougal will ever strike out a batter per inning again, and his walk rates have been dangerously high, eclipsing 6.00 each of the last three years. He will likely continue to post low HR/9 numbers, as his FB rate is insanely low at 23.6% for his career. Still, that’s not enough to outweigh a K/BB of 1.00 or worse, and that’s why MacDougal is such a fringe-type player after a promising start to a career.

Here’s the question: is MacDougal worth a roster spot? He’s projected to be the prototypical replacement player. At 33 years old and with an injury history, however, upside is minimal. How many 24-28 year old minor league players can offer similar production with the opportunity for upside and/or development? Looking at the Marlins’ bullpen situation, MacDougal has a substantial chance at making the team and kicking in the $700,000 guaranteed ML part of his split contract.

Personally, I find it hard to believe that there can’t be similar players at a younger age with fewer injury red flags to be had. There are also players like Mark DiFelice, who had a fantastic year at age 31. His stellar minor league numbers translated to major league success despite questionable stuff.

We see the DiFelices of the league passed over in favor of the MacDougals time and time again. The Marlins’ pickup of MacDougal isn’t necessarily wrong – for some teams, a replacement level player can be an upgrade due to the uneven distribution of talent – but I think this move represents a philosophy we see too much in the major leagues, and that’s an unwillingness to take a chance in the back of the bullpen.

The literal answer to this question is, naturally, no. The perfect 5th outfielder is probably Ichiro Suzuki, or somebody similarly great. Obviously, that’s a pipe dream. In a league with 30 teams, the top 100 outfielders have found their places before teams can begin filling their 5th outfielder position. The Texas Rangers fulfilled their 5th outfielder need on Monday, adding Endy Chavez.

Chavez is, of course, no Ichiro. Chavez does, however, fill the position of fifth outfielder nearly perfectly for Texas. With David Murphy currently set to be the team’s 4th outfielder, the team would have been hard pressed to find an adequate defensive center fielder if the young Julio Borbon either lost time due to injury or was ineffective. Chavez is historically an excellent defender in CF, and he fills that void in the Rangers’ bench.

His bat isn’t great. With an almost complete lack of power (.097 career ISO), Chavez is limited to slapping out singles and taking the occasional walk. He can steal some bases, as shown by his 9 SBs against only 1 CS last season in only 182 PAs and an 82.6% SB rate since 2007. Even with the best of BABIP luck, his absolute ceiling is probably as an average hitter. His more likely wRC+ range of 85-90 still allows him to profile as a 1.0 to 1.5 win player over a full season. That makes him well worth a bench spot, especially on a $1 million deal.

He’s nearly the perfect fifth outfielder. In my view, the perfect fifth outfielder, much like Chavez, can fill in at all 3 outfield spots, is a suitable pinch runner or defensive replacement in the last inning, and won’t kill you at the plate, even if he might be below average. Above all, he can give all this production without much of a marginal cost.

The only place where Chavez diverges from my ideal 5th outfielder is in handedness. Between Murphy, Borbon, and Josh Hamilton, 3 out of the 4 current outfielders on the team were left handed, just as Chavez is. This limits platoon opportunities in an injury situation, but this is a minor quibble at best. A right handed hitter may have fit the situation better, but given how well Chavez fits in other more important areas, this isn’t important enough to make him a bad fit overall.

This is only the latest in a series of excellent move for the Rangers over the course of this offseason. The AL West is certainly shaping up as one of the most exciting divisions in baseball this year.

One number on ESPN’s Free Agent Tracker stands out above the rest. The Florida Marlins are the only team without any committed money to free agents on major league contracts this winter. They have added Seth McClung and Jose Veras on minor league contracts, but that’s the extent of their activity this offseason.

After an 87-75 year from a very young team, there was certainly room for optimism in the Marlins camp. Even with an 81-81 Pythagorean record and an 83-79 third order record, the Marlins appeared to be in position, with a few upgrades, to make a run at the postseason. Now, in February, the Marlins haven’t added a single player of note, and key bullpen piece Kiko Calero is a free agent and first baseman Nick Johnson has moved on to the Yankees.

Where does that leave the Marlins? That depends on which projection system you ask. PECOTA thinks the Marlins have a decent team, and at 82-80, that would leave them with a realistic, albeit small, chance at the postseason. CHONE and CAIRO, on the other hand, are not quite as optimistic. CHONE projects Florida for either 76 or 78 wins depending on which method you prefer, and CAIRO projects them for 79 wins and a measley 2.5 percent chance at reaching the playoffs.

