Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat – 9/22/25

Ben Clemens: Hey everyone, let’s get started a little early today

Ben Clemens: I’m gonna slow my normal chatting pace down a little, I’m feeling slightly under the weather today, but probably that just means a longer chat while I procrastinate figuring out lunch. Let’s get started

The M’s only win when I’m abroad: Is it easy to run updated odds on Cal hitting 60, 61, etc? I’m going to the last two Dodgers games, and considering adding one or more Rockies games to the mix.

Ben Clemens: It sure is. I ran 62 earlier today and it looks like this:

Analysis of the ABSOLUTE probability of the 62nd HR occurring:
  Game Odds of Milestone Cumulative Odds
  1       0.05%      0.05%
  2       0.85%      0.90%
  3       2.94%      3.84%
  4       3.37%      7.21%
  5       4.79%     12.00%
  6       5.77%     17.77%

Ben Clemens: Here’s 63:
Analysis of the ABSOLUTE probability of the 63rd HR occurring:
  Game Odds of Milestone Cumulative Odds
  1       0.00%      0.00%
  2       0.11%      0.11%
  3       0.71%      0.82%
  4       1.14%      1.96%
  5       2.01%      3.97%
  6       2.91%      6.88%

Ben Clemens: And, eh, 60, why not?

Analysis of the ABSOLUTE probability of the 60th HR occurring:
  Game Odds of Milestone Cumulative Odds
  1       7.30%      7.30%
  2      14.80%     22.10%
  3      15.98%     38.09%
  4       9.76%     47.84%
  5       9.32%     57.17%
  6       8.02%     65.19%

Ben Clemens: So that’s just the same script as before, only it’s just for the last 6 games. should be pretty good

drplantwrench: happy last week of the season from another miserable angels fan 🙂 do the angels have anything to look forward to next year? or another year of misery?

Ben Clemens: plenty of fun players, Zach Neto is probably a star…. and yeah, I don’t know, this team is constructed bizarrely and doesn’t feel like it’s closer to making a plyaoff run, sorry

Reds Enjoyer: I don’t know what to do with my hands…

Ben Clemens: I think having them out, and confusingly varied between in the air, shaking at your sides, fist pumping, etc. is optimal

nat: Remember when the Red Sox had so many outfielders that they didn’t even have room for Nate Eaton?

Ben Clemens: I don’t even have a great answer to that

Ben Clemens: what a world we live in

Ben Clemens: That’s some of the fun of baseball. The Red Sox have the strangest roster problems, ones that mean they have too many outfielders – and yet, a 28-year-old org guy is slugging his way to the playoffs for them

Joe: Most disappointing team: Orioles or Atlanta?

Ben Clemens: I’m actually debating this question for a podcast segment I’m doing soon. I’m curious what you guys think

Ben Clemens:

The M’s only win when I’m abroad: Thanks so much for doing these weekly chats, Ben! So much awesome baseball content comes out of these every week!

Ben Clemens: I’m happy to do them, I think they’re pretty dang fun

Steven: I’m out of playoffs for this year and looking at my keeper options. Which of these SPs do you have the most excitement for next year: Mclean, Messick, or Logan Henderson?

Ben Clemens: Gimme McLean, the one who has done it most at the big league level. I mean, would you be surprised if he just kept doing it?

Taker55: Am I the only one who kind of roots against domed roof teams in October? I need the cold weather energy to get the full vibe

Ben Clemens: You are definitely not the only one, I love autumn leaves and baseball

Ben Clemens: unfortunately that argues against my home city, where there’s basically no autumn, but look, outdoor baseball is still great

Pistol Pete: How could the most disappointing team possibly not be the Mets?  They’ve disappointed fans nightly for three months.  Atlanta and Baltimore at least got the losing out of the way early.

drplantwrench: as always, my most disappointing team will be the angels <3

Ben Clemens: It’s hard to pick the Mets when they might easily make the playoffs…. but fair

Oaktown Blues: Did you end up going to an A’s game at SHP, and if so, what did you think?

