The offseason for the Atlanta Braves was highlighted by the 4-yr deal given to Derek Lowe and shadowed with controversy surrounding deals with Rafael Furcal and Ken Griffey Jr that never came to fruition. Hidden amongst the headlines, their second best move involved trading for Javier Vazquez of the Chicago White Sox.

Vazquez has been written about here on several occasions, primarily due to the fact that he has been the most frustrating pitcher in recent memory. He routinely posts incredible peripherals and marks of controllable skills yet often sees his ERA soar much higher than his FIP. A return to the more pitcher-friendly senior circuit, in theory, could be the cure for such frustration.

Entering Monday’s game against the Mets, Vazquez had toed the rubber on five different occasions, pitching 32 very effective innings. In his time on the mound, Vazquez had issued just eight free passes, fanned 42 hitters, and kept his ERA down to a very solid 3.38. Having allowed just one home run, coupled with the K/BB north of 5.0, Javy’s FIP stood at an incredible 1.70.

He is usually right around a 40% flyball rate/38% groundball rate but had surrendered a pretty penny of line drives right around the corner of 30%. Those line drives will be displaced by flyballs, some of which are going to leave the yard, normalizing both the LD- and HR/FB-rates in the process. Two of those balls left the yard last night against the Mets as Vazquez performed in his typical frustrating fashion.

Javy threw first pitch strikes to 18 of the first 21 hitters he faced and looked dominant. Speeds were mixed, pinpoint control decided to attend his arsenal, and command did not elude the righty. In the sixth inning, Javy sported a 3-0 lead. As dominant as he had looked, I figured this was a sure thing. A quick check of my e-mail and channel flip with the remote later, the Mets had taken a 4-3 lead on the heels of two-run homers from Carlos Beltran and David Wright.

Last night’s game sums up Vazquez’s career perfectly: he looks dominant 85% of the time, leading many to scratch, no, claw their heads as to why he is not a perennial award contender, and allows enough damage in that remaining 15% to inflate his overall numbers.

Whew… this sure turned out to be an interesting week filled with some tremendously entertaining matchup. On Monday, the Phillies came back from an 11-7 deficit in the eighth inning to win 13-11 against the Nationals. Tuesday saw the White Sox and Mariners engage in a solid doubleheader, the first game of which took all of 17 minutes to play and the second of which saw firsthand the dominance of Felix Hernandez. On Wednesday, Yovani Gallardo beat the Padres… literally… as he pitched eight shutout innings of two-hit ball while accounting for the lone run of the game with a solo home run.

Fast forward to Sunday and several more games staked claim as potential winners for this week’s honor. Scott Baker took a no-hitter into the seventh inning against the Royals before getting rocked; the Twins would lose 7-5. Barry Zito looked vintage, recording a no-decision while holding the Rockies scoreless over seven innings. The winner, however, is the Athletics-Mariners matchup yesterday in which the Ms walked off on a single in the bottom of the fifteenth frame.

Chris Jakubauskas, coming off of a two-hit loss in the aforementioned swiftly played game against the White Sox, opposed Josh Outman in this instant classic. Things started out roughly for the Jakulantern as both Ryan Sweeney and Orlando Cabrera singled to start off the first inning. As Jason Giambi stepped up to the plate, the leverage index clocked in at 1.82. The average leverage index for the entire game was 1.88, meaning that the standard for this game featured a fair amount of stress.

Matt Holliday grounded out, scoring Sweeney, before Jack Cust launched a two-run homer, giving the As a 3-0 lead right out of the gate. From that point until the bottom of the fourth inning, nothing truly noteworthy happened, with a mere two plate appearances exceeding 1.0 on the leverage index scale. Following a Jose Lopez single in that bottom of the fourth, Mike Sweeney put the Mariners on the scoreboard with a two-run homer. The As added another run in the next half-inning and the score stayed stagnant at 4-2 in favor of Beane’s Bunch until the bottom of the seventh.

