Yesterday we took a look at the five Type B free agent starting pitchers currently on the market: Paul Byrd, Jon Garland, Braden Looper, John Smoltz, and Randy Wolf. Today we will venture into the land of Type B relievers. What is a Type B free agent, though? Simply put, the top 20% at each position garner the Type A classification, and the next 20% become Type B players.

The rankings are determined by a specific formula implemented by Elias and an example of the end results can be found here. When a Type B free agent is signed, the team losing said player earns a supplemental draft pick. Unlike Type A free agents, however, the signing team does not have to surrender any picks. If a team does not offer its own pending Type B free agents arbitration, they will not earn any supplemental picks upon the departure of the free agent. This, as mentioned yesterday, happened with Smoltz.

Right now, six relievers on the market are classified as Type B players: Luis Ayala, Joe Beimel, Eric Gagne, Jason Isringhausen, Dennys Reyes, and Brian Shouse. To determine their fair market values, the formula introduced by TangoTiger and used most recently in Matt’s analysis of Brian Fuentes comes into play:

A: (RA + LeagRA) ^ 0.28
B: (LeagRA/RA) ^ A
Win%: B/(B+1)

After probing various projection sources to determine the RA numbers for these six pitchers, the results can be seen below:

NAME                  IP      RA
Luis Ayala            72     4.36
Joe Beimel            54     4.02
Eric Gagne            53     4.15
Jason Isringhausen    47     4.21
Dennys Reyes          51     4.08
Brian Shouse          53     4.08

Plugging the numbers above into the formula, assuming a replacement percentage of .451, as well as incorporating the leverage of innings pitched into the equation, here are the WAR results:

NAME                 WIN%     WAR
Luis Ayala          .514     +0.60
Joe Beimel          .550     +0.65
Eric Gagne          .536     +0.55
Jason Isringhausen  .529     +0.74
Dennys Reyes        .544     +0.62
Brian Shouse        .544     +0.60

And, with the going rate between $4.7-$5 mil per win, here are their fair market values as well as salaries earned in 2008:

NAME                2009 FMV   2008 SAL
Luis Ayala          $2.8 mil   $1.7 mil
Joe Beimel          $3.1 mil   $1.925 mil
Eric Gagne          $2.7 mil   $10 mil
Jason Isringhausen  $3.5 mil   $8 mil
Dennys Reyes        $3.0 mil   $1 mil
Brian Shouse        $2.8 mil   $2 mil

Relievers generally are not worth too many wins due to the small samples of performance, but all six of these pitchers project to be better than a half-win above replacement. Ayala is a workhorse, which makes him almost as valuable as the others despite the lowest winning percentage. He, Beimel, and Reyes are all 31 years old, the youngest of the group.

Gagne follows at 33 years old, but should not earn anywhere near the $10 mil Milwaukee signed him for prior to last season. Izzy is 36 and coming off of a poor, injury-plagued season. The projections see him bouncing back a bit, but his days as a dominant force are likely behind him. Shouse, a lefty specialist in every sense of the term, is 40, but still adds value. Much of the bullpen talk this offseason has centered around the closers like K-Rod and Fuentes, but here are six relievers that could be had on the cheap while strengthening a bullpen and not costing their new teams a draft pick.

Well, it is officially 2009, meaning pitchers and catchers report in less than two months. This offseason has seen CC Sabathia and A.J. Burnett sign extremely lucrative deals with the Yankees, Javier Vazquez shipped to the Braves, and negotiations begun on a deal between Derek Lowe and the Mets. As obvious as it may sound, starting pitching is very importance to the success of a team, and these teams have made great strides to strengthen their respective staffs.

There are several other options available on the free agent market, though, that would not require long-commitment/big-money contracts. Doubly important, their classification as Type B free agents means that the teams they eventually sign with do not have to surrender a first-round draft pick next season. As of right now, there are five such pitchers on the market: Paul Byrd, Jon Garland, Braden Looper, John Smoltz, and Randy Wolf.

Byrd is 38 years old and coming off of a relative down season spent with both the Indians and Red Sox. It did not seem to make much sense when the Red Sox acquired him last season and it won’t make much sense if he signs anything other than a 1-yr deal with little monetary investment. Byrd projects to log 175 innings with a 4.78 FIP next season. These numbers make him worth +1.2 wins. This below average projection pegs his fair market value at around $6 mil. If a team finds itself needing some veteran experience in the rotation, it could do worse than Byrd, but anything over 1-yr/$6 mil is really overvaluing his potential contribution.