Ben Clemens: I didn’t :(. I talked a big game but then at the end of the day I never got out there. Not pleased about it, to be honest, and next year I’m just going to go early in the season to make up for it

Ben Clemens: this was a rough year for traveling to watch baseball for me, not even any minor league games for the first time in a while. I just had a ton of fun trips that were non-baseball-related and didn’t feel like squeezing in extra baseball trips when I spend so much time watching baseball as it is

Steven: Bigger loss for their team: Woodruff or Will Smith?

Ben Clemens: Will Smith for me

Ben Clemens: I’m still not 100% sure I think Woodruff is all the way back, whereas losing Smith turns catcher from a huge edge to a big hole for the Dodgers

Lowe Distribution System: Make your wild guesses: AL Central title, AL 2nd and 3rd WC, NL 3rd WC

Ben Clemens: My guesses are boring, I hate to say: Tigers, Sox, Astros, Mets

Ben Clemens: I hate it

Ben Clemens: and I’m with our odds that it’s pretty close on all the spots

Ben Clemens: but eh, I’m boring!

Lowe Distribution System: Do you agree with Fangraphs that the Mariners are the favorite to win the World Series?  And pretty substantially so?

Ben Clemens: I don’t really agree with ‘substantially’ but I definitely see where our odds are coming from

Ben Clemens: We’ve liekd the Mariners all year, and thanks to the various additions they’ve made we think they’re one of the better teams in baseball

Ben Clemens: they also have a bye, and the only other team we see as being a)great b)having a bye is the Phillies

Ben Clemens: but the Phillies have the Dodgers in their way right away in a lot of outcomes, which sucks

Ben Clemens: so like…. I get what our odds are doing, the Dodgers not having a bye in the NL is knocking the top end of teh NL down

Bosoxforlife: The Red Sox still have too many outfielders but the reason Nate Eaton is playing is because he is absolutely doing the job.

Ben Clemens: yeah

Ben Clemens: when the rubber hits the road, you just have to play the guys who do well, and Eaton fits that category

Ben Clemens: The top Sox hitters in September are hilarious, by the way: Eaton, Trevor Story, Rob Refsnyder, Romy Gonzalez, then a huge gap of 30 points of wRC+ before we get to Jarren Duran

Ben Clemens: bottom 4 with meaningful PT? Rafaela, Narvaez, Bregman, Yoshida

Bustin Aarnes: What does it say about how the dodgers view Rushing if he was immediately usurped by some guy they traded for as an afterthought?

Ben Clemens: it says exactly what you said there

NYYEnjoyer: Insane offseason idea: The A’s should trade Leo De Vries+ to the Twins for Joe Ryan and Pablo Lopez. Would instantly be the AL West favorites.

Ben Clemens: I mean…. I would not make them AL West favorites after that trade, lol

Ben Clemens: and I think my argument – they just finished 15 games behind the Mariners and added two players – would be solid

Ben Clemens: not that I wouldn’t be looking to upgrade pitching if I were teh A’s, but I think that for a team that has made it incredibly clear that spending to retain players is not really an option, splurging for a quick fix is probably not what you want to be doing

Pat: IF the Tigers don’t make it to the playoffs (from best record in baseball on 7/8 to missing out), what is the cause? Certainly were playing over their heads, but, not THAT much, right? Feels like the lack of moves for a hitter/SP at the deadline are going to cause a lot of discussion/offseason heartburn for Scott Harris & Co.

