While researching Rich Harden’s numbers with the Cubs so far, I came to the startling conclusion that I had no idea what he had done since the trade. I mean, I knew he was doing well, that he had not gotten hurt, and that he was helping the Cubs continue their dominance, but I couldn’t quote any of his numbers off the top of my head.

What bothered me a bit was that I knew all about CC Sabathia and his numbers in the senior circuit… and honestly, while Sabathia has performed better in his new league, it’s not like Harden is chopped liver, but he has gotten very little publicity.

One of the major reasons for this, as far as this writer can tell, is the W-L record. Sabathia has gone 8-0 in his ten Milwaukee starts and is averaging just a shade under 8 IP/GM while Harden is just 4-1, thanks to some solid performances without decisions. Remember, I am fully supporting Sabathia as performing better since the trade, but just find it odd that Harden, with his great numbers, is barely being mentioned. Here is a comparison:

CC Sabathia: 10 GS, 1.59 ERA, 2.51 FIP, 7.9 IP/GS, 4.93 K/BB
Rich Harden:  8 GS, 1.47 ERA, 2.74 FIP, 6.1 IP/GS, 5.00 K/BB

CC Sabathia: 85.6% LOB, 0.46 HR/9, 2.23 WPA/LI
Rich Harden: 98.3% LOB, 1.10 HR/9, 1.43 WPA/LI

Harden isn’t likely to sustain a strand rate that ridiculous, and I’m sure many Cubs fans hold their breath after each pitch, hoping he remains healthy, but he has been everything Piniella’s bunch has asked him to be and more. In a playoff series, who do you like better, Sabathia and Sheets or Zambrano and Harden?

The Phillies and Cubs are set to square off tonight at Wrigley Field with quite the interesting pitching matchup: Joe Blanton vs. Rich Harden. For those who recently came into contact with that memory-zap gizmo from Men In Black, both pitchers were members of the Oakland Athletics for the last few years. Both were also sold to the highest bidder, so to speak, back in July.

Harden, acquired to combat the CC Sabathia acquisition (no matter what bologna the Cubs front office may feed us) found himself as the #1 or #1A on the Cubs. Blanton, on the other hand, was never expected to turn the Phillies season around, but rather provide a somewhat decent alternative to Adam Eaton. Eaton, for those interested, has stunk it up in the minor leagues.

While Harden has exceeded expectations in Chicago, Blanton has essentially met those pointed towards him in Philadelphia. Here is a breakdown of their performances in Oakland and in their new uniforms:

Rich Harden, Oak: 13 GS, 0.58 HR/9, 2.97 K/BB, 1.14 WHIP, 2.78 FIP
Rich Harden, CHC:  8 GS, 1.10 HR/9, 5.00 K/BB, 0.86 WHIP, 2.74 FIP

Joe Blanton, Oak: 20 GS, 0.85 HR/9, 1.77 K/BB, 1.42 WHIP, 4.18 FIP
Joe Blanton, Phi:  7 GS, 1.42 HR/9, 1.80 K/BB, 1.42 WHIP, 5.06 FIP

Harden has been even better in cubbie blue, really limiting his baserunners and vastly improving his strikeout to walk ratio. He is striking out batters at a tremendous rate and preventing free passes more often than not. The only reason his FIP hasn’t shot down is due to the almost doubled home runs per nine innings number, which was likely to be expected in moving from Oakland to Wrigley.

Keeping with the theme of limiting baserunners, what has happened so far when Rich does allow someone to reach base? Well, glad you asked… the answer is pretty much nothing. See, Harden has a 98.3% strand rate in his time with the Cubs, which, when coupled with a 0.86 WHIP, is downright startling. Next to nobody is getting on base and those that do have had to wait for a teammate to “pick them up” with their glove for the next inning in the field.

Blanton’s FIP has been almost a full point worse on the Phillies, thanks in large part to a HR/9 increase from 0.85 to 1.42. Again, this should have been expected or at least surmised given that he was going from Oakland to a bandbox in Philly. His K/BB has remained virtually identical, however he is striking out almost two more batters per nine innings, which in turn means his walks have also risen. He has been much better at stranding baserunners as well, jumping from 65.2% in Oakland to 81.9% in Philadelphia. Because of this, his ERA is much lower in red pinstripes.

