It’s the winter now, and for MLB fans and front offices alike that means speculation abounds on various roster shuffles and mix-ups. From now until April, we will be seeing endless fantastical roster constructions from every team from media sources ranging from blogs to the mainstream media to everybody’s new favorite hangout, Twitter. For many teams heading into the market, the question of who will lead off is one of great concern. Not every team has an Ichiro Suzuki or a Grady Sizemore to set the table. What kind of player should these other teams look for?

Here is a simple list of qualities that the ideal leadoff hitter possesses:

1. Productive hitter

That’s the easiest way to put it. It certainly is better, if you have two similarly talented (in terms of overall production) hitters, to leverage the leadoff spot with a player with a higher OBP. Still, what I think is often forgotten by managers (and GMs, to a certain extent), is that the leadoff hitter bats the most times through the order. To best leverage the spot, you want somebody that first of all is a productive hitter, and second of all is an on-base threat.

Does it really matter, though? As analysts and students of the game, this is the exact sort of thing we like to know. Delving deeper, from The Book we see the leadoff hitter receives roughly 4.80 PAs per game and the 5th hitter only receives 4.34. Over 150 games, that means that the leadoff hitter receives roughly 70 more plate appearances. Over these 70 plate appearances, the amount of runs gained by switching a player from the #5 spot to the #1 spot who is 20 points of wOBA better is roughly one run. This may be erased by properly leveraging an on-base threat at the top of the lineup, but it certainly will not end up being significant to the point of a win or likely not even half a win.

GMs entering the offseason looking for hitters need not concern themselves with what lineup slot they set their players in. Defensive alignment and batter handedness factor into lineup construction more than leveraging a player’s specific OBP or SLG skills. If your team needs a 3B and “needs” a leadoff hitter, it may seem that Chone Figgins and his .363 career OBP is a great fit and Adrian Beltre and his .325 career OBP doesn’t work at all, but it’s just not true. Beltre’s a great fielder and an average hitter, and Figgins is a great (but probably not as good) fielder and an average hitter, and that’s what matters.

Does your team need a catcher for 2010? Well, you might be in some trouble. With Victor Martinez’s option picked up today (and Jason Varitek exercising his player option), here’s a list of free agent catchers who received more than 200 PAs last year, courtesy of Cot’s Contracts

Rod Barajas TOR (B)
Josh Bard WAS
Henry Blanco SD
Ramon Hernandez * CIN (B)
Jason Kendall MIL (B)
Bengie Molina SF (A)
Miguel Olivo KC (B)
Ivan Rodriguez TEX (B)
Yorvit Torrealba COL (B)
Gregg Zaun TB

*Cincinnati holds an $8.5MM club option

The average 2009 WAR of these players was 1.2. You’re not going to find any superstars out of this bunch, but there are a few interesting contributors in an extended backup or starting role this year. Although Miguel Olivo leads this bunch in 2009 WAR at 2.2, he was playing over his head (21.2% HR/FB rate), and is also a terrible defensive catcher from most reports. Gregg Zaun was second with 1.8 WAR, put up in 296 PAs between Baltimore and Tampa Bay.

Zaun’s .334 wOBA ranked 10th in the league among catchers with at least 200 PAs. Zaun did have some decent BABIP luck, with a .291 vs. a career mark (over 15 seasons) of .276. Still, Zaun’s combination of good plate discipline (10.6% walk rate/12.1% career) and roughly average power (.156 ISO/.137 career) at the catcher position makes him a very interesting piece. Pro-rated to 600 plate appearances, Zaun’s 2009 was worth 3.6 wins.

At his career wOBA mark of .316, Zaun is worth closer to 2.8 wins, which is still excellent, especially when compared to the rest of the catchers on the market. Interestingly, the Rays decided to buy him out for 500,000 dollars, rather than accept his $2MM option for 2010. Word is that Zaun is interested in returning to Tampa given that he is from the area and will have the opportunity to start, and may take a deal for less than the 2 million dollars that his option would have paid him.