Ben Clemens: So, ‘what is the cause’ is one of those unanswerable questions, but I feel like that’s especially the case here

Ben Clemens: they even traded for a pitcher, it jsut didn’t work

Ben Clemens: I think that it would have been reasonable to look at the offense and say that it probably couldn’t keep performing this well

Ben Clemens: but it was a weak year for acquiring offense, so I don’t know…. Naylor and Suarez? it’s not like they have obvious places to play on this team, Tork has been good, and I think they’d have trouble benching McKinstry even though he’s been only so so in the second half

Ben Clemens: sometimes you just draw the short end of the stick

OsAreFun: Javier Baez was an AS but look at him after the break

Ben Clemens: Right, you could replace him? and then slide McKinstry to short? I don’t know, that doesn’t sound amazing to me

Ben Clemens: Suarez has cooled way off, too, just as you’d probably expect

Ben Clemens: I guess the point is that these would have felt like marginal upgrades

Ben Clemens: I think that amybe they could have gottne more depth, but I don’t hate what they did, and think that they’ve just gotten a bit unlucky

Justin: Dodgers world series odds at 15% despite not having a first round bye seems very high to me. Am I off-base on that?

Ben Clemens: It just depends how favored you think the Dodgers are in a three-game series, basically

Ben Clemens: we think they’re overwhelming favorites. You could slide that down if you’d like, and honestly, our model back tests fairly well but I’m always skeptical of saying we can’t do it better

Ben Clemens: i’d probably slide them down – but they’re the obvious standout favorites if they win their first round, so

OsAreFun: Dodgers Bullpen looks weak but they will probably move a few starters in there right?

Ben Clemens: yeah 100%. Maybe even shohei?!!?

O’sAreFun: A’s have 3 young players who are looking good, they need to build a pitching staff to supplement that

Ben Clemens: concur

Ben Clemens: so I’d like to make incremental moves rather than go for it

Darren: Is it fair to call the Mets the ‘unluckiest’ team in at least the NL?  -8 from the BaseRuns record and ~11 WAR or potential value lost to injury (esp pitching).  Roster isn’t far from top WS contender terriroty

Ben Clemens: sure, if you’d like, but not including hte Braves in that seems a bit weird to me, they’ve felt snakebitten

Ben Clemens: Dodgers too

Ben Clemens: I think trying to define unluckiest is just hard

NYYEnjoyer: Am I wrong for thinking the Yankees/Mariners/Phillies/Dodgers are far and away the best teams in the bracket and it’d be pretty shocking if the WS wasn’t a combination of two of them

Ben Clemens: So, I agree with teh first half of what you said

Ben Clemens: but I don’t agree with the second half

Ben Clemens: two of these teams are going to play three-game series where the loser is out

Ben Clemens: three baseball games!

jenmarz: Worst team you think should feel like they have a realistic chance at making the WS?

Ben Clemens: I guess the Reds b/c they’re the worst team with a playoff shot in my eyes

Victoria: The Reds playing Pittsburgh and Milwaukee feels like such an edge over the Mets playing the Cubs and Fish

Ben Clemens: playing in the NLC is nice, but of course, with the more balanced schedule there’s not a huge difference over all 162

Ben Clemens: it’s an edge, but the Mets just had three against the Nats

jenmarz: Historically, being “hot” or “cold” in September doesn’t seem to have a ton of bearing on postseason success. Which “cold” team would you pick, out of all of them, to make it to the WS?

Ben Clemens: the Mets because it would be funniest

Lowe Distribution System: If you’d told me at the beginning of the season that Jackson Holliday would lead the Orioles in HR I’d have said that the Orioles must be awesome.  Alas how wrong I would be

Ben Clemens: right??

Ben Clemens: he didn’t lead the way you want him to (breakout) but the scary way (everyone else regresses)

Ben Clemens: sorry, had to run and get a delivery, let’s restart

Hopeless jays fan: Likewise with the yanks, they don’t look like they’ll get the bye and are still heavily favoured. Do you think these odds are valid

Ben Clemens: I mean, we’ve done a lot of backtesting. I’m not sure what you mean by valid, but they do a fairly good job

Ben Clemens: I think that it’s possible we oversell talent, but I don’t think it’s by a ton

Spherical Appreciation: Thanks for doing these all season! What was your favorite Dead song you heard at GD60?

