Before we can fully understand Houston’s motive in dealing Roy Oswalt, we have to answer a number of questions. Just a couple off the top of my head:

1) Was moving Oswalt necessary from a payroll standpoint? Follow-up: For 2010, 2011, 2012, or all of them?

2) Do they realize his peak value now, while teams battle for playoff spots? Or would they be able to work out something perhaps more favorable to the club this winter, when they don’t have a looming deadline?

Then there’s the obvious question of the value they got in return. For the most part these questions will require us to speculate. But with the information we have available we can at least make informed speculations.

Was moving Oswalt necessary from a payroll standpoint?

Since they appeared in the World Series in 2005 it seems like the Astros have tried to spend their way into a return trip. That year their payroll sat at $75.8 million, but it jumped all the way to $92.5 million in 2006. Of course, since they bumped the payroll they haven’t made it back to the playoffs. The spending, it seems, has come in the wrong places.

In 2009 the Astros had a payroll just shy of $103 million, more than $10 million above their previous ceiling. It bought them only 74 wins. They were able to shave $10 million off that number for 2010 due to the departures of Miguel Tejada, Jose Valverde, and a few others. Still, a $92 million payroll is a bit high for the results the team has produced. Ditching Oswalt’s remaining 2010 salary, plus his 2011 salary and 2012 buyout, will help them start the rebuilding process.

Yet that’s not the whole story. The Astros sent $11 million to the Phillies as part of the deal, which covers all of the roughly $5 million he’s owed for the remainder of the season, plus more than a third of his 2011 salary plus option buyout. In other words, the Phillies will pay $10.5 million for a year and two-plus months of Oswalt, while the Astros will pay $11 million for him not to pitch for them. If that seems a bit odd, it is.

Given the evidence, it doesn’t seem like moving Oswalt was a financial necessity. But given the team’s current composition, both in the majors and on the farm, it was probably a wise move to deal their most expensive player. He likely wouldn’t be around for the next contending Houston team, so they might as well try to get the most they could for him. That leads us nicely into the next two questions.

Is this the best time to deal Oswalt?

Intuitively it seems like a team in the midst of a pennant race would pay more for a high-quality player than a team in winter remodeling mode. They have more at stake, and therefore might be willing to pay a premium for a player that can help them. That goes especially for a player under contract for the following season and beyond, since they’ll be able to realize further value from him. But as we’ve learned from years of following the game, intuition doesn’t always provide the correct answer.

Only small number of teams become buyers in July. We’re past the halfway point, and while few teams have outright given up on the season, that doesn’t mean that they’ll do something foolish and trade prospects for a player who, while helping the team, won’t put them in the playoffs. It also seems like many, if not most, teams are butting up against their payroll limits, which further limits the market. Dealing in July, then, means finding a team desperate enough to pay even though they know the competition is reduced. Dealing in the winter opens the floor to more teams, not only because everyone is a contender in the winter, but because teams will have more payroll flexibility, at least early on.

With Oswalt the situation becomes a bit more complex. The Astros included a full no-trade clause in his contract, which even further reduces the market for his services. He clearly didn’t want to leave Houston — he was one win short of tying the franchise record, and, well, he got the NTC into his contract for a reason. Houston was limited in any dealing with him, deadline or not. It does seem, though, that they were down to one or two possible teams. That rarely makes for a robust return.

We’ll never know what Houston could get if they chose to wait until the winter to deal Oswalt. They still would have had the issue of the NTC, and there’s no telling whether Oswalt would have waived it if the deal didn’t send him to a contender. Since it’s easier to identify a contender now than it will be in the winter, perhaps they did do the best they could. Without knowing definitively, I’d have to lean that way when making a judgment.

Did Houston get enough in return?

Given all the above, it doesn’t seem like Houston was in line for much of a return. By himself Oswalt is a valuable player, a No. 2 pitcher who has been an ace in the past. He’s signed only through his age-33, which helps his prospects, but that’s still a large contract whether deserved or not. That no-trade clause further limited the situation. Even a team that seeks to add a starter knows that Houston is in a bind.

The ideal return for Houston was high-ceiling, low-level players. Keith Law ranked their farm system No. 28, so it doesn’t look like they have much of an immediate future. As he notes, though, their new scouting director, Bobby Heck, has assembled some decent talent during the past few years, so Houston might be back in contention by, say, 2012 or 2013. Picking up guys playing A-ball, then, could be the best course, since they’ll be nearing readiness at that point.

The centerpiece of the deal, though, not only has major league experience, but already has over a year of accumulated service time. J.A. Happ spent all of 2009 with the big league club, and his 47 stray days in 2007 and 2008 will probably make his short minor league stint this year moot. That is, he’ll almost certainly have two years of service time at the end of this year, meaning the Astros get him for one year at a mid-six figures salary before heading to arbitration for three years. That can be good, though, since he’d have some experience when the team is ready to contend again.

