Big trades ruled the day yesterday. A minor deal that flew under the radar was the Reds buying low on Wladimir Balentien, having acquired him from Seattle for right-handed reliever Robert Manuel. M’s fans had to be hoping for a better return than a 26-year old reliever who recently broke into the big leagues. Manuel has notable minor league numbers but has done it with guile and pedestrian stuff.

Balentien’s descend from grace has been pretty dramatic. In 2008, Balentien was considered to be one of the better prospects in all of baseball. He just missed the cut on Baseball America’s Top 100 and the tough-grading John Sickels gave him a B+ grade. Balentien was coming off a season in which he hit .291/.362/.509 as a 22-year old in Triple-A, having shown improvement in pitch recognition after formerly being a hacker of the highest order. His minor league success didn’t translate to big league success. He was shuttled back and forth between Tacoma and Seattle last year and after posting a .269 wOBA in 434 major league plate appearances, Balentien was out of options and Jack Z. was out of patience. Wladimir was designated for assignment.

Yesterday, here and all over the blogosphere you read a lot of snap judgments as to what teams won what trade based on the package of prospects they were getting in return. I think Balentien illustrates that prospect grading will never be a perfect science, and even those who are considered to be very good prospects still have high rates of attrition. I for one love the snap judgments and make them myself based on scouting reports, the research that we have and by my own gut. But we won’t really know who won these trades until a few years from now.

Tony La Russa has more managerial wins to his credit than anyone not named Connie Mack or John McGraw, probably making him a lock for Cooperstown. While measuring a manager’s worth is a murky task, one thing we know just from reading the news on a regular basis is that some managers can earn their keep by making good players feel comfortable and causing them to want to stick around. Or in La Russa’s case, there can at times be the opposite effect.

La Russa and Scott Rolen publicly feuded during the 2006 playing time after Rolen was benched in favor of Scott Spiezio for a game in the NLCS. The bad blood continued to boil into the 2007 season, and while we don’t know for sure what happened behind closed doors, neither manager or player seemed to be man enough to put their egos and differences aside. In order to placate his Hall of Fame manager, newly installed GM John Mozeliak traded Rolen to the Blue Jays for Troy Glaus the following off-season in what was a “who will stay healthier?” challenge trade.

The trade looked good for the Cards after last season — Glaus played 151 games and was good for 5 WAR, while Rolen played in just 115 games and was worth 3. But a healthy Rolen has already been worth 3 WAR this year for Toronto while Glaus hasn’t taken a big league at bat. Glaus has recently suffered yet another setback in his recovery process from shoulder surgery. In Glaus’ absence, the Cardinals were forced to trade for Mark DeRosa mid-season at the expense of their two best relief prospects. Glaus is a Type A free agent this winter, but it’s hard to see him getting offered arbitration. Rolen on the other hand has another year on his contract and is generating interest in the trade market.

Adam Kennedy is another player that recently has butted heads with TLR. He mostly said the right things to the press about the lack of playing time he was getting, but for someone who was worth 1.8 WAR in 115 games, he did deserve to get in more games. While he wasn’t much with the stick (.305 wOBA in ’08), he was downright nifty with the glove (22 UZR/150). The moment he showed up to spring training, TLR requested that Kennedy be shown the door, which Kennedy was. The Cardinals are paying all of Kennedy’s $4M salary, who has been worth 1.5 WAR for the A’s.

The move was viewed as downright bizarre with no apparent replacement in sight. The Cardinals have since tried fitting a square piece into a round peg, making Skip Schumaker their everyday second baseman. Schumaker was a slightly above average player last season (2.4 WAR) and has been about the same with the bat this season, but he’s on his way to being the worst defensive second baseman in the game with a -9 UZR and -14 UZR per 150 games. His foibles with the leather are killing his value; he’s been a below average 2B with just 0.5 WAR.

Appeasing La Russa has been said to be one of the big motives for the Cardinals to gut their farm system to get Matt Holliday and DeRosa. He’s in the last year of his contract and wants to see some commitment from ownership before considering signing an extension. Maybe if he didn’t run off his players with these sort of immature personality clashes, the trades never would have been necessary. The Cardinals’ short-sighted attempts to assuage La Russa has razed their farm system and driven away productive big league players. I can only fear what will happen to the Cardinals if they keep him around longer.