Ben Clemens: Oh, Truckin’, because I wasn’t expecting it

Ben Clemens: and when it came in, the place went relatively nuts

Bosoxforlife: I am beginning to think that Josh Naylor, in some strange way, is in the conversation for the most underrated player in the game today.

Ben Clemens: yeah at the very least, player you’d love having on your team but maybe don’t know you’d love having on your team

Ben Clemens: if you see Naylor plya, you’re like ooh that’s so fun!

Sad Fan: For the 2nd straight year arizona will be one of the best teams not to make the playoffs. Besides escaping the NL West, what do they need to do?

Ben Clemens: Have the season play out a little better. I didn’t hate their decision to sell, but like…. reverse the halves, and they’re buying not sellnig

Ben Clemens: and then almost certainly making the plyaoffs

Ben Clemens: path dependency is a jerk

Oaktown Blues: “Hey FanGraphs man who just wrote two articles confirming that FG playoff odds do a good job. These odds seem pretty wrong, huh?”

Ben Clemens: Haha look, I’m still gonna answer the questions. But yeah, I spend a lot of time testing our odds because I too get kind of skeptical of them. And I think that our playoff odds could be better if we used a more granular model, like Dan’s ZiPS game-by-game odds

Ben Clemens: basically we have an abstracted model that considers total team strength, whereas dan looks at the individual pitchers projected per game

Ben Clemens: ours is great to run every five minutes all season long, and we use his for an enhanced look at playoff matchups

TigersFan1: Do you think the Tigers’s collapse is due to their questionable deadline moves?

Ben Clemens: definitely not

Ben Clemens: i think that maybe their deadline moves could have cushioned them more

Ben Clemens: but eh, I didn’t think they had a particularly poor deadline. They just ran out of gas too soon

Ben Clemens: and also maybe they’ll just win the world series anyway

Ben Clemens: baseball’s weird

Justin: As a a guy who asked a question about playoff odds, I would like to say I really support and appreciate the fangraphs odds and also thank you for answering my question

Ben Clemens: thank you. and yeah, look, questioning the odds is good

Ben Clemens: they don’t get better by us not questioning them

Ben Clemens: I have an article coming out tomorrow about a way to do pythagorean expectation that accounts for blowouts and position players pitching better

Ben Clemens: I’m always trying to find something we can improve

Wrights_back: The Mets.  Not a question but a lament worthy of Psalms

Ben Clemens: And yea, ask thyself
Whether ’tis better to have Soto and not appreciate it
Or to dare greatly, then fail

Derek bell’s Jeep: Should Jays fans be pushing the panic button?

Ben Clemens: no, stop it, they’ve won 90 games and they’re even 11-8 in September

OsAreFun: As an O’s fan, should I be worried because of this season?

Ben Clemens: ah, now THIS

Ben Clemens: yes

Ben Clemens: what a bummer season for Baltimore. I mean, they looked pretty good after the first two months, my long-term expectation of their talent level hasn’t changed markedly

Ben Clemens: But on the other hand, this was a big year for them. They didn’t make the playoffs. Their two best players had down years. They have two more years of Adley and three of Gunnar, and they haven’t cashed in nearly enough on that

Ben Clemens: look at the 2016 era Cubs, probably the philosophical equivalent of the O’s, hitter-heavy in their tank and rebuild phase and acquiring pitchers as they competed

Ben Clemens: they’d accomplished a lot more by this point. and when their stars neared free agency and started costing more, they fell off

appa yip yip: the thing about baseball is if you win 6 in a row then lose 4 in a row you went 6 and 4 over a 10 game span which will get you 97 wins if you do it all season. which is what the jays did before their win last night.

Ben Clemens: well said

Ben Clemens: it’s just so frustrating as a fan when you’re in the moment

TigersFan1: I think the Tigers’s collapse is due to their pitching depth. They haven’t hit well lately, but if they had decent pitchers we would have probably already clinched the playoffs. I am infuriated as a Tigers fan.

