Four years ago, the Rays discovered a hidden gem. It took a last-minute injury for them to even place Carlos Pena on the roster, but that turned out to be one of the most beneficial injuries in team history. In 2007 Pena broke out, hitting 46 runs and producing 51 runs above average. His 167 wRC+ ranked fourth in the majors. While he never reached that level again, he still turned in two more high quality seasons and helped lead the Rays to the AL pennant in 2008. All of that from a guy who originally didn’t even crack the 2007 roster.

This year the Rays have another breakout on their hands, and once again it comes from a player who didn’t make the team out of spring training. Casey Kotchman started the season in Durham, but he played only one game for the Rays AAA team. Manny Ramirez‘s abrupt retirement paved the way for Kotchman’s recall, and Dan Johnson’s ineffectiveness opened a spot for him in the starting lineup. He’s taken full advantage, and is currently working on his finest season as a major leaguer. But unlike Pena, it’s unclear whether Kotchman’s improvements are replicable in the future.

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Mets 9, Padres 8

Moving the Needle: Lucas Duda walks off with a two-run single, +.479 WPA. Carlos who? OK, so maybe Duda hasn’t set the world on fire since taking over for Beltran full-time. He is, after all, just 9 for 34 (.264) since July 27th, and that counts his 3 for 5 last night. But he seems to come through in the big moments. The Mets and Padres were tied at four heading into the eighth, but the Padres put four on the board to take a commanding lead. Yet the Mets still had fight. They crossed a pair in the eighth and then rallied again in the ninth. After the Mets crept to within one, Heath Bell uncorked a wild pitch that proved his undoing. That put runners on second and third, meaning Duda’s single won the game.

Notables

Cameron Maybin: 3 for 5, 1 2B. He scored twice. His amazingly productive season on the road continues, even at a pitcher’s haven such as Citi.

David Wright: 2 for 5, 1 HR. He drove in three, including a two-run shot and an RBI single in the ninth.

Also in this issue: White Sox 7, Orioles 6 | Astros 9, Diamondbacks 1 | Red Sox 8, Twins 6 | Rockies 10, Reds 7 | Rays 2, Royals 1 | Braves 8, Marlins 1 | Rangers 9, Mariners 2 | Phillies 5, Dodgers 3 | Pirates 5, Giants 0

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It wasn’t long ago that Jorge Posada was one of baseball’s best backstops. From 2000, the first season he stepped out of Joe Girardi’s shadow, through 2007, his last fully healthy season, he ranked first among MLB catchers in WAR. He was also the decade-long leader, filling the gap between the Ivan Rodriguez and Mike Piazza dominance of the late 90s and the more recent dominance of Joe Mauer and Brian McCann. Even in 2009 and 2010 he produced well enough, 2.9 and 2.0 WAR despite spending time on the DL in each season.

This year, the final season in his contract, the Yankees informed him that he’d be moving out from behind the plate and into the full-time DH role. The transition didn’t start well, and while he showed signs of recovery in June his production has again declined recently. Yesterday the Yankees announced that he was no longer even a part-time member of their starting lineup. Instead they will go with a platoon of Eric Chavez and Andruw Jones, with top prospect Jesus Montero waiting by the phone in Scranton. It’s certainly an odd situation for such an important player in the Yankees franchise.

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Diamondbacks 4, Dodgers 3

Moving the Needle: Cody Ransom puts the DBacks ahead with a homer in the seventh, +.381 WPA. Down 3-2 in the seventh, Ransom came up with a man on and absolutely demolished a Clayton Kershaw offering. That put them up 4-3, a lead they’d hold the rest of the way. That’s his 10th career homer, which came in his 226th MLB game.

Notables

Kelly Johnson: 1 for 4, 1 HR. His two-run shot in the first staked the Diamondbacks to an early lead. It was only his third homer (of 18) against a lefty this year, though he’s actually been better against lefties in his career.

Andre Ethier: 2 for 4, 1 2B. His RBI double in the sixth tied the score and set the stage for Juan Rivera’s go-ahead single.

Also in this issue: Angels 2, Mariners 1 | Blue Jays 7, Orioles 2 | Reds 8, Cubs 7 | Red Sox 3, Yankees 2 | Nationals 3, Rockies 2 | Royals 4, Tigers 3 | Cardinals 8, Marlins 4 | White Sox 7, Twins 0 | Brewers 7, Astros 3 | A’s 5, Rays 4 | Braves 6, Mets 5 | Rangers 5, Indians 3 | Padres 7, Pirates 3 | Giants 3, Phillies 1

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Ozzie Guillen is not a happy man. He hasn’t been all season, really. His team figured to play a big part in the AL Central race this year, but instead they’re the poster boys for the division’s mediocrity. The pitching staff has been fine¹, but the offense has fallen far afoul of expectations². Still, only five of their regulars are currently hitting worse than their ZiPS projections. Of those, one is close, one is a rookie, and one is performing about in line with 2010³. The Sox offensive deficiency stems mainly from two culprits who have dragged down the entire unit: Adam Dunn and Alex Rios. It’s because of these two that the Sox aren’t enjoying more of a competition with the Tigers for the NL Central crown.

