Author: Meg Rowley | Page 14 | FanGraphs Baseball

Effectively Wild Episode 1755: Chaos Letdown

October 4, 2021

EWFI

Meg Rowley and guest co-host Craig Goldstein of Baseball Prospectus recap the final weekend of regular season baseball before previewing this week’s Wild Card games. They discuss the Mariners’ decision not to promote Julio Rodríguez, their disappointment at the lack of tiebreaker games, franchise player farewells, the current playoff format, what comes next for Seattle and Toronto, and what they’re most excited to watch in October. Then they turn their attention to the Yankees, Red Sox, Dodgers, and Cardinals, offering their thoughts on what each squad should feel confident and nervous about going into the play-in games. Finally, they try to solve the mystery of Hunter Renfroe’s defense. Read the rest of this entry »

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Effectively Wild Episode 1754: Never Tell Me the Odds

by Meg Rowley

October 1, 2021

EWFI

With the postseason around the corner, Meg Rowley and guest co-host Ben Clemens discuss the playoff picture, how the Seattle Mariners got where they are, which team Ben would prefer to see his Cardinals match up against in the NL Wild Card, and the biggest surprises of the season. Then they discuss Ben’s recent work assessing FanGraphs’ playoff odds, what the odds do well and less-well, what kinds of teams they tend to be too low on or overestimate, and how the model could improve. They also offer some theories about why we seem to struggle with probabilistic thinking, look back on what they’ll miss most about the 2021 regular season, and share some brief Cy Young thoughts. Read the rest of this entry »

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Presenting the FanGraphs 2021 Trade Deadline Roundup

by Meg Rowley

August 2, 2021

Over the past two weeks, the FanGraphs staff has written over 50 pieces dedicated to analyzing the 2021 trade deadline, from Jay Jaffe’s Replacement-Level Killers series, which previewed teams’ positions of need, to Eric Longenhagen’s breakdown of the teams with impending 40-man roster crunch, to our analysis of every deadline move, to Ben Clemens and Dan Szymborski’s recaps of the deadline’s winners and losers. It’s a lot to sort through, so to assist you in finding anything you may have missed during the flurry, I’ve rounded up all of our deadline pieces in one place. You’ll find the broader preview and summary pieces (of which we’ll have a few more today, so stay tuned) listed first, followed by a team-by-team listing of the transaction analyses that involved your favorite squad, either as buyers or sellers. In instances where we dissected a transaction across multiple pieces — hello, Max Scherzer/Trea Turner trade! — you’ll see them grouped together.

As always, all of the pieces linked below are free to read, but they took time and resources to produce. If you enjoyed our coverage of the trade deadline and are in a position to do so, we hope you’ll sign up for a FanGraphs Ad-free Membership. It’s the best way to support our work and experience the site. Now, on to the roundup! Read the rest of this entry »

Meg Rowley FanGraphs Chat – 5/19/2021

by Meg Rowley

May 19, 2021

4:01	Meg Rowley: Hi all and welcome to the chat!

4:02

Chris: I don’t understand how the mariners have the worst offense in the game let alone baseball history. They have averagish players at a lot of positions, understandably they have no depth and a few holes, but lots of teams have had those two things before. They are going to start hitting right? Right?

4:08	Meg Rowley: (hi sorry, minor internet hiccup, am returned)

4:08	Meg Rowley: I mean, I think that the odds that they hit below .200 as a team going forward are pretty small but this lineup beyond Seager and Haniger has been very bad so far. Evan White has a 28 wRC+. He famously is a first baseman.

4:10	Meg Rowley: I think it is likely to improve if only because I don’t think Dylan Moore is actually this bad and they have Kelenic now but there is a real lack of depth here that is concerning, and was fairly easy to see coming before the season started.

4:10	Sad Rockes Fan: The Rockies are 2-16 on the road. Feel like we should marvel at that.

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Meg Rowley FanGraphs Chat – 5/5/2021

by Meg Rowley

May 5, 2021

4:00	Meg Rowley: Hi all, and thanks for stopping by. Let’s get rolling on the chat.