Ichiro Suzuki knocked in the third run for the Mariners in the seventh, bringing them within one run of the Athletics, but time was running out. Russ Springer came into close the game out, but things didn’t go as planned, as Kenji Johjima knotted the game at 4-4 with a solo home run. The situation grew more tense for Springer as Franklin Gutierrez and Yuniesky Betancourt each followed with singles. One out, runners on first and second, bottom of the ninth… and Springer managed to escape without any further damage.

Fast forward to the top of the thirteenth inning, with Miguel Batista on the mound for the Mariners. Landon Powell stepped into the batters box with runners on the corners and one out, and doubled both in, giving the As a 6-4 lead in the process. Orlando Cabrera knocked Powell in soon thereafter, increasing the lead to 7-4. In the bottom of the thirteenth, Bob Geren was counting on Gio Gonzalez to finish things off, unlike Springer.

Unfortunately, Gonzalez had been in the game for four previous innings and he, too, could not hold the lead, surrendering runs on three straight plate appearances: a bases loaded walk, a force out, and an rbi single. After thirteen frames, the score remained tied, this time at seven runs apiece. The game finally drew to a close in the bottom of the fifteenth, when Jose Lopez singled in Franklin Gutierrez off of Dana Eveland, with runners on the corners. Unlike the middle innings of the game, the extra frames saw a select few plate appearances feature a leverage index below 1.40.

Though an Alfonseca-handful of games could have qualified for this week’s honors, the constant back and forth deep into the world of extra innings between the As and Ms takes the cake.

Throughout the offseason I wrote three separate posts here discussing the idea of the Phillies signing Raul Ibanez to man leftfield everyday. My feelings were not ambiguous in the least: as both a Phillies fan and an analyst, I did not support the move for several reasons. Ibanez was essentially just as poor as Pat Burrell on the defensive front, did not produce enough offensively to overcome these defensive shortcomings, and would begin his Phillies tenure at 36 years old. On top of that, the contractual terms of three years at a dollar figure in excess of $30 mil just seemed like way too much of a commitment.

This April, Ibanez hit .359/.433/.718, with seven dingers and a .487 wOBA. Defensively, he has a +2.5 UZR rating in 20 games out in leftfield. All told, Ibanez produced +1.5 wins, over 60 percent of the +2.3 wins he recorded last season. Despite his sheer awesomeness in the opening month of the season, my stance has not changed and I once again feel compelled to reiterate the difference between disliking a player and disliking a transaction or acquisition.

I have no issues with Raul Ibanez as a person. He seems like a good guy for this type of Phillies team and his numbers this month have instilled confidence in just about every Phillies fan. At the time of the signing, my pessimistic sentiments stemmed more from the contractual terms and the process of the move as opposed to the player brought in. Though the severity of the depressed free agent economy could not necessarily have been predicted, the beginning of the offseason did have a different feel and several analysts suggested that the commitments both monetarily and with roster space would not be as vast as years past.

Ibanez is not going to keep up this pace for the entire season. Dave Cameron got to watch him intently over the last several seasons and aptly summed the experience up by saying Ibanez will go on stretches during which he hits like Babe Ruth and performs average offensively in between these spurts. His defense also is not very likely to stay in the positive given his true talent level in this regard. It could, but a betting man would be wise to stick to the most probable outcome.

Overall, Ibanez has been incredible for the Phillies so far, but solely evaluating the product of a move and not the process is in no way the best analytical route to take. A combination of the two is really the most accurate since the product cannot be ignored but the process is at least equally important. Signing Ibanez to this deal when other similar players signed for very low-risk contracts was not wise from a financial standpoint.

He is not a bad player and I still root for him throughout each plate appearance, but while Ibanez has instilled confidence in fans thus far, GM Ruben Amaro did not instill the same confidence in at least this Phillies fan at the time of the signing.