It is not entirely surprising that the Marlins haven’t made any big moves. With the increases in player salary due to arbitration, in particular Josh Johnson and Dan Uggla, the Marlins’ salary stands at 34.75 million before minimum salary players, according to Cot’s Contracts. The team hasn’t eclipsed a 40 million dollar salary since 2005.

The Marlins are anywhere from 3 to 6 wins away from seriously competing for a playoff spot this summer. In the face of the MLB and players union demanding the team spend more money towards a possible playoff run, Jeffrey Loria has somehow managed to completely ignore the free agent market. Perhaps the Marlins simply couldn’t find the correct player to meet both their financial and competitive needs this winter. Regardless of why, the Marlins’ decision-making process will likely result in one fewer team in the NL East race come this summer.

Derek Jeter’s resurgent year has been well chronicled. He excelled in pretty much every facet at the game, posting a 142 wRC+ and a well above average UZR. Overall, at 7.4 WAR, he was simply one of the best players in the game.

Jeter’s offensive production had dropped mightily in 2008. He was still productive with the bat, with a 110 wRC+. Still, with his prior poor defense at SS, it remained to be seen if the decline phase of his career had started. Part of the issue was a drop in ISO to .107, the lowest of his career and by far his lowest since 2004.

The move to New Yankee Stadium seems to have been exactly what Jeter needed. Jeter’s inside-out offensive style is well known, and the dimensions at the New Yankee Stadium play directly into his hands. Of Jeter’s 15 home runs to right field in 2009, 11 came at the Yankees new park. Taking a look at his splits, we can see how big of a difference this made in Jeter’s resurgence.

Over the course of his career, Jeter has always excelled at going to the opposite field. While most right handed hitters lose their power to right field and their fly balls turn into outs, Jeter maintains a high line drive rate. His 28.5% LD rate to right field is 7.6% better than average, and many more of his fly balls (10.2% vs. 2.8% average) leave the yard, leading to a .407 wOBA to right field bolstered by a robust .211 ISO.

Although much of what hurt Jeter in ’08 was poor production on balls hit to left field – mostly from a 15.88 GB/FB ratio – what seems to have fueled his resurgence is his best season on balls hit to right field in years. He posted a 17.4% HR/FB in 2009, just under nine times better than the RHB average. This fantastic power surge was a driving force in his success in 2009. Given that 11 of his 15 HRs were at home and his home wOBA was 21 points higher despite a lower BABIP, we can surmise that Jeter’s batted balls in 2009 played the stadium perfectly.

Taking a look at data from HitTracker Online, we can take a deeper look into these home runs. Here is the data on the HRs to right field.

We can see that there weren’t any no doubters, especially among those hit at the new stadium. He’s not hitting home runs in the typical power hitter vein, but his propensity to hit the ball hard the other way means it is possible for this trend to continue at a park with favorable RF dimensions like New Yankee Stadium.

Jeter enters the last year of his current contract with New York this season. It’s hard to imagine Jeter in another uniform, and given the paradise that he’s finding himself in, I can’t imagine Jeter finishing his illustrious career anywhere else.

The Giants added some Madison Bumgarner insurance on Wednesday, signing SP Todd Wellemeyer to a one year minor-league contract with a base salary of $1 million if he makes the team. Wellemeyer figures to battle with Bumgarner and possibly Kevin Pucetas and Joe Martinez for the 5th spot in the San Francisco rotation.

With a very solid front four in Tim Lincecum, Matt Cain, Jonathan Sanchez, and Barry Zito already in place, the Giants have the makings of another excellent run preventing team. Still, depth could be a big problem going forward. If it turns out Bumgarner isn’t ready, Pucetas or Martinez could step in and deliver acceptable, albeit not particularly desirable, production in a 5th starter role. However, if one of the Giants front four went down for an extended period of time, a rotation with both Pucetas and Martinez would be exposed quickly, as both are projected for a 5.00+ ERA. Acceptable out of a 5th starter, but not out of a 4th.

Inviting Todd Wellemeyer to camp is a step in the right direction. With a non-guaranteed contract, the Giants assume none of the risk that Wellemeyer’s 2009 injuries are lingering. If Wellemeyer returns towards his 2009 form, he could quite easily post a sub-5.00 FIP and be a one-win type of starter, both a huge bargain at $1M and a good bridge to Bumgarner.

