Roy Halladay didn’t have his best stuff against the Padres on Saturday, even walking three consecutive batters for the first time in his career. He still managed to allow just two runs over seven innings and recorded five strikeouts in the process, which is a pretty good result for lacking his best stuff.

His strikeout total was respectable, but I couldn’t help but think that it was inflated. Two of those strikeouts came against Cory Luebke, his pitching counterpart. Outs against opposing pitchers have to be recorded somehow, but his overall line would have been less impressive with those punchouts removed. It doesn’t matter in the context of that specific game, but in evaluating true talent strikeout ability, it makes some sense to remove opposing pitchers from the equation.

It’s known and established that the major difference between both leagues is the designated hitter. Pitchers switching from the American League to the National League typically see their strikeout and walk rates improve. They get to replace David Ortiz with, well, Cory Luebke. The inverse is also true of National League pitchers making the switch to the American League.

Isn’t it possible that certain pitchers who notoriously struggled upon switching from the NL to AL did so because their strikeout rates were heavily reliant on taking advantage of fellow pitchers? This isn’t to say that striking out opposing pitchers is meaningless, but rather that it falls into a different evaluative bucket as something we may need to normalize in order to get a more accurate gauge of a true talent level.

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Dave Cameron previously laid out the methodology behind the rankings here. Remember that the grading scale for each category is 20-80, with 50 representing league average.

2012 Organizational Rankings

#30 – Baltimore
#29 – Houston
#28 – Oakland
#27 – Pittsburgh
#26 – San Diego
#25 – Minnesota
#24 – Chicago AL
#23 – Seattle
#22 – Kansas City
#21 – Cleveland
#20 – New York NL
#19 – Los Angeles NL
#18 – Colorado
#17 — Miami
#16 — Diamondbacks
#15 — Cincinnati
#14 — Chicago NL
#13 — Milwaukee
#12 — San Francisco
#11 — Washington
#10 — Tampa Bay
#9 – Toronto
#8 – Atlanta
#7 – Detroit
#6 – St. Louis

Philadelphia’s 2011 Ranking: #3

2012 Outlook: 63 (T-4th)
Much like they were in 2011, the 2012 Phillies are a contender built on pitching. With three of the top fifteen starting pitchers in the sport in their starting rotation, arguably the second-best closer in the game, and a combination of solid back-end starters and versatile non-closers, the pitching staff is one of baseball’s best.

While the dynamic duo of Roy Halladay and Cliff Lee is getting to the age of declining skills, it’s hard to imagine either being less than an elite 6.5-WAR pitcher this season. Assuming Cole Hamels continues to develop now that he has a firmer grasp on how and when to use his cutter, the Phillies may well get more out of three starters than most rotations get out of a full quintet.

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The Cleveland Indians and Asdrubal Cabrera came to terms on a two-year contract extension on Sunday that will pay the shortstop $16.5 million over the 2013-14 seasons. The deal buys out his final year of arbitration eligibility as well as his first free agent year.

Given the price, the minimal commitment, and the ability for Cabrera to test the market while still a relatively young player at a premium position, the deal lacks risk for both sides. If Cabrera’s bat continues to develop, or settles in the vicinity of last year’s production, the Indians have themselves an upper echelon shortstop on a very affordable deal. If he regresses a bit offensively and continues to struggle in the field, the deal will likely break even. That’s essentially the definition of a low-risk deal.

No matter the specific dollar-to-WAR calculation used — be it the primitive computation or one with more advanced inputs — Cabrera needs to produce somewhere around 4 WAR over 2013-14 to make the deal worthwhile. Even conservative estimates peg him surpassing that total.

But while this looks like a good deal for both sides, there are two related topics worth exploring: his poor defense with a groundball-heavy starting staff, and his trade value after last season — should the Indians have sold high on him?

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Dave Cameron laid out the methodology behind the rankings last Friday. Remember that the grading scale for each category is 20-80, with 50 representing league average.

