First off, this post will not discuss anything involving CC Sabathia’s statistics in the playoffs this or last year. Unlike mainstream media outlets, I do not care about the sample size of five games started–1 in 2001, 3 last year, and 1 this year–and I am not automatically going to jump on the his-arm-was-tired-from-so-many-games-on-3-days-rest bandwagon. Is it possible? Sure, but I’m not fully convinced and am not going to make a leap just to sound like I have a concrete opinion on the matter. If I don’t, I’m not going to lie. Instead, what I want to discuss from yesterday’s Phillies-Brewers game is Brett Myers… and I don’t even mean his pitching.

No, I want to discuss Brett Myers‘ plate appearances against Sabathia yesterday, since they resulted in about 1/5 of Sabathia’s total pitches thrown. First, some context!

In the bottom of the second, with the Brewers leading 1-0, CC retired Pat Burrell before Jayson Werth hit a double to left-center. Pedro Feliz then stepped up to bat, and I, along with several other sports bar patrons all spoke of how Sabathia should just throw slider after slider to Feliz, since he really struggles with anything other than fastballs. Hmm, sounds like another Pedro–5 points to whomever guesses which one! Sure enough, CC hung a changeup and Feliz doubled in Werth to tie the game 1-1. Carlos Ruiz then grounded out, advancing Feliz to third base, but making the second out, meaning that it was very unlikely the Phillies would take the lead. After all, Brett Myers, one of the worst hitting pitchers in baseball, was up, with two outs, against one of the best pitchers of the last five years.

What ensued was a shocking nine pitch plate appearance in which Myers not only fouled pitches off, but managed to lay off of some extremely close ones. Sabathia looked visibly frustrated and eventually walked Myers. He then walked Jimmy Rollins before Shane Victorino hit the grand slam. While Victorino will get most of the credit for the Phillies win, I would definitely adjust the WPA of this game to give more credit to Myers, since his plate appearance had an extremely unlikely result and allowed the inning to extend, which in turn allowed Victorino to hit the grand slam.

The Phillies led 5-1 and Myers was cruising. In the fourth inning, Sabathia and Myers met again, this time for an epic 10-pitch at bat in which Myers eventually flew out to centerfield. Once again, he laid off and fouled off pitchess. And it wasn’t as if CC just threw fastballs: each time he pretty much reached back and gave Myers everything in his repertoire. If the Brewers win the next two games, it will set up a likely Sabathia-Hamels matchup in Philadelphia, where CC can look for some redemption. He was wild yesterday, and frustrated at his supposed inability to retire one of the worst hitting pitchers in the game, but this is not CC Sabathia. Brett Myers may get credited with a pitching win and a solid line on the mound, but his time at the plate really helped change this game as well.

While I planned on just watching the Phillies-Brewers game yesterday, all three games ended up being absorbed by my eyes. The stress of watching the Phillies almost give the game back to the Brewers subsided when I got the chance to watch the Cubs-Dodgers game, one in which I vested no personal interest. Then, when I could not fall asleep, I found myself really into a pitcher’s duel between Jon Lester and John Lackey, a very fun Red Sox-Angels game. There were a few things I noticed in these games, both good and bad, that merited some discussion. We’ll start with the Phillies-Brewers game.

Two things stood out for me in this game. First, the Phillies offense was really stifled by Mitch Stetter and Carlos Villanueva. They had trouble hitting Yovani Gallardo, as well, and only scored three runs due to fielding blunders by the Brewers and Gallardo’s early wildness. Managing four hits against Gallardo/Stetter/Villanueva/Parra/Mota does not instill massive confidence in myself heading into a Game Two against CC Sabathia. Secondly, why oh why did Cole Hamels come out of the game?

I am not going to rail on Charlie Manuel for making this decision because Brad Lidge had a terrific year, but Hamels had thrown just 101 pitches, after needing just 18 total to get through the 7th and 8th innings. It may have been the fourth time through the order, but this just felt like a move Manuel made because it was “the right thing to do” or the proper and traditional way to manage. The Phillies did hang on to win the game, but Lidge made it very interesting and because he needed so many pitches to escape the ninth inning, his availability tonight, if needbe, is questionable. As my brother pointed out at Phanatic Phollow Up, there were many more cons than pros to removing Hamels.

