Part of a manager’s job is to determine when his players need a breather. For some players, that might be only once a season. For instance, last year in the AL Robinson Cano, Brandon Inge, and Nick Markakis missed just one game each, while Prince Fielder led the NL by playing in all 162 games. When it comes to catchers, though, the question becomes a bit more difficult. Squatting causes plenty of wear and tear, so if a manager wants to get optimal production from the catching spot he has to recognize when his backstop needs a day off.

After starting Yadier Molina in 11 of the team’s first 12 games, including the entirety of a 20-inning affair, I criticized Cardinals manager Tony LaRussa for working his catcher too hard. While Yadier presented a far, far better option than inexperienced backup Bryan Anderson, he also has his limitations. Playing him too much earlier in the season could mean more fatigue down the road. For a team with a catcher as good as Yadier, that can become a rather large issue later in the season.

While Yadier didn’t see immediate ill effects — he hit .375/.438/.464 in the 64 PA following the 20-inning game — he has fallen off a bit lately. Since a 4 for 5 game against Pittsburgh on May 7 Molina has just seven hits in 50 PA, just one for extra bases. We cannot definitively point to Molina’s excessive playing time as a reason for this slump — slumps happen, after all, even to the best hitters in the league — but the correlation is somewhat troubling. Yadier, after all, has caught a large portion of his team’s innings.

Molina is not alone in catching a large percentage of his team’s innings. Here’s a quick breakdown.

Jason Kendall presents the most interesting case here. He has caught by far the most innings of any catcher in the majors, yet ranks among the worst hitters. His .347 OBP is the only saving grace in his line, which amounts to a .309 wOBA, which ranks 19th out of the 24 MLB catchers with at least 100 PA. Is Brayan Pena really that bad? Another good question: will this change with Ned Yost in charge?

Matt Wieters actually ranks worst in this group in terms of wOBA. This is more understandable, because he’s still a young player trying to find his way in the majors. At 83 percent of his team’s innings he’s catching more than most other catchers, which is a concern, but clearly not as big a concern as someone like Kendall, an older player catching nearly every inning his pitchers throw.

All four catchers on the list rank in the bottom half of catchers. Russell Martin started off hot but has cooled off considerably, especially in terms of power. He currently ranks 16th out of 24 qualifying catchers. Molina has caught a slightly lesser portion of his team’s innings, most likely because of Jason LaRue’s return. Still, maybe the extra work early in the season has taken a toll. He currently ranks 18th among peers in wOBA.

Drawing conclusions from this small a sample does no good. We can see that each of these catchers has caught a disproportionate number of his team’s innings, which intuitively sounds like a bad thing for the long haul. Reading too much into their production, however, will not yield any valuable insights. Every player slumps, and we can’t simply pin the poor play of Kendall, Martin, Molina, and Wieters on their playing time. Too may other factors are at work.

What we can do, and what I will do, is revisit this topic and these players throughout the season. I don’t think we’ll find any definitive connections, but perhaps we can gain an insight or two by seeing whether these catchers continue squatting for this many of their teams’ innings.

The main component of the Padres’ surprise first-place standing has been its pitching. The team has seen excellent performances from Mat Latos, Wade LeBlanc, Clayton Richard, and especially Jon Garland. It was only a few years ago that Garland was a revered innings eater. During the past few winters, though, he hasn’t seen many attractive offers. His $5.3 million salary represents his lowest since 2005, when he was a second-year arbitration player.

Last night the Dodgers knocked around Garland, putting 11 runners on base in five innings and bringing four of them around to score. This tends to happen while on the road, where he has allowed 31 percent of baserunners to score. He has kept up decent peripherals, though — a 7.39 K/9 and 3.54 BB/9, which have helped suppress run scoring a bit. His 3.54 road ERA comes somewhat close to this 4.13 FIP and 4.05 xFIP. It’s at home that Garland becomes a completely different beast.

Garland has allowed plenty of runners to reach base while pitching at Petco, 35 of 104, almost half of which have come via the walk. Yet few of these runners have come around to score, six to be exact, meaning Garland has stranded 82.4 percent of them. Combined with a .224 BABIP and zero home runs allowed, it adds up to a pretty lucky pitcher. He might not be the luckiest man alive, but he’s close.

