Francisco Rodriguez attracted the media’s attention after the Mets’ 2-1 victory over the Cardinals on Saturday. After his team had taken the lead in the top of the 19th Rodriguez came on to save the game, but failed. Later, he explained that he had been up and throwing during every inning from the eighth through the 18th, resulting in roughly 100 warm-up pitches. This brought much criticism upon manager Jerry Manuel, as it should have. Yet Manuel wasn’t the only manager in the game who might have abused one of his players.

Catchers have a rougher go than most position players. While a third baseman or left fielder might handle a number of plays per game, this does not compare to the catcher, who is involved in every exchange between pitcher and batter. Not only that, but he does it from a squatting position. This can be hell on the knees. It’s no wonder, really, why catchers tend to decline at a younger age than other position players. They suffer more physical abuse. This can become a tough situation in an extra-innings game. Despite his abuse of Rodriguez, Manuel showed clemency with his starting catcher, Rod Barajas, for whom he pinch-ran, using pitcher John Maine, in the 13th inning.

The same cannot be said for Cardinals’ skipper Tony LaRussa. His team possesses an advantage at catcher, as Yadier Molina ranks among the league’s finest. Why, then, would LaRussa push that advantage to the point where he might no longer be one? I’m referring to Molina’s 20 defensive innings from Saturday. That cannot be healthy for a catcher. Molina squatted for the equivalent of extra-inning doubleheaders, without the benefit of a rest between games. Yet it’s not just LaRussa’s use of Molina in that single game that causes concern. It extends to his usage all season long.

The Cardinals have now played in 12 games, and Molina has started 11 of them. These run from April 5th through the 18th, 14 days. In other words, from Opening Day through last night Molina has had three days off while squatting for 11. That amounts to 106 total innings behind the plate, more than nine per game. Even worse, if we take it over the 14 days of the season it averages to almost 7.2 innings per day. That seems like quite a lot for any catcher, even one in the prime of his career.

Perhaps the 20-inning stint wouldn’t have been as bad if LaRussa had given Molina a day off surrounding it. Alas, that was not the case. He caught Friday night’s game, spending nine innings behind the plate. Saturday’s affair was a late afternoon game, but a day game after a night game nonetheless. Then, as if the extra couple of hours made a difference, LaRussa ran out Molina again on Sunday night. Does it come as any surprise that he went 0 for 4?

Molina has not had a day off since April 13, an off-day for the team. Since then he has caught 56 innings in five days. The Cardinals travel to Arizona for a three-game set starting this evening. Because Arizona doesn’t observe Daylight Savings Time, this amounts to a two-timezone jump. Would LaRussa dare start Molina again tonight?

Before the season started few people believed that the Indians stood any real chance of contending. Over the past few seasons they had traded away many of their top players, most notably Cliff Lee and Victor Martinez, both of whom would have been under contract with the team for 2010. The have a few bright spots, but they’re mostly a team in transition. While they haven’t changed many peoples’ minds with a 3-6 start, they have seen some notable performances.

David Huff ran into plenty of problems during his first tour of the majors in 2009. Though expectations weren’t too high for him — Baseball America pegged his ceiling as a No. 3 or 4 starter — he failed to deliver. As projected his strikeout rate ranked in the bottom third of the league, and while his walk rate was generally good, at 2.9 per nine innings, it wasn’t quite at the level he attained in the minors. His greatest strength is his control, so it’s no wonder that when it wasn’t at its best he got hit around a bit.

As Marc noted in his review of the 2009 Indians, Huff did show some positives despite a generally disappointing season. His slider, which he developed into a quality third pitch in 2008, ranked well according to pitch-type linear weights. That pitch, combined with his above-average changeup, would help compensate for his 87-92 mph fastball. With a thin pitching staff it wouldn’t take much for Huff to get another shot in 2010. So far he has used both his changeup and his slider well in his first two starts.

Huff’s first start of the season came against Detroit, which features a lineup heavy with righties. In fact, the only left-handed bat he would face was Johnny Damon. While PitchFX missed a few of his pitches, we still got a good idea of his breakdown. His fastball acted as his primary weapon, as he threw the four-seamer 60 times and the two-seamer another nine times. The two-seamer can be handy because it tends to break away from righties. In terms of secondary pitches he threw 19 changeups and seven sliders. Three of those seven sliders he threw to Damon, while another three went to Miguel Cabrera. Scott Sizemore saw the only other one of the night, which he flied to right.

