In April it seemed like a long shot — perhaps an impossibility. A month later it was a near certainty. For nearly the entire season we’ve known that the Red Sox would exercise David Ortiz’s $12.5 million option for 2011. Today they did. Ortiz might not be happy about it, since he expressed his discontent with the option on multiple occasions. But for the Red Sox it was clearly the smart move.
During the regular season the Rangers had one of the most effective bullpens in the American League. The relief unit managed a 3.38 ERA, second in the league by a mere 0.05. They also worked more innings than any other team’s bullpen, 503.2 innings. That looked like a major advantage heading into the postseason, but it has ended up as one of the team’s vulnerabilities. In each round the bullpen has cost them games.
ALDS
The bullpen didn’t factor much into the first two games of the series, since the Rangers’ offense staked the team to a lead while its top two pitchers, Cliff Lee and C.J. Wilson, absolutely dominated Tampa Bay. Game 3 was a much closer affair, with the Rangers leading 201 heading into the eighth inning. Darren Oliver, who had pitched a scoreless seventh inning, started the frame by striking out Sean Rodriguez. From there it was all downhill.
Dan Johnson started the rally with a double and was singled home a batter later by Carlos Pena. Darren O’Day then came in to strike out one batter before Ron Washington went to his closer, Neftali Feliz, to keep the game tied. He responded by walking the first batter he faced. One more single allowed the Rays to take the lead. Feliz then allowed a home run to lead off the ninth; his replacement, Dustin Nippert, allowed another one to make the score 6-2.
In Game 4 Derek Holland allowed two runs in four innings. Under normal circumstances this might not be bad, but it did allow Tampa Bay to increase the lead from 3-0 to 5-0. Thankfully for the Rangers, Lee made the bullpen a moot point in Game 5.
ALCS
The Rangers’ bullpen melted down just once in the ALCS, but it was their gravest offense of the postseason. It actually started with the starter, Wilson, who allowed the first two runners to reach base in the eighth inning of Game 1. That made the score 5-2. Oliver then entered the game and issued walks to both hitters he faced. Washington had seen enough and went to O’Day, who gave up a two-RBI single to make the score 5-4.
With the lefty Robinson Cano coming up Washington opted for a left hander, despite Cano’s success against left-handed pitching (.368 wOBA on the season, .348 for his career). Cano responded with a game-tying single. That led Washington to make yet another change, this time bringing in Holland to face the lefty-mashing Marcus Thames. Thames broke his bat, but the ball went over the infield and allow the go-ahead run to score.
The Rangers’ WE heading into the inning was 95.9 percent. When Wilson left it was still at 86.5 percent. After Thames’s single it was just 17.9 percent, and at the end of the inning it was 32.5 percent. The bullpen did everything in giving away that game.
World Series
Lee caused the greatest damage in Game 1, allowing seven runs (six earned) in 4.2 innings. But the bullpen put this one away. O’Day started by alllowing a run in relief of Lee. Mark Lowe allowed the death blow, though, by allowing three runs in the eighth inning. The Rangers responded with three of their own in the ninth, but by that point it didn’t matter.
In Game 2 the bullpen implosion was far worse. Wilson, despite a blister issue, managed to keep his team in the game through six innings, allowing just one run. A run in the seventh made that 2-0 Giants, but the Rangers still had a chance. That is, until the eighth inning, when Holland threw 12 of his 13 pitches for balls, resulting in three straight walks. Then, for some reason, with his team down just three runs, Washington again went to Lowe, who didn’t record a single out before letting the game get away. Michael Kirkman finished it off by allowing three more runs on a triple and a double.
Take away one of a team’s strengths and chances are things are going to go wrong for them. The Rangers have suffered because of their bullpen this postseason. While their offense hasn’t been stellar, their starters have for the most part kept them in games. Without that bullpen that pitched so well during the season, they haven’t been able to compensate. And so they will once again need Cliff Lee to eat as many innings as possible. And once he’s out, it’s time Washington handed the ball to Feliz.
Sometimes a graphic can make the obvious even more obvious. Anyone watching last night knows that Cliff Lee did not look like the guy who took the Rays and the Yankees to school. A look at his pitch plots makes the reason clear.