What strikes me as peculiar is the juxtaposition of Garland’s home BABIP and home strikeout rate. He has struck out just eight of 104 batters faced, which amounts to a 2.88 per nine rate. Garland has never been a strikeout pitcher, just 4.74 per nine in his career, but his 2010 home rate appears a bit extreme. His home walk rate is also ridiculous, 5.76 per nine, which is nearly three per nine more than his career rate of 2.96. That does mean fewer hitters putting the ball in play, but it also means tons of baserunners. But, again, Garland has done an excellent job of preventing them from scoring.

Part of this can be credited to his own approach. Of the 79 hitters who have put the ball in play against Garland at Petco this year, 41 of them have hit it on the ground. Not all of those will turn into outs, but few, if any, will go for extra bases. The groundballs and walks mean that most of the baserunners he allows are moving station to station. Eventually a number of those grounders will turn into outs, some of them double plays, which certainly goes a long way in Garland’s high strand rate. It’s luck in a way, but if he keeps the ball on the ground at this rate he can probably keep his strand rate pretty high.

When taken as a whole, Garland’s 2010 season in some ways resembles his career year in 2005. His overall strand rate, 75.6 percent, is the highest since that season, and his BABIP is the lowest since. Of course, his other peripherals are all out of line. His overall strikeout rate, 5.26 per nine, is about 0.50 above his 2005 mark, while his walk rate, 4.58 per nine, is multiples larger than his 1.91 mark from 2005, and his home run rate is about half. Since all of his numbers are a bit out of line with what we’ve come to expect from Garland in his career, it’s tough to get a real read on what he’s doing this year.

While many of his numbers suggest a steep statistical correction, there are some mitigating factors. The Padres, for their part, play excellent defense (Kyle Blanks in left and Jerry Hairston Jr. at short are their only below-average defenders with more than 100 defensive innings), which helps Garland’s contact tendencies, especially at home. Both FIP and xFIP, 4.25 and 4.75, suggest that he’s been incredibly lucky on balls in play, but part of that is his groundball rate. He also benefits from Petco’s homer-suppressing nature.

There is little chance that Garland ends the year with a 2.38 ERA. A few more balls will find their ways into the seats, and while he’s likely to cut down on the walks, the increase in homers will likely hurt him to a greater degree. The number of groundballs he induces might help his strand rate and BABIP, but it’s still unlikely that they remain at their current levels. Few pitchers, after all, finish the year with a strand rate north of 80 percent and a BABIP at nearly Garland’s level. Even so, he’s setting himself up for a quality season. The Padres are certainly getting their $5.3 million worth.

Looking at the AL standings this morning, only two things struck me as out of place. Seeing the Mariners in last is still a bit of a surprise, but one I’m growing accustomed to. The other, though, is seeing the Red Sox in fourth place. Heading into the season it looked like the AL East might host three of the best five teams in the league, if not the three best overall. Yet the Red Sox sit at .500, 3.5 games behind the third place Blue Jays. That, actually, makes three surprises.

I wasn’t the only person who thought that the Blue Jays would take their lumps this season. Their pitching became far weaker after trading Roy Halladay, and the main pitcher they received in return, Kyle Drabek, likely won’t be ready until next year at the earliest, and even then he’ll likely never reach Halladay’s status. Their offense also looked unimposing. Yet so far this season the Blue Jays have scored 5.17 runs per game, fourth in the AL. Their pitching staff has allowed 4.39 runs per game, a tick better than league average. These performances have propelled them to a 24-17 record, which is exactly in line with their Pythagorean mark.

The strangest aspect of the offensive explosion is where the Jays have received the production. Adam Lind has experienced a power outage, and has a .304 wOBA. Aaron Hill, who hit the DL after just two games, has barely hit since returning. Lyle Overbay, normally a solid contributor, hasn’t been driving the ball and has been largely unproductive. But still, the Blue Jays score. John Buck, Jose Bautista, and Alex Gonzalezhave essentially replaced the production, at least temporarily, that the team expected from Lind, Hill, and Overbay. Add in a Vernon Wells resurgence, and it’s a winning formula in the short-term.

In the long-term, the Jays will need Lind and Hill to start producing, since they can’t expect Buck, Bautista, and Gonzalez to maintain their current paces. Buck in particular has been the product of a hot May, in which he’s already produce a .513 wOBA. In April that was a more reasonable, for him, .320. The Alex Gonzalex honeymoon appears over after a wonderful April, in which he produced 6.4 wRAA on the strength of a .404 wOBA. In May he’s at -1.2 wRAA an a .305 wOBA, which is more reflective of his true talent.