Bronson Arroyo’s name is suddenly popping up in trade rumors. One source reported a deal with the Yankees was imminent, but it turns out that was nothing more than a rumor. Nothing is going down, at least not yet, but apparently Arroyo is on the Yankees’ list of potential moves.

Wait a sec…a team is actually interested in Bronson Arroyo? Really? The Bronson Arroyo of the 5.49 FIP? Arroyo hasn’t been very good since 2006, which also happened to be the season he was sent through the meat grinder. For some reason he was allowed to pitch 240 innings for the non-contending Reds that year, and former GM Wayne Krivsky signed him to a 2-year $25 million extension. He has since been your run of the mill league average innings-eater, but has really hit the wall this season. His strikeouts are down, his walks are up and he’s allowing 1.6 homers per nine. Moving from Cincy to the new Yankee Stadium would likely only exacerbate the case of acute gopheritis. The Yankees are pretty much lock for the playoffs as things stand, there’s no point in them adding Arroyo, even if he modestly rebounds as ZiPS projects him to. (4.66 FIP over the rest of the season.)

Arroyo is probably a 1.5 WAR pitcher next year but is going to get paid like a 2.5 WAR pitcher. He’s due $4 million the rest of the season, $11 million the next season and has a $11 option the following season, with a $2 million buyout. It’s hard to fathom that his option would get picked up. Unless the Reds are willing to eat the vast majority of his salary, any GM trading for Bronson Arroyo should be immediately fired for incompetence. It would be essentially be paying for the privilege of flushing $6 million down the toilet.

Billy Beane said he wanted the equivalent of two-first round draft picks in order to trade Matt Holliday. Asking price paid. Not only did Oakland pry Brett Wallace away from St. Louis, but two other solid prospects in RHP Clayton Mortensen and OF Shane Peterson.

Drafted in the 2007 draft 36th overall as a senior out of Gonzaga, Mortensen came with more projectability and less polish than your typical college pitcher. Despite that, Mortensen found himself pitching in Triple-A just a year after he was drafted. Tall and gangly at 6-4, 180 pounds, the Cardinals loved his 90-93 MPH sinker. This past season 55% of the balls his opponents put in play were of the worm burning variety. Mortensen struggled with walks (4.73 BB/9) and homers (1.35 HR/9) but this year he’s improved his control (2.91 BB/9). Mortensen has two average secondary pitches that have shown above average potential at times – a slider that he throws to right-handers and a change-up to lefties. He looks more like a back-end starter right now, but as he tightens up his secondary offerings, he has #3 potential.

Shane Peterson was the 59th overall pick in the 2008 draft out of Long Beach State and it’s easy to see his appeal to results-oriented drafting teams like St. Louis and Oakland — amongst other things, he posted a .506 on-base percentage his junior year. Peterson has odd looking hitting mechanics. He’s a front foot hitter, but he has good bat speed and a high finish that helps him get a little bit of loft. He plays first base and can play any outfield position, but his lack of range makes him better suited for a corner spot. Peterson walked in 14.5% of his plate appearances for short-season Batavia, while also striking out nearly a third of them. This season he’s cut down on the K’s but also the walks that he was known for in college; his walk rate has hovered around the 6%-7% all season. Because of his funky hitting approach, he doesn’t hit for much power and he has the career.124 ISO in the minors to prove it. Scouts see him more as a 4th outfielder, but it looks like Oakland will try him in center. If he prove that he can stick there, his bat could have some value.

Rumors are flying throughout the twitterverse that St. Louis is doing some Holliday shopping, and it is expected to come at the expense of their top prospect, Brett Wallace.

Brett Wallace is not-so affectionately dubbed “the Walrus” by scouts for his 6-1, 245 pear-shaped body. Scouts do love his bat though; he was considered to be the best pure hitter of the 2008 draft. In just a season and a half of pro-ball, Wallace has put up a .308/.392/.469 line. This year he started slowly for Triple-A Memphis, but has worked his way up to a respectable .298/.351/.431. Not eye-catching, but certainly not at all shabby for someone who was swinging a metal bat in the Pac-10 just a little over a year ago.