The results were mostly good for Huff that game, as he allowed just one earned run. The Tigers did score four off him, though, and while three scored on a Jhonny Peralta throwing error, Huff did allow four singles in the inning. The runners advanced only one base on each, though, and with two outs and the bases loaded Huff did induce a grounder. It appeared he had escaped trouble — until the Perlata throw, and Andy Marte’s lack of a scoop, that is.

Last night Huff faced another righty-heavy lineup, though the Rangers do feature a few lefties in David Murphy and Josh Hamilton. This time he used the slider more often, throwing it 21 times while using the change just 15 times. Of those 21 sliders, 14 of them went to Hamilton and Murphy. He used mostly fastball-changeup on the rest of the lineup, all of whom hit right handed in the game. It was clearly an effective use of his repertoire, as he allowed just four hits and walked just one during a 104-pitch complete game.

The only blemish on Huff’s night actually came as a result of his fastball. Again, his fastball has been rated average, at best, and probably below average, by scouts and prospect mavens. Yet he used the pitch exclusively to the first two batters in the fourth. Elvis Andrus singled to left on the fourth fastball he saw, a 92 mph pitch that hit the inside edge. There was something of a pattern in this AB, as Huff went outside-inside-outside-inside. The next hitter, Michael Young, did the damage, as he took a second-pitch fastball, which Huff threw right down the pike, over the right field wall. Feed Young a good fastball and he’ll do that.

Thankfully for Huff, it was his only mistake of the afternoon. In fact, he went back to the fastball just once for the rest of the inning, using his slider and changeup to retire Hamilton, Vladimir Guerrero, and Nelson Cruz. He even used sliders in both of his offerings to Guerrero. The game was efficient in general, as the two teams barely cleared the two-hour mark. Joe West would be proud.

Clearly we can’t expect this of Huff every time out. He’s going to get rocked one of these days, and it will probably happen more than once. Cleveland fans have to like what they’ve seen so far. Huff might not be one of their more exciting pitching prospects, but he represents the possibility for a solid No. 3, a reliable arm in the middle of the rotation. If he continues to mix his pitches well and pick his spots with the slider he could go on to post a very good 2010 season.

It appeared that 2009 was something of a turnaround for Reds RHP Homer Bailey. The No. 5 overall prospect in 2007, Bailey struggled during his first two major league stints. His minor league walk rate, 3.8 per nine innings, suggested he might hand out a few too many free passes in the majors, at least in the early goings, so it didn’t come as much of a surprise when he did. His stuff and his minor league numbers, however, suggested that he might be a bit more proficient with the strikeout. His rates dropped considerably upon promotion, though, just 5.1 per nine in 2007 and 2008.

The Reds exercised patience with Bailey in 2009, keeping him on the major league roster despite his poor performances. After a poor start on August 18 against San Francisco his ERA peaked at 7.53. In 55 innings he had walked 28 to just 33 strikeouts. He had also surrendered 10 home runs, which certainly helped inflate his ERA. From that point on, though, Bailey showed marked improvement, at least in the results. In 58.1 innings to finish the season he allowed just 11 runs. Even better, he walked 24 to 53 strikeouts and allowed just two home runs.

On the negative end, September results can mislead. Teams expand their rosters, so there are many more young, inexperienced players getting into games. Plenty of teams have little to play for at that point, too, and will likely give their youngsters a longer look. This is especially true of a team like the Pirates, again whom Bailey logged 25.1 innings. He did face three playoff teams, the Dodgers, Cardinals, and Rockies, so there were at least some positives to take from the experience. It also boded a bit well that he allowed just two runs over 20.2 innings against them.

In his first two starts of 2010, though, Bailey has looked a lot more like he did in 2008 than he did in 2009. Over just 10.1 innings he has thrown 221 pitches and has allowed 21 batters to reach base. That includes two home runs, both of which came in his start last night against the Marlins. Through 5.1 innings he threw 115 pitches, walking four and allowing 12 baserunners. Only one of those walked batters came back to haunt him, though he can’t expect to be that lucky in the future. The two home runs also came with no one on base. Again, we can’t expect that to continue if he allows more than two baserunners per inning.

