At one point the 2011 free agent pitching class looked like one of the strongest ones in recent history. As recently as January 2009 the class included Roy Halladay, Cliff Lee, Josh Beckett, Zack Greinke, and Brandon Webb. In the middle of that month, though, Greinke signed an extension that would keep him with the Royals through 2012. Then Webb suffered a shoulder injury that kept him out for almost all of 2009. In December the Blue Jays traded Halladay to the Phillies, who signed him to a three-year, $60 million extension. That leaves just Lee and Beckett as the elite options, but if Buster Olney’s sources are accurate then Lee might find himself the lone pitching prize of the free agent class.

Reports indicate that Beckett has a four-year offer on the table from the Red Sox and that there “is optimism a deal will be completed in the next week or two.” On the open market Beckett would likely command a contract similar to the five-year, $82.5 million deals both A.J. Burnett and John Lackey signed during the past two off-seasons. Apparently the Red Sox don’t want to offer five years due to concerns with Beckett’s shoulder, and Beckett, understandably, doesn’t want to sign a contract that penalizes him for getting hurt (like Lackey’s contract). Olney speculates that the deal could be worth $65 to $70 million, but because a $65 million deal would pay out the same average annual value as Lackey’s deal I would guess $70 million is more realistic.

During his four years with Boston Beckett has established himself as an elite starter in baseball’s toughest division. He got off to a rough start in 2006, a transition year of sorts, as he saw his home run rate spike and his strikeout rate dip. That led to a 5.01 ERA to go with a 5.12 FIP and plenty of criticism from the Boston media. While Beckett served up homers to the hated Yankees, the player they traded, Hanley Ramirez, was busy winning the NL Rookie of the Year award. Just one year later the critics would eat their words, as Beckett stopped walking so many hitters, raised his strikeout rate back to career norms, cut his home run rate in half, and placed second in the Cy Young voting. Oh, and he allowed four runs over 30 playoff innings en route to a World Series Championship.

Beckett disappointed a bit in 2008, but he still pitched well. His ground ball rate dropped while his home run rate increased, likely because his HR/FB went from 8 percent in 2007 back to his career average, around 10.5 percent, in 2008. He also saw a bit higher BABIP that season. Injuries were something of a problem for him that year. He opened the season on the DL with lower back spasms and then went on the DL again in August with elbow neuritis. He ended the season battling an oblique strain, which apparently affected his playoff performance. A far cry from his masterful 2007 run, Beckett allowed 14 runs in 14.1 innings during the 2008 playoffs.

In 2009 Beckett’s ERA came down a bit, but his FIP jumped from 3.24 to 3.63. His home run rate crept up again, though his 12.8 percent HR/FB ratio probably had a bit to do with that — his xFIP was 3.35. Of a bit further concern was his walk rate, which jumped up to 2.33 after two straight years residing below 1.80. He did avoid injury for most of the year, though, making 32 starts and not missing time until the last few days when he suffered upper back spasms. His playoff run comprised just one start, a 6.2-inning, four run performance that put the Sox in an 0-2 hole. Through it all, though, Beckett has maintained his 94 mph fastball, despite the Red Sox concerns with his shoulder.

Beckett’s right shoulder hasn’t been a problem in nearly a decade. In 2000 a doctor told him that labrum surgery was inevitable, but Dr. James Andrews opined that the surgery could be avoided. He instead rested and rehabbed, and hasn’t had an incident since. An MRI in 2007 confirmed an optimistic outlook, though the Red Sox still appear leery of signing Beckett through his age-35 season. As they see it, apparently, paying him a higher salary for four years makes more sense than signing him to the same deal Burnett and Lackey received.

In keeping up with the AL East arms race, the Red Sox would do well to retain Beckett. He’s pitched admirably atop the rotation for the past three years. His blister problems are behind him, and he’s stayed healthy for most of his Red Sox tenure. He could probably get that five-year deal on the open market this off-season, but he could do worse than four years and $70 million with a perpetual contender.

For most of the spring it appeared that the second component of the Erik Bedard trade would play a prominent role on the Orioles. Baseball America rated Chris Tillman the No. 22 overall prospect this off-season, and he stood a good chance of breaking camp as the team’s No. 5 starter behind Kevin Millwood, Jeremy Guthrie, Brian Matusz, and Brad Bergesen. On Tuesday, though, the Orioles announced that David Hernandez, and not Tillman, would be the team’s fifth starter. Tillman will head down to AAA where he can continue honing his craft with an eye at a mid-season call-up.

Both Hernandez and Tillman pitched for the Orioles last year, and they put up similar numbers. Both had ERAs around 5.40 and FIPs north of 6.00 with BABIPs around .300. Hernandez struck out more batters but also walked more and also pitched more innings. That’s not to say that they’ll continue pitching similarly. The hope, of course, is that Tillman turns into a top of the rotation arm, settling in behind Matusz and alongside Bergesen. That might be part of the reason for naming Hernandez the fifth starter. The Orioles can afford to take their time with pitchers they don’t feel are fully developed.

