Yesterday I discussed how Pat Burrell’s apparent all star snub was the most egregious in the senior circuit. Also mentioned was how the construction of these rosters never was nor never will be perfect, due in large part now to the starters being voted on by fans and the managerial staff possessing the pre-requisite rule requiring each team at least one representative. Undeserving players will make it and quite deserving ones will not. Such is life… or the all star game.

Today we will take a position by position look at the American League roster and, using WPA/LI, see how the fans, players and managers did. Did anyone named to the team not deserve to be there? Any deserving players left off? Of teams with just one representative, was the right player chosen? To get this party started, here are the players voted in and their WPA/LI rank at their position. Also be sure to note that the ranks are amongst only those who qualify for a leaderboard.

C: Joe Mauer (1)
1B: Kevin Youkilis (2)
2B: Dustin Pedroia (3)
SS: Derek Jeter (2)
3B: Alex Rodriguez (1)
OF: Josh Hamilton (2)
OF: Manny Ramirez (5)
OF: Ichiro Suzuki (out of top ten)
DH: Milton Bradley* (1)

*Bradley is replacing David Ortiz and actually leads all AL “outfielders” in context-neutral wins.

Looking at those voted in, the only odd pick (out of say the top three at that position) is Ichiro, but come on, he’s Ichiro. I honestly have no problem with fans wanting him in the game as a starter. Perhaps J.D. Drew should be there but if another Yankees or Red Sox player found himself in the starting lineup I would write a completely empty threat conveying my likely short-lived anger.

Here are the reserve position players and their WPA/LI rank at that position, looking at all players with at least 220 PA:

C: Dioner Navarro (2), Jason Varitek (out of top ten)
1B: Justin Morneau (3)
2B: Ian Kinsler (1)
SS: Michael Young (1), and the only AL SS with positive WPA/LI
3B: Carlos Guillen (2), Joe Crede (out of top ten)
OF: J.D. Drew (3)
OF: Grady Sizemore (4)
OF: Carlos Quentin (6)

Looking at the reserves we see the actual context-neutral leaders at 2B and SS, as well as the second place C and 3B. Of outfielders, including Bradley, the top six were chosen. Realistically, the only odd choices of these reserves, when discussing WPA/LI, are Varitek and Crede. Here are the pitchers and their ranks as either a starter or reliever:

SP: Cliff Lee (1)
SP: Roy Halladay (2)
SP: Justin Duchsherer (3)
SP: Ervin Santana (5)
SP: Joe Saunders (7)
SP: Scott Kazmir (12), Kaz doesn’t qualify but his 1.32 WPA/LI would fall 12th
RP: Joakim Soria (1)
RP: Mariano Rivera (2)
RP: Joe Nathan (3)
RP: Francisco Rodriguez (4)
RP: Jonathan Papelbon (5)
RP: George Sherrill (way out of top ten)

The relievers appear to be spot on with the exception of Sherrill, who was clearly chosen due to the Orioles needing a representative and his 27 saves ranking second in the league. The starting pitchers appear to be properly assembled as well, as Shaun Marcum, who ranks sixth, is injured and would not be able to participate anyways. Still, that leaves the fourth place context-neutral pitcher out of the mix in John Danks of the first place Chicago White Sox. Going position by position again, here are some notables that were left out, either ranking higher than those voted in/chosen or coming very close:

C: Nobody
1B: Jason Giambi (1)
2B: Brian Roberts (2)
SS: Nobody. They all stink. Honestly, look for yourself.
3B: Evan Longoria (4)
OF: Jermaine Dye (7), Nick Markakis (8)
SP: John Danks (4)

The most compelling cases to me are those of Roberts, Markakis, and Danks: the Orioles only have one representative and instead of the second best (WPA/LI speaking here) player manning the keystone corner it ended up being a closer whose results clearly benefit from the importance of the situations in which they were accrued. Since the top six outfielders were chosen, Markakis is the odd man out, but I just don’t see why Sherrill had to be their lone player. I won’t lose any sleep over Longoria either because even if he doesn’t get voted in on the final ballot, he will definitely be a multiple all star over the course of his career.

With this in mind, it seems the AL actually did a pretty good job assembling their roster. Some reserves should be starting and vice-versa, but relative to WPA/LI, remove Varitek and Sherrill and this team doesn’t exhibit many egregious errors in my eyes.

