Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat – 3/31/25

Ben Clemens: Hey everybody, let’s chat

Some kinda Mook: Ben, I’ve been waiting to ask one of y’all: Several FanGraphs writers have been doing the “(complimentary)” bit lately somewhere in their articles. Was this a coordinated thing? An editor thing? Completely coincidental? The people need to know!

Ben Clemens: Probably coincidental. I’ve been doing it because I have seen it more on the internet and think it’s funny

Idiotic Failson: Fun fact – The Pirates are the first team to get walked off in their first 3 games since…the Pirates 101 years ago.

Ben Clemens: That’s kind of delightful

diadem: What is the outlook for Hye Seong Kim?  Utility IF? Full time 2b pushing Edman to the OF?  Flat out bust?

Ben Clemens: I’ve got utility infielder as most likely outcome with wide error bars

CFH: Maybe an Eric question, but for Jurrangelo Cijntje, is hedging dependence on either arm staying healthy at least as much of an advantage as the platoon thing over his career?

Ben Clemens: probably an Eric question. But I’ll note that Eric had a cool idea in his top 100 update today: use him as a righty starter and lefty reliever

MisterMet: Two catcher league: Alejandro Kirk or Hunter Goodman?  And Justin Martinez of Luke Jackson?  Thanks!

Ben Clemens: I’m on Kirk but I’ve been high on Kirk before, so take that as you will

Pat: Watched most of Detroit vs LAD this weekend. Didn’t feel like Detroit played poorly, but, the Ohtani/Betts/Freeman/Teoscar meat grinder is so tough, then you have Edman/Smith/Muncy, etc..one mistake & it’s a HR.If they stay healthy, I feel 110+ wins in likely.

Ben Clemens: Yeah, oh my goodness the Dodgers are good

Ben Clemens: I mean, they were hitting well too. I think that when the Dodgers are all on, they’re hard to beat

Tim: How many more injuries do I wait out for Josh Jung before I say “let him be someone else’s problem” and move on? I’ve had him since 2020 and want to see it out but it’s been sooo frustrating…and I’m not even him!

Ben Clemens: Man, poor Jung. He’s just been snakebitten in the majors

Ben Clemens: I’m getting worried that he’ll just never be the same. I hope I’m wrong

Tell me why I’m wrong: The royals won 86 games last year with a 10 war season from Bobby and 4 starters making every turn through the rotation and doing so productively. Why would I think they could repeat that this year? Some Vinnie P upside?

Ben Clemens: Yeah Vinny P being better, Maybe Jac tears through the minors, India making the lineup better, some better bullpen performance perhaps?

Baseball: Should the Yankee franchise be contracted over the torpedo bat scandal? Or would vacating their wins and banning all involved for life be enough of a punishment?

Dan: How come I never heard of torpedo bats before this week?

Ben Clemens: Because “someone is using a bat that’s shaped a little differently” is not a fun story but “The Yankees are cheating” is

Phil: What % of the Yankees offensive explosion is due to their torpedo bats, what % is due to the Brewers’ pitching, and what % is just the baseline Yankees’ skill?

Ben Clemens: I’m on like…. 70, 28, 2

Ben Clemens: stop it with the obsession with these bats, c’mon

md: What are your thoughts on the Braves getting one-hit and generally looking uninspiring this weekend?

Ben Clemens: Good thing the season didn’t end yesterday

Henry Dodger: Did you get to watch any of deGrom’s start? The line looked deGrom-esque, but how did he look?

Ben Clemens: Stay tuned tomorrow!

Ben Clemens: I’m writing about his start

Alex Anthopoulos: What’s real and what’s just small sample size noise about the Braves 0-4 start?

Ben Clemens: Okay, real is that they are 0-4

Ben Clemens: those weren’t made up

Ben Clemens: small sample size noise? the statlines of every player on both sides of the series

Nervous in PA: What’s going on with Oneil Cruz? Think he’s changed his approach or is it too early to tell?

Ben Clemens: too early to tell

Ben Clemens: I can’t even do Dan’s “April!” bit because it’s still March

TomBruno23: So…the Cardinals are…good?

