This off-season, the free agent starting pitching market was not much to get excited about. Guys like Carlos Silva were given, well, ludicrous deals that mostly everyone criticized. One of the starting pitchers I expected to get a similar deal was Kyle Lohse. Things did not exactly work out that way, as Lohse’s asking price steadily declined. The Cardinals eventually signed Lohse to a 1-yr, 4 million dollar deal, that is making them look like geniuses right now.

In 30 starts, Lohse has arguably been their staff ace, producing a 3.76 ERA supported by a 3.85 FIP. His 5.24 K/9 is on the lower end of his career numbers, however a decrease in his walk rate from the last few years has resulted in a very respectable 2.41 K/BB ratio. He gets hit around a bit, but you could do much worse than a 1.29 WHIP. Couple that with an above average 73.6% strand rate, and more often than not, a successful pitcher will surface.

Is his performance surprising? Yes, but there were some telltale signs that he might actually be improving. Since 2004, his K/BB has essentially risen each year, while his HR/9 has decreased. Right now, his HR/9 of 0.79 is by far the lowest it has ever been. One potential reason for this change is his GB/FB, which, at 1.47, is higher than any rate he has posted. Additionally, he is using his fastball much more this year, cutting back on his changeups.

Lohse was pretty much the definition of a league average pitcher coming into the season, and while he may not have gotten the long-term, big-money deal he sought prior to this year, a WPA/LI of 1.70 that still has room to grow should get him something a bit more lucrative this off-season.

Back towards the beginning of the year, over at Statistically Speaking, I posted twenty questions ranging in difficulty as a fun little break. The third question—Who is the only player to hit two grand slams in the same inning and off whom did he hit them?—can be answered with the names Fernando Tatis and Chan Ho Park. Tatis mashed two grand slams off of Park back in April, 1999. With their careers seemingly over, both players had become answers to that question as opposed to players teams rely on or employ.

After several injury-plagued years with the Cardinals and Expos, Tatis returned home to the Dominican Republic to spend time with his family. He did not play baseball in 2004 or 2005, save for some spring training with the then Devil Rays in 2004. The desire to build a church in his hometown of San Pedro de Macoris prompted his return to baseball. He appeared in 28 games for the Orioles in 2006, producing an .813 OPS in limited action.

Last season, he signed a minor league deal with the Mets and spent the entire year on their AAA squad. One of his teammates was none other than Chan Ho Park, also looking to get his career back in order, albeit under different circumstances. Tatis was out of baseball and Park, well, ought to have been. Park ended up making one mostly terrible start for the Mets while Tatis awaited his chance. Meanwhile, the church he had been saving money to build was built while he played in the minors.

This year, Park returned “home” to Los Angeles, going back to where his career began. Though his controllable skills are nothing to write home about—a 4.56 FIP—his ERA is a mere 3.05 and he has been very effective out of the Dodgers bullpen. Tatis finally got his callup thanks to injuries to both Moises Alou and Ryan Church. He has not disappointed either. In just 83 games, Tatis is hitting .291/.360/.482, with 11 home runs.

His knack for timely hitting has resulted in a 2.34 WPA, which, even in just half of a season, outranks Nick Markakis, Kevin Youkilis, and Jason Giambi. Now, his WPA/LI is 0.57, much lower than the standard win probability metric suggests, which portends much clutch hitting. Park has been the same way, as his 0.75 WPA exceeds his -0.14 WPA/LI. However, as we mentioned yesterday, WPA isn’t a bad stat to use when looking at relievers, since the situations in which they pitch are usually so crucial.

Tatis has spent most of his time in the outfield, where he is a +3 defender in LF and a -2 in RF. Basically, he is an average fielder with an above average hitting line. If this was some youngster called up from AAA, we would likely be praising him, but because of the name recognition and the semblance of shock that Tatis is still playing baseball, that wow factor does not seem to exist as much. Something we can wow at, however, is that Park has somehow increased his fastball velocity from 88.4-88.5 mph in recent years to just about 93 mph this year. It’s normal for players to fluctuate within maybe 0.3-0.5 mph from one year to the next, but 4.5-5 mph?