Hernandez, a 16th round pick in 2005, displayed excellent strikeout skills in the minors, striking out more than a batter per inning at every level. His walk rate jumped around, from 4.40 at low-A to 2.91 at advanced-A to 4.53 at AA. Even so, his FIP remained low at all levels, under 4.00. His ERA finally followed at AA in 2008, 2.68 against a 3.43 FIP. He took an even bigger step forward in 2009 at AAA, striking out 12.40 per nine while walking just 2.83, good for a 2.62 FIP and 3.30 ERA. That earned him the call-up.

The Orioles have taken their time developing Hernandez. He pitched just 145 innings in his first two professional seasons, followed by 141 in his fourth. Then again, that might not have been by design. Hernandez averaged under 5.1 innings per start through his first three professional seasons. In 2009 the Orioles upped his innings a bit, to 162.2. Yet he still averaged only 5.1 innings per start. He also averaged almost 19 pitches per inning at the major league level, something he’ll have to improve upon if he’ll factor into the Orioles rotation in the future.

Tillman, a 2006 second round pick by the Mariners, put on a display last season at AAA. In 96.2 innings he posted a 2.70 ERA with a 2.76 FIP to match. He struck out more than a batter per inning while keeping his walks to less than 2.5 per nine. When the Orioles started auditioning young starters at the end of the season he was a natural fit, though again his performance at the major league level didn’t produce great results. He allowed too many home runs, 15 in 65 innings, but he also had a high 15.2 HR/FB ratio. Given his performance throughout the minors, though, Tillman will probably dominate upon his return to AAA. If any of the youngsters behind Millwood and Guthrie struggles, Tillman could be the first replacement.

While the Orioles are not in a position to contend this season, it does not mean that they have to throw all of their best young pitchers into the fire. This is part of the reason they acquired Kevin Millwood. He provides some solidity at the top of the rotation, affording the Orioles as much time as they need to develop the future of their rotation. They’re already using youngsters Matusz and Bergesen, and will likely use Tillman, only 22 years old, at some point this season. Hernandez is a bit older and further along in his development, making him a fair choice as the No. 5 starter. If he fails, Tillman won’t be far behind.

How does a team feature the AL Cy Young winner two straight years, yet find itself in rebuilding mode? The Cleveland Indians know. In 2007, when the team made it all the way to Game 7 of the ALCS, CC Sabathia won the Cy. The next year, however, Cleveland stumbled out of the gate and found themselves in last place, 10.5 games out of first, on June 30. They didn’t waste much time in trading Sabathia to the Milwaukee Brewers for Matt LaPorta and others (including, eventually, Michael Brantley). Yet Cleveland still had something brewing in the rotation.

On July 1, Cliff Lee tossed eight innings of one-run ball against the White Sox. That pushed him up to 111.2 innings, in which he allowed just 28 runs, a 2.26 ERA to go with a 2.57 FIP. That was his halfway point. He pitched 111.2 innings after July 1 and saw slightly worse, but still elite, results: a 2.82 ERA and 3.09 FIP. The Indians improved, too, They entered play on Jul 7, the day they traded Sabathia, with a 37-51 record, a .420 win percentage. They finished the season 81-81, having gone 44-30, a .595 win percentage, after the trade. Things, then, didn’t look so gloomy. That’s why 2009 came as something of a surprise.

After trading Lee to the Phillies and receiving a handful of prospects in return, the Indians head into 2010 with a relatively thin pitching staff. Jake Westbrook, who hasn’t thrown a major league pitch since May 28, 2008, will likely start Opening Day. He was a solid option when healthy in the mid-00s, pitching 770.2 innings to a 4.06 ERA and a nearly identical FIP from 2003 through 2006. In the final year of a three-year, $33 million contract, and if the Indians again find themselves out of the race in July, he could prove a viable trade chip if healthy.

Justin Masterson and Fausto Carmona figure to follow Westbrook in the rotation. Carmona’s story is well known by now. After a standout performance in 2007 he’s struggled over the past two years, walking three more batters than he has struck out. He has pitched well this spring and will get another shot. With $18 million guaranteed to him over the next three years, it might not be his last, either. Masterson, acquired from the Red Sox in the Victor Martinez trade, will get a chance to prove his worth in the rotation. Lefties have killed him during his career, posting a .374 wOBA against him in 479 plate appearances.

The final two rotation spots appear a battle among three competitors: Aaron Laffey, David Huff, and Mitch Talbot. Laffey, a lefty who will turn 25 in April, has posted a near-league average performance in parts of three seasons with the Indians. Last season he started in 19 of his 25 appearances, logging 121.2 innings. He walked nearly as many as he struck out, though. He’s never been a strikeout guy, so he’ll have to bring down his walk totals if he’s to succeed. Huff, also a 25-year-old lefty, fared a bit worse in terms of results in 2009, a 5.61 ERA in 128.1 innings. They had comparable FIPs, though, Laffey at 4.54 and Huff at 4.69.

Talbot, acquired from the Rays in exchange for Kelly Shoppach this off-season, presents an interesting case because he is out of options and has pitched only 9.2 innings at the major league level. Over his minor league career he has struck out 7.4 batters per nine to 2.6 walks, a good ratio and a good walk rate. If he doesn’t win a rotation spot he’ll likely end up in the bullpen. Carlos Carrasco, acquired from the Phillies in the Lee trade, has performed well this spring, though he is likely ticketed for AAA to begin the season. Considering the state of the Indians rotation, he could force his way into the majors in a few months.