Ben Clemens: My dad called me yesterday and we talked about this for a while

Ben Clemens: I mean… no probably? the pitching is not good

Ben Clemens: but you have to be encouraged by the early performances against reasonable opposing pitching

Jonah: Who are some players you’ve meaningfully changed your evaluation on through 3-4 games?  Easy to overreact to the small sample but are there any who’ve risen or fallen in your eyes from this weekend’s games?

Ben Clemens: i mean, none

Ben Clemens: that’s not a good way to be an analyst

Ben Clemens: it’d be pitchers if anyone but, no, i need more than this many games

Bosoxforlife: Pat beat me to it but it is going to take a lot more than I have seen so far to make me take down my belief that the Dodgers are going to win 110+. A .700 winning percentage looks very achievable with so many weak teams in the game now.

Ben Clemens: Interestingly, I’m not sure I agree with you about so many weak teams given how many finished .500 or better last year. But there are more VERY bad teams (Rockies, Marlins in the NL), so maybe that’ll help. Also the Dodgers are just great, and the obvious threat to them is injury

md: Ben – thanks to you and the rest of the FG staff for the work recently, honestly awesome output to kick the season off

Ben Clemens: thank you very much!

Ben Clemens: We worked hard to crank out a ton of stuff to get your baseball viewing off on the right foot

Oaktown Blues: If Soderstrom continues to hit, and Kurtz finds his way to the bigs soon, how do you handle playing time? Kurtz 1B/Soderstrom DH/Rooker LF? Or maybe try Soderstrom in LF? (assuming his catching days are mostly over)

Ben Clemens: Man, this is a great question, and something that I spent a lot of time thinking about when I wrote about the A’s first base situation in power rankings

Ben Clemens: I think they’d probably end up trying Soderstrom in left and seeing if it works. If not, they’ll move Rooker out there. I don’t see a trade in the cards, that just doesn’t really fit with the valuation of first basemen across the league

Ben Clemens: I’m pretty high on Soderstrom. I don’t have a strong view on Kurtz. But I don’t really think this is a big problem. All three of these guys working out would be great, and yeah, one of them can fake left field I’m sure

5 Run Homer: Alan Roden and Will Wagner: legit starters or useful bench bats? They’ve got me feeling a little better about the Jays’ season right now

Ben Clemens: I’m learning a lot about Roden on the fly, so I’m not confident with my answer there, though I noted that Eric re-evaluated him in the top 100 update that came out today

Ben Clemens: I’m very in on Wagner. I think that his hitting style feels well matched with his talent and that he’s going to be versatile enough defensively to find the field a ton

Bad teams: The White Sox, Marlins, Rockies, and Angels were the four worst teams last year. Could you (1) make a Wild Card contending roster from this group, and (2) would any of the players be White Sox?

Ben Clemens: Ooh, fun one

Ben Clemens: I think that you probably could. The Marlins have some pitchers, the Angels have some hitters, the Rockies have a shortstop and maybe a few other random contributors. I’d definitely want Miguel Vargas for my version of this squad, too

Ben Clemens: so at least one White Sock

Ben Clemens: and Robert obviously

Ben Clemens: that might be it though. Maybe a depth reliever or two

Matt Damon: MATT. DAMON.

Guest: Am I crazy for saying that baseball in general hasn’t fully contextualized how dominant Aaron Judge is? He has 2 top of the top 10 seasons (2022, 2024) by qualified wRC+ since integration. The only other players with more than 1 is Barry Bonds and Ted Williams

Obviously, he’s not going to have the counting stats of any “inner circle” HoFer (whatever that amorphous group may be), but he’s having a significantly better 3+ year peak than Pujols, ARod, Mays, Aaron, Schmidt…

Maybe missing 50 games in 2023 hurts this argument, but he’s just been so insanely good and I feel like most people think of him a “routinely” phenomenal player that the league gets every so often, not a once-in-fifty-years caliber hitter

Ben Clemens: Yes, I agree with you on this

Ben Clemens: Aaron Judge is doing something that very few hitters have done

Ben Clemens: It won’t feel the same way, because he just isn’t going to do it for a whole career. He started late and took a while to get cooking

Ben Clemens: but on a per-PA level I think people are underrating him. There’s great player fatigue, and people like me are at least part of it, because there’s so much sports coverage these days and writers love to talk superlatives

Ben Clemens: but Aaron Judge is superlative

Ben Clemens: more so than a lot of the things that we write about

anotherusername: Fun website error – the wrong Max Muncy’s image is being displayed on the Dodgers Max Muncy.

