Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat – 5/20/25

Ben Clemens: Hey everyone, welcome to the chat

Ben Clemens: Let’s get started

Jake: What is wrong with Michael Harris, and is he at risk of losing playing time when Acuna returns? Time to cut bait on him in fantasy?

Ben Clemens: I think it might be time to cut bait for the year, all the contact quality stuff is completely falling apart. I don’t think he’s very likely to lose playing time because he’s just spectacular defensively but he is definitely not helping your fantasy team at the moment. If I’m the Braves, I’m running him out there without hesitation, but if I’m a fantasy player, I mean, presumably you can do better

Streakers: Do you think either the Cards or Twins are actually playoff teams or just catching a good streak at the moment?

Ben Clemens: Cards, I’m gonna say no, just becuase there are so many hot starts in the NL that it feels like NLC or bust to me and I really like the Cubs. Twins, I’ll actually say yes; they’re playing for the Wild Card as well but for me, that’s an easier lift in the AL

Tim Livingston: As a fellow Giants watcher, is there anything statistically relevant to gleam from the anecdotes of how the team (Flores being the obvious but example) have supposedly changed their approaches in situations with RISP? It seems very ipso post facto, but it’s been a loud talking point this season.

Ben Clemens: I mean, maybe. But you’d need WAY more PA’s to have any idea. In high leverage spots, the Giants have batted 197 times this year.

Ben Clemens: Their standout skill is actually slugging, which doesn’t really jive with the “shorten up and put the ball in play” story

Bosoxforlife: I enjoy these chats so much that I hoped that yesterday was just a rainout and you would reschedule the game for today and I am rewarded.

Ben Clemens: hooray! And hello

Tito Please Stop: McLain now batting 9th with relative success. How much longer til he’s back at the top of the order; or is this just some weird superstition. When do you move on?

Ben Clemens: I think probably the next time there’s an off day for someone at the top

Ben Clemens: it’s a little bit superstition and a little bit ‘the gains are very small so why make the transition messy?’

alexis anthopolous: Would it make sense to pursue a Sean Murphy trade given the emergence of Baldwin? While having two quality catchers is nice, the Braves team has several other holes that need filling

Ben Clemens: Catchers are famously hard to trade in-season because they need to learn their new pitching staff. Not that it never happens, but it’s not common, particularly for starters

T2: Ben, thanks for doing this. Between Judge and Ohtani, who is the better deal for the ball club?

Ben Clemens: Oh, fun one!

Ben Clemens: On the field, I’d have to say it’s Judge

Ben Clemens: he’s cheaper and better right now

Ben Clemens: so like…. yeah that’s good

Ben Clemens: counting off field stuff, I think I’d take Ohtani. The Dodgers are just making BANK off of his celebrity

Sonny: People seem to forget that ‘young’ teams drop these duds all the time. Baltimore joins a long list of teams that peaked a year early (2023) then struggled to follow up and make ‘the leap.’ See the 2014-2017 Astros for more of Elias’s handiwork.

Ben Clemens: I mean, the Astros won the World Series in 2017

Ben Clemens: but I take your point

Ben Clemens: it’s a little different, right? in that the first time the Astros were actually great, they won the WS

Scoreboard415: Is Will Warren real? His FIP looks great, his stuff looks great live, but it feels like each inning there’s a 50% he walks 2 players or gives up absurdly loud contact.

Scouts still seem mixed, with Keith Law insisting he’s destined for the bullpen.

Ben Clemens: Okay, so I’m a huge believer. That’s going to color my opinion – before the year started, I was a strong yes

Ben Clemens: so…. strong yes

Scoreboard415: Best non-mexican burrito in SF? Saucy Asian? Señor Sisig? Curry Up Now?

Ben Clemens: Ooooooh, I have a good one for you if you haven’t had it

Ben Clemens: Poke burrito at Hook Fish Co

Ben Clemens: I read that it was Chesa Boudin’s favorite burrito in the city and I was like “what an idiot, pick la taq or you’ll look like a dummy”

Ben Clemens: but then I had it and yeah, it’s phenomneal

DeeBo: Who do you think will be the best player dealt at the deadline? I’m not surprised at the Skenes rumors – the Pirates are bad and he has incredible value so many years away from FA – but I’m not sure I buy them

Ben Clemens: It’s not Skenes

Ben Clemens: They might as well burn down the stadium if they trade Skenes, because they wouldn’t need the seats anymore

Ben Clemens: how about…. Freddy Peralta? Luis Robert Jr.?