Tatis and Park might no longer be the versions of themselves from the mid-90’s, but the 2008 editions have been quite productive.

Quick, name the top two relievers in terms of WPA/LI… no, it isn’t Francisco Rodriguez. Not Brad Lidge, either. Brad Ziegler is a good guess, but sadly, no, he is not in the top two. If you said Mariano Rivera, kudos, because you’re getting warmer, but he comes in at spot number three. The top two relievers this year have been Hong-Chih Kuo of the Dodgers and Scott Downs of the Blue Jays. How many of you honestly guessed them? And, for the record, a guess does not involve hovering over the leaders tab, clicking ‘majors’, clicking ‘win probability’, clicking ‘relievers’, and then sorting by WPA/LI.

Kuo, a Dodgers lefty, leads all of baseball with a 2.35 WPA/LI, which basically means he has been worth almost two and a half wins more than an average relief pitcher. Downs, a Toronto lefty, has a 2.19 WPA/LI, close to Kuo, but still distanced by a good margin. To further clarify, Lidge ranks 13th at 1.36, Ziegler 17th at 1.34, and K-Rod 34th at 0.99.

While both pitchers have some statistical similarities, it seems they are getting their jobs done in different ways. Kuo has pitched in 40 games, three of which were starts, amassing 78.1 innings. He has allowed just 55 hits, only four of which left the yard. Additionally, his very low walk-rate—19 total in his 78.1 innings—has combined with the lack of hits to produce a 0.94 WHIP. He also strikes out a ton of hitters to the tune of 94 total and a 10.80 K/9.

Essentially, Kuo barely allows balls to leave the yard, barely allows baserunners, and strikes out many. Yep, I would say that is a formula for a tremendous relief pitcher. On the year, his 2.07 ERA is largely supported by a 2.20 FIP. His 79.8% LOB is great but not earth-shattering and is definitely sustainable, as we have seen elite relievers sustain very high strand rates. Kuo, who throws his 93 mph fastball over 80% of the time, is also more of a groundball pitcher, evidenced by his 1.48 GB/FB.

Downs, however, is MUCH more of a groundball pitcher. In his 61 appearances and 66 innings, just 11.9% of balls in play have been line drives, with 65% being hit on the ground. His GB/FB comes in at 2.88, almost double the rate of Kuo. Downs has surrendered just 47 hits, only two of which are home runs, but his walk and strikeout rates are not as dominant as Kuo’s. With 23 walks and 56 strikeouts, his 1.23 ERA vastly outdoes his 3.02 FIP.

Downs’ WHIP is higher as well, at 1.06, however he has stranded 89.9% of the runners that reach base; even though he allows more, he has stranded a much higher percentage than Kuo. I have heard and read Blue Jays fans hoping he could become a starter, but to do that he will really need to develop another pitch. At this juncture, he literally seems to use only a fastball and curveball, as both have accounted for just about 97% of his deliveries.

Kuo definitely seems to have the more sustainable and talent-driven line, but that should not take anything away from Downs’ effectiveness in relief this year. Both have been outstanding, and neither seem to garner the publicity they are due. Relievers are a fickle bunch, so who knows if they will be anywhere near the answer to this same question next year, but they have been rocks for their respective teams this season.

One of the statistical terms we mention quite a bit here when evaluating players is regression. The given definition of the word is to go back or return to a previous state. With regards to baseball players, we use the word to describe what is likely to happen to players either over- or underachieving at any given point in a season.

Chipper Jones was hitting .400 halfway through the season. Did we expect him to continue that torrid pace all year? No, his performance was expected to regress as more plate appearances were accrued. The term can be a bit confusing because it so often finds itself used with overachieving players, but, just like Chipper Jones, it goes both ways… to clarify, that’s a switch-hitter joke. Regression can also refer to a player like Robinson Cano, who performed so poorly at the beginning of this year that you knew he just had to get better. His regression resulted in an impovement.

