Generally speaking, the small samples sizes of playing time makes it particularly difficult to track trends in the stat-lines of relievers over a few seasons. After all, how do we know the numbers are not going through anything more than random fluctuations? When a slew of metrics tend to flock in the same direction over a predetermined period of time, it stands to reason that the pitcher has made significant strides in his abilities. One would think that such an improvement might add the pitcher to the list of elite relievers, but some are occasionally overlooked in spite of their success due to a lack of a reputation.

In 2005, Chad Qualls was a very reliable reliever for the Houston Astros, posting a solid 3.28 ERA and 3.75 FIP in 79.2 innings. His efforts were largely overshadowed by the three headed monster that was Roger Clemens–Roy Oswalt–Andy Pettitte and a fantastic season from Brad Lidge. The next season, his K/9 fell from 6.78 to 5.68 with a rise in BB/9 from 2.60 to 2.84. Qualls allowed more homers as well, increasing his ERA to 3.76 and his FIP to 4.50. Despite logging nine more frames, Qualls lost a half of a win, dropping from 0.7 to 0.2 wins above replacement.

After the disappointing 2006 campaign, Qualls reverted to previously established norms with his pitch selection and threw his fastball 61 percent of the time; only throwing fastballs and sliders, Qualls had jumped to 68 percent with the heater in the year before. Both the fastball and slider were delivered at slightly greater velocities as well, and Qualls looked like a completely different pitcher.

His strikeout rate rose substantially from 5.68 to 8.49 and he cut back on walks as well. Qualls increased his O-Swing from 26% to 35% while reducing contact made on these pitches from 48% to 40%. Hitters were fooled by his pitches and could not muster as much contact as they had done before. Following a trade to the Diamondbacks for Jose Valverde before the 2008 campaign, Qualls continued the late inning dominance, putting up a 2.81 ERA and 2.77 FIP in 73.2 innings. His strikeout rate again jumped, this time to 8.67, but more significantly, Qualls reduced his BB/9 from 2.72 to 2.20.

Combined with a drastic dropoffs in HR/9 from 1.09 to 0.49, Qualls added two whole wins to the Diamondbacks, a mark only the elite relievers tend to hover around. This season, Qualls has again exhibited improvements in his controllable skills, jumping to a 9.86 K/9 and shaving more walks to the tune of a 1.71 BB/9. Though he still throws nothing more than a fastball and slider, and his fastball has been delivered much more frequently lately, Qualls boasts a 2.29 FIP through 21 innings. At 0.7 wins already, he is well on pace to repeat or surpass last season’s career bests.

Much of his success is derived from keeping the ball on the ground, evident in his career groundball rate of 59 percent. This season, however, Qualls has allowed 56 balls to be put in play and an astounding 73.2 percent (41 total) have been worm-beaters. He holds a substantial league lead in that department, but would fall to 35th since 1954 if the rate can be sustained. The highest groundball rate for a pitcher with at least 35 games pitched belongs to Chad Bradford, in 2001, when he induced 80.8% of his balls in play to be put on the ground.

ZiPS likes Qualls to regress in his controllable skills as the season bears on, but I would also tend to think his high BABIP, currently inflating his ERA, will also regress. These regressions might not cancel each other out, but given his recent track record of improvements, the evidence suggests that Qualls would gravitate more closely to the 2.29 FIP than to the 3.43 ERA. Regardless, Qualls has turned himself into a high strikeout, low walk, groundball pitcher and is further cementing himself as an elite reliever in the making, if not one already. The reputation isn’t there yet but the numbers certainly suggest that the Diamondbacks have at least one consistent stud in the bullpen.