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Red Sox 4, Indians 3

Moving the Needle: Jacoby Ellsbury walks off with a homer, +.461 WPA. It seemed as though they were tied all game. The Red Sox did have a 3-2 lead for a few innings, but in the seventh the Indians tied it up. They remained tied until the bottom of the ninth. With two outs Ellsbury got a hold of one and drove it out to deep center. Over the wall it went, and again he played the hero for the Sox.

Notables

Jason Kipnis: 1 for 2, 1 HR, 2 BB. He’s had a nice little start to his career: 8 for 33 with two doubles, four homers, and three walks.

Also in this issue: Twins 11, Angels 4 | Phillies 8, Rockies 6 | Astros 5, Reds 4 | Yankees 18, White Sox 7 | Brewers 10, Cardinals 5 | Tigers 5, Rangers 4 | Braves 6, Nationals 4 | Royals 6, Orioles 2 | Cubs 1, Pirates 0 | Mariners 7, A’s 4 | Padres 3, Dodgers 0 | Rays 9, Blue Jays 1 | Giants 8, Diamondbacks 1

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Marlins 4, Mets 3

Moving the Needle: Justin Turner’s errant throw costs the Mets the game, -.464 WPA. The Mets held a 3-2 lead heading into the ninth inning last night, but Jason Isringhausen ran into a bit of trouble. With one out he loaded up the bases, bringing pinch-hitter Bryan Petersen to the plate. He grounded one right to Turner at second, who, seeing that John Buck had frozen in his tracks, made a quick throw to first. Why he didn’t go to second I’m not sure, because a force double play was the only way to ensure that the runner from third didn’t score. Plus, with Buck frozen it was an easy get, so they’d at least prevent another runner from reaching scoring position, even if they didn’t turn two. But throwing to first was a folly in the first place, since it ensured the tying run would score. Turner did the Marlins one better by throwing it away, allowing the go-ahead run to score as well.

Notables

Chris Capuano: 6 IP, 4 H, 2 R, 2 BB, 5 K. It wasn’t the most pristine start, but it was almost good enough for a Mets win.

Omar Infante: 3 for 5, 2 HR. Yes, yes, that’s more homers in one game than he’d hit all season.

Also in this issue: Angels 5, Twins 1 | Phillies 5, Rockies 0 | Red Sox 3, Indians 2 | Reds 5, Astros 1 | Yankees 6, White Sox 0 | Cardinals 8, Brewers 7 | Tigers 6, Rangers 5 | Nationals 9, Braves 3 | Orioles 8, Royals 2 | Mariners 4, A’s 3 | Cubs 11, Pirates 6 | Blue Jays 3, Rays 1 | Dodger 1, Padres 0 | Diamondbacks 6, Giants 1

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Without looking at the leader boards: who’s the best catcher in baseball? Criteria will vary from person to person, but generally it will involve a heavy weight on recent performance with some level of emphasis on long-term production. At this point, I’m willing to bet that the most common answer is Brian McCann. He stands far ahead of the pack this season with 19.1 wRAA, which bests No. 2 ranked Alex Avila by 7.3 runs. Still, there has to be some weight give to performances in the recent past. If we expand this leader board to include the past two calendar years, McCann does not stand atop. That honor belongs to another household name, Joe Mauer.

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Marlins 7, Mets 3

Moving the Needle: Lucas Duda ties the game with a homer in the bottom of the ninth, +.489 WPA. The Mets appeared to have a little magic last night, but it only lasted so long. They fell behind 3-0 early, but then Jason Bay put them on the board with a homer, his third of the year at home, which is as many as he had at home last year. The 3-1 score persisted until the bottom of the ninth, when Angel Pagan doubled, and then, two batter later, Duda got a cookie. He whaled it over the fence in right-center to tie the game at three. But the next inning the Marlins loaded up the bases with one out, and Mike Stanton hit a homer of his own, effectively crushing the Mets chances.

Notables

Javier Vazquez: 7 IP, 6 H, 1 R, 1 BB, 2 K. He’s given up more than three runs just once in his last nine starts. That’s the his fifth start in which he’s allowed zero or one runs, which is more than most people probably thought he’d have coming into the season.

Omar Infante: 3 for 5, 1 3B. That’s his fourth triple in his last 11 games.

Also in this issue: Indians 9, Red Sox 6 | Phillies 4, Rockies 3 | Yankees 3, White Sox 2 | Astros 4, Reds 3 | Mariners 8, A’s 4 | Brewers 6, Cardinals 2 | Nationals 5, Braves 3 | Cubs 5, Pirates 3 | Dodgers 6, Padres 2 | Diamondbacks 5, Giants 2

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With the non-waiver trade deadline past us, we can take a step back and see how each contender upgraded its roster. Because the season is two-thirds over, these players might not have an enormous impact. But for a contender sitting on the fringe, or a leader wanting to solidify its position, these acquisitions could make enough of a difference now, and then a bigger one come playoff time, when everyone starts from scratch.

To project the positional upgrade the team will receive, we’ll look at the wRAA the team has received so far from the position, the projected wRAA for the incumbent, and the projected wRAA for the replacement, based on ZiPS rest of season. We’ll assume 230 PA, which is based on a prorated 700 PA season. I’m leaving out defense, because I’m not comfortable projecting 1/3 of a season. I’m also leaving out guys such as Jerry Hairston, who are injury fill-ins rather than upgrades.

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