Wallace is not projected to be a big-time power threat, but rather a 15-20 homer guy who hits for a high average and takes his fair share of walks; somewhat of a Kevin Youkilis before he found his power stroke. The biggest knock on Wallace his “fall down range”. He’s defensively challenged at third base to put it mildly, and there is this guy named Pujols in St. Louis who isn’t moving from first base.

Baseball America recently came out with their mid-season top 25, and Wallace ranked 21st. According to Victor Wang — who has published some tremendous research on the hidden value of prospects and the draft — top 11-25 ranked hitters have a trade value of $25 million. Suffice to say, Wallace is a valuable commodity.

Matt Holliday is projected to hit for a .370 wOBA the rest of the season. He’s a good fielder and base-runner, so we can safely figure he will add to the Cardinals a couple of wins, worth $9 million. He’s also a Type-A free agent at the end of the season, meaning an added bonus of some extra draft picks. Once again referring to Victor’s research, that compensation is worth $5 million to a club, not even close to equal value of a top 100 prospect. (Sky also has more light on the subject at BtB. Bookmark it, folks.) Holliday is also due about $6M in salary for the rest of the season.

So two wins plus draft pick compensation minus salary equals about $8 million in value for Holliday. Simple math, folks — $25M > $8M. The trade is actually pretty lopsided when you look at from that perspective. Mozeliak is also faced with the fact that after Brett Wallace, his farm system will be a lot thinner, no pun intended.

Flags fly forever, and Wallace may never quite pan out and is probably not the greatest fit for his parent club.The Cardinals should be buyers at this point, but I wonder if they can’t get a better return than a rental for their top prospect.

These Dodgers just cannot be stopped.

With the game tied 2-2 in the 6th inning, Bronson Arroyo found himself in a jam with the bases loaded and only one out. Chad Billingsley was due up and was pitching well, having fanned 7 batters and allowed just 2 ER on 93 pitches, but manager Joe Torre opted to go all in and let Manny Ramirez pinch hit. Ramirez was not in the lineup because of a bruised left hand suffered the previous night.

Dusty Baker then countered with his sinker-balling reliever Nick Masset in hopes of inducing a double play. Instead, Manny hit a laser beam into the left field stands, also fittingly known as the “Mannywood section”. Dodger Stadium erupted into a total frenzy. Ramirez ended up taking two curtain calls. It also just so happened to be Manny Ramirez bobble-head night.

Some fans and members of the media are already calling this as one of the greatest moments in Dodger history, going so far to compare this moment to Kirk Gibson’s triumphant limp around the bases of Game 1 of the ’88 World Series. Yeah, I don’t think so, but there is a definite lesson here.

Sorry, self-righteous sports writers. Next time you feel like writing some high-horsed column about how steroids are the epitome of evil in baseball, go back and watch the Manny Granny and watch the fans go completely bananas. It is hard proof that the majority of fans really don’t give a rip about PEDs.

Double plays are called the pitcher’s best friend for a good reason. I think we’re all familiar with the huge swing in win expectancy that takes place when a pitcher wiggles out of a one-out, bases loaded jam with an inning ending double play. And it is a skill for infielders; some are clearly better at turning DP’s than others. It takes talent for a shortstop to field the ball quickly and cleanly, transfer to the second baseman, the second baseman must pivot, throw accurately and quickly to first base…you get the idea. Your routine 6-4-3 double play is probably a lot harder than it looks.

One of the components of UZR for infielders is DPR, or double play runs. It is simply (and I’m quoting word for word from the site glossary) “the number of runs above or below average a fielder is, based on the number double plays versus the number forces at second they get, as compared to an average fielder at that position, given the speed and location of the ball and the handedness of the batter.”

I definitely am the wrong person to get into the nitty gritty details of such things, but I can sort through leader boards with the best of them. I wanted to look at just some of the leaders and laggards of the keystone combos. One note before we jump in (and someone correct me if I’m mistaken) but it appears to me a typical shortstop or second baseman is usually about a maximum of plus or minus three runs in pivot or starting double plays, or in other words, the difference between a very good middle infielder and a very bad one is really only about ten double plays a year. So we can say that the ability to turn a double play can be pretty overrated. Range is much, much more important.