Garland, 29, happens to be the youngest of this quintet. He has also been one of the more overrated pitchers in recent history. Garland has shown himself to be very durable, but his combination of good, not great, ERA figures with 200+ innings pitched has hidden his poor controllable skills. Next season, Garland projects to 184 innings at a 4.58 FIP. This makes him a +1.7 win pitcher, just slightly better than Byrd, and nine years junior. Jon is coming off of two consecutive seasons during which his salary exceeded $10 mil. At +1.5 wins, his fair market value is $8.5 mil. I can definitely see Garland signing a 3-yr deal somewhere, but fear that the signing team will pay much more than this fair market value. In fact, I would not be surprised if Garland signs a 3-yr/$36 mil deal similar to the one currently offered to Derek Lowe.

Next up is Braden Looper, of whom I wrote about not too long ago. Though Looper is 34 years old, I am very surprised his name is not being tossed around that much. His projections are sunnier than Garland and in the same vicinity as other pitchers making substantially more money. He also projects to 184 innings next season, but with a 4.42 FIP, deeming his value at +1.9 wins. Braden’s fair market value would then be $9.5 mil. A team looking for a safe bet to fill out the back end of their rotation would do themselves wise to sign Braden to a 2-yr/$18 mil deal.

John Smoltz, 41, is the elder statesman of the group as well as the most curious case. From 2005-2007, he easily surpassed the 200-innings plateau. Last year, however, injuries sidelined him for the majority of the season. Marcel has him pegged for 94 innings at a 3.50 FIP, numbers that fall vastly above or below his marks from the previous three seasons. Under this scenario, Smoltz would still be worth +2 wins. A more optimistic projection would see Smoltz pitch 190 innings with a 3.35 FIP, deeming him closer to +4 wins. Ideally, Smoltz would return for the Braves for one more season before hanging up his glove. Smoltz could be worth anywhere from $10-$20 mil next season, but he definitely has the potential to be the best of this group, even at 41 years of age.

Lastly, we have Randy Wolf, who has been linked to a slew of teams, including the Mets. The former all-star has seen his fair share of injuries over the last several seasons, but projects to log around 180 innings with a 4.40 FIP. These numbers, very similar to those projected for Looper, place Wolf around +2 wins, $10 mil. At 32 years old, a 3-yr deal would not be in the realm of absurdity, but his injury history may make him risky to some front offices. Whoever inks Wolf to a deal should include an option and performance bonuses to protect themselves if he should find himself on the familiar disabled list.

Later on tonight, we will look at the Type B relievers on the market.

Since 2006, the Philadelphia Phillies and New York Mets have held fort atop the NL East. The Mets ended the Braves streak of 138 consecutive division titles three seasons ago, coming within one game of reaching the World Series. The following season, both the Mets and Phillies battled down to the wire, with the Phils winning the division on the final day of the season. Last season, both teams again battled into September, with the Phillies clinching the division right before the season ended. This time, they went on and actually won the World Series.

The offseason has proved to be very active for both Omar Minaya and Ruben Amaro, Jr, even though Minaya’s transactions have meant more to his team.

With the vast majority of last season’s squad returning, Amaro’s moves have primarily come in the form of little pieces here and there. He brought in Ronnie Paulino from the Pirates to challenge Chris Coste for the backup catcher spot. Scott Eyre and Jamie Moyer both re-signed. Chan Ho Park joined the team to either take on a similar role to that of Chad Durbin last season and/or battle for the fifth rotation spot. And Raul Ibanez, in a much-maligned deal by many, replaced Pat Burrell in left-field.

Minaya acquired Francisco Rodriguez, J.J. Putz, and Sean Green to sure up a bullpen that ultimately cost the Mets the division last season. The lineup will return, in tact, and Derek Lowe may even be added to the rotation. Minaya has made a 3-yr/$36 mil offer to Lowe, though I would bet my bottom dollar that Lowe eventually signs for closer to 3-yr/$45 mil.

How do these teams stack up in 2009? Even though the Marlins are young and offensively talented, and the Braves acquired a solid pitcher in Javier Vazquez, the Phillies and Mets are still the top two teams in the division. Does one have a projected advantage over the other? Let’s break the analysis down into different facets of each team. And, for the record, the projections I arrived at were derived from the results of several different systems, weighted and merged, not just one system.

LINEUP
Both the Phillies and Mets have very potent offensive lineups. Both are also quite solid defensively. Chase Utley, the best player on the Phillies, had surgery following the World Series and may or may not be available for opening day. In calculating these projections, I placed Utley at around 130 games and 520 PA. His offensive and defensive contributions are also lessened due to the likelihood that he will miss some time.

The Phillies starting lineup, not in Charlie Manuel’s exact order, will feature the following players: Ryan Howard, Chase Utley, Jimmy Rollins, Pedro Feliz, Raul Ibanez, Shane Victorino, Jayson Werth, and Carlos Ruiz. As poor as Howard looks with the glove sometimes, he has actually been eerily close to average over the last few seasons, and projects to just barely below average next season. If he is considered to be a league average first baseman with the glove, then only Raul Ibanez projects negatively on defense for the defending champions.

