Author Archive

Rebuilding the Astros

The Houston Astros are far from the worst team in baseball this season, but their ability to seriously contend in the near future is largely based upon the rebuilding effort that was fully implemented the moment Jeff Luhnow took over. Luhnow inherited a team with a poor farm system — ranked #27 by Marc Hulet — that was high on right-handed pitching and nearly devoid of high-ceiling bats.

He also walked into a sub-par major league situation, with a strange mix of pricey veterans and underwhelming youngsters. There were bright spots in both the major and minor leagues, but Luhnow took the job knowing very well that the organization was more than a mere move or two away from turning things around.

Luckily, he brought with him a strong reputation for building from within. The Astros finally started the rebuilding process last season under Ed Wade by trading Michael Bourn and Hunter Pence, and entered this past offseason with long-term goals that took precedent over short-term — and short-lived — success.

The organization was interested in a solution, not a band-aid, and ownership seemed more than willing to experience losing seasons if management did everything in its power to essentially hit the reset button. With one-third of the season in the books, the Astros are getting closer to the point where decisions need to be made and actions taken with respect to several rostered players whose departures could aid and potentially expedite the rebuilding process.

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Moyer’s Career Crossroads

The Rockies designated Jamie Moyer for assignment this week, likely spelling the end of his short run in Colorado. A year removed from undergoing Tommy John surgery, Moyer showed some positive signs over his 10 starts with the Rockies, but the team was discouraged with the overall results and opted to head in a different direction.

While the designation for assignment doesn’t preclude the team from hanging onto the player, it seems unlikely that the end result here involves the 49-year old Moyer pitching for a Rockies’ minor league affiliate.

Whether he is viewed as more of a novelty than an asset — and at this point in his career it’s hard to view him as a significant contributor — Moyer will probably receive some interest throughout the league. He might not get to start many more games, but some team will take a low-risk flier on him in some capacity if he decides to keep pitching.

While getting cut by a 21-29 team currently 10.5 games out of first place might signal it’s time to hang up the cleats, Moyer may still have something left to offer whichever team brings him aboard.

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Diamondbacks Extend Miguel Montero

The Diamondbacks signed Miguel Montero to a five-year, $60 million extension over the weekend. The richest deal in Diamondbacks franchise history effectively keeps Montero in Arizona for the rest of his prime. It also ensures that the team has a very good player at an important position locked up at a fairly reasonable price.

Set to hit free agency after the season, the 28-year old Montero would have been the best full-time catcher on the market. Considering that Mike Napoli isn’t really an everyday backstop, that Yadier Molina signed a contract extension in March, and that the likes of David Ross, Yorvit Torrealba and Ronny Paulino are backups, Montero really wasn’t going to have much trouble signing a lucrative deal. The Diamondbacks were clearly interested in keeping Montero around, and both sides had engaged in negotiations since the offseason began. The contract extension was more a matter of when, than if, and no timeline was set by which a deal had to get done.

The deal will pay Montero $10 million in both 2013 and 2014, $12 million in 2015, and $14 million in both 2016 and 2017. The contract doesn’t seem to include any player or club options and lacks no-trade protection. Overall, this is a great deal for Montero, who gets long-term security at his approximate market value.

The deal makes plenty of sense for the Diamondbacks as well, but how much so depends on Montero’s ability to remain a catcher through his age-33 season and if he can sustain some semblance of last year’s production.

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Orioles Should Aggressively Pursue Oswalt

Roy Oswalt is getting closer to signing a contract, and while his reported preference is to pitch for one of the Rangers, Cardinals or Braves, the surprising first-place Orioles are quickly emerging as a dark horse candidate for his services. The Orioles may have lost a recent waiver claim to the Rangers based on their better record — which is still strange to type — but an aggressive pursuit of Oswalt, with a relatively lofty salary for three months, may pry him away from the Rangers, the current favorites in his sweepstakes.

The Orioles have been diligent in their pursuit to date, with Dan Duquette avoiding the topic or speaking in generalities when Oswalt is mentioned. Though he may not want to reveal his hand, the club has to have interest in Oswalt on some level.

Pitching is one of their biggest needs — despite relatively strong performance early on — and he is the perfect type of pitcher for the Orioles to pursue: he won’t cost a ton for half of a season, won’t require a commitment beyond this season, and is frankly better than some currently staffed rotation members.

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The Secrecy Surrounding Howard’s Progress

The Phillies knew their slugging first baseman would miss some time when he fell to the ground on the last play of their 2011 Division Series with the Cardinals. Without any setbacks, his ruptured Achilles tendon would keep him sidelined through April. While recovering from surgery, he suffered an infection near the tendon that was serious enough itself to require surgery. The setback made his May return unlikely and gave him another roadblock to clear before being allowed to rehab.

His rehab got underway two weeks ago, and that’s all anyone knows right now.

There haven’t been any updates about his progress or lack thereof. We know that Howard is physically in Clearwater, Florida, working out at the Phillies training facility, but that’s it. Nobody knows what type of work he is putting in, when he might start playing in rehab games, or any sense of when he might return to the major leagues. Apparently, that is by design, since the organization is going to great lengths to prevent reporters from watching or talking to Howard.