On the offensive side the Indians look relatively strong, but have a few question marks in terms of health. Grady Sizemore could again be the team’s best hitter. He posted the worst wOBA of his five-year career in 2009, .343, though an elbow injury certainly affected his play. A recovery to the ~.380 wOBA figures he posted in the previous three years would be a huge boost. He won’t be batting leadoff this year, but instead second. This leaves room for Asdrubal Cabrera to bat first. He greatly increased his production last year, raising his OBP to .361 while hitting for a bit more power. If he can maintain that OBP he should score plenty of runs.

After Cabrera and Sizemore, the Indians could have three lefties in a row. Shin-Soo Choo, Travis Hafner, and Russell Branyan figure to hit 3-4-5 in some order. Choo began his breakout in 2008, though he played in only 94 games. In 2009 he again displayed middle of the order skills, posting a .389 wOBA in 685 PA. Hafner remains an injury concern, having just 617 PA over the past two years, though 383 came last year. He hit decently enough, a .355 wOBA. It’s unlikely that he returns to the .420+ wOBAs he posted from 2004 through 2006, but he could still provide power if healthy. Branyan presents a similar situation in that he can hit for power and he’s an injury risk.

After that portion of the lineup, the only Indians hitter long on experience is Jhonny Peralta. He experienced a down year in 2009, though he could certainly rebound to his prior production levels. He slides over to third, too, where his defensive deficiencies shouldn’t hurt the team as much. The remaining three, Luis Valbuena, Lou Marson, and LaPorta, have just 726 career PA among them. That’s fine, though, for a team like the Indians. With only an outside chance of contending, they should get a very good look at their up and coming players.

What would it take for the Indians to make a run in 2010? A complete recovery to 2007 form for Carmona, for starters. They’ll also need an effective return from Westbrook and progress from Masterson. They’ll also need a few more things to go wrong for the Twins, the AL Central favorites. Perhaps then they could sneak into the picture. More likely, though, the Indians will perform well, but not playoffs well. They have a good crop of talent. It just seems like they underachieve most years.

Last week, as part of the Organizational Rankings series, I summarized the Blue Jays’ current talent while Marc Hulet discussed the team’s future. The team’s story is pretty basic. There’s no way they can compete with the Rays, Red Sox, and Yankees this year, but after an off-season spent rebuilding for 2011 and beyond the Jays could certainly enter the AL East mix over the next few years. Marc’s write-up reflects that. One point that both of us missed, and what Dave Cameron only briefly touched on, is the tradeable talent on Toronto’s roster.

Ken Rosenthal touched on this in a recent column, but I think he’s looking in the wrong places. Jason Frasor and Scott Downs are no doubt quality relievers, and could fetch the Jays a young player or two if traded mid-season. Neither, however, figures to net them an A prospect. That’s just not the going rate for relief pitchers over age 30 who are not only relatively expensive, but who are also free agents after the season. Thankfully for the Jays, they have other players they could combine with these two to create a more palatable trade situation.

A team seeking a first baseman mid-season might have interest in Lyle Overbay. In the final year of a four-year, $24 million deal, Overbay will earn just $7 million this season before hitting free agency. He’s been quite productive over the past two seasons, posting .342 and .363 wOBAs and producing 2.0 and 2.2 WAR. The only year in the past five that he has failed to produce 2 WAR was 2007, when a broken hand, suffered on a HBP, caused him to miss more than a month. He produced horribly upon his return and the effect seemingly spilled into 2008. In 2009 he was back at a high production level. He also plays good defense, a 6.2 UZR over the past three seasons.

On Opening Day, Shaun Marcum will take the hill for the Jays. He hasn’t pitched in a game since September, 2008, when he he injured his elbow, necessitating Tommy John surgery. He also only pitched 15.2 rehab innings last season. While Marcum is still under control for the next three seasons, the Jays could use that to their advantage. If he gets off to a hot start they could trade him to a contender in need of a back of the rotation starter. With his relative cheapness, his ability to pitch in the rotation, and his three remaining years of team control, he might be attractive to other teams. This is all dependent, of course, on his successful return from surgery.

It might seem odd for the Jays to trade a player who hit 37 home runs last season, but they could have the opportunity to deal Aaron Hill. It’s not likely. After all, the Jays don’t have someone ready to plug into second base, and a middle infield of Alex Gonzalez and John McDonald would be beyond disastrous on offense. In the future they could have Brad Emaus at the position. He didn’t make Marc Hulet’s top 10 Jays prospects list, but Baseball America says he has the best strike zone discipline in the system. Would the Jays trade a 28-year-old who is under contract for at least one more season at a reasonable salary? It depends on the return, of course, but while I think it’s unlikely I wouldn’t completely rule out a Hill trade. It could come after the season, too.

Chances are the Jays will trade one or more of these players during or just after the 2010 season. The team knows its position, and realizes that the only way to compete with the Yankees, Rays, and Red Sox is to maximize production from young, cost-controlled players while filling the gaps with free agents. They’re not ready for that last part yet, but they could position themselves better for the first part by trading some of their more dependable veterans.

The Reds have positioned themselves for a run in 2010. After win totals of 72, 74, and 78 over the past three seasons, we might finally see them break the .500 barrier for the first time since 2000. Even more, we could even see them make a run at the NL Central if a few things break their way. GM Walt Jocketty’s moves in late 2009 and this past off-season should certainly give Reds fans reason for hope.

