The offseason for the Atlanta Braves certainly has not gone as planned. Making headlines more for controversy surrounding departures, trade rumors and pending agreements than actual acquisitions, GM Frank Wren has had his hands very full. After missing the playoffs for the third consecutive season, the Braves had hoped to enter the 2009 campaign with, at the very least, a retooled starting rotation. The team has also been linked to a few hitters but, as of right now, they are either off the table or not yet donning the Atlanta uniform.

With Tim Hudson out for at least half of the 2009 season, the contracts of Tom Glavine and John Smoltz expired, and Mike Hampton taking his medical history to Houston, the only pitchers assured of returning were Jorge Campillo and Jair Jurrjens. Wren then acquired Javier Vazquez from the White Sox to bolster the rotation. The Braves were believed to be big players in the Jake Peavy sweepstakes, but things seemingly went haywire with regards to that potential deal.

The Padres expressed interest in Yunel Escobar as part of the return, but the Braves were hesitant to add him to the mix. The Peavy talks then escalated with the Cubs, as Escobar’s supposed backup, Brent Lillibridge, was shipped to the South Siders as part of the Vazquez deal. When the Padres came back to the Braves, Wren became even more hesitant to include Escobar given that Lillibridge no longer belonged to the organization. And this isn’t even including the rumored Escobar-for-Ryan Ludwick deal that surfaced back in November.

Things would get even more peculiar, though Wren did start off nicely by inking David Ross to a 2-yr/$3 mil deal to backup Brian McCann.

Perhaps the team felt that Escobar actually was expendable as they heavily pursued free agent shortstop Rafael Furcal. Forgive me for not delving deep into all of that drama, but the reports that circulated involved stories of gentleman’s handshakes and agreements to sign. In fact, according to several websites, the signing had all but taken place. I remember because several of the writers here, myself included, discussed who would pen the analysis.

Before long, Furcal had returned to the Dodgers and the Braves had reportedly cut ties with his agency group. The “disrespectful actions” soon turned into a he said/she said match of which Furcal took no part.

Then, the unthinkable happened, as John Smoltz inked a one year deal with the Red Sox. Both the Braves and Red Sox offered Smoltz incentive laden contracts, but the Sox must have had provided a higher base salary. Regardless, Chipper Jones became furious that the team allowed Smoltz to leave, and the Braves ownership seemed incredulous that Smoltz could leave.

From there, things began to turn around. Kenshin Kawakami, a 33-yr old right-handed pitcher from Japan, signed a 3-yr deal to join the rotation. The Braves also became the apparent frontrunners in the Derek Lowe sweepstakes, potentially forging together a rotation of: Derek Lowe, Javier Vazquez, Jair Jurrjens, Jorge Campillo, and Kenshin Kawakami.

The Braves are also considered to be among the few realistic suitors for Adam Dunn and have even been linked to Andruw Jones. Whether or not anything happens remains to be seen, but this has definitely been anything but an ordinary offseason for Frank Wren.

It is not likely that he will acquire Ryan Ludwick or Jake Peavy. And regardless of how the Furcal and Smoltz situations played out, neither will play for Atlanta next year. Don’t let what has not happened sour the entire offseason, however, as they did look aggressive in quickly snatching up Ross, going after Vazquez, signing Kawakami, pursuing Lowe, and emerging as a potential destination for Dunn. A picture-perfect offseason? Heck, no. A successful one, nonetheless? Let’s revisit that come March, but signing Lowe and Dunn may help fans in Atlanta forget the Smoltz and Furcal tabloid-like drama.

Pedro Martinez is no doubtedly a Hall of Fame pitcher and one of the best in the history of the sport. In fact, many feel that his 1999-2000 seasons are the best of all time. Right now, though, his durability has seemingly fallen by the wayside and his performance has suffered from decline as well. After pitching for the New York Mets the last few seasons, Martinez has hit free agency once more, this time in one of the biggest buyer’s markets we have seen.

Which makes it somewhat surprising why he has reportedly turned down a 1-yr/$7 mil offer from an unknown team.

Granted, this team apparently plays in the American League, and it would be very understandable for any pitcher to prefer the friendlier confines of the senior circuit. Still, one has to wonder whether or not his motives lie in the above reason or if they stem from $7 mil being too low for his liking.

From 2006-08, Pedro has spent his fair share of time on the disabled list, averaging just 16 starts and 90 innings per season. His ERA in that span is around 4.75 and his FIP is not too far behind. Suffice it to say, the Pedro pitching right now is a far cry from the dominating force at the turn of the millennium. Still, he has value as a starting pitcher, but $7+ mil in value?

