Yesterday, Dave discussed the Jon Garland signing, largely criticizing the acquisition based on the fact that they failed to offer Randy Johnson, a superior pitcher even at this stage, a deal as lucrative. While I am not going to continue the discussion about that particular signing, the idea arose that 200 innings from Garland is less productive than 120 or so innings from Johnson should he sustain injuries. This reminded me of something Tango posted last year showing that Albert Pujols‘ numbers were almost equivalent to the production of Mark Teixeira and Jeff Francoeur combined. Whew, spelled both correctly.

All too often, injury-prone pitchers are written off as ineffective. This could not be further from the truth as certain pitchers who fit this mold are wildly productive in the time they spend on the field. Even though they fail to stay healthy enough to log 200 IP in 35 GS, they end up posting some very solid numbers.

Take a look at Ben Sheets, for starters, who produced a 2.43 FIP in 106 IP back in the 2006 season. He made 17 starts, with a 9.83 K/9 and 0.93 BB/9, good for a K/BB of 10.55. Even with a .344 BABIP and 67% LOB, Sheets still managed a 3.82 ERA. All told, his half-season produced +4.0 wins. In the same season, the aforementioned Garland produced +3.9 wins in 211 innings. Yes, Sheets was slightly more productive than Garland even though he pitched almost exactly half of the innings.

This is not the only example either. In 2007, Randy Johnson made just 10 starts, pitching in 56 innings. His 3.20 FIP and 5.54 K/BB helped him produce +1.6 wins that season. In one-fourth of the season, he produced more than 200 innings of Tom Glavine, or 170 innings of Boof Bonser. His win value also surpassed the combined output of Kip Wells, Livan Hernandez, and Scott Olsen in ~520 IP.

Granted, we never know what would have happened if the injured pitchers lasted the entire season. Still, do you really believe Johnson and Sheets would have declined so rapidly that their statistics would drop them into the average category? When pitchers with half of a season or so of statistics are evaluated, the most common reaction is to think they could not possibly be as productive as innings-eaters who stay on the field. This simply is not a universal truth. 106 IP of Ben Sheets in 2006 (+4 wins) + 105 IP of Replacement Level pitching (+0 wins) is equal to, or greater than, 211 IP of Jon Garland (+3.9 wins).

Examples like this will not always surface, but injury-prone pitchers do have value, even if that value is only seen for half of a season.

Reputations are interesting in the sense that they can alter our perception of a player. For instance, Jon Garland, who just signed a questionable deal with the Diamondbacks, has the reputation of a durable, grounder-inducing pitcher. This reputation is sound given that he routinely logs 200+ IP in 33+ GS, but it also masks his shortcomings. Adversely, the reputation for falling prey to injuries can mask a player’s true production level. Just look at Ben Sheets: 130 IP of Sheets at the top of his game is more productive than 200 IP from someone like Garland.

And the lack of a reputation prevents similar pitchers from being acknowledged. Which brings us to Braden Looper, an average or so pitcher who projects to perform similarly to this past season in 2009, performance similar to that of Garland’s. Despite the similarities, Looper lacks the reputation or track record of being extremely durable. I have seen perhaps two teams expressing even cursory interest in the veteran. The track record set by Garland may be worth the extra interest and salary, but this is interesting nonetheless.

If Looper throws 185 IP with a 4.54 FIP, down from the 199 at 4.52 in 2008, he would still be worth right around +1.65 wins. No, this isn’t going to light the world on fire, but he isn’t going to cost much, especially in this economy, and the return is not going to be that far off of someone like Garland. Looper would have made more sense for a team like the Mets than Tim Redding, yet his name never even surfaced.

Randy Wolf’s recent reputation comes as an injury-prone pitcher. From 2005-07, he managed just 43 starts coming off of Tommy John Surgery. Still, in 18 starts during the 2007 season, Wolf produced +1.7 wins. Last season, in 33 GS and 190 IP, he produced +2.0 wins. It seems safe to say that Wolf is, at worst, a +1.8 win pitcher next year. Exceeding the league average production in 2008 is not out of the question, either, given that he has now pitched a full post-surgery season.

Garland, Looper, and Wolf all project quite similarly to each other in 2009. Despite this, Looper’s lack of a reputation and Wolf’s supposed inability to stay on the field are important enough to teams that these pitchers are rarely mentioned. If a team seeks a decent 4th or 5th starter to fill out their rotation, one that does not come at too steep of a price, either of these two is likely to be just as productive as Garland, if not better.

