With opening day literally right around the corner, fans in every major league city are beginning to feel that itch, that unwavering confidence that this year could be the year their team does some damage. Some of these fans have legitimate cases, as a few teams outside of the usual suspects–Cubs, Phillies, Mets, Dodgers, Yanks, Sox, and Angels–could conceivably play their way to a division title or wild card spot. It wouldn’t surprise me in the least if the Giants or Cardinals somehow snuck up on teams or if the Athletics find themselves playing meaningful games in August and September. One team being mentioned as a potential sleeper is the Cincinnati Reds, and while I do not consider them to have playoff-bound talent this season, I do agree with Jerry Crasnick in that their young nucleus is impressive.

The familiar faces of the team are gone, with Adam Dunn and Ken Griffey Jr finding new homes after mid-season trades, essentially leaving chief regression candidate (in a good way), Aaron Harang as the most recognizable player. He will be joined in the rotation by the consistently under the radar Bronson Arroyo, the PTBNL of the Dunn deal in Micah Owings, and their two young guns, Johnny Cueto and Edinson Volquez. Many forget that Cueto is younger than Volquez and potentially has more upside. This rotation might not wow the pants off of viewers but they certainly combine to be above average.

Francisco Cordero heads the bullpen and while he is in no way worth the ridiculous terms of his contract, it isn’t like he lacks talent. The guy might not be worth all that money but he isn’t a bum. The rest of the bullpen, with names like David Weathers, Mike Lincoln, and Bill Bray, is not flashy but has the experience and skill to get the job done on most nights. This is essentially the perfect recipe for going unnoticed.

Brandon Phillips, though no longer a spring chicken, is still a very solid second baseman combining pop with good glovework. Joey Votto had a better season last year than many realize. Edwin Encarnacion may not be the next Scott Rolen with the glove but he can definitely rake. And top prospect Jay Bruce projects very nicely. The team even has flexibility in certain areas as Jonny Gomes has shown a propensity for mashing lefties and Jerry Hairston Jr put up gaudy numbers in limited playing time last season. Combine both with Chris Dickerson and you get a pretty solid left-field situation.

The lineup certainly has holes and question marks in the forms of Willy Taveras, Alex Gonzalez’s questionable health, and Ramon Hernandez, but the talent on the roster tends to get overlooked. Combine everything and you have a team with a decent enough rotation, a bullpen that doesn’t stink up a locker room, and a lineup primarily featuring players with broad skillsets as opposed to one undeniable ability. The Reds then are the posterchild for being ignored as they lack much flash. Despite the good things I’ve been writing about so far, I cannot see them doing any real damage with regards to the playoffs. Some talent is there, enough to not stink, but not enough to truly succeed.

The last few days have been particularly amusing in the sense that teams are getting rid of their sunk costs, players who instantly become linked to several other teams upon being released. First came Gary Sheffield, released by the Tigers despite being owed a hefty $14 mil. The Phillies followed by releasing Geoff Jenkins, seemingly in an attempt to replace him with Sheffield.

Then reports circulated that both Jenkins and Sheffield had made their way onto the Marlins radar. And today we learn that Sheffield has interest from three teams, of which two are the Reds and Phillies. But certain plans may have been wrenched today when it became evident that Andruw Jones is going to make the Rangers’ final roster.

By releasing Frank Catalanotto, the Rangers seem to be doing whatever they can to ensure that Jones breaks camp with the team. His story is too recent to be forgotten, so forgive me for not waxing poetic on the situation, but the Reds and Phillies were certainly banking on his being demoted or released. Both teams seem to be searching for a righty bench batter, and while Dave covered why Sheffield would not fit in with the Phillies current roster, Jones would have been a legitimate defensive replacement for the major league minimum capable of pinch-hitting and filling in when the inevitable injury bug strikes Shane Victorino or Jayson Werth.

Speaking of Catalanotto, guess who has interest? That’s right, the Florida Marlins, who recently released Dallas McPhereson, acquired Ross Gload from the Royals, and traded Robert Andino to the Orioles for Hayden Penn, all the while being linked to both Jenkins and Sheffield. The Marlins may have more interest in Catalanotto than either of Jenkins and Sheffield given his utility status, which would normally create a bidding war for the man with 499 dingers, but since anything above the minimum would only subtract from the amount owed by the Tigers, no such war will surface.

