Well, it’s official: my Phillies phever has officially worn off, and now it’s back to business as usual, worrying about what they will do in the off-season. Newly appointed GM Ruben Amaro wasted no time signing lefty reliever Scott Eyre, and it is believed that the Phillies will also re-sign Jamie Moyer, even if the deal lasts two years. Otherwise, just about everyone not currently locked down to a long-term deal is eligible for arbitration. Most, if not all, of these players—Greg Dobbs, Joe Blanton, Ryan Howard, Cole Hamels, Chad Durbin, Shane Victorino, Ryan Madson, and Jayson Werth—are going to win their case, meaning raises will be due across the board.

This will make it harder for Amaro to go out and sign an impact player, though most of the positions are already set in stone, with the bulk of their core returning. The only true question mark at this point involves the outfield. Victorino and Werth will be back, and together form a tandem of all-around, very productive players, that many people still don’t know about. Pat Burrell’s spot is another story.

Burrell has mentioned numerous times that he would love to return, but he is currently seeking a three-year deal. Speculation surfaced that Amaro would offer two years, so if he ups the deal to a third year, it is very likely that Burrell returns. With free agent starting tomorrow, though, my personal feeling is that Pat the Bat will be offered much more money elsewhere, an opportunity cost too great for him to offer a hometown discount and return.

The trio of Burrell, Victorino, and Werth formed one of the top, if not the top, offensive outfields in 2008, combining for a WPA/LI of just under seven wins above average. Defensively, Victorino was about two wins above average with a positional adjustment; Werth was about a half of a win above average; and Burrell was just under two and a half wins below average. All told, factoring in offense and defense, the Phillies outfield was close to seven wins above average this past season.

There were rumors that the Phillies would send a package headlined by Victorino to the Rockies for Matt Holliday, but Ken Mandel of MLB.com recently reported that the two clubs were never realistically close to making a deal. If they opt to resign Burrell, and are able to make a deal in the same range as other suitors, here are the projections for 2009:

Pat Burrell:     .253/.377/.490, 32 HR, 29 2B
Jayson Werth:    .279/.369/.484, 25 HR, 25 2B, 21 SB
Shane Victorino: .286/.345/.428, 13 HR, 24 2B, 27 SB

If Burrell signs elsewhere, Amaro has mentioned that he would likely platoon the left-handed combo of Geoff Jenkins, Matt Stairs, and Greg Dobbs with a right-handed bat signed from the free agent market. The righty bats that have been linked to the Phillies are Kevin Mench, Rocco Baldelli, Jerry Hairston, and most recently, albeit from a trade and not free agency, Jermaine Dye. Below are the projections for these players:

Geoff Jenkins:  .257/.330/.441, 15 HR, 22 2B
Kevin Mench:    .264/.322/.430,  7 HR, 16 2B
Rocco Baldelli: .279/.330/.465, 12 HR, 18 2B
Jerry Hairston: .264/.333/.391,  4 HR, 14 2B
Jermaine Dye:   .270/.334/.491, 31 HR, 33 2B
Matt Stairs:    .242/.341/.409, 12 HR, 17 2B 
Greg Dobbs:     .284/.329/.432,  8 HR, 16 2B

Other than Dye, who is a very significant power threat, all of these players have very similar projections for next season. Defensively, believe it or not, but Jenkins was +6 in 2006, and +18 as the second best left-fielder in 2007, before being right around average in his limited rightfield role in 2008. He might not be worth two wins above average defensively, but he is certainly more defensively sound than Burrell. Mench was +5 in rightfield in 2007, and +2 in limited duty this season. Baldelli doesn’t have a large enough sample size to base defensive evaluations on, but he should be no worse than average, which is about the same for Hairston.

Dye has posted the following numbers: -14, -41, -17. He has ranged from around 1.5-2 wins below average defensively, which comes pretty close to cancelling out the offensive production. At this stage in his career, Stairs is nothing more than an offensive threat, and while a larger role for Dobbs is likely merited, his arm is suspect and he is not a natural outfielder.

