The 2011 draft class is being hyped as one of the best in recent memory. With less than three weeks until draft day it’s time to zero in on some of this year’s best prospects. Over the next couple weeks I’ll be profiling some of the higher-profile players.

With Vanderbilt starter Sonny Gray on the mound Thursday night, Vandy fell to Georgia 5-4. Although Gray’s line- 4 runs, 9 hits, 3 walks, and 6 strikeouts over 6 innings- was unimpressive, he showed electric stuff at times, and still projects as a top-10 pick.

Coming out of high school in 2008, Gray dropped to the Cubs in the 27th round primarily because of his strong commitment to Vanderbilt. Listed at only 5’11” 180, Gray will always have to answer questions about his small stature, but he has big-league stuff. Thursday night, his fastball ranged from 89-93, sitting mostly at 92, and the pitch featured good action, tailing away from left-handed hitters. When Gray is able to keep his fastball low in the strike zone, he makes it tough on hitters to elevate the ball, as evidenced by his 1.96:1 GO/AO ratio this year.

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Over the past decade, the decision making of major-league teams has increasingly come to reflect the values of the sabermetric community. There is, however, one prominent area in which the valuations made by major-league teams and those around the blogosphere continue to diverge – and that is the value of relief pitchers, particularly late-inning relievers.
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Click here for part one and here for part two.

In the previous analyses we saw that while a player increases his expected bonus by going to college, players who sign straight out of high school get to their free-agent seasons more quickly.

So are players better off by signing straight out of high school or going to college?

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If you haven’t read part one of the study, you can get caught up here.

If you have, you’ll remember that the previous analysis suggests that, for almost every round in the draft, the mean bonus a player receives after going to college is greater than what they were offered out of high school. At first glance, this finding may seem to suggest that players are better off financially by going to college. But there is more to consider than just the signing bonus a player receives.

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With the advent of the August 15th signing deadline, an increasing amount of attention each summer is devoted to which players choose to sign professional contracts and which high school players decide to go to college. With hundreds of thousands of dollars- and sometimes millions- hanging in the balance, the decision of whether to sign or go to college is a monumental one for players and their families. Not only do players have to choose between realizing the dream of playing professional baseball or going to college- two good options to be sure- there is also a pressure to get the best deal possible. The stark reality is that for many players the bonus they receive after signing is the most money they will ever get from playing the game of baseball, so it’s important to get the best deal possible.

In this study, I tried to answer whether players are better off financially by signing out of high school or going to college. In trying to answer this question, I was forced to make several assumptions, and, in some cases, engage in some flat-out guesswork. Therefore, the findings that follow need to be taken with the methodological shortcomings in mind. In this post and the ones to follow, I’ll provide an outline of my methodology along with the results. I’ll let you be the judge of whether or not there is simply too much guesswork to draw a meaningful conclusion. If nothing else, the study should provide a solid groundwork for the types of issues that need to be dealt with in the future.

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1. Jesus Montero, C
Acquired: Signed as a Free Agent 2006 (Venezuela)
2010 Level: AAA (International League)
Age on Opening Day: 21.4

Notes: One of the best pure hitter in the minors, there isn’t much Montero can’t do at the plate. He is extremely strong, and has the balance and quick hands to drive the ball to all fields. He got off to a slow start in his first taste of AAA in 2010, but he rebounded to post a more-than-respectable overall line of 289/353/517 and a career high 21 home runs. Unlike many power hitters, Montero is tough to strikeout. He struck out in only 20.1 percent of his at-bats last year, and that was even higher than his 2009 rate of 13 percent. While there are few questions abut Montero’s bat, there are plenty about his defense. He has improved over the past couple of seasons to the point where he is now merely well below-average behind the plate, but he is still not good enough to profile as an every-day catcher. He committed 15 passed balls in 2010, a total surpassed by only four other teams in the fourteen-team International league, and he only threw out 23 percent of would-be base-stealers. Still, Montero’s ability to fill in behind the plate has value. He could serve as a team’s everyday DH, as well as filling in as the back-up catcher, saving a roster spot and probably around a million dollars for his team.

