Royals skipper Trey Hillman recently spoke about the defense of his new first baseman, Mike Jacobs, subtly hinting that the numbers deeming him poor are not entirely accurate. Jacobs, according to Hillman, is very good at handling the 3-1 plays in which the first baseman lobs the ball to the pitcher covering the base, which apparently makes him much more of a solid fielder than meets the eye. Whenever I read quotes like this, or stories about players discussing the shortcomings of defensive metrics, I get a bit annoyed because it seems that those doing the talking have a complete lack of understanding of how the metrics work. Hillman may be an innocent bystander in all of this, but his words, for whatever reason, tipped me over the top.

Mike Jacobs, over the last three seasons, has the following UZR numbers: -3.2, -4.1, -11.1. His Dewan + – numbers further confirm the fielding ineptitude. But when managers or players hear numbers like this, they automatically assume it refers to errors made, which is utterly incorrect. Let’s look further at Jacobs, shall we? Thankfully, UZR breaks down where the runs saved/allowed come from, and a more granular analysis at Jacobs shows that he is quite adept in certain areas and equally awful in others.

Jacobs’ double play stats averaged around -0.4 runs/season, placing him right around average. His error runs, which show the runs saved via not making errors relative to the average player at the position, average out to +0.5 runs/season. Essentially, those defending Jacobs because he does not make many errors are correct, but not making errors does not automatically result in a solid fielder. The issue with Mike Jacobs is range, and the fact that he, well, does not have any. Over the last three years, his range has cost the team an average of -6.0 runs.

Put everything together and a player with an average -6.1 runs/season on defense emerges. Certainly not the worst fielder in the history of the sport, but by no means an effective one. Jacobs looks solid in terms of double plays and limiting errors, but his lack of range prevents him from reaching balls that other first basemen can glove. So, just because Jacobs has the reputation of being a poor fielder does not necessarily mean he stinks in every aspect of fielding, and along similar lines, the areas in which he performs well, though important to the mainstream, are not the sole barometers for defensive prowess.

Jacobs’ former teammate, Hanley Ramirez, is another interesting defensive case study, as HanRam has the reputation for being a Jeter-esque fielder despite two league average or slightly worse seasons out of three in the big leagues. That’s right, in 2006 and 2008, Hanley the Manly put up UZR marks of -5.5 and -0.3, respectively, which are much better than the numbers posted by Jacobs given the difficulty of the position. Via positional adjustments, remember that, assuming 162 games for each player, an SS with a -7.5 run defensive mark is equal in overall fielding value to a first baseman with a +12.5 defensive mark, because 1B is very easy to play relative to captaining the infield.

What earned Ramirez the reputation was his -19 run performance in 2007, but getting granular once more shows an interesting tell. Ramirez has been above average in ability to turn double plays in all three of his seasons, and his error runs are not necessarily the ultimate cause of his defensive downfall either, as the -7.3 ErrR in 2007 was not significantly higher than the -5.8 ErrR in 2006. Look at his range runs, though: -1.1, -13.3, +2.5.

In both 2006 and 2008, Ramirez was virtually league average in terms of range, but he lost everything in 2007. The three years may not be a large enough sample from which to draw any conclusions, but my gut instinct tells me that the 2007 season is more fluky than indicative of his true talent level. We have two players here, one of whom is a poor fielder that elicits defense from fans based on an ignorance of what actually goes into evaluating fielding, and another who has garnered a reputation in the mainstream for one really bad year that may very well go down as a fluke among flukes. The bottom line is that more goes into fielding valuations than simply the “ability” to not make errors, and understanding these components is a must in order to ever have intellectual discourse regarding the subject.

Over the last twenty or so years, the world of major league baseball has seen some of the best starting pitching in its history. The best of the best is generally referred as “the nine” as the group–Greg Maddux, Randy Johnson, Roger Clemens, Pedro Martinez, John Smoltz, Tom Glavine, Curt Schilling, Mike Mussina, and Kevin Brown–consists of nine pitchers, all of whom are either locks for Cooperstown or have strong resumes that are overshadowed by fellow members. Schilling, now 42 years old, and who most recently pitched for the Boston Red Sox, missed the entire 2008 season due to injuries, and has decided to call it a career. His 20 seasons saw some remarkable pitching, combining a tremendous ability to miss bats with pinpoint control and strategy derived from some of the most in-depth game preparation ever reported by a player.