The two home runs, to Brett Carroll and Jorge Cantu, both came on high and inside pitches that didn’t get quite inside enough. Both came on fastball varieties, a four-seamer to Carroll and a splitter to Cantu. The velocity on each appears a bit down from last year, when Bailey averaged 94.5 mph on his fastball and 88.5 mph on the splitter. So far this year that’s down to 92.7 and 86.8. We’re dealing with small samples so far this year, and there’s a good chance that there are inaccuracies in these readings. Bailey’s secondary pitches, however, clock at almost exactly the same speeds they did last year. So while we can’t draw much from this now, it’s certainly something to examine as we get a bit larger sampling on Bailey this season.

(Then again, while the BIS data has only his fastball and splitter down, PitchFX has his curveball down as well, and his slider up. It gives me confidence that things will even out over a few more starts.)

While Bailey still has the potential to turn into a fine major league pitcher, he still has plenty to improve on before he can reach it. His strikeout rate isn’t nearly high enough to support walking a batter every other inning. His home run tendencies have continued to plague him, and while he was at a reasonable level last year I’m not sure we can peg him for a recovery this year. He pitched pretty horribly during the first half of his major league stint, and his dominance in his second half came either against teams comfortably in the playoffs, or else the Pirates.

The Reds field a quality defense, with above-average players at most positions on most days. Bailey’s problems, however, stem from issues that his defense can’t solve. Chris Dickerson can’t catch a ball popped over the teal monster. Scott Rolen can’t make a fancy play on a walk. In other words, the impetus to improve is all on Bailey himself. He’s yet to prove he can do it against major league rosters from April through August. While he’ll continue to get chances in 2010, he’s off to a pretty bad start. Unfortunately for him, he’ll miss Pittsburgh this time around. His next chance to show improvement comes against the Dodgers next week.

During his years in Philadelphia, Bobby Abreu was a monster offensive player. From the time he became a full-time player, in 1998, until 2005 he posted a wOBA of .380 or better. His walk rate, normally in the 15 percent range, consistently ranked near the top of the league. He even had some power in those days, with an ISO that peaked at .253 in 2001. Phillies fans might not have fully appreciated him, but he was not only one of the best players on the team, but also one of the best hitters in the league during his prime.

In 2006, though, the Phillies gave up on Abreu. They fell out of contention and had a number of big contracts on the books. As they shopped Abreu they insisted that any potential move would not be a salary dump. Then, just before the trade deadline, they traded him, along with Cory Lidle, to the Yankees for an underperforming former first-round pick and three other marginal players (though one, Jesus Sanchez, has converted to pitching and is taking well to his new role). Abreu hit well in his new uniform, though his power strike, which had been declining since 2004, picked up only slightly at Yankee Stadium.

In 2007, however, it appeared that Abreu was no longer the player that the Phillies signed to a five-year, $64 million contract. His walk rate dropped considerably, to 12 percent. That represented his lowest walk rate since 1997, when he was still with the Astros. He still hadn’t rediscovered his power swing, despite the short porch in right field at Yankee Stadium, posting a .162 ISO, nearly identical to his 2006 mark.

In 2008 Abreu’s power recovered a bit. He slugged .471 with an ISO of .176. That’s only slightly higher than his ISOs from the past two seasons, but an improvement nonetheless. In terms of patience, Abreu’s bread and butter during his previous 10 full-time seasons, fell even further. His walk rate hit 10.7 percent. Then, in 2009, after heading west to Anaheim, his walk rate recovered a bit, to 14.1 percent, which, while not quite the 18.1 percent rate he posted in 2006, was still an improvement over the previous two years. Yet his ISO fell again, this time to .142, his lowest mark since, again, 1997.

We can’t glean much from this three-year trend, where Abreu’s ISO rose then fell while his walk rate fell then rose. It’s not worth much at this point, considering he’s played in only eight games, but Abreu’s ISO on the young season is .235 while his walk rate is just 2.9 percent. Clearly, those numbers will change as the season progresses. It will be interesting, though, to see where Abreu ends up this season. Will he hit for more power at the sacrifice of his walk rate? Or will his power drop to its 2009 level while his walk rate picks up a bit? I doubt we’ll see either increase over the past few seasons, but a player like Abreu might be able to draw walks in 14.1 percent of his plate appearances while slugging somewhere around .450. That, I think, would make the Angels feel good about handing him that new contract in November.