Dye is owed 11.5 million in 2009, and has a club option for 2010 worth 12 million. Oddly enough, that 23.5 million is about the same amount Amaro has hinted he would be offering to Burrell. This is all assuming Dye is even being dangled, which he very well may not be. If they lose Burrell to free agency, and opt to go with a Jenkins/Mench, Jenkins/Baldelli, or Jenkins/Hairston platoon, they are going to lose some offensive production, but improve defensively. With both Utley and Howard entrenched in the lineup, a big righty power bat sure would be nice, but Jenkins is due to perform better than he did in 2008, and a nice righty platoon partner wouldn’t be as dramatic a dropoff in total production (both offensively and defensively) as many would think.

< rant >

Earlier this week, I poked some good-natured fun at the BBWAA for their Rookie of the Year award voting. See, Edinson Volquez of the Reds finished fourth in the balloting, yet he is not a rookie. Just because nobody heard of him prior to this year does not automatically deem him eligible as a rookie. I mentioned how numerous bloggers, myself included, had been running a year-long ballot for the three major end of season awards, and we knew from the get-go that Volquez did not qualify. I thought a transgression like this could forgotten, but after seeing the voting totals for the AL Cy Young Award today, I legitimately felt like finding the addresses of some voters and berating them until they gave solid enough reasoning for their selections.

Cliff Lee deserved to win, so let’s clear that up right now. My anger has nothing to do with his victory. He would have had my vote if I were so privileged. He may not repeat this performance next season, but a 2.54 ERA, 2.83 FIP, and K/BB above 5.0, combined with a 5.96 WPA and league best 4.76 WPA/LI is definitely worthy of an award honoring the best pitcher of the season. Halladay may faced stiffer competition, and twirled nine complete games, but honestly, Lee deserved this.

My anger stems from the balloting after that, even though a correction ultimately would not have changed the result. Roy Halladay finished in second place, which is appropriate. In any other season, Doc likely would have run away with the award, with his 2.78 ERA, 3.03 FIP, 246 innings logged, K/BB above 5.0, and 4.27 WPA/LI. He even received four first-place votes, meaning four writers and voters felt he legitimately had a better season than Lee. Lee, of course, finished in second place on each of those ballots.

Given how these two pitchers were, far and away, the cream of the crop in the junior circuit, I expected to see Halladay register anywhere from 20-24 of the remaining second place votes. How many did he register? 15. A little math shows then that, of the 24 remaining ballots that did not put Halladay as the top candidate, nine voters felt someone else was legitimately better and more deserving.

Now, given that Francisco Rodriguez broke the saves record this season, I then expected that those remaining nine second-place votes belonged to K-Rod. A quick glance at the total tallies showed that K-Rod only received seven of those nine second-place votes. So where did the other two go? Thanks for asking, they went to Daisuke Matsuzaka of the Red Sox. Yes, the same Daisuke that posted a 2.90 ERA, lower than Halladay, a 4.03 FIP, a full run lower than Halladay, a K/BB ratio under 1.70, and who didn’t even record 170 innings pitched.

Two voters felt that Daisuke had a better season than Halladay. Even using the W-L record, Daisuke did go 18-3, but Halladay won 20 games and did it on a team with an offense considerably worse than the Red Sox. Clearly, voters have to know this, right? Further, Daisuke wasn’t even the best pitcher on his own team, as Jon Lester ran away with those honors. And Lester received NO votes at all! In essence, we have a situation where two second-place votes were given to a pitcher who not only did not deserve them over the rightful owner, but had no business receiving more votes than another pitcher better than him on his own team.

With my anger brewing, my eyes shifted to the third-place column, where I expected to see that Roy Halladay had racked up 9 votes. After all, there are 28 ballots, and he received 4 first-place and 15 second-place votes. I haven’t taken arithmetic since the second grade, but that leaves nine unanswered ballots for Halladay. Guess how many third place votes he had. Six. Nine minus six equals three. That means… wait for it… three voters felt that Roy Halladay had no place on their ballot?