What figures to hurt a lot is the absence of Travis Snider. After a slow start Snider has started to break out, posting a .477 wOBA in May before spraining his right wrist. That means certain playing time for Fred Lewis and Jose Bautista, both of whom are hot. Maybe Bautista is for real, too, as Dave examined earlier this week. It’s tough to say how well Snider will hit upon his return. His lack of experience in the league, combined with the power-sapping potential of a wrist injury, means they can’t expect he’ll continue his breakout. But maybe, as with the rest of the roster, they’ll receive an unexpected contribution from elsewhere. Just last night, for instance, Edwin Encarnacion, who swapped places with Snider on the DL, hit his second home run of the season. If he returns to his 2007 or 2008 production level, the Jays will more easily be able to weather the loss of Snider.

We’re only about a quarter of the way through the season, and plenty figures to change before we see Game 162. The Jays probably won’t stay in third place, as the top three in the AL East all feature better rosters. But given how well they’ve played this year, the Jays are one of the bigger surprises this year. Even when their best and most established hitters have slumped, others have produced in their steads. The first stage of the rebuilding plan, it seems, has gotten off on the right foot.

Prior to and then during the 2010 season, the Mets made a number of questionable calls. It began during the off-season, when the organization did little to address its thin pitching staff, and extended into the season, when manager Jerry Manuel decided to employ Mike Jacobs, who has little use on a major league roster, as his cleanup hitter. In the past few weeks the team has made an effort to correct a number of these errors. We learned of the latest move in the early hours of the morning, when ESPN New York’s Adam Rubin reported that 20-year-old Jenrry Mejia will depart for the minors, where he’ll resume his career as a starting pitcher.

Mejia opened eyes with his performance last season, when he blew through advanced-A ball before striking out more than a batter per inning at AA at age 19. Manuel was so impressed that he personally scouted Mejia during his stint in the Arizona Fall League. Despite Mejia’s poor results — he allowed 20 earned runs in 14.1 innings innings and walked 13 — Manuel came away impressed enough to consider Mejia for his major league bullpen. Debate and speculation abounded during spring training, but by the end Manuel decided to bring Mejia to Queens, where he’d serve as a bullpen weapon.

In terms of performance, Mejia fared well during his 18 appearances. He pitched 17.1 innings, facing 77 batters, striking out 14 and walking 8. A home run or two hurt his overall numbers, though he had three meltdowns while shutting down opponents five times. The problem, though, is that Manuel often called on him in low leverage situations. He pLI was just 0.84, hardly the stuff of a go-to setup man. Even though he did his job well, his impact on the team was limited. The decision to restart his career as a starter, then, makes sense.

His stuff, of course, will need honing. He threw 80.8 percent fastballs in the majors, and cannot lean on that pitch as frequently when starting. He’ll have to continue honing all of his secondary pitches, including his curveball, which he threw 10.1 percent of the time, and his changeup, which he threw 9.1percent. He also has a slider, which he didn’t use in the pen. The Mets will also have to see how his velocity and stuff plays as he stretches out. Pitchers typically add a few miles per hour while in the bullpen, so Mejia will have to survive with a little less zip on his fastball. The inclusion of his secondary pitches should help him adjust, but he’ll have to throw them effectively, which is no guarantee at this stage of his career.

Problems could arise if the Mets believe, as Rubin implies in his lead, that they can recall Mejia in just a few weeks. Long-term this is the correct call, but it also requires patience that the Mets might not have right now. In the majors he might prove ineffective as a starter. He has only 161.1 minor league innings, and probably needs more experience before the Mets can reasonably rely on him in the rotation. In the past 10 years only 18 pitchers have started a game at age 20. Eleven of those posted an ERA+ around or above league average, and even of those three pitched under 100 innings.

Employing a starting pitcher in the bullpen can be an effective teaching method. Earl Weaver broke in his pitchers this way. Instead of receiving feedback every five or six days and then anxiously awaiting atonement for a poor performance, pitchers can gain more frequent feedback in the bullpen. Said feedback can help them make adjustments more rapidly. That method, however, seems like a better idea for a pitcher who has already developed his secondary pitches to a reasonable degree. While the feedback might have helped Mejia’s development, the dormancy of his secondary pitches might have equally hurt it.