2012 Organizational Rankings

#30 – Baltimore
#29 – Houston
#28 – Oakland
#27 – Pittsburgh
#26 – San Diego
#25 – Minnesota
#24 – Chicago White Sox
#23 – Seattle
#22 – Kansas City

Cleveland’s 2011 Ranking: #26

2012 Outlook: 47 (18th)
Once upon a time, in the mid-2000s, the Indians were brimming with young talent and very valuable major league pieces in C.C. Sabathia, Cliff Lee, Victor Martinez, Grady Sizemore and Travis Hafner. They peaked in 2007, with a 96-66 record, and an AL Central crown. Since then, a combination of untimely injuries, poor drafting, and a lack of acquired talent — especially through trading Sabathia and Lee — has kept the Indians below the .500 mark.

While the Indians may win more than 81 games in 2012, the oddly constructed roster is unlikely to contend for a playoff berth. Scoring a 47 on the 20-80 scale is appropriate, as they are a middle of the pack team that would need a lot to break right to challenge for one of the Wild Card spots. Crazier things have happened, but when Shelley Duncan projects to log 400+ PAs for your team, the odds aren’t ever in your favor.

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The Royals were wise to lock up Alcides Escobar for the foreseeable future. Talented, young shortstops don’t grow on trees and Escobar will help the team through his own performance, or as a trade chip given his age and the team-friendly nature of the contract.

As Carson Cistulli analyzed on Friday, the Royals will pay the 25-year old shortstop $10.5 million over the next four years. The deal buys out his final year before arbitration eligibility and all three of his eligible years. He is set to make $1 million in 2012 and then $3 million per season from 2013-15. The contract also includes two club options for 2016-17 at a grand total of $11.75 million.

Realistically, the options are where the Royals potentially got a steal. If Escobar continues to develop and actually improves at the plate, he probably would have made between $9-$12 million through arbitration anyway. However, he would then be in line for a larger payday, whether it came through free agency or a new deal negotiated beforehand. If everything works out according to the Royals plan, Escobar will easily merit the $11.75 million owed in 2016-17, which is worth the reasonable risk that he doesn’t even live up to the $10 million through the 2015 season.

But speculating that far down the road is difficult, especially in the case of an all-glove/no-bat player like Escobar. While defense isn’t necessarily one of those performance attributes that erodes early, it would certainly help his value if Escobar could improve at the plate. Should the Royals expect such an improvement?

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The Dodgers ranked 30th in our positional power rankings for catchers last week in a close race with the Pirates. Matt Treanor, the backup catcher, doesn’t have anything left and it’s unclear what Tim Federowicz will provide or how often he will even play. The de facto starter, A.J. Ellis, is better suited for backup duty yet will likely amass 450+ PAs. Put together, it’s an ugly situation behind the plate.

In response to that ranking, through comments, e-mails, and on Twitter, it became clear that Dodgers fans thought that Ellis was being undervalued. After all, his ZIPS projected on-base percentage of .356 was higher than any other catcher in the bottom half of the positional rankings.

The problem is that, while Ellis has always boasted serious on-base skills, his slugging inability is a substantial detriment to his overall value.

Over 206 major league PAs, Ellis has a .262/.360/.330 line, with a slugging percentage as uninspiring as his on-base percentage is impressive. It isn’t just a matter of getting used to big league pitching either, as his career minor league slugging mark is just .380, with the last three years being spent in the notorious Albuquerque Isotopes launching pad.

Turning 31 years old this year, it sure seems unlikely that his development will take a major step forward, and that was one of the main factors in ranking the Dodgers backstops last for the upcoming season. But, historically, how have players in similar situations fared?

Is Ellis just a late bloomer primed to start slugging after the typical peak years?

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The Nationals have been trying to solve their center field situation for quite some time, having their trade efforts rebuked and their name linked to mediocre stopgap solutions.

