Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat – 9/15/25

Ben Clemens: Hey everyone

Ben Clemens: Got a slightly late start while I scramble around here but let’s get going

Nats Fan: Cj Abrams is better defensively this year than he was last year.  But he is still fairly below average.  Do you think the Nats should be patient or move him to second, or somewhere else?

Ben Clemens: Yeah, I’d move him

Ben Clemens: love the offense, don’t think the defense is gonna pan out at this point given that it hasn’t yet

The Person Who Asks The Lunch Question: What’s for lunch?

Ben Clemens: I have no idea, to be honest with you. Just got back from a trip and so I don’t think tehre’s much in the fridge. Probably takeout?

Dansby Swansong: I know batting average isn’t much of a thing anymore, but should a .242 hitter win the MVP?  Ohtani won it with a .257 BA, but he also pitched.

Ben Clemens: I mean…. They should if they manage to be a huge contributor on offense despite that handicap

Ben Clemens: but it’s pretty hard to be an incredibly valuable player while accruing that few hits

Ben Clemens: you’d have to, I don’t know, walk a lot, hit so many home runs that hour slugging percentage is ludicrous anyway, maybe play catcher for some defensive value?

Phil: True or False: Roki Sasaki does not pitch for the Dodgers again until 2026.

Phil: True or False: Clayton Kershaw will not start a playoff game for the Dodgers in 2025.

Ben Clemens: Fun ones

Ben Clemens: I have to be honest with you, I’m not on top of the Roki news. I’m expecting him to pitch, but I’m skeptical it’ll be as a full-outing starter

Ben Clemens: and yeah, given that, I guess I have ‘yes’ on Kershaw starting a playoff game

Ben Clemens: maybe they’ll piggyback Kershaw and Ohtani!

Ben Clemens: though I suppose in that case Ohtani would probalby start, b/c how would he warm up during the game?

21127: Moises Ballesteros is hitting 321/406/536 in The Show. We know that we cannot draw conclusions from that slash line based on 31 plate appearances. But what about based on a 21-year-old who has 4 BBs, 1 K, and a .214 ISO in his first 31 plate appearances? That feels to me both rarer and more impressive.

Ben Clemens: Yeah, you still can’t learn anything unfortunately

Ben Clemens: but, I love Moises Ballesteros

Ben Clemens: I’d say that I haven’t changed my opinion on him since he debuted — but my opinion was ‘this dude rocks so much that I went out of my way to write about him, and that’s before two straight seasons of hitting in Triple-A

Ben Clemens: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/less-heralded-hitting-prospects-i-like-in-…

WAR: Does Judge read FanGraphs? The famous Jaffe article last year, then he writes one in early September, plus the WAR article… just a casual 232 wRC+ in September against 4 good teams. This guy!

Ben Clemens: haha I hope he does

Ben Clemens: I hope everyone does!

Ben Clemens: I do think a decent number of players read FG though

RH: Why can’t the Reds do it? It was there for the taking this week!

Ben Clemens: baseball is hard

Ben Clemens: the other guys live in big houses too

Eldridge Horror: How do you feel about the Giants calling up Bryce Eldridge? I mean he’s definitely gonna strike out a lot but his EVs are insane lol (64% hard-hit rate??!!?)

Ben Clemens: I think they have to with Dom Smith out

Ben Clemens: like, they don’t have a lot of lefty bats on the bench

Ben Clemens: and they want to platoon 1b/dh

Ben Clemens: I’d definitely try it

David Wiers: I don’t know what to make of Trent Grisham. 30 HR, but single-digit doubles, but he’s basically flipped his 2023 season there. Only 12 home HR, so it isn’t just a short porch thing. Some mostly great Statcast numbers, but do you think he’ll even out and is more likely a 20-doubles, 20-HR guy going forward?

Ben Clemens: Yes

Ben Clemens: When I model future power output on my own, I like to heavily regress 2b/hr ratio towards the mean

Ben Clemens: not like, all the way

Ben Clemens: but htese weird seasons where everything seems to go out generally don’t seem to last (and vice versa)

White fang: What you got cooking up

Ben Clemens: doing some playoff odds investigation for tomorrow

Ben Clemens: after that, who knows

Nancy’s Friend Sluggo: I’m the only Zen NYM fan. I think they barely make the playoffs and then have a decent shot of upsetting the LAD in the first round.