Baseball America rated Happ the Phillies No. 9 prospect heading into the 2009 season, noting that he “lacks a standout pitch and doesn’t figure to get all those strikeouts on fastballs as easily in the majors as he did in Triple-A.” That rang true in 2009. After striking out 8.9 per nine in 2007 and 10 in 2008, Happ struck out just 6.45 per nine in 2009. He doesn’t have a great walk rate, but he has generally kept the ball in the park despite a fly ball tendency. He has pitched just 15.1 major league innings this year because of a forearm strain that kept him on the DL from mid-April until recently. He hasn’t had problems with that part of his arm since he missed 15 days in 2007 with elbow inflammation.

The other two players in the trade, Anthony Gose and Jonathan Villar, are both 19-year-olds playing in A ball, Gose in advanced and Villar in low. Of the two Gose is the better prospect, ranking No. 6 in the Phillies’ system per BA and seventh on Marc Hulet’s list. Yet he’s irrelevant at this point, because he’s been traded to Toronto. That leaves the return from that trade plus Villar. Or Villan. Whichever you prefer, I guess.

Update: Houston received 3B/1B Brett Wallace from the Blue Jays. This, I think, changes the equation a bit. From what I’ve heard the consensus is that Wallace will end up at first, which gives the Astros a replacement there should they decline Lance Berkman’s 2011 option. Hell, it might even open up a trade for Berkman before the deadline, though that does sound unlikely. Hulet ranked Wallace the Blue Jays’ No. 1 prospect and BA rated him No. 27 overall. Wallace has hit for more power this year in the PCL, though he’s walked a bit less. In any case, he’s another player who will be in place, with some experience, when the Astros are rebuilt. This changes the trade for sure, making it look a bit better from Houston’s perspective.

Baseball America ranked Villar the Phillies No. 22 prospect, saying that he “has as much upside as any Phillies infield prospect.” He showed in 2008 that he’ll take a pitch, walking in 11.8 percent of his PA. Yet this year he’s cut that rate almost in half, all the way down to 6.2 percent of his 420 Sally League PA. He has also gone from striking out in 22 percent of his PA to striking out in 24.5 percent this year. These are not uncommon trends for a developing 19-year-old, but it’s troubling when BA says that he’ll need to work on his contact and he suddenly starts making less of it. Again, either Smith or Hulet will have a fuller look at him.

The bottom line

We finish right where we started, with two questions about the deal.

1) Did Houston get players that will help them more than Oswalt?

2) Could they have gotten more?

To No. 1, we’re not sure. Happ is a nice pitcher and should present an upgrade to the remaining rotation. He has four more years of team control and could still be around when the team climbs towards the top of the NL Central. He’s no Oswalt, but he’ll be there while Oswalt probably would have bolted after 2011. Villar and whomever the Astros get for Gose might not work out, but they give Houston a few more chances. That’s no small consolation for a team that spent years with the worst farm system in baseball.

To No. 2, we don’t know for sure. Looking at the Dan Haren trade, it doesn’t look like teams are sacrificing much in exchange for veteran pitching. Haren was a more attractive target than Oswalt for a number of reasons, and realistically Houston might have gotten a better return. I’d certainly put my money on Happ over Saunders, even more so when you consider service time and salary. Perhaps Houston could have found a few more suitors during the winter, but that was no sure thing. From all appearances Houston wanted to get rid of Oswalt, and sending him to a contender mid-season seemed like the best vehicle for doing so.

I’ve seen plenty of comments which suggest the Astros got fleeced in the deal. In a vacuum this might be true, but we know that nothing in baseball operates in a vacuum. There are plenty of other considerations, and I think I covered them in this article. What I think it boils down to is what Patrick Sullivan of Baseball Analysts wrote: “At some point, if enough sellers ‘get fleeced,’ it’s just the market.” Considering what we’ve seen so far, I’d say that’s the case.

When we see that a team has used 10 different starting pitchers at this point in the season, it usually raises a red flag. A team will, under most circumstances, break camp with its five best pitchers in the rotation. Using starters beyond those five signals injury or ineffectiveness, since the team must employ pitchers who didn’t make the initial cut. To have used seven starters by this point is one thing. To use 10, well, there must be some problems in the rotation. Yet this isn’t the case with the Texas Rangers. Injuries and ineffectiveness have forced them to use 10 starting pitchers, but they rank third in the AL in ERA at 3.80. They also have the largest discrepancy between their ERA and FIP.

Much of that discrepancy comes from 23-year-old Tommy Hunter. He has been quite effective since his recall in June — as Andy at the Baseball-Referecnce blog notes, he has won eight straight decisions this season. His 2.31 ERA is best among AL pitchers with at least 60 IP. But we know the perils of basing analysis on wins and ERA. Good pitchers can slump and poor pitchers can streak, leaving us with a set of skewed numbers that will change in short order. This appears to be the case with Hunter. He’s not bad, really, but he’s currently pitching well above his head.

Hunter is currently experiencing one of the greatest combinations for pitcher performance: low BABIP and high strand rate. Since he has kept his strikeout and walk rates low he allows many balls in play — of the 251 batters he has faced 194 have hit the ball into fair play. Yet only 44 of those 194 have fallen in for hits, leaving him with a .234 BABIP, second lowest among AL pitchers with 60 IP. When those runners do reach base, they tend to stay there. Hunter has allowed 44 non-homer hits, has hit three, and has walked 15. Of those baserunners, 86.2 have been stranded on the base paths. This, too, is the highest mark in the AL.

