It looks like Major League Baseball and Nippon Professional Baseball finally have agreed on changes to the posting system between their two bodies. Joel Sherman reports:
If you think wins are worth closer to seven million dollars a year, and that Curtis Granderson is a three-win player next year — reasonable assumptions, given the work of some, and the projections we have on our site — then giving him four years and $60 million is not a problem. It’s almost dead on. The problem comes when you realize that this is almost the exact same deal that the team gave Jason Bay. When he was two years younger. Mets’ fans might feel a chill go down their back right now, as I did when I heard the comparison.
Maybe the comparison won’t hold up to inspection, though.
The rumor mill was pretty sure the Pittsburgh Pirates would sign James Loney this week. This year’s version of Tampa’s continual reclamation project at first base has a longer history of above-replacement production than Casey Kotchman and Dan Johnson ever did. There does seem to be some buy-high risk, though. Maybe it’s not sexy to sign a guy that has the upside to be league average, but this Pirates team hasn’t seen an average first baseman since 2009’s version of Garrett Jones left the building, and he was the only once since 2001 to achieve that feat.
Coming off of a career-best season that also featured his full-season career-best batting average on balls in play, it’s tempting to say that James Loney is only average when luck fuels him. He’s not without his warts, that’s true. But when you add up the strengths and weaknesses, another average year is absolutely attainable for Loney. Especially in Pittsburgh.
| 11:44 |
: See you in fifteen!
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| 12:01 |
: Lyrics of the day from one of my favorite songs of all time, and not just because it comes from the modern Brian Eno:
Bear in mind Should be easy. |
| 12:01 |
Happy Repeal Prohibition Day, Eno! |
| 12:02 |
: Sometimes, kids, the government makes good decisions.
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| 12:02 |
Oh, cool. While convincing myself to love Will Smith, I found the Oliver five-year projections box on player pages. This changes … some things a little bit. |
| 12:02 |
: Those are pretty awesome.
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I imagine that, for a front office exec, there’s nothing quite like the buzz you get from picking up another team’s non-tender and getting value from that player. Maybe it’s just ‘one man’s ceiling is another man’s floor,’ but in a business where one sector of the market has to continually work to find value in surprising places, it’s an important moment.
But is there much success to be found in the bargain bin? These are players that their own team has given up on — and we have some evidence that teams know more about their own players than the rest of the league, and that players that are re-signed are more successful. What can we learn from the successes and failures that we’ve seen in the past?
To answer that question, I loaded all the non-tendered players since 2007 into a database and looked at their pre- and post-non-tender numbers.
Jhonny Peralta got four years and $52 million from the Cardinals to be their shortstop, or so reports Jon Morosi. That’s the longest contract given to a free agent after a suspension for performance-enhancing drugs — a fact that has made some in the game angry. But that’s only one of the reasons this signing is so interesting.
| 11:42 |
: See you at the top of the hour
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| 11:59 |
: Lyrics of the day are from a song dedicated to the simulations being run on the Rangers and Tigers right now
And I know I can leave in the night |
| 11:59 |
Please justify the Reds signing of Skip Schumaker with something other than he can play multiple positions (but not well)…and why two years? |
| 12:00 |
: I… I can’t. Well… it’s cheap! And he’s got a glove. I suppose it gives them leverage perhaps in negotiations: we HAVE a second baseman to backup Phillips, we don’t need a second baseman back. Or Skip is the backup plan to Billy Ham at second base…
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| 12:00 |
Thanks for the chat despite the busy day you got going on. |
| 12:01 |
: Oh man I want to write about three posts right now. Going to write YET ANOTHER post about THE TRADE.
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The news is breaking now. It seems that Josh Johnson has gotten $8 million dollars from the Padres to pitch in 2014, according to Jerry Crasnick. By itself, that is an interesting match — Johnson gets to go to the National League and reboot his value in a pitcher’s park, and the Padres get a high-variance player for a little bit more than the price of a win.
But then I heard a little nugget about the contract, seconds before my internet went out and Jeff Passan broke the news while I was mashing my keyboard frantically: The Padres get a $4 million option on Johnson in 2015 if he pitches fewer than seven starts in 2014. That little nugget contains multitudes.
It’s too bad it won’t be Roy Steele’s voice ringing this post’s title from on high — wherever the Athletics are playing — but the declaration itself does seem like more of a lock to happen eventually. Nineteen-year-old Addison Russell has had some doubters in the past. After playing his way to an all-star berth in the Arizona Fall League, the bat has successfully made fans at every stop.
The most interesting aspect of his play might be on the other side of the ball, though, where some feel his body type may move him off the position. After talking to the young man about his craft, though, and assessing his skillset and the values of his major league team, it seemed obvious to me that he’ll be a shortstop when he’s announced into the lineup for the first time in the big leagues.
| 11:42 |
: Here at noon! or nine am, if you live on the right coast.
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| 12:00 |
: Lyrics of the day from a band that sounds like an updated Beatles in a good way.
This time I’m just gonna take or I’m never gonna shake it, |
| 12:00 |
Left coast, Eno. Left coast. |
| 12:00 |
: Right as in correct.
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| 12:00 |
Guess I’m on the wrong coast….. |
| 12:01 |
: you and something like 85% of the population.
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