Zaun may be one of the rare cases where it’s not all about the money, and if he wants to stay in Tampa Bay, more power to him. If he’s actually trying to get top dollar out of the market, however, Zaun needs to look elsewhere. The Rays have little leverage – their catchers accrued a staggering -28 wRAA last year, thanks to Dioner Navarro’s mighty struggles. The Rays definitely have need. The Brewers, Giants, Mets, and Blue Jays also have obvious needs at catcher, thanks to free agency and incompetency, and catcher is always a position where teams are looking to improve.

Zaun’s skills appear to be worth about 8 million dollars in a platooning role (~400 PAs), and more in a starting role. If the Rays actually sign Zaun to a contract of less than 2 million, it could be the steal of the offseason. If they lose him, it may be one of the biggest mistakes.

Over the weekend, the Minnesota Twins picked up their 10.5 million dollar option on RF Michael Cuddyer to keep him through 2010. Cuddyer has been a member of all five of the Twins playoff teams from the first decade of the millenium.

EDIT: Cuddyer’s option was for 2011. I regret the mistake, but the assumptions in this article still hold. 10.5M is too much to commit to Cuddyer.

Still, the Twins are the epitome of the small market team. 10.5 million dollars is certainly not an insignificant amount for them. The Twins have never broken a 75 million dollar payroll, and their average payroll since 2007 is approximately $65 million. It’s hard to say where the Twins payroll will be next year. They can expect an influx of revenue due to the opening of Target Field, but given current economic times, a significant increase in team salary is unlikely.

A liberal estimate of the Twins 2011 payroll of $70 million leaves Cuddyer as 15% of their payroll. Cuddyer’s offensive performance in 2009 was among the best of his career. His .370 wOBA tied his previous career high from 2006, and his 32 HRs marked a career high. He was worth 4.2 wins above replacement from a purely offensive standpoint last year.

Of course, we don’t measure value without including defense, and that’s where Cuddyer’s value sinks. Cuddyer has bounced between positions in his career, but since 2006 nearly all of his innings have come in RF. Familiarity has not improved Cuddyer’s skills in the field, as he has never put up a positive UZR in RF, bottoming out at 17 runs below average this year. With a -10 UZR/150 in RF, Cuddyer’s defensive contributions roughly equal those of a DH, and with his age 31 season coming up, it’s not likely that we’ll see improvements anytime soon.

As his career numbers suggest, Cuddyer’s probably not quite as bad in RF as he was this year, but he ‘s also probably not quite as good a hitter either. His ISO ballooned to .245 this year after two straight years under .200, mostly thanks to a ridiculous 17.1% HR/FB ratio. Going forward, his career wOBA of .346 is a much better estimate than his .370 wOBA from 2009. A .346 wOBA, over 600 PAs, is only worth roughly 8 runs above average. With the defensive contributions of a DH, that comes out to roughly 8 runs above replacement, or 0.8 WAR.

It’s very hard for a team to compete when paying a starting player 10.5 million dollars to contribute less than 1 win. It’s even harder for a team in the economic condition that the Twins are. This move seems more like an appeal to the fans rather than an attempt to build a winning team. The better way to appease your fans, however, is to win baseball games. Cuddyer is a slightly above average hitter who is a complete defensive non-factor. He helped the Twins win games as a cost-controlled young player, but the money he will make can help the team much more than he can. The Twins needed to let him go.

The J.J. Putz era in New York ended yesterday, as the Mets bought out the final year of Putz’s contract. With the last year at 8.6 million dollars and the closer position locked up by Francisco Rodriguez, it is a no-brainer for the Mets to pay the 1 million dollar buyout and avoid locking up a significant sum of money on a questionable set-up man.

How remarkably quickly it seems that one of the potential best 8th and 9th inning combos in baseball has been disassembled. While giving up a seven player package, including major league talent in the form of Aaron Heilman, Jason Vargas, Endy Chavez, and Joe Smith, for a small package centered around an expensive reliever appears to be wrong at a glance, due to the fungibility of those kinds of pitchers, this deal brought things to a whole new level.

