Clayton Kershaw received 27 of the 32 first place votes in the 2011 NL Cy Young Award balloting en route to his first major league award. He beat out all three of the Phillies horses — Roy Halladay finished second, with Cliff Lee third and Cole Hamels fifth — and Ian Kennedy to officially go down in the book as the best the National League had to offer this past season. But that isn’t necessarily true, and his case isn’t as shut and dry as all those first place votes make it seem.

It’s plausible to suggest that Roy Halladay and Cliff Lee were, at worst, Kershaw’s equals, and more likely than that his superiors. His winning the award is in no way a mockery, like it was when Bartolo Colon beat Johan in 2005, but it does feel like somewhat of a step back in the voting process. After Felix Hernandez won his award it sure seemed the voting body grasped that team context is important when evaluating players.

His wins total wasn’t up to par with traditional candidates, but voters understood that the Mariners offense was out of Felix’s control. He wasn’t penalized for perceived poor performance in a common performance indicator.

In the case of Kershaw v. Halladay v. Lee, a similar understanding wasn’t extended to strength of schedule and park effects. Kershaw deserves hearty congratulations, but his Cy Young Award win again illustrates the importance and utility of normalizing numbers. When adjusted numbers enter the fray, Lee emerges as a very viable candidate. Halladay steps forward as the best pitcher in the league, and by a long-shot. In our staff awards ballot, I did vote for Kershaw, but my stance has since changed. No matter how one chooses to slice it — unless they like slicing “it” incorrectly — Halladay was the best pitcher in the senior circuit this past season.

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The Florida Marlins have never been known for having deep pockets. The team never enters an offseason eyeing the top free agents in the class. The Marlins combine talented homegrown prospects with cheap stopgap solutions and, in most cases, deal their players away before they get very expensive.

This has been their modus operandi for years, which makes it all the more interesting that the team entered the 2011 offseason targeting Albert Pujols, Jose Reyes and Mark Buehrle, three of the top free agents available.

Signing all three might seem like a long shot, but the Marlins are in an interesting position with a new stadium, new uniforms and a different team name. The Miami Marlins are looking for a clean slate in 2012, and making an offseason splash is certainly a means to accomplishing that goal.

But can they really sign all three of these players? Will they sign any of them?

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Jayson Stark reported Thursday that the Phillies are kicking the tires on Grady Sizemore. The team also has interest in former Twins outfielder Jason Kubel. The news came on the heels of the Ryan Madson–Jonathan Papelbon hoopla and the Phillies’ meeting with another former Twins player, Michael Cuddyer.

The list of Philadelphia’s targets changes daily, but Kubel and Sizemore pique interest for various reasons. Sizemore is notable from a risk-versus-reward standpoint, since the Phillies’ current left fielder is John Mayberry — who works better as the right-handed half of a platoon; the team has clearly stated it prefers that Dom Brown remains in Triple A for the season. Kubel will be an interesting case study in terms of how teams value his breakout/outlying 2009 performance. Will he get paid handsomely, despite consecutive mediocre seasons?

Obviously, both players are risky for different reasons.

Sizemore, though, represents a good risk, since the potential reward is substantial. With Kubel, the likeliest scenario has a team paying $6 million to $7 million per year for a .335 wOBA, poor defense and below-average base-running.

In both cases, a heck of a lot has to work out to justify a team’s investment.

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Last season, Cliff Lee had seemingly narrowed his suitors down to the Rangers, Yankees and an unidentified team. About that time, some analysts began to approach his free agency differently.

Instead of analyzing average annual values — or where the deal ranked historically — folks began to calculate which of the two offers would give Lee the most profit, given the tax rates in New York and the lack of one in Texas. While the federal tax code is uniform, the rates across states and cities are wildly divergent. With that in mind, it stood to reason that Lee could conceivably take home more net compensation in a deal that, on the surface, appeared lesser in value than other offers.

Stories that marry together my careers — accountant and baseball analyst — are always intriguing. But I’ve noticed errors in these analyses. Primarily, the new-wave tax articles were ignoring the fact that Lee gets taxed in every city and in every state in which he plays.

This concept is nicknamed “the jock tax,” where states and cities tax non-resident athletes who earn income in their territories. This tax applies to everyone working in multiple states — but because athletes’ salaries are widely known, and team schedules are common knowledge, it’s easy for taxing authorities to apply the tax to athletes.

For more of a history lesson on “the jock tax,” peruse my first article on the subject. But instead of digging deep into the history, we’ll summarize its importance, explain how it impacts this free-agent class and discuss a nifty tool I created that analyzes these transactions.

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The Phillies wasted little time in making its first move of the offseason, signing Jim Thome to a one-year deal worth $1.25 million. With just those details, and no specifics about his potential playing time or role, it’s still a fantastic move. Even with added details it’s difficult to find any flaws in a minimal commitment to an offensive force.

He may be 41 years old, but his numbers are still impressive. Since 2008, he has posted the following wOBAs: .370, .367, .437, .362. The man can still rake, and he gives the Phillies a legitimate bench power threat. While it’s tough to fault an 102-win team that played all five games of the Division Series, the 2011 squad was certainly lacking power off the bench. Ross Gload had the hips of a 70-year old man and redundancy was abound with Michael Martinez and Wilson Valdez. Thome can now serve as the left-handed power pinch-hitter as well as the designated hitter in interleague games. And given the Phillies championship aspirations, some smidgen of the rationale for making this move involves his potential role in the World Series.