Likewise, the Mets only project to feature one negative defender: Carlos Delgado. Luis Castillo could prove to be a poor defender with his injury history, but I currently have both he and Daniel Murphy as league average defenders. The remaining starters—Jose Reyes, David Wright, Carlos Beltran, Ryan Church, and Brian Schneider—all project positively on the defensive front.

All told, the Phillies project to +80 runs offensively in their lineup and +40 runs defensively. After adjustments to value production above replacement level as well as for their positions, the lineup comes out at +26.0 WAR. The Mets offense projects to +93 runs while their defense clocks in at +19 runs. After the same adjustments are taken into account, their lineup proves to be worth +26.1 WAR. Eerily similar.

STARTING ROTATIONS
Yesterday we examined the Mets rotation under a few different scenarios regarding whether or not they sign Derek Lowe, Oliver Perez, Randy Wolf, or Tim Redding. With an actual contract being presented to Lowe, and the likelihood that he will eventually sign, the Mets rotation should feature Johan Santana, John Maine, Mike Pelfrey, Derek Lowe, and Jonathan Niese. Assuming roughly 150 innings from Niese at a 4.45 FIP, this rotation projects to +14.3 WAR.

The Phillies will bring back Cole Hamels, Brett Myers, Jamie Moyer, and Joe Blanton. The fifth spot is going to be up for grabs between J.A. Happ, Kyle Kendrick, Carlos Carrasco, Chan Ho Park, and (gasp) Adam Eaton. As I mentioned yesterday, Happ is my pick to win the spot, which would place the Phillies rotation at +11.8 WAR. The teams may be virtually even in the starting lineup department, but the Mets have a +2.5 win advantage in the rotation.

BULLPEN
The Phillies re-signed Scott Eyre and brought in Chan Ho Park, leaving the rest of the relief corps in tact. Players like Gary Majewski and Dave Borkowski were invited to Spring Training, but would only take the spot of Clay Condrey if either were to make the team. Brad Lidge returns as the closer, with Ryan Madson setting him up. After these two, the Phillies will rely on J.C. Romero, Chad Durbin, Eyre, Park, and Condrey. This bullpen projects to be worth +3.4 wins next season.

The Mets replaced Billy Wagner with Francisco Rodriguez; Aaron Heilman with J.J. Putz; and added a solid piece in Sean Green. These three will join the likes of Pedro Feliciano, Duaner Sanchez, Brian Stokes, and Bob Parnell to form a much more formidable bullpen. This relief corps looks like it could be worth +3.6 wins next season. Though this advantage over the Phillies is slight, the ‘pen was a major achilles heel for the Mets last season.

BENCH
Benches are tough to project, again given the small samples of playing time as well as the uncertainty surrounding who will fill certain spots. Assuming Paulino beats out Coste for the backup job, the Phillies will feature some combination of: Greg Dobbs, Matt Stairs, Geoff Jenkins, Eric Bruntlett, Ronnie Paulino, and Jason Donald. Donald may be the odd one out of this group. Dobbs is the best pinch-hitter in baseball but is still likely worth under one win next season. Without Donald, these five project to +1.5 WAR.

The Mets will have Fernando Tatis and Jeremy Reed on their bench, as well as Ramon Castro. After that, it does not seem that any backup infielders are on the roster, and the only other bench players that seem like viable candidates to make the team are Angel Pagan and Nicholas Evans. Their bench could range anywhere from +0.6 to +1.2 wins. We can call it +0.9 for now, though this will need to be updated before the season starts. The Phillies have over a half-win advantage here, but this is the only area where they come out on top.

TOTALS
For the Phillies, we are looking at +26 wins from the lineup, +11.8 from the rotation, +3.4 from the bullpen, and +1.5 from the bench. This adds up to +42.7 wins. Given that a team chock-full of replacement players would win 47-48 games, the Phillies are projected to win 89-90 games in 2009.

The Mets will get +26.1 wins from the lineup, +14.3 from the rotation featuring Lowe and the aforementioned Niese projection, +3.6 out of the ‘pen, and +0.9 from the bench. This adds up to +44.9 wins, which we will round up to +45 wins. Added to the replacement wins total, the Mets are projected to win 91-92 games next season.

Once again, the teams are extremely close, and 2009 should treat fans to another stellar battle between the Mets and Phillies.

Omar Minaya made one of the first big offseason splashes when he signed Francisco Rodriguez to a 3-yr deal. K-Rod may be showing signs of decline, but with Billy Wagner on the shelf for most, if not all, of the season, the new single-season saves recordholder is a definite improvement over the likes of Luis Ayala and Aaron Heilman. Minaya then sent the aforementioned Heilman to the Mariners in a three team traded that netted the Mets two solid relievers: Sean Green and J.J. Putz.

His focus to date has been spent on the bullpen, which makes sense, given their struggles last season. Their starting rotation still has a spot or two to fill, though, and several players have been linked to the team.