Your 2009 Top DP Combo thus far:

Jack Wilson and Freddy Sanchez. Hey, we talked about these two yesterday. Wilson has been worth 1.7 DP runs, Sanchez 1.4, for a total of 3.1 runs saved in turning the double play. Compare this to…

Your 2009 Worst DP Combo:

Hanley Ramirez and Dan Uggla: These two are a pitcher’s worst enemy. Hanley Ramirez has been a -1.4, Dan Uggla an ugly -2.2. That’s -3.6 runs for those of you scoring at home.

Getting back to Jack Wilson for a moment, FanGraphs has UZR data dating back from 2002. Wilson is by far the leader at double play runs with +15.6. Michael Young has been the worst at -7.8, and he wasn’t moved full time to shortstop until 2004.

A word about Dan Uggla — the man is in some sort of DP slump, as the three seasons prior (2006-2008) he led all second baseman with +6 runs. In fact, his ability to turn the DP is what salvaged his defensive value. DP’s aside, Uggla was a -6.7 UZR during those seasons. Brian Roberts was the worst second baseman at -6.1. Roberts was worth 7.7 UZR before factoring DPR, so his lack of ability to turn two offset what other defensive value he added. He’s the anti-Uggla.

Finally, the best keystone combo between 2006 until now was Yuniesky Betancourt and Jose Lopez of the Mariners, who were combined for +9.8 runs, or a full win. The fact that it took one DP combo to total a whole win over three and a half seasons drives home the fact that while that the ability to turn two is important, it is not nearly as important as we might have thought. Being that Yuniesky has been so brilliant at DP’s and yet so bad at everything else is also a reminder that range is waaaay more important.

Neil Huntington’s attempt to look like a nice guy ended up with him looking like a bit of a jerk, as details on the contract extensions for Jack Wilson and Freddy Sanchez came to light. I’m not here to suggest that giving long-term deals to two middle infielders over 30 years of age is a wise move, but the offer to Sanchez at least could be seen as borderline insulting.

Wilson’s offer was for 2-years, $8 million with an option for a third year. Sanchez’s offer covered two years, $10 million while also voiding his $8 million, 2010 vesting option if he attains to 600 plate appearances this year, which looks like a real possibility. Both offers were quickly shot down by the players, and there are some reports these offers were of the “take it or leave it” variety, not starting points to negotiations. So what is each player really worth?

Jack Wilson has been downright groovy with the glove this season, with an UZR of 11 and an UZR/150 of 19. The season prior he was worth 17 runs per 150 games. Hitting-wise, he’s been Jack Wilson with his usual .300 wOBA over 272 plate appearances. This season so far he has been worth 1.8 wins above replacement, making him well worth his hay. Considering past history, he is probably more like a 2-win player going forward, worth $9 million on the non-chilled free agent market. His $8.4 mil option is hardly a bargain, but is about right. With blue light specials being made for players of Adam Everett’s ilk being made over the winter, I can see the Buc’s desire to see if they can’t get a discount. It will be interesting to see what sort of a deal Wilson will get over the off-season.

Freddy Sanchez has already been worth nearly $12 million to the team just coming off of the break, double what he is getting paid now. Why on earth would he take a $3 million pay cut when all he has to do is stay in the lineup? Granted, Sanchez was terrible last year and it isn’t like he is without his foibles — he doesn’t run all that well, doesn’t walk and doesn’t hit for much power. He’s been slightly above average in the field, with a career UZR/150 of 5. So maybe he is somewhat of an empty .300 hitter, but over his past three healthy seasons, his WAR totals have been 3.2, 4.8, 3.8 and now 2.6 this season. The man is hardly a $5 mil a year player.

It seems rather doubtful a team would be willing to pick up Wilson’s option, and he is not going to be a Type A or B free agent this winter. Wilson is still due about $3 mil for the rest of the season, so if the Pirates can get a “C” grade prospect or maybe two in a trade, Huntington should suck it up and say “yes”. Sanchez on the other hand could help a team not only win this season but the following, so the Pirates should be getting something shiny in return. Probably not a top 25 caliber prospect, but a nifty prospect to add to Huntington’s collection.