To find out his worth, let us turn to the projection systems. Bill James seems to be the outlier here, with Marcel and CHONE placing Martinez in the same general vicinity of performance. As it stands, Pedro projects to pitch around 105 innings with a 4.70 FIP. The replacement level in the National League, for starting pitchers, is right around 5.50.

The issue with his performance deals more with his actual playing time. Given his recent history, 175-200 innings simply does not look even close to feasible. At 105 innings, his current projection, Pedro would be worth +9 runs, or under one win. At fair market value, that commands a salary of $4.3 mil.

Perhaps the 105 innings is too low given that he has had ample time to recover from injuries. What if he logs 150 innings this season with a 4.70 FIP? In that scenario, Pedro would allow 78 runs compared to the 92 surrendered by a replacement starter. This advantage of +14 runs converts to around +1.4 wins, a fair market value of $6.7 mil.

Judging by these calculations it appears that Martinez either:

a) Wants to pitch in the NL even if his salary is below $7 mil,
b) Believes he can exceed 150 IP while sustaining an FIP near 4.70, or
c) Feels that even if maxes out at 150 IP, his FIP will be much better than 4.70

For the sake of semantics, I don’t mean to suggest that Pedro uses FIP or calculates his value above replacement level, but rather that he believes he will surpass these projections. At 150 IP and a 4.70 FIP, he is worth $6.7 mil, very close to the $7 mil deal he just turned down. If we assume that he does not care about league as much as money, which could be a faulty assumption, let’s see what he would have to do in scenarios b and c to be worth more than $7 mil.

If he sustains a 4.70 FIP in 2009, to be worth more than $7 mil, Martinez would need to produce at least +1.5 wins. In terms of our calculations, he needs to be about +15 runs above replacement. After 150 innings, though, the 4.60 FIP for a replacement level reliever comes into play because a replacement level starter isn’t going to pitch more than 150 innings. To reach +15 runs, do you know how many innings Pedro would need to pitch? I’ll give you a hint as to the general range: at 200 innings of 4.70 FIP pitching, he still wouldn’t be there.*

*-You may be wonderng how he could be worth +14 runs at a 4.70 FIP in 150 innings yet need 70 more innings at that FIP to gain one more run of production. The reasoning is that the replacement level FIP for an NL reliever is 4.60, which is actually better than Pedro’s projected mark. Therefore, his production at any FIP above 4.60 will look better in just 150 innings than it will after the fact because his 4.70 projection is worse than the 4.60 replacement level for relievers.

Pedro would need the replacement level FIP for NL relievers to be above 4.70 for him to be able to amass +15 runs with a 4.70 FIP himself.

What about the other scenario, the one involving around 150 innings with an FIP much better than 4.70? If he posts a 4.60 FIP in 150 innings, his production is +15 runs. At a 4.50 FIP and 150 innings his production is +17 runs, and this runs total rises by two for every tenth shaved off of his FIP in 150 innings. And also, with a 4.50 FIP or lower, he does not lose any value when the reliever calculations come into play.

Basically, for Pedro to be worth $7+ mil, assuming there is no way he exceeds 170+ innings, he needs to reach any of the following:

a) 150+ IP at a 4.60 FIP
b) 140+ IP at a 4.50 FIP
c) 130+ IP at a 4.40 FIP
d) 115+ IP at a 4.30 FIP

These options do not look too unrealistic given what his performance could look like if he is fully healed. If he can meet or exceed the scenarios listed above, his fair market value will exceed $7 mil based on production alone, before even factoring in what he adds to attendance and, potentially, merchandise.

We do not know the true motive behind his rejection of the 1-yr/$7 mil deal, but it does not seem to be as ludicrous of a decision based on the above calculations. How the buyer’s market will effect him is yet to be seen, but he likely has at least one somewhat effective year left in him.

Earlier this offseason, Roy Oswalt expressed interest in restructuring his contract in order to allow GM Ed Wade to effectively explore the free agent market. Owner Drayton McClane did not allow this to happen but it presented an interesting scenario nonetheless. The MLBPA does not allow players to take paycuts, per se, but restructuring deals are still fair game. Then again, the restructuring needs to be done carefully so as to avoid any type of “wrongdoing” to the player.

For instance, if a player is owed $10 mil/yr for four seasons, he may be able to restructure his contract so that he makes just $6 mil in years three and four. In exchange for earning lesser money in those contracted seasons, the player could receive another year on the deal, an option built in, or even the “lost” money deferred after the original contract normally would have expired.

I bring this up only because, while Oswalt did not get to restructure his deal with the Astros, Ned Colletti was able to restructure the ugly contract given to Andruw Jones. Jones signed a 2-yr/$36.2 mil deal prior to last season and proceeded to put up sub-Michael Bourn numbers in limited action.