ARE YOU KIDDING ME? I mean, seriously, are you kidding me!? I don’t even care if Mariano Rivera had a much better season than K-Rod, or that Lester had a better year than Daisuke, or that Ervin Santana had a better year than BOTH Lester and Daisuke. No, what I care about is that three voters filled in a name under first place, second place, and third place, and none of those names were Roy Halladay. Three writers filled out AL Cy Young Award ballots with some combination of Lee-Rodriguez-Santana or Lee-Rodriguez-Rivera, or Lee-Rodriguez-Daisuke, or Lee-Daisuke-Mussina, or any of the other possibe combinations sans Halladay.

To me, this is absolutely atrocious, and if I were in charge, it would be grounds for revoking voting privileges. Even the caveman baseball stats peg Halladay as better than pretty much anyone other than Lee. I write two articles per day here at Fangraphs, 1-2 per week at Statistically Speaking, 4-8 a month at Baseball Prospectus, and chime in every now and then at The Hardball Times, WHILE managing the workload of a graduate business student, responsibilities as a screenwriter, a tax preparer, and a few other web-based jobs, and I was still able to find 10-15 minutes to really analyze the numbers of all of these candidates. None of this is designed to toot my own horn, but rather to show that I am equally as busy, if not moreso, than those with voting privileges.

And yet, someone who “doesn’t live in their mother’s basement,” who is “around the players” and “at the ballpark,” with nothing to do other than meet their deadline with an article full of drivel, cannot do the same? I honestly don’t know what else to say on this one. If Albert Pujols doesn’t win the NL MVP award, well…

< /rant >

Let’s play everyone’s favorite game – Guess That Stat-Line! The two pitching lines below are crude Marcel projections for 2009. See if you can notice any truly significant differences:

Player A: 4.39 ERA, 4.47 FIP, 3.32 BB/9, 6.35 K/9, Birthday on Jan. 12
Player B: 4.55 ERA, 4.36 FIP, 3.13 BB/9, 6.14 K/9, Birthday on Jan. 8

On one hand, Player A has an ERA 0.16 runs better per nine innings, while the other has an almost equal advantage in the FIP department. On the other hand, the ERA and FIP figures above are not all that impressive to begin with. Player A will strike out slightly more hitters, but walk more as well. Neither breaks the 2.0 K/BB barrier. So why bring these two somewhat average or below average projections to light?

Well, Player A was just traded by the Florida Marlins, and Player B is now rumored to be on their off-season shopping list. Yes, Player A = Scott Olsen, and Player B = Carl Pavano. Pavano last pitched for the Marlins in 2004, when he put together a very solid season: 31 GS, 222.1 innings with a 3.00 ERA, 3.54 FIP, and 1.98 BB/9. His season was so good that Brian Cashman decided Pavano could serve as a key cog in the Yankees rotation for the next four seasons. In actuality, Carl made just 26 starts from 2005-08, surrendering 182 hits in 145.2 innings, complete with a 5.00 ERA and miniscule 4.63 K/9.

The 4.63 K/9 is generous, as well, given that the same metric fell to 3.18 in 2007 and 3.93 in 2008. In 7 starts this past season, Pavano didn’t even average 5.0 IP/gm with his 34.1 innings logged, and he walked more hitters than usual, evidenced by his 2.62 BB/9. Now, seven starts is too small of a sample size to use as a concrete predictor of future performance, but it is clear even from his 2005 season that Pavano has lost a whole lot of his ability to strike batters out. On top of that, he has gone from 91-92 mph to 88 mph.

Put everything together, and the Marlins are considering signing a 33-year old pitcher who cannot strike batters out, seems to be on the verge of walking more, who has also lost significant velocity on his fastball. Who did they just trade away? A 25-yr old pitcher who has lost the ability to strike batters out, is walking plenty, and who has lost velocity on his fastball. In case you’re missing my point here, they are considering bringing in the equivalent of what they just traded away, plus eight more years in age, who will likely cost more money.

Over the last two weeks, I have used WPA, win probability added, to discuss the top ten offensive plays of the 2008 baseball season. The merits of this list could be debated to death, I am sure, but what cannot be denied is that these ten plays brought with them the biggest shifts in win expectancy. Hitting a three-run home run in the sixth inning, when down by a run may seem like a monumental play while watching the game in question, but a two-run walkoff home run with two outs in the bottom of the ninth inning is likely going to vault a team from a 9-11% win expectancy to the 100% victory.