Johan Santana, John Maine, and Mike Pelfrey will all be returning. After these three, several Mets bloggers believe that Jonathan Niese will win the final rotation spot. If not Niese, the Mets still have options in the forms of Brandon Knight and Nelson Figueroa. With 140 innings out of Niese, the current fearsome foursome may look like this next season:

Johan Santana     3.45 FIP     220 IP     +4.5 WAR
John Maine        4.35 FIP     180 IP     +2.1 WAR
Mike Pelfrey      4.08 FIP     185 IP     +2.8 WAR
Jonathan Niese    4.55 FIP     140 IP     +1.4 WAR

Before even adding the final piece to the puzzle that is their starting rotation, these four project to +10.8 wins. The four pitchers heavily linked to the Mets are: Derek Lowe, Oliver Perez, Randy Wolf, and Tim Redding. Here are the projections for these four:

Derek Lowe       3.67 FIP     185 IP     +3.7 WAR
Randy Wolf       4.35 FIP     175 IP     +2.0 WAR
Oliver Perez     4.60 FIP     180 IP     +1.7 WAR
Tim Redding      4.77 FIP     159 IP     +1.3 WAR

With Lowe added to the mix, which may come to fruition very soon, the Mets rotation jumps from +10.8 wins to +14.5 wins. If you recall the post yesterday on the Giants’ chances of contending, their solid starting rotation projects to +15.4 wins. Adding Lowe places the Mets right in the thick of perhaps sporting the best rotation in the senior circuit.

Adding Wolf bumps them up to a respectable +12.8 wins; Perez shifts the rotation from +10.8 to +12.5; and Redding adds +1.3 wins to put the starters at +12.1 wins. If they were to sign Lowe and then resign Perez, Niese theoretically gets bumped and the rotation would project to +14.8 wins.

Essentially, if Niese can manage 140 innings with a 4.55 FIP, his value will be incredibly similar to that of Oliver Perez. Of course, nobody knows if Niese can produce these numbers, but adding Lowe while keeping him in the mix produces +14.5 wins; spending plenty of money on Perez, while signing Lowe, adds a mere +0.3 wins. Given that Perez will likely command a salary upwards of 20 times that of Niese, it makes more sense to give the kid a shot.

Regardless, signing Lowe to an average annual value of $15-16 mil makes sense. If he declines by a 0.7 wins each year, given his age, then he goes from +3.7 to +3.0 to +2.3 wins. If we assume a conservative 7.5% inflation rate, his fair market values in these years would be $18.5 mil, $16.5 mil, and $13.8 mil, respectively. Added together, that equates to 3-yrs/$49 mil. The contract reportedly on the table is for 3-yrs/$45-$48 mil.

The next question is: How does this rotation compare to the Phillies? The defending champs will bring back Cole Hamels, Brett Myers, Jamie Moyer, and Joe Blanton. The fifth spot will be up for grabs between J.A. Happ, Kyle Kendrick, Carlos Carrasco, Chan Ho Park, and Adam Eaton. My pick is Happ to win that contest, which would peg their rotation to be worth +11.8 wins.

If these projections hold true, and Niese can manage the aforementioned workload/production, then the Mets could realistically sign Redding and still have an equal rotation to the Phillies. Bringing aboard Perez and Wolf elevates them. Signing Lowe gives the Mets approximately a +2.5 win advantage in this department.

Minaya has done a good job in strengthening the ‘pen with the additions of K-Rod, Putz, and Green. Bringing Lowe to The Big Apple will further strengthen their rotation and, in my eyes, make them the team to beat in the NL East next season. It hurts me to say that, as a Phillies fan, but it will sure feel that way if Lowe signs.

Following the 2007 season, the Los Angeles Dodgers seemingly had their outfield in order. Juan Pierre had signed a 5-yr/$55 mil deal prior to the season and was not about to sit on the bench. Flanking him would be prospects Matt Kemp and Andre Ethier. Ned Colletti then proceeded to sign Andruw Jones to a 2-yr/$36.2 mil contract, creating a logjam in the outfield and relegating someone to the bench in the process. With all of the money invested in Jones and Pierre, the odd man out had to come from Ethier and Kemp.

Jones produced a .234 wOBA and, despite a +3.7 UZR rating in centerfield, proving his worth to be -0.4 wins. He missed most of the season, opening up a spot for all three of Pierre, Ethier, and Kemp.

Manny Ramirez soon joined the team, once again creating a surplus of outfielders. Fans screamed for Pierre to sit on the bench and Ethier to receive plenty of playing time. Though Joe Torre did not immediately react to these please, he soon found it too difficult of a task to keep Ethier out of the lineup. Pierre became disgruntled, but Kemp and Ethier needed to play every day, and you do not acquire Manny Ramirez to sit on the bench.

Jones may have missed a good portion of the 2008 season, but he is still technically under contract. Pierre also has three more years remaining. Kemp and Ethier are pretty much guaranteed starting jobs next season, but who takes over the remaining outfield spot?