To begin with, Putz spent much of 2008 on the DL and did not pitch like the 2 to 3 win relief talent that he showed in 2006 and 2007. Although his fastball velocity hadn’t dropped, something was clearly off with his stuff. His BB rate soared and his LD% rose by 3 points. His 3.78 FIP wasn’t terrible, but was only worth .6 wins in 46 innings pitched. All things considered, with the fungibility of relievers, Putz’s age (31 entering 2009) and an injury in 2008, chances were low that Putz would bring the Mets 13.6 million dollars in value in ’09 and ’10.

It hit the fan for Putz in 2009. His control problems persisted and his strikeout rate plummeted. Now, as a 32-year old-reliever running a 1.00 K/BB ratio, Putz hits the market again. He just screams reclamation project. It will be interesting to see what team bites.

From the Mets’ standpoint, they sunk 6 million dollars and 7 players into acquiring Putz, Jeremy Reed, and Sean Green. The trade has produced 0.1 WAR from Putz, -0.7 WAR Reed, and -.1 WAR from Green. Unless Reed and Green somehow become productive major leaguers, this trade will go down as historically bad for New York.

The Mets bullpen will likely be a focal point for the front office again this winter. We’ll find out if they’ve learned their lesson.

They got it right. Hideki Matsui was unequivocally the right choice for World Series MVP. His raw numbers were incredible. In 15 plate appearances, the Phillies only managed to get Matsui out 5 times. His 8 hits, 2 doubles, and 2 HRs add up to a .761 wOBA.

Of course, context neutral numbers don’t tell the whole story. in the clinching game 6, Matsui’s grand night tallied a .339 WPA, effectively single-handedly winning the game for New York. Matsui also led Yankee hitters in game 2, where Matsui’s go-ahead home run led to a .223 WPA and a 3-1 Yankee victory. Overall, Matsui totalled .639 WPA, good for the best in the series.

As such, he was a no-brainer. The more interesting discussion, in my mind, stems from discussions from Wednesday afternoon, prior to game 6, regarding Chase Utley‘s validity as an MVP candidate. As everybody knows, Utley had an impressive series, tying Reggie Jackson’s record with 5 home runs in a World Series. Thanks to an 0-3 dud in game 6, Utley’s line fell to 6-21 with 3 walks, but all 6 of hits went for extra bases, resulting in a .555 wOBA.

Again, we need to give these numbers context. Utley’s two home run games in games 1 and 5 combined for a .455 WPA and his game 4 (2-4, 2B) was worth another .131. Unfortunately for Utley and the Phillies, that accounts for all of his hits in this World Series. His hitless games in games 2, 3, and 6 (all won by the Yankees) combined for a -.377 WPA, essentially cancelling out games 1 and 4.

Utley’s power performance was impressive. Still, we can’t forget about the bad games. Although Alex Rodriguez and Johnny Damon didn’t have any games, in terms of raw hitting, that compared to Utley. A-Rod, however, put up .269 WPA in game 4 with his game winning double, and Johnny Damon put up .250 in the same game with an RBI single, a hit in the 9th inning, and the legendary double steal that led to the game winning run. Both A-Rod (.330 WPA) and Damon (.421 WPA) had better overall series than Utley, by this measure.

For the Phillies, the best candidate is Cliff Lee. No Phillies hitter consistently put up solid games. Lee more than singlehandedly won game 1 with his memorable complete game (.519 WPA), and pitched well enough in game 5 to lead Philadelphia to their only other series win (.085 WPA). That leaves Lee with .604 WPA for the series, nearly as much as Matsui.

Mariano Rivera, fittingly, finished the game for the Yankees. He did pitch well this series, as he didn’t allow a run, but he only saw one high leverage situation (game 2, +.166 WPA). His contribution was important (total of +.259 WPA), but pales in comparison to Matsui’s and Lee’s, and is still less than Rodriguez and Damon.