When a good player hangs up his cleats, be it of his own volition or a lack of offers, a good chunk the baseball analysis community tends to forget everything they know, gravitating towards the Hall of Fame extremes. Either a player is or isn’t worthy of Cooperstown enshrinement. It does not matter that the writers spent countless words evaluating the subtle nuances of his performance over the years or just how valuable he was to a team, because he either played well enough to get into the Hall of Fame, or he didn’t. I’m not sure how or when this all occurred, but it is quite bothersome considering that the players who do not get in are generally forgotten unless they stick around as coaches or took part in controversies, like those involving drugs.

Sure, I might see Evan Longoria’s torrid RBI pace (yes, I know RBIs are not that important, keep your saber-snark in your pants) to start the season and remark about the incredible offensive years from Juan Gonzalez at the turn of the century, but Juan-Gone is nothing but a footnote these days. Sadly, I fear that Jim Edmonds is in store for a similar fate, not based on his actual career accomplishments but rather the perception of what constitutes a Hall of Fame player.

Edmonds played for 16 seasons, and realistically should be playing right now given the outfield situation of at least the Braves, and likely a few others. Despite a reputation for being particularly fragile, he did manage to surpass the 400 PA plateau in all but three of his seasons. Since he became a full-time starter in 1995, and our win value data extends back to 2002, I am going to call upon Rally’s Baseball Projection site for the pertinent WAR numbers, an appropriate choice given that Edmonds began his career with the Angels. Early on, Edmonds developed a reputation for being a tremendous fielder, a reputation occasionally matched by the numbers; statistically he was not as solid as he looked but he sure was fun to watch.

The defensive reputation also overshadowed his offensive contributions. From 1995-98, his first four full seasons, Edmonds averaged 28 home runs, a .360 OBP and ranged from .371-.404 in wOBA. Fuse his offense and defense together with a mix of positional adjustment and value above replacement and Edmonds put up WAR marks of 6.2, 4.8, 4.1 and 4.2. He missed significant time in 1999 and found himself a member of the St. Louis Cardinals as the 2000 season rolled around. This would mark the beginning of Edmonds’ peak, when his 1995-98 maximum WAR of 6.2 would look a tad on the low side.

From 2000-05, Edmonds averaged 35 home runs, never hitting fewer than 28. His OBP never fell lower than .385 and his wOBA ranged from .386-.436. According to Baseball Projection, here were his win values: 6.6, 6.3, 7.2, 7.5, 8.4, 6.9. His career declined following the 2005 season thanks to the wear and tear of playing such a demanding position as well as simple aging. Even at 38 years old, though, he might serve as an upgrade over a few starting outfielders.

What doesn’t bode well for Edmonds’ chances of making the hall are his good but not insane numbers in a fantastic offensive era, his defensive reputation overshadowing the solid offense, and that the bulk of his peak not only coincided with Scott Rolen’s, but also with the emergence of Albert Pujols. In fact, speaking of Pujols, as it currently stands, Rally’s site has Edmonds at 67.9 wins and Pujols at 67.8. Sure, Edmonds began getting regular playing time six years prior to Pujols’ debut, but to do in essentially 13 seasons what Pujols has done in eight is still incredibly impressive.

He might get bonus points for appearing clean relative to others throughout the era, which is dumb, but I digress. Edmonds had a pretty fantastic career and deserves to be more than simply a guy on the cusp of the hall that gets forgotten within ten years of being left off the ballot. If I had a vote, he would certainly garner my support, as he deserves to be remembered. What say you?

One of the best parts of having the Extra Innings baseball package is that I get the chance to consistently watch out of market teams. Sure, ESPN and FOX broadcast games every so often but I am a baseball junkie and need my fix just about every night. While recently utilizing the package to its fullest capacity, I came to the realization that the Florida Marlins have a really tall starting rotation. And I don’t mean tall in a relative form, as in tall compared to Jimmy Rollins, but tall in general.

