With the new design of the home page up and running I recently noticed that Orioles closer George Sherrill not only has the oldest-sounding name in baseball but also leads all relievers with a 2.03 WPA. Sherrill, part of the Erik Bedard trade, has 17 saves out of the Orioles 23 wins; his saves:team wins percentage of 73.9 leads all closers as well.

Something interesting about his success—other than the fact that five of his saves have come against his former employer Seattle—is his higher than expected 3.43 ERA. Granted, ERA is not too useful of a barometer when analyzing the efforts of a closer, but his high saves total and high WPA led me to believe he has been shutting down opponents with the greatest of ease.

A closer look at his game logs shows that, of his 8 earned runs allowed, three have come in non-save situations and another two in his blown saves. In all successfully converted saves, Sherrill has allowed just three earned runs. Despite this relative success, there are four other closers who have been performing extremely well while surrendering next to nothing, regardless of whether or not their appearances coincide with blown saves or non-save situations.

Billy Wagner: 16 GP, 17 IP, 9 H, 0 ER, 3 BB, 19 K
Brad Lidge: 19 GP, 19 IP, 9 H, 1 ER, 8 BB, 21 K
BJ Ryan: 14 GP, 14 IP, 11 H, 1 ER, 6 BB, 17 K
Mariano Rivera: 16 GP, 17 IP, 9 H, 1 ER, 0 BB, 14 K

Here are the averages of these four stacked up next to Sherrill:

Sherrill: 21 GP, 21 IP, 13 H, 8 ER, 10 BB, 16 K
Others: 16 GP, 17 IP, 9 H, 1 ER, 4 BB, 17 K

Another interesting area to look at is the situation in which the closer entered. Coming into a bases loaded, no out situation with a one-run lead is much different than entering into a nobody on, one out situation with a two-run lead. The statistic gmLI measures the difficulty level when the pitcher entered the game. Here are the average gmLIs of these five closers:

Wagner: 1.34
Lidge: 1.83
Ryan: 2.10
Rivera: 1.65
Sherrill: 2.21

Generally speaking, the average LI, or neutral event, is 1.00; 10% of all events will be over 2.00.

Sherrill has the highest average gmLI of the five while Wagner has the lowest. While it is definitely remarkable that Wagner is yet to surrender an earned run—he has given up 4 unearned runs—it looks as though Sherrill has been less successful in preventing runs due to pitching in much tougher situations.

These other four may have better peripherals, but do not let Sherrill’s ERA fool you: In just 21 innings pitched he has contributed two wins while pitching in tough situations.

There has been speculation recently that, should the Rockies continue to struggle, they may be looking to part ways with offensive juggernaut Matt Holliday. Holliday, a Scott Boras client, will be a free agent following the 2009 season and will likely enter the market looking for a long-term, big-money contract that either a)the Rockies cannot give or b)the Rockies won’t want to give. Instead of focusing on the fiscal aspects of this situation, though, I wanted to take a look at his home and road splits; last year it became somewhat common knowledge on the East Coast, when discussing Holliday vs. Jimmy Rollins, that much of Matt’s stats came from his home park.

Here are Holliday’s yearly splits, from 2004 until now:

2004 H: .338/.406/.603, 10 HR, 29 K, 229 PA
2004 R: .240/.287/.367, 4 HR, 57 K, 210 PA

2005 H: .357/.409/.593, 12 HR, 45 K, 264 PA
2005 R: .256/.313/.416, 7 HR, 34 K, 262 PA

2006 H: .373/.440/.692, 22 HR, 44 K, 334 PA
2006 R: .280/.333/.485, 12 HR, 66 K, 353 PA

2007 H: .376/.435/.722, 25 HR, 58 K, 363 PA
2007 R: .301/.374/.485, 11 HR, 68 K, 350 PA

2008 H: .356/.440/.671, 4 HR, 13 K, 84 PA
2008 R: .283/.371/.402, 2 HR, 13 K, 105 PA

In case you hadn’t noticed, he has done leagues better at home than on the road. Put together, here are his career splits:

Home: .363/.426/.662, 73 HR, 189 K, 1274 PA
Road: .274/.336/.444, 36 HR, 238 K, 1260 PA

Finding comparisons generally helps to further a message so I probed the BR Play Index for players with career numbers similar to those in each of his splits. I found just one person from 2004-now with overall numbers anywhere near his home production: Albert Pujols.