With Matt Kemp and Andre Ethier guaranteed starting spots, Juan Pierre realistically staying put, and the club’s desire to re-sign Manny Ramirez, Jones has no spot on the team. He asked the Dodgers to trade him this offseason, but being owed ~$22 mil in salary and bonuses is anything but appetizing for teams. Why would they want to pay Manny Ramirez money for someone who just put up 1/8 of that caliber of production?

According to Cot’s Contracts, an absolutely invaluable website for anything and everything contract-related, the restructured contract will see up to $12 mil of his remaining money deferred over the next six seasons, without interest. Jones’ original deal was backloaded to begin with, and the new contract will save the Dodgers plenty of money this season. It also turns Jones from a high-risk/medium-reward player into a low or medium-risk/medium-reward player, given that he will be owed so little money. And, assuming the team releases Jones, allowing another to sign him for a $1 mil or less deal, he is very low risk with the potential for very high reward.

The Braves have reportedly expressed interest, but it will be extremely interesting to see what happens with a very cheap Andruw Jones given the circumstances of the current outfield market. Does Andruw Jones at $600K after being released make someone like Abreu seem less worthy than the $9-10 mil he may have to settle for? Does it make no difference? Regardless, Andruw Jones will no longer play for the Dodgers, but the situation looks like it was handled well, as his production in no may merited the original fee, but the contract will not be an albatross or deterrent to other teams.

The Philadelphia Phillies, fresh off their 2008 World Series Championship, will enter the 2009 season a bit short-handed. Their most valuable player, Chase Utley, underwent surgery after the playoffs and may miss up to two months. And J.C. Romero, their lefty specialist, will miss 50 games after his controversial suspension. Losing Utley and Romero for approximately the same amount of time is very significant; it isn’t as if we are talking about Eric Bruntlett and Clay Condrey.

Several names were tossed around as potential replacements should Utley not be ready for opening day. Eric Bruntlett and Jason Donald, internal replacements, were the most popular two. Mark DeRosa found his name in the mix back during those Jake Peavy trade talks as well. The Phillies decided to throw another name into the mix when they signed Marcus Giles to a minor league deal earlier this week. Signing Giles to this $600,000 deal signals that the team expects Utley to miss some time and that they are not fully confident in Bruntlett and Donald filling the void.

Giles last played in the majors in 2007 for the Padres. In 116 games that season, he hit an awful .229/.304/.317. With a .283 wOBA, Giles produced -19 runs offensively. His -2 run defense did not make him any more valuable either. After adjustments, Giles was worth -0.4 wins, a far cry from the very productive version of himself seen from 2003-05.

From 2003-05, Giles posted wOBA marks of .396, .364, and .363, resulting in wRAA totals of +36, +12, and +20. His defense also proved to be very solid as well, as Giles posted UZR marks of +11, +5, and +4. In terms of win values, we are talking about +6.8 in 2003, +3.4 in 2004, and +4.9 in 2005. The 2004 season looks much lower due to Giles playing just 102 games. Prorated over the course of a full season and the total comes much closer to +4.7.

In 2006, though, his stumble began, as he produced -5 runs on offense while experiencing a sharp dropoff defensively to the tune of -8 runs. He plummeted from +4.9 wins to +0.9 wins.

Marcel projects Giles to post a .309 wOBA in approximately 250 PA next season. This would place him right around -5 runs on offense. If we assume that the -8 defensive runs in 2006 was too low and the -2 in 2007 may be a bit optimistic, then -4 runs seems like a nice compromise. His positional adjustment as well as adjustment for playing time add up to +9 runs, which cancels out with the -9 runs from offense and defense.

Essentially, Giles is the definition of a replacement player next season. He costs just $600,000, is projected to provide replacement level production, and is only being called upon due to Utley’s injury. Of course, if he truly has overcome an injury that supposedly lingered from 2004, and can prove he still has some semblance of production, then the Phillies may have found themselves a significant upgrade over the likes of Bruntlett.

Filling the void left by Romero also presents both internal and external options. GM Amaro has stated that the team will not spend much money to replace him, and JA Happ could be a viable alternative already on the roster. Of course, Happ is likely the best option for the fifth spot in the rotation. If he finds himself in the bullpen, Scott Eyre will likely take over Romero’s role while Happ takes over Eyre’s longer duty role.

The other names being tossed around are Casey Fossum, Will Ohman, Eddie Guardado, and Joe Beimel. Fossum projects the worst of this bunch, literally at replacement level. Guardado looks like a +0.25 win pitcher, with Beimel coming in at +0.40 wins and Ohman at +0.55 wins. None of these pitchers should cost the team more than $2.8 mil or so for a one year deal, but with a plethora of players heading towards arbitration, Happ making chicken-scratch (relative to MLB) looks like the most fiscally responsible solution.

