Early Thursday afternoon, Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News reported that the Texas Rangers were working on a long-term deal with starter Derek Holland. As an unabashed fan of Derek Holland (yes, despite his performance against the Rays in the playoffs) and a loather of all things having to do with the Rangers (the playoffs may have something to do with this), this news caused conflicting emotions to simultaneously flit across my mind. Sweet, great move locking him up! Arg, but why does it have to be the Rangers?

I’m getting ahead of myself, though. Why is locking up Holland a great move? If you take a cursory glance over his statistics, you’ll notice he had an impressive 2011 season: 3.95 ERA, 3.86 SIERA, 3.6 WAR. It was a breakout year for Holland, but it’s not exactly an unexpected development. He has dominant stuff — a 94 MPH fastball with plus movement, a hard slider that destroys lefties, and a changeup and curveball for attacking righties — and he was a top ranked prospect when coming up through the minors. He’s durable, throwing 198 innings last season, and he’s a mere 25 years old.

Also, it’s worth considering that Holland improved dramatically over the second half of 2011. As I noted during the playoffs:

He started off the year posting a 6.7 K/9 and 3.4 BB/9, but over his final 14 starts, he posted a 3.06 ERA while increasing his strikeout rate (8.2 per nine) and dropping his walk rate (2.7 per nine).

It’s difficult to say how much of those improvements Holland will carry over into 2012, but over the tail end of last season, he was arguably as good or better than C.J. Wilson. The Rangers have resigned themselves to losing Wilson in free agency, but they just might have the next Wilson already on their roster.

But since the terms of the agreement haven’t been released yet, what should we expect? How much will Holland get in this deal? That question is a lot easier to answer than you’d imagine.

Read the rest of this entry »

According to John Heyman (now at CBS Sports, apparently), Nick Punto has agreed to a 2 year, $3.0 million deal with the Boston Red Sox. The deal will also include $500k in incentives.

So remember that news earlier today about the Red Sox trading away Jed Lowrie to the Astros for reliever Mark Melancon? Now that all begins to make some sense. It’s not that trading Lowrie for Melancon was a bad deal for the Red Sox, as they were trading from a position of strength and they acquired a dominant reliever that should help the back end of their bullpen. It just…something didn’t feel right. It wasn’t like the Red Sox to trade away a young position player with upside for a reliever. It was an okay deal, but I’m used to seeing more from the Red Sox.

By signing Punto, though, everything comes into focus.

Read the rest of this entry »

For one moment, picture yourself in the Miami Marlins’ shoes. You have run a cruelly efficient organization over the past 18 years – emphasis on the “cruel” – and as a result, you’ve managed to alienate a large portion of your local fanbase. The common narrative surrounding your team is that you’re profit-driven and ruthless, and the current SEC investigation into your new stadium’s funding isn’t helping matters any. Your attendance has been among the worst in the majors since 1999, and things were so bad last season you had to close to upper deck partway through the year.

Finally, though, you want to change all that. You have a new stadium, new uniforms, and a new name, and MLB has given you a not-so-subtle kick in the pants recently to spend more money. You have few financial commitments past the 2013 season, and you expect to see an increase in revenue over the next few years as a result of your new stadium’s attendance booster shot.

Given this situation, how do you create a successful, sustainable franchise in the state of Florida? The common assumption is that you’d approach the situation much like you would anywhere else: invest money in the team, build a winner, and don’t overreach your arm. As long as you make steady progress, the fans will respond.

But in case you haven’t noticed already, the Marlins have chosen a different plan of attack. Instead of staying within their means, the Marlins are acting with reckless abandon. They have already signed Heath Bell and Jose Reyes to long-term deals, locking up $19 million in payroll for 2012, and they’re in on nearly every big name free agent. With their new stadium set to open this season and bring in a wave of revenue, the Marlins are the kids in the candyshop that just got their allowance and are impulsively buying everything in sight.

Is this a risky strategy? Oh, definitely. The Marlins are already getting called all sorts of ugly names by analysts – idiotic, short-sighted, etc. – but at the same time, this is a risk they have to take.

Read the rest of this entry »

Thanks to Josh Frank for the photoshop.