Ben Clemens: and that muncy has no picture!

Ben Clemens: strange

Ben Clemens: I let Sean know

Logan: With rumors that the O’s are open to moving Ryan Mountcastle (possibly Walltimore’s biggest victim during its short tenure), who do you see as good fits to maximize his value? I can’t help but think of the wonders that GABP would do for him, but the Reds’ openings are more in the corner OF, which he has barely played (and very poorly).

Ben Clemens: I mean….

Ben Clemens: c’mon

Ben Clemens: no one’s giving up anything of value for Ryan Mountcastle

Ben Clemens: I wrote about this in first base PPR’s (https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2025-positional-power-rankings-first-base/)

Ben Clemens: Here is what I wrote about him there:Mountcastle projects for more work despite being the natural short side of the platoon, and his track record has dead zone written all over it. There are plenty of guys who can produce a 112 wRC+, Mountcastle’s career mark. That makes him extremely replaceable, but the Orioles haven’t found a better option.

Bailey: Last lineup spot is between playing a full week of Jordan Beck in an outfield spot, or moving Edman to said outfield spot and playing Gunnar at SS when he won’t return until Thursday.  What to do?  Thanks!

Ben Clemens: mmmmmm…. tough one. I think I’d go with Gunnar. The Rockies have half their games on the road this week, and they’re facing Wheeler and Sanchez in two of them.

Ben Clemens: They only have six games, too

TomBruno23: I was thinking with the Cardinals that if Pages, Gorman and Scott II hit a HR each game and they can use one SP and one RP to get through 9 innings I think the season will be kind of fun.

Ben Clemens: yeah. If Pages is actually who we thought Adley Rutschman was, the Cards outlook goes up meaningfully

Ben Clemens: odds of that? probably not that high

Bosoxforlife: It is 2:14 already and I don’t see a torpedo bat question??? I like the concept of bringing more mass closer to the label. What do you think?

Ben Clemens: Oh there are plenty of torpedo bat questions, I’m just mostly ignoring them

Ben Clemens: It seems good to me

Ben Clemens: I doubt it’s a huge improvement

Ben Clemens: But I am willing to believe that it’s an improvement

Ben Clemens: it’s a tradeoff, right? changes where the most mass is located. So it’s a net good – but it’s gonna result in some worse swings at parts of the bat

Ben Clemens: I do buy the idea that since hitting the ball harder has exponential returns, you want to add the weight to the hits wehre you smash the ball (sweet spot) rather than to ones where you hit it closer to the end. But I’m guessing this is a small adjustment and not for every hitter

TugMcGrawFan1996: Colton Cowser just broke his dominant hand on a slide into first. How is it that in a world of analytics, in the year of our lord 2025, do teams not teach players to never ever slide into first no matter what?

Ben Clemens: I don’t think that it’s a learned behavior. I think it’s instinctual. Plenty of things in sports are just done at a subconscious level and wouldn’t happen if you go tto stop and decide what to do

Lightning Round!: When will society as a whole let Shaboozey slip away like we did with the Macarena, I’m Too Sexy, and The Scatman?

Ben Clemens: He’s running out of time for a second hit, imo

Ben Clemens: I think it’s a GREAT walkup song though

Guest: Royals up 3-0 over the Brewers in the first. My new thesis based on Aaron Judge and this inning is that the Brewers have the worst run prevention of all time and the Torpedo Bats were holding the Yankees back

Ben Clemens: loving it

Ben Clemens: torpedo bats torpedo Yankees, easy

mattygordo: What did Coby Mayo do to the Orioles front office to make them so mad. Is this just service time manipulation or is he really not seen as one of their 13 best batters?

Lightning Round!: Is Coby Mayo the new Michael Busch?  At this point he’ll get traded to a starting job by the time he’s 27 at this rate

Ben Clemens: I don’t know what to think about this

Ben Clemens: I don’t get the sense that they’re doing much manipulation these days; the Jackson Holliday demotion looks pretty reasonable a y ear later

Ben Clemens: and like, they do seem good at evaluating their own hitters

Ben Clemens: so I’m kind of thinking it’s a combination of the O’s being very focused on bringing guys up in good situations, with plenty of playing time and a good runway

Ben Clemens: and that they’ve got some sunk cost going on with hitters who are worse than him but out of options

Bosoxforlife: White Sox jump off to a 3-0 lead!