Either way, the Phillies have some decisions to make regarding who will fill what voids, as two significant voids currently need filling. Utley’s is by far more significant than Romero’s, but fans of the defending champs can only hope that the likes of Giles, and Happ/Guardado/Beimel/Ohman/Fossum/whomever can help lessen the productivity lost by these players missing time.

Over the last few days we have taken a look at the remaining free agents on the market, be they Type A or Type B players. When a team signs a Type B free agent, they do not surrender a pick even though the team losing the player earns a supplemental pick. With Type A players, however, the signing team surrenders a pick, either in the first or second round, depending on their draft position. After covering Type A relievers and starting pitchers the natural step involves evaluating the available hitters with this classification. Unfortunately, this would result in a post discussing Bobby Abreu, Adam Dunn, Manny Ramirez, etc, players who have been covered like crazy here.

Fortunately, however, there are a few other Type A free agent hitters available. Jason Varitek is one of them, but the two of interest right now both play infield positions up the middle and share the same first name. In case the title or this lead-in did not give them away, the players in question are Orlando Hudson and Orlando Cabrera. Both are valuable players yet have seen their names mentioned rarely in the transaction rumors department.

Hudson, a second baseman, is currently 31 years old and coming off of an injury-plagued season that saw him partake in just 107 games. He hit .305/.367/.450 in a senior circuit that saw keystone cornermen average a .271/.338/.408 line. Since coming to the Diamondbacks prior to the 2006 season, he has also shown offensive consistency, posting OPS marks of .809, .817, and .817.

In 2006, with a .346 wOBA, Hudson was worth +8 batting runs. The next season, his wOBA shot up to .361, almost doubling his run production to +15. He posted an almost identical .358 wOBA this past season, but the limited playing time suppressed his batting runs to +11. Prorated over the full season that is right in line with the +15 produced in 2007.

Defensively, Arizona has not been as kind, as Hudson has seen somewhat substantial dropoffs in his glovework since leaving Toronto. From 2003-05, as a Blue Jay, the O-Dawg posted UZR numbers of +3, +16, and +6. In Arizona from 2006-08, -4, -2, and -6. His offense has improved but seemingly at the expense of his defense. All told, over the last four seasons, our win values have him as +2.1, +2.5, +3.4, and +2.1. He looks like a half-win above average per season in this timespan.

In 2009, he projects to be worth +10 runs offensively and -4 runs defensively while earning +22 runs in adjustments. This would place Hudson at +2.8 wins, worth approximately $13.5 mil at fair market value. Over the life of a three year deal, if declines by a half-win each season, he would be worth +2.8 wins at $13.5 mil in 2009; +2.3 wins at $12 mil in 2010; and +1.8 wins at $10.5 mil in 2011. Put together, that is a grand total of right around +7 wins on a 3-yr/$36 mil deal.

Cabrera, 34, is a shortstop with the opposite skillset. He has been a very solid fielder over the last few seasons though not nearly as potent with the bat. In 2008, Cabrera hit .281/.334/.371 with the White Sox, a .705 OPS. The .705 was down from the .738 and .742 produced during the previous two seasons. In terms of wOBA, we are talking about a .329, .331, and .316 player since 2006, which translates to -1, 0, and -7 batting runs respectively.

With the glove, however, Cabrera has put up UZR numbers of +21, -1, +9, and +14 since 2005. When combined with his adjustments and offense, this Orlando has been worth +3.8, +2.9, +3.6, and +3.5 wins over the last four seasons. In 2009, he projects to be worth -10 runs on offense and +10 runs on defense. Therefore, his true value lies in the adjustments he receives for playing shortstop as well as an entire season with 700+ PA. Getting the full +7.5 runs per 162 games and +23.5 runs for his total number of plate appearances, Cabrera looks like a +3.1 win player next season.

+3.1 wins at $4.8 mil/win comes out to a 1-yr/$15 mil deal. If he signs for a 3-yr deal, with a slight discount for contract security, the deal would be closer to 3-yr/$42 mil at fair market value. If he declines by the same half-win each season then he is +3.1 at $15 mil in 2009; +2.6 at $13.8 mil in 2010; and +2.1 at $12.2 mil in 2011. Added up, that is almost +8 wins over a 3-yr/$41 mil deal, right around the aforementioned contract with a slight discount for security.

Neither of these players is likely to sign as lucrative of a deal, however, not just due to the market heavily favoring the buyers but also due to their Type A classification. Teams are clearly being more risk-averse this offseason in terms of signing players to lengthy and expensive contracts. On top of that, being Type A free agents will cost the signing teams either a first or second round draft pick. The Nationals have been linked to Hudson while the Royals and Athletics have been linked to Cabrera.