Manny Ramirez does not appear to be heading for as big a payday as he expected, meaning the initial 2-yr/$45 mil offer that the Dodgers withdrew may make the most sense. Should he re-sign with the Dodgers, Colletti will have the outfield that helped propel the team into the playoffs returning n tact. He will also have around $30 mil in outfielders sitting on the bench/not living up to their paycheck.

The most recent reports have Jones heading to the Mets. Unless the Dodgers are willing to take on a bad contract like the one belonging to Luis Castillo (of whom they have no interest), Colletti will have to pay the large majority of Jones’ salary. If Ramirez rejoins the team and Jones is dealt, then Juan Pierre may not be happy, but you could do much worse in the fourth outfielder department. The big issue there is that he will earn plenty of money to make contributions that do not necessarily merit that fee.

An even newer report has Adam Dunn talking to the Dodgers. I cannot imagine Colletti would sign both Dunn and Ramirez, meaning he will go for either one or the other. Both are all-hit/no-field corner outfielders. Their 2009 projections call for +3.5 wins for Manny and around +2.8 wins for Dunn. Dunn is several years younger than Ramirez and will cost less, as well. From an owner’s perspective, however, ManRam puts butts in the seats, and Dunn does not.

Regardless, Pierre could be very useful as a pinch-runner who stays in the game as a defensive replacement, occasionally garnering starts. For most Dodgers fans, it seems the ideal solution is to cut ties with both Pierre and Jones while bringing back Ramirez to play left-field. The Jones part of that solution may come to fruition very soon, but I would fully expect to see Pierre in Dodger-blue as a fourth outfielder come Spring Training 2009. Either way, Colletti definitely loves him some outfielders, as four are currently under contract already and two more have been heavily rumored to be signed.

Brian Sabean has been lampooned in the past for a wide array of his transactions. This offseason, however, he has done a very decent job in terms of bringing in the right personnel. Josh Phelps joined the team in order to platoon at first base with Travis Ishikawa. Then, Sabes inked Jeremy Affeldt and Bob Howry to fill out the bullpen. Edgar Renteria, coming off of a down year bound to regress, signed to replace Omar Vizquel. And, most recently, Sabean brought Randy Johnson to the rotation, finishing up quite the formidable pitching staff.

This all leads to one of the hottest topics on the inter-webs these days: can the Giants contend in 2009?

The simple answer is a yes given the context of the division. The Padres are in full rebuilding mode. The Diamondbacks have lost three key pieces in Orlando Hudson, Randy Johnson, and Adam Dunn. The Rockies traded away Matt Holliday and have been actively shopping Garrett Atkins. Even with a healthy Troy Tulowitzki, the Coors Gang is not all that threatening.

Lastly, even though the Dodgers will likely bring back Manny Ramirez, they will be losing ace Derek Lowe and relying on Jason Schmidt to help fill the void. The Dodgers will be the team to beat in the division, but they might not be as scary as some would think.

With this in mind, it seems that ~85 wins could net the division title for any of these teams. Do the Giants have what it takes to reach that threshold?

Their starting rotation, as mentioned above, is extremely stellar. R.J. called it potentially the best in the National League. Though this seemed like a stretch to many commenters, the projections for Tim Lincecum, Matt Cain, Randy Johnson, Jonathan Sanchez, and Barry Zito, range from +1.4 to +5.4 wins. Summed together, this quintet projects to be worth about +15 wins next season.

Affeldt and Howry joined a bullpen featuring the likes of Brian Wilson, Keichii Yabu, Billy Sadler, and Merkin Valdez among others. All of these relievers add up to around +3 wins. Considering that a team full of replacement players would win 50 games, before even venturing into the lineup, the Giants are up to 68 wins.

The lineup, however, is widely considered to be their achilles heel, as they do not really possess any terrific hitting talent. Phelps/Ishikawa look to platoon at first base. The projections for these two do not really tell the whole story, as they will be facing only opposite-handed pitchers. Ishi’s minor league equivalency is not all that sunny, either. These two combine to be about a league average hitter playing -5 run defense. This results in approximately +0.3 wins.

At the keystone corner, Emmanuel Burriss will apparently be logging most of the playing time. With only one year of data, we do not know all that much about Burriss. He appears to be a bit above average in the field while lacking any true offensive prowess. With adjustments for his position and production relative to the replacement level, not average, Burriss could range anywhere from +1.2 to +1.5 wins.

Renteria is a very interesting case, due to his disappointing 2008 campaign. Shifting back to the senior circuit should help his cause, and one would figure he could not perform any worse than he did last season, anyway. I’m calling Edgar a +2-run hitter and +1-run fielder for next season. After adjustments are thrown in for playing time and position, this amounts to +2.8 wins.

