While most of the attention directed towards second basemen is deservedly paid to Chase Utley, another NL East player of the same position, who also happens to have a five-lettered last name beginning with “U” has been posting some pretty solid numbers of his own. Clearly, the title of this post indicates I am speaking about Dan Uggla, who has helped the Marlins to a 23-14 record; believe it or not… that is the highest winning percentage in baseball. Yes, folks, the Marlins, as of right now, are “the best team in baseball.”

Uggla has posted some pretty drastic splits in his numbers this year but let’s first examine everything on the whole:

2006: .282/.339/.480, 112 OPS+, 27 HR, 33 2B-3B, 154 GP
2007: .245/.326/.479, 108 OPS+, 31 HR, 52 2B-3B, 159 GP
2008: .279/.359/.618, 155 OPS+, 11 HR, 12 2B-3B, 36 GP

Taking batting average out of the equation, Uggla essentially performed the same last year as in his rookie season. Many thought he fell into the sophomore slump due to his .245 BA and big jump in strikeouts (123 to 167), but his OBP, SLG, OPS, OPS+, HR and RBI all remained relatively similar. Additionally, his BABIP was a tad lucky in 2006 whereas it was right on par last year. This year, however, everything has jumped and were he to keep pace, he would finish the season with close to 50 home runs. This is not very likely to happen, though, so instead of focusing on what he could do this year, let’s look at what is contributing to these numbers, starting with his splits vs. pitchers:

vs. RHP: .307/.383/.733, 11 HR, 24 RBI (115 PA)
vs. LHP: .200/.293/.286, 0 HR, 3 RBI (41 PA)

Here are his home/road splits:

Home: .213/.306/.533, .839 OPS, 6 HR, 12 RBI (85 PA)
Away: .361/.423/.721, 1.142 OPS, 5 HR, 15 RBI (71 PA)

And here are splits between April and May:

April: 26 GP, .255/.330/.471, .801 OPS, .306 BABIP, 4 HR, 12 RBI
May: 10 GP, .353/.439/1.059, 1.498 OPS, .313 BABIP, 7 HR, 15 RBI

He has homered in seven of his ten games this month and has an absolutely ridiculous SLG and OPS. Additionally, looking at his career splits, May has always been his best month. In May, over the last three years, he has an OPS of 1.026; next closest is June’s .903.

To sum everything up, this year Uggla likes facing righties and hitting on the road, and in his career, REALLY likes this month.

With Corey Koskie suffering from post-concussion syndrome, and the platoon of Craig Counsell/Tony Graffanino not producing, the Brewers brought up Ryan Braun last May hoping he could quell any or all of their hot corner problems. The prospect with the nickname “The Hebrew Hammer”—odd, that’s Gabe Kapler’s nickname as well—did not disappoint, posting incredibly gaudy numbers in just 113 games. He would win the Rookie of the Year award and, by all accounts, had one of the best offensive rookie seasons in the history of the game.

In it, he posted a slash line of .324/.370/.634, with an 153 OPS+, 26 doubles, 6 triples, and 34 home runs. Remember, too, that his season did not begin until May 24th.

He has gotten off to a slow start this year, hitting .275/.306/.463, with an OPS+ of just 99, 13 doubles, and 5 home runs. Coming into the season the projection systems did not have much to work with, as he only played most of one season, but all saw him finishing the season with an OPS of at least .829; it is currently .769. Those with OPS counts in a similar range: Jeff Keppinger (.770), Ian Kinsler (.773).

***Actually, and I only leave this in because it helps prove a small sample size point, but this article was written seemingly before Braun’s stats from yesterday updated; with his game yesterday, some of the numbers change. Due to his two home run performance, his OPS jumped from .769 to .814. And, for anyone wondering, Kinsler went up to .793 while Keppinger skyrocketed to .800.***

MGL recently posted a study that takes a look at what hot or cold April’s tell us about hitters. He finds that those who started off slow essentially finished the year with their projected OPS; while this does not necessarily relate to Braun in the sense that those used in the study had OPS counts under .500, I think the above mention of his OPS jump illustrates how hot or cold starts can be very deceiving and not necessarily indicative at all of what to expect. His numbers still aren’t where they were last year but that does not mean they will not be by the end of the year.