Bullock: Is it going to turn out that the O’s were actually smart not to extend any of their players because it turns out none of them are as good as they seemed?  That would be so depressing.

Ben Clemens: I don’t think so. The deal with these early extensions is that you buy yourself a pretty good breakeven

Ben Clemens: they don’t have to be incrdible for those deals to be good

Ben Clemens: now, extending them at THIS point? maybe they’re getting more expensive now

KC Pain: Any hope for Adames? Other than that big HR game not even steals despite getting on base.

Ben Clemens: I still believe in Adames, but honestly, I don’t think the steals are coming back

Ben Clemens: those were an out of nowhere thing that I assume was heavily influenced by the Brewers

Ben Clemens: I think his defense and hitting will return, but I’m putting him down for like 3-5 steals the rest of the way

Scoreboard415: (maybe this is an article) Can you highlight one hitter and pitcher who is having a breakout that you believe is real?

Ben Clemens: probably an article

Ben Clemens: Dan’s article today is kind of about this, too

Bom: Which would you say is worse: a team that lucks into a generational talent and completely wastes him, or a team that never manages to develop even a single good player (not naming any names)

Ben Clemens: I’d rather watch the team taht wastes the generational talent b/c then I’d at least get to see him

Insert Witty Name Here: What did you do for your mother for Mother’s Day?

Ben Clemens: We got her a nice candle and had a good chat, but really, I got her going to a Brewers game the week before, and hanging out for the weekend

Ben Clemens: even though it wasn’t on Mother’s day proper, it was very nice

Plan B: Plan B seems to be going pretty well for the Yankees.

Ben Clemens: Max Fried is making it look incredible, huh?

Endy Chavez: Has there been any research on the impact of the pitch clock on performance? Either leaguewide or for individuals? I’m curious if anyone has been especially hurt by the change.

Ben Clemens: I haven’t seen any, and honestly, I wouldn’t completely know where to start

Mr. Burrito: Do the Dodgers need to trade for a pitcher? It sounds outlandish given where the roster was two months ago, but it feels like the lack of starters is starting to burn down the bullpen. It also feels like, as of this minute, there are too many question marks. Glasnow? Snell? Ohtani? Sasaki? Kershaw? Any or all could be either A., injured to the point of not being effective this year? B. too young or C., cooked…. Would an offer of, say, Freeland and Knack, fetch a mid-level starter and a lottery pick prospect? I know any of the above (or Sheehan, who is due back in a month or so) could be the answer. But all of those possibilities are big “ifs” for a roster built to win a WS this year.

Ben Clemens: If I were them, I’d be targeting the kinds of pitchers that are cheap because “they can’t start in the playoffs”

Ben Clemens: like, yeah, the Dodgers are full up on dudes who can start in the playoffs

Ben Clemens: they need Erick Fedde or the equivalent

KC: Is Zebby worth holding in a 15 team league? Worried about the Twins holding him back

Ben Clemens: I have been wondering this as well

Ben Clemens: I settled on no for me

Ben Clemens: but it’s team dependent

Bullock: All of Sal Perez’s plate discipline, batted ball, and statcast metrics look very normal for him, so I shouldn’t panic, right?  Right?  But he’s a 35 year old large man catcher, so maybe I should panic a little?

Ben Clemens: yeah for me the age is the important factor

Ben Clemens: maybe I’ll be wrong

Ben Clemens: But I thought he was more 2023 than 2024 and even though I’m expecting some power back, I think it’s like 95 wRC+ power rather than peak Salvy power

Fish: Say the Marlins added Tucker and Bichette in the offseason (they’d never spend like this). Would that be enough to make them a WS contender?