Ben Clemens: yeah, if there’s anything the Tigers will regret about the deadline, it’s that they didn’t react to the Reese Olson injury news by leaning harder into acquiring pitching

Ben Clemens: I think that Justin Verlander was there for the taking if they really wanted him, that would have been fun. Morton was probably cheaper but knowing that you only have a few locked in options, why not shoot multiple shots?

OsAreFun: who are your favorite prospects this year? regardless of games, just how they looked in the majors(not named Nick Kurtz because he looks like a beast after this season)

Ben Clemens: so, Kurtz is probably number one, but yeah, doesn’t really count as a prospect anymore

Ben Clemens: dude’s just a very good mlb player

Ben Clemens: so obviously, then, daylen lile

Ben Clemens: so fun!

Ben Clemens: so fast, Howie Kendrick level desire to swing the bat and put the ball in play

The M’s only win when I’m abroad: Has there ever been a position player who’s been left in to give up 10 runs? That Royals game was wild.

Ben Clemens: it made for a great hook for my article about modifying Pythag

Justin: Not even Steve Cohen and Juan Soto could save the Mets from cosmic forces

Ben Clemens: i mean, we’ll see

Dirt: That Nats team is pretty fun to watch. Nasim Nunez was good Rule 5 pick

Ben Clemens: I mean…. maybe!

Ben Clemens: I’m a big Nas Nunez fan, for the record. He had an awesome card in OOTP as a future star one year and I played him extensively

Ben Clemens: but like, maybe he can’t hit

Ben Clemens: really fun utility player, I think he might be in a 5 things this week, but his career 82 wRC+ is probably overestimating him

Ben Clemens: very fun to watch, though

Ben Clemens: they have some stars and some youth

Insert Witty Name Here: What are your thoughts on the player celebrations everytime they get on base? Some of them seem overly forced and after 162 games of the same thing…I’m like…meh.

Ben Clemens: yep, agreed

Ben Clemens: I get that they need to do something to keep work fun

Ben Clemens: I do a lot of goofy stuff to keep work fun

Ben Clemens: but eh, it’s not really for us, I’d say

Ben Clemens: they’re probably for the players. I just kind of ignore them unless they’re very funny

OsAreFun: Do you think that there should be more than 5 categories for prospects. Ex. eye for balls and strikes, contact skills, clutch

Ben Clemens: I don’t really think ‘clutch’ is a very good one just based on our persistent inability to predict it higher than a tiny, infinitessimal edge

Ben Clemens: but yes, Eric sometimes breaks out hit tool between approach and bat-to-ball, and that’s how I think of it too

Dirt: Health/Availability should be considered a tool

Ben Clemens: I think that a)it is b)it’s very hard to measure

Jazz: Not to get you canceled but do you agree if Jazz, um, looked different, his outspoken nature would be seen as hustle grit real baseball etc etc?

Ben Clemens: I mean, obviously?

Carl: What are writers/analysts/pundits/bloggers etc missing with the Brewers? As in every year they are predicted to do a lot worse than they are. Followed by the same people who predicted that, writing about how we shouldn’t be surprised they do well and stop underestimating them. Followed by predicting them to do badly again the next year, writing the same articles etc.

Like this is not meant to be about baseball journalism really, more about what it is about the way they build their teams that is hard to value properly. Is it about defense? Depth? (Bench, and 40-man churn) Pitcher usage? Platooning? All these combined? Something else entirely?