With that in mind, here is the top ten in its entirety:

10) Jason Michaels hit a two-run home run in the bottom of the tenth inning against the Cardinals on July 12. The Pirates trailed 10-6 entering the bottom of the ninth inning, and won 12-11 in ten innings. His play was worth a shift of 78.6%.

9) Nick Swisher, who didn’t make his first plate appearance until the 11th inning, hit a walkoff two-run homer in the bottom of the fourteenth against the Tigers on August 5. The home run was worth a 78.8% shift in expectancy.

8) Nate McLouth delivered a three-run home run in the top of the ninth, on April 14, off of Takashi Saito and the Dodgers. Unlike the other plays on this list, McLouth’s 79.6% shift in win expectancy was not a walk-off hit.

7) Nicknamed “the first half highlight” by, well, me, Josh Hamilton hit a walk-off dinger off of Francisco Rodriguez prior to the all star break. The home run, which occurred on July 9, saw a shift of 82.9% in win expectancy.

6) This was probably the oddest finish to any game this season. The Giants led the DBacks on September 10, 3-2, as the top of the ninth began. Chris Young hit a two-run triple to give the Snakes the 4-3 lead, before Eugenio Velez hit a two-run triple of his own to win the game for the Giants in the bottom half. Velez’s triple brought with it an expectancy shift of 83%.

5) On June 5, Jason Giambi and his moustache provided an 89.6% shift in win expectancy when he blasted a two-run walkoff home run off of BJ Ryan and the Blue Jays.

4) Two days later, on June 7, Cody Ross of the Marlins provided the fourth biggest play of the season, worth 89.8%, when he lined a two-run homer with a 1-1 count off of Francisco Cordero.

3) On May 2, Pat Burrell hit a two-run walkoff home run off of Giants closer Brian Wilson, an expectancy shift of 89.95%.

2) June 29, Ronnie Belliard delivered a two-run walkoff home run off of George Sherrill in an interleague battle for Maryland supremacy. The dinger brought with it an expectancy shift of 90.05%.

1) Finally, on July 12, David DeJesus hit, you guessed it, a walkoff two-run homer, off of Brandon Morrow. His home run, 90.36% worth of WPA, was the biggest play of the 2008 season.

And there you have it, the top ten offensive plays of the season. Brian Wilson appeared twice on this list: he gave up Young’s two-run triple in the top of the ninth in #6, before being bailed out by Velez, and gave up the walkoff to Burrell in #3. #1 and #10 both occurred on the same day, July 12. Three days prior, Hamilton hit his much shown home run off of K-Rod, meaning three of the top plays of the entire season occurred within four days of each other.

Well, what do you know? We have finally made it to the top offensive play of this entire 2008 baseball season, and it happens to belong to a member of the Kansas City Royals. David DeJesus, to be exact. Somehow, the Washington Nationals, Baltimore Orioles, Kansas City Royals, and Seattle Mariners—four of the worst teams in baseball this past season—managed to find themselves involved in the top two offensive plays of the year. Ain’t baseball great? DeJesus’s big play, which will be prefaced and summarized below, provided a win expectancy swing of 90.36%, about one-third to one-half of a percentage point ahead of Ronnie Belliard‘s second-best play, and Pat Burrell’s third-place home run.

The game took place on July 12, in a matchup between Gil Meche and Jarrod Washburn. It also saw Horacio Ramirez, then a member of the Royals, take on his former teammates in Seattle. Would Horacio seek revenge? Oh, that’s right, he isn’t good enough to merit a storyline. Moving on. Take a look at the big spike at the end, as it is the biggest such spike this past season:

DeJesus has had an interesting career to date. His numbers in 2005, 2006, and 2008, are eerily similar, not just in raw totals but rates as well. 2007 appears to be an outlier, as his .291 BABIP was much lower than the .330+ marks he showed himself capable of in 2005, 2006, and 2008. Not many fans know about his production and potential, but he managed to put the Kansas City Royals in first place in at least one category this year: the top offensive plays.