As Dave noted in the Mets organizational report, their management hasn’t demonstrated the ability to make sound, long-term decisions. Two straight collapses from the playoffs followed by an injury riddled disaster of the season can have that effect on a club, especially one as prolific as the Mets. There comes a point when management will make short-term moves in order to stay in place. Recalling Mejia this season would appear to be one of those decisions. The best thing for the long-term health of the organization might be for Mejia to take his lumps in the minors. That might be the only way he can buy enough time to more fully develop his repertoire and become a top of the rotation weapon for the Mets in the future.

We are still at the point in the season where a single series can change a team’s outlook. No series exemplified this better than the Nationals and the Rockies this weekend. When it began Washington was 19-15, tied atop the NL Wild Card Standings. The Rockies, in typical early season fashion, sat below .500, 16-17, though just 2.5 games out of the Wild Card race.

A Nationals win in the opener on Thursday placed them in the Wild Card lead alone and put the Rockies 3.5 games out. That 3.5 games might be a bit misleading, because it’s difficult for any team to create real separation at this point. Houston, owner of the NL’s worst record, was just 6.5 games out heading into play on Friday. In just two days, however, the scene changed a bit.

After a rainout on Friday the they played two on Saturday, and the Rockies pounced. Only the Nats’ best hitters, Ryan Zimmerman and Adam Dunn, could put across anything against Ubaldo Jimenez, who made life easy for the Rockies offense.Livan Hernandez has impressed to this point, but even the three runs he surrendered were too many. Add in a Brian Bruney meltdown and it’s an easy Rockies win. In the nightcap the Rockies rode the return of Jason Hammel, who allowed just three runs and struck out seven in seven innings, to a 4-3 victory.

On Sunday the Rockies got another return, this time from Jeff Francis. He captured headlines this morning after a seven-inning, one-run performance that included six strikeouts. Scott Olsen went toe-to-toe with him, allowing just one run in 6.2 IP, but Tyler Clippard, while preventing two inherited runners from scoring, couldn’t keep the Rockies off the board in the eighth. Manny Corpas prevented the him from Clipping another win.

The Wild Card standings, of course, look a bit different this morning. San Francisco sits alone atop them, while Washington sits two games out. Colorado, now above .500, is just a half game behind them. Again, this is not surprising at this point in the season. A mild winning or losing streak can change a team’s outlook. Still, it appears as though Washington and Colorado are two teams headed in opposite directions.

Nationals: A realistic chance, or playing over their heads?

The Nationals certainly impressed with their 13-10 April record. After a season in which they held the league’s worst record and an off-season in which they made few roster upgrades, I’m not sure anyone could have expected such a performance from them. A few unexpected performances — particularly those by Ivan Rodriguez and Livan Hernandez — helped the team perform above their true talent level.

As Steven at Fire Jim Bowden noted on May 1, plenty of bad teams have posted winning records in April. We needn’t look further than last season to see the Pirates, who finished at 62-99, and the Royals, who finished at 65-97, with April records above .500. The Nationals could certainly fall into this group, as their 100 runs scored against 108 runs against suggests a decent stream of luck in the first month. But will they be 90-loss bad?

That could depend on how they deploy their reinforcements. They’ve already taken a step by removing Bruney from the bullpen and replacing him with Drew Storen. While Storen’s overall impact won’t be overwhelming — he might throw 50 innings out of the bullpen the rest of the way — his presence should help the Nats avoid the late inning meltdowns to which Bruney was prone. With Clippard, Matt Capps, Sean Burnett, and now Storen in the pen, the Nats figure to blow fewer games in the later innings. They could benefit even further if Tyler Walker cuts down on the home runs.

They will also call on Stephen Strasburg within the next few weeks. While it’s not likely that he dominates out of the gate, he’ll still represent an improvement in the rotation. Only one Nats starter, Scott Olsen, strikes out opposing hitters at an acceptable rate, so adding Strasburg’s strikeout stuff will only help. Add to that the possible return and the possible effectiveness of Chien-Ming Wang, and maybe the Nats have something going.

In May the Nats have won seven and lost eight. Even if they keep that pace throughout the season, they still have those 13 April wins. That means a 78-win season, which has to be considered a victory at this point. That’s the upside. The downside is that each day we’re likely to see them slipping down the Wild Card standings. A surprise run isn’t out of the question, of course, but given the team’s current run differential I wouldn’t think it likely.

