Ball-in-Play Leaders and Laggards: American League Hitters

The holidays are upon us, and transactional activity is about to take a short hiatus, if history is a guide. (Though I do remember Jeff Suppan signing as a free agent on Christmas Eve when I was with the Brewers, but I digress.) Just some fun data for readers to chew on as they sip their beverage of choice over the next few of days.

Today, let’s take a look at the 2014 offensive ball-in-play (BIP) frequency and production leaders and laggards in the American League. Sometime around New Year’s, we’ll check out the NL. Caution: there is a fairly healthy dose of Danny Santana information to follow. Continue at your own risk.

Below are the top and bottom-10 American Leaguers in popup, fly-ball, line-drive and ground-ball percentage, for hitters with a minimum of 215 total balls in play last season:

	POP %			FLY %			LD %			GB %
C.Carter	16.72%		Zunino	42.08%		Loney	28.02%		Aoki	60.51%
Reddick	15.56%		Lowrie	39.22%		De Aza	27.73%		Kendrick	58.86%
Dozier	14.38%		Castellanos	38.70%		Avila	27.16%		Jeter	58.17%
Cespedes	14.19%		Forsythe	37.99%		Calhoun	26.59%		Suzuki	57.72%
Moustakas	13.71%		Vogt	37.82%		Castellanos	26.23%		Eaton	55.96%
S.Perez	13.66%		Moss	37.54%		B.Holt	26.14%		Andrus	55.51%
Gillaspie	13.30%		Jaso	36.91%		Fowler	25.71%		J.Jones	53.02%
C.Santana	13.07%		JD.Martinez	36.48%		Freese	25.48%		Kiermaier	52.94%
Encarnacion	12.73%		Pearce	35.95%		J.Abreu	25.45%		Ma.Gonzalez	52.27%
Bautista	11.91%		McCann	35.93%		Mauer	25.14%		Martin	50.88%
————–	———–		————–	———–		————–	———–		————–	———–
A.Jackson	3.39%		B.Holt	22.73%		Solarte	17.77%		Cespedes	31.88%
Aoki	3.04%		Me.Cabrera	22.18%		Flaherty	17.73%		Pearce	31.82%
B.Holt	2.84%		L.Martin	21.66%		Joyce	17.53%		B.Roberts	31.78%
Choo	2.80%		Jeter	21.44%		Myers	17.47%		Castellanos	30.65%
Brantley	2.56%		J.Jones	20.00%		Schoop	17.35%		Moss	30.60%
Freese	2.26%		Eaton	18.65%		Donaldson	17.32%		Vogt	30.57%
Bourn	2.19%		Andrus	18.38%		Gordon	17.30%		Reddick	29.57%
Jeter	1.70%		Kendrick	18.14%		Kiermaier	17.25%		Zunino	28.96%
Kendrick	1.69%		Suzuki	15.07%		Beckham	17.23%		Lowrie	28.83%
Mauer	0.85%		Aoki	14.72%		Kinsler	17.06%		C.Carter	28.76%
————–	———–		————–	———–		————–	———–		————–	———–
AVG	8.06%			28.65%			21.11%			42.19%

Let’s handle the frequency data relatively quickly, as the real fun is in the production data. We would certainly all agree that, from a hitter’s perspective, a popup is a very bad thing. After all, major league hitters batted .015 AVG-.019 SLG on them last year. Despite this, some very good hitters have high popup rates. They swing hard, and quite often, popups and Ks are the price you have to pay for the corresponding production. Blue Jays Edwin Encarnacion and Jose Bautista are two prime examples, and both have actually seen their popup totals trend downward as they have improved as all-around hitters in recent seasons.

What you don’t like to see are hitters like Salvador Perez and Conor Gillaspie, to name two, on the popup leaderboard. There isn’t enough reward accompanying the risk; I see Perez as this era’s Tony Pena, an exceptional defensive receiver with some good offensive seasons early, ultimately evolving into a glove-only player. The popup laggards who actually hit the ball hard on occasion — the Choos, Brantleys, Kendricks and Mauers, in particular — are well positioned to hit for average deep into their decline phases, as they give away relatively few “free” outs.

We can talk about the fly- and ground-ball leaders and laggards in tandem, as many players are on both lists. A relatively low number of AL regulars, 15 in 2013, hit more fly balls than grounders. Those players on the whole collapsed from a cumulative OPS+ of 118 in 2013 to 92 in 2014, with only one player’s performance improving. There were 16 such regression candidates in the AL in 2014, and the nine most extreme among them — all but J.D. Martinez — are on the top-ten fly-ball list.

The fly-ball laggards, by definition, have limited offensive upsides. Elvis Andrus isn’t going to become the offensive player the Rangers paid for if he never hits the ball in the air with any authority. Melky Cabrera will be a very interesting case to watch this season. He is moving to one of the most fly ball-friendly ballparks in the majors, but will he hit enough fly balls to be able to truly take advantage?