Andrew Miller, one of the prized prospects acquired for Miguel Cabrera, is listed at 6’6″. Josh Johnson and Chris Volstad each check in at 6’7″. Lastly, Sean West, a recent callup whom Marc deemed the best pitching prospect in their farm system, stands a mighty 6’8″. These four guys, all of whom are currently full-time starters for the team, average 79.0 inches. Of course, pitchers like Anibal Sanchez and Ricky Nolasco weigh down the average, but it got me thinking – who were the tallest rotations in the Retrosheet era?

To be considered eligible for this study, a pitcher needed to make at least 10 starts in a season. Then, the averages were taken for all teams using all qualifying pitchers. The tallest average rotations of the last 55 years have been:

Seattle Mariners, 1993: 77.33 inches
Arizona Diamondbacks, 2008: 77.16 inches
Seattle Mariners, 1992: 77.15 inches
Cleveland Indians, 2003: 77.12 inches
Seattle Mariners, 1991: 77.05 inches

Incidentally, these were the only five teams with an average exceeding 77 inches, meaning that the average pitcher on their team to make at least 10 starts stood 6’5″. Randy Johnson clearly played a huge role in these rankings, even though I avoided using a weighted average. Johnson was a starter for all three of the Mariners teams as well as last year’s incarnation of the Diamondbacks.

In 1993, Johnson was joined by the 6’6″ Erik Hanson, so he at least had one tall compadre. The year before, Johnson and Hanson received height contributions from the 6’4″ Brian Fisher. In 1991, Johnson and Hanson were joined by the 6’5″ Bill Krueger and the 6’4″ Brian Holman.

The 2008 Diamondbacks featured all 6’10” of Johnson, 6’5″ from both Dan Haren and Micah Owings, and the 6’4″ Doug Davis. The 2003 Indians were led by the 6’7″ CC Sabathia but received plenty of starts from the 6’6″ Jason Davis and 6’5″ Jake Westbrook.

Interestingly, no team other than the 2008 Florida Marlins had four or more pitchers exceeding 6’5″ in a season in which they each made 10+ starts. Volstad, Johnson and Miller were there last season, but substitute Mark Hendrickson for Sean West. The Marlins might not have the tallest average, yet at least, but they certainly have the most tall pitchers consistently making starts over the last half-century.

Josh Willingham began his career with the Marlins, becoming an everyday starter in 2006. For three years, he posted remarkably consistent offensive numbers: wOBAs of .364, .365, and .363. Much like then teammate Hanley Ramirez, Willingham sandwiched a very poor UZR mark in 2007 with ratings that hovered around the league average. This past offseason, he was traded to the Nationals, along with Scott Olsen, in exchange for Emilio Bonifacio and a couple of prospects. Despite employing a glut of outfielders, the Nationals have been able to give Willingham 133 plate appearances this season, and boy has he responded.

Willingham is staying relatively true to his career marks with a .252 BA and .376 OBP, but has produced a .550 SLG so far that dwarfs his career .477 mark. The surge has helped his wOBA soar to a robust .393. Most of the total bases involved in the SLG calculation come from Willingham’s nine home runs, but there is something much more interesting about those dingers – they are all solo home runs!

Nine home runs, all solo, which makes his 9 HR-12 RBI line quite comical. Curious about the nature and frequency of solo homers, I tallied the number of solo dingers in my database for each player-season, divided by the total home runs hit and determined the solo home run percentages. To find the leaders and trailers for all players since 1954, it really depends on the floors set.

For instance, of anyone with at least 15 total home runs in a season, Ken Singleton has the record for highest solo percentage at 1.000, as he went a perfect 15-15 in 1975 for the Orioles. On the flipside, Tom Brunansky went 1-16 in 1990, a 0.0625 rate. How about if we adjust the minimum to 20?

Curtis Granderson launched 23 longballs in 2007, but 21 were solo homers. In fact, many of the leaders in solo homer percentage were leadoff hitters, which makes intuitive sense given that a leadoff home run comes with nobody on base, and that they might come to the plate with the bases empty less often with poor hitters in front of them. Behind Grandy is Dave Winfield, who went 18-20 in 1974 with the Padres. At the bottom of the list is Greg Luzinski, who went 3-21 in 1976, a 0.143 percentage. When we make a subtle adjustment from a minimum of 15 to a minimum of 20, the lowest percentage jumps from 6.3% to 14.3%.