Outside of those three teams, just about nobody else has reportedly expressed interest in these two up the middle position players. The market for second basemen may be a bit more dried up than that of shortstops, but both of these players could end up as steals next season given that their contracts are very likely to fall vastly below their estimated fair market values. Now is the time to buy.

Players classified with the Type A tag are generally the big boys, the cream of the crop. These players are all amongst the top of their respective positions and tend to command larger and more lucrative contracts. The team signing a Type A free agent loses a draft pick, depending on its slot in the draft, which goes to the team losing the newly-signed player. Yesterday, we took a look at the three remaining Type A relief pitchers on the market. Naturally, the next step is to look at the available Type A starting pitchers.

CC Sabathia and A.J. Burnett signed with the Yankees, removing them from this post. Both project nicely though Burnett has had an unhealthy injury history. With both of these pitchers off the market, just four Type A starting pitchers remain free agents: Derek Lowe, Oliver Perez, Andy Pettitte, and Ben Sheets.

Lowe has been discussed here time and time again. He will be 36 years old halfway through the 2009 season but has been the most durable and consistent of this bunch. The Mets have a 3-yr/$36 mil offer on the table that he and agent Scott Boras all but scoffed at. Lowe is seeking closer to $16 mil/yr which may be unrealistic given the current market heavily favoring the buyers. With a projection calling for a 3.67 FIP in 185 innings, Lowe would be worth +3.5 wins in 2009.

Assuming a dropoff of -0.6 wins each season, then Lowe would be worth near +8.7 wins over the life of a 3-yr deal. If the current dollars per win rate is $4.8 mil/win, and 10% inflation occurs over the next few seasons, then Lowe would be worth +3.5 wins at $16.8 mil in 2009; +2.9 wins at $15.4 mil in 2010; and +2.3 wins at $13.4 mil in 2011. All told, that is $45.5 mil, and he is seeking somewhere closer to a 3-yr/$48 mil deal. As was mentioned in earlier posts, once negotiations are ended, I fully expect Lowe to sign for about 3-yr/$45 mil, which would properly value his projected contributions.

Andy Pettitte has a similar projection to that of Lowe’s, calling for a 3.75 FIP in 187 innings. Pettitte recently rejected the 1-yr/$10 mil offer from the Yankees, as he does not want to receive a salary lower than the $16 mil he made in 2008. Perhaps the Yanks will up their offer but Pettitte has flirted with retirement before, and it would not be terribly shocking to see him call it quits if he cannot receive the “right” offer.

Anyways, a 3.75 FIP in 187 innings would place him around +3.3 wins. Properly valuing his contributions would result in a 1-yr/$15.8 mil deal. Basically, Pettitte deserves the same salary relative to his projected production. Given the Yankees payroll and the fact that he would be a significant upgrade over someone like Ian Kennedy, it just makes sense to sign him to this deal. Will it happen, though? Who knows. Probably not.

Oliver Perez seems to be the odd man out of this group, not just because he is the only pitcher of the four under 30 years old, but also because he projects to be worth under three wins. Using FIP, Perez looks like a 4.60 pitcher in 180 innings. This would deem him +1.6 wins. Even if we amend the FIP to be closer to his projected ERA of 4.30, he is merely average, at +2.1 wins. Perez is not anywhere in the vicinity of Sandy Koufax, as Scott Boras has claimed, but he does have value. A 3-yr/$28 mil deal would make sense for Ollie, though I can see that deal upping itself to 3-yr/$36 mil when Lowe inevitably signs his 3-yr/$45 mil contract.

Lastly, that leaves Ben Sheets, arguably the most talented of the group albeit the most oft-injured. At 30 years old, Sheets is still relatively young, but he has proven to be very brittle. When healthy, he is a dominant force, but the caveat beginning this sentence should speak volumes towards his durability. In any regard, his projection calls for a 3.60 FIP in 180 innings, placing him around +3.4 wins. While Pettitte and Lowe are durable enough to garner 3-yr deals and Perez is young enough to merit a similarly lengthed deal, a more responsibly GM would offer Sheets a 2-yr deal with options that automatically vest due to playing time.

I could see a team like the Rangers signing him to a 2-yr/$28 mil deal with a third and even fourth year option. Again, he might be the most talented, but his resume does not necessarily make decision makers eager to dish out large sums of money over extended periods of time. Later on, we will look at the Type A free agent hitters available.

A flurry of moves took place yesterday, with Pat Burrell joining the Rays, Milton Bradley signing with the Cubs, and Jason Giambi going back to Oakland. With all of this activity it was very easy to miss the news that Phillies reliever J.C. Romero received a 50-game suspension after testing positive for a banned substance. Conflicting stories emerged, as did a plethora of opinions regarding whether or not the suspension was unfair.