Earlier this week, Dave discussed Padres SP Chris Young and his inability to hold runners, essentially claiming that the former basketball prospect is worse at holding runners than anyone else in baseball is at any other skill. The data certainly matches this accusation, as baserunners are 131-144 off of Young in his career, a 91% success rate. In 2007, Young was historically bad, allowing 44 steals with nary a runner being caught. It is easy to blame the catcher for not throwing runners out but this definitely says more about Young than his backstops.

Curious to see who else has had historically bad seasons I queried my Retrosheet database for all seasons since 1954 in which runners attempted at least 30 steals off of a particular pitcher with a success rate of at least the break-even mark of 75% and sorted by success rate. For the record, though pickoffs are factored into failed stolen base attempts, they are ignored for the purposes of this post.

Not surprisingly at all, Young’s 44-44 in 2007 topped the list. Right behind him is A.J. Burnett, also in 2007, who saw 31 runners successfully swipe bags without any being thrown out. These are the only two seasons that match the querying criteria featuring a 100% success rate.

Four different pitchers benefited from having just one runner gunned down: Dennis Eckersley (34-35) in 1977, Mark Clear (33-34) in 1983, Tim Wakefield (30-31) in 1996 and Dustin McGowan (29-30) in 2007.

That 2007 season does not look too good for pitchers and their ability to hold runners on. Not only does the season house three of the six worst seasons in the Retrosheet era but it also saw Greg Maddux allow 37 steals out of 39 attempts, along with Tim Wakefield and Jose Contreras exceeding the break-even point at 41-49 and 25-31 respectively.

Nine of the 20 worst seasons in this regard have occurred since 2000, while only one took place prior to 1960: Glen Hobbie allowed 30 steals in 32 attempts for the Cubs back in 1959. There are not many pitchers who appeared on several occasions on this list, likely due to the fact that they changed some aspect of their delivery to circumvent the issue.

The most frequent violators were Nolan Ryan (10), Greg Maddux (9), Dwight Gooden (7), Joe Niekro (7), Mike Krukow (6), Tim Wakefield (6), Dennis Eckersley (5), Tom Candiotti (5), Bert Blyleven (5), and Hideo Nomo (5). These pitchers were predominantly either knuckleballers, those with freakishly long windups or notorious for caring very little about the running game.

The numbers and reputations of some of these pitchers certainly suggests that success can still be obtained with no ability to control the running game but they comprise a very small sample of the amount of successful pitchers. Chris Young lacks the stuff of a Nolan Ryan, Greg Maddux and Dennis Eckersley, so he really needs to fix this problem because it is only a matter of time before runners truly exploit his flaw.

Ryan Zimmerman has been a bit of an offensive enigma in his young career, posting very solid numbers in his rookie campaign before taking steps backwards in seasons during which his age would call for improvements. After a .348 wOBA that almost earned him Rookie of the Year honors in 2006–some guy named Hanley Ramirez edged him out–Zimmerman has seen this same mark drop to .340 in 2007 and .336 last season. Though defensive ability has kept Zimmerman producing at a level well above the league average, his offensive decline had to be concerning for fans of the Nationals.

This season, however, Zimmerman got out of the gate quickly and is currently riding a 17-game hitting streak. Actually, he has gotten at least one hit in 18 of the 19 games played this season, only posting a donut in the hits column in the second game of the season. Entering last night’s game against the Phillies, Zimm’s +3.0 batting runs and +2.7 UZR had already bested his 2008 totals, combining for +0.9 wins. His wOBA stood at .379 with OBP and SLG marks closely resembling what most thought Zimmerman would reach by his third season.

In this 17-game hitting streak, Zimmerman is 23-73, with a .315/.383/.562 line. Entering the season, CHONE was more bullish on the third baseman than some of the other projection systems, calling for a .371 wOBA in 514 plate appearances. At .379 right now, CHONE basically sees Zimmerman capable of keeping up this level of performance in one way or another. The system projected his OBP/SLG to be around .364/.488 while the current numbers are .360/.526.