The trend of stranding baserunners has come recently. In July it has been downright insane, as he has allowed 21 non-homer hits, has hit one, and has walked seven, yet has stranded 97.7 percent of those base runners. This might look a bit strange, since he has allowed six home runs this month, or one to every roughly 22 batters he’s faced. But five of those home runs have come with no men on base. The only other was his latest serving, a two-run homer to Hideki Matsui on Sunday.

In June his strand rate, 76.7 percent, was far closer to league average. Yet that month, despite pitching 27 innings at his home ballpark, he allowed just one homer. That, too, was a solo shot, coming during his complete-game season debut against the Rays. His HR/FB ratio that month was 2.8 percent. It is no surprise, then, that despite low strikeout totals he exited June with a 2.15 ERA.

This isn’t to say that Hunter is doomed to a steep and depressing decline. He does have something working for him. After his debut on June 5 Dave Allen wrote about Hunter’s high curveballs. That might seem like more of a burden, since it’s easy to associate high curves with hanging curves. Yet as Derek Carty found, high curves can be even more effective than their low counterparts. It can, perhaps, aid pitchers in inducing poor contact. Since high curves will presumably hit in the air, that can also bring down a pitcher’s expected HR/FB ratio. So while Hunter is certainly due a regression of some sorts, he very well might not see his ERA climb all the way to the level of his FIP, 4.41, or his xFIP, 4.81.

Hunter’s performance to date has helped the Rangers maintain their considerable lead in the AL West. They have faced some problems in the rotation, with injuries to Rich Harden, Derek Holland, and Matt Harrison, and ineffectiveness from Scott Feldman. Cliff Lee has come to the rescue, and so has Tommy Hunter. Even if he experiences declining numbers starting on Saturday, he’ll have made a big contribution to the 2010 Rangers and their quest for the AL West crown.

Later this evening Troy Tulowitzki will make his return from the DL after missing a little over a month with a chipped bone in his left wrist. It’s always tough for a contender to lose one of its stars. This goes especially for infield stars, since it’s tougher for teams to find replacements who can even remotely approximate the star’s production. A few contenders have faced the issue this year, and a few of them have gotten lucky with the replacement.

Injured: Troy Tulowitzki

Before his injury Tulowitzki was hitting .306/.375/.502, a beastly line for a shortstop. Even better, he’d recovered from a slow start and was hitting .308/.390/.545 since May 1. When he hit the DL in the middle of June Clint Barmes, who had been manning second base, slid over to shortstop. That left Jonathan Herrera, a 25-year-old who started the year repeating AAA for the third season, as Tulowitzki’s ultimate replacement. It was probably a stretch to expect much from a career .282/.347/.367 minor league hitter.

Yet Herrera has performed his task admirably, hitting .321/.377/.382 in Tulowitzki’s absence. The power isn’t there, of course, but he’s been getting on base at a rate equal to Tulowitzki’s season to date. Sure, that’s on the power of a .369 BABIP, but that doesn’t matter much when we’re talking about replacement performance. Herrera did all the Rockies could have asked. They still missed Tulo, but not as much as expected.

Injured: David Freese

The Cardinals took a gamble by handing their starting third base job to a 27-year-old rookie, but there were indicators that David Freese was ready for the show. His lowest SLG in the minors was .489, and that came during a stint in A+ ball in 2007. He jumped right to AAA after that and had little trouble adjusting. His overall minor league line was .308/.385/.532, and while he didn’t hit quite that well during his first 270 PA in 2010, his .296/.361/.404 line was certainly a productive one.

Perhaps his ankle injury was bothering him for a while. Freese was, after all, hitting .318/.386/.460 heading into June, but then his numbers, especially power, fell off. He hit the DL retroactive to his last appearance, June 27, to be replaced by Felipe Lopez, whom the Cardinals signed at a bargain rate late in the off-season. Since June 28 Lopez is hitting .312/.373/.441, or a close approximation of Freese’s early season numbers. He’ll have to keep it up, too, as Freese will miss even more time after dropping a freeweight on his toe.

Injured: Dustin Pedroia

On June 1 Dustin Pedroia had hit a low point. After a strong first month he slipped in May, and started June with a .254/.331/.445 line, hardly the stuff of a 2008 MVP award winner. But then he repeated his 2007 laser show, hitting .384/.461.640 from June 2 through 25. In that last game, though, he fouled a ball off his foot and fractured it. He’s been out ever since, making him just another in a long line of injured Red Sox. You’d think they’d have trouble finding adequate replacements.

Bill Hall has been the man most frequently summoned to handle the keystone in Pedroia’s absence. From June 26 through yesterday, though, Hall wasn’t getting the job done. In 83 PA he has hit just .227/.289/.480, hardly the stuff the Sox have grown used to out of that position. Last night the Sox turned to Jed Lowrie, though that doesn’t seem all that encouraging an option. Hall, at least, hits for power. It’s a tough call as to whom the Sox missed most, Pedroia or Victor Martinez. I suppose it has to be Pedroia, though, because Martinez is back behind the plate.

