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Eric Chavez Reborn in New York

There was a time when Eric Chavez was on a hall-of-fame-level career path. Through 2006 — his age-28 season and his eighth full major league campaign — Chavez had a .271/.350/.489 batting line, 212 home runs and six well-deserved (at least most of them) Gold Gloves. Basically, if you think Scott Rolen should be a hall-of-famer, you can see Chavez traveling the same path — especially considering the pitcher-friendly confines of the Oakland Coliseum:


Source: FanGraphsEric Chavez, Scott Rolen

This year, Chavez is putting up a .303/.362/.547 (139 wRC+) season in 224 plate appearances with the Yankees. He’s been a more-than-able replacement for Alex Rodriguez, and he’s been a surprisingly big reason why the Yankees have been able to pull away from the pack in the AL East.

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Hill, Cano, and the Cost of the Fly Ball

Aaron Hill hit 62 home runs between the 2009 and 2010 seasons. It took him just two years to over triple the home run output of more than 1800 prior plate appearances.

Hill is just one beneficiary of Rogers Centre’s kind left field, a list that now includes Jose Bautista, Edwin Encarnacion and apparently Jeff Mathis. The main difference between pre-2009 Hill and post-2009 Hill was a change in fly ball rates — an increase of about seven percentage points. By lofting the ball and utilizing that left field, Hill turned from an unremarkable contact-hitting second basemen into an elite power force at the position — for reference, Robinson Cano has 61 home runs over the past two calendar years (covering 320 games).

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Jack Moore FanGraphs Chat – 8/14/12


Prince Fielder: Hitter With Power

There’s a distinction to be made between the terms “power hitter” and “hitter with power.”

The former typically lives and dies with three true outcomes — maybe only two if they lack discipline. Adam Dunn perfectly represents this group, a hitter who would be nothing without his ability to mash the ball 500 feet. Jose Bautista has other skills, but driving fly balls out of the park tends to define his performance. Other examples include Carlos Pena, Russell Branyan, Mark Reynolds.

And then you have the hitters with power. These are the guys the scouts note for their “hit tool” first and their mammoth power second. They can do it all — make contact, draw a few walks, and it just so happens that when they make contact the ball goes pretty far too. Think David Wright, Albert Pujols, Joey Votto, Robinson Cano, Ryan Braun.

Prince Fielder broke into the majors as a power hitter. He struck out often thanks to his uppercut, all-or-nothing swing. But over the last few years, we’ve seen him reshape himself as a hitter with power.

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Lyle Overbay: Sneaky Stretch Addition?

Lyle Overbay is available. The 35-year-old was designated for assignment July 31 by the Diamondbacks, a move that set him to clear waivers Friday and become a free agent should no team take him off Arizona’s hands.

It’s understandable why the Diamondbacks let Overbay go. He only mustered two hits in his final 25 at-bats for the team as Paul Goldschmidt established himself as the everyday first baseman. No platoon necessary there, and with 40-man roster spots required to make deadline math work out, Overbay was out.

But even with his brutal finish, Overbay hit .292/.367/.449 (112 wRC+) for the Diamondbacks and has a three-year line of .248/.330/.413 (100 wRC+). Average hitters are scarce in August. Can Overbay still impact a playoff race?

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Jack Moore FanGraphs Chat – 8/7/12


Three Post-Waiver Trade Targets: Pitchers

Dave Cameron already covered the best and most obvious candidate in Cliff Lee here. Here are three more pitchers who could get moved as a post-waiver deal:

Brandon McCarthy

McCarthy could potentially pass through waivers due to the shoulder injury he suffered back on June 24. Although he’s already in the middle of a rehab assignment, he was crushed (six runs in 3.2 innings) in his first start. As such, he could potentially slip through waivers.

Although it would seem odd for the A’s to deal a pitcher of McCarthy’s caliber — 2.54 ERA, 3.39 FIP and coming off a similar season last year — they have much bigger needs than starting pitching right now. Oakland starting pitchers notched a 3.60 ERA and 3.26 FIP with McCarthy out.

Instead, the Athletics have major needs on the left side of the infield. Brandon Inge (.221/.278/.398, 82 wRC+) has somewhat stabilized the position, giving them at least some pop and a good glove. But shortstop remains a disaster, with Brandon Hicks’s .183/.246/.417 in 65 PA the best hitting performance the club has seen at the position this season. Cliff Pennington and Eric Sogard own wRC+ marks of 51 and 42 respectively.

McCarthy’s is eligible for free agency after the season. He is clearly good enough to help the A’s win in 2012, but if the A’s can fetch a reasonable shortstop for him, the upgrade could be bigger than the upgrade he presents over Bartolo Colon or A.J. Griffin or recent callup Dan Straily. The shortstop market was so rough prior to the waiver deadline, though, so there just might not be a match out there.

Josh Beckett

Beckett, due $31.5 million over the next two seasons and having his next start skipped to boot, should have no trouble clearing waivers. He’s having his usual even-year bad season (at least in terms of results), posting a 4.54 ERA. His strikeout rate is a career low 6.81 per nine innings and injuries have limited him to just 18 starts. Still, he has a FIP- of 82 and showed as recently as last season he can still put up elite results with his solid peripherals, notching a 68 ERA- to go with an 84 FIP-.

The Rangers were among the teams to show interest in Beckett prior to the trading deadline and could remain on the Rangers’ radar should he clear waivers, although the Ryan Dempster . However, despite classic media-driven issues such as those surrounding a round of golf in May, Beckett likely hasn’t done enough to force himself out — the Red Sox likely aren’t willing to take a discounted price just to get rid of him.