Let me be blunt and get this out of the way: this post is going to praise Schilling the pitcher and I do not want to hear anyone say he is not worthy of post-career accolades based solely on his “only” having 216 wins.

After four seasons floundering around the Orioles and Astros organizations, the Philadelphia Phillies turned Schilling into a starting pitcher in 1992, when the swingman logged 226.1 innings with a 2.35 ERA and 2.91 FIP. He made 42 appearances of which 26 were starts and still managed to throw 10 complete games. The next season, despite posting somewhat regressed numbers with a 4.02 ERA and 3.46 FIP, Schill pitched the Phillies into the playoffs and came very close to winning his first world series title. The next several seasons would be spent on Phillies teams that came nowhere near their 1993 success, but Schilling still managed to dominate, increasing his K/9 past 10.0 while hovering around 2.0 with his walk rate.

Tired of the Phillies losing ways and inability to do what it took to win, Schilling demanded a trade and soon found himself a member of the Arizona Diamondbacks. That 2000 season was not one of his best but you have to have a damn good track record for a 3.81 ERA and 3.86 FIP in 210.1 innings to be considered a down year. As we all know, with Randy Johnson already in the fold, likely the best 1-1A punch ever led the DBacks to win the whole thing in 2001. It’s a shame we do not have the win values for the 2001 season here because odds are Schilling would have the highest consecutive total of the decade, if not longer, with his 01-02 numbers. During that storied season, Curt put up a 2.98 ERA and 3.11 FIP in 256.2 innings to go along with a ridiculous 7.51 K/BB ratio.

His 2002 season produced +9.7 wins, thanks to a 3.23 ERA, 2.40 FIP and 9.58 K/BB in 259.1 innings. The injury bug bothered Curt in 2003, limiting his availability to just 24 starts, but his numbers remained so stellar that they produced +5.9 wins. Extrapolated out over the remainder of the season, Schilling would have likely been closer to +7.5 wins. Stilll, +5.9 wins added is nothing to scoff at but he had been so incredibly dominant the previous two seasons that the total looks a bit low.

A change of scenery was in store once again following the 2003 campaign as Schilling joined the Boston Red Sox. In a full season, he produced +7.3 wins in 226 innings and helped lead the team to their first world series since trading Babe Ruth. Schilling would once again suffer from injuries in 2005, even spending some time as the team’s closer, but he pitched so effectively in 69 innings that his win value still surpassed the league average mark of +2.0. 2006 saw a return to form for arguably the best post-season pitcher of all time, as Schilling logged over 200 frames and produced +5.5 wins. And just like his 2005 season, Schilling missed time in 2007 but still managed to look great, falling just shy of +3 wins, and earning another world series ring in the process.

Since 2002, Schilling has +33.4 wins to his name, a number that looks even better on a per-game basis due to the time he missed. He has extremely solid career rates, has been virtually untouchable in the playoffs, has three world series championship rings, and has become a legend thanks to that bloody sock. Curt Schilling did not have a career akin to Maddux, Johnson, or Pedro, but he is a surefire Hall of Fame pitcher in the mind of this writer, and should be congratulated for a great career.

With the regular season inching closer by the day, teams are beginning to get a better feel for which bubble players are going to make the big league squad. As a byproduct, those squeezed out of the bubble are being released by their now previous employers. Two players cut in somewhat questionable fashion were Shawn Hill of the Nationals and Jimmy Gobble of the Royals. Both players apparently still look appealing to the league, as Hill is expected to sign a minor league deal with the Blue Jays immediately upon clearing waivers while Gobble is going to sign a minor league deal with the Rangers.

JP Ricciardi aptly compared Hill’s status to the team with that of Wade Miller’s, which makes sense given that both pitchers have shown spurts of effectiveness marred by longer periods of injury. With Miller, Hill, and Clement in camp, Ricciardi is essentially throwing darts while wearing a blindfold and hoping that one sticks somewhere on the board. If all three work out, great, but the moves are so low risk as to not adversely affect the team if they prove to be busts.

Hill’s modus operandi, as discussed last week, is fairly well known: he has a tremendous sinker, a career FIP just over 4.00, but a health history that would elicit chuckles from Chris Snelling. Hill has missed an entire season due to injuries, as well as large portions of other seasons, making just 37 starts over the last five calendar years. His 2007 season produced +1.5 wins in just 16 starts, but that figure actually happens to be the highest number of starts he has made in a single season.