First, against the Yankees, you’ll notice that Lee avoided a particular part of the zone:
There is that one conspicuous cutter sitting dead center, but nothing else comes even close to it. You see, for the most part, cutters in the bottom half of the zone, change-ups low and away to righties, and curveballs low in or below the zone. If you happen to find someone with baseball savvy who had not watched this game and showed him this strike zone plot, he’d probably be able to tell you that the pitcher had great success.
And then there was last night:
There are a number of concerning aspects of last night’s strike zone plot, not least of which is the number of pitches near the center of the zone. The top-right portion of the plot is also concerning. As you can see, those four curveballs had no chance. Just three of the 11 curves he threw were strikes, none swinging, while against the Yankees he threw eight of 16 for strikes, including one swing and miss. Last night he managed just two curveballs low, while he did it consistently against the Yanks.
What further hurt Lee was his lack of a changeup. Against the Yankees he threw it 14 times and got nine strikes, three of them swinging. Last night he broke it out just five times, and each time it came early in the count. Three were strikes, but none generated swings and misses. Each time the Giants swung at the change, they put it in play.
Finally, the cutter caused him some problems, too. In both games he kept the cutter mostly in the lower half of the zone, but the difference was in how he painted the edges. Against the Yankees you can see the black dots spreading pretty far to each side of the zone. Against the Giants there aren’t many cutters on the outer thirds. The Giants, unsurprisingly, put far more cutters in play, 22.6 percent, than the Yankees did, 15 percent, even though they whiffed more (16.1 percent to 10 percent).
No pitcher, not even Cliff Lee, can be perfect every time. After three incredible postseason starts, he finally had a game where he didn’t have complete control of his pitches. Sometimes aces can gut through starts like that. Other times they’re going to get hit around. The Giants had their moment in Game 1, but unless they can complete the sweep this won’t be the last they see of Lee. In Game 5 I’d expect Lee’s strike zone plot to more resemble his ALCS start than his first World Series one.
As an end note, I think Tim Marchman nails it with this parody quote:
“I didn’t have my good stuff going tonight,” he said. “But I doubt that made a difference. I’m not a six-sided die, but mathematically I act like one and function with surprisingly little agency. Any game I pitch is just an expression of my true talent, that of my opponents and something that isn’t quite what the average person means when they say ‘luck’ but works more or less the same way. I hope for a 90th percentile outcome every time out, but to me it’s really all about sticking near my mean outcome and giving the guys a chance to win.”
Tonight, for the first time since June 12, Cliff Lee will bat against live pitching. Tomorrow, when C.J. Wilson comes to the plate, it will be only the sixth time he has done so in his career. American League pitchers are often ill-prepared for the task ahead of them. For the great majority of the six-month season they take no batting practice. Only in the weeks leading up to interleague play do they pick up a bat and work on swinging and bunting. This lack of preparation gives National League teams an advantage when they’re at home in the World Series.
Bench composition also plays a role in this imbalance. National League teams, at least the good ones, often have a number of pinch-hitters on the bench. American League teams have no such need. The better offenses typically have seven or eight regulars, for whom the manager would rarely, if ever, pinch hit. This means they can get by without thumpers on the bench — often, too, the better bench players gravitate towards NL teams for this very reason. But when they play games in San Francisco, Texas will be well-armed.
Chances are that the Rangers won’t need more than one AB from a pinch hitter in Lee’s stead. He has worked deep into every postseason game so far. But in case he does slip a bit in Game 1, the Rangers will have a few bench weapons. Because Vladimir Guerrero will start Games 1 and 2, David Murphy will be left on the bench. He can come in and face Tim Lincecum or any of the Giants’ righty relievers. As mentioned in the Vlad article, he has a career .357 wOBA against right-handed pitching, so he immediately becomes the Rangers’ greatest pinch-hitting threat. He might be the best bench bat for any team in the series.
Should the Giants go to a lefty, the Rangers could counter with Jeff Francoeur. He has been part of the team’s outfield platoon, and will almost certainly start Games 3 and 4, when the Giants will throw Jonathan Sanchez and Madison Bumgarner. While he hasn’t produced a wOBA north of .330 since 2007, he remains a threat against left-handed pitching. His .340 wOBA this year is about in line with his career mark. We can expect that he’ll enter the game should either Jeremy Affeldt or Javier Lopez be in the game, if for no other reason than goad Bruce Bochy into making a pitching change.