Toby Harrah tops the list with a minimum of 25 homers, when he went 22-25 in 1982 for the Indians. Behind him is Bobby Bonds, who went 22-26 in 1970. At the bottom of the list: Frank Thomas (not the White Sox guy) in 1956 for the Pirates went 5-25, and Hank Aaron went 8-38 in 1970. Kevin Youkilis had one of the lowest percentages last season, as only eight of his 29 home runs were of the solo variety.

How about if we place the minimum at 40 home runs? Of the 239 player-seasons, nobody had a higher solo percentage than Richard Hidalgo, who hit 35 solo home runs out of 44 total in 2000. Barry Bonds could have tied Hidalgo but decided to hit one more total home run with runners on in 2003, when he went 35-45. The lowest such percentage belongs to Bonds’ godfather, Willie Mays, who hit 14 solo homers out of 51 total in 1955. Recently, Alex Rodriguez went 18-54 in 2007, the same year in which Ryan Howard went 17-47. Howard also went 22-48 last year.

What makes Willingham’s “feat” all the more interesting is his spot in the lineup as well as the team for which he plays. Josh generally hits fifth for the Nationals, behind such on-base luminaries as Nick Johnson, Ryan Zimmerman and Adam Dunn. That he has not hit a home run with any of these guys on base is particularly mind-boggling. He projects to finish the season with 23 home runs, which would put him in Granderson territory if he can keep up this solo pace.

One of the issues that arises when writing a weekly feature like this is how the more recent games tend to stand out. I have made a conscious effort to make notes about potential games of the week each day but it seems that the winners so far have all gravitated towards the weekend. Not this week, however, when the top game occurred on Monday, Memorial Day, and left little doubt in my mind about its status as the recipient of this week’s honor. On Monday, the Indians hosted the Rays and made sure their home turf went unsoiled.

The Rays were cruising to a victory until the end of the game, when the road apparently became the Nitro rollercoaster at Six Flags and the Indians saw their win expectancy rise from the ashes and soar upwards. How did this happen? Ask Grant Balfour, Dale Thayer, Randy Choate and Jason Isringhausen, all of whom managed to squander a 10-2 lead held by the Rays as the eighth inning began.

Fausto Carmona continued to convince people his solid 2007 was nothing more than a fluke by surrendering five runs in the second inning, lasting just 1.1 frames. Jensen Lewis relieved Carmona but did not provide fans of the Tribe any relief, giving up a two-run jimmy-jack to Gabe Gross in the third inning. A Carlos Pena single, Ben Zobrist double, and Dioner Navarro hit by pitch with the bases loaded later, the Rays led 10-0 in the fourth inning.

Ryan Garko launched a two-run homer in the bottom of the inning, and a whole lot of nothing would transpire until the eighth. Dale Thayer entered the game and was promptly greeted by three straight singles off the bats of Shin-Soo Choo, Mark DeRosa, and Ryan Garko. With the bases loaded and nobody out, the Indians win expectancy remained a miniscule 1.9%. Matt LaPorta grounded into a double play, scoring Choo but decreasing their likelihood of winning to 0.3%. Ben Francisco singled in DeRosa before the inning ended, leaving the score at 10-4 in favor of the Rays, entering the ninth.

Jeremy Sowers made it through the top half of the inning unharmed and then the fun began. Or, for Rays fans, then the heartburn began. Thayer, still in the game, walked Grady Sizemore before inducing a flyout from Victor Martinez. Jhonny Peralta followed with a single, advancing Sizemore to second base. Randy Choate relieved Thayer, and despite getting Choo to ground the ball to shortstop, a fielders choice and error later, the score was 10-5 with two runners on and one out. Grant Balfour entered the game and got DeRosa to line out to third, leaving the Indians with a 0.7% win expectancy.