Earlier this morning, news broke that the Tampa Bay Rays had signed top pitching prospect Matt Moore to a rather unbelievable contract: 5 years, $14 million guaranteed with three team options that could bring the total value up to $40 million. Yes, you’re reading that right; the Rays just signed one of the best pitching prospects in all of baseball to a deal that could keep him in Tampa Bay (at a very affordable price, mind you) until he’s 30 years old.

Say it with me now: “Matt Moore, you just got Friedman’d.”

Read the rest of this entry »

As of this writing  — and the way news is breaking right now, this could be outdated in anywhere from twelve hours to twelve seconds — the market for C.J. Wilson still stands at two teams: the Angels and Marlins. The common assumption was that the Marlins would pull out of the Wilson sweepstakes after landing Mark Buehrle last this afternoon, but at the moment, they have left their six-year offer on the table. Considering that the Marlins were willing to commit $220 million to Albert Pujols, it appears that a mere $58 million deal is not going to prevent them from jumping back in on another big-name free agent — especially when the trade market for starting pitchers is so steep.

With Buehrle off the market,it begins to get a bit easier to make some estimates on how much C.J. Wilson will get paid. The FanGraphs crowd-sourcing project had originally pegged Wilson as signing a 5 year, $15.5 million/year contract, but the Marlins have thrown a wrench in everything by giving Buehrle a contract with an AAV of $14.5 million. Since Buehrle was considered the second best pitcher on the market behind Wilson, it follows that Wilson should get a considerable amount more than that and will likely surpass his FanGraphs estimates. Then again, it seems unlikely that he approaches Roy Halladay’s deal from last offseason ($20m AAV) or surpass Jered Weaver’s current deal ($17m AAV).

Here’s where things get interesting to me: if the Marlins sign Wilson as well as Buehrle, they’ll then have two left-handed starters locked up through their age 36 season. If we assume that Wilson gets paid around $17 million/year (and we know Buehrle will receive $14.5m/year), which deal looks the best?

Read the rest of this entry »

When the Miami Marlins signed Heath Bell to a three year, $27 million contract Thursday night, the reaction on Twitter was…well, do I even need to tell you? It’s like clockwork; some team signs Proven Closer X to an expensive contract, and the sabermetric Twitterverse nigh explodes with negativity and snark. All this has happened before. All this will happen again.*

While the standard critique of this signing rings true — Why bother paying a premium for closers? Especially when relievers are so fungible and unpredictable?  — there was a side argument that especially piqued my curiosity. The Marlins are now committing $9 million per year into one reliever, but wouldn’t they have been better served trying to sign young slugger Mike Stanton to an extension? They could have use the money that went into signing Bell and locked Stanton up for a considerable amount of time instead. Considering Stanton is one of the best and most exciting young players in baseball, that’s an attractive option.

So I’m curious. Does the Heath Bell contract preclude the Marlins from locking up Stanton? If the Marlins were to engage Stanton in discussions about a long-term contract, what would the deal look like? Let’s find out.

*Kudos to all you fellow nerds that got that reference. I’m currently five episodes away from completing Season 4 of Battlestar Galactica. Frak, I don’t want it to finish.

Read the rest of this entry »

It appears that despite the move to the Windy City, Theo Epstein hasn’t lost his touch. In his first move since joining the Cubs as their General Manager President of Baseball Operations, Epstein signed* David DeJesus to a two year, $10 million contract today. The contract also has an option for a third year.

Just by taking a glance at DeJesus’ player page, it’s easy to fall in love with this deal. DeJesus is no star outfielder and his name doesn’t conjure up images of diving catches or towering home runs, but he’s a quietly productive and underrated player. He’s no whiz with the bat — .277/.349/.417 line over the last three years, which translates to a .334 wOBA and 5% above average — but he makes up for it by being an above average baserunner and defensive outfielder. DeJesus played the majority of the 2011 season in right field for the Athletics, and depending on what defensive stat you trust most, he was anywhere from a +10 to +13 fielder out there. He had one of his worst seasons at the plate last year — .309 wOBA, 5% below average — but even then, he managed to be a 2.2 WAR player in right.