Rockies: Why are they so bad in April?

During the past four seasons, the Rockies have played horribly in April, a 40-57 record. Yet in two of those seasons they made the playoffs, and still have a good chance to make that three this season. Again, they just boosted themselves over the .500 hump, and if past seasons are any indication they should be just fine going forward. That’s not just because of past results, but also because of where the team currently stands.

The return of Jeff Francis stands to upgrade the Rockies’ rotation, as will the eventual return of Jorge De La Rosa. One the whole pitching hasn’t been a problem, as the Rockies have allowed the fifth fewest runs per game in the NL. Adding Francis and De La Rosa to the rotation, however, should help them prevent opponents from putting up crooked numbers, as they have a few times this season. That should help them produce a record more in line with their run differential. The return of Huston Street, eventually, should greatly help the bullpen, which has seemingly performed above its head so far this season.

With improved pitching and a solid offense, the Rockies appear to be headed up in the standings. With a questionable pitching staff the Nats appear headed down. Will mid-season adjustments and reinforcements from the minors change either of their outlooks? I guess only time will…ah, forget it.

On MLB Trade Rumors today, Howard Megdal looks at possible destinations for Andruw Jones. Signed for jut $500K this winter, Jones has easily been the best free agent bargain. He leads all AL outfielders with a .427 wOBA, and has already produced over 1 WAR. If, as Megdal suggests, the White Sox will seek to cash in their Jones pick for some prospects, they might want to act quickly. We’ve seen this type of production from Andruw before, only to see it decline later in the season.

Although he produced above-average numbers in a general sense, Jones was a disappointment for Texas last season. No, a .338 wOBA isn’t bad, at least for most players. Jones, however, spent most of his time at DH. In only 17 games and 148.2 innings did he play the outfield. He has already topped those marks this year, which makes his production seem even better. The season is still young, though, and Jones has just 111 PA. There is still time for his production to fall.

Why so pessimistic? Because at this exact point last season, 111 PA, Andruw’s production ceased. For those first 111 PA he hit .278/.405/.544, which amounts to a wOBA, .424, that is nearly identical to his mark this year. Yet from his 112th PA through his 331st, he produced very little. His triple slash sat at .183/.282/.419, a .320 wOBA. His only saving grace was power, as he hit 12 home runs and produced a .236 ISO during that span. Other than that, though, he showed few redeeming qualities.

While we can’t say for certain that Andruw’s production for the rest of the season will mimic his efforts from last year, it’s also probably not a good idea to place any bets on it. He’s surely talented, as he showed during his years, minus 2007, with Atlanta. Even though he’s been in the league 15 seasons, he’s still just 33 years old. He could certainly continue producing throughout 2010, whether it be for the White Sox or a contending team.

Yet even if he avoids the drop-off he experienced last year, there’s almost no chance he continues at his current pace. Even during his prime years he never produced a .400 wOBA. His peak year came in 2000, when he produced a .390 mark. He came close, too, in 2005, when he hit 51 home runs and produced a .382 wOBA. He might be able to help a contending team, but it won’t be with the numbers he’s producing now.

The Rangers crushed the Athletics last night, 10-1, to break a tie atop the AL West. We’re just 20 percent through the season, and plenty can change as the weather gets warmer. The Angels probably won’t play .417 ball for the rest of the season, just like the Mariners, despite a shaky offense, probably won’t finish the season 64-98. Their slow starts have set them back considerably, though. That becomes magnified when we look at the Rangers, a team that has done an excellent job of making minor adjustments.

Catcher

The Rangers planned to start the season with Taylor Teagarden and Jarrod Saltalamacchia splitting time behind the plate, but an early injury to Salty, among other issues, have kept him at AAA so far. He’s killing it there, and we’ll get to him in a moment. That opened an opportunity for Teagarden, but he did not seize it. Even though his major league season has consisted of just 33 PA, it was clear during that time that something just isn’t working. Teagarden recorded just one hit and four walks in that span while striking out 17 times. He was demoted to AAA, where he, no joke, has a .205 OPS. He hasn’t played since Saturday, and was recently sent to AA so he can get actual playing time.