The Rangers also have perhaps the best pinch-running option in the series with Julio Borbon. His 6.1 Speed score rates better than any player in the series other than Andres Torres, who will start for the Giants. His best role will be as a pinch-runner and then defensive replacement for Guerrero, but he can also replace either of the team’s catchers should they reach base late in a game. He had a pretty bad season in terms of steals, just 15-of-22, but that doesn’t tell us exactly how he’ll do in the specific situations he’ll face in the late innings.
Some American League teams struggle with the bench aspect of the game. They’ll usually have their regular DH on the bench for the World Series, which helps, but National League teams typically construct their benches to the conventions of the no-DH game. That gives them an advantage when the AL team visits in the World Series. The Rangers, however, appear well prepared for the NL game. They have a capable lefty and capable righty on the bench, plus a speed threat.
The Giants, on the other hand, might not have the optimal build for the AL game. We’ll look at that when the series heads to Arlington.
Since October 16, every time I turn on my TV I see this:
I’ve recently wised up and changed the channel to which my cable box defaults, but that message still plays all day, on both Fox 5 and a dedicated alert channel. I was not able to watch one minute of the NLCS on my TV, and it it’s a certainty that when the World Series commences tomorrow night that I will have to find an alternative way to watch it. You might understand my rage over this issue.
The point of conflict, predictably, is money. Fox wants a raise. Cablevision isn’t willing to pay the amount Fox has demanded. The two sides were not able to agree on a rate by the October 16 deadline, and so Fox pulled its programming from Cablevision. This hit first on Saturday night, when the Giants played the Phillies in Game 1 of the NLCS, and then hit again on Sunday when the New York Football Giants played the Detroit Lions. Giants fans have something of a reprieve, as they played on ESPN this week and have a bye next week. But baseball fans still must seek an alternative for the World Series.
Calling Cablevision about the matter is pointless. From their phone menu I selected the option regarding Fox programming, but it was just another propaganda-filled recording. During the message they note that should Cablevision acquiesce to Fox’s demands, our cable bills will go up. But when I finally got through to a customer service representative, I was informed that Cablevision was not issuing refunds for Fox service. So we’re either paying more for the same service, or we’re paying for a service we’re not receiving. Yet that that is not my biggest complaint about this spat.
That I have to go Radio Shack and buy a digital TV antenna is absurd. I cut Cablevision a check every month for my cable service. In exchange, they deliver me the appropriate channel package. Fox is included in that package. Now I have to cut the same check as every month, only for a lower level of service. Not only that, but I have to spend between $25 and $50 on a digital TV antenna, so that I can actually watch the World Series this year. The worst part is that watching the World Series this year is not optional.
If you haven’t yet noticed, we’re supplying WPA-based recaps for ESPN this postseason. If you click through the dates here you can see the FanGraphs content from the LDS and LCS. We’re set to do it again in the World Series. How can I recap a game I haven’t watched? This requires me to either 1) go to a bar, or 2) buy an antenna. Since recaps and bars don’t go well together, and since my wallet appreciates me not going to a bar every game of the World Series, the antenna is the only practical option if I want to do my job. Cablevision and Fox, in other words, are preventing me from pursuing my livelihood.
(It’s not all work related, of course. Even if I didn’t work for FanGraphs I’d want to watch the World Series, because it’s the goddamn championship of the sport with which I’m unhealthily obsessed.)
This isn’t the first time Cablevision has sparred with a content provider. Earlier this year ABC pulled its programming over the same money issue. That cut into the Oscar’s broadcast, and service was restored about 20 minutes into the program. We aren’t that lucky with Fox. We’re currently in Day 11 of the blackout, and there doesn’t appear to be an end in sight. Cablevision has agreed to binding arbitration, which would settle the matter immediately. Fox hasn’t, because that would be to concede the negotiations. They’re not going to get anything near what they’re seeking in arbitration.
Both parties are to blame in this. Fox’s parent company, News Corp., wants to change the way it is compensated for its programming. Cablevision wants to keep the status quo. Caught in the middle of their spat are millions of consumers in the New York Metro area. I do not think Cablevision customers should stand for this. We pay them to deliver content, and they are not holding up their end of the deal. They put the blame on Fox, but that’s just propaganda. Similarly, Fox’s effort, Keep Fox On, tells only one side of the story and distorts the other. All consumers need to know is that both sides are failing them.