The fans got this one right. Hideki Matsui had the game of his MLB career tonight, and he completely deserves this honor.

Game 7, of course, is always living in the realm of “if necessary,” so for all we know any and all analysis on the topic could be moot by tomorrow. However, let’s humor ourselves for a bit. With Cole Hamels having pitched Game 3 on Saturday, he would be on four days’ rest on Thursday for Game 7. With the Phillies now having committed to Pedro Martinez for Game 6, that leaves Charlie Manuel with the choice between J.A. Happ and Cole Hamels.

The real answer here is both. There is absolutely no reason, in a Game 7 situation with essentially every pitcher available besides the Game 6 starter, that a starting pitcher should be allowed to face the lineup more than one time. This is the reason that the league average FIP for starters (roughly 4.45) is so much higher than that for relievers (roughly 4.20). This difference is even more exaggerated when we consider short relievers and remove mop-up types from consideration. This is because the short reliever does not need to pace himself, and doesn’t have to face a lineup the second time, and especially not a third time, where the starter suffers even more.

Apart from Hamels (3.72 FIP as a starter) and Happ (4.46 FIP as a starter), the Phillies could also call on Joe Blanton (4.45 FIP as a starter) off three days rest to pitch an inning or two. They also have Chan Ho Park (2.10 reliever FIP), Ryan Madson (3.23), and Brad Lidge (5.45 FIP, but 3.19 career).

Between these six pitchers, the Phillies could easily get nine quality innings. The difference between starting and relieving comes out to nearly a run, but just for the sake of argument, let’s use a more conservative estimate of .75. Then we see Hamels at roughly 3.00 FIP, and Happ and Blanton sitting at roughly 3.75. Park is probably not a 2.10 FIP true talent, and probably is closer to his 3.90 average from the last two years. Madson has been at 3.20 the last two years, but was at 4.20 as recently as 2007. He fits closer to 3.50 FIP for our estimate. Lidge, on the other hand, has a 2.19 FIP season in 2008 and a 3.88 FIP season in 2007. Giving weight to recent performance, a good estimate for Lidge would be 3.95.

In that case, consider this pitching plan. Hamels starts, pitches three innings. Happ relieves for two innings, and then hands off to Blanton, Park, Lidge, and Madson in some order to finish the game. At no point do the Phillies have to rely on a player with a reliever FIP above 4.00. Leaving Hamels or Happ in past the first part of the lineup would certainly result in a worse pitcher on the mound in the 3rd or 4th inning.

Regardless of how they do it, the Philadelphia Phillies will need any competitive advantage they can get if they reach a Game 7, where they will be facing one of the league’s top pitchers in C.C. Sabathia, and will also have to deal with Mariano Rivera at some point in the game. Runs will likely be at a premium, and this is the Phillies best bet at suppressing the Yankees offense in Game 7.

In the first inning of Game 5, Shane Victorino was hit in the hand with a pitch as he squared to bunt. Victorino showed signs that the hand was bothering him. Of course, with the machismo culture of sports as it is, Victorino sucked it up and played through the 8th inning, when the Phillies had a comfortable enough lead to replace him. This brings up one of my personal favorite questions regarding the world of baseball, and in fact all sport. Does leaving Victorino in actually help the Phillies?

The process of answering this question is quite simple. We need to look at what the gap in production between a Phillies team with a healthy Victorino and a Phillies team without him.

The obvious replacement is Ben Francisco, as there’s no way that Matt Stairs sees any time in the outfield. The first defensive alignment is to just put Francisco in CF, where he is a -15 UZR/150 in a tiny sample size, but that seems close to where his -2.2 UZR in LF would place him given positional adjustments, a 10 run difference between LF and CF.

The other alignment is to move Werth to CF and play Francisco in RF. Francisco does have experience in RF, and played at a similar level to in RF. Werth is a fantastic outfielder, and by all accounts, he could handle playing CF and play it very well. His +15.4 UZR/150 in RF translates to roughly a +5 UZR in CF. It’s not a perfect estimate, but it works for the exercise here.