Ben Clemens: I made several ‘bold predictions’ this year that invovled the White Sox being merely below average

Ben Clemens: really hoping that I hit on those and seem like a visionary for a milquetoast bet on regression

mattygordo: Carlson over Mayo seems like a stretch though, we all know who Carlson is and there’s no upside there.

Ben Clemens: no options! and he’s not playing much

Ben Clemens: like, I don’t think that having Coby Mayo play Carlson’s role (0 PA) is good

Ben Clemens: although, he does have options, whoops

Ben Clemens: if Carlson starts 5 times this week, I’ll take it back

Ben Clemens: but my view on this is that they really don’t like sitting prospects on the bench in the majors

Tate: Brewers might be the worst team in baseball. They cant seem to get any outs.

Ben Clemens: I am willing to bet that they are not

Ben Clemens: that’s because I’ve seen some of the other teams in baseball

Okra: Blind resume – who would you rather for one year?  
A.  SP who has put up 1.5-2.5 WAR each of the last 3 years
B  SP who averaged 1-2 WAR and added 3mph to his fastball plus a new pitch?

Ben Clemens: I’d take B with no other info

Ben Clemens: because the WAR numbers are close enough that I’d be looking for tiebreakers anyway

Ben Clemens: and three miles an hour is great

Alec: speaking of evaluating hitters, is the Spencer Torkelson revenge tour in full swing?

Spencer Torkelson: Chances I finally put it all together this year?

Colin: Where do you think Devers’s contract will wind up now that he’s at full-time DH, and seeming to have a potentially hard opening (either due to DHing or injury, etc)?

Ben Clemens: I’m down on Devers in a long-term trajectory, I had his contract as not great last year, which kept him off the trade value top 50 even as an honorable mention

Ben Clemens: now, I’ll point out that I picked him to win MVP this year

Ben Clemens: but that was kind of a correlation bet, I built a bracket that’s very pro Red Sox and Devers busting out would do a good job of pushing that

Ben Clemens: I think it’ll end up as a ton of money for a good but not transcendent hitter. That’s fine, you don’t go broke handing out deals like that, but it’s not the kind of contract that is franchise-altering

Tom: Michael Siani is on pace for a 0 PA, 5-WAR season, just like we all expected

Ben Clemens: skill game

Mike Lommler: Since I have silly hypotheticals in mind: how soon would 1) the Phillies and 2) independent analysts notice if Kyle Schwarber magically acquired the defensive abilities of Pete Crow-Armstrong

Ben Clemens: oh man. I think the Phillies would notice QUICKLY

Ben Clemens: because they’d see him get to a ball and go wait what the hell

Ben Clemens: independent analysts? depends on if they have a sprint speed leaderboard

Ben Clemens: that would be where you see it first

Spencer Torkelson: Did you answer the Tork questions?

Ben Clemens: Oh I sure did not

Ben Clemens: we’re flow state chatting

Ben Clemens: my view is that it’s too early for sure

Ben Clemens: to say much about him in either direction

Ben Clemens: but, I’m surely encouraged that he was doing damage in spring training, though the power wasn’t really there

Ben Clemens: oh whoops, that was 2024 ST ISO

Ben Clemens: the power WAS there this spring, even better

Ben Clemens: the walks seemed to me to be a bit situational, I was watching several of them and didn’t come away thinking ‘oh what a great eye’

Ben Clemens: but the power looked real

“Uncle” Ben Rice: For your money, who has the best nickname in baseball?

Ben Clemens: I think Childish Bambino is still probably the best

Ben Clemens: not used all the time, of course. Oh, I like El Mago for Baez as well, even if it’s a bit dated

Logan: How much (if at all) does the “trading away” team impact how you view statistical and/or skill breakouts of a traded player (e.g. Gavin Lux)? In other words, to use Lux as an example, does the fact that it was the Dodgers selling him impact your confidence in his second half surge?

Ben Clemens: it does

Ben Clemens: but, in a particular way

Ben Clemens: I’m never that surprised to see the Dodgers trading away solid major league contributors because they have a lot of very good players already

Service Time Impingement Syndrome: Any reason to believe Ben Rice’s fast start and solid spring equate to real improvement?