Thankfully, with the Phillies and Braves kicking off the season in just a couple of days the wacky offseason we have just experienced will come to a close, but now I’m curious to see who gets released each day and where they are immediately linked to playing. The watch is on for Jenkins, Sheffield, Catalanotto and McPhereson, as Jones looks poised to make the Rangers club.

Earlier this week I criticized Gary Matthews Jr. for his not so subtly expressed distaste at anything other than a starting job in the outfield. Matthews had always been an average or worse hitter whose value was largely derived from glovework, but benefited from telltale luck-based indicators in 2006 with the bat, leading to what appeared to be a breakout season. The Angels rewarded him with a 5 yr/$50 mil contract and proceeded to witness Matthews fall off a cliff not only with the bat but also with the glove, becoming one of the worst players in the league last season.

With Torii Hunter, Vladimir Guerrero, Bobby Abreu, and Juan Rivera, Matthews is the odd man out and has been very verbal recently about how the situation merits immediate rectification. Teammate Hunter actually keeps his own blog titled Torii’s Storiis and openly discussed his feelings over the Matthews situation. While I agree with much of what Hunter said, I am still adamant that Matthews has been handling this situation about as poorly as one can handle a situation.

Hunter’s main claim is that, despite the money, Matthews is an athlete and athletes are trained to be intensely competitive. Reading between the lines I gleaned that the defense suggests Matthews cannot see the forest from the trees and still considers himself an immensely productive player.

It also reminded me of a passage from Will Leitch’s book, God Save the Fan in which he recalled a 2-on-2 football game he participated in against Kordell Stewart and Andre Rison. Though Leitch and his partner were clearly amateurs with no shot, Stewart and Rison still proceeded to go all out and pull sneaky athletic tricks in the game. Leitch then remarked about how sad it was that these guys had been trained to be competitive like pitbulls, an aspect of their personality that could never be turned off.

Hunter then makes a very interesting point about Matthews’ age: at 34, Gary isn’t exactly a young guy, but he isn’t exactly an ancient veteran. Hunter feels that the older veterans make the best bench players because they fully understand their capabilities and limitations, while the younger guys are more prone to try and win at all costs. Matthews falls in between these two areas.

I completely grasp Hunter’s take on his teammate but that does not change the fact that Gary Matthews Jr. lacks the requisite talent to be a starting outfielder in the major leagues. His one calling card, defense, has fallen by the wayside over the last two years which, when coupled with average or worse offense makes him more of a liability than an asset. He could still have value as a potential defensive replacement in a limited sample size of innings or as a pinch-hitter/runner, but his fee is too exorbitant for such a role unless the Angels release the sunk cost and another team can sign him for the minimum.

Athletes are definitely human, but they do possess robotic aspects, primarily the need to compete at all costs. Torii Hunter makes some very valid points about Gary Matthews Jr. and his current mindset but none takes away what has been said or justifies the hullabaloo occurring as we speak. Not playing Matthews is a no-brainer situation for the Angels, but perhaps they instilled undeserved confidence in Matthews by issuing that dreadful contract. Luckily, it seems they are getting things right this time around.

As Dave noted yesterday, both Geoff Jenkins and Gary Sheffield were released by the Phillies and Tigers, respectively. The Phillies are on the books for Jenkins entire $8 mil salary while the Tigers will continue to pay $14 mil to Sheffield. Both players are available for the league minimum because of this, which makes them much more attractive assets. In fact, without this stipulation, they would be hardpressed to find employment.

Phillies GM Ruben Amaro apparently contacted Sheffield and his agent, opening up the possibility of replacing a 34-yr old lefthanded hitter who has always played solid defense and can still run the bases with a 40-yr old righty capable of nothing more than pinch-hitting.

Now reports are circulating that Sheffield has an interest in joining the Florida Marlins, perhaps to finish his career with the team on which he did the most damage. One small problem: the Marlins might actually be more interested in Jenkins given the factors detailed above. Sheffield to the Fish would definitely have that glory days type of feel but Jenkins could simply do more for a team like that.