Ben Clemens: no, haha

Ben Clemens: sadly

Ben Clemens: i feel like in previous years, it could have been the case

Ben Clemens: but they’re just very bereft of talent right now

Bosoxforlife: I am afraid that the Red Sox are heading down the same slope that the Orioles slipped on. After Crochet it is a vast wasteland. The complete collapse of Houck, the injury to Buehler, not a surprise, and sending the remains of Giolito out there too often has their rotation looking all too similar to the fate that has befallen Baltimore. Add in the 1st base fiasco and this has all the makings of a long dull summer.

Ben Clemens: I actually think they’re in a better position than the O’s, and it’s not really fair to compare the two rotations. Sure, the Sox have been disappointing, but they’ve had a decent number of injuries and underperformance from Houck, six starters on the IL, and yet I feel like Crochet + Bello + whichever other dude steps up is a fine top 3

Ben Clemens: Orioles starters have an ERA 1.63 runs higher than Red Sox starters, lol

Ben Clemens: that number hardly seems real

Ben Clemens: their FIP is more than a run higher too, it’s not just some weird batted ball luck thing

KC: This Adley “slump” is almost a year long at this point. Is this still merely a cold streak or is it time to start thinking this is who he is? The Orioles have young catching talent, would it be worth just letting Adley DH for a bit and try to get back on track?

Ben Clemens: I’d consider it. I’m starting to believe that he wasn’t affected by injury last year, since he seems healthy and is still scuffling

Ben Clemens: just, try something

Ben Clemens: he’s clearly incredibly talented but I’d love to see them shake it up a little

Ben Clemens: I get that sometimes the smart thing to do is just keep doing the same thing that used to work even when it stops working

Ben Clemens: but in this particular situation, there’s no time for that. try something rash, imo

Some kinda Mook: So Carlos Narvaez looking like a steal for the Red Sox, huh? Even when he regresses

Ben Clemens: right?

Ben Clemens: even assuming a big regression!

Al: Swing path and attack angle on savant!  Any advice on how to interpret / what any of it means?  Vlad one of the worst in league wrt “ideal attack angle” !

Ben Clemens: not yet, but I”m gonna goof around with it

Bosoxforlife: How baseball boggles the mind is astounding, incredible and all the other superlatives that can be conjured up. The Twins are the latest to amaze me. Between 8/24/2024 and 5/2/2025, this, expected to be good, team went 23-43 then peeled off 13 straight wins including a few with Buxton and Correa out. Would you please explain this.

Ben Clemens: See, I feel liek me saying ‘fine I’ll stop predicting the Twins to win the ALC” made it happen

Ben Clemens: so you’re welcome, Bobby (my Twins fan friend)

Ben Clemens: more realistically, yeah, baseball is great!

Bon Daylor: What does Aaron Judge’s ROS WRC+ have to be to drop him down to 150?

Ben Clemens: hm, let’s see

Ben Clemens: 491 PA left, 210 PA at 245 so far

Ben Clemens: 109

Ben Clemens: That’s 210*245+491*x=(210+491)*150

Ben Clemens: solve for x

Valuation of bat vs arm: Which side of an OttoNeu YTD   Points trade do you favor? Either is a good/best answer. This league SPs are tightly held. Both teams Top 3. Both teams deep in the traded pieces from. $26 Carroll for $40 Skenes

Ben Clemens: oooooh, love an Otto question

Ben Clemens: hmmmmm…. I think it’s pretty team dependent, and H2H vs. roto too. I’m assuming H2H because that’s how I play Otto, and in that case, the guy you’re replacing Skenes with matters a ton

Ben Clemens: I’d probably favor the Skenes side unless I had like 5 starters I liked plus two decent options

Lucas: Who do the Phillies trade for now that the Alverado disaster happened? They also still need a CF. How do you see things shaking out at the trade deadline?

Ben Clemens: I think they’ll do their normal thing of shoring up weak spots as cheaply as they can. I keep advocating for the Nats to trade Jacob Young, maybe he could go to Philly

Ben Clemens: and yeah, they could use relievers

TKDC: What are the chances that Wilmer Flores (10 HR) becomes the first Giant to hit 30 homers in a season since Barry Bonds in 2004?

Ben Clemens: I’ll call it 15%. I’d actually take Chapman over him. Maybe Ramos too

John Paul: Are you pro prospect hoarding or more pro trading away prospects for big league ready talent?