Following the hour-long roster announcements yesterday all but two players–who will have to wait for the final vote–learned of their plans to venture to New York for the festivities. The rosters, which can be found here, comprise 32 of the best players in each league relative to the requirement that each team in that league be represented. Additionally, the starters are chosen by the fans and, quite simply, are not too often fully indicative of those deserving to start.

With that in mind it is almost impossible for a perfect 32-man squad to be assembled. Once past the fan voting a manager then has to make sure each team is represented, which usually means someone more deserving at that position will be left out; occasionally this more deserving player will be doubly left out after failing to secure a starting spot.

I used to get upset and take it personally when players of interest were snubbed, but as I began to mount the years on it has become too difficult to truly feel bad for people who make fifty times (sadly, I don’t even know if that’s an exaggeration anymore) what my entire family makes in a given year. Still, there are certain players sure to be snubbed because it is human nature to disagree with what has been established. Even if the all star roster choosing was automated by some specified criteria there would be hordes of fans and analysts arguing that some players had “intangibles” or “were better than the numbers.” And even if we somehow tweaked that system to take these intangibles and gritty play factors into account, some would argue how those aspects could be properly quantified.

Essentially, there is no way to pick a right all-star team other than to either brainwash a multitude of fans, take away fan voting, or take away the all-teams-represented criteria. None of these three are going to happen so it just is not worth getting upset over. Even thus, I decided to spend today looking at both leagues and trying to find the one to three most egregious snubs. For now we will look at the NL while the AL will post later tonight.

Looking at offensive WPA, 7 of the top 10 made the team, with the other three coming in the forms of Pat Burrell (2nd), Jason Bay (4th), and Carlos Lee (10th). Now, Burrell and Lee are also included on that final ballot, but for my money David Wright is going to win that in a landslide. Looking at offensive WPA/LI, Burrell ranks 4th and did not make the team, Bay ranks 8th, and the aforementioned Wright ranks 9th. When probing the WPA/LI of NL pitchers we find that Cole Hamels, at 2.42, ranks 2nd in the entire league to just Dan Haren. Tim Hudson ranks 5th and Johan Santana ranks 6th; neither of them made the squad either.

It is too tough to gauge pitchers because if I were a manager my staff would house a few starters and then a bunch of really reliable relievers. With that in mind I will say I think Hamels is more deserving than Ryan Dempster, especially given how many players the Cubs have in the game, but I’m not going to lose hypothetical sleep over his exclusion. After all, Dempster has been surprisingly good and my friends used to joke it should be called the All-Surprise Game; based on how often players surprisingly good for just one half of a season will make the team.

Some could argue Kyle Lohse is very deserving but I’ll then play devil’s advocate and ask which starting pitcher would you remove for him? He may be posting very good numbers but I’d personally feel much more comfortable with Tim Lincecum, Edinson Volquez, Carlos Zambrano, Ben Sheets, both Diamondbacks; and then a guy like Aaron Cook is all too similar, plus his manager is the skipper of the whole team. Then again, I’ve also seen arguments against Lohse saying that he shouldn’t make it just because of his W-L. I agree, except he wouldn’t be making the team based solely on that. He has a 3.61 ERA, 3.73 FIP, 2.00 K/BB, and 72% strand rate; he has had a very good first half, but there really just is no room for him.

This leaves us realistically with Pat Burrell and Jason Bay. Between these two it’s an easy choice for the NL’s most egregious snub. Burrell ranks 2nd in WPA in the entire sport and 4th in WPA/LI in the NL, but these are overall ranks. Amongst outfielders, none in the NL can stake claim as having been better in the first half than Burrell. When discussing Bay, it’s easier to understand why he was left off: because Nate McLouth made the team. Bay and Xavier Nady were arguably more deserving than McLouth, but Nasty Nate has had a surprising first half. Therefore, Alfonso Soriano should rest during the festivities in order to begin a domino effect of Ryan Braun or Matt Holliday starting and Burrell claiming one of their bench spots.

A conundrum is loosely defined as anything that puzzles… so it makes perfect sense to use the term when describing the anomaly present in the ERA and FIPs of both Carlos Zambrano and Jeremy Bonderman. We’ve written about pitchers either outperforming their FIP or failing to live up to it plenty of times here, but, in probing the last three calendar years feature recently instituted on the leaders page, it appears that things tend to even out a bit. Except, of course, with regards to Zambrano and Bonderman.