In looking at his road numbers a plethora of names appeared but the closest match was the .275/.339/.456 line in this 4+ year span of Aubrey Huff.

While there is little doubt Holliday could have won the MVP award last season and little doubt about his talent, prospective teams looking to acquire his services and ink him to a mega-bucks deal might want to take into consideration he has been Albert Pujols at Coors Field and Aubrey Huff everywhere else. Not to say Huff is a bad player, which is the common misconception when looking at drastic statistical differences such as this, but he is not on the same level as Pujols.

Perhaps Holliday likes being at home, in general, regardless of whether said home field is Coors Field, but I would tend to think he is someone that truly benefits from that park.

Entering the season the Blue Jays felt that, with even a little run support, their starting pitching could do wonders to help propel them to victory. Roy Halladay has been a top-tier pitcher for a while now, even garnering compliments from President Bush; AJ Burnett is a flamethrower who has steadily produced over the last few years; and young Dustin McGowan looks poised to build on the success he experienced last year.

While most teams would kill to have three #1 or #2 starters at the front of their rotation, the Blue Jays actually have a fourth guy that, early into this season, has arguably contributed more to his team than all but two starting pitchers in the entire sport.

Shaun Marcum ranks third in WPA amongst all starting pitchers at 1.86, and has allowed just 30 hits in 56.2 innings of work.

Since becoming a starter in early May of last year, Marcum has posted the following numbers:

2007: 25 GS, 11-4, 142.2 IP, 43 BB, 100 K, 3.91 ERA, 1.23 WHIP
2008: 8 GS, 4-2, 56.2 IP, 16 BB, 49 K, 2.22 ERA, 0.81 WHIP

When put together it looks like a very solid, Cy Young Award contending full season:

33 GS, 15-6, 199.1 IP, 59 BB, 149 K, 3.43 ERA, 1.11 WHIP

Marcum is holding opponents to a .151/.217/.281 slash line and has left 80% of runners on base. His BABIP of .184 has been better than his .266 xBABIP, so this slash line is not very likely to keep up but he has definitely made his mark as a top-of-the-line #4 starter; especially considering there are some teams on which he would be a #2 starter.

An interesting note about Marcum’s success is his lack of fastball usage. Of non-Tim Wakefield starters, only four pitchers use their fastball less often; he throws it just 38% of the time. In fact, rotation-mates Jesse Litsch and Halladay come in at #2 and #9 in that same category.

Perhaps this vast repertoire of pitch selection and frequency helps provide the Blue Jays with one of the top rotations in the game. Either way, Marcum should not be overlooked as an up and coming and effective starter, regardless of how well his rotation-mates perform.

Without thinking or checking, name the top four pitchers in WPA!

For the very few of you that correctly named, in order, Cliff Lee, Joe Saunders, Shaun Marcum, and Zach Greinke, I’ll e-mail you a personalized congratulatory eCard. Lee has been chronicled just about everywhere and Dave profiled Saunders not too long ago. I will take a look at Marcum this weekend but, for now, let’s talk some Zach Greinke.

Greinke has been the ace of the young Royals staff, posting the following numbers in his eight starts:

4-1, 1.93 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, 2.75 K/BB, 7.0 IP/GS, 1.75 WPA, 17.47 BRAA

As mentioned above, his 1.75 WPA ranks fourth amongst all major league starters. His BRAA total of 17.47 and REW of 1.69 also rank fourth. I have received some questions with regards to REW so, to sum it up, REW produces a similar output as WPA but does so with the changes in run expectancy rather than win probability.