However, this is certainly no guarantee. Even if the injuries aren’t affecting him any more, Wellemeyer was never a great pitcher. His only truly productive year came in 2008, which is also the only year of his career in which he’s posted a BB/9 below 4.00. It’s possible that regression merely hit Wellemeyer hard in 2009, and his true talent level is simply not that of a major league quality pitcher.

For that reason, the Giants shouldn’t consider themselves ready for camp in terms of SP depth. They don’t need to make a huge financial investment, but there are players like John Smoltz and Pedro Martinez still available who likely wouldn’t cost much money and could push them closer to contention. CHONE has the Giants within 7-9 games of the division and CAIRO gives them a non-zero chance at the playoffs.

If the money is available, the Giants should bring in another quality SP to camp. Wellemeyer adds some depth, but given the risk surrounding all their potential 5th starters, Brian Sabean should not be complacent.

After coming off what can only be described as a terrible year with the Milwaukee Brewers, the team declined to pick up Braden Looper’s $6 million option. Now, as the date for pitchers and catchers to report inches closer and closer, Looper is still without a job. He is resistant to taking a minor league or non-guaranteed deal, and is likely looking for a multi-million dollar contract.

It is unlikely that his HR/FB remains at the crazy 15.8% mark that it was last year, but Looper has struggled with home runs since becoming a starter, and for that reason his effectiveness will be limited. Looper was converted to a starter after struggling as a closer, but in reality, his issues as both a closer and a starter stem from the same issue – a very high platoon split.

In both roles, it is impossible to avoid seeing opposite handed batter. Closers will see opposite-handed players come off the bench to maximize platoon leverage, and starters have to face the opposite-handed side of platoons.

Last year, Looper struggled in every controllable facet of pitching against lefties. He gave up significantly more HR and BB despite facing 46 fewer left handed batters, and after accounting for this difference, he still struck out fewer. His 6.82 FIP against lefties was well below replacement level, and even his 5.22 xFIP is dangerously near it. If Looper had ran something similar to his 4.83 FIP against righties, he could have provided at least a minimal value to the Brewers. Instead, he was nearly a win below replacement level.

This is essentially right in line with career norms for Looper, whose FIP against same-handed batters is over a run better than that against lefties, almost completely due to his penchant for allowing home runs to these batters. Over 1800 TBF vs. LHB and 2200 TBF vs. RHB, this suggests that there is a platoon split at work here, even if his true split likely isn’t quite a whole run per 9 innings.

That means that Looper would likely thrive in a role where he could be pulled against a run of left handed batters (or even just one), such as a middle relief role. With a 4.03 FIP in 2257 TBF vs. RHB, and over half of that accrued as a starter, we could reasonably expect a sub 3.50 FIP out of Looper in a role with limited exposure to LHBs, due to the bonus we typically see with the move from starter to reliever. That type of production, even in middle-relief type innings, may actually be more valuable than the near 5.00 FIP Looper would be projected to run as a starter.

It may not be the most attractive idea to Looper or his agent, but his best bet to be a productive major league player again may be in a role of this type.

Eric Gagne’s run from 2002 to 2004 is historic. Over this three-year period, the goggled Canadian saved a staggering 152 games against only 6 blown saves, including a streak of 84 straight. Gagne was truly dominant, as he compiled FIPs of 1.80, 0.86, and 2.05, good for 3.3, 4.5, and 3.1 WAR, respectively, in 2002-2004. His 2003 season of 4.5 wins was over half a win better than the second best RP season, K-Rod’s 2004.

Any pitcher who can sustain 12+ K/9s for three years is likely to have a pretty dominant run, and in order to do that the pitcher has to be able to shut down hitters on both sides of the plate. Indeed, Gagne pitched quite well against LHBs with the platoon advantage against him – he struck out nearly 8 more batters per 9 innings than he walked, and never allowed a FIP greater than 2.36 to lefties.

To truly tyrannize the league like Gagne did, however, it takes more than a slightly human 12:3 K:BB ratio against one side of the plate. Without truly destroying right handed battters, we would have seen more of the 2003-2005 run of Tom Gordon – 6 wins in 3 seasons. Nothing to sneeze at, but certainly not historic.

Right handed batters just could not beat Gagne. Of the 463 righties that faced Gagne, only 81 reached base. That’s a .174 OBP. Gagne struck out 208 of these batters, 44.9% of them, good for a 14.8 K/9, to complement a sub-2 BB/9. Let the utter ridiculousness of those numbers sink in for a bit, as they’re tame compared to what’s next.