The Rangers have responded by introducing a new catching tandem, Matt Treanor and Max Ramirez. Treanor is no great shakes, a 34-year-old who found himself as the best among poor options. His .278 wOBA would look bad under most circumstances, but considering the numbers Teagarden posted the Rangers will take it at this point. Ramirez represents the more intriguing option, though he has only played in five games since his recall in late April. Marc Hulet ranked him the 10th best Rangers prospect, a high accolade given the strength of their system. He’s gotten on base in half of his 16 PA, and while that’s clearly not sustainable it is a nice break from the disappointing performances Texas has received from its other catching prospects.

While the makeshift tandem Texas has employed during the next few weeks represents a quality adjustment to early season letdowns, they have some more work to do here. Their catchers currently rank 11th in the AL with a .271 wOBA. Saltalamacchia factors prominently into the Rangers’ catching future. He’s destroying AAA, but as Joey from Baseball Time in Arlington notes, he’s still having trouble throwing the ball…back to the pitcher. His .343/.400/.552 line makes him a prime candidate for promotion, but if he’s pulling a Rube Baker behind the plate, well, let’s just say I’m not sure a Frederick’s of Hollywood catalog will necessarily get him back on track.

First base

Chris Davis has shown plenty of promise. Since his professional debut in 2006 he has forced a promotion at every level. He has never posted a wOBA of below .383 at any minor league level, and in 2008 so consummately dominated AA and AAA that the Rangers had little choice but to promote him. In 317 major league PA that year he posted a .371 wOBA thanks to a hefty .264 ISO, though a lot had to do with his .351 BABIP, a rate he probably couldn’t sustain in the majors.

Since then, though, his strikeouts have become an issue. He struck out in 29.8 percent of his 2008 PA, but saw that number skyrocket to 38.4 percent last year. In his 53 PA this season he has struck out 35.4 percent of the time. Those numbers would look a lot better if his wOBA crossed even the .320 mark, but it did not. After an 0 for 3 with two strikeout performance on April 22, the Rangers swapped him for highly regarded prospect Justin Smoak.

Despite a poor batting average, just .194, Smoak has outproduced Davis so far. His walk rate sits at an encouraging 16 percent, and seven of his 12 hits have gone for extra bases. His line drive rate, 25 percent, doesn’t quite match up with his .167 BABIP, and I’m sure we’ll see a correction on that front soon enough. It won’t be long, I don’t think, until the Rangers seek trade partners for Davis.

Starting pitcher

In some ways, the Rangers got a bit lucky. Surely they signed Colby Lewis with the expectation that he’d be a solid middle of the rotation arm, but so far he’s pitched like someone heading a staff. His 3.15 ERA matches up well with his 3.33 FIP and 3.71 xFIP. C.J. Wilson has been even more impressive, a 1.51 ERA with a 3.13 FIP. He’s allowed no home runs so far, but there’s a reason for that. Opposing hitters have put more than half of their balls in play on the ground.

With Rich Harden rounding into form during his last few starts, the Rangers have just a couple of rotation disappointments. First is Scott Feldman, who remains in the rotation. A few more walks, a few more homers, and a few more fly balls have been the biggest difference between his 2009 campaign and the opening to the 2010 season. Both his FIP and xFIP sit below his ERA, so maybe he’ll come around. But I doubt he’ll be much more than a fourth starter. Which is fine for a staff with the Rangers potential.

The other disappointment comes from Matt Harrison, who recently hit the DL. His 5.29 ERA matches up decently with his 5.59 FIP, though sits a bit above his 4.82 xFIP. His absence might cost him a rotation spot, as the Rangers have replaced him with Derek Holland. After a rough initial run through the majors last season, Holland simply dominated AAA in his six starts. He was the obvious replacement for Harrison and answered the bell, pitching six shutout innings last night, striking out seven (to one walk) and inducing eight ground balls. If Holland is poised to fulfill his potential this year, the Rangers will have quite a formidable staff.

Bullpen

The Rangers currently boast one of the better bullpens in the league, so there hasn’t been too large a need for an adjustment. They took care of one early, though, in demoting Frank Francisco from the closer role in favor of Neftali Feliz. Feliz hasn’t been perfect in the role, but Francisco suffered quite a few meltdowns earlier in the year. The change, as we predicted on FanGraphs Audio, happened fairly early. It appears to have been the right one, the question of Feliz as a starter or reliever notwithstanding.