Tonight I will go and purchase a digital TV antenna so that I can watch the World Series. But once I do, that’s the end of Cablevision in my mind. I will not be held hostage by two companies that clearly do not care about me. There’s nothing I can do about Fox, since they’re a network channel. But I can let Cablevision know that I won’t stand for their actions. I urge my fellow baseball fans to do the same. We need not continue paying for service we’re not getting, and then pay for an additional device, along with our full cable bills.
The Rangers, like most American League teams before them, will lose an advantage as they travel to a National League park. For Games 1 and 2, and perhaps Games 6 and 7, they will have to decide whether offense or defense is more important. In those two to four games the Rangers will lose either their DH, Vladimir Guerrero, or a cog in their outfield platoon, David Murphy and Jeff Francoeur. Unsurprisingly, Ron Washington is opting to stick with his cleanup hitter:
“You can bet we will figure out a way to get Vlad in the starting lineup,” Washington said Sunday during a media availability. “We are not going to take his bat out of the lineup.”
Looking just at Vlad this might seem like a sound decision. He finished second on the Rangers with a .360 wOBA and has hit fourth for them all season. Why take that kind of hitter out of your lineup? Yet, as with most baseball questions, the answer isn’t as straight forward as we might think. There is certainly a downside to playing Guerrero in the field.
The first obvious downside is self-explanatory: they have to play Guerrero in the field. He played just 125.2 innings in the field this season and has just 141.2 innings during the last two seasons. There is good reason for that. Even when Vlad was younger he wasn’t the fleetest of foot in the outfield. In fact, from 2002 through 2008 his UZR was -20.5 in right field. Those might be a bit low, because his arm score was mostly negative, too. Yet even DRS doesn’t think too highly of him, rating him -1 in those seven seasons, mostly because of his good arm. Yet that might not be the case any longer.
We know Vlad as the guy who throws like this, but is that really the case any more? We have very limited information on Guerrero’s arm right now, but during his 125.2 innings in the field this year both +/- (-1) and UZR (-0.6) showed less than favorable results. They might not provide a totally accurate description of Guerrero’s current throwing skills, but with those numbers, combined with what we can see and what we know about aging arms, I think we can safely assume that Vlad won’t be throwing out runners from the warning track.
In order to complete the analysis we have to look at the player, or players, who would replace Vlad should he find himself in a pinch hitting role. Assuming Tim Lincecum and Matt Cain go in Games 1 and 2, that player would be David Murphy. He’s a generally good outfielder, as his 2.4 career UZR/150 in left field indicates. He did have a down year per UZR, -2.3, though he did play only 533 innings out there during the season. For the most part he’s going to cover more ground than Guerrero. Yet what’s underrated about Murphy is his contribution at the plate this season.
We saw already that Vlad ranked third on the Rangers with a .360 wOBA. In fourth, though, was Murphy, just .002 behind at .358. Most of that came against right-handed pitching. Throughout his career, even when he didn’t hit as well overall as he did in 2010, he still hit righties very well, a career .357 wOBA. Guerrero, unsurprisingly, hit lefties far better than righties this season. He has also had an incredibly slow start to the playoffs, going just 12 for 45 with three extra base hits, all doubles. He might fit better as a bench bat in the first two games.
Having Vlad on the bench also means he can come in and pinch hit should Bruce Bochy bring Javier Lopez into a game. Whether that’s Murphy or Mitch Moreland, it will give the Rangers a late-game advantage. The league-average LI for pinch-hitting situations is 1.31, so that would give even more importance to Guerrero’s at-bats. So while they’d lose him for the game, they’d not only be replacing him with someone who can perhaps hit and field better in those circumstances, but they’d also have him available in select late-game situations that can prove critical to the game’s outcome.
Given what we know, in a general sense, about the current level of performance from both Guerrero and Murphy, it does make sense to use Murphy against the two righties in San Francisco. When the series then moves back to Arlington the Rangers can not only have Guerrero DH, but have him DH against a pair of left-handed pitchers. It’s tough to fault Washington for sticking with Guerrero, but it might not be the best move in this specific situation. Murphy appears to match up better.
The Tigers have plenty of holes to fill for 2011, and it appears as though they have the payroll to make the requisite changes. Impending free agents like Magglio Ordonez, Jeremy Bonderman, and Johnny Damon will clear more than $65 million from the payroll. What’s more, the Tigers don’t figure to pay out any significant arbitration raises this winter. This leaves them plenty of room to improve the club via free agency.