Pablo Sandoval will man the hot corner next season. A top-tiered prospect if there ever was one, Sandoval has all the tools to become a household name next season. Weighting his projections gives us a +7-run hitter and +1-run fielder, pitting Pablo at +2.5 wins. All told, this gives the Giants +6.8 wins in the infield. Solid production out of Burriss could bump that up to +7 wins very easily. And, if not from Burriss, a more optimistic projection for Sandoval could do the very same trick.

In the outfield, the Giants will bring back Fred Lewis, Aaron Rowand, and Randy Winn. Winn, one of the most underrated players in the game, has a +2.9 win projection next season, which actually leads all offensive players on the team.

After moving to the bay, Rowand struggled both offensively and defensively in 2008, in no way earning his $12 mil average annual value. Prior to last season, Rowand had posted +14, +3, and +8 marks in UZR, and +0, -6, +25 offensive runs respectively. In 2008, he produced like a league average hitter while costing the team -12 runs relative to an average centerfielder. Assuming both of these marks regress a bit, Rowand’s worth will be somewhere in the +2.3 win range.

Last, but not least, Fred Lewis combines some good pop with slick fielding. His 2009 projections call for +4 runs offensively and +5 with the glove. Playing a corner outfield position hurts his value, but overall, Lewis looks to be a +2 win player. These three combine to be worth +7.2 wins. Summing the infield and outfield results in +14 wins. Add Bengie Molina’s +2.3 win projection and we have +16.3 wins for the Giants offense.

The 2009 Giants will be getting approximately 18 wins out of their entire pitching staff and 16.3 wins out of their lineup. If we round that up to +17 for bench contribution or as “insurance” if certain players vastly outperform their projections, we are looking at an 85-win team.

Some of these projections may be a bit too optimistic for their owners, but the Giants appear to be talented enough to win anywhere from 78-85 games next season. Even a 78-win team could jump up to 85 wins a decent portion of the time, meaning that the Giants are in no way locks to win the NL West, but are definitely capable of contending next season.

If Sandoval really pulls his weight, Renteria shows that last season was a fluke, the bullpen holds fort, and the rotation meets their projections, there is no reason this team could not win the division. In the playoffs, we then are looking at a Lincecum-Cain-Unit rotation that could definitely scare some teams. A few key aspects of player performance will need to come to fruition for the team to surpass 80-wins, but it is not out of the realm of feasibility.

Walt Jocketty and the Cincinnati Reds signed Willy Taveras to a two-year deal this weekend. The financial terms of the deal have not yet been disclosed, but the team plans on leading Taveras off and putting his glove in centerfield. Taveras will be replacing Corey Patterson, who, in 392 PA last season was worth -25.5 runs with the bat while supplying league average defense in center. Patterson made $3 mil in salary in spite of his -$5 mil fair market value. Essentially, by playing Patterson for 135 games, the Reds would have had to spend $5 mil more just to get back to zero wins above replacement from his roster spot.

Taveras had a disappointing 2008 season, posting a .301 wOBA while playing -7 run defense in centerfield. He, too, “cost” his team money, though not nearly as much as Patterson. Willy earned $2 mil in actual salary despite being worth -0.8 mil. He did, however, manage to steal 68 bases.

In 2007, Taveras hit .320/.367/.382 for the Rockies with a wOBA of .344. He only played 97 games but still managed to match his 2006 stolen base total of 33 swipes. His offense has never been superb, but Taveras could always stake claim as a menace on the basepaths. And, prior to 2007, his UZR ratings pegged him as a very solid fielder.

Taveras’ defense has taken a turn for the worse recently. After posting +7 and +13 UZR ratings in 2005 and 2006, Taveras was worth -10 runs in 2007 and -7 runs last season. His lack of offensive prowess may not have mattered as much while he stole a ton of bases and manned centerfield ably. In 2008, only the baserunning facet of these skills seemed evident.

For the 2009 season, Taveras projects to be at -12 offensive runs and between -2 and +2 runs with the glove. For the sake of this analysis, let’s call him a -12 run hitter and 0 run fielder, deeming him average at the tough position. Playing around 140 games with 540 PA, Patterson would receive an additional +20 runs for value above replacement level as well as adjusting for his position.

Added to the offense and defense, this makes Taveras +8 runs, or roughly +0.8 wins, next season. This would mark an improvement over the -0.2 wins in 2008 and the +0.6 wins the year before.

At the 2009 fair market value of $5 mil/win, this makes Taveras a $4 mil player. He signed for a two-year deal, which would be valued at anywhere between $7-8 mil based on these projections. We will know more about the contract’s terms this week, in order to compare his actual received salary to the fair market value.

If Willy can find and harness his offensive numbers from 2007 while reverting to the defensive performances seen prior to the same year, these numbers vastly shift. With a .332 wOBA and +5 run defense, and the same number of plate appearances, Willy becomes a +2.4 win player. His fair market value in this case is closer to $12 mil.