Injured: Chase Utley

This year has not been a Chase Utley year. Sure, his numbers place him above most second basemen, but his BA, OBP, and SLG are all down a bit from what he has produced in the past five years. A knee injury might have contributed to that. So might have his right thumb. He tore a ligament in it, which is why he currently sits on the DL. Still, a diminished Utley is still better than most other second basemen, nevermind an in-house replacement. The Phillies really had no way to salvage this one.

The main man in Utley’s stead has been Wilson Valdez. Unsurprisingly he’s hit much like, well, Wilson Valdez. In the 73 PA he’s accumulated since Utley’s injury Valdez has hit .224/.268/.373. What makes matters worse is that Valdez has been called on frequently this season. He filled in for the injured Jimmy Rollins after the Phillies had seen enough of Juan Castro, and then took Placido Polanco’s spot for two games before he had to slide over to second and replace Utley. It’s tough for a team to win when they’ve given a player with a 66 OPS+ more than 200 plate appearances before the trade deadline.

Injured: Mark Teahen

Losing a middling player like Mark Teahen might not seem like a big deal, but there is a reason that the White Sox traded for him this past off-season. They had few options at third base and Teahen represented an upgrade. He didn’t disappoint much with his .255/.340/.387 line, mainly because it was tough to expect more. He’s been hurt for quite a while now, and when he comes back he might find himself out of a job.

The Sox have started two players in his place. First is the 43-year-old Omar Vizquel. He was brought in to back up most infield positions, though with Teahen’s injury he has played the majority of his games, 41, at third. He’s hitting .301/.371/.374 as the replacement third baseman, and will probably continue to see time there even after the nominal starter returns. It’s unlikely that at age 43 Vizquel starts every day, and matters get complicated because his bat is better from the left side, the same side Teahen hits.

The Sox have also used rookie Dayan Viciedo, though without nearly the effectiveness of Vizquel. Recalled subsequent to Teahen’s injury, Viciedo i just 13 for 49 with no walks and four extra base hits when filling in at third. Chances are he’s the odd man out once Teahen returns.

The Braves, it appears, perpetually seek outfield help. Last year they struck early to address the issue, trading for Nate McLouth in early June. It seemed like a fairly safe bet. McLouth had produced a .364 wOBA in 2007, which he followed with a .369 mark, including an uptick in power, during his 2008 breakout season. In 2009 he had produced a .365 wOBA prior to the trade, so the Braves were fairly confident of his ability to maintain his output. Even if he dipped a little he’d provide an upgrade over the hodgepodge of washed-up and never-were outfielders.

The transition from Pittsburgh to Atlanta didn’t exactly go smoothly for McLouth, but it didn’t go poorly either. He produces a .342 wOBA for the Braves in his 396 PA, though his power fell off a bit. His strikeout rate rose a bit, but that wasn’t too much a surprise. It was really in 2008 that his strikeout rate fell, so perhaps that was the anomaly. But, all considered it wasn’t bad at all, especially considering his $2 million salary. The Braves didn’t make much noise, though they did go from .500 upon McLouth’s arrival to 10 above .500 by season’s end. Plus, they had Nate for two more seasons at a reasonable rate, plus a $10.65 million option for 2012.

Yet in 2010 the Braves haven’t realized any of McLouth’s potential value. He has been a net negative in every sense this year — except, maybe, that his walk rate has remained consistent with last year. His AVG is down to .168, and no matter how little you regard batting average that is not a number befitting an MLB starter. His power is way down, too, a .097 ISO that comprises a paltry dozen extra base hits in 220 PA. To date he has produced -1.3 WAR, which nearly offsets the value he provided the Braves last year.

These numbers obviously fall a long way from what the projection engines had in mind. CHONE pegged McLouth for a .355 wOBA, Marcel for .358, and ZiPS had him highest of all at .364. The best part about ZiPS is that it is a self-correcting machine. It has already placed lower expectations on the remainder of McLouth’s season, projecting a .339 wOBA the rest of the way, knocking his ISO down nearly 20 points from his preseason projection. Even that seems a bit optimistic. It would take a drastic and immediate turnaround for McLouth to realize anything close to his previous value.

A little more than a year after acquiring McLouth to help fill a void in the outfield, the Braves could be seeking more help. This time, however, it would be to replace McLouth. While they have solutions at the corners with Jason Heyward and an Eric Hinske – Matt Diaz platoon, center field remains an issue. Melky Cabrera and Gregor Blanco filled in while McLouth sat for a month and a half with a concussion, but neither is an ideal season-long solution. The Braves’ outfielders rank 13th in the NL in wOBA (.319) and are slightly below average, per UZR, defensively. They could certainly use an upgrade in center, especially it’s a rental. They do, after all, have McLouth under contract for one more year.