Pirate fans, brace yourselves for a new and much less-inspiring double play combo very soon.

Yesterday the Diamondbacks traded Felipe Lopez to the Brewers for a pair of minor leaguers — outfielder Cole Gillespie and right-handed reliever Roque Mercedes.

Well out of contention, Arizona dumps about $2 million worth of salary while netting a couple of “C” grade prospects in the process. Cole Gillespie is your prototypical tweener. He’s already 25-years old, his offensive profile fits better in center field but his lack of defensive skills limit him to an outfield corner. He did put together a strong offensive season (.396 wOBA) while battling a toe injury last year for Double-A Huntsville, but his production has been way down this year (.330 wOBA). Over the past two seasons he’s shown some moderate power and good patience. While he’s scuffled recently due to some injuries, he’s an MLB-ready fourth outfielder. As for Mercedes, he has a decent fastball/slider combo and has moved from starting to relief this past season. He’s closing games for the Brewers’ High-A affiliate and will be 23 this winter.

You would think that the quartet of Casey McGehee, Craig Counsell, Bill Hall and Mat Gamel would be enough options for second/third base, but apparently the plan is to send Gamel back to Triple-A. After terrorizing Pacific Coast League pitchers, Gamel has been striking out in 40% of his plate appearances in the majors and could stand to benefit from some more seasoning back in the minors. ZiPS projects a .331 wOBA for Lopez the rest of the season. Lopez should never play shortstop, but he won’t hurt the Brewers defensively playing second base (career UZR/150 -0.4 at second, -11.2 at short). All in all, he looks like a 1 WAR player the rest of the way.

For a minor splash, I can’t help but wonder about some of the ripples this deal could cause. The perplexing J.J. Hardy could shown the door soon, and Counsell could slide over to short while Alcides Escobar put the finishing touches on his game in the minors. Right now at least, it looks like McGehee/Counsell will form a platoon at the hot corner. There’s also some speculation that this is a preliminary move for the Brew Crew to make a move for some pitching.

This is a small win-small win deal if there ever was one. Arizona dumps some salary, the Brewers get a little better offensively while allowing their top hitting prospect to gain a little more experience.

The Cardinals have a question to answer. What in the world are they going to do with Troy Glaus? The big slugger is a week into a twenty day rehab assignment in the minors and should be cleared to play by August. With Cardinal third-sackers combining for a pathetic .275 wOBA, you would expect that getting back a hitter like Glaus would be welcome news.

Unfortunately for St. Louis fans, Glaus can’t throw across the diamond without experiencing pain in his right shoulder. Swinging the bat is another thing, but that doesn’t seem to help the Cardinals. Well, that is unless they would consider some outside-the-box thinking, like say switching Pujols and Glaus to opposite sides of the diamond. Otherwise, Glaus will be limited to being one expensive pinch-hitter.

Let’s consider the crazy, um, I mean creative side for minute. Early in his career, Pujols played 96 games at the hot corner. According to UZR, he was worth -4 runs per 150 games; not great but by no means damaging given his numinous bat. While that was years ago, checking the results of Tango’s Scouting Report by the Fans, Pujols’ instincts and hands are nigh impeccable, both desirable traits in a third baseman. On the other hand, his arm strength rates as below-average, which is of course is less than what you would like. For what little it might be worth, based on his different grades for the various fielding skills, both Eric Chavez and Mike Lowell pop up in Albert’s similarity scores. So we know that Pujols is an elite defender at first, and chances are he could hold down the fort at third base just fine for the next few months.

Aside from limiting Glaus to pinch-hit duty, the other option would be trading him to an American League team looking for a DH, such as Detroit. This would most likely mean the Cardinals would have to eat most of the remaining $6 million left on his contract and getting little in return.

According to the St. Louis Post-Dispatch, Pujols unselfishly asked to play third, but his manager dismissed the idea. Tony LaRussa is built his reputation as someone who will toy with lineups in order to gain even the slightest advantage, but doesn’t want to tinker with Albert. I definitely can understand the reticence when it comes to dealing with his superstar, but it seems to me that moving him to third for two months is hardly as big of deal as it initially appears to be. Considering the Cardinals have long been trolling the trade market looking to add a bat, giving away a Glaus for nothing would be a waste.