Ben Clemens: I like it

Ben Clemens: you should talk to my Mets fan friends

Ben Clemens: I agree with you across the board on this, tbh

Blustery Day: Can wind have a noticeable effect on pitching control? Was watching the Dodgers/Giants Ray vs. Glasnow game and the wind was really whipping around like it tends to do in San Fran. They were both struggling pretty mightily with command, and I am sure it’s just that those guys do sometimes. But it had me wondering…

Ben Clemens: I think it’s possible. Or at least that a lot of things associated with wind can

Ben Clemens: harder to be sure of your footing, changing winds can mess with ball flight, distracting thigns blowing around in the background, other things I haven’t thought of

Bosoxforlife: I love then Cal Raleigh story but just one look at what Aaron Judge has done in the past week, when it gets down to the nitty-gritty, should answer the question. Judge is the MVP!

Ben Clemens: I concur

Ben Clemens: I’ve never really wavered in that view, though I certainly get the instinct to give it to someone new

Ben Clemens: Cal is really fun and Judge is obviously great, he doesn’t need more awards to confirm it

Ben Clemens: but, uh, he’s the most valuable player?

Bosoxforlife: I couldn’t help but laugh at the thought that Dom Smith is an indispensable player.

Ben Clemens: It’s wild!

Ben Clemens: he’s been sneaky good this year though

Ben Clemens: 111 wRC+, his best since 2020. huge upgrade over LaMonte Wade Jr’s year (58 wRC+), and Wilmer Flores vs. a righty is not really where you want to be

Ben Clemens: it’s one of these ‘well for this team in particular, replacement level is not 0 WAR but -2 WAR’

2131, 1312: Jackson Holliday is back on track, no? Trying to get used to the streakiness for who knows how long

Ben Clemens: I mean…. prob… ably?

Ben Clemens: on the other hand it’s not like he had an incredible season, and it’s not like he improved massively as the year went on

Ben Clemens: 1st half wRC+: 102
2nd half wRC+: 102

Ben Clemens: maybe this is just who he is offensively? or like, at least in this general zip code

Ben Clemens: i will say, the walks are a GREAT sign

Ben Clemens: like I think the bust risk is probably not there anymore

Ben Clemens: but the star potential? I’m unconvinced

Guest: which one should i watch today , ashcraft or Yesavage

Thomas: Trey Yesavage and Bryce Eldridge both debuting today! Teams calling up top prospects to help for the stretch run is so much fun. Feels like the part in a fantasy novel where the young hero has to come in and save the day

Ben Clemens: I’m gonna try to watch Yesavage and Eldridge today

Ben Clemens: I mean, Ashcraft is very exciting, but I’ve seen him pitch in the bigs before

207: With two more homers not only does Judge join the 50×4 club that is only PED/Ruth, but also passes Griffey for most ever in 4 years that isn’t PED/Ruth. The PED era and juiced ball i think made homers less impressive but even with all that, 50×4 never suddenly happened outside of these guys.

Ben Clemens: Judge is the kind of shooting star that we shoudl be happy we get to see

Ben Clemens: in 50 years people are going to talk about Judge the way I talk about Mantle

JHench: In both of the races where teams flipped spots this past week (Houston/Seattle, Boston/New York), the only change to the playoff bracket was home field.  Is that high-enough stakes?

Ben Clemens: I’m gonna say yes, based on watching these games

Ben Clemens: seems like it had the crowd and players pretty juiced

Austin: Is Dillon Dingler the next JT Realmuto? He’s got a real claim to be the 2nd best catcher in the league this year. Or at least in the group trailing Raleigh. His combination of elite defense and line-drive contact remind me a lot of prime JT. He’s a pretty good athlete too!

Ben Clemens: he’s tremendously underrated, I’ll give you that

Ben Clemens: next JT Realmuto is a high bar

Insert Witty Name Here: In need of a new sauce for my rice bowls. I make a mean peanut, sesame, and general tso sauce, but need some fresh ideas.  No better place than a baseball chat! Whatcha got for me?

Ben Clemens: ooh

Ben Clemens: you know I clicked this one to answer with my peanut sauce recipe but you have that one

Ben Clemens: okay, here’s one for you: make your own chili oil for it. That lets you basically drizzle it on and kick things up a lot

Ben Clemens: I got a recipe from a book called Red Hot Kitchen, but I think there are a ton of options. you basically heat oil, drop in ground up peppers plus the other flavors you want (I tend to use bay leaves and sichuan peppers), and then let it cool and infuse

Ben Clemens: failing that, here’s one out of left field: walnut pesto

Ben Clemens: https://www.allrecipes.com/recipe/238199/walnut-pesto/

Ben Clemens: not sure that’s the best recipe but first I pulled up. It’d be more like a mediterranean rice bowl then

Guest: Might we see LDV debut in 2026? Even a month ago I would’ve said that was crazy, but it’s hard to argue with what he’s doing in AA

Ben Clemens: We might, but I would bet against it

Ben Clemens: that’s really fast for anyone, even a star player

David: Random MILB advocate. Got to attend the final game of the Northwest League Championship; Everett vs Eugene. Was an absolute blast of a game. Players were super into it, a walk was bat flipped, a pop up caused a player to spike his bat. Everett Players rushed the field to celebrate after. Minor league ball is the best.

