First base isn’t where you’d expect to see a low-power, slick-fielding player. Those players you’ll typically see in an up-the-middle position. The same goes for left field. On the defensive spectrum the two positions furthest to the right — that is, positions that are the least difficult to play — are left field and first base. We can also lump in DH and right field with those. Unsurprisingly, those positions produced the most power in 2010. Of the top 10 finishers in ISO, nine played first base, an outfield corner, or DH. Only Troy Tulowitzki at No. 10 broke the trend.

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It seems odd that a team that wants to contend in the future would entertain offers for its best young player. Yet discussions surrounding a possible Justin Upton trade have dominated baseball news this week. As Dave described, this is a unique situation, since teams don’t often trade players who are not only young and cheap, but also project to provide plenty of surplus value. It made me wonder if any other teams could benefit by trading a young, cost-controlled player who projects to rank among the elite. And then it came to me.

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How can a team best build a bullpen? We’ve seen different teams try different methods, with varying degrees of success. For the past five days the Marlins have tried one tactic. They’ve made three trades and have received a reliever in each. This resembles the Padres’ bullpen building philosophy, which involves gathering a ton of arms and finding the few that stick. Earlier today we saw the Tigers try a method that more resembles the Yankees’ philosophy. They signed Joaquin Benoit to a three-year, $16.5 million deal that can be worth up to $19.5 million.

Given Benoit’s 2010 numbers, that might appear to be a good deal. Read the rest of this entry »

In the winter before the 2009 season it appeared as though the Dodgers were set in the outfield for the next two years. The team had just re-signed Manny Ramirez to a two-year deal, which put him alongside Matt Kemp and Andre Ethier to form one of the better outfield groups in the league. There were concerns with Ramirez, of course, but the short-term nature of the deal helped mitigate most of them. But by the end the Dodgers traded Manny, basically eliminating any chance of a reunion. That leaves the Dodgers short a left fielder.

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In the winter of 2007-2008, the Marlins had a chance to make a big splash. The free agent market lacked a game-changing bat. Teams seeking a significant offensive upgrade turned to the trade market, where the Marlins were dangling Miguel Cabrera, who would be 25 years old in 2008. After doubling payroll from 2006 to 2007, the Marlins clearly had no intentions of raising it again. And so they traded Cabrera, along with Dontrelle Willis, to the Tigers for a package of players that included two first-round picks: Cameron Maybin, No. 10 overall in 2005, and Andrew Miller, No. 6 overall in 2006.

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In 2009 the Rangers opened the season with a $55 million payroll, fourth lowest in baseball. They added some salary along the way, but it amounted to little over $5 million. A bankruptcy proceeding, an ownership change, a new TV deal, and a World Series appearance later and the team finds itself in a bit more favorable financial position. According to Ken Rosenthal and Jon Morosi of Fox Sports, that could mean a 2011 payroll that exceeds $90 million. That will help the Rangers as they pursue another AL pennant.

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Before they knew it, the Diamondbacks were out of it. Before the calendar even flipped to June they were double digit games back in the NL West. They got to 20 games behind just after the All-Star break. They did hit something of a stride in August, going 16-13, but an 11-18 September/October put a fitting end to a bitter season. The Diamondbacks have plenty work ahead of them if they’re going to make up the 15 games that separated them from fourth place.

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Yesterday we discussed the team that has the longest path out of the cellar. Today we’ll switch gears completely and examine the team that is closest to losing the last place tag. The Kansas City Royals and the Cleveland Indians jockeyed for fourth place positioning in the season’s final month, and Cleveland won by a mere two games. They also finished just 14 games behind Detroit, which is closer than four last place teams were to their next closest competitors. With an elite minor league system the Royals could be ready for a rise from the cellar. It could all start in 2011.

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The Orioles have quite a climb ahead of them. They weren’t the worst last-place team in 2010, but they have the furthest gap to reach fourth place (19 games, tied with the Mariners). Last year the AL East produced four above-.500 teams, and none of them appear particularly weak for 2011. That means Baltimore has to improve considerably if it wants to catch Toronto and move out of the cellar.

In particular, Baltimore would do well to improve on these positions in the off-season:

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Last week, on Boston radio station WEEI, Peter Gammons stopped by and made quite the bold statement:

I don’t expect Victor Martinez to come back, I think Detroit is going to give him four or five years. And I don’t think anybody else is going to give him four or five years to be a catcher.

Bringing in Martinez would certainly help the Tigers at catcher in 2011. In 2010 their catchers, Gerald Laird and Alex Avila, combined to produce a .277 wOBA, which ranked 25th in the majors. Martinez, despite a slow start and a mid-season thumb injury, produced a .364 wOBA, which ranked fourth among MLB catchers with at least 400 PA.

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