Ben Clemens: what I try to be is flexible

Ben Clemens: the idea being like, when a team is down in its cycle, it’s the time to hoard

Ben Clemens: and to be very willing to experiment and try n ew things

Ben Clemens: and then when the games are more meaningful for you and roster space gets tighter, great news, you hoarded all those prospects, let’s cash them in

Ben Clemens: that’s easier said than done, of course

a man has no name: mitch keller to the dodgers…for who?

Ben Clemens: i dunno, Sheehan? some kind of guy the Pirates can talk themselves into being Mitch Keller if things break well

Ben Clemens: but cheaper!

Hicks Truther: I still believe that Jordan Hicks could be a decent starter. His velocity has been fine outside of one start, and his 3.53 FIP, 3.98 xERA, .366 BABIP, and 57.1% LOB% suggest that he’s been insanely unlucky. I think he could maybe be a #3 guy with enough experience. Am I a moron?

Ben Clemens: I think something that’s missing is that some of that BABIP is earned

Ben Clemens: I’ve watched a LOT of Jordan Hicks in my life

Ben Clemens: my wife and I recently decided that the three pitchers we’ve seen teh most times are Jacob deGrom, Logan Webb, and Jordan Hicks

Ben Clemens: and I think that his sinker is just not a babip-suppressing pitch at medium velo

Ben Clemens: I do think he got a rough deal, but I think he’s probably not gonna make it back to the rotation. They’re also clearly worried about fatigue, so changing roles a ton of times? Skeptical

Petey Bienel: How long of a leash does Dylan Crews have this season? I suppose the Nats aren’t in a position to replace him with somebody, but his Ks are pretty worrisome after trending better much of April. Was he forced to the majors just to chase RotY? His AAA numbers didn’t scream call me up.

Ben Clemens: I’d give him the longest leash imaginable

Ben Clemens: what are they losing by trying him out in the bigs?

Ben Clemens: honestly the biggest problem he has is passivity, imo

Ben Clemens: so figure it out against big leaguers

Jay: Do you buy Ivan Herrera as a top ~25 hitter in the league over the next few years?

Ben Clemens: No, I do not

Ben Clemens: I do buy him as a top-50 position player, though. Not my median assumption but in range. The guy can really hit

Charlie: I dunno, I feel like the 1st base fiasco has the makings of at the lest an interesting summer, if not a good one.

Ben Clemens: This has to be about the Sox. And it’s totally true!

Ben Clemens: I’m so excited

Guest: who are you most to least optimistic about the rest of 2025: Salvy, Santander, Adames, Altuve

Ben Clemens: Adames

Ben Clemens: and then Altuve/Santander/Salvy

Ben Clemens: that’s for real life. In fantasy I’d probably put Altuve over Adames

Bosoxforlife: My prediction that the Dodgers would win more games than the two worst teams amongst the Rockies, White Sox and Marlins looks good. Add in the Pirates and it is simply astonishing to see MLB turn into the NBA with so many non-competitive teams

Ben Clemens: the Rockies are SO bad

Ben Clemens: like, the White Sox aren’t good, don’t get me wrong

Ben Clemens: but they’re -57 run differential so far, not even bottom 5

Ben Clemens: the Rockies are -150 RD!!!!!

A’s fan: Do we see Kurtz turn it around this year, or is he sent back to AAA?

Ben Clemens: omg did you see that tag he put on?

Ben Clemens: but uh, I’d probably send him back down, I hate to say. He cannot make contact and his plate discipline isn’t gonna play until he can

Ben Clemens: The A’s are theoretically competing for something, they can’t wait for him to figure that out on the fly

Chase: What would a Zach Neto and/or Logan O’Hoppe extension look like? Halos trying to be the Braves of the West, they better start doing Braves things and not just trading with them

Ben Clemens: I haven’t run them through the model specifically but I think with Neto, it’d be a classic ‘80% of arb plus two free agent years at $20m and a team option at $25 for a third’