The team features a nice blend of young and veteran players. Three of the team’s projected starters will be 26 or younger, while another two will be under 30. Leading the young crop is first baseman Joey Votto, who produced the fourth highest wOBA in the majors last season. He could prove even more valuable in 2010, at the same rate stats, if he plays more than the 131 games he did in 2009. That alone would be a huge boost to a Reds’ offense that scored just 4.15 runs per game last season.

Drew Stubbs presents the Reds with a chance to improve in center field, though almost anyone would be an improvement over Willy Taveras’s .259 wOBA. He got the call last August and hit well in his 196 plate appearances, posting a .335 wOBA while tracking down most everything hit towards center field. The eighth overall pick in the 2006 draft, Stubbs hit .269/.364/.401 through parts of three minor league seasons. Even if Stubbs can maintain his short-sample 2009 numbers he’ll be a huge positive for the Reds.

The final under-26 player is one who the Reds hope can pair with Votto and create and indomitable 3-4 combination. Jay Bruce has shown all the promise in the world. The 12th overall pick in 2005, Bruce posted monster minor league numbers everywhere he played. This earned him a late-May call-up in his age-21 season and he performed reasonably well, posting a .328 wOBA. His 2009 started off poorly, as he hit just .207/.283/.441. Dusty Baker benched him for a few games in early July, and in his first game back he broke his wrist on a diving play in the outfield. That caused him to miss two months. Upon his return in mid-September he hit well, but that was just 54 plate appearances against expanded rosters. Bruce still has a lot to prove in 2010, though the talent is certainly there.

To supplement this young core, the Reds have a few veteran players. At last year’s trade deadline they acquired Scott Rolen and then re-worked his deal over the off-season. He started the season with the Bue Jays and hit very well, posting a .367 wOBA over 373 PA before the trade. He stumbled once he moved to Cincinnati, though he did miss time after suffering a concussion in early August. A return to his early 2009 form would be a huge boost to the Reds not only on offense, but also on defense. Rolen is considered an elite defender at third and UZR measures him that way. Over his career he has posted a 15.5 UZR/150.

Two veterans finish off the Reds’ infield, Brandon Phillips and Orlando Cabrera. Phillips, entering his fifth season with the Reds, recovered a bit after posting a sub-par 2008. He lit up the league in 2007, hitting .288/.331/.485 with 30 home runs, but hasn’t reached that level since. In 2009 he posted a .337 wOBA, which would be fine production for a second baseman with his defensive skills. His double play partner, Cabrera, has seen declining offensive numbers over the past three seasons. Worse yet, his UZR dipped horribly, from 14.0 in 2008 to -15.3 in 2009. A recovery on that front could help offset his declining offensive value, though.

While the offense looks like it should improve on its 2009 season, the pitching staff is a bit more in doubt. Its best 2009 performer, Bronson Arroyo, has had a strange run as a Red. Acquired in 2006 for Wily Mo Pena, Arroyo immediately impressed, pitching 240.2 innings to a 3.29 ERA, though his FIP was 4.15. His ERA rose over the next two seasons, and in the first half of 2009 it looked like that would trend for a third straight year. In the second half, though, he shined, allowing just 27 runs over 108.1 innings, good for a 2.24 ERA. Can he repeat in 2010? His 4.78 FIP and 4.56 xFIP suggest otherwise.

Perhaps the strangest case in the Reds’ rotation is Aaron Harang. He established himself as an ace from 2005 through 2007, pitching 667.2 innings and allowing just 284 runs, a 3.77 ERA and 3.64 FIP. In 2008, however, he disappointed with a 4.78 ERA in just 184.1 innings. We all know the post hoc ergo propter hoc fallacy, but it’s tough to ignore the turning point in Harang’s 2008. In a May 25 extra innings game, Baker called on Harang in relief. He had pitched just two days prior. Managers have done this before, but Baker took it a bit far, using Harang for four innings in the eventual loss. He left that appearance with a 3.32 ERA and 3.75 FIP. For the rest of the season he had a 5.88 ERA and 5.62 FIP. That came down to a 4.21 ERA and 4.14 FIP in 2009, though his season was cut short when he needed an appendectomy. A strong performance from Harang could be key to the Reds’ 2010 season.

A pair of youngsters, Homer Bailey and Johnny Cueto, will also have to step up this season if the Reds are to succeed. Cueto, 24, enters his third major league season. He’s struggled a bit to this point, posting a 4.61 ERA and 4.79 FIP over 345.1 innings. His strikeout rate dipped in 2009, though he did improve his walk rate. The most important thing for him, it seems, is keeping the ball in the park. He had the sixth worst home run rate in the NL last season, though Harang and Arroyo were worse. Bailey, also 24, struggled in his first two major league seasons. His 2009 started off poorly, too, but after allowing nine runs (six earned) against the Padres on July 27 he allowed just 31 the rest of the season in 82.2 innings. He’ll have to pitch more like that for all of 2010 for the Reds to have a chance. In his favor, he did have a 3.96 FIP in that late-season run.