If his injuries have subsided, Zimmerman can continue to get on base at his current clip and his power does not regress too precipitously, there are very few reasons why he could not sustain a wOBA above .370. Coupled with solid defense in the +2 to +5 run range and we are talking about a +5 or more win player this season. Zimmerman, as Matthew recently noted, is definitely worth the money in his new extension and despite the small sample size comprising his performance this month, it is very exciting to see Zimmerman show signs of improving with the stick.

One of my biggest pet peeves involving baseball fandom is how we take the great players for granted and come to expect incredible performances instead of treasuring them. Newer players experiencing similarly solid campaigns or players that come from out of nowhere seem sexier and often cause us to look past the tremendous players that produce at high levels each season. Pitchers like Roy Halladay and Johan Santana have been excellent for quite some time but they lost plenty of spotlight last season thanks to breakout years from Tim Lincecum and Cliff Lee.

This isn’t to say that Lee nor Lincecum did not deserve their accolades last season but rather that the proven aces who have helped carry their teams for several seasons should not be the Woody tossed aside for the Buzz Lightyear. Last night I wrote about how I cannot stand the “next Cliff Lee” posts and a major contributing factor is that one of the pitchers most likely to post numbers reminiscent of Lee’s last year is Johan Santana, who is still really good.

Many thought he had entered a decline phase in 2007 thanks to a career-worst 3.82 FIP. Once the home run rate is normalized, Santana’s 3.55 xFIP in 2007 was actually very similar to his marks the previous two seasons. When he experienced a sharp dropoff in strikeout and uptick in BB/9 last season, in the more pitcher-friendly senior circuit, those who suggested the decline felt even more confident about their beliefs. An xFIP of 3.83 did not help matters either.

In 2007, Johan produced +4.6 wins. Last season, +4.8 wins. What people are missing when suggesting Santana is overrated is that the worst season in his career as a starter still equaled the well documented efforts of Cole Hamels last season and fell just a bit shy of Derek Lowe’s very stellar 2008 season.

Santana’s last two seasons have not been of the same ilk as his +7.5 or more win seasons from 2004-06, but his incredibly high level of performance became so consistent that those following the game expected it to occur forever; when he “declined” to around +5 wins he was deemed a disappointment. Comfort levels are bad when it comes to baseball because fans don’t realize how good they have it to be able to watch superstars on a daily or weekly basis.

Through four starts this season, nobody outside of Kansas City has been better than Santana and Johan would have to be the consensus pick to sustain some semblance of the early season scrumtrulescence. In all honesty, I hope Johan continues this hot streak just to silence those who have deemed him terribly overrated or think he had little left in the tank.

CHONE pegged Santana to post a 3.45 FIP in 208 innings this season, numbers that would likely result in around +4.5 wins. Through four starts, he has already amassed approximately one third of that total, racking up +1.3 wins in 25.2 innings of work. He is not going to finish the season with a sub-1.50 FIP or a 0.70 ERA but the way he is throwing the ball right now portends success more closely resembling his 2004-06 dominance.

The bottom line is that Johan Santana is still an incredible pitcher and might very well be the best in the sport. Pitchers should not be expected to produce +7.5 wins in every season of their career and thus should not be considered busts or overrated upon a dropoff to a fantastic win value somewhere between +4.5 and +5 wins.

Cliff Lee had, by all accounts, a fantastic 2008 season en route to a Cy Young Award. What made his performance more remarkable was how he seemingly came out of nowhere, a back end of the rotation type of pitcher without any history of complete and utter dominance. Unfortunately, his success last season also paved the way for a wide array of speculation with regards to which pitcher will repeat such a turnaround this season.

Double unfortunately, many of those doing the speculating lack some sort of uniform criteria, leading to several names being floated that realistically fail to match the exactitudes of Lee’s season.

