Author Archive

How Tommy John Surgery Helped George Kontos

Tommy John surgery might have been the best thing that could have happened to George Kontos. In 2009, the Giants’ right-hander was in Triple-A for the first time, and he had the kind of stuff that would make him a big leaguer in somebody’s bullpen: A 92-mph fastball and a wipeout slider that usually produced more than a strikeout per inning. That isn’t to say that he didn’t have some of the flaws inherent with a fastball/slider guy with only passable control, but he was well on his way. Then he felt that signature elbow pain, went under the knife, and a year and a half later, the reliever came out from the experience having changed two important facets of his game for the better.

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Eno Sarris Baseball Chat — 2/14/2013


Brandon Belt’s Turning Point

“I know we were playing Philadelphia, and I want to say we played the Dodgers after that. End of July some time. I kind of realized that, hey, you gotta help the team out somehow. … Sometimes you get lost out there, and you try to start playing to prove yourself, playing for yourself, however you want to say it, but if you go up there and remember that this is a team game, and you’re there for them, you’re going to play better personally in return.” — Brandon Belt

No matter how many player interviews you’ve read, this quote from Brandon Belt fits right in. There’s little to separate it from the post-game interviews that laud camaraderie and perseverance above strategy and nuance. That’s fine — admit too much and you’ve given your competition information. There is one aspect of this quote that might be a little different than most quotes, though. Belt basically provides the exact date on which his 2012 season turned for the better.

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Asking Ryan Vogelsong About His FIP

Asking a player how he’s over-performed his peripherals is a tricky thing. I settled on a toe in the water: “Have you ever heard of FanGraphs? WAR? FIP?” From Ryan Vogelsong’s responses to those inquiries at Giants’ Media day (“No, but Wins Above Replacement I have, all those stats, yeah” he replied), it seemed clear that the right-hander might need a little introduction to any sabermetric statistic I was going to ask him about.

“Given your strikeouts, walks, and ground balls, your FIP, which is usually more steady than ERA, has been higher than your ERA — you’ve been sort of over-performing these stats that people have come up with. I think this is really interesting because given your history, and given all that you’ve had to overcome, you’ve been under-rated in the past, too. Is there anything you can say about the way you pitch that might look like more than the sum of the parts? Is there something you play ‘up?’ How would you define yourself as a pitcher?”

It’s a wonder that Vogelsong had a reasoned, affable response to that mess. In fact, it’s a credit to the pitcher that he didn’t give this reporter the thousand-mile stare. I just asked him why his FIP has been almost three-quarters of a run higher than his ERA over the last two years.

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FanGraphs+ Player-Profile Game: Question #5

FanGraphs+ is here! And all week, we’ve been giving away free subscriptions to the service just for skips and skittles. And since it’s one o’clock Eastern — yes, my colleague Carson Cistulli has had considerable difficulty making the time, but that’s fine — that means it’s time for another edition of the vaunted FanGraphs+ Player-Profile Game!

I: post a profile — one of the 1100+ player profiles that FanGraphs+ offers — with important information redacted. You: guess what player the profile belongs to. Current subscribers are disqualified, and winning without leaderboard work is encouraged.

Today’s profile sprung forth from the magnificent mind of Mike Newman one day:

Sure, the tools are impressive, but [Player]’s baseball skills also need to develop. And with [Player] making his full-season debut in 2013, the center fielder is behind the learning curve with respect to refining those skills: [Player] struck out 30-plus percent of the time in the [minor leagues]. This, after undergoing an overhaul of his hitting mechanics. In dynasty formats, I’d be looking to sell [Player] immediately. Let another owner gamble on his upside. In moderately deep leagues, a shrewd owner might even cash out of [Player} and buy White Sox Trayce Thompson as a penny stock. In terms of talent, they are similar players. (Mike Newman)


Eno Sarris — Baseball Chat 2/7/13


FanGraphs+ Player-Profile Game: Question #3

Play the player-profile game again tomorrow — in this case, at 1:00pm ET. We’re giving away a free annual subscription to FanGraphs+ to the first reader who guesses correctly the identity of that day’s mystery player. (Limit one copy per customer).

FanGraphs+ is here, and it’s time for another edition of the Player-Profile game. Come on down!

If you can guess which player is the subject of the following player cap, without looking through your current subscription to FG+, you can win a braaaaand new caaaaaar! Or a subscription to FG+. Yeah that second thing. You can’t have a car.

From the mind of Michael Barr, and yes we’re making this one tougher, you guys are too good at this:

The ball seems to detonate out of [Player]’s hand. He has a delivery that’s anything but smooth, yet watching him touch 100 mph looks pretty effortless. [Player] doesn’t have a defined role other than late-inning reliever, but take a chance on him in holds leagues in case he settles into the eighth-inning guy. If he does, watch the strikeouts and holds pile up while you wait for his closing opportunity to arrive.


Giancarlo Stanton, The Loneliest Slugger

The Marlins traded away a bunch of their players. They didn’t trade away Giancarlo Stanton, though, so someone will hit some home runs in Miami. Will he be the only one? The ZiPs projections for the Marlins came out last week and they suggest he’ll really be the only power source in Miami this year. It even looks like he could be legendarily lonely.

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FanGraphs+ Is Here

Here at FanGraphs, you are treated with a smorgasbord of baseballery. From research on aging curves to in-depth mustache analysis, the pages are filled with the base and ball dreams of a true diamond-level nerd.

And so it’s true of our premium product that all the different parts of baseball are represented. Ostensibly, the ‘annual’ portion of FanGraphs+ is fantasy-baseball-centered, but that doesn’t mean that your average non-roto baseball lover won’t find something to enjoy. Take Dan Wade’s investigation into reaching on error as a skill. Or Jeff Zimmerman looking at adjustment times for position players switching leagues. Hey, even if you hate closers, you might be interested in Jack Moore’s attempt to predict closer changes with a stat found on our leaderboards. And with the purchase of FanGraphs+, you’ll also get free access to the analysis we provide ESPNInsider on a weekly basis.

NotGraphs? Our staff painstakingly produced 1113 player caps. There are only 750 players on opening day rosters, and even with our near-200 prospect caps — which, by the way, are full of observations from Marc Hulet, Mike Newman, Jason Catania, J.D. Sussman and others — that leaves almost 200 players that probably shouldn’t get a player cap. Enter the wit of our glorious Notters, who will leave little nuggets of laughter for you on the unexpected player page. You’ll leave with a smile on your face and a question in your heart: Why was I looking at Vincente Padilla’s player page anyway?

And yes, it’s also a fantasy product. Later this week, we’ll give you Auction Values on the projections leaderboards. Chad Young already gave ottoneu players auction values for all scoring settings. Between Michael Barr, Mike Podhorzer and I, you’re set in preparing for your draft, no matter what style it is. And then there are the rookies! Marc Hulet gets the top-notch ones, Carson Cistulli rummages through the bargain bin, and Chris Cwik tells you why you shouldn’t care about any of them.

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FanGraphs+ is Back

FanGraphs+ never went away — we update it throughout the year with content posted on ESPN Insider — but it’s time for the annual. We’ll be publishing the full FG+ arsenal in just over a week.

Once again, we’ll have over 1000 player capsules, sussing the fantasy value of everything from the studdiest stud to the LOOGYiest LOOGY. This year, we’ll add auction values to those capsules, and FG+ subscribers will see those values on the projections leaderboards. And below you’ll see our table of contents — all long, research-driven and analysis-heavy pieces that walk the line between fantasy and real baseball work.

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