Cincinnati’s bullpen last season was right around league average, though they could see that production regress a bit in 2010. Francisco Cordero, Nick Masset, and Arthur Rhodes all posted ERAs of 2.53 or lower, a tough mark for a reliever to maintain. Danny Herrera also had a good season, though his walk rate could stand to improve. If Jared Burton returns to his 2007 and 2008 levels while another young pitcher steps up, the Reds could again have a serviceable pen. As with all pens, though, it’s tough to project them with any degree of accuracy.

The 2010 Reds could be an exciting team. They feature a number of young, promising players who, if they move closer to their potentials in 2010, could provide the team with a much needed boost. A number of quality veterans fill the lineup and rotation as well. The combination should have fans in Cincinnati excited. The NL Central could be theirs if a few things break that way.

Adam Dunn belongs in the American League. In fact, he should have played there his entire career. Yet every single one of his 5,417 plate appearances and 10,589.2 defensive innings have come in the National League. After spending the first seven and a half years of his major league career with the Reds, he went to the Diamondbacks in August 2008. Finally free to hit free agency after the season and catch on with a team that would keep him out of the field, he instead signed with the Nationals for two years and $20 million in January 2009. It had everyone from saberists to casual fans asking why.

When Adam Dunn hits baseballs, they travel a long way. Over the past three seasons he has the sixth highest ISO in the majors. His home runs during that time, 118, have averaged 409 feet. His slugging percentage, .532, is more than twice his batting average, .256, so each of his hits was worth more than a double. Most teams, I’m sure, would love to have that kind of power in their lineup. In the NL, though, it comes at the expense of his fielding.

The defensive aspect of Dunn’s game makes the Nationals’ stated desire to extend Dunn’s contract a mystery. His park adjusted wRAA last season, 35.5, ranked highest on the team, besting Ryan Zimmerman by 8.1 runs. The next closest player after that, Nick Johnson at 11.9 (just with the Nats), got traded mid-season. The only other National with a positive wRAA was Nyjer Morgan with 8.8. In other words, the team certainly appreciates his bat. Unfortunately, he cannot add his value to the lineup without playing the field.

Countless pixels have been used to describe Dunn’s defense. No adjective can describe it adequately. In fact, if you want to employ hyperbole in describing an inadequate defender, you can say he plays dunndefense (pronounced DUNN-duh-fense). Over the past three seasons only Brad Hawpe sports a worse outfield UZR, -82.1 to Dunn’s -66.9. Those two, along with Jermaine Dye, represent another world of horrible outfield defense. There’s nearly a 20-run difference between Dye and the fourth-worst outfielder.

In an attempt to limit Dunn’s exposure on defense they’ve moved him to first base. He’ll cause the least damage there, but he still handles the position poorly. He has played only 668 innings at first base over the past three years, yet still has the fourth worst UZR at the position, -16.2, and the worst UZR/150. It seems that no matter the position Dunn costs his team runs. Why, then, would a National League team want to sign him?

Two possible answers come to mind. The first doubles back to Dunn’s offensive prowess. A team like the Nats, with only three players who sported a positive wRAA last season, can’t afford to lose a hitter like Dunn, defense be damned. But if he’s costing the team runs on defense, can’t that offset his offensive numbers to an extent? While he does have the fourth most wRAA among outfielders over the past three years, his WAR ranks 37th. It appears, then, that yes, defense can offset offense, making the argument for keeping Dunn’s bat in the lineup a bit weaker.

The other answer involves a trade. GM Mike Rizzo has been charged with building a contender, and while Dunn might not fit into a potential NL East winning team perhaps he can help acquire someone who does. This contender does not figure to come this year, meaning Dunn could walk afterward. But if the Nats sign him to a two-year extension, perhaps they can trade him during or after the 2011 season to an AL team in exchange for a missing piece to their contention puzzle. It seems a longshot, and it probably doesn’t befit a team to sign someone with the intent of trading him for something useful. Given the situation, however, I wouldn’t rule it out.

We know what Adam Dunn adds to a team, but we also know what he takes away. Why, then, would a National League team, exposed to both, sign him? This isn’t the first time someone has asked this question, but with Rizzo actively discussing with the media his eagerness to extend Dunn it might be the most emphatic. The team either thinks his defensive detriment is overstated, or thinks it can turn him around in a year or two for more suitable pieces. I’m not sure either reason is enough justification to extend Dunn’s contract beyond the 2010 season.

Q: When was the last time the San Francisco Giants finished above the NL league average in runs per game?

A: 2004, when they finished second.

Of course, when you have one player who gets on base 60 percent of the time you can expect to have a high-powered offense. In 2005, though, the Giants fell off a cliff, finishing second to last in runs per game. Since then they’ve sported among the worst offenses in baseball. In 2009 they scored just 4.06 runs per game, more than a third of a run below league average. Yet, once again, during the off-season they made few moves to upgrade that substandard unit.

After the 2009 season the Giants featured solid regulars at only two positions, Pablo Sandoval at third base and Aaron Rowand in center field. Every other position was either vacant or could have used an upgrade, though Freddy Sanchez was pretty much a given at second. Helping with flexibility, Sandoval could have made a move across the diamond in case a deal for a viable third baseman presented itself. It did not. A few opportunities did at first base, though.