Pitchers like Zack Greinke, Josh Johnson and Chad Billingsley are mentioned the most often. All three of these righties have been dominant in April but do not really have that “Cliff Lee” feel in that they are fairly recently removed from prospect status. Lee experienced a bit of success in the majors for several seasons before an injury plagued 2007 and a dominant 2008; guys like Greinke, Johnson and Billingsley simply do not fit that bill.

Greinke suffered from depression early in his career, rebounded for a very stellar 2008 campaign and has allowed just one unearned run in four starts this season. That doesn’t place him in the same category as Lee. Greinke isn’t a non-descript pitcher suddenly becoming an ace but rather an ace in the making living up to his potential. The same can be said for Billingsley, whom many have been high on for over two years now. Johnson looked dominant before injuries got the best of him so he, too, does not belong in such conversations.

If people are really looking to try and find the “next Cliff Lee” they need to include back end pitchers with a smidgeon of success in their past who have looked solid so far. Someone like Wandy Rodriguez comes to mind. If Rodriguez finishes this season with incredible numbers then his season would have a similar feel to Lee’s. Looking for someone to replicate what Lee did goes beyond someone posting incredible numbers who is not an established ace like Johan Santana or Roy Halladay and too many analyses are failing to make this distinction.

Case in point, speculating on which pitchers are going to have breakout seasons and cement themselves as horses capable of carrying a team is fine… just do not label such speculations as searching for the next Cliff Lee. Or if such a label is involved, make sure the pitchers being discussed are actually in the same category as Lee and not just young pitchers coming into their own.

The Philadelphia Phillies and Florida Marlins started their seasons in very different fashions, with the defending champs struggling to prevent runs and the feisty fish jumping out of the gate to an 11-1 record. Prior to Friday, the Marlins were coming off of six straight interesting games, sweeping the Nationals on three consecutive come from behind wins in the ninth inning or later before dropping three in a row to the Pirates. Against one of their divisional rivals this weekend, the Marlins were about to get a little taste of their own late inning magic. The series opener between the Phillies and Marlins last Friday, a battle of both team’s early aces, spotlights the second in our game of the week feature. Observe the game graph:

In summation, the Marlins were cruising towards a relatively easy victory until they apparently boarded the log floom ride in the final frame and plummeted into a defeat.

The action started in the first inning when the Marlins plated three runs off of Brett Myers. After Josh Johnson retired the top of the Phillies order quite easily, Emilio Bonifacio received the first of Myers’ six free passes. His time on the basepaths would be short-lived, though, as he was quickly erased on a pickoff. John Baker singled to left but Hanley Ramirez was caught looking, leaving Myers one out away from escaping the inning unharmed. Ross Gload followed with a single, advancing Baker to third, before Dan Uggla stepped in and launched a three-run homer. Cameron Maybin whiffed to end the inning but the proverbial damage had been done.

Myers, one of the worst first-inning pitchers in baseball, settled down after that and tossed five scoreless innings before clocking out. Unfortunately, Myers’ efforts were exceeded by Johnson, who scattered three hits and two walks over seven scoreless frames while fanning eight batters. At the time of his departure, the Marlins still led 3-0 and had increased their win expectancy to 94%.

Clay Condrey relieved Myers and Leo Nunez took over for Johnson. Both pitched well enough to keep the score 3-0 entering the top of the ninth inning. The Phillies were known for comeback wins over the last two seasons but had struggled a bit with timely hitting through the first three weeks of the current season. Matt Lindstrom toed the rubber looking to end a three-game losing streak and improve his team to 12-4.

Ryan Howard grounded out to start the inning before Jayson Werth doubled to left. The Phillies now had a 4.2% chance of winning the game. Raul Ibanez walked, putting runners on first and second and increasing the Phillies’ win expectancy to 8.5%. Phillies folk hero Matt Stairs pinch-hit for Pedro Feliz and promptly delivered an RBI single to right, plating Werth and advancing Ibanez to third. With the Phillies now at a win expectancy of 18%, Miguel Cairo supplanted Stairs on the bases. Lou Marson then drew a walk, loading the bases and bringing the Phillies to a 28.3% shot at the game.