We’ve heard them connected with free agent to-be Adrian Beltre, who could provide a considerable upgrade over free agent to-be Brandon Inge. But the Tigers threw us a curveball this morning by announcing that they had signed Inge to a two-year extension. It didn’t take long for people to assume that Inge will remain at third base full time. That’s understandable. Inge has, after all, played 305 games at third base in the past two seasons, and in five out of the last six seasons he’s been the team’s primary man at the position. But that doesn’t mean he’s very good at it.
Inge’s 2.1 WAR suggests he had a good season in 2010, despite offensive futility. His .314 wOBA ranked 17th among MLB third basemen, right alongside the disappointing Pablo Sandoval. His offense hasn’t exactly been in decline lately, since his wOBA is right in line with last year, and a bit better than it was in 2007 and 2008. But it is clear at this point that Inge does not hit adequately for a third baseman. Gone are the days of even a .330 wOBA.
Where Inge provides value is with his glove. In 2006 and 2007 he was among the premier defenders at third base, accumulating a 30.2 UZR in 2701.2 innings. Since then he’s been above average, but not at an elite level. In 2010 his 3.1 UZR ranked ninth among qualified third basemen. It was the second time in three years that his range rated as a negative.
What I’m questioning with this move is whether Detroit intends Inge to be their 2011 third baseman. They can probably contend with a 2.1 WAR player at third, but that’s assuming that Inge, entering his age-34 season, can maintain even that level of production. If his skills on offense fade he’ll become an even more noticeable black hole in the lineup. If his skills on defense fade he’ll become essentially useless. Are the Tigers really comfortable with that kind of situation at third base?
Given all the holes the team has to fill this winter, perhaps they’re content to keep Inge and spend money where it’s most needed. If Inge can hold stead at 2 WAR for the two-year duration of the contract he will enable the Tigers to improve the club elsewhere. It’s certainly a risk with a 34-year-old player who has had a wRC+ of over 100 just twice in 10 seasons, but it’s one the Tigers might need to take if they want to upgrade other aspects of the ball club.
As the Yankees pulled up lame in Game 4 of the ALCS, so did their first baseman. The Yankees had blown a bases loaded, one out opportunity in the fourth, but then threatened again in the fifth. Mark Teixeira came to the plate with runners on first and second with none out, but as he has done so frequently this postseason he hit the ball weakly on the ground. As he raced down the line to beat out the double play, it appeared as though he attempted a slide into first. Replay showed that he grabbed his hamstring and collapsed. When Joe Girardi and trainer Steve Donahue helped Teixeira off the field, it was clear that he would not play another game in the 2010 postseason.
While Nick Swisher grabbed his first baseman’s glove and finished the game, Lance Berkman will man the position the rest of the way. This changes the Yankees’ lineup dynamic. Previously they were using Berkman as the DH against right-handed pitchers and Marcus Thames against lefties. With Teixeira out both Berkman and Thames are pressed into full-time duty. That’s not a situation the Yankees can be happy about.
The Yankees signed Thames to provide some pop off the bench against left-handed pitching. Because of an early-season injury to Nick Johnson he got more of an opportunity, and he ran with it. His .365 wOBA was his highest since 2006, and he actually fared better against righties than against lefties. That success has not carried over to the postseason, though, as Thames has gone just 4 for 20 with a homer and two walks.
Berkman came over in a deadline trade with Houston knowing that he’d be relegated to part-time DH duties. While he is a switch hitter in name, he has produced poor numbers against left-handed pitching in the past two years. After a .305 wOBA in 148 PA in 2009 he had a mere .236 wOBA in 92 PA against LHP this season. The Yankees have really gone out of their way to avoid having him face lefties this season, routinely substituting Thames even if they know the opposing manager will bring in a right-handed pitcher from the pen.
Unless Girardi decides that Austin Kearns is ready to stop striking out every other at-bat, it appears as though both Thames and Berkman will play every day. They will likely switch lineup spots depending on the opposing pitcher’s handedness. Against a lefty yesterday Thames hit fifth and Berkman sixth. But against a righty we could see Swisher fifth, Berkman sixth, Jorge Posada seventh, and Thames eighth. Having a .340 career wOBA player in the eighth hole illustrates the depth of the Yankees lineup, even without their No. 3 hitter.