The Giants could have tendered Ryan Garko a contract, but instead decided to let him go rather than pay him his first-year arbitration salary. They made a run at Adam LaRoche, but ended up signing Aubrey Huff. The step up from Garko to LaRoche might have made sense, but Huff, a 33-year-old coming off a poor, to be kind, 2009 season, doesn’t represent much of an upgrade. So it goes for the Giants. Huff likely won’t hit as poorly as he did for the Orioles and Tigers last year, but chances are he also won’t come close to his 2008 numbers.

Otherwise, the only addition the Giants made this off-season is Mark DeRosa, fresh off surgery to repair a torn tendon sheath in his left wrist. The injury seemingly affected his numbers last season, as he posted a five-year low in wOBA and a four-year low in WAR. Those numbers could recover this year, and chances are DeRosa can still outhit the Giants’ 2009 left field tandem. He could always move to third base, with Sandoval taking over at first, if Huff disappoints, but that just creates another hole in the outfield. They’re already taking a chance by starting Nate Schierholtz in right.

Rounding out the offense are Edgar Renteria at short and Bengie Molina behind the plate. The past two years haven’t been kind to Renteria. He has posted negative wRAA figures and has produced just 1.7 WAR, including a minuscule 0.3 WAR last season. His defense, once an asset, now figures somewhere around league average. Molina posted an OBP under .300 in 2009, the second time he’s done so as a Giant. Yet they signed him again for 2010, leaving Buster Posey in the future talent portion of these organizational rankings. Molina’s saving grace last year was his power, a three-year high for him. If he doesn’t produce like that again he might find himself riding the bench in favor of Posey by mid-season. That might be best for the organization anyway.

Pitching, on the other hand, represents a strong point for San Francisco. Two-time reigning Cy Young winner Tim Lincecum heads the rotation, and he doesn’t figure to slow down anytime soon. Even as he lost fastball velocity last season he compensated by throwing it less frequently. He worked in his curveball and changeup more often, and even started using his slider.
Matt Cain follows him in the rotation, creating one of the best 1-2 punches in the league. His high strand rate might come back down to earth in 2010, but even so he has posted a FIP under 4 every full season of his career.

The Giants had to be happy with Barry Zito’s performance last year after two disappointing years to lead off his seven-year, $126 million contract. Like Lincecum he relied less on his fastball in 2009, concentrating more on his curveball. He also worked in a slider more than ever before in his career. Perhaps the two secondary pitches will help him remain a solid No. 3 starter.Jonathan Sanchez, often the subject of trade rumors, has found himself a spot in the Giants rotation. He could stand to walk fewer batters, but his high strikeout rate will buy him some time to do so.

In the bullpen the Giants still figure to have a quality crew, even with the departure of
Bob Howry. Brian Wilson stepped up in the closer’s role last year, and Jeremy Affeldt proved to be more than just a LOOGY. Otherwise the Giants have a number of young arms they can continue plugging into the pen until they find something that works. That seems to be the best strategy, as relievers represent the most volatile players on a baseball roster.

Can the Giants prevent enough runs to make up for their weak offense? It would be tough for the starters to match the 3.58 ERA and 3.88 FIP from last season. That puts more pressure on the offense to produce more than the 657 runs it did in 2009. Without any major off-season upgrades, though, the Giants just have to hope. That’s not a good situation for any team to be in.

Despite not finishing higher than third place in the AL East over last three seasons, the Blue Jays have boasted one of the top pitching staffs in that span. The group allowed the second fewest runs per game in 2007 and then improved on that mark in 2008, finishing first with just 3.77 runs allowed per game. Injuries to a number of starters, including Shaun Marcum, Dustin McGowan, and Jesse Litsch, caused them to drop in 2009, but all three should return this season and help bolster the Jays rotation.

One key departure, of course, offsets this pitching gain. When the Blue Jays traded Roy Halladay they essentially signaled their 2010 surrender. This could not have been an easy decision. Halladay had been with the Jays his entire career and was, by no slim margin, the team’s most popular player. Even with him the Jays stood little chance against the Rays-Yanks-Sox triumvirate. Without him those chances diminish to near nonexistence.

Surprisingly, though, the Jays staff might not be much worse than in 2009. Again, injuries forced a number of young players and even a reliever into the rotation. Chances are they won’t need Brian Tallet, a career reliever, in the rotation again this season. They could also see progress from Ricky Romero, Brett Cecil, and Marc Rzepczynski, three rookies who made 57 starts last season and who could make many more in 2010. Add in the returns of Marcum and McGowan to start the season and Litsch around the All-Star break, plus the addition of Brandon Morrow, and the staff could perhaps reproduce its 4.47 ERA from 2009.

Still, a 4.47 staff ERA without a powerhouse offense won’t cut it in the AL East. This mark also assumes a steady performance from the bullpen, which has lost one of its top contributors, Brandon League. The team does appear to have many options for the pen, though, and could piece together a successful unit. Pitchers who don’t break camp in the rotation — McGowan, Brad Mills, and Robert Ray among them — could pitch out of the pen, giving the Jay options.

While the Jays pitching staff took a turn for the worse in 2009, its offense moved in the opposite direction. In 2007 and 2008 their offense ranked below league average. Yet in 2009 the unit ranked sixth in the AL, a tenth of a run per game behind the Rays. Unfortunately, many of their top contributors will play elsewhere in 2010, most notably Scott Rolen and Marco Scutaro. Furthermore, they likely won’t see such an impressive season from Aaron Hill this year, who hit 36 home runs in 2009. None of the popular projection systems has him at even 25.