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Werth’s Injury Will Keep Harper Around

The 18-10 Nationals remain in first place after taking two of three from the Phillies over the weekend, but their seasonal outlook significantly worsened when Jayson Werth left Sunday night’s game with a wrist injury.

Werth slid to make a catch on Placido Polanco’s blooper in the sixth inning. While it appeared that he made the catch, the ball fell out of his glove as his wrist awkwardly bent backward. A few minutes later, Werth was replaced by Xavier Nady, and after the game it was reported that he broke his left wrist.

At a minimum, Werth will miss six weeks. He joins Ryan Zimmerman, Michael Morse and Adam LaRoche as valuable Nationals out of action. The injury also ensures that Bryce Harper won’t get sent back down to the minors once some of the injured players return. Regardless, losing Werth clearly hurts the Nationals outfield, and opens up another hole in the lineup they may not be able to fill internally.

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The Dodgers Are Leaving Runs on the Table

The Dodgers have been the talk of the baseball world this season, with the $2 billion sale of the organization and their league-best 17-8 record. However, as well as the team has played, they actually stand to improve their offense with a simple lineup tweak: Move Dee Gordon in front of the pitcher and bat A.J. Ellis near the top of the lineup.

By batting him eighth, the Dodgers are not optimally utilizing Ellis’s on-base proficiency.

Sure, some of his ability to draw walks so far is tied to his lineup spot. He’s a patient hitter regardless of where he bats — but batters in that position tend to get intentionally walked or unintentionally-intentionally walked more often than those in other spots. Even so, the difference in on base percentage between Ellis and Gordon is still substantial after accounting for those lineup effects.

The Dodgers are leaving runs on the table by batting an OBP-sinkhole in front of Matt Kemp and Andre Ethier. The situation is exacerbated by the fact that their eighth hitter has a .449 OBP and projects to finish at around .390.

While the overall effects of lineup optimization are negligible over the course of the season, effectively swapping Ellis and Gordon will help increase their scoring output and stave off some offensive dropoff when Kemp and Ethier regress.

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Red Sox Should Recall Cook For Some Relief

The Red Sox have to decide toda whether or not to call up Aaron Cook from Pawtucket. The former Rockies starter signed a non-guaranteed, minor league deal with the Red Sox this offseason, but negotiated in an opt-out clause. The clause offered the 33-year old Cook some form of a guarantee on a non-guaranteed deal: if he wasn’t on the major league roster by May 1, he could elect free agency and latch on with another team willing to give him a better opportunity.

With the deadline fast approaching, the decision is really a no-brainer that the Red Sox should call him up. He hasn’t exactly been tearing up the International League, but he has done what he always does: limit walks and keep the ball on the ground. If healthy after two straight injury-plagued campaigns, he could be a big boon to the Red Sox pitching staff.

However, his real benefit to the Red Sox right now is as a reliever. Nowhere in his contract does it stipulate that the May 1 call-up must automatically push him into the rotation, and the Red Sox could best utilize his elite groundballing status as a means of helping to stabilize a messy relief corps.

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Poor Big Pelf Heads For Surgery

Mike Pelfrey’s season is over after just three starts. The 28-year old righty is set to undergo Tommy John Surgery and will miss the rest of the 2012 season.

While all injuries are untimely, this one seemed especially so, as Pelfrey was finally starting to show signs of improving and turning the corner. Through three starts — an admittedly minuscule sample — the results were encouraging. However, more importantly, the inputs leading to those outputs were different, leading many to believe he had altered his approach to better fit his skills.

Unfortunately, for both he and the team, Pelfrey might never get to show the Mets if he finally has turned the corner. Next year is his final year of arbitration eligibility and it’s unlikely that the Mets will tender him a contract. Pelfrey will earn $5.7 million this season and his salary would only increase next season.

Given the uncertainties surrounding his eventual recovery, immediate post-surgery abilities, as well as his past track record of success (or lack thereof), it doesn’t seem very prudent for the Mets to pay him upwards of $6.5-$7 million.

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Free Dontrelle Willis… Literally

Matt Sosnick feels very strongly about the situation his client, Dontrelle Willis, currently finds himself in. Per Jerry Crasnick’s post on the Willis-Orioles drama at ESPN.com:

“I can’t imagine making this kind of deal over something so trivial. We’re talking about a minor league player that Baltimore has relatively no financial investment in whatsoever. It’s the dumbest thing ever and a waste of everybody’s time. Dan has had a thousand chances to ratchet this down a notch, and all he’s done is ratchet it up.” – Matt Sosnick

Sosnick is referring to the Orioles recent transaction placing Willis on the restricted list. The move prevents Willis from signing with another team, even though he supposedly left the organization with the blessing of team officials. Instead, what appears to have happened is that those same officials relayed their recommendations to GM Dan Duquette, who instead placed Willis on the list generally reserved for players who have left the organization, but in whom the team still has interest.

Which means that Willis left the team under the impression that everything was fine, only to find out on the news — according to Sosnick — that he was placed on the restricted list.

While both sides technically have a case here, Sosnick is correct in that this is all much ado about nothing. Dontrelle Willis, quite simply, isn’t worth any of this hullabaloo, and it’s hard to see why the Orioles haven’t just released him. Now that Willis has filed a grievance on the matter, this unnecessary situation is set to get even more out of hand.

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