Next up, Cubs-Dodgers. I know the announcers mentioned this, but boy did that Wrigley Field crowd sound dead. Yes, Ryan Dempster had the best season of his career this year, but wasn’t the point of acquiring Rich Harden to be your ace? As MGL pointed out at The Book Blog, a healthy Harden is much better than Dempster, but Lou was likely swayed by Dempster’s success at home this year. Dempster didn’t seem to have “it” working last night, but the walks through the first four innings were interspersed and not all at one juncture, so the total kind of crept up. In that fifth inning, though, with Marshall warming up and Dempster clearly not possessing his best stuff, perhaps it would have been prudent to have the lefty face James Loney. Hindsight is 20/20 but it just seemed like Lou had too much unmerited faith in Dempster yesterday.

Also, Cubs fans get stereotyped as fairweather and ignorant from time to time, but for them to applaud Greg Maddux as he made his way to the mound to the ninth inning, while they trailed 7-2, was really nice to see. I felt the same way earlier in the season, when Maddux was with the Padres, and he faced Cole Hamels at Citizens Bank Park. Maddux had pitched quite well and when he left, the Phillies crowd gave him a standing ovation. Fanbases may be stereotyped, and the stereotypes may be there for good reason, but this was just very nice to see.

Lastly, the play everyone will talk about in the Angels-Red Sox game is Vladimir Guerrero‘s attempt at an extra base on Torii Hunter‘s bloop over Kevin Youkilis’s head. My immediate reaction to that play was – “Wow, Youk got that ball so quickly!” It is very easy to see the play develop and question why Guerrero, a slower runner, would even make that attempt, but if that same play occurs ten times, I would wager Youkilis gets the ball that quickly once. That is the type of play where the ball kicks around, or the first- and second-baseman struggle to recover, allowing a first and third situation. Guerrero saw the ball go over his head, figured this would happen, and went for third. I cannot fault him at all. It wasn’t as if Mark Teixeira was on deck. First and third for Howie Kendrick is much more appealing than first and second.

Overall, a pretty exciting first day of playoff baseball with two road teams taking game one. For Thursday, we have James Shields vs. Javier Vazquez at 2:30, Brett Myers vs. CC Sabathia at 6 PM, and Chad Billingsley vs. Carlos Zambrano at 9:30 PM.

The Fireman of the Year Award is a rather meaningless award designed to promote some sponsor of major league baseball while simultaneously honoring the game’s best closer or relief pitcher. While the Academy Awards have the Razzies, this Fireman award does not have a reverse award designated to honor the league’s worst relievers. Yesterday, we took a look at the five worst starting pitchers of 2008, and today we will look to those in the bullpen. While WPA/LI was used to evaluate the starters, I decided to use both the leveraged and unleveraged WPA to check out the relievers. Here are the bottom five relievers via WPA/LI:

Brad Hennessey, -1.36: 13 g, 17.1 IP, 40 H, 8 BB, 12 K, 2.77 WHIP, 12.46 ERA
Jamie Walker, -1.36: 59 g, 12 HR in 38 IP, 1.68 WHIP, 6.87 ERA
Joel Peralta, -1.23: 40 g, 1.33 WHIP, 5.98 ERA, 15 HR in 52.2 IP, 14 BB, 38 K
Bob Howry, -1.23: 72 g, 1.46 WHIP, 5.35 ERA, 13 HR in 70.2 IP, 13 BB, 59 K
Gary Majewski, -1.19: 37 g, 1.90 WHIP, 6.53 ERA, 15 BB, 27 K in 40 IP