As a member of the Athletics, Harden produced a 1.93 WPA/LI in 13 starts, or around 0.15 wins per start. As a Cub, he has a 1.43 WPA/LI in 8 starts, or around 0.18 wins per start. Blanton has also seen improvement here. As an Athletic, he had a 0.23 WPA/LI in 20 starts, for an average of .011 per start. With the Phillies, it is 0.10 in 7 starts, good for a .014. There is no doubt that Rich Harden was clearly the better acquisition, but Blanton hasn’t been terrible, and that’s really all the Phillies are asking of him.

Carlos Beltran has had one extremely interesting career so far. In about nine years he has gone from prospect oozing with potential to productive rookie to possible hall of fame track performer to the most clutch playoff hitter ever to the most sought after free agent to the most overrated and derided player in New York to 40-HR power on a division champ. That has all led up to his current status, which, if you asked most Mets fans, would be slightly overrated.

I’m sure there will be some Mets supporters reading this that find it laughable that their compadres could find Beltran overrated, but I have heard enough fans and read enough blog posts and articles to know that, on some level, this opinion exists. Perhaps the sentiments stem from Beltran’s non-chalance on the field and at the plate. He does everything with such confidence that it looks as if he isn’t trying at all. Couple that with the blank stare often found on his face and you have the perfect makings of a guy who couldn’t possibly succeed as a vocal leader on the field, which seems to bug the Shea faithful.

My question is…. who cares!?!?

Seriously, who cares if he is or isn’t a team leader? For all we know, he just might be very vocal in the locker room. And as long as he gets to the flyball, who cares if he floats to it thanks to his excellent range and speed, or goes into full-fledged Eckstein-gritmaster mode? If he didn’t get to flyballs then maybe there would be a point to this non-chalance, but according to the +- system, there has not been a better centerfielder in the sport since 2006. In that span, 2006 to right now, Beltran is +57 plays better than an average centerfielder.

Yes, he struggled in his inaugural Metropolitans campaign, but that was three years ago and he has more than rebounded. In 2006, he hit 41 home runs and posted a .982 OPS. Last year, he hit 33 home runs and had an .878 OPS. Sure, it was much lower than 2006, but still very good, not just when compared to his 2005, but especially so when coupled with his NL best +24 plays in the outfield.

This year, he only has 19 home runs, so it is not very likely he will match the totals of the previous two seasons, but his win probability metrics are not too far off last year’s course. With a month remaining, he currently has a WPA/LI of 2.05 (17th in the NL) and a WPA of 2.26 (15th in the NL). Last year, he had a WPA/LI of 2.91 and a WPA of 2.03.

Over the last three calendar years, he has 9.23 context-neutral wins, which is good for 8th in the NL, right behind Chase Utley and Ryan Howard, and has been one of the, if not the, senior circuit’s best centerfielder. Generally speaking, top-ten offense and top-five defense equates to a very good player. Can someone please make the opposing case? I’m not being sarcastic at all, but rather curious to hear from those who do not like him.

Following last night’s absolutely insane game between the Phillies and Mets, Ryan Howard staked claim atop the NL leaderboard with his 35th home run of the season. With a little over a month to go in the season it seems perfectly reasonable, especially given his projection, to expect six or seven more dingers, which would put him over 40 for the third straight year. This year isn’t like 2006 or 2007 for Howard, however, as once you get past the home run and RBI totals, he isn’t having anywhere near a good or great season.

In 2006, his MVP campaign, he hit .313/.425/.659. Last year, .268/.392/.584. Sure, last year was a downgrade but he still posted an OPS around the 1.000 mark and showed the ability not just to hit for power but also to work a count and get on base. This year, that slash line has plummeted to .227/.317/.477, “good” for a .794 OPS.

No, batting average does not tell the whole story, especially in the case of power hitters—the value of their hits accounts for much more than singles—but this isn’t a situation like Adam Dunn’s, where a poor BA is masking a great OBP and SLG. All three components of Howard’s slash line are at very reduced rates. There are a few major reasons for this dropoff.