Ben Clemens: in my 1b PPR writeup I ignored all the other Yankees we had projecdted at first and wrote about Rice

Ben Clemens: I think he’s the real deal, and i think that his struggles last season were the mirage

Ober: Too early for Ober worry, right? Flu… always starts like this… or is the velo drop scary?

Ben Clemens: Too early to worry

Ben Clemens: give it four starts and then you’re allowed to get very scared

JB: ROS 1B  ranking, Goldy, Manzardo, Torkelson, JES, Soderstrom,  N. Lowe, Paredes, Toglia, Mountcastle?

Ben Clemens: Ooh man. I’d go: Paredes, Goldy, Manzardo, Tork, then not much confidence after that. But to be clear, not a ton of confidence overall in these

Chip: One eyebrow raised: Louis Varland’s stuff+ has surged in the pen in a tiny sample. I’m interested to see how the Twins use him.

Ben Clemens: his stuff+ SHOULD be higher

Ben Clemens: dude is nasty

Ben Clemens: I still like him as a starter but I can understand using him as a high-lev reliever instead

Guest: who will have a better year. Bichette or Vlad Jr?

Ben Clemens: I mean, gimme Vlad?

Mike Lommler: You can take the on-contact metrics of any below-average player and give those to Steven Kwan, with the goal of producing the best and/or most-fun hitter possible. Who do you choose?

Ben Clemens: if you count Noel as below average, him, and it’d even be Guardians-themed

Derek: How big a problem is the Orioles having an entire rotation of 4th starters (plus hopefully eventually Grayson Rodriguez) going to be for them?

Ben Clemens: I think a lot!

Ben Clemens: I write about this often

Ben Clemens: I feel like they did not prioritize top end starting pitching enough in general

Ben Clemens: the Burnes trade being the one time they’ve gone against that plan, and even then, they went for the cheapest ace available in trade, one-year rental from a team forced to trade

Hank: Let’s talk Goldy for a second. Last year, as bad as it was, his Zswing, EV, all looked okay. He got annihilated by cutters oddly.

Hank: Do you think he goes back to 2023 Goldy or somewhere in the middle

Ben Clemens: I do not think he goes back to 2023. But I think he’ll be better than 2024. I think that if you werent’ allowed to look at results and just looked at building blocks, his trajectory would make a lot more sense

Ben Clemens: glide path down as he ages

Bosoxforlife: OMG. 1st and 2nd, nobody out in the top of the 2nd and the White Sox try a sac bunt. Which failed but was an absurd play call. Where are their stat guys?

Ben Clemens: they have stat guys?

Ben Clemens: like, multiple?

Ben Clemens: they don’t give me that vibe

J: The Brewers are definitely going to have to give Jacob Misiorowski a shot sooner than later right? With Civale out I’m not sure how you don’t try him out.

Ben Clemens: Yeah, I think so

Ben Clemens: They need to try

Ben Clemens: They also are a team that is open to trying

Ben Clemens: I bet we’ll see as much of him in the majors as he’s ready for this year

Guest: 8-0 white Sox lead… might be time to consider a bullpen role for Paddack

Ben Clemens: Paddack looked so good in relief

Ben Clemens: I really want them to leave him there as a two-inning type

Ben Clemens: I just don’t quite buy him as a starter, not enough variety

Mr. Burrito: FWIW I’m writing this with a torpedo keyboard… Here’s my question: The Dodgers have placed more players on opening day squads than any other organization, something that’s been true for the past few years. This is true even though the Dodgers have drafted super low for a super long time. How has that happened? And why aren’t the Dodgers given credit in the form of less crap-talk about them being over-spenders or, literally, in the form of comp picks that eventually will help the orgs that are less well run?

Ben Clemens: I don’t think that story is very exciting

Ben Clemens: I have a very good friend who’s a big baseball fan, texting me updates about how Dylan Crews looks multiple times a game

Ben Clemens: serious Nats and DC sports fan, knows his stuff

Ben Clemens: and the salary cap less aspect of baseball breaks his brain. like, he just wants to talk about competitive imbalance and how the Dodgers are an abomination

Ben Clemens: no matter how clear the evidence is that baseball parity is alive and well

Ben Clemens: if you spend money like that, it really doesn’t matter the other stuff you do, a sizeable proportion of fans only see the money

Wood: Who would be more valuable, Adley at SS or Gunnar at C?