Ben Clemens: I couldn’t agree more

Bill: What do you think of Tolle and Early and the other Sox minor league pitchers in the system?

Ben Clemens: I liked Dan’s article on Early quite a lot, and I haven’t really developed my own distinct opinion

Ben Clemens: Tolle, I love. I’m not sure he’s ready for prime time yet, but I watch him pitch and go ‘yeah this will work’

Brian: Did Skubal’s odds of cy young go up or down by being hurt (I know no big issues). It seems like up to me and that is a bad thing both for the game and for potential betting shenanigans?

Ben Clemens: I think they essentially didn’t change

Ben Clemens: he’s pretty clearly the best pitcher in the AL this year now that Crochet isn’t threatening him for the ERA title. Hunter Brown still ils, but c’mon, you’re gonna give hunter Brown the Cy over Tarik Skubal? nah

Brian: Ya thats my point. Sitting out games the system toward higher chances of winning via no blowups…If you had money on him you would want him to get hurt and whatnot.. that seems suboptimal, no???

Ben Clemens: Oh, I mean, I don’t think the odds have changed

Ben Clemens: you could imagine a world where it could matter, but I feel like it only works if you’re way out in front…. and, uh, Skubal was like a 1:20 favorite already

Ben Clemens: if you’re right in the middle, it won’t work, because you’re just giving your rivals a chance to pass you

Lock him up: After settling for Cedric Mullins over Laureano and Bader, missing out on Merrill Kelly, and adding Helsley(unforeseen backfire), can David Stearns do something obviously good?  For example, can Nolan McLean soon get a team friendly contract extension covering his arbitration years?

Ben Clemens: Would you settle for extending Pete Alonso (or re-signing him after he opts out, whatever, not concerned with technicalities)

Victoria: Is NL ROY the only compelling award race left?

Ben Clemens: It’s the only one that’s compelling to me, at least

Ben Clemens: I feel like if I had a vote, I would already be quite close to locking in my other votes

Ben Clemens: but I dunno. Horton and Baldwin, both great. Isaac Collins, underrated

Brian: How many AL rookies would win the NL award unanimously this year?

Ben Clemens: unanimously? probably 2

Ben Clemens: Anthony and Kurtz

Ben Clemens: ehh…. maybe 1

Ben Clemens: Anthony’s gonna end the year at 300 PA or so, Cade Horton might be the Cubs’ #1 starter when the playoffs start

Ben Clemens: like, would Anthony win? maybe

Ben Clemens: would ilt be unanimous? I expect not

Brian: not Wilson?

Ben Clemens: ehhhh…. maybe? I mean he definitely wouldn’t win unanimously

Ben Clemens: but yeah, that’s a fiar addition

Ben Clemens: I’m down on him, but the numbers are pretty good and voters love average

Lock him up: I wouldn’t be upset if Stearns decides to move on from Alonso if he has a good contingency plan, but do you think McLean gets an extension?

Ben Clemens: okay, this is WILD to me

Ben Clemens: Pete Alonso is one of the best Mets of the 21st century

Ben Clemens: Cohen’s money isn’t yours

Ben Clemens: you don’t want to root for Pete?

Ben Clemens: and like, McLean probably isn’t signing an extension this offseason

Ben Clemens: I’m sure they’ll try but there are few comps for a pitcher signing one this early when they’ve been as good as him

Ben Clemens: like, the Strider deal maybe?

Ben Clemens: but tehre’s not a lot of it, and Strider was kind of a weird case

2131, 1312: Cedric Mullins gets a guaranteed offer this offseason? I know the CF market is shallow this year, but man, he has not been at his best

Ben Clemens: I mean, I think he will. platoon CF kinda deal. if he’s intent on being a full-time starter that might be trickier, but I’m not expecting that

doughboy: Aside from Skubal, the Tigers seem to be a sum of their parts team. While this has never seemed like a sustainable successful team construction, they have the second best record in the AL. They have played just under .500 baseball since July 1st. What do we make of all this as they head into the playoffs? And even the Central isn’t the slam dunk it was looking to be.