Gobble was a once promising prospect in the Royals organization, a lefty who, along with fellow southpaw Jeremy Affeldt, would lead the team out of the cellar. His first two seasons did not necessarily go as planned, producing a combined +1.8 wins, with an abysmal 2.98 K/9 in 2004. The next season, Gobble primarily pitched out of the bullpen, and despite seeing a strikeout rate rise to 6.37, his control imploded, a fact made apparent by a 5.03 BB/9.

In 2006, Gobble quit relying on his fastball as much, incorporated a healthier dose of breaking balls, and saw his FIP improve significantly to the tune of 4.17. His strikeout rate soared above 8.5 while the control issues subsided resulting in a BB/9 of 3.11. Of course, since relievers accrue such small samples of playing time, their efforts are largely wasted in the win values column, but Gobble’s +1.1 wins in just 84 innings speaks volumes to his effectiveness. He followed that successful campaign up with another solid season in 2007, sustaining his FIP and experiencing minimal dropoffs in his strikeout and walk rates. Gobble stranded runners much better as well, posting just a 3.02 ERA.

Then, last season happened. Gobble’s strikeout rate fell to 7.7, which might not have been as bad if not for a revived implosion of control, with a walk rate well over six per nine innings. In just 31.2 innings, Gobble posted an 8.81 ERA, 5.85 FIP, and -0.3 wins. CHONE sees Gobble capable of repeating his 2007 campaign, which would likely be good for +0.3 to +0.6 wins. Even when struggling, Gobble still dominated lefties over the past two seasons, and if he retains this ability, the Rangers just found themselves a solid reliever.

Neither Hill nor Gobble could end up making their respective squads, but Ricciardi and Daniels have done a good job at identifying potential bargains by bringing these two aboard.

The Philadelphia Phillies and New York Mets have, over the last several seasons, reignited a rivalry that many have been hoping to see for quite some time. They have also combined for extremely memorable finishes in each of the last two seasons. Entering 2009, the teams once again project to be very close in talent, with the Mets solidifying their bullpen and the Phillies ridding themselves of Adam Eaton. Both of the teams also happen to be four men deep in their respective starting rotations, with a decent number of hurlers competing for the final spots.

With Johan Santana, Mike Pelfrey, John Maine, and Oliver Perez in the fold, Tim Redding looked to be the de facto fifth starter when he signed early in the offseason. Omar Minaya added some competition, however, by bringing prospect Jonathan Niese to camp as well as inking Livan Hernandez and Freddy Garcia to minor league contracts with spring training invites. Redding reportedly showed up overweight and has not been terribly impressive so far, giving up nine earned runs in just two innings of work.

Though we should never put too much stock into preseason statistics, you better believe that they play a part in the decision making processes. In 14.2 innings this month, Livan Hernandez has a 3.07 ERA and has not yet surrendered a home run. Sure, his 4.29 K/9 is below average and his success is likely smoke and mirrors, but he hasn’t looked too shabby. His low risk counterpart Garcia has been the opposite, allowing 14 hits and 13 earned runs in just seven innings, vastly reducing his chances of making the big league club. And despite being young, Niese has not looked great either, with seven walks and six earned runs in eight innings. He has shown a knack for fanning hitters, but his control needs improvement before we can consider him to be a viable and dependable major league pitcher.

Then we have Pedro Martinez, who as I wrote in a profile at Baseball Prospectus has seemingly been engaged in a one-sided game of hard to get with his former employers. The Mets apparently have an offer of $1-2 mil on the table for Pedro, and if the Dodgers fail to match these terms, Martinez would prefer to remain in New York. Assuming Garcia does not break camp with the team, and Martinez comes aboard, what do you do? Minaya will have Livan, Redding, Pedro, and Niese and just one spot available. Niese would presumably go back to the minors, but that still leaves Livan, Redding, and Pedro, with Redding being the sole owner of a guaranteed contract.