By signing Taveras, Jocketty and the Reds are likely paying him somewhere in the vicinity of the +0.8 wins while holding out plenty of hope that his actual value inches closer to the +2.4 win mark. A few aspects of his performance will need to revert to prior instances of success for this to take place, but it still seems more sound than throwing Patterson out there for another season. Well, more sound assuming that they are not paying Taveras an exorbitant fee.

As long as the deal stays much lower than the $12 mil fair market value based on his “extremely optimistic” projection, it isn’t an awful signing.

The deal does, however, depend a lot on the hope that the Taveras from 2008 is not truly Willy. Two-year deals based on a hope are awfully risky, so this will be considered a win for the Reds if and only if his production improves. It might not be considered a loss if the average annual value is even lower than the $4 mil fair market value based on his actual projection if the production fails to improve. Still, for an organization with some nice young pieces in place, a two-year deal based on a hope seems like an odd move.

Earlier this week, the wins above replacement and fair market value calculations were added to the player pages. The additions enable us not just to view the productivity levels of certain players, but also how much money they could have commanded on the open market. The numbers are now available on the leaderboards, too, offering up the capability to find players worth the most/least in a given season or period of time.

One of the most interesting aspects of this data involves comparing what a player earned to what he actually made. For instance, in my Jayson Werth post, the data indicated that, from 2007-09, Werth would make something like $6.55 mil while actually providing $54 mil in wins above replacement. The next logical step would be to show the actual salary next to the deserved salary. This step recently came to fruition, meaning that we can now compare, on a player’s page, what he actually made to what his production merited.

With that in mind, I thought it might be fun to take a look at a few players and see how they are valued compared to what they deserve. As an example, we will once again turn to Werth. From 2005-2008, he produced +9.1 WAR. He actually earned $2.9 mil in this span despite being worth $38.5 mil. Sure, he has been under team control, but the numbers here are fascinating. Essentially, Werth has been paid 13.28 times less than his production would indicate over this four-year span.

How about teammate Chase Utley, who has been the second most productive hitter over the last three years? Chase has been worth +30 WAR from 2005-08, a total worth the lump sum of $118.2 mil. Due to being under team control and having some arbitration years bought out in his 7-yr deal, Utley has actually made just $13.4 mil over the last four seasons. Utley has made 8.82 times less than he deserves.

Perhaps some form of this could be parlayed into an analysis of General Manager’s, as getting $118.2 mil worth of production for just $13.4 mil is no small feat.

How about Alex Rodriguez? Would you believe that A-Rod has actually been underpaid relative to his production over the last four years? Sounds ludicrous given his contract, but it is true. A-Rod has been worth +28.5 WAR in this span, which translates to $110.6 mil. His actual salaries add up to $98.4 mil, a full $12 mil below his fair market value.

And, as good as Manny Ramirez may have looked recently, he has actually been overpaid. ManRam has amassed +14.8 WAR since 2005, worth $59.5 mil. He actually made $76.2 mil, just about $17 mil more than his production merited.

These are just a few examples, and it would be extremely interesting to see how an entire roster stacks up in this regard, but all of the data we have used in our dollar valuations is now available on this site. And, even better, we can compare the fair market values with actual money earned to really see who has or has not earned their salaries.

For those unaware, Fangraphs unveiled a new section on the player pages today. The section takes all of the dollar valuation components we have manually calculated, harnesses the stats, and outputs wins above replacement level as well as the player’s fair market value salary based on his production.

The Philadelphia Phillies won the World Series in 2008, their first since 1980. Much of the attention garnered by the team went in the direction of superstars Chase Utley and Cole Hamels, former MVP winners Ryan Howard and Jimmy Rollins, and the 41-41 closer Brad Lidge. While all five of these players deserved some form of recognition for the success of the team, a few other players contributed a good amount. These players made their contributions under the radar, though, and prior to the post-season were not even household names. Guys like Jayson Werth and Shane Victorino fit this bill.

Werth was a former first-round draft pick of the Orioles in 1997, but did not truly find a home until 2007. After health problems while playing for the Blue Jays and Dodgers limited his availability and production, the LA bunch cut ties with Werth following the 2006 campaign, one that he completely missed due to injuries. Pat Gillick, who drafted Werth while helming the Orioles, quickly brought him to the Phillies.

Still under control, Werth signed a 1-yr deal worth $850,000. With the going rate of $4.1 mil/win in 2007, Gillick’s deal valued Werth as a +2 run, +0.2 win player. In 304 plate appearances that year, Werth put together an impressive .298/.404/.459 line, good for a .385 wOBA. His production benefited from a regression-bound .391 BABIP, but Werth’s offense resulted in +11.7 runs above average.

Defensively, he proved stellar as well, with a UZR rating of +11.5 runs. Though he failed to qualify for the overall leaderboards, this defensive rating ranked fifth in the senior circuit amongst anyone with 550+ innings played in the entire outfield. All told, after adjustments are taken into account, Werth’s worth was +2.8 wins. If he had signed a contract that valued his production appropriately, the terms would be 1-yr/$11.6 mil.