You all probably know where this is going. Despite a win expectancy below 1%, with two outs, the Indians managed to plate six more runners and win the contest. Following DeRosa, Garko hit his second homer of the game, a three-run blast off of Balfour, bringing the score to 10-8. Still, with two outs, the Indians were only considered to have a 1.7% chance of winning. After walking Asdrubal Cabrera, Joe Maddon turned to Isringhausen.

Izzy walked Ben Francisco and Jamey Carroll to load the bases, and then perhaps in the hope of staying consistent, walked Grady Sizemore. 10-9, 28% chance of winning. Victor Martinez then singled two runners in the Indians put the final touches on a monumental comeback. Without question, the top game last week.

On Tuesday, Orioles GM Andy MacPhail was quoted as saying: “It’s time. He’s ready.” The he of course is Matt Wieters, the best prospect in the game, one of the most hyped in quite some time, and a top-tier major league catcher before ever swinging a bat at the big league level. MacPhail acknowledged that Wieters had proven himself enough in the minors and would be called up by the end of the week. Well, that day is today, when the Orioles stud backstop is finally unleashed on the league.

I couldn’t help but laugh when reading MacPhail’s quote, picturing a sinister film score in the background with the GM dramatically raising his head while speaking for effect. Then the scene would cut to a laboratory where Wieters roared, snapped all of the cords connecting him to monitoring devices, and proceeded to punch his way through the walls with nothing but raw strength. That may be going too far, but with all of the expectations and hype surrounding this guy, he sounds like a genetically engineered baseball machine, perhaps what happens if you splice together DNA from Albert Pujols and Joe Mauer, and add in a dash of Jack Morris-clutchiness.

Back on April 30, Marc wrote here about Wieters’ performance, noting that his .267/.382/.378 line in 45 AB in Triple A came off as underwhelming compared to his past performance. After all, in A-ball last season Wieters hit .345/.448/.576 for a .445 wOBA. He moved up to Double A and mashed his way to a .365/.460/.625 line and a .472 wOBA.

Wieters has certainly turned things around since the end of April, as his current line now reads: .305/.387/.504 with a .391 wOBA. The power numbers are a tad depressed and the .383 BABIP from a season ago has regressed to .358, but the backstop is more than ready to feast on major league pitching. Expectations will loom large here and so I’m urging all of those anxious to see what Wieters can do to avoid buying too much stock in his first few games. I don’t care if he goes 11-11 with four walks and nine home runs, or if he ends up striking out seven times while going 0-10. Let things play out a bit before issuing any sort of judgment.

Regardless, the time has come, and now we finally get to see what this kid might be capable of.

In 2007, Phillies first baseman Ryan Howard set the single season record with 199 strikeouts. Last season, he matched his record breaking season with 199 more, but moved into second place on the all time list. Mark Reynolds, third baseman for the Diamondbacks, whiffed on 204 different occasions, “besting” Howard. Two months into the 2009 season and Reynolds, despite continuing to fan at a ridiculously high rate, actually has some competition for the throne of punchout king.

Chris Davis of the Rangers is only 23 years old and appears to combine slick glovework with raw power. When he connects with a pitch, the ball travels great distances. Already with 12 home runs, Davis has begun to establish himself as a significant slugging threat. Davis has, however, a huge weakness so far in that he is seemingly allergic to actually making contact with the ball. In 170 plate appearances and 158 at bats, Davis has struck out 71 times so far, a rate of 44.9 percent. 44.9 percent! Of his official at bats, Davis almost has a 50/50 shot of striking out.