Greinke’s hot start has surprised many but a closer look at some recent statistic shows that it really should not be that shocking. He made 14 starts last year, with seven to open the season and seven to close it off. His first seven starts last year were subpar to the tune of:

0-4, 5.71 ERA, 1.73 WHIP, 1.45 K/BB, 4.95 IP/GS, -0.301 WPA

Pitching out of the bullpen for the next 38 games helped Greinke as he seemed to regain confidence and improve his numbers. Moved back to the rotation at the end of the season, here are his numbers from the final seven starts:

2-2, 1.85 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, 3.10 K/BB, 4.91 IP/GS, +0.864 WPA

The innings pitched per games started stayed very close but this was primarily due to Zach having to pitch himself back into starting shape; in the beginning of the season it had more to do with being ineffective. It does not take a rocket scientist, however, to deduce that his numbers at the end of the season were leagues better than at the start. Now, let’s put his final seven starts of last season next to his first eight this year:

2007: 1.85 ERA, 3.79 FIP, 1.18 WHIP, 3.10 K/BB, 4.9 IP/GS, +0.864 WPA
2008: 1.93 ERA, 3.81 FIP, 1.11 WHIP, 2.75 K/BB, 7.0 IP/GS, +1.750 WPA

Despite some subtle differences he is essentially building upon his success at the end of last season, my major reasoning for why his hot start should not come as a surprise to those paying full attention. One of the important areas not mentioned, though, deals with Greinke’s percentage of runners left on base. From 2002-2007, the highest two LOB% belong to Jake Peavy and Randy Johnson. In 2004, Peavy posted an 83.9 LOB%; in 2002, Johnson came in with 83.0%.

Greinke currently has an LOB% of 91.4, slightly ahead of Edinson Volquez and the aforementioned Cliff Lee. Unless Greinke plans on vastly outperforming pitchers this decade in that area, his LOB% is very likely to tail off as the season progresses, meaning more runs will score.

His balls in play rates have shifted recently, as well. In his career he has a LD/GB/FB of 21.7/36.9/41.3. Over his last 15 starts it is 15.9/41.3/42.8. Greinke may be able to turn in a great season but his significant shift in balls in play rates, coupled with his insanely high LOB%, tends to suggest he will not finish the season as rock solid as he currently looks.

Still, for a guy who battled depression and questioned whether or not he should continue to pitch, it is very fun to track his development as a major league pitcher.

There has not been too much written about the Rockies across the non-team specific blogosphere. Troy Tulowitzki is injured for a while, the back end of their rotation is a combined -36.58 BRAA, and the only section of the team with a positive WPA is the bullpen. Entering the season everyone envisioned Jeff Francis as the ace of the staff; after all, his post-season was quite impressive. Suffice it to say, Francis has had a rocky start…get it? It’s a pun because he plays for the… nevermind.

Entering tonight’s action Francis is 0-4 with a 6.27 ERA, 5.39 FIP, and 1.63 WHIP. His K/BB has plummeted an entire point, from 2.62 a year ago to 1.63 today. This has all resulted in a -0.50 WPA.

Fortunately, for Rockies fans, Aaron Cook has been performing above and beyond expectations. Through eight starts, Cook is posting the following numbers:

6-1, 2.26 ERA, 55.2 IP, 17 BB, 23 K, 1.13 WHIP

Here are some of his more advanced stats:

3.89 FIP, 1.35 K/BB, 3.72 K/9, 78.2 LOB%, 1.42 WPA, 11.84 BRAA

Based on his home runs and walks allowed, as well as strikeouts, his ERA should be closer to 3.89 than the Maddux-like 2.26 it currently rests at. He has a very low K/9; his 3.72 ranks as the 6th lowest in baseball. His WPA of 1.42 ranks as the seventh best among starting pitchers. Additionally, his 11.84 BRAA comes in at fourth best in the National League.