Ben Clemens: if I were him, I’d be tempted not to take that

Ben Clemens: but that’s about wehre I ballpark what a team might offer him

Ben Clemens: As for O’Hoppe, catchers just don’t command the same kinds of deals. I’d model it on a baby Will Smith contract; Smith got a good deal of money, but with low AAV over a long period of time. That suits the Halos well

Guest: 2 players have multiple 400 foot oppo homers this year. james wood and dylan crews. however both of crews’ came off of chase dollander. as did one of wood’s. i think this anecdote says a lot about crews and the rockies (and wood)

Mike Lommler: I was gonna ask a question about why pitchers are throwing PCA any strikes… but they already seem to hardly throw him any strikes. So my questions is this? Do you see PCA eventually taking more walks as the season goes on (he could hardly walk less) or do you think he is due for a significant come-down? His x-stats actually seem to be catching up with his production rather than vice-versa, so I dunno.

Ben Clemens: I think that he’ll end up taking more walks but hitting for less power

Ben Clemens: because eventually he’s going to stop being on such a wild on-contact run and get convinced to chase a bit less

Ben Clemens: i know it’s hard but it’s not impossible

Ben Clemens: and then pitchers will eventually start attacking him more as a result

Matt Damon: MATT. DAMON.

Dan’l: What % chance do the young, overperforming Card players continue on as they have so far in ’25? Thinking about Liberator, Scott, Herrerra (not hitting .400, to be clear)…

Ben Clemens: I’ll say 60% for Libby, 70% for Herrera (playing at a first-division starter level, a top 10 catcher in baseball), and 35% for Scott. I think that Scott can still be good if his hitting regresses…. but I think it’s gonna regress

Dan’l: If you’re running the Cards, how far back in the Central at the deadline would you consider selling pieces (Fedde, Helsley)? Do you expect them to do the same as what you would do?

Ben Clemens: If I’m within, say, 3 games, I’m keeping them

Ben Clemens: I think the team will probably do something similar. Compete if it looks doable

Ben Clemens: it’s the Cardinals. They can’t help looking around and saying ‘should we try to win the division?’

Jeremy: Is there a specific kind of hitter who’s been hurt especially much by the ball being deader this year?

Ben Clemens: I looked into this the last time the ball went dead, and guys of the Anthony Rendon archetype (mid power, very good at bat control and thus elevating) had the biggest downside

Ben Clemens: now, the two most prominent examples of that both got plugged into good short porch situations (Bregman and Paredes)

Ben Clemens: but that kind of guy…. high contact, high aerial contact…. should be hurt hte most

Sanford: As a NY resident + sports enjoyer, I get how fandom works and I get how our media landscape operates. But man the Soto vitriol feels particularly desperate and depressing, even for our standards

Ben Clemens: I’m with you

Ben Clemens: maybe in the plyaoffs

Ben Clemens: this is a lot for May

Ben Clemens: methinks the Yankees fans doth protest too much

Bosoxforlife: With season almost 1/3rd of the way along, outside of the Orioles difficult to believe collapse what has surprised you the most?

Ben Clemens: I think it’s the Rockies’ abject awfulness

Ben Clemens: Wilmer Flores leading the majors in RBI is kind of wild

Ben Clemens: even though RBI aren’t that useful of a predictive stat, like, dang

Soto: Person of the year award should go to the guy who got everyone in the baseball world to think Juan Soto was worth not 500 million, not 600 million, but 700 million……All for a diva who doesn’t hustle and will be a DH in 5 years.  Are there that few players who are good at hitting a baseball?  Seems like we’re due for a market correction.

Ben Clemens: Hey look!

Ben Clemens: some of it came here

Ben Clemens: come on, man

Surprising stats: Shohei has scored 50+ runs already!

rockies: they can’t actually lose 135 games tho, right?
… right?

Ben Clemens: …… right

Scoreboard415: How do I signup for “Ben’s random SF food recommendations?”

Ben Clemens: hmmmmm

Ben Clemens: just ask me some!

Ben Clemens: just went to cache in inner sunset, a new bistro-y casual place, and really liked it

Wrigley: Is PCA really this good – or will the weak plate discipline hold him back?