CHONE sees Jenkins capable of a .257/.327/.438 line with Sheff at .242/.341/.415 in virtually the same number of opportunities. Neither player is going to start, or at least neither should start, but if the two appear to be this close with the bat, and Jenkins gets the clear edge in fielding and running, as well as a 6-yr advantage in terms of youth, how could he not be the more viable option? Considering that neither will start, Jenkins is more reliable as a late-inning defensive replacement as well as a pinch-runner.

At $400,000, both of these players should find homes, but do not be surprised if Jenkins garners much more attention than Sheffield and his 499 dingers. Sheffield has had by far the better career but speaking strictly about what can be added to a team in 2009, Jenkins is the far better bet.

Well, folks, it is official: Will Ohman has inked a contract, saying goodbye to the free agent market for at least one more season. After much speculation with regards to who he would end up pitching for this season, Ohman signed an incentive-laden minor league deal with the Dodgers, essentially replacing former lefty specialist Joe Beimel. As recently as two weeks ago, up to six teams were interested in his services, but it had to be on their terms, resulting in Ohman’s asking price taking a significant hit.

The deal with the Dodgers will apparently be worth a base of $1.35 mil should Ohman make the team, with up to $200K in incentives. It also features an option for 2010 valued at $2 mil, with the ability for Ohman to be bought out at $200K.

Ohman realistically should have no problem making the team as he has been one of the better relief pitchers over the last few seasons. Granted, the small sample sizes of innings prevents relievers from accruing solid win values totals, but Ohman has averaged +0.7 wins the last three years while improving his K/BB ratio and FIP and GB/FB. In fact, for the first time last year Ohman actually induced more grounders than flyballs.

Ohman has been dynamite against lefties over the last four years, even holding the same-handed hitters to a paltry .200/.257/.314 line. His projection for 2009 looks similar to the numbers posted in 2006, producing somewhere in the +0.6 to +0.8 win range. At any interval he would more than earn the max $1.55 mil stipulated in his contract, regardless of how much the average dollars/win rate may have fallen this year.

It may seem odd that one of the better relievers, especially one whose asking price consistently lowered, would not be given a guaranteed contract, but Ohman should have no trouble ensuring that he earns all of the money available. Joe Beimel left the Dodgers and after an almost equally long wait, signed a $2 mil deal with the Washington Nationals. The Dodgers were able to replace his services with Ohman, a better strikeout pitcher with an advantage in the walks department as well as a history of more stable home run rates unlike Beimel’s 0.13 and 0.00 HR/9 marks the last two years, and they were able to save at least $450K.

All in all, a great signing, I’m glad it’s over, and in any other year I would be shocked it took so long, but this has not been your typical offseason by any stretch of the imagination. When Chan Ho Park is given a guaranteed $2.5 mil and Will Ohman has to make the major league team to get a base of $1.35 mil, you know something is up.

Following the 2006 season, Gary Matthews Jr. signed a much maligned 5-yr/$50 mil contract with the Los Angeles California Angels of Los Anaheim. The deal was predicated on the assumptions that Matthews’ performance level over 147 games in 2006 could be sustained, and that he had finally come into his own, increasing his win values total from +2.1 to +3.1 to +4.4. Ironically, Matthews went from being a somewhat underrated player to arguably the most overrated player in the game thanks to his tremendous career year.

What happened in 2006 should have been taken with a bit more than a grain of salt, though, as Matthews defied his general modus operandi. Up until that point, he had been a solid example of a no-hit, all-field player. Since a run is a run is a run, Matthews still produced at an above average clip from 2002-05, averaging +2.3 wins/yr. In 2006, though, Matthews became the full time centerfielder for the Rangers and saw his UZR drop significantly. Normally the difference could be written off thanks to positional adjustments but since Matthews had played centerfield for extended periods earlier in his career and had spent plenty of time at all three outfield spots, his adjustment swing was not nearly as dramatic as the -7.5 runs for LF/RF compared to the +2.5 for CF would suggest.