We would look rather foolish if we drew conclusions based on the season’s first week. Anything can happen in the span of six games, which is why they play baseball for 162 games spanning six months. The first few weeks, even the first couple of months, centers on stories. A story doesn’t have to carry long-term implications. It just has to be entertaining. The opening week of 2010, thankfully, left us with no shortage of baseball stories.

Heading into the season, the Blue Jays were considered among the worst teams in the league. During the Opening Day chat, a number of panelists agreed that they were the team most likely to lose 100 games. Which, I suppose, means that they project as the league’s worst team. New GM Alex Anthopoulos apparently has a plan to rebuild the squad, but that takes time. It also oftentimes involves hitting the cellar for a year or two and collecting the accompanying draft picks. Yet the Blue Jays have started the season hot, finishing the first week with a 5-1 record, tied with Philadelphia, Detroit, and San Francisco for tops in the majors.

Does this mean that the Blue Jays figure to shock us this year, becoming the scrappy underdogs in the powerhouse AL East? Hardly. In fact, we’ve seen this type of play from the Blue Jays recently — as in, just last year. Through their first six games of 2009 they also finished 5-1, ending the week ahead of the Yankees, Red Sox, and Rays in the standings. Even Baltimore finished the week near the division’s attic, going 4-1, including two wins in the opening series against the Yankees. While the Orioles fell quickly, though, the Jays continued their hot play for quite some time.

After completing a four-game sweep of the White Sox on May 18, the Jays had played 41 games and held a 3.5 game lead in the AL East. To finish the first week at 5-1 is one thing, but to maintain a lead over the Yanks, Sox, and Rays through 41 games is quite another. Might this team have been for real? They made a compelling case to that point, but again, this is why the baseball season lasts 162 games. In fact, if the season lasted just 62 the Jays would have finished third place in the AL East.

May 18 represented a high point for the Jays. Immediately after they finished that sweep of the White Sox they collapsed. It started with a three-game sweep by Boston. Then Atlanta swept them. Then they traveled to play Baltimore, a team they had swept earlier in the month, hoping to rediscover their winning ways. It did not happen there, as the Orioles also swept them. That’s nine days, nine games, nine losses. The Jays hung around for another couple of weeks, but a four-game losing streak in June put them five games out, and even a sweep of the Phillies couldn’t bring them out of the hole. By the All-Star break they found themselves 11 games out. The only story left for them was the fate of Roy Halladay.

The Jays could have another story brewing this year. Their only loss of the season came on Opening Day, when Shaun Marcum, who missed all of 2008 while recovering from Tommy John surgery, took a no-hitter into the seventh. The bullpen blew that game, but the Jays recovered to take the next five contests. In two straight games they mounted ninth-inning come backs, thwarting since-deposed Texas closer Frank Francisco and then struggling Orioles closer Mike Gonzalez. They followed that up with two convincing wins, putting them atop the AL East as they head back to Toronto for their home opener later tonight.

It is difficult, if not impossible, to imagine a situation where the Jays continue their early season surge. Vernon Wells will not keep his wOBA anywhere near .576, even if he does produce a bounce-back season. Alex Gonzalez will certainly fall hard from his .538 first-week wOBA. Dana Eveland will not provide 7.1 innings of shutout ball every time out — and there’s a good chance he won’t do that even one more time this season. Jason Frasor and Kevin Gregg will certainly blow saves. This isn’t to rain on the Blue Jays parade, but is simply a matter of fact. They might get some surprise performances that last all season, but certainly will not get enough to overcome the competition in the AL East.

That’s fine for the Blue Jays. It’s part of the plan for long-term success. I don’t think any of their fans expected them to finish higher than fourth in the East, and the majority, I would think, pegged them as the cellar. That might well come true. After all, in 2005 the Orioles led the AL East through May but finished the season 74-88. That doesn’t mean, however, that we should ignore the story they’re producing right now. Vernon Wells is surging. The pitching staff has handled itself well. Some role players have contributed. While we’ll be telling a different story next month, for now it’s the Jays’ time to bask in the spotlight.

After the 2006 season the Blue Jays found themselves in a difficult position. They had finished the season at 87-75, only the second time in the previous six years that they had finished with a winning record. They also finished second in the AL East, the first time they’d finished above third since their back-to-back World Series wins in 1992 and 93. At least for the moment things looked optimistic.