Three players will prove the keys to the Jays’ 2010 offense: Adam Lind, Vernon Wells, and Travis Snider. Lind, once a highly touted prospect who spent 2007 and 2008 splitting time between AAA and the majors, broke out in 2009, posting a .394 wOBA. His defense cost him in WAR, just 3.7, and he’ll probably spend most of his time at DH in 2010. Snider broke camp with the big league club last year, but after producing a paltry .288 wOBA through May 20 he headed back to AAA. His return in mid-August went a bit better, but the Blue Jays expect much more from their 2006 first round pick.

Wells plays the part of wild card. After signing a seven-year, $126 million contract after the 2006 season, Wells has produced just 2.1 WAR in the following three seasons. This includes his -0.1 WAR from 2009 which is due not only to his .314 wOBA, but also to his -18.2 UZR. After posting positive UZR figures from 2004 through 2006, Wells has been in the negatives the past three seasons, and in the double-digit negatives in the past two. He hit well in 2008 and has a generally positive track record, leaving the Jays with hope for 2010 and beyond. As we’ve seen over the past three seasons, though, it would be a mistake to rely on his production.

The Blue Jays do have a number of talented players on their roster, and in any other division they might have dark-horse potential. Given their spot in the AL East, though, it appears Jays fans will have to wait until next year — and maybe even the year after. But with four top-100 prospects and four of the top 41 picks in the 2010 draft, they could make their run yet. Just not this year.

Buster Olney’s Ryan Howard for Albert Pujols article has made its rounds and received its share of ridicule. Countless writers have wondered why St. Louis would consider such a swap, beyond the hometown factor Olney raised in the article. There’s no need to rehash the idea or any of the ensuing mockery. The article did make me wonder, though, about the viability of one-for-one, same position trades. Would there be any circumstances under which one would make sense? It would certainly take extenuating circumstances, and likely would take other players to balance the trade on one side. But, forgetting reality for a moment, here are three of the matches I came up with. As you’ll see, none stands a real chance of happening.

Prince Fielder for Kendry Morales

Though he’s only signed through this year, Prince Fielder has one year left of arbitration before he hits free agency. That year could get expensive, as he’s already making $10.5 million in 2010. Another season like his past two could move him in the $15 million range. The Brewers can probably afford this, but they have to think about the team’s future. What happens when Prince skips town and signs with the highest bidder?

Kendry Morales is coming off a breakout year for the Angels. After years of bouncing between AAA and the majors, he hit his stride, and figures to be a switch hitting power for years to come. Good as he is, though, he’s no Prince Fielder. The Angels would likely welcome the upgrade, as it would give them the left-handed bat they’ve sought for years. Too bad it would come after Vladimir Guerrero left town. In exchange for the superior player, the Brewers would get four years of Morales, the first of which at just $700K. His three arbitration years might get expensive, but probably not to Prince’s level.

The Angels have been a shrewd franchise, having let both John Lackey and Chone Figgins leave over the winter without much of a fight. Would they turn around, then, and take on not only a $10.5 million salary for 2010, but perhaps another $15 million for 2011? They do have the money. On the Brewers’ end, would they trade one of their two mid-lineup thumpers to save some money? If they’re going to lose Prince anyway, shouldn’t they try to get the best possible replacement?

Brian Roberts for Scott Sizemore

In the mid-2000s, Brian Roberts was the darling of the Orioles organization. Owner Peter Angelos loves him, and rewarded him last winter with a four-year, $40 million extension. He could still be around, then, if the Orioles make a Rays-esque run in 2011 or 2012. The Orioles might like his veteran presence, but they’d also probably like a young, promising second baseman who would fit among their other young players.

It appears Scott Sizemore, after dominating each level of the minors he faced, will get a shot to start for the Tigers this year. Detroit could again contend for the AL Central title, but will need all the help on offense it can get. Right now that means placing faith in a youngster with a solid minor league track record. But what if it could mean a veteran second baseman who has posted a .356 or better wOBA in four of the last five years, and in all of the last three? It would provide Detroit with a solid option at the keystone.

Detroit, however, worked hard this off-season to keep future payroll in check, so adding an additional $10 million per season for the next four doesn’t really fit with their M.O. Baltimore would probably like the trade in theory, but in practice it’s probably tough to trade the most recognizable player on the team, who also just signed his extension last winter.

Scott Rolen for Brandon Wood

Again we turn back to the Angels, who have a big question mark at third base. Over the past few years Brandon Wood has been on the shuttle between AAA and the majors, though he hasn’t had much success in the bigs. He has accumulated 224 plate appearances over three short stints, amassing a putrid wOBA of .255. He’s slated to start for the Angels at third, and while they still like his potential — he posted .405 and .387 wOBA in AAA in the past two years — they can’t like the uncertainty he brings.