From these five, it is pretty remarkable that Hennessey accrued such negative impact in just 13 games, which portends that he might be able to dethrone Brandon Backe as the worst pitcher in baseball. Walker has given up plenty of home runs relative to his innings pitched, and Majewski does not really have anything positive working for him either. Peralta’s walk and strikeout numbers look solid, as he is right around the corner from a 3.00 K/BB, but he has given up a ton of home runs in just 52.2 innings. Howry’s K/BB is over 4.00, but he gives up a lot of hits and home runs. Next up, the bottom five by WPA:

Jason Isringhausen, -2.96: 42 g, 1.64 WHIP, 5.70 ERA
Luis Ayala, -2.85: 81 g, 1.45 WHIP, 5.71 ERA
Jamie Walker, -2.41: SEE ABOVE
Mark Lowe, -2.24: 57 g, 1.76 WHIP, 5.37 ERA
Masa Kobayashi, -2.19: 1.42 WHIP, 4.53 ERA, 2.50 K/BB

Two things should stand out from these five pitchers. First, Jamie Walker is the only reliever to bottom out in both WPA and WPA/LI, and secondly, Kobayashi does not look that bad. He has 14 walks and 35 strikeouts in his 57 appearances, but his hits allowed have raised the WHIP. He is actually the only reliever of the nine listed here with a sub 5.00 ERA. ERA might not be the best evaluator for relievers, but his controllable skills look better than most of the rest.

So, I will leave the votes in your hands for the Anti-Fireman of the Year Award. Does it go to Jamie Walker, who showed poor skills whether the plate appearances counted as one or more plate appearances? To Hennessey, who stunk it up so badly in just 13 games that he actually posted the worst WPA? Or maybe Majewski, who had literally nothing positive working for him or to fall back on?

Cliff Lee, CC Sabathia, Tim Lincecum, Johan Santana, and Roy Halladay all had fantastic and very storied seasons. A couple of these guys will go home with some hardware before the year ends, and the rest can take solace in the millions of dollars they are, or will be, making. Some pitchers were, suffice it to say, not as good, and the opposite in terms of effectivenss, of the five mentioned above. Let’s take a look at the worst five pitchers in baseball this year, via WPA/LI, to see if there is anything at all positive to take away.

Brandon Backe just may be the worst pitcher in baseball consistently given start after start, and his league worst -2.90 WPA/LI topped or bottomed all others. In 166.2 innings, he posted a 6.05 ERA with a 1.67 WHIP. His FIP did not portend any type of luck, either, as it finished the season at 5.87, thanks to a rather pedestrian 1.65 K/BB. In raw numbers, 77 walks and 127 strikeouts might be acceptable for a rookie with massive upside, but that does not fit Backe’s bill. His .326 BABIP may have been a bit unlucky, but nowhere near the level of unluckiness that a couple other on this list experienced. Why this man still gets paid to pitch in the major leagues befuddles me.

Ian Snell was the next closest, with a -2.82 WPA/LI, but his story is a little different. Despite finishing with an ugly 5.42 ERA, his FIP pegged him at 4.57. Walking 89 and giving up 201 hits in just 164.1 innings results in a 1.76 WHIP, but the hits are unlikely to come at this rate in subsequent years, because it is very unlikely that Snell will sustain a .358 BABIP. His strikeouts may never be excellent compared to his walks, but he is better than he performed this season. The hits should regress next season but if he really wants to take the next step towards a solid career, he will need to control his controllable skills on top of that.

Everyone in the statistical analysis world fell in love with Brian Bannister this off-season after his interview with Tim Dierkes at MLB Trade Rumors. Bannister knows what he has to do to succeed, but just didn’t do it too well this season. His 5.76 ERA was mainly the byproduct of a 63.9% LOB coupled with a 1.49 WHIP. That WHIP is actually the lowest of the bunch, and his 1.95 K/BB is the highest. Additionally, his .316 BABIP was the least unlucky, and his xFIP says he actually posted better controllable skills metrics than last year. If anyone in this group has something positive to look forward to next year, it would be Bannister.