The Phillies situation is a bit easier in terms of the number of viable candidates left, but the remaining two hurlers have both been very impressive. With Kyle Kendrick and Carlos Carrasco out of the hunt, just J.A. Happ and Chan Ho Park remain. In 15 innings this month, Happ has a 3.60 ERA with 11 punchouts and just three free passes issued. Those numbers are bested by Park, who has a 1.54 ERA, 11 punchouts and no walks in 11.2 innings.

With the uncertainty surrounding Cole Hamels‘ availability, both Happ and Park could conceivably start the season in the rotation. If Hamels is available right away, the Phillies have a decision to make: which one starts and which one goes to the bullpen? The “logical” decision would be to place Happ in the bullpen to start the season given the absence of JC Romero for at least 50 games. Either way, whichever pitcher loses out will be close behind should the fifth-spot victor struggle.

If you’re a Mets fan, do you want Redding, Pedro, or Livan? And for Phillies fans, Park or Happ? And if you’re a fan of neither, who has the more intimidating name: Balfour or Broxton?

This post deserves to be read in tandem with my thoughts on the Joe Beimel signing, because in order to make room for the lefty reliever on their roster, the Nationals decided to part ways with starter Shawn Hill. My thoughts on the matter took a couple of detours, beginning with “Huh!?” before swinging a right turn down the road of “Oh, well he’s very injury prone,” eventually ending up right back at “Huh!?” See, if the team in question were the Red Sox, Yankees, Phillies, Rays, Cubs, etc, releasing Hill in favor of a better option would be a feasible solution. After all, he has proven himself incapable thus far of remaining healthy, but this is the Nationals.

Upon learning of the move, Dave even remarked that he should move the Nats down to spot #31 on his organizational rankings… which doesn’t make sense because there are only 30 teams in the…. oh, now I get it!

Hill is 27 yrs old, throws a menacing sinker, sports a 1.75 career groundball to flyball ratio, and boasts a very solid 4.11 FIP. The issue of course is that these impressive numbers have only been seen in 37 starts over four seasons. Hill’s most impressive season came in 2007, when he made 16 starts with a 3.42 ERA, 4.03 FIP, and 2.60 K/BB. In half of a season the Canadian-born righty produced +1.5 wins. Extrapolate that sort of production, even with a bit of regression tossed in, and Hill’s season could have been worth just under +3 wins added, a very nice total.

With Hill out of the mix, the Nationals will turn to John Lannan and Scott Olsen to head their rotation; they will hope and pray that Daniel Cabrera finally harnesses his raw talent; and they will delegate fourth and fifth starter responsibilities between Jordan Zimmerman, Collin Balester (took two tries to get the correct “L” alignment), and Shairon Martis.

The Nationals unloaded injury-prone starter John Patterson last season, who then went onto retire. Whether Hill takes the same road is yet to be seen (sheesh, a lot of street/road metaphors here) but the Nationals and GM Mike Rizzo better hope that one or more of Zimm/Balester/Martis pans out, especially given Hill’s self-assessment that his arm felt good after his most recent outing.

One interesting aspect of Hill to take note of is his screwy mechanics. I vividly recall former Phillies TV color commentator Larry Andersen remarking that Hill’s front foot plants itself way before his hand reaches his ear, meaning that the righty is basically throwing with all arm. Such a windup may lead to extra sink on the ball, as several scouts have remarked, but it also carries a high injury risk, as we have already seen. Shawn Hill deserves to be on a team somewhere as he is too talented to not be employed, but someone needs to tinker with his mechanics in order to keep him on the field.

Otherwise, Hill will be just another pitcher who showed spurts of brilliance but could not stay on the field to showcase his abilities.

After much speculation that Joe Beimel would remain out west and sign with the likes of either San Diego or Oakland, the lefty reliever inked a 1-yr/$2 mil deal with the Washington Nationals today. He joins a bullpen that recently signed Julian Tavarez and already houses the likes of Joel Hanrahan, Steven Shell, Jesus Colome, and Saul Rivera. Beimel has pitched in the major leagues for eight seasons so far, spending time as an employee of the Pirates, Twins, Devil Rays, and Dodgers. Not until he wore Dodger blue did he truly become effective.

Relief pitchers, thanks in large part to very small samples of performance, do not accrue much in the win value department. That being said, Beimel’s marks of +0.7 in 2007 and +0.9 last season are quite impressive, especially given his role as a lefty specialist. Prior to joining the Dodgers, Beimel had actually performed better against righthanded hitters, but an increase in fastball usage at the expense of his slider led to more swings out of the zone, a lower rate of swings in the zone, and less contact made on those zone swings. In the process, he vastly reduced the effectiveness of opposing lefties.