Using the stats we have for this season, let’s try to deduce what Braun is doing differently this year, if anything, or if this is all just the work of evil small sample sizes.

Looking at his swing data, he is making contact much more than he did last year. Despite swinging at about five percent less pitches in the strike zone he is making contact over six percent more often. Additionally, he is swinging at over four percent more pitches outside of the strike zone but making contact three percent more often. As we would intuitively expect following such a tremendous season, he is seeing less pitches in the strike zone. While I will need to do a full Pitch F/X study on him to see what he’s doing with these pitches outside of the zone, one possibility is that he simply isn’t connecting as well to them.

Another area to explore involves his BABIP and rates of balls in play. He is hitting more line drives this year, going from 16% to 18%; his grounders have gone from 38.8% to 32.8%; and his flyballs have jumped from 44.9% to 49.2%. Last year, his xBABIP would have been somewhere in the .280-.286 range; it ended up at .367. This year, though, they are within reason; his current BABIP of .313 comes pretty darn close to his expected .306 clip.

Another interesting aspect of the Hebrew Hammer (Braun, not Kapler) is his walks deficiency. He walked just 6% of the time last year, resulting in a BB/K of 0.26; that 0.26 would have been the seventh worst had he garnered enough plate appearances to truly qualify. This year he is walking just 4.4% of the time and, despite reducing his K-rate by about four percent, his BB/K of 0.23 currently ranks as the eighth worst.

This is essentially just a recap of what he has been doing this year as compared to last, and it seems that a few of the aforementioned factors are contributing to his “slow” start. Then again, as MGL and Braun’s performance yesterday showed, things can quickly change. For the sake of Braun and Brewers fans everywhere, I hope in August, when Braun smacks dingers #42-43 we can revisit this article and go “Jeez, what the heck was Seidman talking about!?”

An article of mine titled “Low Risk-Any Reward?” was published in the most recent issue of SABR’s newsletter, By the Numbers. The article looked at low-risk pitcher signings from 2002-2007 and sought to find out if they were really worth the risk. This year, at least one such low-risk signing is performing pretty well. His name is Shawn Chacon and you may remember the 30-yr old Alaskan from his past work with the Rockies, Yankees, and Pirates.

Chacon has made seven starts this year and is yet to receive a decision. Yes, you read that correctly: he is still 0-0. While Aaron Harang has been unlucky in his decisions received, Chacon hasn’t even gotten the chance to receive unmerited decisions.

He has gone six or more innings in all but one start and allowed more than three runs just twice; ironically, they were his most recent starts.

On the year he has pitched in 45 innings, surrendering 40 hits and 22 walks, while striking out 32 batters. With five home runs allowed and a 1.45 K/BB ratio, his ERA of 3.60 is a bit misleading of his skill level; his FIP suggests it should be closer to 4.48.

His 1.38 WHIP greatly benefits from a 78.2 LOB% and hitters are producing at a slash line of .244/.332/.402; an OPS of .734. Oddly enough, Chacon is the first pitcher I’ve come across here whose BABIP perfectly correlates with his xBABIP via frequency of line drives. His 15.0% LD would suggest a BABIP of .270. His actual BABIP? .269!

He has cut back on his usage of fastballs by nearly ten percent, filling the void with three percent more sliders and six percent more curveballs. His next scheduled start is May 11th. Hopefully he can get a decision then or else Odalis Perez’s record of 18 ND’s in 2004 may soon be in jeopardy.