Sixty starting pitchers qualified for inclusion over the last three calendar years and they produced the following averages:

ERA-FIP: 0.12
BABIP: .303
LOB: 71.8%
K/BB: 2.48
HR/9: 0.98

One standard deviation of the ERA-FIP is 0.28, meaning we can expect about 2/3 of the data to fall within the -0.16 to 0.40 range; additionally, 95% of the data can be expected to fall within the -0.44 to 0.68 range. Of the group of sixty pitchers, just two fell beyond the 95% confidence interval: Carlos Zambrano at -0.53 and Jeremy Bonderman at 0.83.

Now, one potential reason that someone like Zambrano consistently posts better ERAs than his FIP would suggest could deal with his BABIP: the average BABIP of this group in this span is .303 and Zambrano comes in at .273, a full thirty points lower. On the other end of the spectrum, Bonderman comes in at .325, over twenty points higher. In fact, when looking at the eighteen pitchers who fell beyond one standard deviation of the ERA-FIP mean, the nine higher than 0.40 ranged from .297-.332 in BABIP while those below -0.16 ranged between .269-.309.

I actually discovered whilst writing this post that a question regarding Zambrano outperforming his FIP was posed in the Inside the Book mailbag, to which MGL mentioned the possibility of him posting a lower than average BABIP after concluding that it is definitely possible for certain pitchers to post certain types of BABIPs. This is definitely the case. As MGL also noted in the mailbag, “FIP is a very good at eliminating the noise in BABIP, which allows us to get a better estimate of a pitcher’s run prevention skill, in the short run. In the long run, ERA, RA or ERC is MUCH better because it captures the differences in BABIP skill among pitchers, as well as the other things I mentioned above that contribute to a pitcher’s run prevention skill but are not addressed at all in FIP (like WP rate).”

So, one reason these two guys are constantly posting ERAs much better or worse than their FIP would suggest could be that they have posted above or below average BABIPs with enough regularity to show they have some type of control over it; in that regard, their ERA would be a better indicator of run prevention. Then again, they might not have control over their BABIP and this could all even out, but it would seem that this is a very likely cause at this juncture.

Back on April 22, I wrote a post titled “Nasty Nate McLouth“, dissecting the hot start of the Pirates outfielder. He had a ridiculously high BABIP at the time which led to quite the inflated slash line. Additionally, while sustaining a very similar walk rate he had drastically reduced his strikeout percentage. Here are some of his numbers at the time of the first post and his overall numbers as we speak:

Apr 22: .403 BABIP, .375/.444/.639, 1.082 OPS, 12.5 K%
Today: .288 BABIP, .281/.361/.523, .885 OPS, 13.8 K%

As expected, his BABIP dropped significantly, and his slash line fell as a result. His strikeout rate has increased a bit but the 13.8% is still much lower than the 23.4% of last year. Speaking of the 2007 season, McLouth now has virtually the same amount of at-bats this year as last. Here are his numbers from the last two years:

2007: 85-329, 48 1B, 21 2B, 3 3B, 13 HR, 39 BB, 77 K, .258/.351/.489
2008: 92-327, 46 1B, 28 2B, 3 3B, 15 HR, 34 BB, 45 K, .281/.362/.523

Things appear very similar with the exception of the strikeouts and added power; McLouth’s increase in doubles and home runs has led to not only the higher batting average but the higher slugging percentage as well. His ISO in 2007 was .201 compared to the .242 so far this year. Unfortunately, or fortunately if you are a Pirates fan, he actually gets lost in the shuffle a bit because the entire Bucs outfield is producing at a high level.

Amongst NL outfielders, McLouth ranks 8th in WPA (1.54) and 7th in WPA/LI (1.56). Jason Bay and Xavier Nady rank ahead of him in both areas. McLouth’s 22.58 BRAA and 2.24 REW rank third amongst NL outfielders, though, higher than both of his teammates. He has cooled off quite a bit since riding the coattails of a 19-game hitting streak early in the season but he is still producing at a high level; or at least much higher than we might have expected entering the season. I also would not be surprised if he has earned his first All-Star berth given his solid numbers and the fact that surprising players make good stories.