Teixeira’s complete lack of production makes his loss easier to handle. He had an up and down season that ended up being his worst since his rookie campaign. Things did get better during the summer months, as Teixeira produced a .488 wOBA in July and a .411 wOBA in August, but he dipped back down in September and produced a .312 wOBA. It appeared as though he had put that behind him for the postseason, as he went 2 for 5, including a go-ahead two-run homer, in Game 1. For the Twins series he went 4 for 13 with a double and a homer, but once the team go to Texas Teixeira fell back into his April habits. In his four ALCS games he got on base just three times, all via the walk.
In this sense, removing him from the lineup can be a positive for the Yankees. The offense hasn’t exactly been stagnant this series, as they’ve put 47 runners on base in the five games. But every time they get men into scoring position they run into either bad luck or a slumping hitter. Of the 50 at-bats they’ve had with runners in scoring position they’ve managed a hit just eight times — and one of those didn’t score a run. Given Teixeira’s talent we can assume that his futility wouldn’t have lasted forever. But there didn’t appear to be any signs that he was going to turn it around in this series.
The real question facing the Yankees is of whether Berkman can hit left-handed pitching. His two-year downturn against them has come in a small sample, so there’s not much we can tell from the data alone. His ability to transition back into an every day player will play a large part in determining how far the Yankees make it. Even if he produces a day like yesterday, in which he went 0 for 2 with a walk and a sac fly, he can help the team even if he’s not picking up big hits from the right side. If he can’t, then it means Swisher at first and Kearns in the outfield. But then again, if he can’t then it’s not likely the Yankees will make it far enough to make that substitution.
Losing Mark Teixeira will hurt any team, but there is no team more prepared for his absence than the Yankees. They endured his slumps this season, and they’re well positioned to deal with his injury in the postseason. Having both Berkman and Thames in the lineup every day might not seem like an ideal scenario, but it’s a better solution than most teams have available. If Berkman gets hot, it might even mean a positive for the Yankees offense.
For the first time since 2007 the Yankees face an elimination game in the postseason. They were able to stay alive one more day in that series, no thanks to a gimpy Roger Clemens, but ended up losing the next game. This year the task is a bit greater. In 2007 they were down two games to none in the ALDS, with two home games before a potential return trip to Cleveland. This year they have one more game at home before potentially returning to Texas. Even if they do win the next two, they have a return date with Cliff Lee waiting for them on Saturday.
Today, though, they’ll send their ace to the mound. CC Sabathia has been a bit shaky in his first two 2010 postseason starts, though he has a ready-made excuse. His start on October 15th was his second in 17 days, which constitutes far more rest than he gets during the regular season; the Yankees even lined him up on fairly regular rest after the All-Star Break. But today, October 20th, he’s on his normal four days’ rest. Everything is in order and his team’s season is on the line. There are no excuses.
C.J. Wilson pitched well through seven innings last time, allowing just four hits and walking two. But instead of turning to his setup crew, Ron Washington sent out Wilson, who had thrown under 100 pitches, for the eighth. He and the next three relievers failed to record an out. By the time Derek Holland finally got the first one the Yankees had already taken the lead. Wilson did avoid walking too many hitters, which helped him hold down the Yankees through seven. This time perhaps his bullpen will better support him.
We don’t have stats that measure momentum; we don’t have stats that capture a team’s confidence. We don’t, in short, have stats that offer any insight into any single game. We can use our numbers to set expectations, and in that way we should expect a quality game this afternoon. But in the postseason, with emotions at a season high, it’s tough to expect anything. The Yankees’ offense could rebound. It could bomb. Wilson could go back to walking too many guys and allow five runs. He could repeat his Game 1 performance. It’s frustrating from an analytical standpoint, but it’s true.
The real preview for Game 5: watch it and enjoy it. No amount of analysis can prepare you for what you’re going to see.
Let me start by saying that I support the Yankees’ decision to start A.J. Burnett this evening. That was the plan, and the Yankees are sticking to it. The circumstances might seem dire, but the Yankees knew this scenario was a possibility. They also know that no matter how well or poorly Burnett pitches, they’ll play tomorrow and have their ace on the mound. That sounds a bit better than having Burnett pitching a potential elimination game.
