| 11:46 |
: Be here soon!
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| 11:48 |
:
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| 11:48 |
: enjoy
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| 12:00 |
Why? |
| 12:00 |
: Let’s get existential.
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| 12:00 |
Eno!!! My fantasy team is getting crushed by Almonte and Miller. Do they turn it around? Should I hold steady or look for replacements? |
Earlier in the week, we talked about the evolution of Zack Greinke’s pitches. Mostly the piece was about the dalliance of his slider and his cutter over his career. Left on the cutting room floor was a mini conversation we had about his curveball. It didn’t fit the narrative because it wasn’t about an adjustment he’d made. But what he said did send me on a journey through the numbers.
Turns out, Greinke’s curve — despite being his third-best pitch and owning average peripherals — improves when compared to its true peers.
Over the course of a career, every starting pitcher has to deal with change. As the velocity on their pitches wanes or the league figures out what they throw, they have to continually adapt; feature secondary pitches more often, develop new pitches, add wrinkles to old pitches, or mix up their pitch selections to keep hitters off balance. If you want to get 600 outs per year, every year, you can’t do the same thing every time out.
For Zack Greinke, much of that story of adaptation revolves around his slider.
There were the heady times, of course. The 2009 season with Kansas City brought a Cy Young Award. His slider? “It was amazing, the best pitch I ever had,” Greinke said before a game with the Giants last week. That pitch was a big part of how he posted a 2.16 ERA and struck out 242 batters.
Unfortunately, time comes for all pitchers. For Greinke, he saw it in the slider. The pitch “slowly got a little worse,” Greinke said — it was “coming out real good, but the hitters weren’t really reacting to it.” Why? Greinke shrugged. That 2009 slider “was just better, it just happens.” Watch the rates on the pitch drop.
| 11:47 |
: Will be here at top of hour. In the meantime
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| 11:47 |
:
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| 11:47 |
: Never thought I’d like a Buddy Holly cover.
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| 12:01 |
Do you believe in Neil Walker’s recent power surge, or should I drop him when Reyes comes of the DL? |
| 12:01 |
: I’ll take the ZiPs RoS (17 HR more) over Steamer (12 HR). 20 HR, career high, modest, sounds right.
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| 12:01 |
Think Santos will keep the job when Janssen comes of the DL? |
When we last talked to Brandon McCarthy, he was looking for a change-up. He didn’t find it. But he did find what he hopes will be the key to a successful — and full — season this year: Bulk.
If you’re going to have one great pitch, it’s probably good to have a great fastball. It’s thrown more than all the other pitches combined, at least. But in today’s baseball, the benders and breakers get the oohs and aahs — and the appreciation of your coaching staff. Tony Cingrani has heard all about it on his way up to the big leagues.
As he progressed through the Reds’ system, the former college closer always heard from the coaching staff that he needed to work on his slider. They told him he needed the pitch to “get to the next level,” Cingrani told me this spring, but he disagreed. “I’m not going to lose the game on that one pitch.” So he worked on it in bullpens and on the side. And he led the minor leagues in ERA in 2013.
He made it to the big leagues on the back of that fastball, so it’s hard to disagree with his approach. What a fastball it is: according to PITCHf/x, only one pitcher threw more than 750 four-seam fastballs and got a better whiff rate on the pitch last year — Madison Bumgarner. The Reds’ lefty even got more whiffs with his four-seamer than gasaholics Matt Harvey and Max Scherzer. And by percentages, only Bartolo Colon threw the pitch more often last year. Of course he’s throwing it a ton, it’s working.
How has Cingrani thrived when everyone knows what is coming?
| 11:46 |
: Yes! I’m back!
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| 11:48 |
:
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| 11:48 |
: for some reason this video featured prominently in my Jamaican vacation.
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| 12:00 |
Hey Eno! My league’s first week of free agency is coming up and I need your guidance. I need to fill my UTIL spot and the best available options are Colabello, Solarte and Almonte. Thoughts on all three and who is most likely to remain a full-time starter in 2014? |
| 12:00 |
: ALMONTE! D at important position, right age, good enough swing (don’t love Solarte’s swing at all).
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| 12:00 |
What do you make of the current closing situations in Oakland and Detroit? Which reliever should we grab on each team if we’re looking for potential handcuffs to Johnson and Nathan? |
Perhaps due to schedule shenanigans, Arizona’s Chase Field has only been home to one Mark Trumbo home run this season. That’s fine. The park has already helped Trumbo become a better hitter.
If Corey Kluber’s road to the big leagues was long and winding, the reason for his recent success might be short and simple. One day, some time in 2011, the pitcher finally gave up on his four-seam fastball and started throwing a two-seamer. And now you have the current Corey Kluber. A contrite pitcher talking about a simple change doesn’t make for a long interview, but the Corey Kluber Process might be applicable to some other young pitchers around the league.
Take a look at how the Indians have handled phenom pitcher Danny Salazar the past couple of years and you instantly notice they’re doing things a little differently in Cleveland. From the long recovery time to the big innings jump, Salazar’s comeback from Tommy John surgery has been on a unique timeline. Salazar is happy to get the training wheels off this year, and before opening night, he talked with me about the long road back and some of the peculiarities of his teams’ approach.