In 2008, the BABIP plummeted to .327, resulting in a still productive but different slash line of .273/.363/.498. Werth lost some ability to reach base, but made up for it with an increase in power. Because of the increased output elsewhere, his wOBA remained virtually the same, at .382. The biggest difference, however, came in the form of playing time. Werth partook in 134 games last season, amassing 482 PA in the process.

His offensive production almost doubled to +21.6 runs above average. Werth also produced another fantastic season with the glove, putting together a UZR rating of +15.8 runs in the outfield. Among outfielders with at least 950 innings played, this ranks fifth in the entire sport, and second in the senior circuit to just Randy Winn.

In 2008, Jayson Werth became a +4.9 win player. 4.9 wins! Mark Teixeira’s projection for next season calls for something like +5.1 wins. Werth had re-signed for a 1-yr/$1.7 mil contract that doubled his previous season’s salary, but ended up being worth much more money than that. If he signed for his fair market value, the deal would have been closer to $22 mil.

Moving forward, his 2009 projections call for a .375 wOBA, +20 offensive runs, +12 defensive runs, and after adjustments, +43 value runs. This converts to approximately +4.15 wins, and $20.8 mil.

Werth is one of many arbitration-eligible members of the Phillies, and will likely see his salary bumped to around $4 mil for the 2009 season. Assuming this comes to fruition, he will have earned $6.55 mil from the Phillies from 2007-09, while producing +11.85 wins above replacement level. If his deserved salaries are added, we get a figure of $54.4 mil.

It is easy to lampoon GMs for dishing out ridiculous deals to players like Adam Eaton, but they deserve equal praise for acquiring players as productive as Werth. Players who, despite being under control, are able to be had for about nine times less than their fair market value.

It’s time to play everyone’s favorite statistical game, Hidden Identities! Below are the projected stat-lines in 2009 for two different pitchers, averaged together from a few different projection systems. As you may have gathered from previous examples of this game, the two pitchers are not as close in reputation as they are in projected performance.

Pitcher A: 170 IP, 4.58 FIP, +1.7 WAR
Pitcher B: 150 IP, 4.65 FIP, +1.4 WAR

Both of these pitchers seem pretty darn close in terms of their true talent levels. Pitcher A may be a bit more durable and effective, and overall a better pitcher, but the performance discrepancies are not nearly vast enough to deem A a #3-type starter and B lucky to be considered a #5 on a decent team. Before divulging their true identities, the point here is to show that there are usually alternatives to be had when filling out the back of your rotation, players whose performances won’t light the world on fire but will have some value over the replacement level while costing next to nothing.

Player A is Oliver Perez, the Boras client currently being compared to Sandy Koufax. Player B is Odalis Perez, member of the 2008 Washington Nationals who was all but forgotten a few years back. Oliver is seeking a very lucrative deal, likely similar in value and years to the contract recently signed by Ryan Dempster. Odalis is seeking… well… a job next season. In fair market value terms, this is a difference of $8.5 mil for Oliver and $7 mil for Odalis, not that substantial.

Odalis isn’t the only such player, either. Granted, it is very difficult to find someone worth over one win that can be had on the cheap, but a few other pitchers are currently available for small stipends that have value above replacement level. The three pitchers I have in mind are Josh Fogg, Kip Wells, and Jon Lieber. At this stage in their careers, none are bound to make the all star team or anything of that variety, but package projections calling for positive win production at under $4 mil.

Fogg and Wells are coming off of very poor ERA-seasons, which deflates their overall value even though their controllable skills are a half-win or more above replacement. Lieber is old and coming off of a season in which he made under 30 relief appearances.

Fogg’s projections call for around 120 innings at a 5.07 FIP. This puts him at +5 runs, and worth $2.5 mil on the open market. Coming off of a poor 2008 season in which he made just $1 mil, he could likely be had for a similar fee under his fair market value.

Wells split time between the Rockies and Royals, primarily pitching out of the bullpen. His projection calls for a 4.75 FIP in 80 innings of work, which would bump up to around 5.00, as a starter. This would make Wells a +5 run, +0.5 win pitcher. Last season, he made $3.1 mil, and based on his poor ERA as well as the decreased salaries being given to relievers this offseason, probably will not earn more than his $2.5 mil fair market value.

Lieber is older than Fogg and Wells, but has a projection calling for similar production. If a team has a solid prospect waiting in the wings, the production of these three could be replicated for the league minimum of $400k. However, the aforementioned three are available for what should be small fees.

At prices higher than their fair market values, stay away, but if you can sign Kip Wells or Lieber or Fogg to a 1-yr/$1-2 mil deal, it is something to seriously consider. These pitchers will not bump a team up from 86 wins to 89 or anything along those lines, but a deal like this would carry with it so little commitment or monetary risk.