Cook currently has a BABIP against of .243, which is right on par with his 13.6 LD%. The problem, however, exists in that very low rate of line drives. It simply is uncharacteristic of the Aaron Cook we have come to know and love. His career balls-in-play rates, which do not suffer/benefit from fluctuations, come in at 18.5 LD/61.4 GB/25.0 FB; as of right now it is 13.6 LD/58.3 GB/23.1 FB. It really is not very likely that he will maintain this rate.

Overall, though, Cook has gone 6+ innings in all eight of his starts, allowing a maximum of four earned runs just once; that game was his first of the season.

In his last five games he has an average Game Score of 61 and is holding opponents to a .231/.286/.346 slash line. He may not keep this up all season but Cook has definitely made up for the shortcomings of Francis thus far.

Last year, the Texas Rangers had arguably the worst statistical pitching rotation in all of baseball, perhaps one of the worst in a long time. Their numbers?

Brandon McCarthy: -1.03 WPA, -7.63 BRAA, 1.59 WHIP, 4.74 FIP, 1.23 K/BB
Kameron Loe: -1.65 WPA, -19.81 BRAA, 1.60 WHIP, 4.66 FIP, 1.39 K/BB
Kevin Millwood: -1.81 WPA, -15.99 BRAA, 1.62 WHIP, 4.55 FIP, 1.84 K/BB
Robinson Tejeda: -2.45 WPA, -27.15 BRAA, 1.78 WHIP, 6.19 FIP, 1.15 K/BB
Vicente Padilla: -2.84 WPA, -22.51 BRAA, 1.63 WHIP, 5.26 FIP, 1.42 K/BB

The rotation cost the rangers about 10 wins on the seasons and finished 93.1 BRBA (Batting Runs Below Average). The lowest WHIP of the group came in at 1.59 and the highest K/BB was 1.84. Additionally, any rotation in which the top FIP is 4.55 is less than stellar. How are the Rangers pitchers performing this year?

Well, Millwood and Padilla are still there but GM Jon Daniels turned in his hand and asked for three new cards in the forms of Kason Gabbard, Jason Jennings, and, gulp, Sidney Ponson. Here are their numbers:

Kason Gabbard: 0-1, 2.12 ERA, 4.25 FIP, 0.79 K/BB, 1.42 WHIP, 0.80 WPA
Kevin Millwood: 2-3, 4.88 ERA, 4.47 FIP, 1.55 K/BB, 1.69 WHIP, 0.41 WPA
Vicente Padilla: 5-2, 3.23 ERA, 4.64 FIP, 1.84 K/BB, 1.42 WHIP, 0.27 WPA
Sidney Ponson: 2-0, 3.16 ERA, 3.89 FIP, 1.33 K/BB, 1.40 WHIP, 0.02 WPA
Jason Jennings: 0-5, 8.56 ERA, 8.07 FIP, 0.67 K/BB, 1.94 WHIP, -1.20 WPA

Though the numbers appear to be better in the early going, just about anything would be better than the numbers from last season.

In just four starts, Ponson has a very solid 3.89 FIP and, an about league average 1.40 WHIP. Overall, though, his 0.02 WPA suggests his efforts have essentially evened out to just about no contribution. Padilla has the highest K/BB and an improved 1.42 WHIP; however, his FIP implies his ERA has been very lucky. Gabbard and Millwood have contributed a good amount, via WPA, but their efforts are cancelled out by Jason Jennings’ terrible performance.

Overall, their rotation this year has an aggregate +0.30 WPA compared to the -9.78 WPA from a year ago. Lastly, here are the rotation averages:

2007: 4.82 FIP, 1.64 WHIP, 1.41 K/BB, -1.96 WPA
2008: 4.94 FIP, 1.56 WHIP, 1.25 K/BB, +0.06 WPA

Take out Jason Jennings and his awful statistics and the 2008 rotation looks a whole lot better, but in the early going, it appears to be very comparable to last season. It is too early to say the rotations are definitively similar in quality but they are currently below average statistically, and Sidney Ponson has not yet imploded.