Since 1999, only one player has finished a season with a strikeout percentage exceeding 40 percent: Jack Cust. In 2007, Cust struck out in 41.5 percent of his bats and shaved fifty basis points off of that rate last season, dropping to 41 percent. There have not even been that many different players to strikeout in at least 30 percent of their at bats over the last ten seasons. With Cust, there have been 40 player-seasons with a strikeout rate greater than or equal to 30 percent. That number is a tad deceiving though, since several players are repeat offenders.

Six of those seasons belong to Adam Dunn and another six to Jim Thome. Jose Hernandez and Ryan Howard each own three of those seasons with Cust, Preston Wilson, Jim Edmonds, Mark Bellhorn, Brad Wilkerson, Carlos Pena and Mike Cameron each owning two. In actuality, only 19 unique players have accomplished this feat, if we can call it one. Suffice it to say, Davis is currently performing in uncharted territory.

His plate discipline numbers are equally odd, straying heavily from the league average:

Davis O-Swing=   35.9%, League O-Swing=   24.3%
Davis O-Contact= 51.2%, League O-Contact= 62.5%
Davis Z-Swing=   76.1%, League Z-Swing=   65.7%
Davis Z-Contact= 60.9%, League Z-Contact= 87.6%
Davis Contact=   57.3%, League Contact=   80.6%

The standard deviations amongst qualifying players, and the number of SDs from the mean Davis has strayed are below:

Stat        SD     Davis-SDs
O-Swing     0.058     2.00
O-Contact   0.106     1.06
Z-Swing     0.064     1.63
Z-Contact   0.056     4.77
Contact     0.065     3.58

Other than contact made on pitches out of the zone, Davis has strayed substantially from the league average, numbers that will have to improve if he wants to hold down a major league starting job. A major league first baseman can succeed with a low batting average if he supplies ample amounts of power, but a .203/.259/.456 line isn’t getting it done, even with a league best glove to date. In spite of the fielding prowess and 12 long balls, Davis has been worth just 0.1 wins this year, essentially the definition of a replacement player.

Again, he is only 23 years old and should improve with more experience, but the strikeouts and plate discipline stats have certainly raised red flags. The news isn’t all bad for Reynolds, though, as Davis projects to improve with whiffs over the remainder of the season, finishing with 195. At 204, Reynolds’ record for single season strikeouts would be safe should this come to fruition, but Davis has certainly been fanning at an historic pace.

Earlier this week, Dave discussed Justin Verlander’s solid stretch of performance lately, noting that it had been on par with, if not better than, any stretch belonging to Zack Greinke. Because Verlander opened the season rather poorly, his overall numbers are not as aesthetically pleasing as the Royals righty, but he has certainly found his groove. Another pitcher, however, is currently in the midst of a fantastic stretch to open his season. The numbers of this pitcher might get overlooked, though, considering the substantial gap between starts.

Chris Carpenter made two starts in April, hit the disabled list with an injury caused from batting, and made two more starts over the last ten days. Carp has looked dominant in all four outings, accruing the following line: 23 IP, 10 H, 0 ER, 4 BB, 23 K. Four starts and a 1.1 win value that practically doubles the total wins he has added in 2007 and 2008, when he made a grand total of five appearances. Hitters have managed a mere .127/.169/.152 line with a .193 BABIP, which has certainly fueled his microscopic 0.61 WHIP.

What prevents Carpenter from truly topping stretches put forth by Verlander and Greinke is his innings total. Carpenter has averaged a 71 Game Score through his first four starts, which, while impressive in any fashion, actually falls below all of the top stretches from Verlander and Greinke. Here are the top three from Greinke:

4/8-4/24: 29 IP, 36/6 K/BB, 0.00 ERA, 76 GSC, .186/.239/.245
4/18-5/4: 34 IP, 38/3 K/BB, 0.53 ERA, 80 GSC, .176/.197/.244
4/24-5/9: 33 IP, 33/3 K/BB, 0.82 ERA, 78 GSC, .161/.181/.232

And the top three from Verlander:

4/27-5/14: 29.1 IP,  44/8 K/BB, 0.92 ERA, 77 GSC, .157/.225/.186
5/3- 5/20: 28.1 IP, 43/10 K/BB, 1.27 ERA, 76 GSC, .126/.217/.158
5/8- 5/25: 28.1 IP,  40/7 K/BB, 0.95 ERA, 75 GSC, .155/.212/.175

Carpenter’s opposing slash line bests all six of these stretches, as does his WHIP, but Verlander and Greinke were able to go deeper on average into the games. Still, finishing seventh on this list in terms of the quality of the four game stretch is not anything to frown about.

The success of the Cardinals is certainly married to the production levels of Albert Pujols and Ryan Ludwick, but Carpenter stabilizes the starting rotation and adds a proven ace to the mix. If he cannot stay healthy, the team is not very likely to reach the postseason. Even with his services for 25 or so starts they may struggle to play into October. Though the debate was not as controversial as with Joba Chamberlain, many opined that Carpenter would better serve the Cardinals as their closer this season given the departure of Jason Isringhausen and the likelihood that either Chris Perez or Jason Motte would man the position.

As per usual, starters are more valuable than relievers; the only way making Carpenter the closer would be valid from a statistical standpoint is if he projected to be a below average starter with a relief projection akin to the production levels of Mariano Rivera and Brad Lidge from a year ago. If the decision to have Carpenter close out games was instead derived from the hope that he would remain healthy for a longer period of time, it still smells funny. In four starts, Carpenter has added more wins to the Cardinals than their entire bullpen. If you’re skeptical, the combo of Motte, Franklin, Thompson, Miller, Reyes, Kinney and Boggs (as a reliever) has combined for 0.5 wins above replacement. This speaks more to the ineptitude of their bullpen but serves to show that a good starter in just four starts can be twice as effective, if not more, than a reliever available all season. Plus, who knows how Carpenter would perform in the bullpen or if the supposed lesser workload would prevent injuries?

Due to the gap in time between his starts, Carpenter’s start to the 2009 season is bound to go overlooked, but if he cobbles together a few more incredible outings, it will be impossible to look past his contributions.

Nothing annoys me more with regards to baseball than seeing pitchers who have clearly lost all semblances of effectiveness still given opportunities to throw at the major league level (SEE: Sidney Ponson). However, I considered it to be a good deal when the Washington Nationals signed Daniel Cabrera this past offseason. After all, the commitment to Cabrera did not extend beyond the 2009 season and they would be paying him just $2.6 mil. All sorts of questions surrounding his health and abilities surfaced at the time of the signing but it seemed that the Nationals were willing to risk that Cabrera’s arm would hold up for at least one more year.

Nine games in, the plug has been pulled on the experiment. Cabrera has been designated for assignment after abysmally bad production. In fact, acting GM Mike Rizzo did not sugarcoat his thought process on the matter, saying specifically – “I was tired of watching him.”

In 40 innings of work, Cabrera surrendered 48 hits, walked 35, and managed just 16 strikeouts. No, that isn’t an error on my part, mixing up the walk and strikeout totals. Cabrera fanned 3.6 batters per nine with a 7.9 walk rate. His .313 BABIP did not necessarily portend insanely bad luck but a 2.08 WHIP coupled with a 57% strand rate isn’t going to do anything other than drive fans and executives crazy. With a 5.85 ERA and 6.44 FIP, the Nationals reached their breaking point and cut ties with the tall righthander.

Something is clearly wrong with Cabrera, as pitchers do not just magically lose four or five miles per hour on their fastball in under two seasons. If he has any hope of pitching in the majors, the health issues need to be rectified. A 0.46 K/BB is inexcusable at the major league level, even for the Nationals. Cabrera’s pitch selection should have been scrutinized more as well. You don’t throw a fastball with average of worse movement almost 70% of the time if it isn’t 93+ mph. Cabrera seemed to be sticking to his old guns, so to speak, even though the ammo had run out long ago.