After giving up a leadoff single to Ichiro Suzuki, Meche retired the next three hitters in the top of the first. His counterpart Washburn did not fare as well, as the Royals tacked on two quick runs on the heels of singles by Mark Grudzielanek and Alex Gordon. After one inning, the Royals led by a score of 2-0, that would last for no more than an inning. In the bottom of the second, Mark Teahen hit into a fielder’s choice, scoring Esteban German, and extending the lead to three runs.

After five innings, Meche was absolutely cruising, having walked nobody, allowed no runs to score, and given up just four hits, two of which belonged to Tug Hulett. In the sixth, however, he fell apart. Ichiro once again led off with a single, and two batters later, scored on a home run by Raul Ibanez. Jose Vidro then followed with a single. Adrian Beltre added a single of his own. With two on, and one out, Jeremy Reed hit a double, scoring both Vidro and Beltre, and giving the Mariners the 4-3 lead. The Royals’ win expectancy began the inning at 86.9%, and by the time it ended, had plummeted to 38.9%, a dropoff of 48 percentage points.

When the bottom of the seventh came to its close, their win expectancy had further been reduced to 24.9%. A 1-2-3 inning later from Horacio Ramirez, it had been nominally increased to 30%, but their offense appeared stagnant, and it was only a matter of time before the hard-throwing Brandon Morrow would enter the game. Sean Green and Arthur Rhodes kept the Royals off the scoreboards in the eighth, meaning the ninth inning would begin with the Royals having just a 16% probability of winning the game.

Horacio added another 1-2-3 inning, giving the Royals a 19.7% probability of winning as Morrow entered. John Buck struck out looking, and Ross Gload grounded out to second. Their win expectancy was now a measly 4.6%. Billy Butler then walked, to give the Royals a glimmer of hope. He was lifted in favor of speedster Joey Gathright, who would look to get himself into scoring position for a potential tie game. He didn’t even need to, as only a few pitches later, with just a 9.6% probability of winning, David DeJesus launched a two-run homer into orbit, blowing the save for Morrow, and winning the game for the Royals. His home run, worth a swing in expectancy of 90.36%, was the top offensive play of the 2008 baseball season.

As we are all aware, Evan Longoria and Geovany Soto took home Rookie of the Year hardware for the 2008 season. They were both incredibly deserving, as Longoria produced an .874 OPS and 1.71 WPA/LI in just 122 games, while adding plus defense at third base. Soto posted an OPS of .868 and a 1.36 WPA/LI as the Cubs backstop. There were several other players who may have won the award in another season, such as Mike Aviles, Hiroki Kuroda, and Joey Votto, but one player that does not fit this bill is Edinson Volquez.

Now, before you jump on my back for saying Volquez deserved no part of the Rookie of the Year award, let me explain myself! It has nothing to do with his statistics: a 3.21 ERA, 9.46 K/9, and 1.67 WPA/LI definitely deserves plenty of recognition. It’s just that, well, Edinson Volquez… is… not… a… rookie.

Yep, that’s correct, he is not a rookie, and yet he managed to receive three second-place votes in this year’s balloting, finishing fourth on the National League ballot. The overall qualifying rules for determining a rookie are not that tough, either, as in no prior season or seasons, can a player accrue more than 130 at-bats or 50 innings pitched. In 2005, Volquez logged 12.2 innings. He added another 33.1 in 2006, and an additional 34 in 2007, giving him exactly 80 innings pitched entering this season. Had he produced this year’s numbers last season he would have qualified, but he was 30 innings over the qualifying total entering 2008, and yet this error still managed to happen.

Now, I’m not going to say newspaper writers or those voting are idiots, or anything like that, or add in any hot-shot about their evaluation techniques, but I will say this: I took part in three different season-long polls during which multiple bloggers voted on the Rookie of the Year, Cy Young Award, and MVP each and every week, and we knew from the get-go that Volquez was not a rookie. If we—bloggers in our mothers basement—knew this guy was not a rookie, how is it that Edinson managed to finish in fourth place on the official ballot?