Still, I can’t help but examine the other side of the issue. Going down 3-1 and having to face the Rangers’ three best pitchers doesn’t exactly seem like an ideal scenario. CC Sabathia undoubtedly gives the Yankees a better chance to even the series, so there has to be something to the argument that favors him taking the ball on short rest. Let’s examine that case.
This morning Craig Calcaterra laid out the argument for starting Burnett tonight. Within he makes two main points and one side point. The first is that starting Sabathia tonight would only delay the inevitable, since Burnett has to pitch in this series one way or another. The second is that Burnett matches up better against Tommy Hunter than he does against C.J. Wilson. The side point is that pitchers going on short rest generally have poorer numbers than their normally rested counterparts.
To counter:
1) Yes, Burnett will pitch in this series no matter what, but that doesn’t mean that pitching him in Game 4 is the same as pitching him in Game 5. In Game 4 the Yankees will either enter an elimination scenario or they will avoid it. No one wants to enter that elimination scenario, and so I can understand going to the ace in order to keep the team alive for at least two more games. If things go according to plan and Sabathia wins tonight, Burnett could still pitch the Yankees into an elimination game. But being down 3-2 is quite different than being down 3-1. Of course, CC is guaranteed nothing and could lose the game tonight. I’d still rather lose with my best on the mound than with my fourth best.
2) Burnett matches up well against Hunter, apparently, because Hunter is not only the least of the Rangers’ pitchers, but he has fared poorly against the Yankees. Yet we know that Hunter’s regular season performance against the Yankees means exactly zero right now. This is one game, and anything can happen. If we’ve learned anything from the endless previews for each playoff game, it’s that there is no way to get a good idea of what will happen based on past performance.
What we do know is that the Yankees’ offense has been horrible this series. Can we expect them to turn it around against Hunter? Maybe. Again, anything can happen in any given game. If the offense doesn’t show up I’d trust CC to hold down the Rangers far more than I would trust Burnett.
3) Looking at the data from the past five years, yes, pitchers throwing on three days’ rest fare worse than those throwing on four, five, or six-plus days. The problem is that those starts on three days’ rest count for just 1.2 percent of all starts. In addition, a number of those starts on three days’ rest don’t follow other starts. For example, Javier Vazquez has one start on three days’ rest this season; it came after he faced one batter in relief, which certainly calls into question some of the data.
For his part, Sabathia has been superb when pitching on three days’ rest. He has done it during the regular season four times in his career, accumulating 26.2 innings and allowing just seven runs, three earned. That also comes with 26 strikeouts to just six walks. In last year’s postseason he added another two starts and 14.2 innings with three days’ rest. His overall line:
41.1 IP, 28 H, 11 R, 7 ER, 11 BB, 37 K
The walks is the most interesting part. The overall numbers for pitchers going on three days’ rest indicates that control is the biggest problem. On four days’ rest pitchers have walked 7.8 percent of hitters. On three days’ rest they have walked 9.4 percent. I’m not sure how much of that is the noise of a comparatively small sample, but it does appear to be a significant difference. Home run rates do favor four days’ rest pitchers, but not nearly to the degree of walks. Strikeout rates are close. Sabathia’s walk rate on three days’ rest is 6.8 percent, while his rate on four days’ rest (not counting the postseason) is 7.1 percent.
How would the Yankees manage the rotation if they went with Sabathia on three days’ rest? That would push Burnett to Game 5, Phil Hughes to Game 6, and then either Andy Pettitte on normal rest or Sabathia on short rest in Game 7. I’d go with Pettitte, having Sabathia ready in the bullpen. It’s almost exactly the same as the current scenario, except Sabathia would have on extra day of rest for a relief appearance in a potential Game 7.
The overall point of using Sabathia tonight is to give the team the best chance of prolonging the series. No matter the match-up, Sabathia gives the team a better chance to win this evening. That means at least two more games. Since the Yankees are down two games to one, prolonging the series should be their foremost thought.
Again, I’m not sure if I buy this argument myself. I do think Burnett matches up best with Hunter, and I do trust Sabathia in an elimination game against Wilson. The Yankees have said that they’re not starting Sabathia on short rest, so I assume that they have reasons for not doing so. But there is certainly something to the argument for starting Sabathia tonight and Burnett tomorrow. Thankfully, in both scenarios there will be a tomorrow.