Lindstrom then fanned Eric Bruntlett in a very clutch situation, leaving the Marlins one out away from victory. Bases loaded, two outs, 3-1 Marlins… and Lindstrom walks Jimmy Rollins, bringing the Phillies within one run, keeping the bases loaded. Shane Victorino, playoff hero throughout their World Series run last year, then uncorked a grand slam giving the Phillies a 6-3 lead and earning himself 0.723 points of WPA in the process. If that weren’t enough, Chase Utley followed with a solo home run. Lindstrom left the game having surrendered seven runs in the top of the ninth inning.

Renyel Pinto entered and after giving up a double to Ryan Howard and walk to Jayson Werth, he struck out Raul Ibanez to end the abysmal ninth. Amidst a double and a walk in the home half of the ninth, Ryan Madson struck out the side, putting an end on quite the unlikely series of late-inning events. The Marlins scored three in the bottom of the first and the Phillies scored seven in the top of the ninth. In between, no scoring occurred whatsoever. The Phillies went onto repeat their late-inning heroics the next night, coming back from a 4-3 deficit in the top of the ninth to a 6-4 win in extra innings.

They swept the fish with a 13-2 win yesterday, leaving the Marlins with a 6-game losing streak and a very slim lead in the division. Things looked mighty different a week ago but I chose this as the game of the week to highlight how quickly things can change in the game of baseball, and how a team that swept a series on late-inning comebacks could find themselves on the losing end of similar events very soon after.

Back in 1999 I can recall watching a cheesy infomercial with my brother during a rain delay in which the onscreen personality pitched what he had deemed collectors baseball cards. What piqued our interest was not the actual set, or even the Keanu Reeves-esque acting, but rather that amidst showing off cards of Barry Bonds, Chipper Jones and Pedro Martinez, the guy enthusiastically promoted a Rick Ankiel card. Not really knowing anything about prospects at the time, my brother and I turned to each other, completely confused, wondering who this supposed superstar was that we had never heard of before.

Ankiel burst onto the scene in 1999 as a power lefty with the Cardinals. In nine games he posted a 10.6 K/9, fanning 39 hitters in 33 innings of work with a 3.27 ERA. Ankiel continued to show why his baseball card might be worth major money one day by producing a 3.50 ERA in 175 innings of work the very next season. He fanned 10 hitters per nine innings but lost a bit of control, with a BB/9 of 4.6.

And then the playoffs happened… in one of the most disturbing series of events I can recall watching on a baseball field, Ankiel imploded in the third inning of NLDS Game 1 against the Braves, not for mechanical reasons but rather due to a form of the ipps. He walked four hitters and threw five wild pitches before being removed. Though he laughed the situation off, more of the same occurred in the NLCS against the Mets as Ankiel continued to walk hitters and throw wild pitches.

In 2001 he made just six starts, walking 25 hitters in 24 innings before being demoted to AAA. Things only worsened in the minors and Ankiel soon found himself in the rookie league, quite the unlikely playground for the Rookie of the Year runner up just the season before. He thrived there both pitching and hitting, a bit of foreshadowing.

Elbow injuries and Tommy John surgery kept the former stud prospect out of action for the 2002 and 2003 seasons but he did manage to return to the big league club in 2004. Though he logged just 10 innings in a small sample of five appearances, his issuing of a lone free pass definitely induced sighs of relief from the Cardinals faithful. The success would be shortlived, however, as Ankiel’s wildness resurfaced before the 2005 season began. It was at that point when Ankiel decided to try his luck as an outfielder.