Yet J.P. Ricciardi knew what lay in the team’s future. The Red Sox would surely reload for the 2007 season, making it difficult for the Jays to contend. Still, they had a roster full of promise. On the offensive side, perhaps no player was of more value to the team than Vernon Wells. He led the 2006 Blue Jays in wOBA while playing center field, no small feat for a team that scored five runs per game. Yet he might not have been a Blue Jay for much longer.

With over five years’ service time under his belt after the 06 season, Wells was eligible for free agency after the 2007 season. Even though he remained under contract for one more season, rumors already began to swirl that the Rangers would pursue him aggressively. It was further thought that Wells, an Arlington native, would jump on the opportunity to play in front of his hometown crowd. That would have been a disaster for the Blue Jays franchise.

Knowing what was at stake, Ricciardi signed Wells to a seven-year, $126 million contract extension. Since Wells was under contract for the 2007 season, the deal was set to run through 2014. At the time it was the sixth largest contract in baseball history, topping the seven-year, $119 million contract Carlos Beltran signed with the Mets in 2005. The deal was certainly a risk; since becoming a full-time player in 2002, Wells topped a .335 wOBA just three times, and produced at a level that would justify the contract’s $18 million AAV just once.

Wells’s fall from grace is well documented, and I’ll spare the torturous details. He has gotten off to a hot start this season, though, going 6 for 13, including four home runs, with two walks and a HBP. Coincidentally, that production came at Rangers Ballpark in Arlington, where Wells would have played his home games had he signed there as a free agent after the 2007 season. (And, considering the Rangers’ failed pursuit of Torii Hunter that off-season, it stands to reason that they would have indeed been in, perhaps aggressively, on Wells.) It might have made you wonder what might have been had he ended up signing there.

Strangely, though, Wells has not hit well at Rangers Ballpark during his career. Because of the unbalanced schedule he has played a maximum of six games there per season, and oftentimes it’s only three. Even with his performance over the past three games he still sports a .327 wOBA. Heading into that series the number was, understandably, a bit more pathetic, just .282. That’s what happens when, in a small sample, you hit more home runs during one series than you do in your entire history at a ballpark. To that end, Wells’s four homers in the series best the three he hit there in 167 PA from 2001 through 2009.

With such small samples, it’s difficult to pick out anything significant in baseball’s first few weeks. Performances turn around pretty quickly, and we’ll see the number of players with .500+ wOBAs come down over the next few weeks — the next few days, even. No player better exemplifies this than Wells. We know that he won’t keep up this pace, but by hitting this well in the season’s first series, which included a couple of game-changing hits, he’s given Blue Jays fans a reason for optimism. And maybe made Rangers fans wonder what might have been, had Wells reached free agency after the 2007 season.

When, earlier this morning, the Brewers announced a press conference my first reaction was, “Prince Fielder?” Alas, that was not to be. Instead, we learned shortly thereafter, they would announce the extension of RHP Yovani Gallardo. In the early afternoon Adam McCalvy noted that the deal will be for five years and $30.1 million, with up to $42.5 million possible if the Brewers exercise an option for a sixth season. At first glance this seems like a good deal for the Brewers, but let’s take a closer look at the deal.

Though the deal is for five years, that includes 2010, meaning that it replaces Gallardo’s current $450,000 salary. He’ll earn a $500,000 salary for the 2010 season, plus a $1.25 million signing bonus, broken down into three payments, the last of which he’ll see on November 15. That will increase to $3.25 million in 2011, $5.5 million in 2012, $7.75 million in 2013, and $11.25 million in 2014. That represents Gallardo’s seventh service year, so it replaces his first-year free agent salary. The 2015 option is for $13 million, with a $600,000 buyout, making it easy to decline in case of injury.

There is no questioning Gallardo’s talent. He has the stuff and the command to succeed in the majors, and at age-24 could have many quality years ahead of him. It took him just 77 innings at each of high-A, AA, and AAA before getting a call to the majors in 2007, where he pitched as well as could be expected of a 21-year-old. His ERA, FIP, and xFIP all fell below 4.00, his xFIP running the highest because of a 6.6 percent HR/FB ratio. Gallardo was also on a nice path of building up innings. After throwing 155 innings in 2006 he increased to 188 in 2007.