Ben Clemens: I’m guessing Adley at shortstop because that seems easier to adjust to than catching

SinceYouMentionedit: Do you text your friend back that Dylan Crews can’t make contact? He looks awful 🙁

Ben Clemens: no haha, those are his texts to me

Ben Clemens: we were making up new theoretical sombreros. I called eight in a row the Americium Sombrero

Ben Clemens: rare, heavy

Everett: Thoughts on Colt Keith?

Ben Clemens: I didn’t love this move, though I thought Gleyber was a good enough free agent signing to make it work

Ben Clemens: maybe McKinstry gets forced out of the rotation and Gleyber moves to third? I dunno. But I worry that Keith’s bat is not good enough at first

How long left?: Been enjoying the yap session. How much longer will you be chatting?

Ben Clemens: 20 minutes, let’s say

Ben Clemens: gotta watch degrom’s start and get writing soon

Ben Clemens: Ooh a Sean Newcomb start

Ben Clemens: and it’s going exactly how I expected

Ben Clemens: here is an actual conversation I had when writing up the Red Sox rotation

Ben Clemens: Me: Meg, I know you said that I should include Newcomb because he’s in the rotation on opening day, but I really don’t want to.
Meg: Mention everyone in an opening day rotation
Me: Ugh

Ben Clemens: maybe he’ll prove me wrong

Ben Clemens: but like… no he won’t, let’s be real

All Rise: Back to Judge being underrated … is it possible Ohtani’s a tad overrated? I’ve seen Ohtani described as the greatest player in the world, but if I had one player to put on my team this year, I’m going with Judge — even if Ohtani makes it back to the mound.

Ben Clemens: it’s possible. The thing with Ohtani is that his talent is so clear that it’s less about results

Ben Clemens: and more about watching this guy and wondering what’s possible

Alec: happy carmen mlodzinski day!

Ben Clemens: may your spelling bees never include only the letters for Mlodzinski

David: Postseason randomness and all, but if you hypothetically had a one-game playoff between MLB all-stars and, say, the Chicago White Sox, would the all-stars have a 70-80% chance of winning?

Ben Clemens: Yeah

Ben Clemens: They would

Guest: You guys got me all hyped for the Royals. Will their focus on OBP (India/Canha) to relieve pressure from their younger players pay off and how long should it take to measure a difference if it is measurable?

Ben Clemens: It’ll take a while to measure. And I don’t think it’s guaranteed to work even if the plan is good and the acquisitions hit. But I love the concept

Ben Clemens: man Newcomb is getting nuked-omb

Ben Clemens: 15 pitches, 2-0 with no outs

Ben Clemens: and two on

MikeM: One more Judge question.  O/U 60 HRs?

Ben Clemens: ha, it’s wild that we’re projecting him for 53

Ben Clemens: so screw it, over

Dan: Should teams with a former catcher playing a different position very aggressively pinch hit their catcher? I heard teams tend not to PH for a catch in case the second one gets invited but surely any former catcher can handle a few emergency innings.

Ben Clemens: well ‘very aggressively’ isn’t really right. how about ‘less defensively’

Ben Clemens: but I definitely like where your head’s at

Ben Clemens: also I just had a flashback to the time that the Guardians pinch hit WITH Austin Hedges in the playoffs last year

Ben Clemens: and then were immediately banished to the shadow realm for their impudence

SABR nerd: Will you be at the SABR convention in Texas this summer?

Ben Clemens: When is it?

Idiotic Failson: The White Sox have 8 runs and the only one of those guys I have on a fantasy team is Robert – who only has a walk. Baseball makes me so mad sometimes.

Ben Clemens: Fantasy baseball, what a delight

Ben Clemens: That feeling of ‘oh the team put up 10, let’s open it up and get happy’ turning into ‘wait my guy was 1-5 with a single?’ is unmatched

Kwah: I haven’t seen it yet on the internet, so I think Fangraphs should be the first to publish an edited image of the end of THERE WILL BE BLOOD (2007) depicting Plainview as, like, Paul Goldschmidt, using a torpedo bat / bowling pin to bash a MLB pitcher’s face pasted onto Paul Dano’s body.  But in a nonviolent, uncontroversial way.