I guess from now on, Major League Baseball needs to clarify with the award-voters that just because you have not heard of someone, it does not automatically make them a rookie. Now I’m waiting for a story to surface that Carlos Quentin and his 395 pre-2008 at-bats finished in third place in the junior circuit. This may be an easy mistake, and ultimately it did not affect the overall finish in the National League, but many fans take these awards very seriously, and if those voting are not even going to follow the rules or do a little bit of research, their voting privileges should be revoked.

Ronnie Belliard is not an all-star, a future MVP, or someone that will find himself enshrined in Cooperstown someday. He is not even that good of a player to begin with, coupling about average offense with below average defense. For his 11-year career, Ronnie has a WPA/LI of -1.23, making him a little over one win worse than an average player, offensively. He has always shown himself capable of some power, however, and this season, despite playing in just 96 games, he produced the best numbers of his career.

Overall, in those 96 games and 337 plate appearances, Belliard hit .284/.372/.473, an .845 OPS, and a 1.40 WPA/LI, the latter two of which are career bests. He also hit 22 doubles and managed to match last year’s home run total of 11 in a little more than half of the at-bats. One of those home runs came on June 29, in a game where Orioles visited the Nationals. This home run just so happens to be the runner-up to the biggest offensive play of the 2008 season.

While our third biggest play involved a pitching matchup of two hurlers who will be lucky to even have a job in 2009 (Kyle Kendrick and Patrick Misch), this game saw a beautiful pitching duel between Jeremy Guthrie and Jason Bergmann, both of which can be slotted in for 30+ starts next season. After Bergmann stranded a runner in the top of the first, Aaron Boone knocked in a run off of Guthrie on a fielder’s choice in the bottom half of the frame. The Nationals led 1-0 and literally nothing would happen until the top of the seventh inning.

With Bergmann absolutely cruising along, Luke Scott knotted the game up with a solo home run. He would get out of the inning without further damage. Guthrie pitched a scoreless bottom half of the seventh, before both starters departed. They had each pitched extremely well, and left with idential WPAs of .266. The bullpens were equally effective, however, as the eighth, ninth, tenth, and eleventh innings came and went with nary a run crossing the plate.

Luis Ayala began the top of the twelfth by surrendering back to back singles to Nick Markakis and Aubrey Huff. With runners on first and second, he retired Kevin Millar. Charlie Manning then entered the game and struck out Luke Scott, before himself being lifted in favor of Joel Hanrahan. In quite the crucial plate appearance—a leverage index of 4.47—Jones singled to rightfield, scoring Markakis and giving the Orioles a 2-1 lead.

George Sherrill came in, hoping to close the door, which, by my tone and the earlier text quite apparently did not happen. At the beginning of the frame, though, the Nationals had a 20.3% probability of winning. Pete Orr struck out to kick things off, reducing this probability to 11.4%. Their win probability was further reduced when Paul LoDuca followed with a groundout to third base. As Dmitri Young stepped up to bat, the Nationals had justs a 4.8% shot at winning this game.

Young showed patience and worked a walk, increasing the Nationals’ win expectancy to a whopping 9.95%. With a 2-2 count, Ronnie Belliard then harnessed his power, and belted a line drive home run over the wall to end the game. This game was rather meaningless in the grand scheme of the 2008 baseball season, but Belliard’s walkoff, which produced an expectancy swing of 90.05%, the second biggest offensive play of the year, just goes to show that even the worst of teams can produce some exciting action.

With Game Five of the 2008 World Series tied at three runs apiece, Pat Burrell stepped up to the plate against JP Howell, and promptly smashed a double off of the left-centerfield wall. The shot came within an inch of leaving the yard, and as he made his way back to the dugout in favor of a pinch-runner, he seemed to possess the look of somebody who has just experienced his final plate appearance with a team. Eric Bruntlett, the pinch-runner, eventually came around to score what would amount to the game- and World Series-winning run.