I would like to interrupt tonight’s regularly scheduled programming to inform you about one of the best pre-season books out there, The Hardball Times Season Preview 2009. Friends of Fangraphs, the THT staff does incredible work on a daily basis and their pre- and post-season publications are among the best on the market. The book is billed as featuring everything one would need to win his fantasy championship, but fantasy or not, the information presented is still very valuable.

David Gassko recruited some of the best team-oriented bloggers to specifically write about their respective teams. Each writer penned an essay, answering numerous questions regarding playing time, outlook, and recap, as well as brief commentary on each member of the team. I happened to write the Phillies chapter.

In addition to the teamwide essays and commentaries, the Season Preview 2009 features THT’s own projections for the upcoming season, an injury outlook from expert Chris Neault, and information on rookies to look out for courtesy of fantasy guru Derek Carty. The Hardball Times has a sterling reputation for providing top of the line baseball analysis and the 2009 Season Preview belongs in any fan’s baseball book collection.

Our thoughts here on Bobby Abreu are not exactly news. At this stage in his career, Abreu is a solid hitter on the decline who plays poor defense at a corner outfield position. There are several players who fit this description still available on the market, which supply and demand in economic theory suggests will drive down their price. Add onto that how teams are seemingly becoming more fiscally responsible this winter and it comes as no surprise that Abreu’s desired 4-yr/$60 mil or whatever deal is terribly unrealistic.

Jerry Crasnick reported yesterday that Abreu would “be willing to settle” for deals similar to Raul Ibanez and Milton Bradley. The latter two signed deals hovering around 3-yr/$30 mil. Ibanez, though perhaps lesser of a hitter, is a solid comp for Abreu, as both are getting up there in age, losing offensive value, and watching their defensive values drop from bad to awful.

When Adam Dunn, six years younger and more productive offensively, is struggling to land a multi-year deal, the likelihood of Abreu signing an Ibanez/Bradley deal again is very unrealistic. Then, today, reports surfaced that Abreu would be willing to accept a 1-yr deal. I’m not sure how this qualifies as a conscious decision from Abreu. He has to accept a 1-yr deal if he wants to play baseball in the major leagues this season. Nobody is going to sign him to a multi-year deal in this climate.

Perhaps he and his agent can feel better about themselves since taking the initiative makes it appear as if they have arrived at this conclusion, but they were forced to accept a 1-yr deal. As a rightfielder, Abreu projects to around +1.45 wins. As a DH, closer to +1.9 wins. The positional adjustment for DH is stiffer than it is for corner outfielders, but Abreu’s terrible defense added onto the adjustment comes out worse than the DH adjustment.

As a corner outfielder, his fair market value for a 1-yr deal is $6.5 mil. At DH, $8.6 mil. I can see him signing a 1-yr/$10 mil contract, but things could easily go the other way based on what happens with Dunn, Manny Ramirez, Garrett Anderson, and Ken Griffey, Jr. No matter how one chooses to dissect Abreu’s eventual signing, if he signs for anything more than $6.5 mil as a corner outfielder, he better exceed his projection for the sake of the team. The best bet for any interested parties is to put him at the DH spot where his lack of defensive ability can be hidden.

Earlier this offseason I penned a couple of posts discussing the similarities and differences of both Andy Pettitte and Derek Lowe. At those stages, both pitchers were being heavily pursued by the Yankees and it seemed more than likely that only one of them would don pinstripes. Many were calling for Lowe to join a “super-rotation” already featuring CC Sabathia, Chien-Ming Wang, A.J. Burnett, and Joba Chamberlain. A few commenters aptly asked what the big difference was between Lowe and Pettitte.

In fact, some outright claimed that Pettitte was the better decision because a) his stats and projection were not unsimilar to those of Lowe, and b) Pettitte would only require a 1-yr deal. Lowe eventually signed a 4-yr/$60 mil deal with the Braves that came very close to properly valuing his projected contributions.

Over the last three seasons, Lowe has averaged +4.4 wins, with Pettitte at +4.2. Factoring in a bit of decline, both appear to be capable of 3.6-4.0 wins next season. At +3.8 wins, Pettitte’s fair market value is $17.1 mil. At +3.4, $15.3 mil. And, at +2.8, $12.6. Why those numbers? Well, Pettitte signed yesterday for $5.5 mil guaranteed with incentives potentially bumping the deal up to $12 mil. Those different win calculations were examples of my own thinking out loud to see how the Yankees are valuing his contributions.