A knee injury kept him out of action for the 2006 season but Ankiel made the major league squad in 2007, playing 47 in games primarily in center- and rightfield. A +3.1 UZR rating coupled with a .364 wOBA helped Ankiel put together +1.4 wins in very limited time, a very impressive number. Last season he played 120 games, the bulk of which were spent in centerfield. Despite a UZR bordering on 10 runs below average, a .360 wOBA helped prove Ankiel definitely could hit at the major league level.

All told, Ankiel produced a league average, +2 win season in 120 games of action last season, incredibly remarkable given his past and virtually seamless transition into everyday outfielder.

Cliff Lee’s tremendous and out of nowhere season garnered much of the spotlight last season as did Josh Hamilton’s comeback from a drug addiction. In fact, Ankiel’s teammate Ryan Ludwick even earned more air time from most of the media. Very rarely have we seen a pitcher convert into an everyday position player and then it gets largely ignored upon actually coming to fruition? Ankiel might not be an all star or future hall of famer but his career has certainly been remarkable and deserves to be chronicled just as much as any other great story in baseball.

One of the most difficult aspects in the world of analyzing baseball players involves separating our perception of a player from his actual true talent level. Early last season, Cliff Lee’s previously established talent level prevented many from believing that he could produce such an incredible season. After the small sample of dominance in April fans questioned if Lee was “for real.” As May came to its close fans began to hop aboard his bandwagon. Following several more starts in June people became convinced that the lanky lefty had in fact broken through a plateau and become a different pitcher. Lee’s is an extreme example but Kyle Lohse had a very similar season.

After essentially posting league average numbers since 2002, Lohse put up 2.4 wins in 2007, splitting time with the Reds and Phillies, in two very homer-happy stadiums. He signed a 1-yr/$4 mil contract with the Cardinals in the off-season and became the low-risk bargain of the year by putting up 3.1 wins. Following the success, the Cardinals must have been convinced that Lohse, too, was “for real” and inked him a much-ridiculed four-year extension.

Just like Lee, fans struggled to believe that a pitcher previously considered to be average at best could somehow become so effective. Entering this season most anticipated a regression from Lohse towards the production levels of 2002-06, numbers that certainly merited his spot on a roster but did not necessarily call for an average annual value of $10+ mil per season.

Entering today’s action, Lohse had made three starts and amassed 21 innings, scattering 13 hits, just one of which left the yard. Never a dominant strikeout pitcher, his raw total of 12 and rate of 5.14 were hardly earth-shattering but he had only issued three free passes to the tune of a Maddux-esque 1.29 BB/9. All told, Lohse boasted a 2.57 ERA and 3.14 FIP, good enough for 0.6 wins after a mere three weeks.

In a 12-8 win against the Mets earlier today, Lohse surrendered just one earned run over five innings of work, another quality outing in which he lowered the earned run rate to just 2.42. Lohse likely would have continued to pitch past the fifth however he sustained an injury covering first base and is going to undergo an MRI to see where he stands. Granted, he has only made four starts this season, but this is beginning to have a familiar feel, namely in that there are probably plenty of fans wondering if last season plus this April is enough to prove that Lohse has become a different and much more effective pitcher.

One way to find out is to check out his pre-season projections as they are derived primarily from weighting data from the previous seasons. Before his stellar 2008 campaign, Lohse’s previous three FIPs were 5.06, 4.55, 4.34. He clearly displayed signs of improvement in the controllable skills department but a crude projection for 2008 would call for a mark somewhere in the 4.40-4.50 range.

After 33 starts and 200 innings at a 3.89 FIP, Lohse projected to right around 4.14 entering this season. His season was not incredible enough to prove to the systems that he had become a true talent +3.1 win pitcher but rather somewhere in the +2.5 to +2.8 wins vicinity. I’d like to toss this out there to anyone interested in throwing in their opinions, but at what point will you consider Lohse to legitimately be a very good pitcher if he continues to keep up his current performance level?