Then there’s the line-drive percentage leaders and laggards, which are much more random on a year-to-year basis. Line-drive rates are much more variable from season to season, but in any given year, they can create fluky career years and “off” seasons. Some players, like James Loney and Joe Mauer, churn out high liner rates on a seasonal basis. Jose Abreu and Kole Calhoun have limited track records, but they too appear to potentially be the types of players who can at least come close to repeating their performance in this category going forward. Alex Avila? Brock Holt, even Nick Castellanos? I wouldn’t bet on it. Avila strikes out constantly, Holt is a grounder machine in a park that rewards fly ballers, and Castellanos also has his extremely high fly-ball rate working against him. I’m not very bullish on those three for 2015.

Then you have the liner laggards. A low liner rate in the midst of a solid overall season legitimizes that performance. Alex Gordon, a line-drive laggard in 2014? What happens if he simply raises his liner rate to league average, and keeps everything else the same? Ditto Josh Donaldson. Wil Myers has now been limited by a poor liner rate in both of his MLB seasons. Is that who he is, or is stabilization in his liner rate, along with his wrist, all that’s holding him back?

Without further ado, let’s delve into the production by BIP type data. For each major BIP type, each leader and laggard’s AVG and SLG is listed, as well as their production relative to the league average for that BIP type, scaled to 100:

	FLY AVG	FLY SLG	REL FLY			LD AVG	LD SLG	REL LD
J.Abreu	0.510	1.633	441		Pearce	0.855	1.273	186
C.Carter	0.422	1.441	328		Iannetta	0.821	1.282	179
Arcia	0.432	1.272	284		D.Santana	0.767	1.183	155
Encarnacion	0.381	1.305	269		Joyce	0.815	1.074	151
Rasmus	0.419	1.210	261		Flowers	0.774	1.113	148
JD.Martinez	0.420	1.188	255		N.Cruz	0.720	1.161	143
C.Davis	0.375	1.250	251		Lind	0.750	1.104	142
Napoli	0.419	1.140	242		B.Miller	0.740	1.100	139
Dunn	0.402	1.126	231		Beltre	0.778	1.028	138
Bautista	0.377	1.162	229		Reddick	0.755	1.038	135
————–	———–	———–	———–		————–	———–	———–	———–
Infante	0.188	0.398	36		Lowrie	0.598	0.717	75
J.Bradley	0.189	0.392	36		Vogt	0.585	0.732	75
Jeter	0.178	0.386	33		Teixeira	0.609	0.688	74
Andrus	0.200	0.347	33		Aoki	0.559	0.742	72
Y.Escobar	0.176	0.361	31		Aybar	0.559	0.735	71
Aviles	0.182	0.299	26		Freese	0.570	0.709	70
Eaton	0.167	0.319	26		Andrus	0.560	0.706	69
Aoki	0.159	0.286	22		Dv.Murphy	0.551	0.710	68
Sogard	0.155	0.259	19		Callaspo	0.569	0.638	65
Suzuki	0.146	0.244	17		Calhoun	0.510	0.646	57
————–	———–	———–	———–		————–	———–	———–	———–
AVG	0.281	0.719	100			0.664	0.880	100

 

	GB AVG	GB SLG	REL GB			BIP AVG	BIP SLG	REL BIP
D.Santana	0.353	0.397	210		JD.Martinez	0.432	0.760	200
Trout	0.346	0.392	203		Trout	0.405	0.792	196
Lind	0.352	0.371	199		J.Abreu	0.412	0.756	190
Hardy	0.343	0.376	194		Pearce	0.372	0.713	161
A.Jones	0.341	0.367	189		D.Santana	0.416	0.617	156
Norris	0.336	0.369	187		C.Carter	0.345	0.729	154
Gillaspie	0.333	0.373	186		Rasmus	0.356	0.708	154
Cain	0.331	0.373	185		Flowers	0.390	0.643	152
Vogt	0.339	0.356	184		Mi.Cabrera	0.379	0.637	147
Altuve	0.325	0.376	182		N.Cruz	0.349	0.676	144
————–	———–	———–	———–		————–	———–	———–	———–
Moustakas	0.160	0.183	44		J.Bradley	0.287	0.385	68
Arcia	0.160	0.173	42		Dominguez	0.269	0.415	68
Kipnis	0.150	0.168	38		Beckham	0.265	0.411	66
Dunn	0.157	0.157	38		K.Morales	0.265	0.411	66
Zunino	0.147	0.160	35		Jeter	0.294	0.356	65
Avila	0.135	0.156	32		Moustakas	0.249	0.428	65
Teixeira	0.137	0.153	32		Infante	0.280	0.376	65
Swisher	0.143	0.143	31		Aviles	0.275	0.376	63
McCann	0.137	0.137	29		Callaspo	0.251	0.327	51
C.Davis	0.129	0.140	27		Sogard	0.250	0.300	47
————–	———–	———–	———–		————–	———–	———–	———–
	0.247	0.269	100			0.325	0.507	100

First, it should be noted that SH and SF are counted as outs for the purposes of this presentation, so the figures above do not 100% line up with actual 2014 BABIP.