Despite the optimistic ZiPS rest of season forecast, we’re essentially at the point where we can write off McLouth’s 2010 as a lost cause. Though it’s never a positive for a player to miss that much time with a concussion, there was a chance that the break from baseball would help McLouth clear up anything that wasn’t working earlier in the season. Yet he’s collected just one hit in 15 PA since his return while grounding into two double plays and striking out twice. No, 15 PA doesn’t mean much when isolated, but considering McLouth’s failings earlier in the season it does not present a positive sign at all. I’m sure the Braves aren’t placing any expectations on him for the remainder of the season.

If, before the season, you said that the Indians’ staff would have a 4.48 ERA, 24th in the majors, I might not have believed you. The 2009 Indians finished with a 5.07 ERA, 29th in baseball, and that was with the benefit of 22 Cliff Lee starts. The 2010 staff would get back Jake Westbrook and had a maturing Justin Masterson, but that hardly seemed like enough to compensate for the loss of Lee. The Indians, it seemed, were in for another rough year.

While 2010 hasn’t been exactly pretty, it hasn’t been quite as bad as 2009. Fausto Carmona has realized a rebound year, Rafael Perez hasn’t been atrocious out of the pen, and Mitch Talbot has been a welcome surprise. Even Masterson has been death to righties. That doesn’t add up to much of a staff, but it’s certainly one better than the 2009 version. Yet this unit could be quite better if the Indians surrounded it with more compatible players.

The Indians lead the league in groundball percentage and have the lowest flyball percentage in the league. That’s good news for a staff that ranks last in the league in strikeouts and second to last in walk rate. The ground balls might lead to more hits, but not more hits for extra bases. To that end, the Indians have the sixth highest batting average against in the majors, but just the 19th worst ISO. To that extent, the plan is working.

At the shortstop position the Indians rank dead last, by no small margin, in UZR. They also rank dead last in DRS. They rank 26th with a -5.2 UZR at third base and rank 21st with a -4.2 UZR at second. The team outfield also ranks worst in the majors, though that’s not as big a problem because of the low flyball rate (though clearly still isn’t preferable). So while Masterson, Carmona, and Westbrook — who rank second, fifth, and 13th in the majors in groundball rate — serve up potential outs, the infield cannot convert them.

The Indians are no one’s idea of a good team. They’re 40-55, last in the AL Central and things don’t appear to be getting much better. Sure, they stormed out of the gate after the All-Star break and beat up on the Tigers and won the first two in a series with the Twins, but that’s hardly indicative of their long-term outlook. They face Tampa Bay and New York for their next six games, and we’ll likely see them knocked back down to earth. Chances are they’ll finish the season in last. Yet they can still take away something positive.

Like most small-market, rebuilding clubs, the Indians are placing their hopes on the strength of their farm system. While they wait for their lower-level prospects to develop, though, they can limit the damage by employing those groundball pitchers. They might even find a few mid-rotation starters for when they’re really ready to contend. The problem is that they don’t have the defense to make that scheme work. It’s baffling, really, because their infielders have all hit for below average numbers. If they’re already getting that low level of production, is it that hard to find similar offensive producers who can actually play defense?

Overview

The Yankees are currently 59-34, leading the AL East by 2.5 games. They have either been tied for the lead or held it since June 13, but that doesn’t mean that they lack weaknesses. In the rough and tumble AL East a couple of flaws can set a team a long way back.

Buy or Sell

While the Yankees might be vulnerable in some aspects, they’re pretty solid in terms of regulars. The team ranks second in the league in wOBA, and doesn’t have a position that would require an upgrade. They also have five solid-to-excellent starters and an elite closer. This leaves few areas for improvement.

The one semi-regular spot the Yanks could see fit to augment is center field, where Curtis Granderson has continued to falter against left-handed pitchers, producing a .250 wOBA in 97 PA against them. The Yankees do want to get him straightened out against lefties, but for this year a platoon partner will help further their championship goals. A versatile RHB outfielder like Cody Ross, who can take a corner while Brett Gardner slides into center, might help when facing lefties.

An upgrade at utility infielder could also be on the shopping list, since Ramiro Pena continues to be one of the lightest hitting in the business. He can pick it like anyone, as the Yankees commentators are fond of saying, but he produces almost nothing at the plate. At this time last year the Yankees acquired Jerry Hairston from the Reds, and they could see a similar player at the deadline this year.

In the first half the Yankees’ bullpen represented one of its weakest points. Outside of Mariano Rivera almost every reliever performed below expectations. While the team maintains faith in Joba Chamberlain as the primary setup man, that might need to change. Whether that means moving David Robertson into a more prominent role or bringing in someone from outside the organization, the relief corps figures to see a few changes in the next week and a half. The relief options are slim, of course, and most contenders could use a bullpen upgrade, so we might not see movement on this front. But it won’t be for a lack of trying.

The one other area the Yankees could upgrade is in the starting rotation. The Yanks like what they have for the most part, but they do have a few issues. Andy Pettitte is currently on the DL, and estimates for his return vary depending on whom you ask. Even if he is out for only another three weeks, the Yankees could still use another starter to supplement the rotation. Not only could they find someone better than Sergio Mitre to replace Pettitte, but after Pettitte’s return they could use the extra starter to help ease Phil Hughes’s workload. The 24-year-old hasn’t pitched more than 111 innings since 2006. He is currently at 106.