It was in 2008 that Gallardo faced issues. It started in camp when he had surgery to repair a torn lateral meniscus in his left knee. The Brewers placed him on the DL to start the season, but he was still able to make his first start on April 20. He pitched as well as the Brewers could have asked through his first two starts, allowing one run on 10 hits and five walks, striking out nine in 14 innings. He had a bit rougher go against the Cubs on May 1, but there were extenuating circumstances.

Leading off the fifth inning Reed Johnson laid a bunt down the first base line. Prince Fielder scooped it and applied the tag, but Gallardo had to leapfrog Johnson, who was sliding head first into the bag. He came down hard on his right knee and rolled on the ground writhing in pain. It appeared to be bad, but he rubbed some dirt on it, threw some warm-up pitches, and finished the inning by retiring the next two batters. And then he came out for the sixth, though he ran into some trouble there. It was only later that they discovered that he had torn his ACL.

That caused Gallardo to miss most of the season, returning only for a brief start on September 25. His full comeback happened last year, when he again kept his ERA, FIP, and xFIP below 4.00. This time his FIP ran the highest, as 12.3 percent of his fly balls allowed left the park. His strikeout rate, 9.89, rose more than one per nine innings over 2007, though his walk rate was a bit high, at 4.56. The sink on his fastball also allowed him to keep 45 percent of balls in play on the ground. If he improves that walk rate in 2010 he could fit the mold of a true ace.

His new contract represents good value for the Brewers while providing ample personal security. His injury history consists only of the minor knee surgery from spring 2008, plus the freak ACL tear from the same year. Other than that he’s been relatively healthy, so only the normal pitching concerns apply. It’s understandable, still, why Gallardo would want to secure a guaranteed $30 million. He probably left a bit of money on the table through his arbitration years, but that’s expected of these types of extensions.

The deal represents a near duplicate of the extension Jon Lester signed with the Red Sox before the 2009 season. Both Lester and Gallardo had a bit over two years’ service time at the time of extension, and the payout seems similar, as all figures are within $500,000. Boston negotiated a smaller buyout of the sixth year, $13 million option, just $250,000, but these are essentially identical. In addition to similar service time, they also pitched a similar number of innings upon signing, 354.2 for Lester and 327, including Monday’s seven-inning start, for Gallardo.

Even if the Brewers pick up the 2015 option, that would leave Gallardo a free agent at age 31. We’ve seen a number of pitchers cash in at that age. A.J. Burnett was 32 when he signed his five-year, $82.5 million contract, and John Lackey, who signed the same deal this off-season, is 31 himself. Josh Beckett, who just signed a four-year, $68 million extension, will be 31 in the first year of the deal. The market will likely be different by 2016, but if Gallardo stays healthy he’ll surely get one more big payday.

The MLBPA, it seems, loves to threaten collusion charges. We heard whispers of it after the 2007 season, when Barry Bonds didn’t get much of a look from the 29 teams that didn’t explicitly say he wasn’t welcome. During the 2008 off-season we saw a number of veterans take short-term contracts at what was considered reduced pay. Again, threats of collusion. After another off-season that was generally unfavorable to veterans we’re hearing yet again that the PA might file a grievance. As in years past, I doubt any such measure will go far.

The evidence of a possible impending grievance, per the Associated Press article, comes from player agents. They report having seen similar offers from different teams for their free-agent clients. It is understandable, then, that the Players’ Association would investigate. If owners were colluding, that is one symptom we might see. Yet, given the current environment, the claim should fall short.

There is one very good reason why agents would see similar offers from different teams for the same player: the Internet. Information is everywhere. Tom Tango took on the subject last night, using the availability of stat databases as an example. His argument certainly makes a degree of sense.

Ok, suppose that there’s a measure that everyone likes.  I dunno, let’s call it… WAR.  And let’s say that it’s constructed by researchers that both sides respect, say Tango, Rally, and Fangraphs.  And say that there’s a site that lists the dollar values, like a Beckett’s price guide or NYSE.  Then, teams give out offers that are consistent to what they read.  Well, this is a GOOD thing isn’t it?  There’s no collusion, there’s no acting in concert.  There’s an understanding that, hey, maybe Tango and Rally and Fangraphs know their [stuff].

This, however, represents just one aspect of the information revolution. Not only do teams have their internal data, but they have freely available data as well. This might cause them to act similarly when it comes to signing free agent players. But there are many other aspects at play here that would cause teams to similarly value certain players.