Ben Clemens: This sounds like a prompt you’d give AI that returns nonsense

Beisbolcats: Be honest, how many contenders would still have Baez on their roster?

Ben Clemens: you know, I feel like many would if he were willing to be a bench guy

Ben Clemens: which he clearly seems to be, at least form the outside looking in

question man: i’ll say it — the red sox are getting too cutter-happy

Ben Clemens: Kutter-happy*

Ben Clemens: Newcomb is out of the first, 4-0 Birds

TugMcGrawFan1996: Every ERA estimator disagrees on Bowden Francis. His FIP and xFIP said he greatly overperformed last year. His xERA said he got what he deserved. His SIERA says something in between. Over/under on a 3.5 ERA this year?

Ben Clemens: I’ll take the over, not by a ton but I think that’s just a good bet for anyone with his track record

Ben Clemens: great interview with him up today, by the way. David Laurila recently talked to him

Bosoxforlife: It is ridiculously early to really know anything but I don’t like the vibes the Brewers and the Twins are sending out.

Ben Clemens: Well that is definitely true

Okra: Who are you more frustrated with for not trading from their position player excess … Boston or Baltimore?

Ben Clemens: Baltimore. The Red Sox going out and getting Crochet makes me feel a lot better

Izzy: If Jazz stays healthy, does he have the power to go 40/40?

Ben Clemens: Yeah, I don’t think it’s a base case but he has the power for sure

Ben Clemens: I think the thing holding him back when he’s healthy is less power and more deploying it in good spots

Ben Clemens: I also think the Yankees are probably a good place for him given that. Lots of dudes there who solved this riddle and turned into great players

Guest: Michael A Taylor 2 run shot against paddack, now beginning to doubt if Paddack can survive a bullpen move

Ben Clemens: Good for MAT

Ben Clemens: one of the true good guys in baseball from everything i’ve heard about him

Doug: Mouncastle to the Padres in late April or mid May?

Ben Clemens: I think he isn’t washed enough to be a Pads backup

Ben Clemens: we’re talking Martin Maldonado here

Ben Clemens: Yuli Gurriel somehow

Guest: Idk seems to me like the solution to hitters moving the sweet spot closer to the handle of the bat is to just start pitching those guys outside.

Ben Clemens: Right, there are counter-moves and people have been using these bats for years without breaking the game

Mike: Any thoughts on Wilyer Abreu’s playing time projections? He was above 85th percentile in avg. EV, hard hit%, swing speed last year, and plays great defense, but is projected for under 500 PAs. Mainly due to the impending call up of Roman Anthony & platoon splits?

Ben Clemens: yeah it’s those two things. I think that it’s a projection in flux, more so than our average, both because his error bars are still wide and the players coming up are too

Ben Clemens: it’s also really tough to figure out how it all works with Yoshida, the Red Sox have a lot of lefties to juggle

Chip: Really impressive how Luke Jackson led the Oregon Ducks to the NCAA Tournament in the early aughts and is now the Rangers closer.

Mr. Fister: Are the Royals just going to continue with this Russian Roulette of having a complete black hole of a 6-9 in their lineup every year, just in the name of having good CF defense?  At this point, I’d rather watch a better lineup with a Vinnie P. patrolling CF than this gaggle of no-stick having softies

Mr. Fister: And it would be really entertaining to watch Vinnie play CF

Ben Clemens: I feel like it’s better this year than last year, at least

Ben Clemens: Like, MJ Melendez’s most frequent spot in the batting order last year was 5th

Ben Clemens: don’t love that!

Ben Clemens: I truly am horrified to type this but Maikel Garcia’s most frequent spot was leadoff

Ben Clemens: Sure, those guys might still be on the team. But at least they’re the bottom third of the order this year instead of batting first and fifth

Sam: what are your thoughts on the rangers pitching staff? they seem divisive like they could be solid or bad…they lack depth for me but I guess if they’re healthy they could be good

Ben Clemens: Yeah, I think that they’re going to break, basically. I think that Patrick Corbin is going to throw a ton of innings for them

Ben Clemens: And that’s never what you want to hear

Ben Clemens: Love Corbin’s story, not sure I want him on my big league playoff contender

joeesav: gimme the over in this Balt Bost gm

Ben Clemens: yeah, I was so busy questioning Newcomb that I forgot to question Cade Povich

Mr. Fister: Okay, that makes me feel slightly better, but if Kyle Isbel is still on this team in 26, I’m going to be massively disappointed.