This was arguably the biggest moment of his career, but his biggest moment of the regular season came months earlier, in a game I actually got to attend. Though he has always been a hot or cold player, Burrell has been eerily consistent over the last several seasons. On May 2, however, he was putting the finishing touches on a Pujols-esque hot streak. Entering the early May affair with the Giants, Burrell was one of the top offensive players in baseball with a .333/.454/.677 line to go along with 8 HR and 9 2B in just 119 plate appearances. The graph for this May 2 game, which produced the third top offensive play of the season, is below:

The game began with quite the forgettable pitching matchup: Kyle Kendrick vs. Patrick Misch. Chase Utley backed Kendrick early by belting a two-run homer in the bottom of the first, a score that would hold until the top of the fourth. Trailing by two, former Phillie Aaron Rowand doubled to the delight of his hardcore fans, and came around to score on a Jose Castillo single. Wasting no time in retaliating, Pat Burrell walked and Pedro Feliz smacked a two-run homer of his own against his former team. The Phillies led 4-1 and seemed on their way to an easy victory.

Kendrick pitched a scoreless fifth and sixth before being lifted in the top of the seventh on the heels of surrendering consecutive singles to Castillo and Emmanuel Burriss. Ryan Madson came in, and things sort of broke down. Keep in mind this was back in May, and not September or October, when the entire country essentially saw Madson dominate with an out-of-nowhere 96 mph fastball. With two on, and nobody out, Eugenio Velez singled to load the bases.

Madson then got a key out by fanning Fred Lewis, but things broke down from there. Ray Durham stepped in and roped a two-run single to right, bringing the score to 4-3. Randy Winn followed with a little single of his own, once again loading the bases. Bengie Molina then grounded out, scoring Velez, and knotting the game at four runs each. The seventh, eighth, and ninth innings would all pass before any more runs would score.

JC Romero started the top half of the tenth for the Phillies, and was rudely greeted by an Aaron Rowand home run. The rest of the inning was rocky for Romero, but he eventually got out of a jam with the Phillies trailing 5-4. As the bottom of the tenth began, the Phillies had a 20.6% probability of winning the game. That mark dropped 11.5% when Jayson Werth led off by striking out against flamethrowing closer Brian Wilson. Chase Utley promptly singled to right, raising their expectancy to 21.4%.

Ryan Howard was due up next, and mostly everyone in attendance felt he would deliver a walkoff home run. After all, not only is Wilson a righty, but he was a righty who predominantly threw fastballs, precisely the recipe for disaster with a guy like Howard. Unfortunately, things didn’t work out, and Howard’s at-bat ended with a ‘K’ on the scorecard. The Phillies now had just a 10.05% probability of winning the game. As soon as Burrell’s theme music played, though, again, the reaction from the crowd was one sensing a walkoff on the horizon. Just like Howard, Burrell is quite adept at hitting fastballs with plenty of velocity.

On a full count, with two outs, in the bottom of the tenth—pretty much the cliche dramatic situation in a baseball game–Burrell absolutely crushed a deep fliner to left field. As soon as the ball made contact with the bat, everyone, including Burrell and the Phillies, knew the game had just ended. Burrell’s two-run walkoff home run off of Brian Wilson capped a torrid first 30 games, and produced an expectancy swing of 89.95%, the third most of any play this season.

The story of the Florida Marlins in 2008 could be summed up by saying they had a ton of offensive firepower, but poor pitching outside of Ricky Nolasco and very poor fielding as well. One of the heavy hitters, definitely known more for his power than anything else, is Cody Ross, the protagonist of the fourth biggest play of the season. Take a look at the game graph below, and compare it to our fifth biggest play, which involved Jason Giambi’s walkoff:

When I first saw the graph for this June 7 game between the Reds and Marlins, it seemed odd: it looked like the big swing in win expectancy at the end of the game was not as impressive as Giambi’s. In fact, they were both very, very close, however the difference soon dawned on me. A bit before Giambi’s at-bat, the Yankees had a much lower probability of winning the game than the Marlins did with the same leading time before Ross’s plate appearance. Regardless, both were huge plays ensconced in the top five of all offensive plays this season.

Leading 2-0 in the fourth inning, Luis Gonzalez homered to extend the lead against Bronson Arroyo. An inning later, Jorge Cantu added a solo bomb of his own, giving the Fish a 4-0 lead through five innings. In the top of the sixth, that poor defense I mentioned earlier came back to haunt the Marlins. With two on and two out, back to back errors by Jorge Cantu and Wes Helms allowed the Reds to score a run. With the bases now loaded, Andy Phillips smacked a game tying three-run double to left off of Scott Olsen.