I would venture a guess that the incentives are very easily reachable for someone with Pettitte’s track record. Otherwise, I’m sure he would have worked harder to increase the guaranteed portion of the contract. The Yankees are adding someone with similar win value to that of Lowe, for one year, and a lower average annual value. And, they are apparently paying a +3.7 or so win player as a +2.6 win player, assuming the incentives kick in.

Many are claiming that Pettitte is the “fifth” starter. Well, for all intents and purposes, that is one extremely good fifth starter given his likely #2 or #3 spot on 70% of the remaining teams out there. His signing isn’t blocking anyone outside of, say, Phil Hughes, but perhaps the team feels he needs another year split between the bullpen and rotation before he is deemed ready. Either way, Pettitte’s contract is up after this year, so the roadblock will go away. Overall, a great contract for the Yankees. Many people underestimate how effective Pettitte can be.

At just 23 years of age, Joba Chamberlain has already proven himself to be an incredibly dominating force. In 124.1 big-league innings, the Nebraska native has posted a 2.49 FIP exceeded by a 2.17 ERA. He has been fanning batters at a rate of 11 per nine innings while keeping his BB/9 right around 3.2. Despite these gaudy numbers, where he belongs is actually discussed much more than what he has done.

The Joba camp is split: some want him in the rotation while others feel he best serves the team in a setup man capacity. As RJ showed not too long ago, outside of closers, most other relievers simply are not worth that many wins. Ryan Madson had a very solid season and produced no more than +1.3 wins. It’s tough to surpass the production of Hong-Chih Kuo, and he managed +2.4 wins.

Last season, Kuo posted a 2.28 FIP in 80 innings. Is Joba’s projection as a reliever really that much better than Kuo’s 2008 performance, even with the added leverage taken into account? Unless the level of important in his innings are absolutely off the charts, I cannot see Joba as anything north of +2.6 wins as a reliever.

For his best utilization to come as a reliever, his projection as a starter would need to be below that output. The projections on our site are quite low for Joba, but a compromise of 150 IP at a 3.68 FIPRA, in his 9.35 run environment, pegs him at +3.8 wins. In other words, if he suffers a vast decline in FIP with the added workload, Chamberlain still ends up over a full win more productive as a member of the rotation.

How would he produce below +2.6 wins as a starter in 150 IP? He would need approximately a 4.40 FIPRA in 150 innings, which translates to a 4.10 FIP, to be exactly +2.6 wins. Basically, the only way it makes any sense to use him out of the bullpen is if the Yankees think Chamberlain can really surpass Kuo’s 2008 season or if, for whatever reason, they feel his numbers will sharply dropoff to a 4.10 FIP. In other words, it would take an awful lot for his usage in the bullpen to make sense.

Just like Johan Santana in 2003, Joba is much too good to be used as a one-inning reliever. If he fails as a starter, fine, put him in during the eighth inning, but do not waste the electric stuff of this 23-yr old phenom without at least trying.

Sean Casey never had exceptional talent, never carried a team to the World Series, and never finished higher than 14th in MVP voting, a feat he accomplished just once. Still, for 12 seasons, he averaged a tidy .302/.367/.447 line, good for an .353 wOBA. Nicknamed “The Mayor” for his affable personality and spirit, Casey seemed to take over the face of the franchise tag when Barry Larkin’s career ended. At 35 years old, and coming off of a ~200 PA season with the Boston Red Sox, Casey has decided to retire.

Drafted by the Indians in 1995, Casey would debut as a 22 yr old in 1997. He amassed just 10 PA for the Tribe that season, and found himself traded for Dave Burba prior to 1998’s opening day. His tenure in Cincinnati did not begin as he would have hoped, as Casey missed virtually the entire month of April. He also missed the equivalent of a month from May 20-June 21. Overall, as a rookie, Casey hit .272/.365/.417 in 96 games with a .345 wOBA.

In 1999, he experienced the opposite of a sophomore slump, when he made the all-star team and finished 14th in MVP voting. Casey hit a gaudy .332/.399/.539, a .938 OPS and .398 wOBA. The Mayor knocked 25 balls out of the park, fell three hits shy of 200, and produced 33 runs above average with the bat alone. His UZR is not available prior to 2002, but given the positive marks from 2002-04, it is safe to assume his reputation as a solid fielder was not ill-derived.