Ben Clemens: I mean, obviously he’s not THIS good

Ben Clemens: but I think that he’s the kind of hitter who can succeed with poor discipline because everything else he does is so dynamic

Ben Clemens: you can thin kof him like a luxury harrison bader, maybe. You don’t have to solve hitting to run a good enough wRC+ accrued largely in hot streaks, and then get everything else with your defense

B Esiason: Juan Soto and Mrs. Met were in the closet making babies and I saw one of the babies and the baby looked at me

Ben Clemens: now THAT

Ben Clemens: is great Juan Soto heckling

Steve O: Kind of a wild question to ask but is Kyle Tucker losing himself money by not having a Soto like walk year? He’s on pace for 5ish WAR which for me is 200-300M range when you factor in age.

Ben Clemens: We’ve got him on pace for 5.5 WAR which, yeah, would definitely represent a lower FA contract than I pegged him for before the year

Ben Clemens: that said, he’s hitting the snot out of the ball, if his BABIP ends the year at his career .280 instead of .250 everything’s gonna look a lot better

Justin: I don’t have social media, but if someone hasn’t pointed out the irony of Yankees fans being mad that someone else signed their big money free agents then I’m going to do it here

Ben Clemens: 🙂

Sodo Mojo: Rhys Hoskins has bounced back in a big way in 2025.  He is in the last year of his contract what do you think the brewers could get for him at the deadline if he keeps this up?

Ben Clemens: Ehhhhhh

Ben Clemens: very little

Ben Clemens: unless they ate all the money

Ben Clemens: and then…. very little

Ben Clemens: i’m sorry, but a 1b only guy who isn’t going completely bonkers is just not going to move the needle

Ben Clemens: if he turns it up a few notches, maybe cracks 10 bombs in the next 30 days, we’ll re-evaluate

Your Name: What’s the path forward for the Pirates? If there was ever an offseason to spend even just a little, this was it. So now what?

Ben Clemens: I think they’re going to scapegoat Ben Cherington this winter and stagnate into a new era of irrelevance while fans increasingly curse Bob Nutting

Scoreboard415: if the orioles hired you as the new GM today, what is your general strategy?

• Punt this year? Start selling in July?
• How much do you sell?
• Bunker down and go big next offseason?

Ben Clemens: So, this is off the cuff, but:

Ben Clemens: this year’s over, they’re too far behind

Ben Clemens: so I’d be willing to sell the upcoming free agents, though I’d be a bit hesitant on Mullins unless someone offers a haul.

Ben Clemens: I like having a team leader guy like that and I’m not sold on Cowser as the long-term CF so I don’t have having him

danny: on ohtani vs judge, worth noting with everything going on and said, ohtanis actually taken #1 in xwoba now. wonder if the real results will begin lining up (babips normalize a bit?)

Ben Clemens: ehhhhh…. xwOBA is so tough for these mega power guys

Ben Clemens: because spray angle matters a lot more. the big boppers tend to underperform xwOBA (basically b/c hitting a homer 100 feet over the right field wall is skewing their results somewhat)

Your Name: Mr. Trade Value: How much are extra years of control worth? For example, does trading someone with 4 years of control vs 3 fetch a meaningfully different return? (Thinking of the Pirates and Skenes.)

Ben Clemens: So, I’ve written about this some with pitchers before, but not usually guys of Skenes’s caliber

Ben Clemens: the years matter a lot!

Ben Clemens: I think I’d give up an extra 45+FV prospect equivalent in a return, or tier up what I’m offering, which is not a minor thing

Ben Clemens: now, 5 years vs. 4 years is less of a difference than, say, 3 vs 2, at least to me

Ben Clemens: but i’d be very interested in the extra years for pitchers because acquiring one with 2-ish years left and then having them get hurt is so bad

Scoreboard415: Cache is on my list (as an inner sunset resident), as is Kothai Republic. Need to get back to the eastern side of the city more. Much appreciated!

Ben Clemens: nice!

Ben Clemens: an oldie but a goodie, I’ll throw in Terra Cotta Warrior, went back recently and it was still incredible

Ben Clemens: alright guys, I gotta run and make lunch

Ben Clemens: guy who asks the lunch question, I’m reheating some tacos today (reheating the components with fresh tortillas, I’m not a monster)

Ben Clemens: have a wonderful rest of your week