Ben Clemens: I’m sorry, but they’re 6.5 up on Cleveland with 12 to play. If they don’t win the Central, this will be one of the worst collapses of all time

Ben Clemens: as to what ato make of them? I think I tend to agree with our odds, which basically never bought that they were the best team in teh AL, but also don’t buy that they’re below .500 true talent

Ben Clemens: you can’t know who will get hot, who will have the worst week of their life at the wrong time, who will click with a new approach

Ben Clemens: but a good bet is that they’ll make the DS with a bye, and then be an underdog against whoever they face

The M’s only win when I’m abroad: I’m not convinced that Judge is the obvious MVP choice. The fWAR differential is close to within WAR’s error bars (bWAR would be too if framing were factored in).

Ben Clemens: I mean…. sure

Ben Clemens: but, you’re not a voter, at least I assume not

Ben Clemens: and Aaron Judge is only 6 homers behind despite 40 fewer PA, and he’s hitting WAY better than Raleigh

Ben Clemens: now, if Raleigh goes nuts and hits 62, sure

Ben Clemens: but if the season ended today? Judge wouldn’t be unanimous but the odds aren’t 1:10 in his favor at betting sites on accident

Nick: Reds, Giants, Mets; Mariners, Angels, Rangers: Who makes the post-season?

Ben Clemens: Mets, M’s, Astros

Ben Clemens: who I assume you meant instead of Angels

Pinstriped Power: I love judge, but if Raleigh gets 60 how does he not get it

Ben Clemens: yeah, maybe I should have said 60 instead of 62. I have a little ‘chase for 62’ script ready for if he heats up

Ben Clemens: so my head went to 62

Nancy’s Friend Sluggo: Do you think some MVP voters will go for Raleigh over Judge because catcher is just a much tougher position? Is that valid reasoning?

Ben Clemens: Do I think some will? Sure. Is it valid? I mean…. WAR does give him more credit for it, but I don’t think you need to just vote via WAR

Ben Clemens: I don’t think that I would do that

Ben Clemens: but I wouldn’t say ‘well that’s irrational’

SPArn: A take: The ghost runner rule has ruined the walk off home run. Pat Bailey’s grand slam felt anti climactic

Ben Clemens: I don’t think I agree with this take, but it does sound interesting to check data-wise

Ben Clemens: like, is the average walkoff hit in lower leverage now?

Ben Clemens: personally, I was watching that game with my mom, stepdad, and wife, and all of us went nuts when he hit the homer and flipped the bat

Appa Yip Yip: Next JT realmuto this, second coming of Johnny bench that. When will the people be clamoring for the next Alejandro Kirk?

Ben Clemens: I am

Ben Clemens: why do you think I like Moises Ballesteros so much!

Ben Clemens: I’m so in the tank for Kirk

Ben Clemens: my only solace is that I’ve been right

Sean: Nice run by the M’s… especially the offense.  Which of the 3 AL West teams wins the West?

Ben Clemens: I’ll stick with the M’s

Ben Clemens: I’m just being consistent, I’ve been picking them a lot when people asked me this

Ben Clemens: and eh, it’s a crapshoot, but I think the M’s have the best chance

SPArn: Do you have a Daylen Lile take just yet? The professional hitter spirit of Howie Kendrick lives on in Washington!

Ben Clemens: I want to see more, but I’m kind of in, the statcast stuff is better than I would have expected

Ben Clemens: you know, you see the batting line that looks like it’s dependent on avoiding K’s and BABIP and go eh, I dunno, most players aren’t capable of doing that in the majors

Ben Clemens: but no, that’s not really his game, his stats just happen to look like that

Ben Clemens: Lotta doubles, not exclusively dependent on keeping SwStr% down

Ben Clemens: Kendrick is a fun comp, largely because I love Howie Kendrick

The Windy Citi: Somewhat misc. but I saw the wind question from earlier and was reminded of a recent Adam Ottavino (yes the pitcher) video where he analyzed exactly how the wind in Citi Field has affected pitch movement during some specific games.

Ben Clemens: this is really cool

Ben Clemens: (I’ve actually seen this before, I didn’t just watch it right now)

60: I mean if Judge goes full Judge he could have like 57.

Ben Clemens: also true. like, conditional on Cal going nuts and Judge not, yeah, gimme Cal

Ben Clemens: but that doesn’t seem THAT likely, even if iid

2131, 1312: Be careful there ben, don’t want to get automodded lol

Ben Clemens: oh god lol

Ben Clemens: good call

Ben Clemens: I’m in r/baseball and they have to call him ‘Alejandro LastName’

johnny dANGER: how come we don’t see as many Cuban defectors anymore?

