Reds over Brewers, 3 games to 0

After their ninth-inning comeback rally on Thursday, the Reds took hold of the series. They got some superb pitching from Travis Wood on Saturday, and then some solid work from Bronson Arroyo on Sunday.

Moving the Needle: Brandon Phillips‘s three-run shot, +.214 WPA. Of course, Ramon Hernandez’s walk-off bomb was the biggest WPA gain of the series, but we covered that one already. Before Sunday’s game was a blowout, the Reds had a 3-2 lead in the fourth, but it wouldn’t stay that way for long. Randy Wolf, as he does from time to time, put one on a tee for Phillips, who hit a high, arcing bomb to left field, plating three runs and blowing the game open. The only other run the Brewers scored was a Ryan Braun homer. Rickie Weeks also homered. In fact, a lot of other people also homered, all around the league.

Reds 7, Brewers 6
Reds 4, Brewers 2
Reds 12, Brewers 3

Also in this issue: Dodgers over Giants, Braves over Nationals, Padres over Cardinals, Pirates over Cubs, Diamondbacks and Rockies split, Mets over Marlins, Phillies over Astros.

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Bear with me as I figure out a way to acceptably recap a weekend’s worth of games. Suggestions are welcome.

Royals over Angels, 3 games to 1

In the debut of The Morning After we saw the Royals drop the opener to the Angels, 4-2. It seemed like a one-sided affair until the later innings, when Kansas City put some runs on the board and threatened to take the game. While they didn’t come through on Thursday, they did in each of the following three games, taking the series three games to one.

Moving the Needle: Wilson Betemit’s two-run, game-tying double in the bottom of the ninth, +.511 WPA. Twice this weekend the Royals won on walk-off home runs, but neither of them moved the needle to the degree that Wilson Betemit’s double did. In yesterday’s game the Royals entered the bottom of the ninth down 9-7 and, as was the case on Thursday, they brought the tying run to the plate. Actually, it was Fernando Rodney who brought the tying run to the plate, walking three of the first four batters he faced, including Jeff Francoeur– a sign the Royals were destined to win this game. On the first pitch to Betemit, Rodney delivered a fastball up and over the plate. Betemit drove it into the left-center field gap, where Vernon Wells couldn’t come up with a catch, tying the game. The Royals would win in the 13th, when Matt Treanor hit a three-run, walk-off home run.

Angels 4, Royals 2
Royals 2, Angels 1
Royals 5, Angels 4
Royals 12, Angels 9

Also in this issue: Yankees over Tigers, White Sox over Indians, Mariners over A’s, Orioles over Rays, Rangers over Red Sox, Blue Jays over Twins

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It had not been a good day for Alex Gordon. All spring long we’d heard how the former first-round pick was working towards finally fulfilling his potential. Even manager Ned Yost was singing his praises. “He looks much, much better,” he said at the outset of spring training. Yost even went so far as to bat Gordon third yesterday. But through his first four PA he had popped up, grounded out to short, and struck out twice. Then, in the ninth, he had his shot at redemption.

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Introducing FanGraphs’s workweek recap feature.

Reds 7, Brewers 6

Moving the Needle: Ramon Hernandez’s three-run walk-off home run, +.908 WPA. For a second it appeared as though Jonny Gomes had ended the game with a walk-off grand slam, but it was just a deep sac fly that put the Reds within two runs. Two pitches later Hernandez finished the job with an absolute pea that cleared the right field wall by plenty. Hernandez went 4 for 5 on the day, but the homer was his only run scored and RBIs.

Notables – Cincinnati

Edinson Volquez: 6 IP, 7 H, 5 R, 5 ER, 2 BB, 5 K, 3 HR. It was better than his last start.

Joey Votto: 1 for 2, 1 HR, 2 BB. In addition to his solo shot, Votto got the Reds on the board in the first with a sac fly. It came with a nice bat flip, but the ball carried only to the wall. His homer came in the seventh, a no-doubter to left off of Kameron Loe, who, as Jack Moore will tell you, probably shouldn’t face any lefties, nevermind one of Votto’s prowess.

Drew Stubbs: 2 for 5, 1 HR. Before Hernandez went opposite field, Stubbs went opposite field. Stubbs hit just one home run in 83 April PA last year. He hit 21 in 500 PA the rest of the way.

Paul Janish: 2 for 4. Freed, finally.

Jay Bruce: 2 for 5. He started 2 for 2, but neither of his singles factored into the scoring. Then in the seventh he struck out after the Reds had closed the gap to 6-3. In the ninth he came up with the bases loaded and struck out on a breaking ball. OBP for the game: .400. WPA for the game: -.111.

Notables – Milwaukee

Yovani Gallardo: 6 IP, 7 H, 2 R, 2 ER, 3 BB, 4 K, 1 HR. This was kind of similar to the line from his Opening Day 2010 start: 7 IP, 7 H, 4 R, 3 ER, 2 BB, 5 K, 1 HR.