Kenny Rogers and Livan Hernandez, on the other hand, just should not be pitching in the major leagues anymore, period. The Rockies sure made an upgrade when they got rid of Kip Wells and replaced him with Hernandez. That’s the equivalent of, well, it’s the equivalent of replacing one really bad item with one that could actually be worse… and then using that potentially worse item for the rest of the season! Hernandez posted a 3.35 K/9. Matt and Marc could probably strike out more batters than that. Kidding aside for a second, he surrendered 257 hits this year in just 180 innings, struck out just 67 hitters, and stranded just 65% of the runners that reached base to the tune of a 1.67 WHIP. His FIP was much lower than his 6.05 ERA, at 4.94, but his career should be over.

Rogers’ numbers are very similar, as he had a 66% LOB, a 5.70 ERA, and a 5.22 FIP. He barely struck anyone out either, and walked enough to produce a 1.15 K/BB. He was not that unlucky in the BABIP department either, meaning he largely just stunk this year. He may have been a key cog in the rotation of the 2006 Tigers, but he is on the last legs of a solid career, and should walk away before we remember him for years like this past one. I would expect Snell and Bannister to experience some type of rebound next season, but Backe, Hernandez, and Rogers should be out of baseball.

This morning we took a look at some of the hitters who performed extremely well over the final month of the season, but went largely unnoticed for a variety of factors. Now, let’s take a similar look at the best under the radar pitchers. Again, we are using WPA/LI as our barometer. For starters, Roy Oswalt and Derek Lowe dominated the season’s final month, posting a 1.64 and 1.27 mark, respectively. In six starts, Oswalt pitched 44.1 innings, surrendering 24 hits, walking just six hitters, while striking out 30 of them. He allowed baserunners to the tune of a 0.68 WHIP, and allowed just 1.42 runs per nine innings. Lowe allowed even less hits and runs. In five starts and 30.1 innings, he managed a 0.59 ERA and a 0.76 WHIP. Other than these two, who performed well on the mound?

Jesse Litsch did, for sure. Formerly an intern for the Tampa Bay Rays (I honestly didn’t write Devil!) Litsch found himself a key component of baseball’s best rotation and he definitely had a September to remember. In six starts, he compiled a 1.13 WPA/LI thanks to a 2.18 ERA, 1.02 WHIP, and just 27 hits surrendered in 41.1 innings. For the season, Litsch recorded a 3.58 ERA, 4.29 FIP, and a 2.54 K/BB. He may be one of the least intimidating pitchers, based on mound presence and appearance, but he throws all of his pitches at least 10% of the time and looks to have great control over his controllable skills.

I never thought I would ever get the chance to write anything positive about Kyle Davies, a guy I used to wish would face the Phillies when on the Braves, but he… wasn’t… that… bad… this year. His overall season saw him make 21 starts with a 4.05 ERA and 4.22 FIP. His K/BB was the highest it has ever been at just 1.65, but hey, at least it is some type of an improvement. In September he was 1.10 wins above average, with a 2.27 ERA and a 0.92 WHIP, walking 7 and fanning 24 in 31.2 innings.

Mark Buehrle seems to do the same thing every year. He isn’t a Cy Young Award contender, and he is above average, but he is in that area between being slightly above average and being well above average. This year was a typical Buehrle line with a 3.79 ERA and a 3.94 FIP. In September, he produced a 0.94 WPA/LI, posting a 2.29 ERA and 1.25 WHIP, while striking out 30 and walking ten.

Lastly, another Royal found his way into this article. Zack Greinke had a great September, posting a 2.18 ERA and 1.00 WHIP, resulting in a 0.92 WPA/LI. He walked just 7 while fanning 32 in his 33 innings of work. On the whole, he produced a 3.47 ERA, 3.56 FIP, and 3.27 K/BB. Zack also experienced the highest frequency of groundballs in his entire, but short, career. With a .318 BABIP I would normally call for some type of regression, but Zack has posted BABIPs of .318, .316, and .318 over the last three seasons, so perhaps this should be expected.

The headlines were dominated by Sabathia, Lee, Halladay, Lincecum, and Santana, but Oswalt and Lowe staked claim as September’s best, and the five players mentioned above were decent surprises.