Continued adjustments?

The Rangers have done a good job of quickly addressing problem areas. In a way, the players forced the issue. Teagarden and Davis hit so poorly that the Rangers had little choice but to demote them. Holland likely wouldn’t have seen the majors just yet if not for Harrison’s injury, though a few more poor starts might caused the Rangers to act.

Right now, things seem to be going well enough. Since they snapped a six-game losing streak they’re 14-6 and have outscored opponents 105-82. They could still use better production out of the catcher spot, which could come from Saltalamacchia once he works out his throwing issues. With the makings of a strong rotation, solid bullpen, and an above average lineup the Rangers could start to run away with the AL West. If they do, it will largely because of the on the fly adjustments they’ve made early in the season.

Last night, for only the seventh time in his major league career, Daisuke Matsuzaka didn’t walk a batter. During his four years in the majors he has developed a reputation for wildness, which came as a surprise. In Japan, where he played for the Seibu Lions, he demonstrated quality control. From 2002 through his final season in 2006 he kept his walk rate below three per nine. In fact, in 2006 he walked just 34 batters in 186.1 innings. Once he reached the majors, though, that rate started to rise.

In 2008 he developed a reputation as a wild pitcher who could work out of jams. He walked 5.05 batters per nine innings, a mark that ranked second highest in the majors. Despite all those base runners, though, Matsuzaka finished the year with a 2.90 ERA and an 18-3 record. A number of factors aided this phenomenon, and few of them appeared to be sustainable feats.

What stands out most, and what plays most into his reputation for working out of jams, is an 80.6 percent strand rate. His expected LOB%, based on xFIP, was about 10 percentage points lower. Speaking of xFIP, it sat at nearly two runs higher than his ERA. This was due not only to the high walk total, but also because only 6.1 percent of his flyballs allowed left the park. That’s a considerable feat for someone who allows 43 percent fly balls.

Matsuzaka’s numbers with runners on base helped, too, as did his performances in high leverage situations. With the bases empty he walked 5.55 per nine, but once a runner reached base that dropped to 4.52 per nine. More helpfully, he induced more poor contact, holding opponents to 5.84 hits per nine. With the bases empty that figure was 7.84 per nine. The 40 batters he faced in high leverage situations didn’t find much success, hitting just .152/.300/.212, striking out 11 times.

It’s tough to gauge exactly how lucky Matsuzaka got in 2008, because he has spent most of his time since 2008 on the disabled list. After pitching just 59.1 innings last season he has only 17 this season after missing most of April. We’ve seen his LOB% come back to the mid-70s, and we’ve seen his home run rate more than correct itself, but how much of this was due to him pitching hurt, and how much was due to a statistical correction? I’m not sure anyone can really say.

Last night, though, Matsuzaka pitched perhaps his best game in the majors (though I’d vote for this one). He completed seven innings, allowing just three hits and one run. Even more impressively, he struck out nine and walked none. More than two-thirds of his 106 pitches were strikes. The only time he even remotely ran into trouble was in the sixth, when a double, wild pitch, and double allowed the Blue Jays to score their only run of the game. By that point, though, the Red Sox offense already had the game well at hand.

What impressed the most was how effectively he used his fastball. He threw the four-seamer 68 times, far more than he normally does, but generated seven swings and misses. He doesn’t have an overpowering fastball, but he has decent movement on it and, at least last night, threw it for strikes. His two other fastballs, a cutter and a two-seamer, help, as does the changeup he has worked in more frequently this season.

What I’m not sure of is whether this signals progress for Matsuzaka, or if it’s a tease. On the progress end, he corrected the one aspect that has hampered him more than any other during his major league career, his walk rate. On the tease end, he’s done this before only to later revert to his wild ways. Now that he’s healthy we should get a good look at him this season. Surprisingly, he has only two more left in Boston after this. It feels like he just went there.

There are few, if any, conclusions we can draw based on a player’s first 50 major league plate appearances. In that sample, which covers 12 or 13 games, anything can happen. A player might hit with an inordinate number of men on base. He might face a string of weak pitchers. He might play two series against the Royals. Yet, after watching a handful of Brennan Boesch’s 50 major league PA, including all four last night, I’m convinced of one thing. The man does not think it is his duty to take pitches.