Three pitchers we have discussed multiple times on this site in posts involving this very term are Joe Saunders, Ervin Santana, and Gavin Floyd. All three are in the midst of career years, but either their ERA-FIP differential or true talent projections told us that they would not be very likely to sustain their performance levels all year. Since all three have made 27 starts, let’s compare the first 18 to the most recent 9 (keep in mind that the FIP is crude here, merely adding 3.20 instead of the exact figure):

Joe Saunders, LAA
18: 120.1 IP, 105 H, 14 HR, 31 BB, 63 K, 3.07 ERA, 4.44 FIP
9:  50.1 IP,   62 H,  5 HR, 17 BB, 18 K, 5.19 ERA, 4.79 FIP

Gavin Floyd, CHW
18: 111.2 IP, 87 H, 17 HR, 47 BB, 75 K, 3.63 ERA, 5.10 FIP
9:  55.1 IP,  56 H,  6 HR, 17 BB, 44 K, 3.58 ERA, 3.94 FIP

Ervin Santana, LAA
18: 121.1 IP, 106 H, 12 HR, 32 BB, 112 K, 3.56 ERA, 3.43 FIP
9:  62.1 IP,   57 H,  6 HR, 11 BB,  71 K, 2.70 ERA, 2.89 FIP

Oddly enough, only Saunders has experienced any type of regression over his most recent nine starts. Floyd and Santana have improved. While Floyd’s ERA is essentially the same in the split, his FIP is much better, meaning the performance has been more skill-driven than before. Santana has been pitching lately like the guy on the Mets with the same last name, if not better. With only four or so starts remaining for each of these players, barring some Sabathia-in-April-type performances, not much damage to their overall stat-lines can be done.

Still, one year of data isn’t enough to evaluate a player and the true talent level will still give us a much better estimate. This is why, even though Floyd and Santana are pitching very well, I would have to imagine they do not strike confidence in fans of the South Siders and Halos. The last important thing to remember is that regression does not always result in a bad season. Even though Saunders has performed poorly lately, he is not that bad, and still has a very solid ERA. He isn’t as good as we were “led to believe” early on, but not as bad as his most recent starts. The jury is still out on Floyd and Santana. Hopefully, next year, at this time, we’ll know if they are for real or flashes in the pan.

Roy Oswalt has been one of the best and most consistent pitchers in baseball this decade. He never got enough credit, likely due to pitching with Roger Clemens for the last few years, and does not have an intimidating frame out on the mound, but any team would be better with him on their staff. This year, though, many analysts have questioned what is wrong with Astros righty. Baseball is a game of reputations, and it is very possible for a player to have an entire season generalized on great or poor performance either very early or very late into a season.

This seems to be the case for Oswalt, who pitched poorly early on, but has been great recently, arguably the best starting pitcher in baseball over the last thirty days. Don’t believe me? Heck, based on his performance early on and the lack of national publicity directed towards the Astros, I wouldn’t believe that either, but his 1.47 WPA/LI in this span outranks everyone else.

His recent performance has lowered his seasonal ERA and FIP both to 3.91 which, while good, are definitely worse than we have come to expect from Oswalt. His FIPs since 2004 have been 3.17, 3.16, 3.30 and 3.59, leading to this year’s 3.91; it appears his controllable skills are steadily declining. Are they? His K/9 is the highest it has been since 2004, while his BB/9 is almost a half-batter lower than last year. His HR/9, however, which has ranged from 0.59 to 0.73 recently, is currently 1.09, which explains quite a bit.

How has the home run rate increased? The culprit is a HR/FB rate that has gone from 6.7-8.7% over the last four years to 13.8% this year. The league average in this category is generally 11-11.5%, so Oswalt had outdone it by a good margin for a few years. This year, though, his rate has been worse, despite decreasing quite a bit over the past month.