Ryan Howard had a scorchingly hot month of September, as he hit .352/.422/.852, with 11 home runs. Producing a 1.68 WPA/LI in the month put the slugging first baseman ahead of all other hitters in the season’s final month and likely earned him plenty of undeserving MVP votes. There were several other hitters, however, that had performed extremely well in September, yet whose work in that span will likely go unnoticed by the larger fanbase of major league baseball. A couple of these players have been covered here before, but at least two will surprise or shock you.

First, Andre Ethier finished just one-tenth of a win behind Howard, as his final month resulted in a 1.57 WPA/LI. Dave mentioned here that the talk of Manny Ramirez as MVP was a bit odd considering that Ethier was arguably better than Manny since his arrival. In September, Ethier hit .462/.557/.692, with 12 extra base hits. His batting order compadre, Ramirez, hit .370/.465/.753. There is no doubt that Manny is a big reason that the Dodgers were able to win the division, but nobody should sell Ethier short. His performance over the last few months has been just as important.

Felipe Lopez is quite the interesting case. He was solid for the Reds a few years back, went to the Nationals as part of that odd Austin Kearns–Gary Majewski trade, and was deemed to be so ineffective this year that the Nationals–yes, the Nationals–let him go. After all, in 100 games, he was hitting a measly .234/.305/.314. The Cardinals were quick to snatch him up and he did not disappoint. In 43 games, he hit .385/.426/.538, numbers you may expect from Cardinals-teammate Albert Pujols, but not the light-hitting Lopez. This past month, he hit .414/.443/.596, with 6 doubles and 4 home runs. For those keeping score, that means he hit 2/3 of his total number of home runs over the final month.

Shin-Soo Choo of the Indians had a tremendous more-than-half-season with the Indians. In the final month, he hit .400/.464/.659, with 5 doubles and 5 home runs. He was not this hot during the entire season, but his overall numbers and very impressive: .309/.387/.549, 28 doubles and 14 home runs in 94 games. His teammate, Asdrubal Cabrera, started off alarmingly slow, but finished very strong, with a .416/.455/.571 in September, complete with 6 doubles and 2 home runs. It didn’t bring his seasonal line to that of Choo’s, but he did manage to “up” it to .259/.346/.366.

Lastly, Joey Votto of the Reds had a great rookie season, hitting .297/.368/.506 in his first year of big league action. His 32 doubles and 24 home runs are equally impressive and his continued development will be a big part of the Reds’ success moving forward. Over the final month, though, his batting average rose just slightly to .309, but his OBP rose to .400 and his SLG jumped to .723. One fourth of those doubles came in September, and 9 of those 24 home runs did as well. He also showed he could be fleet of foot, adding 2 triples.

The regular season is just about over, so you would think the performances of these players would be fresh in our minds, but unfortunately they are not covered too often. Tonight we will take a look at pitchers who flew under the radar in September. This would basically be anyone not named Sabathia, Lee, Halladay, or Lincecum.

In my very first post here at Fangraphs, back on April 14, I took a look at Phillies leftfielder Pat Burrell, and how his numbers had been very consistent over the last few years. They had also been consistently better than his reputation would suggest; his reputation was seemingly spawned from a very poor 2003 season following his 6 yr-50 mil extension. His batting average will only be high thanks to very high BABIPs, but based on his 2005-07 numbers, he was as much of a sure thing in the OBP, SLG, OPS, and BB department as you can find. He might not have been atop the leaderboards for each of these metrics, but you knew exactly the type of production he would provide. And, to top it off, he cut back on his strikeouts.

He started out scorchingly hot, hitting 8 home runs with a 1.126 OPS in 28 April games, before cooling in May. June and July saw “the bat” range from .956-.973 in OPS, before his much documented slide in August and September. Even when he struggled, however, he seemed capable of stepping up in crunchtime, and his 1.15 clutch score, ninth highest in baseball this year, seems to agree. On the whole, Pat hit .250/.367/.507 this year, an .875 OPS, with 33 doubles, 33 home runs, and 102 walks. Using win based metrics, he was worth about 2.5 wins above an average hitter via WPA/LI, and his 3.78 WPA ranked 12th in the sport.