Romero, a key component of the Phillies bullpen, claims that he bought a supplement from a GNC store in New Jersey over the summer. The supplement in question was not banned at the time of his purchase, yet made it onto a revised list issued a bit later on. He tested positive in September but took the case to arbitration, enabling him to remain eligible for post-season play.

The arbitrator shot down Romero’s claim and ruled he was guilty of negligence. This will ultimately cost Romero 50 games and $1.25 mil.

Thanks to Will Carroll, who wrote about the supplement in question, we have some new information which may or may not remove the sympathetic feelings one may develop towards Romero. From Will’s recent post:

According to multiple sources (and also reported by the Philadelphia Inquirer), Romero tested positive for 6-OXO Extreme, a product that enhances testosterone production in ways very similar to anabolic steroids. While legal and still available at your local GNC, 6-OXO Extreme* has always carried a warning that it could result in positive tests.

Unfortunately for Romero, 6-OXO is a product developed by a company owned by Patrick Arnold, the primary supplier of THG to Balco. And, according to Will’s post, the substance that tested positive was androstenedione, which may conjure up images of Mark McGwire in your mind.

My feeling is that, if Romero did in fact break the rules, he deserves to be punished. Phillies GM Ruben Amaro Jr. feels the same way, as his recent statement seemingly backed major league baseball as opposed to his own supposedly wronged player. Ouch. This case, however, features some extenuating circumstances, as Romero did buy the product prior to its banning.

And, on top of that, while newer bottles display a warning that the supplement may cause positive drug tests, the bottle presented by J.C. in his hearing did not. It really feels like he is getting jobbed here, or made an example of. Perhaps he should never have bought the supplement, but if it was legal at the time of the purchase, and the purchase date can be proven, 50-games seems very excessive. Then again, the MLBPA did issue a revised list that apparently did show OXO-6 as banned.

I’m a bit torn here. This seems like an excessive punishment given the case presented by Romero, but it really seems like he could have exercised a bit more caution. Then again, he did speak to several different sources that cleared the supplement as safe. Either the Phillies training staff needs to be re-evaluated or Romero is receiving unfair treatment. After all, he spoke with just about everyone on his team whose job is to ensure this does not happen, and yet it did happen.

Do I feel bad that he is suspended 50 games for something that realistically should not have happened, given the circumstances? Yeah, and doubly so since I’m a Phillies fan. Double-checking with your training staff is a good start, but still, there have to be other people to get second, third, and fourth opinions from when the consequences involve 50-game suspensions and $1.25 mil fines. Especially when I can read a Rob Neyer article, click a link, and discover that this supplement has andro.

These things should not happen, from the perspectives of Romero, the training staff, and the MLBPA.

A player gets classified as a Type A free agent if, when he hits the open market, he falls in the top twenty percent at his position. Unlike Type B free agents, who, when signed, produce a supplementary pick for the team losing the player not at the expense of the signing team, Type A free agents cost the signing team when it comes to the draft. Continuing our look at the remaining players on the free agent market, we will now turn to the Type A relief pitchers. Five such relievers fit this bill, of whom two have already signed.

Brian Fuentes signed a 2-yr deal with the Angels with a third year option that will trigger as long as he remains the closer for both years. That may be tough given the dual presences of Scot Shields and Jose Arredondo, but his signing did not cost the Angels much for performance that will not be a terrible dropoff to that of K-Rod. Rodriguez is the other Type A reliever to sign, when he inked a 3-yr/$36 mil deal with the Mets. This leaves three such relievers available.

Two of these pitchers, Trevor Hoffman and Russ Springer, could be members of the AARP. The other, Juan Cruz, comes in ten years their junior.

Hoffman, 41, is coming off of a relative down season. Sure, he is the leader in saves for a career, but one has to wonder how much left he has in the tank. His projection calls for 54 innings at around a 3.50 FIP. Plugging his projected runs allowed into the formula used to determine relievers value above replacement, Hoffman amounts to a .612 pitcher in a .451 league. Taking the difference, multiplying by innings pitched, and dividing by nine pegs Trevor as worth +0.97 wins next season. The leverage of these innings must be taken into account as well.

A closer will generally hover between LIs of 1.80 and 2.30, meaning Hoffman could be worth anywhere from +1.75 to +1.95 wins next season. At 41 years old, Hoffman could still command $8.5 to $9.5 mil at fair market value. Given his age and the performance decline in 2008 as well as the market favoring the buyers, I could see him signing a one-year deal in the $6 mil range, but nothing more. He might want another year to go out on top, but overvaluing him for career accomplishments would be a mistake.