His BABIP has gone from .336 to .269 since last year. His BB-rate has dropped from 16.8% to 11.4%. And lastly, he strikes out all the time and has hit balls on the ground at an alarming rate this year (43.5% compared to 31.5% last year). You might think he has actually reduced his strikeout rate, as it went from 37% to 34%, but this isn’t exactly true. Because he has walked so much less this year, he has more official at-bats, and the punchouts cover a lesser percentage of these at-bats. Just looking at a straight up K/PA, the numbers come in around 30% for both this and last year.

Howard’s current OPS is .794. Players with marks better than his: Jason Kubel, Skip Schumaker, teammate Shane Victorino, and Stephen Drew.

His WPA/LI is 0.58. Players with marks better than his: Reed Johnson, teammate Jimmy Rollins, Ray Durham, and Ramon Santiago.

There is no way you really thought Howard would find himself alongside Jason Kubel and Ramon Santiago in any leaderboard this year. In the comments section of a recent post, someone mentioned that Howard might be having the worst 40-HR season in history. I decided to check if there have been any instances in history where a player hit 40+ home runs but failed to break the .800 OPS plateau.

The answer? No. Nobody has ever hit 40+ home runs with a sub-.800 OPS. Since offense wasn’t as prevalent in some periods back in the day I adjusted this to check for OPS+. Howard’s is barely over 100 right now, so I wanted to see if anyone has ever hit 40+ home runs with an OPS+ lower than 110. The only season I got belonged to Tony Batista, in 2000. Essentially, if Howard continues to mash dingers but fail to do anything else productive, this will be the worst 40-HR season in history, as I find it highly unlikely any other 40-HR club member ever found himself alongside the likes of Ramon Santiago or Jason Kubel in offensive categories.

Yesterday, we talked about the possibility that Albert Pujols is in the midst of his best season, but that his performance has gone largely unnoticed due to our general expectation that he will be, well, awesome. In the discussion thread, one of the topics mentioned involved how we, as fans, are desensitized to Pujols’ 1.100+ OPS primarily due to the absolutely ridiculous seasons of Barry Bonds from 2001-04. With that in mind, I’d like to remind those that have forgotten exactly what the much-maligned Bonds did in this four-year span.

First, just a general look at some of his numbers:

Year    GP     2B     HR     BB     K      BA/OBP/SLG      OPS
2001    153    32     73    177    93    .328/.515/.863   1.379
2002    143    31     46    198    47    .370/.582/.799   1.381
2003    130    22     45    148    58    .341/.529/.749   1.278
2004    147    27     45    232    41    .362/.609/.812   1.422

His slash line in this entire span was .349/.559/.809, which resulted in an OPS of 1.368, a good 300 points ahead of second-place Todd Helton. Each component of that slash line led the major leagues in this span as well. Bonds posted an OPS+ of 256 in these four years, way ahead of Albert Pujols’s 167.

We all know the walks are just mind-boggling, as are the intentional free passes, but Bonds did not strike out much in his actual qualifying at-bats either. It was literally frightening to face him from 2001-04 and teams counteracted this fright by just conceding an open base (or even letting him go to first when the base was occupied) and hoping to retire the subsequent batters.

His WPA/LI counts in these years: 13.04, 11.96, 8.92, 10.87. Yes, they led the league each year, by quite the large margin as well. The closest year came in 2003, when Albert Pujols still finished over 1.5 wins lesser than Bonds.

Looking at these years from an all-time perspective, his OPS numbers in each season ranks amongst the top eight of all time, with his 2004 season ranking first. The 2002 season ranks third, 2001 ranks fourth, and 2003 ranks eighth. Babe Ruth occupies spots #2, 5, and 6, with Ted Williams claiming seventh place. Now, you might be inclined to think that Ruth’s OPS+ would be much higher given that the offense “back in the day” wasn’t as good as it is now, but you would be wrong.

In actuality, Bonds’ OPS+ in 2002, 2004, and 2001 rank #1, 2, and 3 on the all-time list, with his 2003 season coming in at #9. In my estimation, this is hands down the greatest four-season stretch of offense in the history of the sport.