The Tigers drafted Boesch with the 82nd pick of the 2006 draft. He had impressed at the University of California as a sophomore, hitting .355/.436/.567. His production dipped a bit in his junior year, but his star was still bright enough to warrant a third round selection. The Tigers signed him and them placed him in the New York-Penn League, where he hit .291/.344/.435 in 292 PA. He struggled through the next two seasons before finding his power strike at AA in 2009, slugging over .500 for the first time as a professional.

Something had changed for Boesch when he turned pro. In college he drew 53 walks in 574 PA, a 9.2% walk rate. That dropped immediately upon his pro debut. In 317 PA — more than he had accumulated during any of his college seasons — he walked 6.6 percent of the time. That number dropped even further during his first full season, to 4.2 percent. For his minor league career he walked 117 times in 1957 PA, 6 percent.

That hasn’t changed in the majors, where he’s walked just twice in his 50 PA, one of them intentional. So far Boesch has swung at 50 percent of pitches outside the strike zone. That is nearly double the league average rate. He swings at plenty of pitches in general, 66.2 percent, more than 20 percentage points above league average. It’s no wonder, then, that his swinging strike rate also ranks above league average.

Yet that hasn’t been all bad for Boesch so far. He has struck out only six times in those 50 PA, which amounts to a below average strikeout rate. Low strikeout and walk rates mean he’s putting the ball in play often. To his advantage, 35 percent of his balls in play have dropped for hits, which has propped up his .340 BA. Last year at AA Boesch hit .275, but had an insane BABIP of .390. He struck out a ton, though, 127 times in 527 AB, a 24.1 percent rate.

I’m not sure what to make of all this. It is, after all, just 50 PA, and only two of those have come against left-handed pitching (another peril of short samples). It is clear, though, that Boesch wants to swing the bat. He won’t find much success if he continues chasing so many pitches out of the zone, but as he settles into the league that rate should drop significantly. From the little I’ve seen of him, he seems like the kind of player who can survive on contact skills alone.

A glance at Nationals reliever Tyler Clippard’s numbers will certainly impress. He has appeared in 16 games and has thrown 23.2 innings, allowing just two runs during that span. It looks like the low run totals might be more than flukey. Though his BABIP sits at an unsustainably low .220, he has his share of strikeouts, 29, so perhaps he can continue pitching well out of the bullpen even when more batted balls drop in for hits. Yet there’s something deceptive about Clippard’s numbers.

A 0.76 ERA suggests that Clippard has done his job preventing runs, but that’s not exactly the case. While he has allowed only two runs of his own — a triple and sac fly in one case, a homer in the other — he has done a poor job of preventing inherited runners from scoring. In fact, pitchers must hate it when Jim Riggleman lifts them in favor of Clippard when there are men on base. He has allowed 56 percent of his inherited runners to score so far.

In his last three games, in fact, he has allowed at least one inherited runner to score. His record in those games: 3-0. Clippard actually leads the NL in wins, which seems odd, even at this point in the season, from a reliever. Four of those, however, have come after he has blown a lead. You can’t pitch your way into a save situation, but with a little help from your offense you can easily pitch yourself into a win.

Other than striking out plenty of hitters, Clippard does something else well. He does not allow the runners he himself puts on base to score. His strand rate is a ridiculous 97.6 percent, which is third in the NL among pitchers with at least 20 IP. The highest strand rate for any NL pitcher with more than 70 IP last season was 85.2 percent. He has also kept the ball in the park this season despite allowing a 55 percent fly ball rate. While flukes in this regard happen, it’s unlikely that he’ll sustain his 3.6% HR/FB ratio.

The new Meltdown/Shutdown system does favor Clippard, crediting him with 10 shutdowns to just one meltdown. This, however, can be misleading. The statistic depends on WPA. There have been situations this year where Clippard has blown the lead, has had his offense retake it, and then has come out to pitch the next inning. That’s going to reduce his number of meltdowns, because recording outs in later innings, in which he has the lead, will help improve his WPA.

Clippard does have a few things going for him. His FIP is excellent at 2.96 and his xFIP is even decent at 4.03. That shows that he’s a bit lucky on the home runs, but even so he’d still be an effective reliever. His high strikeout rate, too, bodes well for the rest of his season. There are enough warning signs, though, from his high walk rate to his penchant for allowing inherited runners to score to his unsustainable ability to leave men stranded, that suggest that he might soon sport a stat line that more resembles his peripheral performance.