On the Farm

The Yanks have already tried to use their best minor league player, Jesus Montero, in a deal for Cliff Lee. That has fallen through, and GM Brian Cashman has said that there are no other options on the trade market that would tempt him to trade his 20-year-old AAA catcher.

After Montero the team’s best prospect is fellow catcher Austin Romine, but since the Yankees think he’s more likely to stick behind the plate they could be reluctant to trade him. They also have a number of arms with decent upsides, but few would bring back a big name in return. That works for the Yankees, since they’re not looking for a major player.

For the most part, the farm will be used to help supplement the bench and the bullpen in August.

Budget

Most observers don’t think that the Yankees have a real budget, even though they worked with the constraints of one this winter. Even last summer they had a chance to add payroll and declined. Cashman had worked out a deal for Mike Cameron, but Hal Steinbrenner nixed it because of the payroll the team would absorb. With a smaller base payroll for the 2010 season perhaps they’d be more open to adding salary. But, again, given the players they seek it shouldn’t be much of an issue.

It was a classic case of why we don’t take early season stats seriously. Entering his fifth start of the season on April 29, Jair Jurrjens sported a 5.48 ERA. He hadn’t pitched particularly poorly, but did have one rough outing that made his overall performance seem a bit worse. He didn’t help matters in that fifth start, as he allowed a three-run homer in the first before leaving the game with a strained hamstring. He hit a snag during his recovery, and ended up missing two full months. The rest appears to have done him some good, as he’s been excellent since returning on June 30.

We can see some pretty stark differences in Jurrjens pre-injury and Jurrjens post-injury. For starters, here’s his velocity graph:

It looks like his first and third starts were at pre-2010 levels, while his starts at San Diego, New York, and then St. Louis were way down. The St. Louis start is understandably lower than the rest, since he was probably pitching through hamstring woes in the first. It does appear, however, that the Atlanta gun might be a tad hot. The four highest-reaching bars on the chart are all starts at home. Last night, when pitching at home, he maxed at 94 while averaging 91.

We can see plenty of other changes in Jurrjens from earlier in the season, even during his better starts. Most notably, we see big changes in his strand and strikeout rates.

This is nothing but good news for the Braves. While Jurrjens was out of the rotation the team went on a tear, moving atop the NL East standings and even creating a bit of a cushion. Now with Jurrjens back in the rotation they’re that much stronger. ZiPS projects him to pitch 120.7 more innings this season, procuing a 3.95 ERA against a 4.10 FIP. That will fit perfectly in the Braves’ rotation.

When we eventually look at Jurrjens’ season in retrospect this off-season, we probably won’t remove those April starts in which he skewed his season numbers. After all, it’s not like those games didn’t happen. They did, and they contributed to the Braves’ slow start. But he’s also contributing to their current winning ways, and figures to continue doing so for the rest of the season.

Part of the reason that the Cardinals signed Matt Holliday to a seven-year, $120 million contract this winter is that they needed help in the outfield. While there was plenty of promise out there, the team couldn’t exactly count on results for 2010. Ryan Ludwick had just posted a disappointing follow-up season to his 2008 career year, and Colby Rasmus was still an unseasoned 23-year-old. They needed solidity out there, and that’s why they retained Holliday. When they then got superior production from Rasmus and a rebound from Ludwick, the Cardinals boasted one of the top outfield units in the league.

All three outfielders have produced numbers that are well above league average. Holliday unsurprisingly leads the bunch with a .397 wOBA, though Rasmus isn’t far behind at .381. Ludwick, after seeing his wOBA drop from .406 in 2008 to .336 in 2009, is back up to .352. Those three have covered the easy majority of the season at their positions; no other Cardinal has more than 72 PA as an outfielder. It came as a disappointment, then, that Ludwick hit the DL retroactive to June 26 with a strained left calf. But given his primary replacement, the Cardinals aren’t missing his production very much.

Jon Jay was having a reasonably successful season after the Cardinals called him up in late April, hitting .302/.302/.442 in 45 PA. The obvious weakness is that he drew zero walks in that span. His .364 BABIP suggested that he’d hit considerably below that level if given an extended look. Apparently they saw that, too, and decided to sign Randy Winn, whom the Yankees had released in May. Jay was the roster casualty, sent back to AAA so he could continue his hitting display against PCL pitchers. But when Ludwick hit the DL in early July, the Cardinals called Jay’s number again.

The Chief Justice has gone on a tear in Ludwick’s stead, producing a .539 wOBA since his recall. That brings his season wOBA to .429, though in a mere 86 PA. Of those, 41 have come since July 3, which seems like a low number. That’s because Tony LaRussa has kept him in a pretty strict platoon. Only six of his PA this season have come against righties. Under normal circumstances a platoon would work to Jay’s advantage once Ludwick returns, and since LaRussa has said that Jay will get enough at-bats later in the season, a platoon might seem likely for a lefty-righty outfield combo. But given Ludwick’s performance, that might not be the best idea.