Let’s start with the fly-ball production table, which has the fewest surprises, and is likely the most directly tied to player talent. The leader list contains some of the premier ball impacters in the game, and Mike Trout just missed the top ten. Perhaps the most interesting inclusions are Oswaldo Arcia, a significant 2015 breakout candidate if he can make more consistent contact; Chris Davis, despite his significant decline from the previous season; and the thoroughly mediocre Adam Dunn. This underscores the fly ball-friendly nature of US Cellular Field, as the nine others on this list hit the ball materially harder in the air. Based on hard and soft fly-ball rates, I assigned players a fly-ball authority score from 88 to 110. Dunn’s was 103, the lowest of this group; Abreu’s 106, interestingly, is tied for 6th. Their home park was their very close friend.

Among fly-ball laggards, Jackie Bradley, Jr., stands out among a sea of slap hitters. His fly-ball authority score was actually 102 (only one other player among the laggards, Yunel Escobar, was above 95) last season, and he played his home games in a park even more friendly to fly balls than US Cellular. He simply hasn’t yet learned to use the Green Monster. Minor adjustments, and more contact in general, could make Bradley a very interesting offensive player.

Line-drive performance is loosely based on talent, in comparison; there is an awful lot of luck involved here. The liner authority score scale ranges from 90 to 107, and the two players who achieved the top score — Jose Bautista and Josh Donaldson — aren’t among the top-ten producers. Steve Pearce’s career year was largely driven by his outlandish performance on liners. And then there’s Danny Santana, of whom we shall speak quite a bit over the remainder of this piece. He is the only line-drive leader to have a sub-100 liner authority score (95). Sure, he’s fast, and that will earn him the extra base here and there, but his massive production on liners is largely luck-based.

On the flip side, there are three 2014 Oakland A’s on the liner-production laggard list. That’s bad luck. Then there’s Calhoun, who’s among the liner frequency leaders, but ranked dead last in the AL in liner production. That should positively regress moving forward.

Sitting atop the ground-ball production leaders is our good friend Danny Santana. His speed should work to his advantage in this department, but should he be the most productive AL hitter on ground balls? I would think not. The grounder authority scale ranges from 90 to 114, and he again sits way down toward the low end, at 95, one of only three of the ground-ball leaders below 100. What are slow, righty hitters like J.J. Hardy and Derek Norris doing on this leaderboard? Their grounder performance puffed up their overall numbers in 2014, and is ripe for regression in 2015.

The ground-ball laggard list is largely populated by dead pull, weak roll-over contact guys, most of whom are lefthanded. Mike Zunino is a very interesting case. He is the lone true righty among the grounder laggards, and his overall profile stands out in many other ways. He hits more fly balls than anyone, is about the most dead-pull hitter in the league, is at the top of the strikeout and bottom of the walk scale, and had a miserable .254 OBP despite leading the league in hit by pitches. He is a strong defensive receiver, and even a half season at Triple-A to focus on his bat shortcomings could have turned him into a monster. The big leagues is an awfully tough place to make the necessary adjustments.

At the bottom right are the overall BIP leaders in laggards, essentially your BABIP rankings for 2014. The overall BIP authority score scale runs from 89 to 110. Only two players on the overall leader list have an authority score below 103 — US Cellular dweller Tyler Flowers (101), and good old Danny Santana (93). Please, please purge Santana’s actual 2014 performance from your mind when attempting to project his value moving forward. He’s a nice multipositional, speed-based utility piece, but he’s as close to a slam-dunk massive regression candidate as I’ve seen in recent seasons. To a lesser extent, JD Martinez and Steve Pearce, reasonably authoritative hitters now established as solid complementary bats, are pretty clear bets to regress somewhat in 2015.

Among the laggards, I like Bradley the most moving forward. He plays quality defense at a skill position, and his 2014 numbers were undermined by subpar production on fly balls despite reasonable authority, in a park that typically pumps up fly ball performance. He was a pretty unlucky guy. It remains to be seen how he’ll fit into the Red Sox overall plan, but the guess here is that he’ll be much better the next time around.

Best wishes to one and all for a happy, healthy holiday season. May your plates, cups and stockings be full, your BABIP be strong, and may your club be relevant deep into next September.