Ben Clemens: I left Isbel out because his most frequent lineup spot in 2024 was …. 9th

Ben Clemens: but yeah

Ben Clemens: I think that two things are true: the Royals understand that their lineup did not have enough juice to make this work sustainably

Ben Clemens: and the Royals still don’t have enough juice to make this work sustainably even after making some improvements

Christian: Bubic looking solid in his return to the starting rotation.

Ben Clemens: they’re not booing

Ben Clemens: alright, on that note, I’m going to do a quick lightning round and then call it a chat. I’ve got baseball to watch!

Guest: Andres Giminez was hitting the ball noticeably harder this spring and now already has 2 home runs and a double. At what point does quality of contact start being signal rather than noise?

Ben Clemens: Arbitrarily, after 15 games. Focus particularly on barrel rate ,because that’s the kind of power that most stably plays

Idiotic Failson: Of the guys still on the FA market, Robertson is the most perplexing. Every contender could use a guy like him in the bullpen. Will we see him sign mid season, or is he done?

Ben Clemens: I think there’s a chance he’s done of his own volition

Ben Clemens: obviously he COULD have taken a deal if he wanted to, if all he cared about was pitching

wheelhouse: different yankee than is getting a lot of attention after the weekend: rodon threw like 25% four seam fastballs on opening day. how does the more kitchen sink approach impact your estimation of him now and future

Ben Clemens: it does not. let’s see a few more starts

Mike Lommler: You can choose one pitcher to gift Roki Sasaki’s splitter/split-change/whatever the heck that thing is. Who do you choose, and why?

Ben Clemens: Mason Miller b/c that’d be fun

Dan’l: What’s your favorite ’25 early-season over-reaction?

Ben Clemens: torpedo bats in general

Alec: Baez’s nickname has been updated to La Basura

Ben Clemens: oof

Kwah: Over/Under on # MLB innings tossed by relief pitcher Joey Gallo in next 4 years?  Is it higher than 1 (one) IP ?

Ben Clemens: It’s 0.5, but I think I’d take the over

J: I just want to throw out that the Phillies booth just said that not many players do a better job coming in on fly balls than Nick Castellanos, which might be the most delusional take I’ve ever heard

Ben Clemens: just depends on lots of the qualitifers used there

Ben Clemens: is it like, relative to other skills?

Ben Clemens: relative to John Kruk’s little league team?

Sam: Early thoughts on Altuve in LF so far? it’s been interesting to say the least haha

Ben Clemens: small man big wall make ben laugh

RetireNutting: Even with Skenes, it feels like there’s a chance the Pirates are this year’s White Sox

Ben Clemens: I don’t see it

Ben Clemens: too many other interesting players there

Todd Bonzalez: Do the Reds have the deepest rotation in baseball sans the Dodgers? Not the highest quality, but I feel like they have at least 8 guys you’d be comfortable with in your rotation.

Ben Clemens: yes!

Ben Clemens: wrote about this in the PPR’s

Ben Clemens: maybe they’re not THE deepest but their depth is a very strong feature

Ben Clemens: I like the way they’ve done it

Ben Clemens: lots of those young guys (Lodolo is somehow 27 but I still think of him as young) could pop

Ben Clemens: and they don’t all have to because of the depth

Ben Clemens: big fan

Punk in drublic: Best NL only pickup. Graham Pauley, nick martini, Eric wagaman, or Vinny Capra

Ben Clemens: this is gonna be pt-related

Ben Clemens: I guess I’m kinda leaning Capra b/c he seems to do things the Brewres like, so that might get him more time

Mr. Fister: At least I heard KC made plays at Santander and Profar.  Silver linings I guess.  Gotta crawl before you can walk

Ben Clemens: Look adding India and Canha at reasonable rates is a great start

Ben Clemens: Mark Canha is not great at this stage in his career but he’s a lot better than Kyle Isbel at the plate

Ben Clemens: also an incredible follow, his big league foodie stuff is fun

Ben Clemens: okay, on that note, it’s time to go

Ben Clemens: have a wonderful week, everyone, and welcome back to baseball

Longtime FG reader: Hey what’s up with Dave Cameron? I miss him. Any idea what he’s up to?

Ben Clemens: working for the Mariners