Just look at MLB Trade Rumors. Every day Tim Dierkes and his team aggregate more information than most people can process. This includes every rumor, from one-liners at the end of game stories to full-on reports. Some of it is noise, but some of it is legitimate information about a team’s thinking. This widespread access to information creates more efficient markets. It leads to fewer teams overpaying for talent, because they have a better idea of what other teams are thinking.

If teams were familiar with how others thought, though, wouldn’t they be able to make a superior offer to a free agent? For instance, if the Royals wanted Mark DeRosa and saw that the Giants were offering him two-years and $12 million, couldn’t they step in with a two-year, $13 million offer and have an advantage? Yes, they could. It seems, however, that the market was fragmented this winter. The big time players — John Lackey, Jason Bay, Matt Holliday — all got paid, and paid well. The similar offers likely came for the second- and third-tier players, who aren’t as important to a team. In this made-up example, perhaps the Royals didn’t feel a player like DeRosa was worth the extra million. They might be able to better use those funds to improve their team in another way.

With such easy access to so much information, it’s understandable that agents would see similar offers for their clients. Teams — most teams, at least — aren’t in the business of overpaying for talent. Nor should they. No team, not even the Yankees, has unlimited resources. The good teams deploy their funds in the best possible manner. If that means passing on a certain player because they’re not willing to overpay, so be it. Those resources can go to improve the team in another way. The superstars will continue to receive big contracts. But veterans like DeRosa might fall victim to the information revolution.

John Lannan has been something of a study in DIPS over the past two seasons. In 2008, his first full season in the bigs, he struck out under six per nine innings, which didn’t go well with his 3.56 walk rate. Yet his .273 BABIP kept him out of trouble, leaving him with a 3.91 ERA for the season. His FIP, 4.79, and xFIP, 4.28, forecasted a turnaround in 2009. Yet while Lannan posted a far lower strikeout rate and slightly lower walk and home run rates, he actually saw his ERA decrease, to 3.88. His FIP sat at a familiar mark, 4.70, and his xFIP rose to 4.69. Again he benefitted from a BABIP well below league average, .276.

Did Lannan really luck out two years in a row? The numbers make it seem like he did. After all, none of the other Nats pitchers prevented hits on balls in play to a degree even close to Lannan. Also, as Jack noted after last season, Lannan’s defense changed from 2008 to 2009, going from a +9 UZR to a -27 mark. All signs pointed to a change in 2010. But, again, all signs pointed to a regression in 2009 as well and it didn’t happen.

Imagine, then, the reaction after Lannan’s Opening Day start against the Phillies. After a Jimmy Rollins single to lead off the game Lannan worked through the Phillies’ lineup rather efficiently. In the fourth, though, everything broke down. Ryan Howard homered following a Chase Utley walk, which the Phillies followed with three straight singles. Carlos Ruiz sacrificed the runners to second and third, and then Roy Halladay, in just his second at-bat as an NL pitcher, hit a dribbler for an infield single. A walk, sac fly, and single would spell the end of Lannan’s day.

Was his luck finally catching up with him? Lannan struck out none in the game while walking three and allowed six of 16 balls in play (counting the sac flies) to fall for hits, a .375 BABIP. While it’s just one start, it’s certainly not the kind of outing the Nats wanted to see from their de facto ace. The last thing they need is a severe regression from Lannan, in a year that they might actually surprise some people.

Alas, one game doesn’t tell us much. For starters it was against the Phillies, the National League’s best offensive team. Lannan struggled against the Phillies in 2009, allowing 13 earned runs in 22.1 IP, though he did keep his BABIP against them to a nice, low .243. He also had a similar outing on Opening Day 2009, allowing six runs in just three innings to the Marlins. He followed that up with another bad start before he got back to his low BABIP ways.

Chances are, Lannan doesn’t possess some skill that allows him to suppress hits on balls in play. He has done it, but so far as we can tell he won’t be able to maintain those levels in the future. That doesn’t mean he can’t be an effective pitcher. He’ll have trouble with his low strikeout rate without an excellent walk rate to compensate. But he does keep the ball on the ground, and he does throw a good number of strikes. If he can improve that walk rate while keeping his ground ball rate well over 50 percent he might be able to settle in nicely behind the higher ceiling arms on the Nationals. For now, though, Nats fans just have to hope he can put up one more season of his low-BABIP magic.