This leads into the title of the post. Yesterday, Pizza Cutter, my colleague at Statistically Speaking, wrote an article about Kelly Johnson in which he discussed how performance is equal to talent and luck; last year, Johnson’s performance was more luck-driven, whereas this year his performance is worse, but comprised of more talent. How does this apply to Oswalt? Well, since his HR/FB was so much lower than the average for those years, his FIP might not be the most accurate indicator of controllable skills. Look what happens when we introduce xFIP, which normalizes the home run factor of FIP:

Year   FIP     xFIP
2004   3.17    3.73
2005   3.16    3.56
2006   3.30    3.75
2007   3.59    4.08
2008   3.91    3.74

According to these numbers, Oswalt’s FIP is expected to be right around where it should have been from 2004-2006. The difference between FIP and xFIP is at its smallest point this year, meaning that Oswalt’s current performance is more talent driven than the result of “luck,” which I use very loosely because there may or may not have been something in his repertoire that limited home runs. His flyball rates have stayed stagnant, however, eliminating the possibility that perhaps he just had very low percentages of flyballs in those years.

We might not know how much talent or luck Oswalt has or benefits from, but he isn’t as bad as some people made him out to be earlier in the season. His xFIP has been in the same general range for the last five years. If there is something wrong with him, it would be that this is the first year in that span in which his FIP has not surpassed what was expected of him.

Bottom of the second. No score. Indians vs. White Sox. John Danks on the mound, Jhonny Peralta on first. Victor Martinez at the dish. Danks checks the runner, delivers the first pitch to Martinez. CRACK! Victor launches the ball deep to the leftield line… it… is… outta’ here! Indians fans cheered as the Tribe took a 2-0 lead in a game they would go onto win 9-3. Believe it or not, this was the first home run of the season for Victor.

Yes, Victor no longer belongs to the 200+ PA/0 HR club. Its other members: Joey Gathright, Chone Figgins, Omar Vizquel, Brendan Ryan, Miguel Cairo, Augie Ojeda, and Juan Pierre will have to say goodbye to their colleague.

Sure, Victor’s season has been hindered by injuries but, still, 57 games and neary a dinger until last night? From Victor Martinez? The guy might not be Barry Bonds out there, but over the last four years he was an extremely solid bet to OPS around .860, with 20+ home runs and 35+ doubles. Including last night, Victor is hitting just .274/.328/.344, with 1 home run and 12 doubles.

According to his gamelogs, this is by far the most games he has ever gone without a home run. From April 16, 2005-May 27, 2005, he went homerless in a string of 32 games. This almost doubled that amount. As Dave mentioned last week, his replacement Kelly Shoppach is leading all AL catchers in home runs, so the Indians are still getting production from that department, just not where they expected. The Tribe won’t make the playoffs this year but a hearty congratulations goes out to V-Mart on his first home run of the year. I hope he got to keep the ball.

While researching for the article my brother and I are writing in this year’s THT Annual, I stumbled across an interesting tidbit regarding Pat Gillick: he loves acquiring players he formerly employed. I won’t go through the whole list now, but, with the Phillies at least, he signed or traded for Jamie Moyer, Arthur Rhodes, Greg Dobbs, Freddy Garcia, and Ryan Franklin. Another former player of his is Jayson Werth. Werth never played for Gillick’s Blue Jays, Orioles, or Mariners, but he was drafted by Gillick’s Orioles in the first round back in 1997.

It should come as no surprise, then, that when Werth was let go by the Dodgers following injury recovery, Gillick jumped up and brought him to the Phillies. He performed well in a platoon role last year and looked to possess all the raw skills that make a player successful. This year, the plan was for Werth to platoon with Geoff Jenkins in right field. Jenkins was inconsistent—or consistently below average depending on how you want to phrase it—and is now hurt, while Werth has been a rock for the Phillies. In fact, over the last fourteen days, no other hitter has contributed more wins to his team than Werth.

That’s right… over the last fourteen days, Jayson’s 1.16 WPA/LI leads all major league hitters. Mark Teixeira is in second place at 0.90, just about one quarter of a win lower. Werth’s WPA in this span ranks third in the NL and fifth in the whole sport, behind three Carlos’s (Beltran, Delgado, Pena) and Shin-Soo Choo. This impressive run is built upon a .370/.492/.804 slash line, complete with 5 home runs and 5 doubles.