The following season his BABIP regressed a bit but Casey still posted a .315/.385/.517 line. His wOBA of .388 did not portend a true sense of falling off, but it would take Casey three more seasons before again matching this offensive output. In 2004, Casey hit 24 HR with a .389 wOBA in 146 games. Again, he earned a spot on the all-star roster.

His wOBA dropped to .349 in 2005, and in a cost-cutting mode, the Reds sent Casey to the Pirates in exchange for Dave Williams. Casey immediately became the face of Pittsburgh’s marketing campaigns, as he discussed the future of the team in commercials with Bill Mazeroski. His time in Pittsburgh was short-lived, though, and halfway through the season the Tigers acquired his services. In 53 Games for the World Series bound Tigers, Casey posted a putrid .272 wOBA. Coupled with league average fielding at first base, Casey fell below replacement level for the first time in his career.

The Tigers trotted him out as their first baseman in 2007, and in 143 games The Mayor produced +0.1 wins. It seemed clear that his years of effectiveness were far behind the former all-star, but he was not a defensive liability and there are far worse players a team can carry on the bench. Theo Epstein and the Red Sox recognized this and signed him prior to the 2008 season. In limited action, Casey put together a relatively nice season with a .344 wOBA. In half the playing time he matched his 2007 win value of +0.1.

He walks away from the game with a .353 wOBA, 130 HR, over 1,500 hits, and over 100 offensive runs above average. The personable Casey immediately joined the MLB Network team in an undetermined analyst role. For 12 seasons, Casey combined some talent with a surplus of humility and fun, proving to be one of baseball’s most colorful characters in the process.

The Mets and GM Omar Minaya have had a very active offseason, most notably acquiring both Francisco Rodriguez and J.J. Putz. Reliever Sean Green and OF Jeremy Reed also came over in the Putz trade, and Minaya inked both SP Tim Redding and IF Alex Cora to low-risk, one-year deals. This week, he made three more signings: one solid, one average, and one that makes little sense given a previous move. Let’s start with the solid.

Freddy Garcia used to be a very good pitcher. From 2002-06, his minimum IP total was 201.1, and he averaged +3.6 wins/season. In 2007, Garcia logged 58 ineffective innings for the Phillies before spending the rest of the season on the disabled list. He did not return until the very end of the 2008 season, when the Tigers allowed him to toe the rubber for three starts. Little can be drawn from his 15 innings of work, but with so many suitors this winter, it seems like a safe assumption that Garcia has recovered from his injury.

Freddy eventually decided to choose between the Mets and Yankees, choosing to sign with the Mets since a greater opportunity to join the rotation existed. The deal is incentive-laden and could prove to be worth $9 mil in value. The exact terms are not yet known, but assuming the base salary is a maximum of $2 mil, Garcia would need to be nothing more than +0.5 wins to break even. In 2007, when he posted a 5.45 FIP in 58 innings, he still produced +0.2 wins, making it extremely likely that he will meet or surpass +0.5 wins this season.

The average signing involves Rob Mackowiak, who inked a minor league deal worth $600K. The versatile Mackowiak played just 38 games for the Washington Nationals last season, playing league average outfield defense with a .224 wOBA. His offensive struggles were not terribly exploited, however, as he only amassed 63 PA. With Alex Cora already on the roster as a backup infielder, should Mackowiak make the club he will likely be used as nothing more than a pinch-runner, outfield defensive replacement. Although Mackowiak may be roadblocked by the move detailed below.

The very questionable move saw Minaya sign former Rockies OF Cory Sullivan to a major league deal worth $600K. Based on reputation, Sullivan is nothing special as a hitter but solid in the outfield. The numbers beg to differ. In his four-year career, Sullivan has averaged -6 runs with the bat and -5 runs with the glove. Numbers defying his reputation does not make this move questionable. No, what makes it questionable is that they already have Jeremy Reed on the roster.

Reed and Sullivan are not the exact same player, but, at the very least, they have very similar skillsets. Since 2005, Reed has been ever so slightly worse with the bat, but equally better with the glove. And this is before even mentioning that Angel Pagan is also on the roster. Yes, Ryan Church may be fragile and Daniel Murphy may not be proven, but loading up on players like Reed and Sullivan, who are a tad overrated as fielders and subpar hitters does not make a whole heck of a lot of sense.

The Mets have definitely upgraded their bullpen this season, but color me unimpressed so far with regards to their offense and rotation uprades.