4:00	Magic Kingdome: Who starts Game 1 of the 2021 ALCS for the Mariners?

4:01	Meg Rowley: All right now settle down.

4:01	Meg Rowley: I encourage everyone to take joy where they can find it and revel in good starts and also, not set yourself up for disappointment.

4:02	Padres Offense: Pls give the magic hitting juice. I need.

4:05	Meg Rowley: If it makes you feel any better, they are slightly underperforming their baseruns but yeah, it’s been an unwelcome swoon. I don’t expect it to be a sustained swoon, but yeah, would be good for Machado and Cronenworth to get going.

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Meg Rowley FanGraphs Chat – 4/28/2021

by Meg Rowley

April 28, 2021

4:00	Meg Rowley: HI everyone, and welcome to the chat. Going to grab a fresh cup of coffee and then shall get started.

4:02	o’s: will we ever see chris davis again?

4:04	Meg Rowley: Perhaps around town, having a coffee, running some errands…

4:05

Meg Rowley: I’m sure when he’s completed his injury rehab that he’ll be back, though I wouldn’t be surprised to see his playing time taper. There’s too much left on the contract and the club too far from contention for him to totally fall off, but getting a better sense of what they have in their young guys and any veterans who cycle through is too valuable to afford him a ton of ABs.

4:06	Andy: Where can my young daughter and I watch/listen to women analyze baseball. Podcasts do not hold her attention, but she enjoys broadcasts and YouTube channels like Fuzzy. She’s growing frustrated with the lack of voices like hers around a game she loves so much

4:09	Meg Rowley: There’s always the Yankees radio broadcasts, which are an audio option on MLB dot TV. And while their games might not be the most scintillating, you could try Orioles radio, where I believe Melanie Newman is doing play by play.

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Meg Rowley FanGraphs Chat – 4/14/2021

by Meg Rowley

April 14, 2021

4:01	Meg Rowley: Hi everyone! Allow me to fetch a seltzer and then we’ll get underway.

4:02	Sad, Confused Marlins Fan: Huge baseball fan and I just heard about this Atlantic League. Can you give me a atlantic league for dummies ? 🙂

4:04

Meg Rowley: Not a dummy – there’s a lot to know, but for your purposes, it is probably good to start with this piece on the most recent round of experimentation MLB is going to do there (they’re an MLB partner league): https://theathletic.com/2518208/2021/04/14/moving-the-mound-the-double… and how past players there have felt about testing other rule changes there: https://www.si.com/mlb/2019/07/25/baseball-rule-changes-atlantic-leagu…

4:04	Meg Rowley: Jay Jaffe will have more for you tomorrow!

4:05	Sammy So-so: Corey Kluber looks to my admittedly non-scout eyes like he might be cooked, but Jameson Taillon seems to still have something left in the tank even if the results aren’t there yet. But what does science say, Meg? Thanks!

4:10

Meg Rowley: There was always risk with Kluber given the injuries and the dipping velo (which he should be able to survive without given the strength of the cutter and curve but there is a limit to these things), and the early going here hasn’t been particularly encouraging but of course it is three starts (though, three brief starts!). Taillon I think you should be mostly encouraged by. Tony wrote a nice thing about him and Brent Honeywell Jr. that’s worth checking out: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/for-two-al-east-pitchers-results-arent-imp…

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Meg Rowley FanGraphs Chat – 4/7/2021

by Meg Rowley

April 7, 2021

4:00	Dave: Are you available to hit for the Cubs?

4:00	Meg Rowley: I have to chat!

4:00	Meg Rowley: Sorry, Cubs! Also, hello all, and welcome to the chat. Let’s get going here.

4:00	Saul: 6 games in, what are your way-too-early takes for the season

4:02	Meg Rowley: That it’s very cool to see Yermín Mercedes doing this, and that despite the risk and it perhaps not being the totally optimal way to use him, I hope Shohei Ohtani is healthy enough to justify him doing the two-way thing all season.

4:02	Meg Rowley: Really groundbreaking stuff, I know.

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FanGraphs 2021 Opening Day Chat Part II: Even More Chat!

by Meg Rowley

April 1, 2021