All told, Werth is hiting .279/.377/.525 this year, a .902 OPS, with 21 home runs in 326 at-bats. He has turned some of his grounders into flyballs and has a 22.6% HR/FB, up from last year’s 13.3%. His 2.52 WPA/LI on the season ranks, believe it or not, 15th in the National League, ahead of Carlos Beltran, Jose Reyes, Dan Uggla, Prince Fielder, and Adrian Gonzalez. Whether or not some of those players are having down years, the fact remains that Jayson Werth, a low risk acquisition prior to last season, is one of the main reasons the Phillies are still within striking distance of the NL East.

There are only two major league hitters right now with a WPA of 2.00 or above that have single-digit home run marks: Joe Mauer (8) and Brian Roberts (9). Mauer gets plenty of pub regardless of his power outages but it seems that Roberts is still considered a “fluke” due to his great 2005 season that is yet to be matched. Following that tremendous campaign he had a disappointing 2006, which saw his OPS drop almost 200 points, and I’m not sure he has regained any of his reputation since that disappointment.

Last year he improved upon that 2006 season, and this year, has seemingly improved even moreso, as his OPS is the highest it has been since that all-star year. Oddly enough, his strikeout rate is the highest it has ever been, and he is walking at a rate less than last year. The increase in his percentage of hits per at-bat—a “technical” way of saying batting average—has kept his OBP virtually idential to last year.

While he has only hit 9 home runs, he still hits the ball hard, evidenced by his league-leading 46 doubles and 8 triples. The Orioles must possess a doubles-mindset, as teammates Aubrey Huff and Nick Markakis find themselves #2 and #5 in the two-bagger category. Roberts is also fifth in the AL in stolen bases, a skill at which he has been adept even whilst others were digressing.

His defense is a different story. The plus/minus system has numbers for him from 2006 until now, and he appears to be in full-decline mode. In 2006, he was a +7 defender; last year, at 0, he was the average second baseman; and this year he is -6, so below average. While someone like Chase Utley puts up great offensive numbers and leads the league defensively, Roberts’ true value is likely going to be masked because many fantasy leagues do not count defense, and the vast majority of fans use offense as their sole evaluative factor anyway. Though his WPA is a nice 2.36, and he has been 1.58 wins above average from a context-neutral perspective, these are offensive measures; his defense would drag them down.

Lastly, curious to see how Roberts fared in comparison to fellow second basemen and the rest of the league, I looked at the skills assessment page on Bill James Online, and found the following:

Skill           MLB      2B
Running         95th     93rd
Discipline      88th     96th
Average         86th     87th
Power           36th     63rd
Fielding        N/A      59th

His baserunning, plate discipline, and ability to hit for average appear to be exemplary, but he is not a power hitting keystone cornerman in the general sense of the term, and his fielding has been bad enough to not even earn him a percentile in the all-players category. Roberts is a fine player, and he has helped the Orioles not be dreadful this year, but their desire to trade him should make a bit more sense now.

In an effort to counteract the usage of lefthanded relievers in the White Sox bullpen, Terry Francona opted to bat second baseman Dustin Pedroia cleanup this weekend. As odd or funny as it sounds—even prompting Ozzie Guillen to mention it is the first time he ever IBB’d a “jockey”—Pedroia in the cleanup spot is not an absolutely ridiculous idea. Having played just about every game for the Red Sox, last year’s Rookie of the Year winner is hitting .326/.373/.488, good for an .861 OPS. For the record, masher Carlos Pena’s OPS is .865.

Pedroia’s BABIP of .337 is essentially no different than last year’s .334, however his Isolated Power has seen a big jump. Last year’s .125 has jumped to a .161, thanks in large part to his 15 longballs.