The game would remain tied until the bottom of the seventh, when our hero, Cody Ross, hit an RBI single. No sooner than the very next frame did Adam Dunn crush a solo home run to once again knot the game. The Reds attack continued against Logan Kensing, as singles by Jerry Hairston Jr and Jay Bruce extended their newfound lead to 7-5. After a 1-2-3 inning for Burke Badenhop, Francisco Cordero entered the game for the Reds, hoping to show why he received that ridiculous contract in the off-season.

At the beginning of the bottom of the ninth, the Marlins had a 9.8% probability of winning the game. Cantu led off with a double, increasing their WE to 20.8%. Wes Helms then grounded out, advancing Cantu to third base, but decreasing the Marlins’ expectancy to 12.6%. Dan Uggla walked, putting runners at the corners, and again increasing their probability to 22.1%. Luis Gonzalez followed with a sac fly, that, despite bringing the Marlins within one run, added another out and reduced their expectancy to 10.2%.

Ross then stepped up to the plate to engage battle against Cordero in a PA with a leverage index of 3.58. On a 1-1 count, Ross smashed a line drive over the outfield wall to win the game, 8-7. With just a 10.2% WE entering the plate appearance, Ross’s gigantic home run resulted in an expectancy swing of 89.8%, just slightly ahead of Giambi’s 89.6%, and good enough for the fourth biggest offensive play of the season.

Moving right along on our look at the ten best offensive plays of the season, we find ourselves ensconced in a summer affair between the Yankees and Blue Jays, when Jason Giambi and his memorable moustache loomed large. On June 5th, Chien-Ming Wang squared off against Dustin McGowan in what turned out to be a huge come from behind win at Yankee Stadium. Though the Yanks got out to an early 2-0 lead, a Melky Cabrera error, a two-run single by Matt Stairs, and a two-run double from Lyle Overbay combined to give the Jays a 7-2 lead when the top of the fifth finally came to its close. From there, the game graph below beautifully illustrates what transpired:

The Yankees slowly inched their way back, scoring two in the bottom of the fifth on a Bobby Abreu groundout and Alex Rodriguez sacrifice fly. Now trailing 7-4, they held the Blue Jays in check in the top of the sixth, before a two-run homer off the bat of Wilson Betemit brought them within one run. The game remained 7-6 in favor of the Jays until the top of the ninth inning. Entering the frame, the Yankees had just a 17.1% probability of winning the game.

Alex Rios singled. Scott Rolen singled as well. Matt Stairs then uncorked a ground rule double, scoring Rios, and extending the lead to 8-6. At this juncture, the Yankees were reduced to a 3.4% probability of winning! Farnsworth went onto escape what had become a bases loaded jam without further damage, increasing the Yankees expectancy to a mere 10% on the nose.

BJ Ryan entered the game, looking for the save, and immediately retired Derek Jeter on a groundout. After Bobby Abreu lined out to centerfield, the Yankees had a 1.6% probability of winning this game. 1.6%! Alex Rodriguez then singled, and advanced to second base on a defensive indifference. Just 5.1% now. Hideki Matsui singled A-Rod home, cutting the score to 8-7, and doubling their expectancy to 10.4%. In stepped Jason Giambi.

This should have been Jorge Posada’s spot in the order, but he had been lifted earlier for pinch-runner Shelley Duncan. Giambi was coming off the bench to deliver in a crucial spot. With Matsui on first base, Giambi did just that, by launching a walkoff two-run homer into the stands. The Yankees would win the game, having just a 10.4% likelihood of doing so as Giambi entered the batters box. While the sixth biggest play of the season resulted in an expectancy swing of 83.0%, Giambi’s home run vastly exceeded Velez’s triple, with a WPA of .896; in other words, his home run increased their chances of winning by 89.6%.

Yankee Stadium may be no more, and this may have been the first year in forever that the Yankees missed the playoffs, but they had at least one extremely memorable moment this past season, and it happened to be the fifth biggest offensive play of the season.