Despite the defensive dropoff, Matthews made “the play” that season, a majestic home run robbing catch that likely needs no further explanation. Offensively speaking, Matthews and his .349 BABIP produced one heck of a season with the bat, putting together a .313/.371/.495 line with a career best .367 wOBA. So now it makes perfect sense: he had cemented himself with a reputation for being a great fielder the previous several seasons, benefited from insane highlight reel catches despite an overall defensive decline, and put up very appealing offensive numbers. This isn’t to say that the aforementioned reasoning completely justifies the acquisition, but at least we can see how the decision may have come to be.

In his first season with the Angels, Matthews saw his defense slip further, this time to -9 runs. Couple that with the expected offensive regression hovering around the league average and a +0.9 win player emerges. Perhaps convinced that the signing was a mistake, the Angels decided to rectify the situation by signing Torii Hunter to a 5-yr/$90 mil contract that very offseason. With Garret Anderson and Vladimir Guerrero already in the mix, Matthews lacked a permanent position last season, splitting time between the three outfield spots. His aggregate defensive mark stayed poor, at -7 runs, and his hitting worsened to -10 runs, making Matthews the fourth least productive position player in baseball last season (min. 450 PA).

This season, the Angels will return Hunter and Guerrero, have replaced Anderson with Bobby Abreu, and will also need to delegate plate appearances to the re-signed Juan Rivera. Matthews has virtually no shot at an everyday job but has expressed his distaste for anything but such a role. Even though Abreu, Guerrero, and Hunter are all in their decline phase, they are more productive players than Matthews. Unfortunately, Matthews projects to post offensive numbers similarly to his first year as a Halo, placing his upside somewhere in the +1.2 to +1.4 wins range. With 3 yrs/$33 mil remaining on the deal, teams are simply not going to be inquiring about Matthews’ availability unless the Angels pay a big chunk of the salary.

Raul Ibanez, a more consistent player, received a similar contract this offseason and even that was considered to be in poor taste relative to the market. Matthews benefited greatly from a career year and will be paid handsomely to boot, but if the past two seasons are any indication he is no longer a major league starter and his ego needs to regress just like his numbers.

Phillies GM Ruben Amaro, Jr. kicked off his tenure with two under the radar moves: trading Greg Golson for John Mayberry, Jr., and sending Jason Jaramillo to the Pirates for Ronnie Paulino. Paulino, formerly the Pirates starter, fell out of favor with the team thanks to a perceived poor work ethic as well as the emergence of Ryan Doumit. After two seasons of league average production or better, Paulino’s abysmal .260 wOBA in 40 games and questionable defense made him very expendable. Amaro wanted to create some competition for Chris Coste in camp and felt that Paulino would be more major-league ready than youngster Lou Marson.

The idea somewhat backfired, as both Coste and Paulino stunk up the batters box this spring, leaving Coste with the backup position largely due to the familiarity factor. Paulino once again became expendable, and in needing to fill the void left by JC Romero’s 50-game suspension, Amaro sent Paulino to San Francisco for lefty reliever Jack Taschner, a questionable move in and of itself given that Taschner has been hit around pretty well by lefties over the last two seasons.

Paulino would not be able to settle down by the bay, however, as the Giants quickly shipped him to the Marlins in exchange for minor league right-handed pitcher Hector Correa. Correa, just 21, has shown an ability to miss bats but will need to harness his control to truly be an effective major league pitcher. This was not a 3-team trade, at least officially, but could very well have been the transaction equivalent to an unintentional intentional walk.

The Phillies get a lefty reliever to fill in for Romero; the Giants get a young pitching prospect; and the Marlins get a backup catcher. Unfortunately, the Marlins starter, John Baker, is more suited for backup duty himself. The Marlins had been after Chris Coste for most of the offseason but ended up with the other Phillies backup catcher. I have to wonder if Taschner would be any sort of an upgrade over merely slotting J.A. Happ into the second lefty role (behind Scott Eyre until Romero returns) and giving Chan Ho Park the fifth starter spot. Amaro has hinted that the team might carry all three of Eyre, Taschner, and Happ, but that seems unlikely.

Maybe Taschner will flourish in this role, and Paulino will reestablish himself as a solid catcher, but these moves do not really appear to provide upgrades for any of the teams involved.

Anticipating that their star second baseman Chase Utley would miss significant time this year while recovering from offseason hip surgery, the Phillies issued several spring training invitations to middle infielders in the hope that one could potentially fill the void. Eric Bruntlett already held down a spot on the roster, but the Phillies were willing to take a look at prospect Jason Donald as well as the formerly employed triumvirate of Miguel Cairo, Marcus Giles, and Pablo Ozuna.

