It’s hard to believe that just six years ago, 23-year-old Dontrelle Willis threw 236.1 innings for the Florida Marlins and logged one of the better seasons from a starting pitcher over the past decade — 2.63 ERA, 2.99 FIP, and 6.2 WAR.

Since then, Willis has gone from Cy Young contender to replacement-level pitcher. He has become a major-league journeyman, playing with four organizations over the last four years and trying to re-discover the spark that once made him a star.

In that time frame, though, he compiled a 6.15 ERA over 199 innings with more walks (156) than strikeouts (139).

Despite those lackluster numbers, things appeared brighter this year in Cincinnati. Reds’ pitching coach Bryan Price helped smooth out Willis’ mechanics and focused on staying behind the baseball more effectively. He started 13 games in Triple-A Louisville to begin the year and dominated hitters. The walk rate was back down to 2.39 BB/9, and his 2.63 ERA earned him a mid-season promotion to the big leagues.

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Theo Epstein has officially joined the Chicago Cubs — which has largely thrown the baseball media into a collective frenzy — but another high-profile GM position remains wide open in Los Angeles.

The Angels’ GM opening is very attractive in many ways. The organization dished out $138.5M in contracts in 2011, ranking ahead of the Cubs as the fourth highest payroll in the majors, so the monetary limitations are relatively non-existent. The farm system also boasts elite prospects — such as Mike Trout, Jean Segura, and Kaleb Cowart — which lays the groundwork for potential sustainable success. The city of Los Angeles also packs a substantial number fans into the stadium, offering a consistent stream of revenue for the organization. The Angels finished the 2011 season with the fifth-highest average home attendance — 39,090 per night.

Despite all of those enticing aspects of the GM position with the Angels, significant drawbacks exist for any potential candidate, and they could deter a current GM from legitimately considering a switch. After all, Theo Epstein actively pursued the Chicago Cubs over the Los Angeles Angels for a reason, and it’s not all about organizational history. Read the rest of this entry »

As advanced statistics and sabermetrics have become more integrated with the game of baseball, it has become a more widely held belief that pitchers have limited effect on what happens after an opposing batter puts the ball into play. Pitchers can generate ground balls, of course, but they must still rely upon their team’s defense to convert those grounder into outs.

Statistics such as FIP and SIERA attempt to isolate a pitcher’s true performance on the mound. When assessing a pitcher’s skill, however, scouts assess how well a guy can keep the baseball on the ground (or at least inside the ballpark), avoid walks and strike out batters. Thus, it follows that pitchers who are above-average at all three of those important skills will — on average — be more successful than pitchers who struggle with one or more of the three. Read the rest of this entry »

David Freese has become a household name amongst the baseball community over the past two weeks.

It’s not difficult to see why. It’s an incredibly easy story to tell. Freese attended high school in Wildwood, MO — which is just 30 miles away from St. Louis — and spent his childhood dreaming of playing professional baseball for the Cardinals. You can almost picture him as a fifth or sixth grade boy out taking grounders at the neighborhood ballpark, pretending to be Ozzie Smith at shortstop and firing the baseball over to Gregg Jefferies at first base.

Now, at 28-years-old, he is the National League Championship Series MVP and a hometown hero, after hitting .425/.465/.850 with five doubles and four home runs through the first two series of the postseason for the very team about which he grew up dreaming.

That is not what makes David Freese an interesting baseball story, though. That is simply the story that generates page views and sells newspapers, especially amongst the St. Louis Cardinals’ fanbase.

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Quick. Name a starting pitcher on the New York Yankees from the mid-2000’s.

Randy Johnson and Mike Mussina are the gimmes. Andy Pettitte. Javier Vazquez. Carl Pavano. Kevin Brown. Orlando Hernandez. Chien-Ming Wang.

Chien-Ming Wang. The Taiwanese sensation is famous enough in his home country to incite a murder, but is routinely overlooked when reminiscing over quality starters throughout the past decade.

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Nelson Cruz compiled yet another solid campaign for a corner outfielder, hitting .263/.312/.509 with 29 home runs in 124 games. The 31-year-old Dominican has always been known for his behemoth-like raw power and featured that brute strength on Monday afternoon in a three home-run game against the Detroit Tigers, including a walk-off grand slam — the first ever in postseason play.

(Robin Ventura hit a walk-off grand slam in Game 5 of the 1999 NLCS for the New York Mets — but his teammates mobbed him after rounding first base, so he was technically only awarded a single.)

Cruz came up through the Brewers’ organization and was rated the #8 prospect in the system by Baseball America in 2005. In three separate cups of coffee in the big leagues, though, he was clearly overmatched and acquired the dreaded “Quad-A” label that plagues so many power-hitting prospects from the Pacific Coast League.

That derogatory label has since been demolished, much like Cruz does with a belt-high, 90 MPH fastball down the center of the plate.

Amidst his ascension from Quad-A player to an All-Star type player with 84 home runs over the past three seasons, it’s easy to forget that Nelson Cruz could be playing for your favorite team right now.

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Yuniesky Betancourt ranked dead last qualified amongst shortstops in 2011, racking up +0.5 WAR in 584 plate appearances. Brewers’ GM Doug Melvin reportedly scoured the trade market for upgrades prior to the July 31 Trade Deadline, but was unable to come to terms on a deal. And with no legitimate upgrade on the postseason roster, Milwaukee entered the 2011 postseason with the worst everyday shortstop in the league in their starting lineup.

Surprisingly, that has turned out to be extremely fortunate for the Brewers.

In a 1-1 game in the sixth inning of Game 5 of the NLDS, Arizona’s Chris Young made a spectacular over-the-shoulder catch in center field to rob Jerry Hairston Jr. of an extra-base hit and save the go-ahead run. That brought up Yuniesky Betancourt at the plate with two outs, runners on first and second, and Arizona’s ace Ian Kennedy on the mound.

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With their backs against the wall, the New York Yankees clobbered the baseball around the diamond for a 10-1 victory and tied up the ALDS with the Detroit Tigers at two games apiece.

The two teams will now head back east to New York for a decisive Game 5. New York will trot out young Ivan Nova, while Detroit counters with right-hander Doug Fister. It will be a rematch of Game 1, in which Fister surrendered six earned runs in 4.2 innings and, ultimately, took the loss. Given that Fister’s dominating second half with the Tigers was so surprising, it’s natural to think that perhaps he was exposed by having to face a good line-up, and that the Tigers are in trouble asking him to try and get the Yankees out again.

After all, it’s become fashionable to point out that Fister didn’t exactly have the hardest road after Detroit picked him up from Seattle in July. This criticism is based in fact – his opponents in August and September, chronologically:

Texas, Cleveland, Baltimore, Cleveland, Tampa Bay, Kansas City, Cleveland, Minnesota, Oakland, Kansas City, Cleveland

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“Progress always involves risks. You can’t steal second base and keep your foot on first.” — Frederick B. Wilcox

Prior to the 2011 season, the Milwaukee Brewers were largely viewed as a team in flux.

Prince Fielder was rumored to be on the trading block for the right price. The starting rotation was coming off a collective 4.65 ERA in 2010, and the free agent market provided little hope for a small-market team like the Brewers.

Many folks favored a quasi-rebuilding season. Trade a couple impending free agents and acquire some valuable, cost-controlled pitching to build for 2013 and beyond.Fortunately, Brewers’ GM Doug Melvin had an ace or two up his sleeve that nobody in the baseball world saw coming.

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