Prior to this season I strongly contended that Aaron Harang was the most underrated starting pitcher in the National League. A little over a month into the season and my contention has grown. There’s a formula I like to use to determine underratedness:

Underrated = (Being On A Bad Team + Very Few, If Any, Nationally Televised Games)/(Never Posting Insane Conventional Stats, Like 20 Wins, That Would Force Somebody To Take Notice)

It’s a bit long but it gets the job done and sums up Harang. Some may argue, “But Eric… Harang does post great stats,” and I would agree; however, he has never won 20 games or posted a 2.40 ERA, or struck out 265 batters, which are numbers that would literally force Cy Young Award voters and more casual fans to take notice.

From 2005-2007, The Harangutan has made 32+ starts, pitched in 210+ innings, walked no more than 56, and increased his strikeouts from 163 to 218. His WHIP has ranged from 1.27 to 1.14 and his ERA has decreased from 3.83 to 3.73. His FIPs of 3.67-3.71 imply his ERA has mostly painted an accurate portrait.

This year, Harang has the following line:

8 GS, 3.09 ERA, 3.17 FIP, 1.10 WHIP, 55.1 IP, 48 H, 13 BB, 47 K; opponents are hitting .235/.281/.382 (.663 OPS); and his average Game Score is 59.

His record, you may ask? 1-5. One win and five losses despite posting the numbers above. Harang has given up more than three runs in just one start. If we remove that start he has a 2.55 ERA, a 1.03 WHIP, and an average Game Score of 61.

How has this happened? Well, run support! The Reds have scored a measly 14 runs for Harang. On top of that, four of those runs came in his lone victory. In his other seven starts he has received 10 runs of support in 47.1 innings. Jorge de la Rosa got seven runs from his team just yesterday.

I probed the B-R Play Index to find pitchers in recent years who have experienced similar plight. Though this is likely specially selecting stats, the criteria used:

a) In the team’s first 40 games
b) From 1999-2008 (ten years)
c) Game Scores of 55+
d) No more than 3 ER
e) Resulting in a Loss or No-Decision

That criteria brought a five-way tie for first place, with each of the five recording 5 losses/no-decisions. The players were: Harang, Odalis Perez (2008), Roger Clemens (2005), Chris Carpenter (2006), and Jason Bergmann (2007).

If the Reds do not start picking up their ace he could very well fall into the 2007 Matt Cain category of extreme unluckiness.

I get quite a bit of e-mail from those asking for fantasy baseball advice. People want to know who to drop, who to pickup, and whether or not a certain proposed trade bodes well for them. Though I do not consider myself to be an expert, by any means, there are certain tips I usually give out, many of which are derived from this site.

One recent e-mail included the following question: “Should I trade Roy Oswalt? He’s got a 5.33 ERA and is giving up a ton of home runs.”

Though I initially scoffed at the idea of getting rid of arguably the most consistently good pitcher of the decade, it soon dawned on me that fantasy baseball still uses more conventional statistics. In an online world where BA, W-L, and ERA still run rampant his “dilemma” is more of, well, a dilemma. Still, though…

Oswalt has not posted an ERA+ under 125 since 2004 and has been a lock for 30+ starts, 210+ innings, and 150+ strikeouts. This year, though, he has an ERA+ of just 78, a WHIP of 1.49, and has already surrendered 11 home runs. In the four-year span prior to this season he averaged just 17 home runs.

The problem here can be solved by looking at his splits. Oswalt got off to a very rocky start but has definitely picked his game up of late. In his first three starts:

0-3, 9.00 ERA, 16 IP, 30 H, 16 ER, 2 BB, 12 K; Average Game Score = 29; Opponents hitting .400/.410/.720.

In his five starts following that:

3-0, 3.55 ERA, 33 IP, 28 H, 13 ER, 13 BB, 30 K; Average Game Score = 56; Opponents hitting .228/.307/.447.

He has definitely been more Roy-like lately but the home runs surrendered are a tad alarming. Also alarming is how his walks have increased and strikeouts have decreased from 2005 to 2007. To answer, no, unless you can get an absolutely tremendous offensive player to fill a desperately needed void, do not trade Roy Oswalt.