Ludwick is one of a rare breed, along with Cody Ross and Rickey Henderson, who bats righty but throws lefty. But while the other two perform like typical RHB in that they hit LHP far better than same-handed pitchers, Ludwick has a reverse platoon split. The difference is pretty stark in 2010, a .374 wOBA against righties and a .300 mark against lefties, but it has been that way for his entire career. In 1293 PA against righties he has a .369 wOBA, while in 634 PA against lefties he has a .333 wOBA. He is not, then, an ideal player to platoon with Jay, who possesses a typical lefty split. In the minors he had roughly a .311 wOBA against lefties and a .364 mark against righties.

In fact, creating any type of platoon with Jay and another outfielder probably wouldn’t work, as they all hit righties exceedingly well. Rasmus, also a lefty, has crushed RHP this season, a .266 ISO that factors heavily into his .388 wOBA against them. Even last year, when he hit relatively weakly overall, he produced a .341 wOBA against righties while managing just a .218 wOBA against lefties. Holliday hits everyone well, though against righties this year he’s faring slightly better, a .395 wOBA vs. a .391 mark against lefties. That split, too, holds up over his career, as he’s produced a .402 wOBA against righties and a .378 wOBA against lefties.

(Not that either would face a platoon anyway.)

Jay has been a useful player since his recall, filling in for Ludwick better than anyone could have reasonably expected. When, then, will LaRussa find playing time for him when Ludwick returns this weekend? It might not actually be that big an issue. After all, it’s not as though Jay was some superstar prospect waiting for a spot to open. Baseball America did rate him as the Cardinals’ best minor league hitter for average, but did not rank him in their top 10. Nor did Marc Hulet. We’ve seen this plenty from young players before. They come up and mash for a while before reverting to their expected forms. Thankfully for the Cardinals, Jay’s hot streak comes as he fills in for an injured player. You can’t ask for much more than that.

The Cardinals do have a few options to face LHP, Winn and Nick Stavinoha, though Winn has been stronger against RHP in his career and Savinoha hasn’t hit very well in general. Somehow I don’t think that will become much of an issue. The Cardinals get plenty of production out of Holliday and Albert Pujols against LHP, so I’m sure they’re perfectly content with their righty-mashing outfield trio. Jay has been the perfect fill-in, and will remain a solid reserve and pinch-hitting option for the remainder of the season. As for finding regular playing time, though, I’m not sure it’s in the cards. The current starters can do what Jay does plenty well. It sounds like a pretty favorable situation in St. Louis.

Coming out of the All-Star break the Tigers had a chance to change the landscape of the AL Central. The two other teams in the race, the White Sox and the Twins, faced off against each other, while the Tigers took on the last-place Indians. The Twins did their part to change the standings by taking three of four, but the Tigers could not capitalize. They left Cleveland without a win. So while the AL Central landscape did change, it did not benefit Detroit. Instead, the weekend series left them with a woeful road record of 16-29, which is worse than all but six teams in the league. Those six teams reside in the cellars of their respective divisions.

The team’s road troubles, unsurprisingly, come from both the offense and the pitching. As a team the Tigers have a 5.22 road ERA, worst in the AL. They’ve started seven pitchers for more than two games on the road and the lowest ERA of the bunch, 4.94, belongs to a guy no longer on the team, Dontrelle Willis. Tigers pitchers allow opponents to get on base when on the road, recording a .355 OBP-against that ranks second to last in the AL and a 1.49 WHIP that ranks third to last.

At home, the pitching staff is much better. It has a collective 3.53 ERA, good for fourth in the AL. Its OBP against falls to .318 at home, which is right in the middle of the AL pack. Its WHIP is also middle of the pack at 1.31. Those starters with inflated ERAs on the road perform much better at home. The highest ERA of those with more than two home starts is Dontrelle at 5.03. Of the active Tigers Rick Porcello leads the way at 4.37.

On offense, the Tigers have something of a power problem on the road. When away from Comerica Park the team is slugging .394 with a .133 ISO. At home they’re a bit better: a .445 SLG with a .159 ISO. There is also a .017 difference in BABIP, which helps account for the .025 difference in AVG. Even still, that puts the Tigers in a decent position, eighth in the AL in road SLG and fifth in road OBP. In other words, the offense might be worse on the road than at home, but that doesn’t make them totally bad on the road. First-place Texas, for instance, ranks ninth in road OBP and 12th in road SLG among AL teams.

The chances for a turnaround, then, seem to rest on the pitching staff. The good news is that despite the AL-worst road ERA, the staff actually has a decent road FIP, 4.05. If the Tigers’ ERA and FIP matched, they would have allowed only 172 earned runs on the road rather than 221. If we give them 181 total runs, that would leave them with a run differential of -3, which puts them in a much better position. If the Tigers can manage that kind of performance in the second half (even though they’ve gotten off to a bad start), they can continue making the AL Central a three-team shootout.