So on the face of things, the Cubs just got a great deal. They signed an average outfielder to a below-market rate contract — they’re paying him like he’s a 1.0 WAR outfielder, essentially — and they filled their hole in right field. They also improved their team overall, as DeJesus is an improvement over 34-years-old-and-sinking-fast Kosuke Fokudome.

But this deal also raises two interesting questions. Considering he had such a rough offensive year in 2011 and he’ll be 32-years-old in 2012, should the Cubs be worried about his bat? And what does this deal mean about top prospect Brett Jackson?

*Good catch, everyone. Jed Hoyer is technically the GM for the Cubs right now. Whoops, my bad.

Read the rest of this entry »

There have been many, many words written about the new CBA already, and the common consensus seems to be that two new provisions — the draft tax and hard cap on international signings — will impact competitive balance in baseball. By preventing teams from investing heavily in acquiring young talent, it will theoretically make it more difficult for small market teams to compete with large market teams, while also driving some young players away from baseball and into college or other sports. Dave Cameron explained this all yesterday, so check out his piece if you want further explanation.

This argument rests on one assumption, though: that small market teams spend more money on acquiring players through the draft than large market teams. Technically, since large market teams have huge revenue streams, couldn’t they also be pumping lots of money into the draft, using their late first round picks to sign top players to overslot deals? Why wouldn’t the smart front offices exploit their monetary advantage in every way possible?

So after the jump, you’ll find a two charts. The chart on the left lists the total amount of money invested by each team in the amateur draft from 2007-2011, and the chart on the right lists the amount of money each franchise spent on international signings in 2010. All the data comes from Baseball America, so a huge hat tip to them for the help.

I’ve divided teams into one of three categories: large market, mid market, or small market. The large market teams are the ones that baseball will declare ineligible for revenue sharing sometime before 2016 (excluding obvious smaller market teams like the Blue Jays, Nationals, Astros, and A’s). The distinction I drew between mid market and small market is entirely subjective — so please, feel free to suggest improvements there — but I wanted to draw a distinction between teams like the Rays and Tigers.

Read the rest of this entry »

While the MVP award announcements are normally used as an opportunity to make snide comments and question the intelligence of writers, I prefer to think of them a different way. We know that we’ll never be able to convert everyone to sabermetrics, and there are always going to be one or two people that make questionable decisions on their ballots. Instead of focusing our attention on them, why not move that focus back to where it’s supposed to be: the players.

The MVP award (and the subsequent conversation surrounding it) is a chance for us to recognize players for having impressive, noteworthy years. Twenty-three players received a vote during this year’s AL MVP voting, but there were still more out there that had seasons worth remembering. These players aren’t necessarily “snubs”, since each player in the MVP voting also deserved recognition for their seasons; it’s simply there are sometimes more players doing exceptional things than can be highlighted.

So even if the BBWAA missed these players, let’s give a few of them the spotlight they deserve.

Read the rest of this entry »

To everyone’s surprise, the newly christened Miami Marlins have been one of the hottest teams on the free agent market so far. They’re interested in nearly every high profile free agent, and it seems likely that they’ll increase their payroll significantly this offseason and bring in at least one big name. Recent rumors have suggested that they aren’t actually considered likely suitors for Albert Pujols, and they may not have offered Jose Reyes $90 million…but still, they are going to land someone this offseason. After this start to the offseason, they need to or else risk their fanbase turning fickle on them again.

When evaluating new acquisitions, one of the most important — yet often overlooked — parts of projecting performance is park effects. Every ballpark plays slightly differently, and players can see big changes in their year-to-year performance based on where they play their home games. Is a player spending half his games in hitter friendly Arlington, or are they in the pitchers haven of PETCO Park? To the vast majority of you out there, this is old news.

But here’s where things get interesting: the Marlins are opening their new stadium next season, and we have no idea how it will perform. It could be a pitcher’s park, could be a hitter’s park — who knows? This added uncertainty makes evaluating their (potential) free agent acquisitions even more difficult. Why bother paying large money for a right-handed slugger if your stadium suppresses right-handed power considerably? It’s tough to tailor your team to your park if you don’t know how your park will perform.

Even if we don’t know exactly how the Marlins’ new stadium will perform, though, we can make some educated guesses. To the Bat Cave!

Read the rest of this entry »