In case you have not yet heard, the Phillies optioned struggling starter Brett Myers to Triple-A Lehigh Valley yesterday. The move followed a very disappointing more-than-start to this season in which expectations were quite high. In light of this development I decided to take off my unbiased analyst cap and discuss this from my perspective as a Phillies fan. Quite simply, in terms as layman as layman can get, I think this is stupid. I feel the Phillies have completely mishandled Brett Myers since signing his three-year/25-million dollar deal following the 2006 season.

This wouldn’t even be the first time they have mishandled a player in the last few years either, as both Ryan Howard and Chase Utley were brought to the bigs later than they should have been. As it stands, both of these stars are currently approaching 30, rather then the perhaps 26-28 mark fans might expect given their service time. With Myers, however, it all started last year, with his shift to the bullpen. In 2005 and 2006 he posted the numbers below, more than proving he was a well above average major league starter:

2005: 3.72 ERA, 4.06 FIP, 215.1 IP, 68 BB, 208 K, 3.06 K/BB, 1.21 WHIP, .289 BABIP
2006: 3.91 ERA, 4.14 FIP, 198.0 IP, 63 BB, 189 K, 3.00 K/BB, 1.30 WHIP, .309 BABIP

He got off to a bad start last year, when, in 15.1 innings he allowed 16 earned runs to the tune of a 9.39 ERA. The strikeouts were still there at 19 but he had surrendered 5 home runs and walked 9 batters. Unfortunately, with Tom Gordon’s injury, the Phillies panicked and moved Myers to the bullpen. While there he actually performed quite well: 53.1 IP, 46 H, 17 ER, 4 HR, 18 BB, 74 K, 2.87 ERA. Despite the relative success this was a terrible move for Myers in the long term considering what he had proven himself capable of and how quickly the move was made; a drastic move like this should not be done after just three starts.

Myers then fell in love with the bullpen, where he could really let loose and throw his plus-fastball without having to pace himself. A combination of adapting to this new hard-throwing environment and perhaps being used too much resulted in an injury last May. Upon his return he continued his success and his love for the crucial moments grew, almost becoming addictive to Myers. It came as no surprise, then, that he did not welcome a move back to the rotation this season with open arms. In acquiring Brad Lidge the Phillies found a closer and could move Myers back to the rotation, where he truly belonged. Never one to shy away from his feelings he admitted how much he enjoyed the bullpen and his hesitancy to become a starter again. In fact, I can recall working in the television truck with my father during a Ricky Bottalico rehab start a while back in which Myers verbally expressed anger at Bottalico pitching the first couple of innings, delaying his (Myers) start to the game.

To show Myers how committed they were to him as a starter they even handed him the ball on opening day. He has not come close to expectations this year, posting a 5.84 ERA/5.71 FIP, 1.56 WHIP, and a league high 24 home runs surrendered. His K/BB has dropped to 2.00 as well. Plenty of us analysts have attempted to deduce the reasoning behind his struggles, finding that he has lost velocity and has struggled with location, but the Phillies are 4-13 in his starts (1-11 in his last 12) and his 3-9 W-L record is actually very indicative of his performance level so far.

The Phillies again found themselves in a Myers dilemma because he was hurting more than he was helping but another move to the bullpen could perhaps typecast him in that role. Essentially, because they miffed a decision last year, it is truly coming to haunt them this season. Perhaps a move to the minors can fix his mechanics or whatever the actual cause of his struggles is, but if Myers cannot rebound from said struggles, the blame from this Phillies fan goes towards their management for truly mishandling the situation. I personally felt the solution posed by Mitch Williams was better than a minor league demotion: lock him in a room somewhere or leave him in an empty clubhouse and just let the hot-headed guy go crazy, breaking things, and hope he gets that bulldog mentality back. The club went the other way and I am not too optimistic. I surely hope I am wrong though.

Anyone familiar with my work, be it here or elsewhere, can tell you that there is no pitcher I have covered more in my time as an analyst than Matt Cain. The Giants righty has been a favorite of mine since entering the big leagues in 2005 and I have always felt somewhat sorry for the guy. See, Cain generally pitches quite well though it fails to matter due to the poor quality of the Giants team he plays for. Quite simply, they do not score runs for the guy.

In his young career, Cain has a 3.87 ERA, 3.90 FIP, 1.26 WHIP, right around league average 72.0% LOB rate, K/BB above 2, opposing BA of .229, and BABIP of .276. Despite these very solid numbers his career record is a measly 26-35.