Rickie Weeks: 2 for 5, 1 2B, 1 HR. Not only did Weeks homer to lead off the season, but he added an RBI double down the left field line to give the Brewers a 4-1 lead in the second. He also made a nice shovel pass to first on a slow roller, ending the fifth.

Carlos Gomez: 1 for 4, 1 BB, 1 HR. Gomez saw Weeks’s leadoff homer and raised him, crushing one in the upper deck to give the Brewers the quickest 2-0 lead of the season. Last year it took Gomez 40 PA before he drew his first walk of the season. This year he did it in his fifth.

Ryan Braun: 2 for 3, 1 HR, 2 BB. The only time when Braun reached base and didn’t score was following his two-out walk in the second. His homer, hit so far that Stubbs didn’t even bother chasing it to the wall, put the Brewers up 5-2 in the fifth.

Ron Roenicke: 1 for 2. He came out of the dugout to argue Jay Bruce’s third-inning single, which the umpire says Mark Kotsay trapped. That was not the case. Roenicke was right, but that didn’t erase Bruce from first base. Again he emerged in the ninth, when Casey McGehee missed the tag on Brandon Phillips and then threw late to first, which loaded the bases with none out for Cincinnati. There he was wrong; it was his own player, McGehee, who was to blame. He could have ensured the tag on Phillips, or he could have thrown to second (or even to first if he didn’t think he had enough time).

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It’s hard to argue with sustained success, and the Phillies have experienced just that. They have won the NL East in each of the last four seasons and have turned that into two World Series appearances and one title. It’s also arguable that they were the best team in the NL in 2010. The FanGraphs staff thinks they’re the best NL club in 2011 and beyond.

Present Talent – 92.50 (2nd)

Phillies Season Preview

Future Talent – 90.00 (t-3rd)

Phillies Top 10 Prospects

Financial Resources – 88.08 (3rd)
Baseball Operations – 84.17 (t-7th)

Overall Rating – 88.71

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If you spent all winter reading headlines, you might think that the Mets are in a bad position now. The stories that defined the team’s off-season — Johan Santana missing at least the first half, two injury-prone pitchers inhabiting the back of the rotation, ownership’s financial situation — don’t paint a pretty picture. But quietly the Mets’ new front office has assembled a team that might surprise those who haven’t dug deeply enough. Particularly impressive is the bullpen. It contains a number of underrated pitchers who together could form one of the stronger units in the NL.

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The Cardinals were struck a mighty blow to start the season, as they’ll miss their ace Adam Wainwright. That hurts their ranking a bit, as a higher present talent score might have bumped them a spot or three higher. But they’re still strong at No. 13.

Present Talent – 80.45 (t-11th)

Cardinals Team Preview

Future Talent – 75.00 (t-20th)

Cardinals Top 10 Prospects

Financial Resources – 77.50 (15th)
Baseball Operations – 79.55 (14th)

At the major league level we know that the Cardinals can be a threat. They feature one of, if not the, best 3-4 combinations in the game in Albert Pujols and Matt Holliday. The supporting cast lacks a bit, though Colby Rasmus and Lance Berkman will provide some additional punch on offense. Yet, as with most of our organizational rankings, we have to dig deeper into the Cardinals organization to fully grasp it. While their average marks in financial resources and baseball operations might not seem interesting on the surface, there is a lot that goes into them.

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The Cubs wield great financial strength, which gives them an advantage over the bulk of their competition. But as their ranking indicates, they haven’t necessarily put those resources to best use.

Present Talent – 74.17 (t-22nd)

Cubs Season Preview

Future Talent – 75.00 (t-20th)

Cubs Top 10 Prospects

Financial Resources: 83.46 (t-5th)
Baseball Operations: 71.67 (29th)

Overall Rating: 76.46 (19th)

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While the team has made no official announcement, it has become clear this week that the Mets intend to name Rule 5 pick Brad Emaus the starting second baseman. The first indication came on Monday, when the team released Luis Castillo. Then this morning they sent Justin Turner to minor league camp and also informed Daniel Murphy that they’d work him around the diamond in the next few weeks while they play Emaus at second. At this point it’s almost too easy to draw a comparison to another second baseman Rule 5 pick: Dan Uggla.

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If there was a sensible suitor, one likely would have emerged by now. But despite their best efforts, the Braves haven’t persuaded any teams to take on Kenshin Kawakami. This isn’t exactly surprising. The Braves optioned Kawakami to AAA last August and then removed him from the 40-man roster, outrighting him to AA, in November. It’s clear that they don’t view him as a contributor, which instantly depresses his trade value.

Still, Kawakmi can probably produce more value than the projected starters for a handful of teams. If the Braves eat enough of his salary, there should be a match. The problem is that the teams that would realize an upgrade with Kawakami are the teams that would benefit least from his services.

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