The baseball world lost its oldest former player yesterday, when 100-yr old Bill Werber passed away. Last summer, and practically up until September, Bill and I shared several conversations. The last living teammate of Babe Ruth, and member of the great 1939-40 Cincinnati Reds teams, Werber had been helping me with research for a book on Bucky Walters. I quickly learned that, despite his age, Werber’s memory surpassed many of those not even one-third of his age.

Bill received his first major league callup in 1927 as a member of the Yankees. He didn’t see any playing time but was told it would benefit him greatly to sit on the bench and learn from the likes of Babe Ruth, Lou Gehrig, and skipper Miller Huggins. The boys largely ignored him, though, as the callup came in the midst of a pennant race, and he felt very alone. His official career would not begin until 1930, three years later, when he played a mere four games with the Bronx Bombers.

Three more years later, as a 25-yr old, Werber found himself traded to the arch-nemesis Red Sox after just three games in Yankees pinstripes. In 108 games with Boston, Bill hit .259/.312/.379, a .323 wOBA worth -2.6 runs below average. Perhaps the experience was all he needed, because Werber went on a tear from 1934-1940, putting together a very impressive 7-yr run. In that 1934 season, his best, he hit .321/.397/.472, an .868 OPS and .400 wOBA that produced +34 runs above average.

From 1935-1940, even though he failed to match the .400 wOBA, the same metric ranged from .358-.375. Never much of a slugger, the bulk of Werber’s success came in the ability to get on base. In the same 7-yr span, his OBP ranged from .357-.397. In 1934, as you will soon hear below, Werber injured his toe and was never the same player again. His statistics do not suggest anything of the sort. As an interesting sidenote, he is also the first batter to ever appear on a televised major league game, a fact he had no idea about for quite some time.

He retired twice, once after the 1941 season, and once more after the 1942 season. How he was coaxed back into the major leagues after the first retirement will be left to Mr. Werber himself to explain. All told, Werber finished his 11-yr career with a .357 wOBA and +86.8 batting runs above average.

To honor the former three-time stolen base champion and igniter of the 1939-40 dynamic Reds teams, I have pieced together eight minutes of one of the recorded interviews I have with him. He will explain how he injured his toe, which happens to be one of those zany injuries, as well as how his career ended on two different occasions. Lastly, he will explain how the Reds infield of Frank McCormick, Lonny Frey, Billy Meyers, and himself came to be known as “The Jungle Club.” In advance, let me apologize for the quality, as this interview was conducted more for research purposes and I didn’t expect to publish any of it.

Philadelphia Phillies GM Ruben Amaro, Jr has had his hands full this offseason. Not a ton has been done with regards to the free agent market, but seemingly half the team was eligible for arbitration this year and only one player, Ryan Howard, may actually go to court. Amaro managed to settle with the likes of Joe Blanton, Shane Victorino, Chad Durbin, Eric Bruntlett, and Clay Condrey. He also signed Greg Dobbs, Cole Hamels, and Ryan Madson to contract extensions.

The most recent player to sign such an extension was Jayson Werth, a rightfielder who soared under the radar to produce a +4.7 win season in 2008.

Now, some of Werth’s worth may have been inflated due to facing predominantly lefthanded pitching to start the season. He feasts on lefties (as evidenced by his MLB-leading 16 HR against southpaws) and didn’t have to face righties while platooning with Geoff Jenkins. Had he faced righties more often, his value may have diminished a bit. No matter how you slice it, though, he was one of the most valuable Phillies last season, combining 20 HR/20 SB offense with a +16 UZR rating.

The 2-yr deal will pay Werth $10 mil. He will earn $3 mil in 2009, a third of which comes as a signing bonus. The remaining $7 mil will become his salary in 2010. With the signing, both sides were able to avoid arbitration, where their figures differed by only $1 mil — $4 mil from Werth, $3 mil from the team. The deal buys out his final arbitration year as well as his first free agent season.

Next season, Werth projects to about +15 runs with the bat and +8 in the field. He will be the full-time starter meaning his adjustments for value above replacement and position will rise. Assuming 140 GP and 600 PA, Werth projects to +3.6 wins. At fair market value, that is $16.2 mil. Since he was eligible for arbitration, however, the 40/60/80 modifier comes into play. Even if we took 20% of his fair market value, $3.2 mil, the Phillies still walk away as big winners here.

At around +3.2 wins in 2010, assuming a slight decline, Werth’s fair market value would command around $15 mil. The Phillies have a player likely to produce close to +7 wins and $31 mil for one-third of the price.