Last year, Cain allowed a maximum of two earned runs in 18 of his 32 starts, yet managed to go 5-7 with 6 no-decisions in those games. The bullpen blew five of his potential wins as well, giving him one of the, if not the, best 7-16 seasons in history. This year has been slightly better in that department: In 11 of 17 starts he has allowed a maximum of three earned runs and gone 4-1 in those games. Still, six no-decisions in games of that quality is a bit high.

In 2005, of all starting pitchers with at least 40 innings pitched, his 2.53 RS/9 (run support per nine innings) was the lowest in both the NL and MLB. In 2006 it evened out a bit, to the tune of 5.10 RS/9, right around the middle of the pack. Last year, his 3.51 RS/9 was again the worst in the NL and MLB. And this year, his 4.10 RS/9 ranks the 11th lowest in the NL. All told, over the last three calendary years, Cain has received 4.10 runs of support per nine innings pitched, the lowest of anyone.

Second place in that span? Why, Ian Snell of the Pirates… at 4.56 RS/9. Cain has received just about a half-run per nine innings less of support than his closest “competitor.” The average run support for pitchers qualifying for inclusion was 5.01, meaning Cain is supported almost a full run less per nine innings than the average starting pitcher in this span. And, with the Giants seemingly having no idea what they are doing from an offensive standpoint, there is very little to suggest something like this could drastically change. By the time Cain can hit the free agent market he could be a heavily coveted pitcher with a career W-L to date around 20-30 games under .500.

Prior to the season’s commencement, many analysts for whatever reason pegged the Tigers capable of scoring 1,000 runs this season. Whether these “projections” were born out of reality or more along the lines of superlatives to express how potent the offense could be, everyone expected them to succeed this season. Suffice it to say, on June 6th, when they sat at 24-36, twelve games under .500, and nowhere near the pace for 1,000 runs, bedlam worthy of Gotham City began to ensue in the minds of the Detroit faithful.

Since that day the Tigers have gone 18-4, improving their record to 42-40. While nothing spectacular it is still good enough for just five games out of first place. In lieu of their more extended recent winning ways I wanted to take a look at the major contributors. In terms of WPA, Placido Polanco, Miguel Cabrera, Magglio Ordonez, and Curtis Granderson all rank in the top 25 over the last fourteen days, ranging from 0.42 to 0.54 wins. Substitute Cabrera for Clete Thomas, with the other three in tact, and the group of four also ranks in the context-neutral top 35 in this same span.

Since June 6, here are some of the numbers for their offensive components:

Marcus Thames: .313/.362/.813, 1.175 OPS, 10 HR in 64 AB
Curtis Granderson: .423/.458/.628, 1.086 OPS, 4 2B, 3 3B, 2 HR
Placido Polanco: .427/.437/.537, .974 OPS
Clete Thomas: .450/.542/.650 in first career 24 PA
Miguel Cabrera: .306/.344/.482, .826 OPS, 6 2B, 3 HR
Gary Sheffield: .286/.310/.536, .846 OPS, 2 HR in 7 g returning from DL

The numbers of Cabrera and Sheffield may not seem as “special” relative to what was expected of them but the results since June 6 have been better than their overall numbers; for Sheffield, much better. What about the starting rotation? Jeremy Bonderman will miss the season but what are the other four main starters doing during this torrid stretch of play?

Armando Galarraga: 5 GS, 29.1 IP, 6 BB, 20 K, 2.76 ERA, 52 Game Score
Kenny Rogers: 5 GS, 33.1 IP, 9 BB, 10 K, 2.70 ERA, 54 Game Score
Justin Verlander: 5 GS, 33.0 IP, 14 BB, 34 K, 2.73 ERA, 61 Game Score
Nate Robertson: 4 GS, 24.2 IP, 6 BB, 17 K, 2.92 ERA, 52 Game Score

These four, whose combined W-L in this span is 10-2, range from 2.70-2.92 in ERA and 52-61 in Game Score average. Add in Eddie Bonine’s two most recent outings and the Tigers staff seems to be clicking on all cylinders. This team is not going to score 1,000 runs, and they are not going to sustain an .818 winning percentage the rest of the season, but they are not as bad as they looked early on. They struggled out of the gate and underachieved, and are now overachieving to make up for it. I guess it’s true that, for an AL team, there isn’t anything better to cure some performance ailments than facing the teams on the senior circuit.

And, while the White Sox are still playing well, how many non-Detroit and non-Chicago fans are starting to think—despite being potentially afraid to admit it—that the Tigers, 24-36 on June 6, could realistically win this division?