I’ll close by reiterating something RJ Anderson at Beyond the Box Score showed not too long ago. The WARP3 (Wins Above Replacement Player) of the average Hall of Fame hitter is 118.2. The WARP3 of Barry Bonds is 236.4. Barry Bonds makes the average Hall of Fame hitter look like a replacement player.

When the Braves traded Mark Teixeira to the Angels for, among other assets, Casey Kotchman, the analytic world of the baseball media went into a frenzy. Some analysts wondered how the Braves could get “so little” for one of the best bats and gloves in the game. Others argued that the very attractive contract of Casey Kotchman as well as his glove and potential evened the transaction out. And, I’m sure Steve Phillips dug out five at-bats of Teixeira’s playoff performance in college to say that he wouldn’t help the Angels due to poor post-season play.

Regardless, since joining the Angels, he-with-the-hard-name-to-spell has been on a tear. In 23 games out in LaLa of Anaheim-land, Mark has gone 32-83 with 7 home runs, 15 walks, and just 10 strikeouts. Put together, this results in a gaudy slash line of .386/.485/.675, an OPS of 1.160. His stretch has been so good that his seasonal OPS has actually risen from .902 to .941 in just 23 games.

On the flipside, Kotchman has not been performing too well on the offensive, going just 11-70 in his first 20 games. His .157/.259/.214 slash line as a Brave, coupled with the ridiculous numbers Teix has been putting up will cause some to look solely at the win-now aspect of this trade. This isn’t necessarily “wrong” as the ultimate goal in the eyes of many is to win a world series. If Teixeira can help the Angels win the world series then it will be quite hard to convince a fan of theirs that the trade didn’t work out, even if they are unable to resign him.

If we know anything about hot or cold streaks, we know that they have very little predictive ability. For all we know, these numbers could switch in the month of September, Kotchman will become a national celebrity, and Frank Wren will have a Schuerholz moment. Overall, though, this seems to be an example of the Angels understanding this could be their year, putting some eggs in the Teix basket, and praying it pays dividends.

They didn’t need Teixeira to make the playoffs, and with a 17-game lead in the division, they could probably rest him all of September to keep his legs fresh for the… oh, right, this is baseball, nevermind. But, we all know how this trade will really be judged. Since they didn’t need him to make the playoffs, it means they got him to aid them in the playoffs… which in turn means he better perform well in the playoffs or people will have fits.

One of my biggest baseball pet peeves is when current pitching barometers (W-L and ERA) are, on their own, used to make extreme analytical claims. I have no problem if ERA is used as one of many metrics in an analysis, or if W-L is somehow adjusted to take several outside factors into account, but on their own, they do not really tell us much. With that in mind, let’s play a little game. Below are some numbers from 2007 and some from 2008, from the same pitcher:

Year    K/9     BB/9     K/BB      WHIP
2007    8.70    1.79     4.85      1.14
2008    8.74    1.81     4.83      1.23

They look pretty identical, right? Yes, the WHIP is slightly higher, but still a very good 1.23. Additionally, the strikeout and walk rates are not only fantastic, but essentially the same. This pitcher’s record last year was 20-7, and he posted a 3.27 ERA. This year, he is 11-9 with a 4.34 ERA. Using just those barometers, he is doing much worse this year. Couple it with the strikeout, walk, and baserunner numbers above, and you should see that the W-L and ERA may be a little fishy in their evaluation.

If you haven’t already guessed, I’m talking about Adam Eaton Josh Beckett of the Red Sox.

Now, there are other numbers we need to consider, since the barometers and more advanced numbers I posted do not show everything, but my overall point is that Beckett has not been nearly as bad as his W-L and ERA would make many Red Sox fans think. His numbers are worse this year, but not by much. Why are they worse?

Well, last year he surrendered 0.76 HR/9, had a .316 BABIP, and stranded 75.2% of the runners that reached base. This year, he has a 1.02 HR/9, a .330 BABIP, and a 69.4% strand rate. Put together, he has allowed more baserunners, has been worse at preventing them from scoring, and has allowed more balls to leave the park. Since his BB and K numbers are the same, the rise in HR/9 has resulted in an FIP increase from 3.08 to 3.32. So, yes, he has been worse this year than last, but a lot of it has to do with the higher BABIP. On top of that, a 3.32 FIP is rather great, and signals that his controllable skills are still darn good.