As I did back in April, let’s compare his last few seasons:

2005: .389 OBP, .504 SLG, 27 2B, 32 HR, 99 BB
2006: .388 OBP, .502 SLG, 24 2B, 29 HR, 98 BB
2007: .400 OBP, .502 SLG, 26 2B, 30 HR, 114 BB
2008: .367 OBP, .507 SLG, 33 2B, 33 HR, 102 BB

His OBP was down from the previous three years but his SLG outranked his marks in 2005-07, even if by the slightest of margins. His home runs and doubles increased, evidenced by his .257 ISO, his highest in this span. Pat’s BABIP, which went from .341 to .298 to .283 from 2005-07, fell to .275 this year. The Phillies won the NL East for the second straight season, thanks in part to his hot early season performance, which made up for the slow start of Ryan Howard. Howard returned the favor over the last month of the season, but if the Phillies want to avoid a repeat of last year’s division series, both sluggers will need to be at the top of their games.

Pat will be a free agent at the end of this season, and while he has expressed a strong desire to remain in Philadelphia, it just does not seem like a viable option. His fielding has deteriorated to the point that some teams in the senior circuit may seriously shy away from him. It would appear that he would fit best in the American League, where he could work as a designated hitter, but we will have to wait and see. He has been one of the top offensive leftfielders over the last four years and it is a shame that so many in Philadelphia could not get over his very poor 2003 campaign. Burrell is not a hall of famer, and he has never even been named to the all star team, but there are many teams out there, including the Phillies, that could continue to benefit from his bat for the next few years.

Well, the regular season is not entirely over, as the White Sox and Tigers play at 2 PM EST today. The south side bunch trails the Twins by one half game in the AL Central, meaning the best they could do is force a tie with a win, leading to a one game playoff. The White Sox are putting the season in the hands of Gavin Floyd, who has definitely exceeded expectations this season. Jim Leyland is handing the ball to Freddy Garcia, former Mariners and White Sox great, who won a ring with the White Sox in 2005.

Garcia spent last season with the Phillies, though most of it was not actually spent with the Phillies, as he missed a large portion of the season due to injury. And, as a Phillies fan, I can attest to the fact that while he did look great in spurts in the several starts he did make, he was more than largely ineffective. He spent the last year and a half or so rehabbing and getting back in shape, hoping to audition for, and impress, a team willing to give him a chance this season.

The White Sox were one of these teams, but Ozzie Guillen felt that Freddy just was not ready yet, and likely would not return this season. Garcia used these words as a motivational tool, driving him to prove he was definitely ready for big league action. Sportscenter hinted that Garcia held some ill will towards Guillen for the comments; I am sincerely hoping this was more of a literary technique by the anchor as opposed to the truth, since Guillen’s comments (for once) were pretty harmless in this case.

He has made two previous starts, compiling 10 IP, 9 H, 5 ER, 3 HR, 3 BB, 9 K. I will refrain from discussing, in detail, his 4.50 ERA, 6.43 FIP, or 8.10 K/9, since he has made just two appearances, but a solid performance from Garcia, against his old team, could knock the White Sox out of the playoffs. Let’s hope this does not happen, however, or else we will be one step closer to dozens of mainstream newspapers discussing how the Mets with Johan Santana did not get in but the Twins sans-Santana are still alive in October.

Three games remain for both the Phillies and Mets. The Phillies currently hold a one game lead in the NL East, and the Mets are deadlocked with the Brewers atop the Wild Card standings. The Mets have not blown a 7.5 game lead like last year, but the similarities to last year at this same time are pretty striking. Entering the final series in 2007, the Phillies and Mets were tied, and were set to host the Nationals and Marlins at home, respectively. In the first game, Cole Hamels looked dominant, striking out thirteen Nationals en route to a 6-0 win. Up north, Oliver Perez fell to Byung-Hyun Kim, 7-4, giving the Phillies a one game lead.