I know, I know: Hall of Fame discussions can be a bit tiresome these days. Still, something struck me a bit odd during a conversation with my father recently that merited further discussion amongst all the loyal readers and commenters here. Our conversation dealt with Todd Helton of the Colorado Rockies and whether or not his career accomplishments and accolades are “worthy” of inclusion into baseball’s hallowed hall. Essentially, I had contended that it would be very difficult for a Rockie to be inducted. For pitchers, the reasons should be a bit more obvious, but for hitters, they would have to have numbers great enough to transcend the initial, and likely true, belief that they benefited from playing in Coors Field.

Based on win probability statistics, Helton has been one of the, if not the, best first basemen in the National League since his Rookie of the Year-winning 1998 campaign. From 2000-2004 he contributed 26.88 WPA wins, 30.51 context-neutral wins, and averaged 69.78 BRAA per season. Other than his 2002 WPA, which ranked 5th, he finished #1 or #2 amongst NL first basemen in each of these categories, each year.

Since his career began in 1998, and amongst those with at least 1,000 games in that span, Helton’s .332 BA ranks second to only Ichiro Suzuki; his .432 OBP ranks second to none other than Barry Bonds; and his 1.017 OPS ranks fourth to Bonds, Albert Pujols, and Manny Ramirez.

The Hall of Fame tests created by Bill James may be a bit outdated in not accounting for park factors and such but still do a good job of stacking up current numbers against Cooperstown equivalencies and/or averages. Based on these it would seem Helton is a borderline case:

Black Ink: Helton=16, Average=27
Gray Ink: Helton=141, Average=144
HOF Standards: Helton=50, Average=50
HOF Monitor: Helton=154, Average > 100

He vastly exceeds the monitor, which serves to award points based on milestones and numbers accrued, but currently falls short in the ink tests; Black Ink measures how often a player leads the league while Gray looks at those who finish amongst the top performers. What hurts Helton from a statistical standpoint is that he looks to be borderline based on the aforementioned tests yet his career home/road splits confirm the theories of Coors dissenters:

Home: 3617 PA, .363/.461/.653, 1.114 OPS, 190 HR, 341 K
Road: 3488 PA, .294/.394/.494, .888 OPS, 120 HR, 467 K

Now, his road numbers are still quite good, and are well above average, but they definitely pale in comparison to the Ruthian efforts at home. Ultimately, though, I’ll pose the following questions:

a) When all is said and done will Helton be inducted? (Keep in mind “will” does not necessarily mean “deserve”)
b) What would it take for a Rockies hitter to be inducted? Equally impressive home/road splits?

Following a recent sweep by the Cubs at Wrigley Field, the White Sox last night got revenge by completing a sweep of their fellow Chicagoans on their own South Side turf. The 5-1 win gave the White Sox a 46-35 record and kept them in first place by 1.5 games over the Minnesota Twins. One of the key ingredients to their success this year has been the bullpen. Joe Morgan discussed how valuable they have been this year and the numbers back it up.

The White Sox bullpen currently has an MLB-best 2.61 ERA and has done so in 213.2 innings, a number lower than everyone except the Anaheim Los Angeles Californian Angels of Los Anaheim. The relief corps has not been called upon an exorbitant amount of time thanks in large part to the White Sox starting staff and their league leading 50 quality starts. That means in 62% of their games so far the bullpen hasn’t even gotten to rear its head until the seventh inning or later.

Overall, the White Sox have an MLB best 3.39 team ERA, and have walked just 227 batters—2.8 per game—which ranks second only to the Twins and their 198 free passes. Here are the five major components of the White Sox bullpen and their numbers:

Bobby Jenks: 32 G, 32.1 IP, 7 BB, 19 K, 1.95 ERA, 1.11 WHIP
Scott Linebrink: 36 G, 33.0 IP, 6 BB, 29 K, 1.36 ERA, 0.82 WHIP
Matt Thornton: 33 G, 31.1 IP, 9 BB, 40 K, 2.30 ERA, 0.80 WHIP
Boone Logan: 33 G, 28.1 IP, 6 BB, 29 K, 2.22 ERA, 1.09 WHIP
Octavio Dotel: 37 G, 36.2 IP, 19 BB, 53 K, 3.19 ERA, 1.36 WHIP

The games played numbers speak volumes toward the lack of overusage or abuse. In fact, you won’t find any White Sox relievers in the league leaders here on Fangraphs until you venture to the second page of players. Looking at all relievers with at least 20 IP—in order to get rid of those who wouldn’t qualify for relief rankings—the ChiSox have four in the top 35 in WHIP as well as three with K/BB ratios above 4.40; the other two chime in at a very respectable 2.79 and 2.71.