One of my favorite features here at Fangraphs is the data on minor leage players. With the recently added “items on screen” drop down we can now easily update and maintain our own minor league database. Delving into the statistics I decided to look at the top hitters and pitchers in both the International and Pacific League; both contain AAA affiliates. This is not to suggest these players deserve promotions or that their major league counterparts should be demoted, but rather just a simple scan of who has been producing at a high level in areas many of us tend not to follow.

International League Hitters
Mike Hessman, Det, 1B: .308/.392/.747, 1.138 OPS, 17 HR-30 RBI
Brad Eldred, CHW, 1B: .298/.348/.672, 1.019 OPS, 12 HR-36 RBI
Dewayne Wise, CHW, OF: .351/.396/.613, 1.011 OPS, 7 HR-15 RBI, 12 SB
Jay Bruce, Cin, OF: .352/.391/.613, 1.004 OPS, 7 HR-30 RBI
Darnell McDonald, Min, OF: .336/.392/.600, .992 OPS, 4 HR-26 RBI

International League Pitchers
Dan Giese, NYY: 2.27 FIP, 39.2 IP, 9 BB, 35 K
Charlie Morton, Atl: 2.58 FIP, 48.0 IP, 15 BB, 39 K
David Purcey, Tor: 2.82 FIP, 44.2 IP, 16 BB, 52 K
Matt Maloney, Cin: 2.96 FIP, 41.1 IP, 13 BB, 37 K
Eddie Bonine, Det: 2.97 FIP, 48.1 IP, 6 BB, 29 K, 7-0 W-L

Pacific League Hitters
Nelson Cruz, Tex, OF: .336/.471/.700, 1.171 OPS, 11 HR-32 RBI, 11 SB
Matt Brown, LAA, 3B: .365/.416/.679, 1.095 OPS, 8 HR-28 RBI
Terry Tiffee, LAD, 3B: .430/.474/.620, 1.094 OPS, 3 HR-33 RBI
Russell Branyan, Mil, OF: .54/.434/.638, 1.072 OPS, 8 HR-26 RBI
James D’Antona, Ari, 3B: .421/.430/.627, 1.057 OPS, 4 HR-22 RBI

Pacific League Pitchers
Brian Stokes, NYM: 2.65 FIP, 38.0 IP, 14 BB, 38 K, 5.68 ERA
Mike Burns, CHC: 2.69 FIP, 35.0 IP, 6 BB, 34 K
Carlos Alvarado, LAA: 2.86 FIP, 38.2 IP, 14 BB, 37 K
Ryan Feierabend, Sea: 3.11 FIP, 43.0 IP, 10 BB, 30 K
RA Dickey, Sea: 3.20 FIP, 42.2 IP, 6 BB, 25 K

The most intriguing player here is Jay Bruce, who has been performing at a very high level; you might remember the dismay of many fans in Cincinnati when news broke of Dusty Baker’s decision to send Bruce to the minors in favor of Corey Patterson. Some of the others here, such as Cruz, Hessman, Eldred, and Wise, have seemingly been given the AAAA tag; they may get chances here and there but are likely to maintain tremendous production in the minors and below average production in the majors.

We’ll have to wait and see what happens but I would not be surprised if any of these players is called up to the big club at some point in the near future due to poor production or injuries.

For a few years running Phillies pitcher Brett Myers has entered the season with the “he could (insert positive breakout pitching feat)” analysis seemingly attached to his hip. Following stellar seasons in 2005 and 2006, he was moved into the closers role last year when Tom Gordon went down with an injury. As a closer he was essentially lights out, though he himself also missed time with an injury. The Brad Lidge acquisition pushed Myers back into his regular role as a starter and, suffice it to say, he has not lived up to expectations so far.