Over the winter the Rangers sought a right-handed bat who could play first base. During the Winter Meetings in December they came close to acquiring Mike Lowell from Boston to fill that role. But after they learned that Lowell would require surgery to repair his thumb they backed away. The deal wouldn’t have been bad from Texas’s end. They would have sent catcher Max Ramirez to Boston and would have received about 75 percent of Lowell’s 2010 salary.

This spring we’ve again heard about the two parties reigniting talks. While scouts have basically labeled Lowell as an old man who needs a walker to play the field, he still appears able to hit and possibly play first base. Because of this, and because of the thumb surgery from which Lowell is recovering, word was that Boston would kick in even more salary. Yet while we heard rumblings, we didn’t hear anything indicating a deal was close.

Today Texas found a way to fill their need for a right-handed hitting first baseman and keep Ramirez in the system. Earlier this week the Mariners, somewhat famously, waived Ryan Garko. Texas put in a claim and officially acquired him today. Garko isn’t quite the hitter Lowell is, even if Lowell’s production suffers from his age and recent injuries. But for a cost-effective option, but in salary and prospect transfer, the Rangers made out decently in this deal. There could be opportunities in the future, as well, to trade for Lowell, should the Red Sox find him superfluous.

For their part, the Red Sox certainly benefit from having Lowell on the roster. He’s a bit costly for a bench player, but that doesn’t appear to bother the Sox. They were, after all, willing to send considerable salary relief to Texas in the previous deal, so money is not the object here. Perhaps they’d like to avoid a situation where they have to keep a loyal player — one who was reportedly in talks with the Phillies for a four-year contract before signing for three with Boston. As long as his presence doesn’t cause clubhouse damage, it will be an advantage for the Sox.

Lowell’s hip became a problem in August 2008. He tried to play through it at the beginning of the month, but by mid-month it was clear he was headed for the DL. He had a .358 wOBA from March through July 2008, higher than his career to that point, though a bit below his career year in 2007. He played in just 22 games and accumulated just 86 PA in August and September that year and, predictably, his production suffered, though his wOBA still sat at .344 in that short sample. By the time the playoffs rolled around, though, it was clear that he couldn’t hold up. After a hitless nine PA in the ALDS Lowell did not appear in the ALCS.

Following off-season surgery to repair the torn labrum in his hip Lowell returned for the start of the 2009 season and hit very well, though his September production, a .297 wOBA, made his season stats look a bit worse. During the season’s first five months, during which he missed 19 days to the DL and three additional days with hip tightness, Lowell posted a .366 wOBA. His defense understandably fell off, as he posted his first negative UZR since the the stat’s inaugural 2002 season. In terms of wRC+, Lowell posted his second best season as member of the Red Sox. His defense, however, made it his worst in terms of WAR.

This season the Red Sox need not worry much about Lowell’s defense. They have glovework wizard Adrian Beltre manning third base, and Kevin Youkilis can also capably man the position. If Beltre doesn’t work out as the Sox hope they could always move Youk across the diamond and insert Lowell at first. Then again, that might be the plan for getting Victor Martinez, who hasn’t caught more than 100 games since 2007, out from behind the plate. Lowell can also replace David Ortiz against tough lefties. The latter has seen his wOBA against lefties decline over the past four seasons, and while he can still do some damage against them — he did post a .206 ISO against them in 2009 — perhaps Lowell can use his lefty mashing skills here.

Having a player of Lowell’s caliber on the bench can also help protect against injuries. Last year the Yankees had both Nick Swisher and Xavier Nady for the right field gig, and much of the preseason banter centered on the team’s ability to find at-bats for Swisher. Barely a week into the season, however, Nady re-injured his elbow and needed corrective surgery. Swisher stepped in and produced at a level far above Nady’s career averages. Had the Yankees dealt Swisher during the spring, and such a move had been rumored, they would have been in a much tougher position in mid-April.

It’s understandable why the Red Sox would try to trade Lowell. He won’t be a starter, but can hit like one. Another team will find value in that, and perhaps send the Red Sox something useful in return. Additionally, there is probably, at least on a small level, a feeling of obligation towards Lowell for signing a shorter term contract with the Red Sox after the 2007 season. But unless the Red Sox receive an over the top offer, they can benefit greatly from having Lowell on the roster. Players slump and players get hurt. Lowell can help fill in those gaps and make the 2010 Red Sox a stronger team.