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1. Mike Trout, CF
Acquired: Drafted 1st Round 2009 (New Jersey HS)
2010 Level: A/A+
Opening Day Age: 19.9

Notes: Twenty three teams passed on Trout in the 2009 draft, and looking back less than two years later, it’s hard to believe a player with Trout’s combination of tools and skills could last until the end of the first round. Despite being listed at 215 pounds, Trout is one of the fastest players in the minor leagues. He gets down the line so quickly that fairly routine ground balls to the left side can quickly become an adventure. Once he’s on base, he continues to put pressure on the defense, stealing 56 bases in 2010. There is some sentiment that Trout may slow down as he ages, but he should always be a plus runner. At the plate, Trout has exceptionally quick hands and the coordination to consistently barrel the ball. Seeing him play, his line drives seem to have 5-10 more mph on them than anybody else. So although he only hit only ten home runs last year, he could wind up slugging 20-25 a year as he learns to look for pitches to drive. Just as impressive, Trout shows an extremely patient approach for such a young hitter, posting a BB% of over 12 percent last year. Defensively, his speed allows him to cover a lot of ground, and his arm is good enough that he should be able to stay in center.

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After being confronted with failure or disappointment, it’s human nature to look back and assess what went wrong. After all, you can’t prevent the same mistakes from being made in the future if you don’t know what went wrong in the first place.

Fans and general managers use this line of thinking when they look back at the previous season. They want to know what kept their team from making the playoffs. The answer to this questions isn’t difficult to find — a suspect bullpen, injuries to key players, etc. But whatever the reason, the answer to this question is typically the focal point of the team’s offseason efforts. However, it’s imperative to keep the larger picture in mind. Improving one area to the detriment of others doesn’t help the team overall.

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1. Aaron Hicks, CF
Acquired: 2008 1st Round (Southern California HS)
2010 Level: Low A
Opening Day Age: 21.6

Notes: Prospect aficionados have a tendency to get a little antsy with highly-touted prospects. When a player doesn’t immediately light the world on fire he can be unfairly criticized, and, to some extent, I think Hicks has been subjected to this. When he was drafted, he was billed as a 5-tool player with solid power and speed highlighting his game, but the returns in those two areas have been just fair so far. In just over 1,000 career plate appearances, Hicks has only hit 16 home runs and has stolen only 42 bases. Those modest returns on top of the Twins’ decision to have him repeat the Midwest league in 2010 have some jumping off the bandwagon, but a look past those counting stats reveals a lot for Twins fans to be excited about.

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The Los Angeles Dodgers
2010 MLB Record: 80-82 (4th in the NL West)
Minor League Power Ranking: 17th (out of 30)
Click for: Last Year’s Top 10 Prospect List

The Prospects

1. Dee Gordon, SS
Acquired: Drafted 4th Round, 2008
2010 Level: AA (Southern League)
Opening Day Age: 22.11

Notes: Despite being the son of former big reliever Tom ‘Flash’ Gordon, Dee didn’t pick up baseball until his senior year of high school. What he lacks in polish, he makes up for in athleticism. His speed rates as an 80 on the scouting scale, allowing him to steal 126 bases over the past two season at a 73 percent clip. At the plate, Gordon is a contact-oriented hitter with little power. He posted a meager .077 ISO last year, and after seeing him take batting practice at the Futures Game, I don’t expect him to ever post an ISO much higher than .100 in the big leagues. His swing plane is flat, and his bat speed isn’t good enough to overcome the physical limitations of his 150-pound frame. That being said, he does a good job of barreling the ball, and that skill, coupled with his outstanding speed and ability to make contact, should allow him to hit for average. In the field, Gordon has all the tools to be a plus defender, but he makes too many errors on routine plays. It’s not altogether uncommon for young shortstops to pile up big error totals in the minor leagues and still go on to become solid defenders in the big leagues, and judging by his actions, I think with more experience he’ll make the necessary improvements to stay at short. At his peak, I see Gordon as close to a .300 hitter, with 40 steals, and average defense at short.

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