As a member of the Dodgers, Beimel posted ERAs of 2.96, 3.88, and 2.02 respectively. Based on controllable skills, his run prevention should have been worse, with FIP marks of 4.49, 3.39, and 3.30. The improving FIP is misleading, however, as it has much more to do with Beimel’s home run prevention “skills” than anything else. Throughout his three-year tenure with the Dodgers, Beimel saw steady increases in both his walk and strikeout rates, but cut home runs almost entirely out of the menu. His HR/9 marks in this span: 0.90, 0.13, 0.00. He served just one gopherball in 2007 and did not allow any to leave the yard last season.

The projections naturally call for a regression in this area, but even with a higher home run rate, Marcel sees Beimel capable of improving both his walk and strikeout rates. Assuming his true talent level shines through this season, Beimel would post a 3.78 ERA/3.99 FIP in 56 innings, numbers that would push him somewhere between +0.4 and +0.7 wins added. The economy is screwy to the point that $4.5 mil/win might not be terribly accurate, so let’s arbitrarily adjust that to $3.5 mil. Under that scenario, the Nationals are paying the lefty specialist to produce +0.57 wins, smackdab in the middle of the aforementioned range.

Despite being 32 years old, lefty specialists like Beimel will always be able to find a home. He is not a relief ace, and greatly benefits from playing in front of solid defense due to his groundball rates and pitch to contact mentality, but he will definitely provide the Nationals with a decent enough return on their investment… as long as he is utilized in proper fashion and not called upon to handle extreme setup duty based on last year’s tidy 2.02 ERA.

The Los Angeles Dodgers have been firmly entrenched in the headlines recently thanks to their ongoing negotiations with Manny Ramirez. The ManRam saga received so much attention that many are yet to discuss their starting pitching situation. Gone are both Derek Lowe and Brad Penny, and Greg Maddux has hung up his cleats for good, eliminating the possibility of another mid-season trade. This leaves Chad Billingsley, Hiroki Kuroda, Clayton Kershaw and Randy Wolf manning the first four spots, with the likes of Shawn Estes, Eric Stults, and Jason Schmidt competing for the final position.

Well, remove Schmidt from the running, as Joe Torre has conceded that the former all-star will not be ready for opening day, and cannot yet be relied upon for consistent playing time. At 36 yrs old, and with rapidly declining fastball velocity, Schmidt may very well be at the end of his career. So let’s take a look at his major league tenure.

After starting his career with the Braves, Schmidt found himself traded to the Pirates in 1996, where he would make 154 starts spread over six different seasons. Schmidt’s peripherals were nothing to write home about, consistently posting a sub-7.0 K/9 and a walk rate comfortably above 3.0 per nine innings. Towards the end of his time with the Pirates, though, he began to miss more bats, meaning the Giants acquired a different pitcher than Pittsburgh fans had been accustomed to seeing.

That 2001 season, during which Schmidt joined the Giants, turned out to be his best up to that point, with an 8.5 K/9, 2.33 K/BB, 1.32 WHIP, 4.07 ERA, and 3.64 FIP, all of which were career bests. Proving that the previous season was not a fluke, Schmidt bested the aforementioned bests in 2002, with a 9.5 K/9, a 2.68 K/BB, 1.19 WHIP, 3.45 ERA, and 3.11 FIP. Our win values metric begin in 2002, as well, showing that Schmidt’s solid campaign produced +4.4 wins, virtually equivalent to the 2008 output of Cole Hamels.

Having already showed signs of incredible improvement, Schmidt’s 2003 and 2004 seasons would see lower walk rates and a decreased batting average against. Combined with increased strand rates and very high whiffs per nine, Schmidt was missing bats, limiting hits, preventing free passes, and keeping stagnant those fortunate enough to reach base. His 2003 season produced +6.7 wins, followed up by +6.6 wins in 2004. In 2005-06, Schmidt failed to look as dominant but remained very valuable to the Giants, adding an aggregate +6.9 wins. Following the season, the Giants chose to go in a different direction and Schmidt signed with the rival Dodgers.