The next day, John Maine had a Hamels-like performance as the Mets beat up on the Marlins, 13-0. The Phillies were not as lucky, and why should they have been, with Adam Eaton on the mound? Why Eaton was pitching on such an important day will forever escape me and the multitude of Phillies fans. Anyways, they lost 4-2, once again bringing the division to a tie. On the final Sunday, I will never forget watching in shock (and glee) as Tom Glavine imploded and the Marlins erupted for seven runs in the first inning. Ramon Castro came a few inches short of a grand slam to make the score 7-5, and the Mets were down and out. Jamie Moyer, meanwhile, looked brilliant for the Phillies, as they clinched the division with a 6-1 victory.

Weather permitting, the Phillies will host the Nationals for three this weekend, while the Marlins visit Shea Stadium. Below are the tentative matchups:

Phillies vs. Nationals
Friday: Joe Blanton vs. Collin Balester
Saturday: Jamie Moyer vs. John Lannan
Sunday: Cole Hamels vs. Odalis Perez

Mets vs. Marlins
Friday: Mike Pelfrey vs. Chris Volstad
Saturday: Brandon Knight (?) vs. Ricky Nolasco
Sunday: Johan Santana vs. Scott Olsen

The question mark is not meant to serve as an insult towards Knight but rather it points towards the fact that the Mets seemingly have not decided who will pitch Saturday. The New York announcers speculated Knight would toe the rubber tomorrow and he very well might. Should the Phillies or Mets clinch prior to the final game, Hamels and Santana will likely be given the day off in order to pitch in the first game of a playoff series. With the way the forecast looks this weekend, these final games may be Monday or Tuesday. The circumstances of this season’s division race is different than last year, but just like then, both teams will have to stave off potential spoilers to earn their way into October baseball.

Back at the beginning of the season, fans in Cincinnati did not really know what to expect after trading away best-story winner Josh Hamilton for a slender righthanded pitcher named Edinson Volquez. After a month, many were convinced that the trade was a win-win, because Hamilton’s bat caught fire and Volquez emerged as the early Cy Young Award favorite in the National League. Few had truly heard of Volquez or knew anything about his repertoire, velocity, or potential, but he dominated hitters left and right, posting some insane numbers in the process. In fact, if Cliff Lee had not had an Orel Hershiser-esque stretch, Volquez would have looked even better early on.

In his first 13 games, 12 of which were starts, Volquez amassed 75 innings, giving up just 49 hits, only 3 of which were longballs. Walks were a bit of an issue as he surrendered 38 free passes, but he showed the ability to miss bats with 91 strikeouts, a 10.92 K/9. His ERA was a measly 1.32, his average game score was 68, and hitters were posting a .188/.303/.261 slash line against.

Over his last 20 starts, his numbers have regressed, and his position atop the out-of-nowhere-story throne was lost, but his overall season is still quite good. In this 20-start span, Volquez posted the following: 121 IP, 118 H, 11 HR, 55 BB, 115 K, 4.39 ERA, 51 GSC, .257/.345/.403. Okay, so he became human again and looked a bit closer to what we would expect from an average pitcher instead of the dominant force through the beginning of June. But hey, Hamilton regressed too, so it is still a win-win.

Combined, Volquez is at 196 innings pitched, just 167 hits surrendered, 93 walks, and 206 strikeouts. His 9.46 K/9 is very attractive but the 4.27 BB/9 chips away a bit. A 2.22 K/BB is not terrible but his one glaring flaw this season lies in the walks issued. His 3.21 ERA is not deemed out of line based on his 3.59 FIP, and while his 1.33 WHIP is closer to average than dominant, his 75.5% strand rate has ensured a good portion of those runners remained put. He should get one more start to finish up the season, making it very likely for him to surpass the 200 IP mark with solid numbers to backup that amount of usage. He might not win any postseason awards and he may have regressed since the beginning of June, but Edinson Volquez still put together one heck of a season