His geriatric counterpart, Russ Springer, 40, has experienced tremendous success over the last two seasons as a member of the Cardinals. He has also been a workhorse over the last four seasons, with 62, 72, 76, and 70 appearances, respectively. In 2005 and 2006, Springer posted FIPs of 4.39 and 4.79, before a vast improvement to 2.83 in 2007 and 3.51 in 2008. His ERAs have improved as well, from 4.73 in 2005 to 2.32 in 2008.

Springer’s projection calls for a 3.42 FIP in 55 innings pitched. Plugging his numbers into the reliever formula places Springer at a winning percentage of .621. In a .451 league, this makes Springer a +1.05 win pitcher. Factoring in his inning leverage and Springer bumps up to +1.3 wins. Many teams have interest in Russ, and they should, given that he projects to be as valuable as, say, Ryan Madson was for the Phillies this past season. He might not receive a multi-year deal, but for one season at $4 or $5 mil, Springer could definitely strengthen a team’s bullpen.

That leaves just Juan Cruz, 30, who is coming off of three straight solid seasons. His ERA has improved from 4.18 to 3.10 to 2.61, with an FIP improvement from 4.09 to 3.70 to 3.62. We pretty much know what to expect from Cruz, given his recent track record: around 60-65 innings with a 3.30 ERA and 3.70 FIP. This makes Cruz a .623 pitcher. In a .451 league, he is worth around +1.2 wins. With leverage factored in, this bumps up to around +1.35 wins. At only 30, he should receive a multi-year deal, and the value may surpass that of Jeremy Affeldt’s, given the level of importance placed on bullpens, Cruz’s track record, and the fact that few relievers of his caliber are available. He is not necessarily a game changer, but he definitely helps a relief corps.

In a buyer’s market like the one we are currently witnessing, these three solid relievers could be had for much lesser than they would have signed for in other years. Expect to see a plethora of teams interested in Springer and Cruz, with Hoffman either going back to San Diego or signing on somewhere else for one last hoorah.

Earlier today, we began our analysis of the eleven hitters classified as Type B free agents. Milton Bradley projected to be the most valuable of the initial six players, at +2.9 wins, while Griffey the Kid’s +0.10 win projection clocked in as the bleakest. Bradley also ended up the youngest of the group, as Garret Anderson, Moises Alou, Mark Grudzielanek, Luis Gonzalez, and Griffey are all pretty up there in the years department. That trend continues as the remaining five players are added to the mix.

Jeff Kent and Frank Thomas are both 41 years old, and Paul Lo Duca and Ivan Rodriguez are 37 years of age apiece. This leaves Juan Uribe, just 29, but who perhaps plays like an older declining player.

R.J. covered The Big Hurt this morning and wondered if his injury from a few years ago is the reason behind his decline last season, or if his power is simply gone. I would be more inclined to think he bounces back with the stick if given the opportunity in 2009. Maybe not back to the +2-3 win seasons produced in 2006-07, but his projection calls for around +1 wins. If a team can sign Thomas to a one-year deal under $5 mil, it would definitely be worth the risk.

His 41-yr old counterpart, Kent, is coming off of an injury-plagued season in which he realistically lost his job. With Blake DeWitt, James Loney, and Casey Blake all returning, Kent does not fit into the scheme of things for the Dodgers. He still has value, though, as prior to the injury suffered in 2008, his wOBA marks still made him quite effective. The same cannot be said for his defense at the keystone, though, which has consistently been worse than -10 runs for four years running. At +10 offense and -12 defense, Kent could be worth anywhere from +1.5 to +1.8 wins next year, depending on playing time. An $8-9 mil deal for a 41-yr old second baseman showing big signs of decline may not be realistic, but under the right circumstances, Jeff could still be right around a league average player.

Due to position scarcity and the adjustment he receives for playing time, Pudge may end up being the second most valuable player of this entire 11-man group. His offense is almost a win below average, but if we assume +3 run defense in 130 games and near 500 PA, Rodriguez comes out to +2.05 wins and $9.8 mil. Will he get a deal paying him close to $10 mil/yr? Who knows, but projected production level in 2009 makes the 37-yr old backstop worth that price.

This leaves Uribe and Lo Duca, the former of whom tops out at +1 win as a shortstop and a bit lower at second base or third base. Lo Duca is nothing more than a backup catcher these days, but, in that role, he could be worth +0.80 wins. A team in need of a backup catcher with experience could do much worse than signing Paul to a 1-yr deal paying him $4 mil or under. He made $5 mil last season for the Nationals and Marlins. He is nowhere near an all-star anymore, but catchers with experience and some semblance of talent always have value.

All told, Bradley still ranks #1 at +2.9 wins, with Pudge in second at +2.05 wins, and Kent in third at +1.80 wins. They are Type B free agents for a reason, with that reason being that they fell out of the top twenty percent at their position in 2008, meaning these are not going to be elite players. Teams will not have to surrender a draft pick if they choose to sign any of these players, but this group is old, features some players who will or should retire, and doesn’t scream “sign me!” outside of perhaps Bradley. There are definitely a few Hall of Fame players in this mix, but they are at the very ends of their careers.