The 6-start season was marred by injuries and ineffectiveness, landing Schmidt with an extended trip to the disabled list. In fact, he did not even pitch in the majors last season thanks to injury bugs. With the departures of both Lowe and Penny, Schmidt figured to be a solid contender for the rotation this season, especially given his exorbitant salary, but it just does not seem to be in the cards. He could continue to work and join the team mid-season, but one has to wonder how effective or durable of a boost he could even provide.

Jason Schmidt, in his prime, was a very fun pitcher to watch, but he is several years removed from his prime and, barring unforeseen circumstances involving improved health or performance reminiscent of his glory days, he might even be fortunate from here on out to become an NRI fixture.

Entering spring training, the Phillies were set in four of their five starting pitching slots, with Cole Hamels, Brett Myers, Jamie Moyer, and Joe Blanton. The fifth spot would be up for grabs between Kyle Kendrick, J.A. Happ, newly acquired Chan Ho Park, and prospect Carlos Carrasco. Kendrick and Carrasco have both struggled in limited action thus far, while Happ and Park have done nothing but impress. In fact, their duel might be making more headlines in Philadelphia if it weren’t for the fact that Hamels recently took a plane ride back home to get a tight left elbow examined.

Hamels insists that the “injury” is nothing serious and that he should be okay for his opening day start on April 5th against the Braves. Apparently, he feels fine while pitching and does not experience any soreness, tightness, or tenderness following an outing, but has slight discomfort in between innings. Many will be quick to point out his elevated workload and its role in this situation, but let’s not get too ahead of ourselves.

In 2006, Hamels logged 181.1, 73% of which occurred at the major league level. The following season, Cole pitched a total of 190 innings including his lone postseason start against the Rockies. This past year, however, he combined 227.1 regular season innings with 35 more in the playoffs to surpass his 2007 total by just over 72 frames. In the process, his name found its way into several columns discussing the Verducci Effect, which theorizes that young pitchers experiencing a significant increase in workload are more vulnerable to injuries.

Despite Hamels’ insistence that the issue might be overblown, he is not going to risk his entire season in order to toe the rubber on opening day. If, for whatever reason, his left elbow has more damage than meets the eye, both Park and Happ will end up in the rotation to start the season, rendering their current competition moot. Unfortunately, this would not be a consolation for anyone outside of either Park or Happ, as the Phillies will need a healthy Hamels to have any shot of making the playoffs, let alone repeating.

This is not the first time Hamels has had to battle with the injury bug and CHONE seems to recognize this, suggesting that the World Series MVP will make just 29 starts. Despite the dropoff in playing time, his forecast calls for a higher strikeout rate while sustaining the walk rate, FIP, and strand percentage. Hamels is a true ace in every sense of the term, and despite both his and Amaro’s subtle hints at annoyance that this story is making plenty of headlines, even the slightest talk of ailments to the lefty is going to set the Phanbase into a frenzy of speculation.

If everything that has been said is 100% accurate, then Hamels will not miss any time to start the season, will kick off the entire major league baseball schedule, and cause a logjam in that final rotation spot, causing either Park or Happ to start the season in the bullpen. More updates as they come.

According to Ken Rosenthal, former Washington Nationals closer Chad Cordero has inked a minor league deal with the Seattle Mariners, turning down more lucrative offers elsewhere due to their vacant savers slot. Cordero has had quite the interesting career thus far, combining several elements that would lead to a player flying under the radar: playing for a bad team, posting good but not great numbers, and being bitten by the injury bug. However, with J.J. Putz donning a New York Mets uniform this season and Aaron Heilman leaving for the Cubs soonafter joining the Ms relief corps, Cordero will likely have as good a shot as any to fill the closers void.

I remember first seeing Cordero in 2003, when he managed to fan four Phillies hitters in 1.2 innings while throwing virtually all average fastballs. He pitched 12 games that season, with a 1.64 ERA/2.85 FIP. Of course it’s a small sample but he looked more than capable of succeeding as a reliever. Over the next four seasons, Cordero’s ERA vastly outdid his success rate via controllable skills, but he realistically put together three very effective seasons. Relievers generally do not contribute that much in the win values column but Cordero appeared to be more than serviceable.