Then again, if they’re going to improve on the road they’ll also have to maintain some of their lofty production at home. At 32-13, the Tigers have a better home record than every team in baseball except Atlanta, and even then it’s a one-loss difference. Unsurprisingly, the team home ERA is considerably lower than its FIP, 3.53 to 3.91. Using the same method as above, that would translate to roughly 187 runs allowed. That’s good for a run differential of +44, or a .604 winning percentage.

Where does that leave the Tigers? If we correct for terrible pitching luck on the road and do the same for their home pitching performance, we get a rough estimate of a .553 winning percentage, which is actually a bit better than where they’re at right now. We can’t exactly expect the Tigers to start pitching more to their FIP either at home or on the road — who knows how long their poor and good luck situations can last — but it also looks like the Tigers might stick around in the second half despite their -2 run differential.

After getting those four games in Cleveland out of the way the Tigers have 36 games remaining on the road and 36 at home. If their current paces continue, obviously, they’ll stay in the same place, a .533 win percentage that probably won’t be good enough to win the division. But what can they do if they’re going to make a run? The team sports similar FIP numbers on the road and at home, yet have realized far worse results on the road. That doesn’t seem like something they can actively correct. Maybe they’ll add a piece or two, but for the most part they’ll have to wait it out. If their luck turns around we could see a compelling AL Central race. If it doesn’t, we might be tuning into the Twins and White Sox show come September.

When the Angels signed Torii Hunter to a five-year, $90 million contract after the 2007 season it seemed like an overpay. In fact, given the teams competing for Hunter’s services, it almost certainly was an overpay in terms of objective value. But when five other teams make offers, an overpay might be necessary to land the player you covet. The Rangers were reportedly offering a five-year deal with a sixth-year option that would have ended up paying Hunter somewhere around $84 million. The Angels, desperate to add offense, felt that Hunter was worth more to them and made their limited-time offer.

In 2002 and 2003, as Hunter played through his prime years, he looked like one of the league’s premier center fielders. He produced 4.5 WAR in 2002, ninth among MLB center fielders, though a number of them were approaching their declining years. In 2003 his hitting dipped, but his defense was better than ever, 16.5 FRAA, which ranked fourth in the majors. Despite the poor hitting season, -4.5 RAA, Hunter’s value exceeded the $4.75 million his contract paid him. It looked like he’d be on track to continue that through the four-year, $32 million contract he had signed with the Twins after the 2002 season.

Yet from there Hunter continued to fall. In 2004, he produced 7.5 RAA and 1.4 FRAA for 2.8 WAR, 17th in the majors. In 2005, he was injured and did not qualify, but his rate stats looked a lot like his 2004 season. In 2006 and 2007 his bat improved a bit, but his fielding declined, -8 FRAA in 2006 and -2.9 FRAA in 2007. He ranked 14th in WAR in 2007 (2.5) and and 10th (3.3) in 2007. He still carried a reputation as an elite player, though, and it was no surprise that he received offers from those five teams. That excluded the three-year, $45 million offer from the Twins which he promptly rejected. It was a surprise, however, that the Angels bid as high as they did.

Hunter’s contract called for $16 million in 2008, $17.5 million in 2008, and $18 million from 2010 through 2012. In no year to that point did Hunter’s WAR justify a salary that high. But the market was different back in 2002 when Hunter produced 4.5 WAR. With offensive value shifting across the league, perhaps the Angels would break even on this deal. That’s not a bad place to be on a free agent contract. Yet, in Hunter’s first season away from the Twins his production reverted to its 2004-2006 levels. He produced -10.3 FRAA and 13.0 RAA for 2.4 WAR, which had a dollars conversion of $10.8 million, $5.2 million below his contract. He also ranked 16th among major league center fielders in WAR.

Last year Hunter turned that around, and it looks like he’s aiming to do the same this year. While he still finished 2009 as a below average center fielder, his FRAA was -1.3, so he was pretty close to average. He also turned on the thrusters with the bat, producing 13.0 RAA on the strength of a career-high .379 wOBA. He walked more than he ever had previously in his career and got his ISO back over .200. That led to a 3.8 WAR season, which ranked sixth in the majors and second in the AL. Best of all for the Angels, his dollars conversion nearly matched his salary.

This year Hunter is at it again. Through 366 PA he’s in the midst of what could be a repeat of his 2009 season. His walk rate is up more than two points over his career-high last season, he’s hitting the ball on a line more often than ever, and his .220 ISO is his highest since 2002. There’s always the chance that his production declines in the second half, but given Hunter’s steady production during the past year and a half there’s a good chance he’ll continue hitting at a level close to this. With offense down slightly, Hunter’s value could actually equal his $18 million salary this season.

If you were skeptical of Hunter’s ability to repeat his 2009 season, you have plenty of company. His .330 BABIP certainly stood out as a career high and about 30 points higher than his career average. That pushed his AVG to a career-high .299, so it stands to reason that a lower BABIP would bring down Hunter’s overall numbers. This year his BABIP still exceeds his career mark, but it is at .310, considerably lower than last year. Even still, he’s hitting .293, is walking more, and has displayed more power. We often hear that power and patience are the last skills to decline. Torii Hunter seems to agree.