On the other hand, though, you might want to start convincing others in your league that he’s lost a step and you’ll “take him off of their hands.” Even if he is not exactly the same pitcher he was from 2002-2006 he is still a consistent and durable ace that any team, fantasy or professional, should be happy to have.

Following a disastrous 0-6 start that saw him allow 56 baserunners in 28.2 innings, the Giants demoted Barry Zito to the bullpen. How bad was his start to the season? His average game score, which measures the in-depth quality of a start, comes in at 34; with game scores, 50 is the starting point for quality. He struck out just 11 batters while walking 15 and surrendering four home runs. Though his FIP of 5.81 suggested a 7.53 ERA may have been too harsh, 5.81 is not going to help a manager sleep at night.

Prior to a game against the Phillies, cameras spotted Zito getting advice from the venerable Jamie Moyer. I guess since Zito is already pitching like a 70-year old lefty he might as well learn how to be effective as one. Or maybe they were talking about Moyer’s favorite episode of Dharma and Greg.

Either way, Zito’s demotion did not last long as he made no relief appearances and was given the ball to start last night. Perhaps the demotion served its purpose as a wakeup call or one of those trips to the disabled list with a phantom injury.

As the title of this post suggests, though, Zito actually pitched pretty well. Generally a fastball, curveball, changeup pitcher, Zito had been struggling with velocity; if his fastball lacked speed there would not be enough of a separation between that and the changeup. Additionally, if hitters knew he had a weak fastball, he could not utilize it to keep them off guard; therefore, his curveball would look like hanging junk instead of the devastating out pitch it used to be.

In his previous start, April 27th against the Reds, Zito got clocked with a fastball ranging from 80-82 mph. In fact, some of his fastballs were so slow that the classification algorithm mistook them for changeups. Last night, however, against the Pirates, the Pitch F/X data says that the vast majority of Zito’s heaters came in the 84-86 mph range.

He threw a first pitch strike to just 7 of the 18 batters that did not put it in play on the first pitch. Despite this, he only walked two batters, and recorded a season high five strikeouts. Of these strikeouts, he did not follow a pattern in using a specific out-pitch but he did use his curveball as a major device. If he didn’t strike a batter out with the curve he would use it to set up the following pitch. All five of these strikeouts came from either a curveball or a sequence set up by the curveball.

His changeup was quite effective last night, however two poor ones resulted in the only two runs he surrendered; essentially, these hanging changeups handed him a seventh loss. Throwing it exclusively to righties, here is a location chart:

The circled pitches are the two hits that cost him: a single and a home run in the fourth inning given up to Jason Bay and Xavier Nady respectively. The home run came on the pitch with the larger circle.

Here is a look at Zito’s movement last night:

Though a few of his curveballs lacked efficient movement the larger majority moved quite a bit. Very interesting is his fastball movement. Last night it averaged around five horizontal inches and twelve vertical inches. Here is his movement from the 4/27 start:

Here his fastball averaged about three horizontal inches and eleven vertical inches. Not only has his fastball lacked velocity but apparently it has also lacked sufficient movement to garner some positive results. His changeup was much more consistent last night as well.

Hopefully, for the sake of Giants fans, Zito can build on this in his next start. While he is still on pace to at least tie the all-time losses record (29), this particular loss must have been pretty uplifting for his confidence.

Primarily due to the MLB Extra Innings package and my sheer love of the sport I am a true baseball junkie. I don’t care if it’s the generic Red Sox/Tigers matchup on ESPN or the local feed of a Reds/Nationals game; watching various games helps me connect better with players who would otherwise be nothing more than names on a page. Something that comes with the territory of watching so much baseball is listening to different sets of broadcasters and their terminology or beliefs.

Though many differ in opinion over issues pertaining to clutch hitting, or Barry Bonds, one common weapon in their broadcasting arsenal involves some form of the following phrase: “Well, (insert pitcher) needs to just shut them down this inning to keep the momentum going.”