If everything falls in its right place for the Reds, they might have a shot to contend in the NL Central. This means a bounceback season from Aaron Harang, a full good season from Bronson Arroyo, a step forward for Johnny Cueto, and probably a full and speedy recovery from Edinson Volquez. And that doesn’t go into the offense, which certainly needs its share of breaks. Strangely mixed among their young regular is Scott Rolen, acquired at the trade deadline last year from Toronto. Might the Reds enjoy the salary relief, along with the young talent, they’d receive by trading him?

Then again, the way the Reds reworked Rolen’s deal this winter makes him a bit more affordable. He’ll make $6 million this season (his $11 million 2010 salary minus the $5 million that was converted into a signing bonus), followed by $6.5 million in 2011 and the same in 2012. Wood will make a fraction of that over the next few years, which would make Cincinnati more flexible to pay for talent in other spots. But, as with Morales, would the Angels be willing to part with a young, cost-controlled player for a more dependable veteran?

These types of deals just don’t happen

I spent some time going up and down major league rosters yesterday looking for possible candidates. Even when I thought I might have found one — my original Brian Roberts idea involved Skip Schumaker — it seemed completely unrealistic. Even the trades above seem barely inside a liberal realm of possibility. That makes sense, though. Would you expect a team to trade one of its incumbents, straight up, for a player of the same position? I can think of only a scant few situations where both teams would agree to such a swap. And even then, as in the Rolen deal from last summer, we often see other players involved in order to satisfy one of the teams.

This week we received news of two notable retirements, Nomar Garciaparra and Brian Giles. Both ranked among the best players of their time, and will probably receive some Hall of Fame consideration. Satchel Price took on Garciapparra’s case while Ben Jedlovec discussed Giles’s, but both concluded that the players will likely fall short. I guess those articles put the Hall of Fame in the front of my mind, because when I read that Lance Berkman might miss Opening Day following knee surgery, I wondered about his chances of enshrinement in the future.

The numbers Berkman has accumulated in his 11 big league seasons are nothing short of spectacular. He has hit .299/.412/.555, good for a .408 wOBA. His career OPS+, 147, matches that of Alex Rodriguez, while his wOBA falls just .004 short of A-Rod. With numbers like that, comparable with one of the best players of this generation, it might seem like Berkman has a strong Hall case. Unfortunately, this surface analysis leaves out a number of important factors.

One major aspect that separates Berkman and Rodriguez is position. Through his career Berkman has played the outfield and first base, spending some time in center, but mostly at the corners. Meanwhile, Rodriguez has posted his stats as a shortstop and third baseman, where offense isn’t as easily found. Still, a 147 OPS+ and .408 wOBA represents an excellent career, no matter the position. In other words, while voters should keep Berkman’s position in mind, his rate stats are at a level where it shouldn’t be a deal breaker.

What might cost Berkman support is his time in the league. He has played 11 big league seasons, though only 10 with more than 400 PA and nine with more than 550. That puts him a bit short in the counting stats, which certainly count heavily with voters. He’s accumulated just 1,575 career hits and 313 home runs, leaving him a bit short by HOF standards.

Berkman still has plenty of time, at least by traditional standards. He will play 2010 at age 34, which means he could still have a number of productive seasons. After 2010, assuming he recovers well from the knee surgery, he should have somewhere around 50 career WAR (from the career WAR leaderboard), which would put him around 170th all-time. He also figures to pass a number of Hall of Famers this year, including Kirby Puckett. With a few more productive seasons he could push himself ahead of a few more HOFers.

The question, though, is of whether Berkman will continue to play into his late 30s. The Astros hold a $15 million option for 2011, and given their financial situation they might decline it. At that point Berkman could sign else where — and he’s already said that he’d probably depart Houston in that case — but that’s not a certainty. Berkman has said that he could retire if he feels he’s not as productive as he wants to be. Retirement after the 2010 or 2011 seasons would almost certainly kill his Hall chances. If he remains healthy for, say, four more seasons, though, maybe he can make a case.

At 313 career home runs, it’s a long shot for Berkman to hit the 500 mark over the next four seasons. He’d have to average 47 per season, a mark he has never attained. At his current 162-game average, 34, he’d have to play five and a half more seasons — and that doesn’t even factor in declining skills. It could realistically take him six or seven more seasons to hit that mark, and it doesn’t sound like Berkman would be up for that. We can also rule out the 3,000 hit club, as it took him 11 seasons to get even halfway there. In other words, even if he plays through 2013 he’s going to be a tough sell to the HOF voters.

Then again, there are players in the Hall with far lesser numbers. Take Puckett for instance. He posted a career 124 OPS+ and had just 2,304 its and 207 home runs. If Berkman plays another four seasons he’ll come close to Puckett’s hit total, while beating him in just about every other offensive category. Puckett’s main advantage, of course, was that he played center field in 1,432 of his 1,729 career games. Even with the positional adjustment, though, Berkman figures to surpass Puckett in WAR this season, Berkman’s 12th, the same number of seasons Puckett played.

Chances are that once he hangs up his cleats, we’ll see articles about Berkman similar to the ones we saw about Garciaparra and Giles. Like the other two, he ranks among the best players of his time, but he falls short in terms of voter criteria. If he posts four more seasons of 5 WAR ball, he’ll be up at the level of Ozzie Smith, Tim Raines, and Roberto Alomar. Will the voters a decade from now recognize that? If they do perhaps Berkman has a case. Otherwise, it appears he’ll finish just outside the threshold.