So you’re either replacing a +5 CF in Victorino with another +5 CF in Werth and then losing roughly 20 runs between Werth and Francisco in RF, or you lose roughly 20 runs between Victorino and Francisco in CF. Either way, it’s a 20 run difference over 150 games, or .13 runs per game.

At the plate, the loss is much, much lower. Francisco has a career wOBA of .337, which lines up perfectly with his numbes from 2008 and 2009. Victorino has been in the .350-.355 range since 2007. His .354 wOBA from 2009 will serve as a good estimate. Then, over four PAs remaining in the game, the Phillies lose roughly .06 runs. Over five, they lose about .07. For the sake of argument, we’ll take the biggest difference here, .07. Then we have the switch from Victorino to Francisco as a .2 run difference in Game 6.

The question that we can’t answer is the impact that Victorino’s injury has on his performance. Seeing him throw gingerly in the outfield and shake his hand after a later at-bat makes me question if he was at 100%. Is he a .320 wOBA hitter after the injury? Lower? Does he lose a good chunk of his throwing ability? Of course, I can’t answer these questions. I do, however, think it’s fair to say that there’s uncertainty here. If his hand is really bothering him and keeping him from playing to the best of his ability, Victorino should help his team and take himself out, instead of valuing machismo over all else.

Melky Cabrera left last night’s game with a hamstring injury in the 6th inning, leaving Joe Girardi without his starting CF. Sitting on the Yankee bench was one Brett Gardner, who entered the game in his place. An injury to a starting CF can be devastating for a team, but the Yankees carry an excellent replacement in Gardner.

Gardner is a fan favorite in New York, and is especially noted for his speed. His speed score of 9.1 ranks as the best in the major leagues this year. We’ve also seen his speed on the bases translate to range in the field, as Gardner has posted a spectacular UZR of +17.1 in 114 DG in CF. According to Tom Tango’s Fan Scouting Report, he ranks as a well above average fielder as well.

Gardner is likely not a +23 UZR/150 fielder, but with positive marks from the fans, we can be reasonably certain that he is a solid amount above average. As a htiter, Gardner’s main value comes from his baserunning. His 83.8% stolen base rate in 31 attempts made him a viable threat every time he reached base, which he did in over 34% of plate appearances. His rise in walk rate was the main contributor to his .337 wOBA in 2009. Given his terrible 2008 and the small sample we are given, we have to assume right now that Gardner’s true talent lies near his career wOBA of .319.

Melky Cabrera in 2009 showed sustainable improvement off of his rookie campaign, as his BB% and ISO rose to career highs and his BABIP rose from his 2008 low of .273 to .291. His true talent probably falls somewhere between his wOBA from this year (.331) and 2007 (.316). Cabrera’s defense has also improved each year since 2007, but he’s still a far cry from a defensive wizard. Cabrera’s career has him as a -5 UZR/150 player, but giving weight to recent seasons suggests he’s closer to a -2 or -3 UZR/150 fielder.

What we see here is two similar hitters and one excellent fielder. Cabrera’s switch hitting makes him the better option against left-handed starting pitchers, but against righties, Gardner’s combination of fielding skill, on-base skill, and ability to wreak havoc as a runner makes him an excellent play. If Melky Cabrera is unable to go in the remainder of the series, expect to see Gardner take over in center field and the Yankees to not miss a beat.

Los Angeles Dodgers GM Ned Colletti discussed some of his offseason priorities on the Dan Patrick show on Thursday (which can be heard here). Colletti discussed, among other things, addressing second base with offseason moves. After all, it is hardly surprising that any team starting Ron Belliard at 2B in the playoffs would look to improve at that position.

The free agent market at 2B is pretty bare. R.J. already discussed Felipe Lopez, who is a type A free agent who just completed a career year at age 30. Placido Polanco will be the only other type A free agent to hit the market, assuming San Francisco picks up Freddy Sanchez‘s option. Akinori Iwamura is another interesting option. Iwamura is coming off of injury and his 4.25M option will likely be too expensive for the Rays to exercise, especially given Ben Zobrist’s rise.