These assertions generally occur after their team has scored to either a) take the lead, b)tie the game, or c) make a significant effort to come back. Regardless of which takes place, the idea is that momentum has begun its shift into their dugout and, by shutting down the opponent in the following half-inning and preventing them from tacking on more runs, it can sustain its new position.

Hearing about these magical shutdown innings so much made me research which pitchers are truly the best at ensuring a change in momentum is not a fluke. Essentially, I’m defining these Shutdown Innings (SHIP) as any half-inning following one in which the team scores, to bring themselves within a maximum of four runs (ahead or below).

Trailing by nine runs and scoring two would not cause the following half-inning to qualify as a potential shutdown inning; trailing by nine runs and scoring five or six would. On a similar token, leading by one run and then scoring five would not lead to a SHIP; however, leading by one and then scoring two or three would.

Just looking at the National League, for now, I took every pitcher with 41+ innings (the top 25) and scanned their individual game logs to come up with the following top ten:

1) Todd Wellemeyer, 9-9, 1.000
2) Braden Looper, 10-11, .909
3) Scott Olsen, 7-8, .875
4) Ryan Dempster, 11-13, .846
5) Tim Lincecum, 10-12, .833
6) Jake Peavy, 9-11, .818
7) Mark Hendrickson, 13-16, .813
8) Jair Jurrjens, 12-15, .800
9) Dan Haren, 12-15, .800
10) Aaron Cook, 11-14, .786

Wellemeyer and Looper have provided 19 SHIP out of a possible 20. Of these 25 players, the worst three were:

23) Roy Oswalt, 6-11, .545
24) Adam Wainwright, 5-10, .500
25) Brett Myers, 8-16, .500

The next step of this, which I’ll get into later in the week, deals with just how much the failed SHIP attempts (trying really hard to resist a dock or anchor or sea metaphor) effected the teams; some players may be handed a four-run lead and give up just one run whereas others will be given a four-run lead and give up four runs. Shutdown Innings do not tell us which pitchers are better but rather who sustains the momentum discussed by broadcasters most often.

When Omar Minaya traded Lastings Milledge to the Nationals this offseason, for Ryan Church and Brian Schneider, the heads of many New York fans began to spin. Don’t believe me? Check out some of these comments from a New York Times blog entry detailing the trade:

Wow. Worst. GM. in Baseball. What a joke. Kazmir part 2.— Posted by Tom

Great. The Mets have now inherited 25% of the starting lineup of one of the worst teams in baseball in return for a potential star. How could the combination of Schneider/Church conceivably be better for the Mets than the combination of Torealba/Milledge. Oh wait, Church is left handed. Comforting. 6 years older and below average at best, but at least he’s left handed. And then there is the Estrada trade. What the heck is Omar doing? — Posted by Mike C

This is an absolute disaster. They make decisions like “Must trade Milledge” and then settle for garbage in return instead of realizing that he’s better and cheaper than what they get in return. Schneider is toast and cost $5mm per. Church is ok, 29 year old. I hate myself for rooting for this doomed franchise. — Posted by Sauerball

I could show more but I live by the rule of three and think these responses clearly illustrate the frustration of Mets fans that this trade took place.

While the team is off to a slower-than-expected start, Ryan Church has performed so well that I’m sure at least some of the larger group of Mets fans represented in the aforementioned quotes have rescinded a bit. Church currently leads the Mets with 10.77 BRAA and a 0.67 WPA. His slash line of .310/.378/.478 accounts for the highest batting average on the team and second highest slugging percentage. He also leads the team in hits with 35 and runs participated in (RBI+R) with 45.

Despite posting a very high .373 BABIP, Church has actually been a tad unlucky based on his line drive rate. Lining the ball 28.7% of the time we would expect his BABIP to be near .400. Where is this coming from? Well, he is hitting virtually the same amount of grounders — 42.6 last year and 42.5 right now — but has turned six percent of his flyballs from a year ago into line drives.