The move also satisfies fans from a nostalgic point of view.

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Rafael Furcal is sitting pretty right about now.

While Jose Reyes and Jimmy Rollins are clearly the top two free agent shortstops, each player carries a significant amount of risk. Furcal isn’t free and clear of the risks associated with either player, but he’ll prove significantly less expensive.

Reyes’s inability to stay on the field — he played in 295 of the possible 486 games since 2009 — eats away at his value. If teams aren’t convinced he has adequately recovered from his recent ailments, they are less likely to dole out an iconic type of contract. The talent is obvious, and at 28 years old he is still in his prime. But what good is paying $16+ million per year for the next 4-6 years if he can’t stay on the field?

Rollins, meanwhile, expects to sign a lucrative 3-4 year deal. Sure, he expressed a desire for a five-year contract because, hey, who wouldn’t want that type of deal. But he knows it’s unlikely. Rollins’s performance has been hindered by injuries of late, but his 2011 numbers marked a return to form to his 2004-06 self, the player that produced 4.5-5 WAR. He’s an elite defender at the most important position, a top-notch baserunner, and a league average hitter capable of knocking the ball out of the yard. These players don’t grow on trees, but Rollins is also 33 years old.

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According to Jordan Bastian of MLB.com, the Indians are expected to decline the $9 million 2012 option on Grady Sizemore. The Tribe is also expected to exercise the $7 million 2012 option on Fausto Carmona. Bringing back Carmona is considerably less risky than exercising Sizemore’s option, however, taken together, the transactions tandem speaks to the Indians evaluation of risk and reward.

Is the team making the right choices with these two longtime employees?

The kneejerk reaction with Sizemore is to pan the organization. How could they decline a relatively low-valued option for a player who averaged close to 7 WAR from 2005-08? At $9 million, even an injury-prone Sizemore would seem worth the risk because the reward is substantial. By declining his option, the team is effectively saying one of two things: that it would rather pay him $500,000 for the right to bring him back on an even lesser deal, or that it thinks so little of his long-term health and performance prospects that it’s unlikely he hovers around the league average moving forward.

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Wow.

That’s all I could muster as it became clear that David Freese’s flyball to center was leaving the yard. Just wow.

There have been numerous good playoff games and some great World Series games, but what took place Thursday night existed on an entirely different plane. It’s always tough to gauge the historic status of something so recent, but calling Game Six of the 2011 World Series one of the best baseball games in history just feels right.

The World Series is somehow, some way, going to a seventh and final game Friday night after twists and turns galore. For seven innings, the game was defined by missed opportunities and blunders both physical and managerial. After that, the game was defined by the old adage you can’t predict baseball.

In the end, Freese, who tied the game in the ninth with a two-out, two-strike, two-run triple knocked the ball out of the yard in the 11th to seal the deal. However, what transpired over the previous few innings foreshadowed a crazy finish. Freese’s home run wasn’t even shocking. Of course that happened. But various circumstances had to be present for the Cardinals to even have a shot at knotting up the game and winning it in extras. Here are some of Thursday night’s highlights that led to such a wild ending.

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Following a peculiar fifth game in which each manager engaged in a losing oneupsmanship contest, the Rangers head to St. Louis for a potential deciding Game Six. After splitting the first two games on the road and taking two of three at home, the Rangers are obviously closer to winning the World Series. However, the Cardinals do have home field advantage in their favor once again, and under somewhat comical circumstances given the performances of other playoff teams in the All-Star Game. The Cardinals have home field, after all, due to Prince Fielder (Brewers) belting a mammoth homer off of C.J. Wilson (Rangers) in a game held in Arizona, while two Phillies pitchers did a good job holding the junior circuit at bay for four innings.

The pitching matchup is a repeat of Game Two, with Jaime Garcia opposed by Colby Lewis. The Cardinals took a 1-0 lead in the seventh in that game behind a very strong Garcia performance. He didn’t allow a run over seven innings, surrendering just three hits and a walk to go along with his seven strikeouts. Lewis matched him, giving up just the one run in 6 2/3 innings. The bullpen game was won by the Rangers, though the deciding factor was the Rangers excellent baserunning, with some credit owed to the defensive miscue on Jon Jay’s throw to the plate.

There are a few main storylines to consider heading into what could potentially be the final game of the 2011 postseason and a very exciting World Series. Oddly enough, only one of them deals with actual participating players.

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For those who fell asleep after the eighth inning, the Cardinals are not heading to Texas with a 2-0 series lead. The Rangers managed just three hits through seven innings before mounting a ninth-inning comeback in a rather unusual manner.

Ian Kinsler singled to open the frame and subsequently stole second base. The play was extremely close, but Kinsler’s hand appeared to touch the base a split second before the tag was applied. In real time, however, the quick tag after a tremendous throw looked to have gotten Kinsler. Kudos to the umpires for getting the call right in spite of the dramatic tag designed to obscure their perception of the play.

Elvis Andrus lined a single to center, sending Kinsler to third. Andrus advanced to second on a missed cutoff/missed catch error, putting runners at second and third with nobody out. The previously lifeless Rangers had a pulse, and with Josh Hamilton, Michael Young and Adrian Beltre due up, odds were slim that the Cardinals would escape the frame sans-damage.

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