Since June 12, he has been especially hot. In the 67 games during that span, just about half of his season, he has hit .384/.426/.598, for a 1.022 OPS. Additionally, 11 of those 15 home runs have come in that span, and Ozzie Guillen was quoted as saying he would rather face David Ortiz at this point than Pedroia. On the year, Pedroia’s 2.63 WPA leads all second baseman, though his 1.56 WPA/LI ranks sixth. This provides valid explanation that he has been clutch this year, as his performance has risen in crucial situations.

He has that look of an Eckstein-gritmaster, but don’t let it fool you… this guy can hit. He doesn’t like hitting cleanup and will likely find his way back to the top of the order when Kevin Youkilis is at 100%, but the way Dustin’s hitting, he isn’t too far off the slugging reputation that accompanies the #4 spot in a lineup.

On a sidenote, Pedroia’s potential right-side-of-the-infield partner, Lars Anderson, was interviewed this weekend at Fire Brand of the American League. To read the interview, click here.

CC Sabathia continued his National League dominance yesterday with a one-hit shutout against the Pittsburgh Pirates. The hit, which came in the fifth inning, was a little squibber back to the mound off the bat of recently acquired Andy LaRoche. Sabathia left the mound and went to make the seemingly routine play, but bobbled the ball and decided any further effort would be futile. The official scorer ruled the squibber a hit, and CC could no longer pitch a no-hitter.

In watching the replay several times, I firmly believe that if Sabathia fielded the ball cleanly he would have thrown LaRoche out. If Andy clearly would have beaten the throw regardless of the bobble, then I am definitely in favor of ruling the play a hit, but the bobble did seem to prevent Sabathia from completing the play.

Following the game, Brewers skipper Ned Yost looked livid as he lambasted the Pirates’ scorer for ruling the ball a hit. I thought it was such a peculiar response given that CC just pitched a one-hitter and the team had a great game. Then, a couple of hours later, the ESPN bottom line informed me that the Brewers plan on protesting the call to get it changed to an error. Their hope, I guess, is that the protest is upheld, the hit becomes an error, and Sabathia magically has a no-hitter.

While I mentioned earlier that I agree the play probably deserved an error as he would have thrown the baserunner out had he not bobbled the ball, I am almost as livid as Yost that they would even attempt this ridiculous move. You cannot just change the past without considering actions from that step forward. Say Sabathia does get charged with an error there… it does not guarantee that the rest of the game plays out exactly the way it did. Perhaps the next inning he gives up a double and a home run. Perhaps he pulls his groin and has to leave the game in the seventh inning. Perhaps the pressure of sustaining a no-hitter would mount and get to CC; or, adversely, perhaps the Pirates hitters would “try harder” in an attempt to avoid being no-hit.

The possibilities are endless, but the point remains that you cannot just magically change one event in a game after the fact and expect that everything else would remain the same. Those who saw that Ashton flick know what I’m talking about. This is very similar to when announcers allude to the fact that if a certain run scored earlier in the game, their team would lead by two instead of one going into the ninth; as if they think everything else would have remained the same. What if that run did score earlier, and led to a big rally? Or, what if the run did score, and then the opposition came out and scored four of their own.

All of these are hypotheticals, but they all point to the fact that you simply cannot change what you do not know. You cannot change the call from hit to an error and then award Sabathia a no-hitter because you have no idea exactly what would have happened from that point on had the ruling been different. Maybe it would have stayed the same, but since we do not know it would not be prudent to guess. I’m sure this protest will be denied, as I’m not the only one who will find it ridiculous, but is this really what the Brewers are concerned about at this point?

Or, maybe they are just taking the Michael Jordan approach right now… you know, where MJ used to get so bored that he would stir something up or purposely take a facial gesture the wrong way to motivate himself. Maybe the Brewers are so used to Sabathia dominating the NL already and are bored by it that they need to find a way to keep the themselves pumped up. I honestly have no idea, but I do know that attempting to get a hit from the fifth inning turned into an error in order to give someone a no-hitter, after the fact, even though nobody knows what would have happened from that point on, is utterly ridiculous.