Randy Wolf

The Brewers would love to get rid of Randy Wolf not only because of the price tag — he has just over $3 million remaining on this year’s deal as well as a $1.5 million buyout of next year’s option — but also because the Brewers may want the opportunity to give their younger players some chances in the major leagues. The Brewers are trying to see what they have in players like Michael Fiers, Marco Estrada, Mark Rogers and also minor leaguers like Wily Peralta and Tyler Thornburg. Once Shaun Marcum returns from his injury, there will only be two spots for those youngsters (after Yovani Gallardo, Marcum and Wolf).

Wolf has been horrible this season, with a 5.45 ERA and 4.78 FIP. His 2.10 K/BB is actually slightly better than last season, when he notched a 98 ERA-, but the home run issues have returned, as Wolf is allowing 1.36 HR/9. The upside is minimal, but ZiPS projects a 4.29 ERA the rest of the way, which could be an improvement on a few fifth starters for contending teams. Jayson Stark said the Brewers would trade Randy Wolf “for nothing if you take the money,” so the risk for an acquiring team would be minimal. A team with a fly ball friendly park might be able to make it work for a tiny cost.


Three Post-Waiver Trade Targets: Hitters

Alfonso Soriano

Soriano’s power remains alive in his age-36 season. The sixth-year Cub owns a .499 slugging percentage thanks to 19 home runs and 22 doubles in 359 at-bats for a .226 ISO. This year, the hits are falling in as well, giving him a solid .272/.322/.499 line, enough for a 113 wRC+. Although his 2.9 WAR is inflated by an extremely iffy +12 UZR, he’s having a productive year for the second time in three seasons.

But it’s still not an $18 million season, and although Soriano is worth playing and even worth paying a moderate sum for, the Cubs want nothing to do with his $36 million owed over the next two seasons. If they can get a team to eat any sort of significant chunk of that contract, we might see Soriano man a corner for a playoff-contending team. The Tigers were connected in rumors as well, as the Giants, but the Hunter Pence acquisition likely closes that door.

Michael Cuddyer

Cuddyer is showing the kind of power boost expected from a player moving to Coors Field from Target Field. His ISO has inflated from .176 to a solid .226, with just five fewer home runs (15) in nearly 200 fewer plate appearances.

However, the increase in his quality of contact has been mitigated by an inability to actually make contact. His 19.5% strikeout rate is his highest since 2007, lowering his batting average and OBP to .260 and .317 respectively. The result is a mere 104 wRC+ out of a 33-year-old with $21 million remaining over two seasons on his contract. Again, useful, and a potential improvement for some teams, but not worth the money.

So nobody would claim him, one would think, except Jeff Passan noted at least one general manager would “love to overpay Cuddyer.” Either way, the Rockies get a chance to work out a deal with a claiming team or Cuddyer passes through and the entire market is available – if, of course, Dan O’Dowd and crew are willing to deal.

Jeff Francoeur

Francoeur is in the midst of his worst year ever, hitting .238/.275/.366 (66 wRC+), with his .128 ISO his lowest since his disastrous 2008 season (.239/.294/.359, 70 wRC+). That season was the beginning of the end in Atlanta, even though he got 324 more pitiful (65 wRC+) plate appearances in 2009 with Atlanta before his traded to the Mets.

And so his path as a Royal becomes extremely similar to his tenures with Atlanta and New York. Start out hot – 117 wRC+ in debut year with Kansas City, 126 with Atlanta, 115 with New York – follow up with a big fizzle, and finish with a disappointing trade for a non-asset.

Francoeur’s clubhouse presence has convinced teams to add him despite similarly horrible seasons to his 2012 to date – he had a 65 wRC+ and a 76 wRC+ prior to his last two trades respectively. And he does have two marketable and easily-leveraged skills: a bat that typically crushes left-handers (.292/.339/.484 career line, although just .226/.268/.396 this year) and an arm that haunts opposing baserunners.

Teams won’t eat much of Francoeur’s $9.5 million remaining price tag, but the Royals shouldn’t require much to trade him – Wil Myers is ready and waiting to take his spot, and he won’t be up just to sit on the bench.


Can Middlebrooks Excel Without Discipline?

When the Red Sox dealt Kevin Youkilis to the White Sox in June, it was as much a vote of confidence for young third baseman Will Middlebrooks as anything else. The trade left Middlebrooks as the only MLB-ready third baseman in the organization (Mauro Gomez doesn’t count), meaning the Red Sox were ready to let it ride on any would-be rookie growing pains.

Such pains haven’t surfaced yet. Middlebrooks owns a .301/.331/.525 line on the season, good for a 126 wRC+, tying him for eighth among third basemen with at least 250 plate appearances. All this comes despite 62 strikeouts against 10 walks.

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Rangers Swoop In On Ryan Dempster

With Ryan Dempster unwilling to go to Atlanta and the Dodgers unwilling to pay up, the door opened on this trading deadline afternoon for the Rangers to swoop in and grab one of the season’s most surprising starting pitchers. Texas will send right-hander Kyle Hendricks and infielder Christian Villanueva to the Cubs to complete the deal.

For the Rangers, dealing with injuries to Neftali Feliz and Colby Lewis as well as the ineffectiveness of Roy Oswalt and Scott Feldman, starting pitching suddenly became a need. The Rangers are six games clear of a Wild Card and a near-lock to make the playoffs, but the Athletics and Angels are within 3.5 and 4.0 games respectively, and with the Angels nabbing Zack Greinke a division title is by on means locked up. The Rangers sensed a need for starting depth and pounced.

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