Last season, they were in the mix for both Michael Bourn and B.J. Upton but watched as division rival Atlanta acquired the former, while the latter stayed in Tampa and helped the Rays make the playoffs on the season’s final day. This offseason, the Nats have reportedly expressed interest in Gerardo Parra as a long-term solution, have considered Jason Bourgeois as a temporary stopgap, and have toyed with the idea of moving Jayson Werth over to make room for Bryce Harper.

In the meantime, they signed Mike Cameron and Rick Ankiel to minor league deals and are still considering Roger Bernadina for an extended look. Cameron retired, which leaves the in-house options at Bernadina or Ankiel if they want to keep Werth in right field. The only realistic external option at this point is Bourgeois, and when he represents the best anything, we’re discussing a problem without a clear solution.

If Bryce Harper is going to make the major league team, moving Werth to center field is the Nationals best bet right now. If not, the talent they have internally is just as good as the realistic external options. They shouldn’t make a deal if the upgrade is merely incremental, as that represents a short-term patch for a problem they need to solve long-term.

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For an explanation of this series, go ahead and read the introduction. All the posts in the series can be found here.

We’re going to kick off the series with a look at how teams fare behind the plate. The catcher position is one of the most important on a team, and it’s unfortunately one of the toughest to evaluate given our limitations in measuring defensive value. Ranking teams at the position proved interesting since some of the best overall players who happen to catch are not going to derive their entire value from behind the plate. Mike Napoli might tally 5 WAR this season, but how much of that comes from time spent DH’ing or at first base? Teams also get boosts from having solid backups, as the goal here isn’t to rank the 30 starters, but to determine how much overall value is expected out of the position itself.

30. Los Angeles Dodgers
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Gerardo Parra put together a solid, under the radar season over 141 games in 2011, posting a .340 wOBA and +10 UZR en route to three wins above replacement. He won a Gold Glove flanking Chris Young and Justin Upton and showed some legitimate signs of offensive improvement at just 24 years old.

The Diamondbacks, unsure whether or not the improvements were sustainable, opted to sign Jason Kubel this offseason for at least two years and $16 million. Kubel boasts the opposite set of skills as a decent hitter with a far worse glove. The team has yet to make it known if these two outfielders will platoon, but the more likely scenario has Kubel starting with Parra relegated to fourth outfielder status. Other teams have predictably been inquiring on Parra’s availability as he is now a cheap 25-year old starting outfielder without a guaranteed starting role.

In most cases it makes sense for the team with the supposed logjam to trade the displaced player. He can usually net a decent return and is often worth more to a new employer than as a sub to his current team. In this case, however, the Diamondbacks would be better served by keeping Parra in Arizona. The confluence of his age, abilities and contract status will afford the team another year or two to gauge his ability to start on a full-time basis without really sacrificing anything.

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Pitchers and catchers began to report to camps last week, signifying that baseball is close to resuming. Two of the pitchers that reported to camp — Matt Garza and Shaun Marcum — are currently seeking contract extensions from their respective teams. Garza put together the best year of his career in his first season with the Cubs, while Marcum helped lead the Brewers back to the playoffs in his first season with the team.

Despite their opposite approaches — Garza with the mid-90s heat and Marcum with the low-80s changeup — this pair of NL Central pitchers has performed similarly over the last two seasons. But while their numbers are almost identical since 2010 and they aren’t too far apart in age, the Cubs and Brewers should approach extension discussions differently.

Garza represents far less of a risk than Marcum, in both performance and health, and is a no-brainer extension candidate. The Brewers, on the other hand, should really wait it out with Marcum to confirm he’s healthy before even considering an extension. And even at that point it’s unclear if they have enough money to extend him and focus most of their efforts and resources on ensuring Zack Greinke stays.

The Brewers may actually be better suited to let Marcum walk into a crowded free agent class than to lock him up right now.

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