He still throws an extreme amount of fastballs, which would be fine if they impressed the radar guns, but Chad tops out at around 91-92 mph and averages closer to 89 mph. His offspeed offerings are not all that impressive which goes a long way towards explaining the fastball frequency. While the normal recommendation would involve incorporating the offspeed portion of his repertoire more often, his injury will likely cause him to favor the fastball that much more.

Still, Cordero is only 26 yrs old, and has proven himself capable of missing a good amount of bats, stranding a well above average percentage of runners, and exhibiting signs of solid control. Removing the small samples of his rookie season and injury plagued 2008 and Cordero is much more of a flyball pitcher, which may bode well for him given the defensive prowess of the Mariners outfield alignment this season.

The deal is so solid for the Mariners and GM Jack Zduriencik that it really does not even merit discussion here. They signed a reliever who could be just as effective as the Beimel/Ohman/Reyes/Springer-types, for a non guaranteed minor league deal. If he has recovered from his ailments, something which Zduriencik feels has occurred, then Cordero should have no problem joining the ranks of the bullpen and potentially working his way into the closers role. The injury to Brandon Morrow may be a bit more severe than initially reported, perhaps pushing him into the role of reliever once more, which could have an effect on Cordero’s status, but that remains to be seen.

What we do know, however, is that the Mariners have made tremendous upgrades this season, putting themselves in a position to sneak up on opponents this season and win moving forward. Cordero is the most recent in a long line of impressive moves from Jack Zduriencik and would be my pre-season prediction for the best low-risk/high-reward pitching move of the offseason.

While discussing Milton Bradley’s comments that, because no team seemed willing to give him more than a one-year deal, he did whatever possible to preserve statistics for salary maximization purposes, I could not help but think about Reggie Sanders. Not because Sanders in any way ever acted similarly to Bradley but rather that he always seemed to be signing one-year deals with new teams. After eight seasons with the Reds (1991-98), Sanders went onto sign single season contracts in each of the next five seasons. Add in his final year with the Reds and first season on a 2-yr deal with the Cardinals and, from 1998-2004, Sanders played fro seven different teams in seven seasons.

In actuality, Sanders shares more of a bond with Bradley than meets the eye. Both produced at a high level despite missing a plethora of time due to injuries. The biggest difference between the two deals with attitude, in that Bradley is perceived to have a bad one, while nobody really knows anything about Sanders. The fact of the matter is that, regardless of how productive of a career he may have had, Reggie Sanders was a very boring player. Because he lacked commercial appeal and actually spoke humbly with the media, Sanders never became a well-known star and has realistically already been forgotten by hordes of fans.

Which is a shame given that his career really was remarkably better than most remember. Over 16 seasons, Sanders hit .267/.343/.487, with a .359 wOBA, 305 HR and 304 SB. Yes, Reggie Sanders is one of only six members of the 300-300 club, whose other members include Barry Bonds, Bobby Bonds, Willie Mays, Andre Dawson, and Steve Finley. On top of that, since 1901, only five players have hit 275+ HR, stolen 275+ bases, recorded an OBP > .335 and an SLG > .475: Barry Bonds, Alex Rodriguez, Willie Mays, Eric Davis, and Reggie Sanders.

So, what’s the point of all this? Well, it’s a tad annoying that fans and media members generally want players to be as humble as possible, yet someone with a career as solid as Sanders is instantly forgotten because he wasn’t a cocky or loudmouthed malcontent. Ten years from now, Milton Bradley is going to be remembered… Reggie Sanders is already forgotten by many as I type these words. With that in mind, I am hereby starting the Reggie Sanders Club of Boring Stars, whose members will include players that put up very solid numbers similar to those of Sanders, no shot at the Hall of Fame, and who were boring, or at the very least, not famous for their attitudes or statistics.

Colleague Matthew Carruth pointed out that any sort of query to find such members would need to feature something like OPS+ in order to acknowledge the difference in eras. Sanders had a career OPS+ of 115, so I looked for players with at least 200 HR, 100 SB, and an OPS+ between 105 and 135, and then eliminated anyone who did not fit the aforementioned criteria, IE, non-boring, potential HOFers. The list quickly dwindled to five potential candidates, all of whom I am comfortable with inducting: Ellis Burks, Luis Gonzalez, Shawn Green, Mike Cameron, and Ray Lankford.

If anyone has other suggestions, please let me know, as my ultimate goal here is to recognize the players that actually embody what fans and the media seem to love so much.