Continuing with our look at the Type B free agents available on the market right now, we will now venture into the land of offense. Eleven eligible free agent hitters were classified as Type B players by Elias this year. We will cover six of them now, and the remaining hitters tonight. The players of interest right now are: Moises Alou, Garret Anderson, Milton Bradley, Luis Gonzalez, Ken Griffey Jr., and Mark Grudzielanek. Bradley is the youngest of the bunch, but that isn’t saying much given his age of 31. This group has also experienced its fair share of injuries and decline.

Last season, their salaries ranged from Gonzo’s $2 mil with the Marlins to Griffey’s $12.5 mil from the 9-yr deal he signed back in 2000. Anderson made a lusty $12 mil as well, while Alou received $8.5 mil for very limited duty and Grudzielanek made $4 mil to play the keystone for the Royals. Bradley produced the best season of these six players and made just $5.25 mil. Suffice it to say, those on the high end of this group will receive lesser contracts while Bradley should see a somewhat significant raise. How do they look for the 2009 season?

Health has been an issue for Alou in recent years, as he has not played 150+ games since the 2004 season with the Cubs. Since then, he has participated in 123, 98, 87, and 15 games respectively. The guy can still rake, as evidenced by wOBA marks exceeding .385 from 2004-07, but his inability to stay on the field vastly reduces his value. If Moises can play around 90 games next season while amassing 300 PA, he could be worth around +0.80 wins.

At fair market value, that amounts to a one-year deal worth $3.7 mil. Unfortunately for Alou, the wide array of corner outfielders on the market this season drives down the price, meaning players like Pat Burrell and Bobby Abreu, who have better health histories and projections, could be had for much cheaper fees than, say, last season.

Garret Anderson has been covered here a couple of times, but he is the lone corner outfielder who actually projects better in the field than as a designated hitter. His defense projects more positively than his offense moving forward which says more for his offensive decline than defensive prowess. Anderson projects to be worth +0.75 wins next season, good for $3.6 mil. Something tells me he will sign somewhere for more than that, but given the amount of available outfielders, his price may legitimately be driven down this far.

Bradley produced a stellar season with the stick in 2008, despite missing some time with injuries. He is somewhat of a conundrum when it comes to the defensive side of valuations. See, Bradley has talent with the glove, as his UZR numbers will show, but it seems that playing the field fuels the injury fire and keeps him off the field and out of the lineup. Regardless, he has by far the sunniest projection for next season, at around +2.9 wins.

This calls for a $13.9 mil salary for a one-year deal. Again, given the amount of outfielders available, as well as the deal Pat Burrell recently signed for (AAV of $8 mil), it isn’t likely that Milton will earn anywhere near that fee. The Cubs have shown the most interest, and a 3-yr/30 mil deal similar to that recently signed by Raul Ibanez may be in the cards. He will have to prove himself capable of staying on the field long enough to play the field before his eventual contract can truly be evaluated.

Next up comes Luis Gonzalez. Gonzo has had a solid career that I will, in no way, try to detract from. However, after a 2008 season in which he actually cost the Marlins money, it is time to hang up the cleats. With a +0.50 win projection and a fair market value of $2.3 mil, not enough upside exists to merit signing him for anything other than veteran leadership and/or backup outfielder/pinch-hitting duty. Teams may be better-served to simply call up a prospect to fill the latter void.

As much as it pains me to say this: Griffey is now virtually a replacement player. He has been awful defensively lately while showing a strong decline with the bat. His representatives are attempting to pin a poor 2008 showing on a persisting injury kept hidden, but he currently projects to just +0.10 wins. Even if his supposed injury hindered his performance, I cannot imagine it bumps his projection up to anything more than +0.50 or +0.60 wins. These figures are still well below average. He is a no-doubt first ballot Hall of Fame player, but unless he is willing to accept a fee of $3 mil or under, not even his leadership will cause the deal to make sense.

Lastly, we have Mark Grudzielanek, who looks like a +1.6 win player in 2009. This would match his 2008 win value, even though his projection calls for around 90 games and 450 PA. He is a half-win below average on offense while playing close to +5 run defense at second base. He made $4 mil in 2008 and has tossed around the idea of retirement, but would be worth near $7 mil at fair market value. While players like Gonzo or Griffey realistically should retire, but likely won’t, Grudzy may be the opposite.

Tonight, we will review the remaining five Type B free agent hitters and come up with our end value rankings. So far, Milton Bradley is far and away the leader, with second place Mark Grudzielanek coming in at about 1.3 wins less valuable.