In looking at his numbers I found that he has some pretty significant splits. Below are his overall numbers on the season, followed by his splits against lefty and righty hitters:

Overall: 8 GS, 49.0 IP, 15 BB, 42 K, 5.33 ERA, 5.53 FIP, 1.47 WHIP

LHH: 87 PA, 10 BB, 21 K, .227/.314/.480
RHH: 132 PA, 5 BB, 21 K, .325/.359/.569

Righties have hit him harder and more often. Another area of significance is his Home/Away splits, where he has pitched an equal amount of times:

Home: 4 GS, 2-0, 3.00 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, 27 IP, 6 BB, 25 K
Away: 4 GS, 0-3, 8.18 ERA, 2.04 WHIP, 22 IP, 9 BB, 17 K

Here are his Home/Away splits against batters faced:

Home: 109 PA, 5 HR, .210/.266/.390
Away: 110 PA, 7 HR, .367/.417/.634

Myers is pitching very well at home yet struggling on the road, which defies conventional wisdom in the sense that his home park is arguably the most hitter-friendly in the entire National League. In looking at his starts on the road, though, he has pitched in Arizona, Colorado, and Cincinnati; three stadiums also known for their hitting prowess.

He has also struggled when a runner gets on first base, a problem that in part led to the minor league demotion of Dave Bush:

Nobody On: .269/.320/.538
On First: .367/.387/.767

Batters have performed better against him early in the game than later, as evidenced by the numbers against the first and second times through the batting order:

1st: .329/.373/.557
2nd: .266/.319/.469

Myers recently stated that he attributes his struggles to lost velocity on his fastball. A quick check of the wonderful data here at Fangraphs shows that, in 2005 and 2006, his fastball averaged between 91 and 93 miles per hour; it is currently averaging 89 mph. The decrease in velocity may or may not be a direct cause of his inconsistency this season, but his career splits are nowhere near as drastic in these areas as they are right now; in fact, the times through the order numbers are actually reversed in his career splits as the first time through generally struggles while the second and third time through tends to do better.

Regardless, something is going on that needs fixing, whether it be his selection or sequencing, because whatever he is currently doing has not worked. If this keeps up, he could enter next season as a disappointment rather than a potential breakout candidate.

In order to quell the somewhat heated Tony La Russa and Scott Rolen situation in St. Louis, the Cardinals shipped the disgruntled third baseman to the Blue Jays in exchange for Troy Glaus. The move catalyzed a frenzy of “this should benefit both teams” reactions, primarily due to both players experiencing recent downward trends in success. Rolen has been very injury prone in recent years while some speculate Glaus’s struggles are a direct result of no longer “allegedly” taking steroids. Approximately one-fourth of the way through the season, how is this exchange looking?

Glaus Facts
.230/.357/.357 Slash Line
1 HR, 21 RBI
16.6 BB%, 22.2 K%
.289 BABIP, .284 Career BABIP
18.0/36.0/46.0 LD/GB/FB, 19.2/35.6/45.2 Career LD/GB/FB
-3.21 BRAA, -0.32 REW
-0.50 WPA, 5.12 Games Advanced

Glaus’s SLG has struggled in the early going primarily due to hitting just one home run. His BABIP and BIP rates are all very similar to his career rates. Despite this, he clearly is not producing at his standard level. His struggles have cost the Cardinals about 1/3 of a game via Run Expectancy and 1/2 of a game via Win Probability. Games Advanced can be found by +WPA minus -WPA, and shows how many games a players efforts have effected; whether positive or negative, Glaus has had an effect on five of the Cardinals games.

His swing data shows an increase above his career rates in swings both inside and outside of the strike zone. His contact rate in the zone is four percent higher than his career averages while his contact rate outside of the zone is about five percent less. Overall, though, he is making more contact in the early going… he just must not be doing much with that contact.

Rolen Facts
In just 65 PA through 16 GP
.316/.385/.561 Slash Line
9.5 BB%, 12.3 K%
.333 BABIP, .314 Career BABIP
27.5/29.4/43.1 LD/GB/FB, 21.8/33.7/44.6 Career LD/GB/FB
1.45 BRAA, 0.14 REW
0.17 WPA, 2.81 Games Advanced

The first area that jumps out is his high line drive rate. Rolen may end up in future conversations about very high LD% but it is more likely he will regress closer to the 21-23% range. He seems to be swinging less at pitches in the zone while making more contact with those pitches, relative to his career totals. He has also maintained his career swing rate at pitches out of the zone while increasing his contact by seven percent.