Should he manage to keep up this torrid pace he would finish the season hitting .314/.384/.487, with 22 HR and 119 RBI. TangoTiger’s 2008 Marcel Projections pegged him for a respectable .274/.334/.465, with 15 HR and 65 RBI.

One factor not discussed much is how Church played in a notorious pitcher’s park the last three years. Whether or not the confines of Shea Stadium will truly benefit him is yet to be seen but, from what can be seen, without his production the Mets would likely be in panic mode.

With the hot starts of Chase Utley, Derrek Lee, and even Nate McLouth, Dodgers shortstop Rafael Furcal has posted tremendous numbers seemingly under the radar. Entering last night, Furcal had the 8th best OPS, 4th best OBP, and ranked behind just Utley and Chipper Jones in Runs Created. Even though we have only played one month, Furcal currently sports a slash line of .369/.453/.585, and has been a major force behind the Dodgers current surge.

What initially strikes me as odd is how he has virtually posted the same LD/GB/FB percentages as last year. In 2007 it was 18.7/49.7/31.6; this year it is currently 18.5/50.9/30.6. Based on his frequency of line drives his xBABIP is around the .300-.310 mark. While it met expectations at .298 last year, it is almost one-hundred points higher so far at .396.

Though his strikeout rate has stayed the same he is walking over four percent more often. In turn, he is seeing 3.95 pitches per plate appearance, more than the 3.69 in 2007 and 3.84 in 2006.

Luckily for Fangraphs fans, David recently added the swing data, which adds new avenues of exploration. Furcal is swinging at three percent less pitches outside of the zone, relative to last season, but is making contact three percent more often. His selectivity can be seen on an overall level, too, as he is swinging about five percent less at pitches inside the strike zone while maintaining his contact rate from a year ago; pitchers have also been throwing more in the zone to him.

Has something clicked? Will Furcal establish a new level of production? The signs tend to suggest he will not be this productive all season but, if he can remain selective and wait for “his pitch,” he may be able to sustain these contact rates.

While his likely regression will prevent him from an OPS over 1.000 come September it does not mean his season cannot continue to be stellar. He has been an integral part of a Dodgers team that has caught fire and it will be very interesting to see what happens to the success of the team if and when his flame begins to flicker.

After five innings of shutout work against the Dodgers on April 13th, Greg Maddux had won 349 games in his illustrious career. Since then, winning his 350th has proved to be quite difficult, as his last four starts have resulted in three losses and a no-decision. Even though one was a tough loss and his no-decision consisted of seven shutout innings, Maddux still sits on 349 wins. Seeing my idol fail to secure this milestone brought to mind what other pitchers struggled in recording wins milestones of their own.

The last pitcher to 350 was Roger Clemens, who did so with his third win last season. Prior to that 8 IP-2 H performance against the Twins, Clemens had failed in three consecutive starts to get to 350.

Nolan Ryan won 324 games in his career but #320 did not come easily. He won his 319th game in July of 1992 but then failed in TEN consecutive starts closing out the season (6 losses, 4 no-decision) to get his milestone. As fate would have it, he would get #320 in his first start of the 1993 season.

In an odd turn of events, Don Sutton lost his next start after winning his 319th game, but picked up #320 after going 4.1 IP in relief soonafter.

Phil Niekro won his 299th game in 1985 but missed out on #300 in four subsequent starts. He would win his 300th in the final start of that 1985 season.

It took Early Wynn six tries to get his 300th win and, unfortunately for him, these attempts spanned two years. After missing out in his final three 1962 starts, he could not win in his first three 1963 starts. I guess you could say his 300th win came…early…in the 1963 season. (Note – I apologize to pun-haters). He finally won his 300th in his fourth start in 1963, however it came with the ugly-in-1963 line of 5 IP, 6 H, 3 ER.

Maddux has struggled to win his 350th but, have no fear, he will reach this milestone even if it takes him a Nolan Ryan-esque ten attempts.