Ready? Now, let’s restrict ourselves to 2003. Gagne faced 151 right handed batters that season en route to 55 saves. 84 of them struck out – just over 55%. Over 55% of hitters failed to make non-foul contact against Gagne. He only had to rely on his fielders to make plays against 45% of the batters he faced, whereas the average pitcher needs help on over 80% of hitters.

Only 26 batters reached base. Only one hit a home run, and only four others recorded extra base hits. With a nearly 12 K/BB ratio against righties and a microscopic HR rate, his FIP was -0.04. That’s not a typo: -0.04. Of course, having a -0.04 ERA is mathematically impossible, but that number is truly representative of what little right handed hitters could accomplish against him at his best.

By dominating such a large population of the league, Gagne cemented his status as one of the best closers in the league. It’s disappointing that his career was derailed as it was by injury, as his potential at the time was seemingly limitless. We can only speculate as to what could have been, but we are still left with a historic run, and one we should not forget.

The Houston Astros are certainly in a down phase in their history. After winning 84+ games every year from 2001 to 2005, the Astros’ age and lack of talent caught up to them. From 2006 to 2009, the Astros have been outscored by 232 runs. The only hope has come in the form of late runs in 2006 and 2008, giving management the idea that a playoff roster was in place, when in fact the last time the Astros even put an average team on the field was 2006, and even their 74 win season last year was overachieving, based on third-order wins, Pythagorean record, and team WAR.

With little help waiting on the farm and little talent already on board, most teams would treat 2010 as a lost season, and attempt to rebuild through trades and freely available talent. The Astros did not go down that route this winter. They did only bring in five free agents, but they committed 25 million dollars between the five, and one of the contracts was over multiple years.

Between these five players (Pedro Feliz, Brandon Lyon, Jason Michaels, Brett Myers, and Cory Sullivan), the Astros brought in only a projected 4.5 wins over the course of this deal, according to CHONE, and that’s assuming that Lyon maintains his projected .7 WAR production over the entire course of his three-year contract. Yes, in a market where the dollar value for wins essentially bottomed out, Ed Wade and Drayton McLane spent approximately 5.5 million dollars per win.

That’s without even accounting for the fact that the Astros are at a very low point on the win curve. With Drayton McLane attempting to sell the team, the Astros low on the win curve and desperately needing some talented draft picks and international talent to infuse in the system, the Astros spent 25 million on a minimal upgrade. These are the kind of management gaffes that lead to extended periods of mediocrity. The Astros need change, and they need it fast.

It has been well documented that free agent salaries have fallen since last offseason. Right now, the average dollar amount per marginal win that MLB teams are paying is $3.56M for hitters and $3.42M for pitchers, according to the Free Agent Tracker over at Sean Smith’s www.baseballprojection.com.

Has this dollar value persisted throughout the entire signing period, or have we seen a decline since free agents began signing in November? This graph will show us our answer (does not include Orlando Hudson’s contract).

The blue and red lines signify the means for batters and pitchers respectively.

There isn’t any discernible pattern or flow to this market. As we proceed into March, it’s possible that remaining talented players such as Johnny Damon and Felipe Lopez may have to accept below market deals in order to find roles on teams. However, this won’t have a large impact on the market as a whole – based on CHONE projections and the signings that we’ve seen this winter, the market for wins has indeed fallen below $4.0M, and seems to be settling around $3.5M, regardless of when the contract was signed.

As we push towards the end of the recession, we should see an upswing in this amount. If free agent salaries don’t rise towards or above $4.0M next season, it means that baseball (and likely America as a whole) is still feeling the effects of recession. Some indicators do suggest that the recession is headed towards an end (or over already), and so a surge in the winter of 2011 is likely.

There’s been a bit of movement on the free agent market this last week, so let’s project the movers: Ryan Garko, Orlando Hudson, Adam Kennedy.

Garko is moving to Seattle and will provide a right-handed bat opposite Casey Kotchman as well as some power off the bench. The big issue for Seattle has been that his signing may necessitate an 11-man pitching staff, almost unheard of in today’s game.

Hudson addresses one of Minnesota’s major issues as he fills a hole at 2B. This likely means that Nick Punto will start the season at 3B (where he is a much better defender by UZR) and Brendan Harris will move to the bench. Are they the team to beat now?

Kennedy moves to Washington, taking over a second base spot that has been in limbo this offseason. It had been speculated that Ian Desmond could start at SS, moving Cristian Guzman to 2B. That scenario seems less likely now – will Kennedy have a starting role after a good 2009?