Interesting to note, his xFIP, which normalizes the home run component of FIP, says he is actually pitching better this year. Last year, his xFIP was 3.56, while it comes in at 3.35 this year. As his numbers stand right now, this would be the first year of Beckett’s career in which he surrendered more hits than innings pitched, largely due to the increase in BABIP. His velocity and movement look pretty similar this and last year as well, meaning some problems could stem from either poor location, or quite simply, bad luck.

His WPA and WPA/LI do not appear to be on pace to match last year’s numbers, but his controllable skills and performance have not been bad to the point that Sox fans should question if he has lost something. This could just be something similar to Jake Peavy’s 2006 season.

Look, we all know Albert Pujols is an absolutely tremendous baseball player. He is arguably the best player in baseball right now (Yuniesky Betancourt would give him a run), is a clear-cut hall of famer, and there are very few sane pitchers who actually look forward to facing him. A couple of months ago I wrote that he wasn’t being fairly treated in terms of both how good he is and how much coverage finds itself in his direction, because of this inherent comfort factor. Since we know he is fantastic, his performance has become more expected than admired, which I cannot stand. An OPS over 1.000 should “get people going” regardless of whether or not the player in question has reached that mark in just about every season of his career.

This year, even less press seems to consist of Albert-oriented focus, and he might actually be having the best season of his career. He rarely misses games, but being hurt for a bit this year will cause some of his raw totals to fall short of years past; his rates, however, are just as good if not better. In 118 games, Pujols is hitting .359/.467/.639, for a 1.106 OPS. Let that slash line sink in.

The only other time he came close to this was in 2003, when he hit .359/.439/.667, for an identical 1.106 OPS. The difference between the two years comes in the form of walks. This year, Albert has a 17% walk-rate, which is higher than any other season of his career. Coupled with a very low strikeout rate, Pujols has a BB/K of 1.95, meaning that he walks about twice for each strikeout. In terms of raw figures, that translates to 44 strikeouts and 86 walks. In fact, Pujols is the only player in baseball with a 17% or higher walk-rate that has a strikeout rate of under 20%.

Since his rookie season he has never fanned more than walked, and his BB/K has ranged from 1.49-1.95 since 2004. His patience is an enormous factor of his success that does not get mentioned much. Another of these factors is his fielding. You might not think it at first glance, but Pujols has been the best defensive first baseman in baseball at least since 2005. From 2005 until right now, Albert has been +87 plays better than an average first-sacker: +15 right now, MLB best +37 in 2007, MLB best +25 in 2006, and +10 in 2005.

To put that in perspective, not only is he probably the best overall hitter in baseball right now, he is also the best fielder at his position, which truly does elevate his value, regardless of how fielding metrics are perceived in the general public. I’ll end this with just some simple rankings:

BB/K: 1.95, 1st
BA: .359, t-1st
OBP: .467, 1st
SLG: .639, 1st
OPS: 1.106, 1st
WPA/LI: 5.19, 1st
REW: 5.73, 1st

Yeah, he’s pretty good, and could be in the midst of his best season to date.

Brian Bannister made quite the saber splash this off-season when he professed his love of sabermetrics and advanced statistical analysis to unearth exactly what would make him successful. One of his goals involved staying ahead of the hitters, which would in turn reduce his BABIP against. For the most part, this worked in 2007, as he kept hitters at bay with a .266 BABIP. This well below the average mark helped his 3.87 ERA vastly outdo his 4.40 FIP.

In addition to balls put in play against him failing more often than most others to result in hits, his HR/FB was a very low 6.8%. If the average in this category is around 11-12%, then not only was he successful in preventing hits, but he didn’t give up much in the home run department either. So why the 4.40 FIP? Well, he didn’t strike anyone out and his BB/9 was not ridiculously low relative to the strikeout total. All told, his K/BB was a meager 1.75 last year.

