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What’s Wrong With Jon Lester?
From 2008 to 2010, there were only six pitchers in baseball better than Jon Lester, and you can probably identify them all by first name — Roy, Cliff, Tim, Zack, CC and Justin. Last year however, was a different story. Lester was still one of the top 30 pitchers in the game, but he was ensconced safely outside of the top 10. While many expected a rebound, or at least for Lester to plateau in 2012, he has continued his descent, with the exclamation point coming yesterday, when he allowed 11 runs in four innings to the Blue Jays.
As we noted last week with Jonathan Sanchez, part of Lester’s trouble may stem from the fact that while his fastball velocity is declining, his changeup velocity is increasing. The changeup hasn’t been a problem for Lester this season, but his fastball certainly has. Lester has not even lost a mile and a half on his four-seamer, and it is still the ninth-fastest four-seamer among left-handed starters. But that sentence is a bit of a tip off, isn’t it? Two seasons ago, that sentence would have read “tied for 11th-fastest in the game.” Now, it needs qualifiers. Also, it is getting hit hard — he is allowing a .397 wOBA on his fastball this season.
Still, that’s not what is most troubling. In 2010, when Lester posted a 3.13 FIP, he allowed a .396 wOBA on his fastball, so clearly he can be effective without a dominating fastball. But what Lester does need to be effective are the pitches that break — his cutter, curveball and sinker — and right now, they are not. His cutter, in particular, has been a mystery. For starters, he is either throwing it less frequently or he has been throwing it in a way that makes it harder to identify as a cutter. That can sometimes be attributable to a computer or user error or change in how pitches are identified, but if it isn’t, it’s a big issue for Lester moving forward. Over the last three seasons, the cutter had been Lester’s bread and butter, and had been one of the most effective cutters in the game. From ’09-’11, he threw it 20.5 percent of the time. This year, that has dipped to 11.5%. Hitters are still having trouble squaring up the pitch, but they’re not missing it with the frequency they have in the past — his SwStr% on his cutter is four percent lower than it has been the past three seasons.
Rockies, Royals Swap Guthrie, Sanchez
Jeremy Guthrie and Jonathan Sanchez — both acquired in deals this past offseason — were supposed to help the Rockies and Royals, respectively, find some stability in their rotations. That never really played out however, and on Friday the two teams engaged a rare double change-of-scenery deal.
Justin Upton Trade Would Be a Rarity
The Diamondbacks have made it known that they are open to trading right-fielder Justin Upton. The two-time all-star, who finished fourth in the National League Most Valuable Player voting last season and also tied for 19th in WAR in his age-23 season, is seemingly a cornerstone player. But he has struggled this season, has been openly criticized by his team’s managing general partner and was booed by his hometown fans. The idea of Upton leaving the desert is no longer unimaginable. And such a trade would put him in rare company.
Since 2002, there have been 73 position players who played in at least 300 games by the end of their age-24 seasons. The list includes Upton, who is already up to 663. Of those 73, 13 of them were traded at some point before the end of their age-24 seasons. They are:
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A Hypothetical Nationals Trade For Cole Hamels
After a lot of banter about what Cole Hamels might fetch in trade, it was reported earlier today that the Phillies are preparing a “major offer” in an attempt to retain him past this season. It was also reported that the Nationals might be relatively quiet at the trade deadline, given that they have few holes to fill. And that’s true, if Stephen Strasburg doesn’t get shut down. But, if he does get shut down, there is one person who could instantly fill his shoes and keep the Nationals in pursuit of a World Series crown — Cole Hamels.
Dempster Diving For Better Trade Value
Ryan Dempster has always been a solid pitcher, and given that he regularly piles up the innings, has developed a reputation as a workhorse as well. The 35-year-old righty has battled quad and back injuries this season, but when he’s pitched, he has been spectacular. And now that he is back on the mound, he is attracting quite a bit of trade interest, as teams that may not want to pony up the prospects that it would take to land Zack Greinke or Cole Hamels (should they even really become available) try to find an alternative solution.
Why Trade for Liriano and Use Him as a Reliever?
With Francisco Liriano heating up, and so few teams branded as definitive sellers as trade-deadline season gets ready to kick into high gear, interest in the lefty figures to pique soon. Earlier today, Ken Rosenthal reported that some teams prefer Liriano as a reliever. While Liriano could work out as a reliever, acquiring him to be one seems like a circuitous route to success.
Angels’ Rotation Not As Strong As Expected
Last season, Angels starting pitchers combined for a 3.78 FIP, eighth-best in baseball. Then the team added C.J. Wilson to replace Joel Pineiro, giving them — on paper — a front three that would be one of the best in the game. Add in more Jerome Williams and Garrett Richards and less Tyler Chatwood, and it seemed that on paper, Los Angeles of Anaheim would easily have a top-five rotation this season. So far, however, it hasn’t worked out that way.