The hopes of everyone mentioned above not named Bruntlett were essentially dashed when the robotic Utley not so shockingly expedited his rehab to the point that he should be ready for opening day. Donald has already been demoted to AAA, and with both Utley and Rollins not going anywhere for some time, the Phillies should really be looking to unload the youngster. The futures of Giles and Ozuna are less clear but it is already apparent that they are not making the big league team. Miguel Cairo, however, will be a Philadelphia Phillies player come opening day, a fact that is eliciting negative responses from many that don’t seem to hold a ton of water.

I can more than respect the distaste over the idea that Cairo is taking the spot of Donald, who looked good this past month. I can also understand that he might not serve as much of a purpose with Bruntlett already garnering utilityman status. And even further, I can comprehend why some fans would be weary of his earning a spot on the team based on spring training numbers, but all of this supposed hatred for Cairo seems to be stemming from the wrong reasons.

The Phillies are not giving him a uniform to be an everyday starter, or even a platoon partner with another starting player. Cairo will likely serve as a pinch-runner and defensive replacement who will make occasional starts and help fill-in when the inevitable injury bug rears its ugly head. He is not a good hitter by any stretch of the imagination but he has proven himself more than capable on the basepaths and has played league average or better defense at just about every non-catcher position over the past few seasons.

Plus, it isn’t as if the Phillies signed him to a contract reminiscent of Geoff Jenkins‘ deal, which looks very bad given the monetary magnitude as well as the fact that the Phillies have a very solid starting outfield and also have to reserve some plate appearances for Matt Stairs. And if they decide to give John Mayberry Jr. a shot, Jenkins and his $8-9 mil are the odd man out.

This is not the case for Cairo, who signed a minor league deal without the guarantee of a roster spot. This move seems to be motivated moreso by the contractual stipulation that Cairo can opt to seek employment elsewhere should he not make the Phillies opening day roster, in conjunction with Jason Donald still having options. There is such low risk involved with giving Cairo this spot; if he stinks in the very limited duty, cut him and bring up Donald. If he thrives or stays true to expectations, he will likely have the chance to do more good than harm. Plus, he’s a former Mariner, so the Phillies are required to give him a roster spot.

Yesterday, we took a look at what goes into infield defense by examining the cases of Mike Jacobs and Hanley Ramirez. Keeping with the themes of defense and, well, the Florida Marlins, I decided to check some data out at the suggestion of colleague Brian Cartwright. Brian astutely pointed out that both Ramirez and second baseman Dan Uggla have posted similar fielding numbers in the sense that both looked slightly different in 2006 and 2008 than they did the year in between.

Interestingly enough, Miguel Cabrera’s defense at third base has followed the same trend, -4 in 2006, -8 in 2007, and -4 in 2008. Of course, Cabrera did not play for the Marlins last season, and was replaced by Jorge Cantu, who proceeded to post a -6 UZR. Let’s visualize the overall UZR numbers for their infield in this span, stacked up next to each other:

Name      2006   2007   2008
Jacobs    -3.2   -4.1  -11.1
Uggla     +7.0   -9.6   +2.9 
Ramirez   -5.5  -19.1   -0.3
Cabrera*  -4.3   -8.1   -6.2

*-Cantu for 2008

In 2006, Jacobs and Cabrera were quite comparable. The next season, Jacobs declined slightly while Cabrera fell off much more, yet their infield peers, perhaps in trying to make up the difference, lost 14-16 runs from the year prior. Last season, the third base situation improved a bit and Ramirez bounced back fantastically. Conversely, Jacobs experienced a vast decrease in his defensive mark and Uggla gained 11-12 runs.

Their respective ranges produce similar results. While we might expect worse range from Jacobs and Cabrera/Cantu to lead to worse UZR marks for Uggla and Ramirez, there seems to be more at work here. Cabrera’s range decline of a couple of runs cannot be the sole contributing factor to Ramirez’s overall defensive mark falling completely off the chart. Likewise, how would Uggla get that much better if Jacobs also fell by the wayside?