Even in a penny-pinching market like the one experienced last season, I cannot fathom any team bringing him aboard at this point unless his health problems are resolved. A good pitching coach can teach a new pitch or potentially show a few mechanical pointers to increase velocity by fractions of miles per hour, but nobody can snap his fingers and provide what Cabrera currently lacks. For a few years, Cabrera was like the jerk boyfriend that all girls think they can change with a bit of guidance. Unfortunately for those who spent a great deal of time attempting to streamline the transition, it seems that the problems were not mechanical or mental, really, but physical.

I could see Cabrera having some sort of surgery and resurfacing in a couple of years like Kris Benson did, but his window as a young stud prospect bound for success if he corrects a few minor flaws has closed. Thankfully, nobody, including Rizzo, will have to watch this incarnation of Cabrera any more this season.

Matt Holliday and Nick Swisher had very different 2008 campaigns, with the former producing his third consecutive season with a wOBA north of .400 and the latter suffering from the BABIP flu, hitting just .219/.332/.410. With only a year remaining on his contract and slim chances that he would resign, the Rockies sent Holliday to the Athletics. Swisher joined the Yankees roster in exchange for Wilson Betemit and two prospects following several verbal bouts with White Sox manager Ozzie Guillen. Entering this season, both players had something to prove: that Swisher’s .251 BABIP leading to a .325 wOBA was a fluke and that Holliday could post solid offensive numbers without the assistance of Coors Field.

Through their first ten games, Swisher became a Yankees legend and confirmation biases reigned supreme with regards to Holliday’s “inability” to hit on the road:

Games 1-10
Swisher: .406/.486/1.000
Holliday: .278/.333/ .444

Then Swisher cooled substantially, bringing his numbers a bit closer to Earth. Meanwhile, Holliday got on base less often and exhibited diminished power:

Games 11-20
Swisher: .211/.362/.368
Holliday: .262/.311/.405

Over their next ten games, Holliday’s batting average and slugging percentage resembled Swisher’s in the above span, but he did not get on base nearly as often. Swisher took some walks and, despite not recording an abundance of hits, those that did add to his seasonal total were generally of the extra base variety:

Games 21-30
Swisher: .200/.359/.533
Holliday: .211/.318/.368

As you can imagine, after thirty games, many were convinced that Swisher had found his stroke and that Holliday would prove to be a bust as an Athletic.

Game 31-Present
Swisher: .119/.269/.190
Holliday: .342/.468/.526

In their most recent stretches, Holliday has closely resembled the MVP candidate witnessed in Colorado while Swisher put up Nick Punto-esque numbers (.181/.290/198 in 2009). When all of these stretches are combined, Swisher is hitting .225/.360/.493 while Holliday sits at .264/.350/.421. Ignoring batting average, Swisher is still in the midst of a bounce back season with a .369 wOBA matching his output from 2006, when he launched 35 home runs. Unfortunately, Swisher’s BABIP has not regressed, resting at .256. It will be incredibly difficult to sustain this type of performance with a BABIP so low, but his BA does not paint an accurate performance portrait at all.

Holliday has improved over his last ten or so games, but that seasonal line is still lacking. To date, his closest slash line comp is Skip Schumaker of the Cardinals, certainly not company Holliday is accustomed to keeping. The season still has legs, but even with ZiPS projecting better performance out of the former Rockies star, his poor performance so far has definitely affected his true talent level. Should the ZiPS projections come to fruition, Holliday would finish the season hitting .279/.359/.458, numbers that have consistently garnered employment for Raul Ibanez but not what we have come to expect from Holliday. Then again, Matt could pick up steam, continue this torrid stretch, and make people forget he ever struggled. The change of scenery may have helped Swisher enjoy himself more and potentially start anew, but it has worked in the opposite way for Holliday.