One aspect of bullpens I enjoy investigating involves how they were put together. With this team:

1. Bobby Jenks: selected off Waivers from Angels on 12/17/04
2. Scott Linebrink: signed 4 yr/19 mil deal this offseason
3. Matt Thornton: traded from Seattle for Joe Borchard on 3/20/06
4. Boone Logan: drafted 20th rd in 2002
5. Octavio Dotel: signed 2 yr/11 mil deal this offseason

Querying and exporting all relievers with 20+ innings allowed me to find some current averages. The average LOB rate for such relievers is 76.80%. Of the five White Sox discussed here, all but Dotel’s 71.7% come in at 78.5% or higher; Linebrink even sits at 92.1%.

In terms of WPA, the average for relievers with 20+ innings is 0.375. So, if we were to build a bullpen consisting of five “average” relievers (with 20+ IP), their WPA would amount to 1.88. Additionally, the average WPA/LI for this parameter is 0.282; five average pitchers with regards to this WPA/LI would combine for 1.41 context-neutral wins. The White Sox five currently have a 4.08 WPA and 3.48 WPA/LI, meaning they are 2.2 WPA wins above an average bullpen and 2.1 context-neutral wins above an average bullpen.

They have allowed the fourth least amount of total bases and have the second lowest OPS against at .687—only Oakland’s .661 ranks higher. Their bullpen may not sustain performance like this all season, but South Side fans should hope they do, considering their relievers have contributed the most win probability success to the team.

This past week proved to be quite the eventful one in major league baseball. The AL continued its domination of the senior circuit, the Tigers climbed back to .500, the Diamondbacks continued to fall toward .500, C.C. Sabathia dropped his ERA to 3.78 while taking the league lead with 118 strikeouts, and then there were the two events or oddities I will profile here: the Dodgers were no-hit and won, and the Twins faced four former Cy Young Award winners in five days.

First, the Twins: From 6/20 to 6/25 they played and won five contests in their nine-game winning streak, beating Randy Johnson, Brandon Webb, Jake Peavy, and Greg Maddux. Now, they did not beat all four of these pitchers, specifically, as Trevor Hoffman lost Peavy’s game; still, this made me wonder if something similar has ever happened before. Facing four Cy Young Award winners in five games would require two or more award winners to be on the same team as well as the schedule to pan out to one of the following:

a) 3 on one team, 1 on the team played after that series, faced consecutively
b) 2 on one team, 2 on the next team, comprising the final and first games of different series
c) 1 award winner in the final game of a series, 2 in a two-game series, and 1 to start the next

My first thought was that the Braves might factor in here as, from 1997-2002, John Smoltz, Greg Maddux, and Tom Glavine had all at least won one award. If the three of them pitched in a series and the opposing team then faced, say, Randy Johnson in their next game it would work. Unfortunately, I don’t have anything coded for this; if anyone out there does, please let us know if this has ever happened before.

Secondly, the Dodgers beat the Angels last night, 1-0, yet did not record one hit. Their lone run came on two errors and a sac fly in the fifth inning. Jered Weaver and Jose Arredondo combined to surrender no hits—it isn’t officially labeled a no-hitter by major league baseball since the Dodgers only batted eight times.

Though reported that this was the fifth time since 1900 in which a team won while failing to record a hit, the other four all appear to have taken place from 1956 until now. Here are the other four:

1) 4/23/1964, Reds 1-0 Colt .45’s, no-hit by Ken Johnson
2) 4/30/1967, Tigers 2-1 Orioles, 8.2 hitless from Steve Barber
3) 7/1/1990, White Sox 4-0 Yankees, 8.0 hitless from Andy Hawkins
4) 4/12/1992, Indians 2-1 Red Sox, 8.0 hitless from Matt Young

Only in a game like baseball can a pitcher allow no hits to his opposition, while pitching a complete game, yet lose the game and additionally fail to get his efforts recognized as a no-hitter. Such a crazy week in an unpredictable sport topped off with just the fifth hitless win in history.