This year, things have seemingly changed. His 5.96 ERA is over two full runs worse, his HR/FB has just about doubled to 12%, and 11 of his 25 starts have resulted in five or more earned runs crossing the plate. His latest start featured ten runs in one inning. Though he has definitely had some great games this year, when 44% of your starts involve 5+ earned runs, then either your controllable skills have faltered or you are very unlucky… or both.

If his controllable skills had truly imploded, then his FIP likely wouldn’t be just a half-run higher than last year. Despite his 5.96 ERA, his FIP is a run lower at 4.94. His HR/9 has jumped from 0.82 to 1.41, but his K/BB has risen from 1.75 to 1.94. Additionally, according to the xFIP statistic kept at The Hardball Times—which normalizes the home run component of FIP—Bannister has actually been pitching better this year.

Last year, when his ERA was 3.87 and FIP was 4.40, his xFIP was 5.14. This year, at 5.96 and 4.94, respectively, his xFIP comes in at 4.79. While he outdid his xFIP in both cases last year in the positive direction, both his ERA and FIP have done the opposite this year. It’s hard to convince people that someone with numbers seemingly as poor as his—a -2.02 WPA, -2.36 REW, and -1.39 WPA/LI—is actually performing a bit better than a year in which his surface numbers looked pretty solid, but this does seem to be the case.

I’m sure Banny the Math Whiz already knows this, but for any Royals fan upset with his performance, it isn’t nearly as bad as it looks.

While I firmly believe the comments made by Jimmy Rollins towards Philadelphia fans was a non-story, and, well, true, the fact is that he is having a very poor followup to his 2007 MVP campaign. Granted, some will argue that he should not have won the award in the first place, but he did, and his performance with the bat this year has been anything but award-worthy. Now, in the field, he has been a +8 shortstop this year to go along with his +7 last year and +12 in 2006. The issue, however, is that the perceived effectiveness of a player is generally born out of his offensive performance and production in timely situations.

In other words, WPA is a pretty good indicator of the MVP award, because voters aren’t going to stop and think about what would have happened if every plate appearance just counted as one (WPA/LI). They look at overall numbers, the clutchiness, and more like-factors. With that in mind, and with Rollins’ offensive struggles this year, I took a look at the MVP winners over the last twenty years (1988-2007), along with their WPAs in both the award year and the next year. The ultimate goal being to see if anyone else has had such a drastic perceived drop in effectiveness.

  Year          NAME             WPA1   WPA2   WPA-Drop
  1988      Kirk Gibson          5.00    0.87    -4.13
  1989      Kevin Mitchell       6.91    2.86    -4.05
  1990      Barry Bonds          5.63    7.99     2.36
  1991      Terry Pendleton      3.57    4.81     1.24
  1992      Barry Bonds          5.92    7.79     1.87
  1993      Barry Bonds          7.79    4.82    -2.97
  1994      Jeff Bagwell         5.79    4.70    -1.09
  1995      Barry Larkin         3.96    3.54    -0.42
  1996      Ken Caminiti         6.10    4.38    -1.72
  1997      Larry Walker         6.65    2.63    -4.02
  1998      Sammy Sosa           6.09    4.11    -1.98
  1999      Chipper Jones        6.36    2.16    -4.20
  2000      Jeff Kent            4.85    1.21    -3.64
  2001      Barry Bonds         11.63   10.57    -1.06
  2002      Barry Bonds         10.57    8.36    -2.21
  2003      Barry Bonds          8.36   12.63     4.27
  2004      Barry Bonds         12.63    0.26   -12.37
  2005      Albert Pujols        4.15    9.57     5.42
  2006      Ryan Howard          8.10    3.11    -4.99
  2007      Jimmy Rollins        2.69    0.33    -2.36

Now, Gibson in 1989 and Bonds in 2005 were both injured and missed significant time, so their second year WPA numbers should be disregarded. Other than that, though, Rollins is not alone in his perceived dropoff. In fact, his dropoff from last year to right now is actually less than some others on this list. What also needs to be taken into account is how his WPA in the MVP year is the lowest of anyone in the last twenty years—so there is much less to drop off from—but he has not been the worst in terms of WPA differential between the award year and the year after. His .747 OPS is disappointing, but he has been solid in the field, and despite the criticism pointed towards him with the hustle or lack of puncuality, the situation could be much worse.