Overall
It’s too early to discuss anything significant with regards to Rolen’s numbers but Glaus simply has not done too well in the first quarter of the season. Rolen, as Dave mentioned earlier tonight, has been one of just two players with positive BRAAs on the anemic Blue Jays offense, and he has only played in 16 games. If the season were to end today, for whatever reason, this trade would appear to be in the Blue Jays favor. In another month, who knows?

If Rolen continues to get hurt, and Glaus doesn’t improve, this won’t be a trade that benefits both teams but rather one that provides equal and mediocre production to the Cardinals and Blue Jays.

In light of Justin Verlander’s struggles I am going to skip my normal opening paragraph designed to introduce the topic at hand and just plain pose the question – What is going on with the Tigers ace?

Last year, he went 18-6 with a 3.99 FIP, a WHIP of 1.23, and 183 strikeouts in 201.2 innings. This year, his WHIP currently sits at 1.46; his FIP has jumped to 5.37; and he has already matched his total losses from last year at six. Here are his stats in a form easier to compare:

2007: 18-6, 201.2 IP, 181 H, 82 ER, 67 BB, 183 K
2008: 1-6, 49.0 IP, 51 H, 35 ER, 21 BB, 30 K

2007: 3.66 ERA, 3.99 FIP, 1.23 WHIP
2008: 6.43 ERA, 5.37 FIP, 1.46 WHIP

In eight starts Verlander has allowed less than 4 earned runs just once! His BABIP against has not changed much, going from .294 last year to .289 to date. Does this match what we would expect?

2007: 19.1 LD%, .311 xBABIP, .294 BABIP
2008: 13.4 LD%, .254 xBABIP, .289 BABIP

Okay, well there’s a possible explanation. He is allowing just about six percent less line drives, splitting the difference between grounders and flyballs, so he has been unlucky, but is his performance really only driven by a lack of luck?

Looking at his percentage of runners left on base, it has plummeted from 74.9% last year to 56.4 right now. He is stranding over 18% less runners in the early going than he did last year.

The jump in his WHIP can be attributed to a decrease in his K/9, increase in his BB/9, and decrease in his K/BB:

2007: 8.17 K/9, 2.99 BB/9, 2.73 K/BB
2008: 5.51 K/9, 3.86 BB/9, 1.46 K/BB

He isn’t striking out nearly as many batters and is walking more; this is not a formula for success. Why isn’t he striking as many batters out?

Looking at his pitch selection and velocity, he is throwing essentially the same percentage of fastballs, curveballs, and changeups.

2007: 62.3% FA, 18.9% CB, 18.8% CH
2008: 62.5% FA, 19.6% CB, 17.9% CH

Looking at velocity we can see a discrepancy. While his curveball and changeup have maintained their velocity from a year ago, his fastball has significantly decreased.

2007: Fastball, 62.3%, 94.8 mph
2008: Fastball, 62.5%, 93.0 mph

He currently has the ninth lowest WPA amongst starting pitchers, at -0.72, but his WPA/LI comes in lower at -0.38. This tells me that his results regardless of the situation are better than what his results due to the situation suggest. He is the one putting himself in these situations, though, with his increase in baserunners allowed.

From first glance it appears that, if his decrease in velocity is truly the reason for the lack of strikeouts, than that would be a big, big problem. When he experienced success in 2006 and 2007 he threw 94+ mph, limited his baserunners, stranded a high percentage of those that reached base, and struck out a good amount relative to his walks surrendered.

This year, none of that is happening relative to the last two seasons. Sure he is a bit unlucky in his BABIP, especially since he is allowing a very low rate of 13% line drives, but if I am on the Tigers staff I am going to be more concerned with Verlander regaining the controllable skills that made him a dominant AL pitcher than chalking everything up as some bad luck.