Ben Clemens: I’d have to do a deeper dive to give you a super confident answer but basically, I think the talent has just left?

Ben Clemens: the cuban team hasn’t been as good in international competition, many of the shooting stars defected young and therefore didn’t ascend to stardom in Serie

Jason: What’s Cade Horton’s outlook next year? His stats this year are preposterous. I’m thinking sub 4 ERA again next year with maybe 8 K/9? hopefully can reach 170/180 innings

Ben Clemens: yeah I’m thinking more strikeouts, higher BABIP, more homers, but it adds up to a pretty good overall package

He Got Game (1998): How sticky is fielding percentage? Obviously there are MUCH better ways to determine if someone is a good fielder, but is a season of innings enough to determine that someone is better at the easy plays? Asking because Trea Turner has picked up 9-10 outs this year from avoiding errors and I’m trying to convince myself his huge defensive jump isn’t just sample size flukiness

Ben Clemens: It’s enough for me to revise my estimation up significantly. it’s also enough for me to note it to maybe study during the offseason. stickiness of 80%-100% out probability plays, maybe?

Opifijikl: What’s your favorite pitch ever? Why? ie Pedro changeup or Kershaw Curveball etc

Ben Clemens: oh, great question

Ben Clemens: okay Tommy Kahnle changeup is higher than it has any right to be

Ben Clemens: but: I like Framber’s curve a ton, but probably my favorite is Michael Wacha’s silly, looped-in curveball

Ben Clemens: because he still does it sometimes, and it’s one of the first things that clued me in to how pitchers were able to use different pitches with different interesting aims

Ben Clemens: his changeup is better, obv, but that silly, awful, cruveball

Ben Clemens: i love it

Insert Witty Name Here: Still want your peanut sauce recipe, be interesting to see if there’s any difference

Ben Clemens: oh sure. it’s kinda approximate, but I mix together creamy peanut butter, black vinegar, a splash of unseasoned rice vinegar, oil and spice (either just chili oil or handle both separately), a dash of brown sugar, and a dash of garlic

Ben Clemens: oh plus water to get the consistency right depending on what you want

Farhandrew Zaidman: I know Kershaw’s curveball gets all the flowers (and deservedly so, it’s filthy) but the slider is the pitch that made his career.

Ben Clemens: for sure

Ben Clemens: that said, the curve is just prettier

johnny dANGER: if every player was a free agent at the end of the season, who is signing the biggest contract?

Ben Clemens: I still think Ohtani if he wanted it

Ben Clemens: or rather, I think Ohtani if he wanted it

It’s Obvious But: The difference between Judge and Dumper’s WRC+ is the same as between Dumper and Spencer Torkelson.

Ben Clemens: yeah.but i mean, catcher is hard!

Ben Clemens: and he’s playing a good catcher while doing it, which is not nothing

Tacoby Bellsbury: A reminder on fielding percentage for infielders: A good athlete at first base (say, a Bryce Harper type instead of your metaphorical Rhys Hoskins) can save quite a few throwing errors from an infielder without it ever officially showing up in the box score.

Ben Clemens: true. although that tends to be sticky anyway because it’s more likely than not that your opening day 1b one year is still there the next year

2131, 1312: Bizarrely, Alex Jackson is actually in the midst of a legitimately respectable partial season as a hitter. He currently has 13 XBH and 7 singles in 90 PAs. Sure it means nothing, just fun and strange

Ben Clemens: wow, that’s kinda amazing

Victoria: How cool was Ballesteros hitting his first homer right to Rizzo?

Ben Clemens: extremely cool

2131, 1312: Do the rangers have another playoff run/appearance in them before they tear it down and rebuild? (or at least retool)

Ben Clemens: mmmmmmmm….. I think they have one more

Ben Clemens: I hope they have one more, I want dG in the playoffs one more time

Ben Clemens: I didn’t have deGrom’s fastball or slider in my list of favorite pitches, but he’s my favorite pitcher to watch

Ben Clemens: the tool that makes him so fun to watch is the command, though

Farhandrew Zaidman: I know it’s a little early for playoff roster decisions, but most teams in the WC/DS DON’T carry the full 13 pitchers, right?

Ben Clemens: WC, definitely. DS, I think it’s close

Ben Clemens: I think many teams will have 13 pitchers in teh DS and none will in the wild card round

Ben Clemens: okay, I have to go figure out lunch and keep churning away at the playoff odds article so I can have it nailed down for editing today

Ben Clemens: have a wonderful week eveyrone, and let’s talk again this time next week