As the Chase Utley/Ryan Howard example showed, where Utley posted a ridiculous + – score largely due to Howard’s lack of range, worse range at a position right next door can lead to more opportunities. Unfortunately, many forget that more opportunities can also lead to more failure, but Ramirez and Uggla did not cost their team drastically more error runs than they had in 2006, meaning their extra opportunities were not as detrimental as you might think.

As both MGL and I have shown here, more range actually leads to less errors, and vice versa, with less range leading to more errors, but even when the ranges of Ramirez and Uggla took significant hits in 2007, they did not experience huge shifts in errors compared to the league average fielder at their position.

It makes perfectly good intuitive sense that when the infielder playing next to you shows poor range, that your numbers would also suffer, but that does not seem to be the definitive case here. Perhaps something else is at work, like the pitchers being hit very hard, or both players experiencing the injury bug, but I do not have the end all solution here. Maybe a wisdom of the crowd approach would serve well to answer this question. So, what say you? Why would the defensive numbers of Ramirez and Uggla drop so drastically in 2007 when Jacobs and Cabrera did not take too significant of a hit? And why then would Ramirez and Uggla improve even though Jacobs severely worsened?

I’m not sure exactly what is going on with the Houston Astros and their skipper Cecil Cooper, but it has me particularly concerned for Astros fans everywhere. While writer Danny Knobler hung with Mr. Cooper, the Astros manager pulled his best Jimmy Rollins impression and predicted at least 90 victories for the team this season. Why, you ask, would he think that? Feast your eyes on this quotation:

“We have a terrific bullpen. We have one of the best closers in the game. We’ve got the ace in the National League. We’ve got three of the best offensive players at their position. We’ve got, if not the best, then one of the top catchers in baseball. I mean, c’mon. We’ve got what it takes. You’re telling me we’re not going to win that many games?”

Yes, Cecil, I’m telling you that you will not be winning that many games this year. Not with the current roster, at least, and not without significant visits from the luck fairy and career year wizard. I fully comprehend that the job of a manager involves motivating his players and putting them in the best possible position to succeed, but the above quote seems more like a comment a fanboy would make in one of Dave’s organizational rankings posts.

The Astro bullpen is quite capable of performing well but is in no way a lock to dominate the league. I have long been a fan of Geoff Geary but he is slightly above average at best. Doug Brocail is still a solid enough reliever albeit being interchangeable with a good number of other bullpen arms. Wesley Wright has shown signs of promise. And any of Tim Byrdak, Clay Hensley, and Chris Sampson is likely good for slightly above replacement level production. But do not tell me you fully expect Latroy Hawkins to pitch as well as he did down the stretch. Terrific bullpen? No. Solid? Maybe.

Jose Valverde is a good closer, no question about that, but I would not slot him in the top five in the entire game. Maybe in the senior circuit, but not in all of baseball. This take is at least defendable, however. Roy Oswalt has arguably been the most consistently great pitcher of the decade, but he is not the best in the entire league. Maybe top ten or top fifteen, but not the best. He happens to be an elite performer, but not the elite performer.

Cooper’s next point of contention is asinine at best, given that if a player was clearly the best offensively at his position, we would not be racking our brains trying to figure out who he is talking about.

Lance Berkman is a great player, but Berkman < Pujols. Carlos Lee can definitely rake, but Manny Ramirez and even Matt Holliday can stake claim as the best leftfielders with the stick. After that, who would even qualify as the best offensively at a position. Miguel Tejada? Pudge Rodriguez? Is he talking about Hunter Pence? I’m even willing to forgive this massive oversight because it is harmless when compared to his next statement.

I don’t know what year Cecil Cooper is living in, but Pudge Rodriguez as one of the, if not the, best catchers in the game? What is this, 1999? Rodriguez is, at best, a league average player nowadays based primarily on positional scarcity and defensive prowess. But one of the best in the game? Seriously?

Cooper and some of his players base their 90+ win logic on the fact that they won 86 games last year and have apparently improved. Astros, Pythagoras. Pythagoras, Astros. They are not going to win 90 or more games this year. End of story. Of course I don’t expect Cooper to come out and discuss the ineptitudes of the team, but he didn’t have to emphatically overestimate their talent.