Iwamura’s skills play as those of an average 2B, or a rough 2.25 win player. There is one other free agent who won’t cost the Dodgers any draft picks and plays at or above that level. That player, Orlando Hudson, was on the Dodgers roster this season. His one-year, incentive-laden contract expired, leaving him again in the undesirable position of a type-A free agent in a declining market. Hudson’s contract incentives earned him just under $8M overall. As a 3 win player, that’s roughly $4 million in surplus value.

Hudson is 32, but his type A status will allow the Dodgers to make a move for a team-favorable one-year deal. His .342 wOBA was his worst since 2005, but with park adjustment, his offensive contribution equaled his contribution in 2008, when he had a .358 wOBA with Arizona. His fielding in recent years doesn’t stand up to his time with the Blue Jays (+27 UZR in four years), and has slipped below average in recent years. Still, his hitting well outweighs any defensive shortcomings. He hasn’t been below 2 WAR since 2003. He gives you consistency at the plate and in the field, and most importantly, the Dodgers are in an excellent position to bargain with Hudson.

Unless the Dodgers are willing to give away draft picks and sign Placido Polanco or take a chance on a 30-year-old average player coming off injury in the form of Akinori Iwamura, there is really only one option for Los Angeles. Re-sign Orlando Hudson, and maybe play him this time if they make it back to the postseason.

Here’s how the Philadelphia Phillies lineup card read for the opening game of the World Series last night.

1.Jimmy Rollins, SS
2.Shane Victorino, CF
3.Chase Utley, 2B
4.Ryan Howard, 1B
5.Jayson Werth, RF
6.Raul Ibanez, DH
7.Ben Francisco, LF
8.Pedro Feliz, 3B
9.Carlos Ruiz, CA

It’s possible that nothing here jumps off the page. Rollins and Victorino are typical 1 / 2 hitters; Utley is the Phillies best hitter; Howard fits the cleanup spot perfectly, and the rest of the lineup just sort of falls into place.

However, this is what we see when we look at the handedness of the batters: S-S-L-L-R-L-R-R-R Specifically, what stands out is the fact that Charlie Manuel is unnecessarily batting two left handed batters in a row: Chase Utley and Ryan Howard.

Right now, the Yankee bullpen has two left handed relievers in Damaso Marte and Phil Coke, both of whom are more than adequate against left handed batters. Joe Girardi should have no qualms about using either of these pitchers against Utley and Howard in the middle or late innings. This is the situation an opposing manager dreams of with regards to the LOOGY – you can use one of your lefty specialists to get out two batters in a row – in this case, the opponents two best hitters – and still have another one for another situation later in the game.

One of the potential arguments against this line of reasoning is that Chase Utley doesn’t show much of a platoon split and even showed a reverse platoon split this year (see graph). However, from The Book, left handed batters tend to show a platoon split of almost .027 points of wOBA. With the amount of variation present in this statistic, 1,000 PAs – roughly the amount that Utley has vs. LHPs in his career – are required to regress the observed platoon split halfway to the mean. So we should still assume that Utley will perform lower against left handed pitching.

And then consider the fact that Manuel leads his lineup off with two switch hitters. Switch hitters, intuitively, have a tiny platoon split compared to non-switch hitters. Then there’s the simple solution of merely switching Victorino and Utley in the lineup. It breaks the duo of left handed batters, and as an added bonus, batting Utley in the second spot leverages his talent slightly better. In the second spot, Utley will receive more PAs per game and will be less likely to bat with nobody on and 2 outs, as frequently happens in the first inning of games.

This decision had a minimal impact on Manuel’s Phillies in Game 1, as New York’s bullpen pitchers of either hand were ineffective. There is no reason, however, to continue to give your opponent a competitive advantage such as this, and Philly fans should hope to see a lineup change in Game 2.