Ben Clemens: I finally ended a very profitable run of taking the over on the Brewers’ season win totals every year

Ben Clemens: b/c they were consistently in the 70s while the Brewers kept winning hte NLC

Ben Clemens: I think that the hardest thing for projections (ours included) is that the Brewers consistently rank among the league leaders in defensive value and baserunning value

Ben Clemens: our projection systems regress both pretty hard

Ben Clemens: but like, in the past 5 years, the Brewers have a 100 wRC+ and a 96 FIP-

Ben Clemens: in other words, their hitting at the plate and k/bb/HR pitching on the mound are pretty close to average

Ben Clemens: but they’re third in baserunning value and first in defensive value

Ben Clemens: and thus, third overall in wins

Ben Clemens: our projections, which are heavily based on the ‘stable’ skills like wRC+ and FIP, see that the Brewers are very average

Ben Clemens: and we just over-regress the otehr stuff

Ben Clemens: it’s a tough problem, basically

LB: Kinda nitpicking a pointless argument here, but is there any real reason to view the Guardians as better than the Reds in terms of the “worst playoff team” question? Reds lead in hitter WAR, pitcher WAR, and have a better RD by over 40 runs (and, I’d argue, specifically a better postseason calling card in their pitching staff). Guards have the better record, obviously, but not sure they’re *better*

Ben Clemens: not at all. I jsut picked one

Lars: Do umpires call more borderline pitches strikes in certain counts? Seems like it happens way more at 3-0 – especially when the batter starts to head to first before the call – but might just be a narrative I’ve built.

Ben Clemens: totally true, and it’s included in our framing models

Ben Clemens: your odds of having a particular pitch called a strike are adjusted by count so that hte catcher isn’t given excessive skill for ‘framing’ a bunch of 3-0 pitches that ujmpires are just rubber stamping

J: There would be no funnier outcome than the Cubs sweeping the Mets after getting swept by the Reds. Maybe we can re-ignite the Cubs-Mets rivalry of yore.

Ben Clemens: separately, right now, my Mets fan friend said he wasn’t sure whether this would be funnier, or sweeping the cubs and then getting wrecked by the Marlins would be funnier

Ben Clemens: I’m honestly not sure which would be more amusing as a neutral fan

Hank: On the “get on base” celebration issues, I can certainly take or leave them — but I will say my 10-year old loves them and probably has 1/2 the teams’ memorized.  So, there is an audience out there (even if it’s not the player’s intention).

Ben Clemens: wow, that’s hard to memorize all those, I’m impressed

Ben Clemens: yeah, I don’t think they detract from the game for me at all, and it sounds like in some ways they add to it, so great

John: It feels wild that the Mariners bullpen has gone on this run in September when I assumed that would be their undoing at the deadline. How legit is that or is it more just the normal variance of bullpen performance?

Ben Clemens: probably more the second

Ben Clemens: but like…. the second is a really strong force

Disgruntled Mets Fan: Among all the teams with collapses at some point this season (think especially Braves, Orioles, Mets, Tigers) which ones are indicative of significant holes that had been overlooked and will likely be relevant in 2026 and which ones are just rotten luck? Feels like with the Mets specifically it’s hard to directly act on the collapse outside of just addressing CF (maybe Trent Grisham, but even there Jett Williams and Carson Benge both look to potentially fit there long term)

Ben Clemens: I think that the Mets and O’s look a lot like what I thought might happen to those teams – I think the Mets collapse is more about pitching than CF, really

Ben Clemens: like it’s nice that the rookies have done alright but the guys they thought would be good being quite bad, and the bullpen having holes, have both been really meaningful

Ben Clemens: but it’s about CF too, and I htink that they’re probably going to be trying to address both this offseason

Ben Clemens: the O’s, yeah, we knew that their pitching had to be amazing to have a chance, and it wasn’t

Ben Clemens: I think that the Braves probably can’t learn much from their bad year aside from the fact that they’ve invested so much in the starting lineup that if their stars don’t produce, it’s hard to make up value around the edges

Ben Clemens: and the Tigers? Yes, I think there’s a lesson here. YOu really need a LOT of above average players in addition to some stars to not have big stretches of bad play

TigersFan1: Who do you think is the favorite from the AL? It feels like their is no clear favorite and every team has some kind of big weakness. Personally, I say Red Sox or Mariners.

Ben Clemens: Yeah, I’m with our odds in saying that I think there are no obviously great teams and so just take one of the squads with a bye

Ben Clemens: I like the M’s more than the Jays, so I’ll take the M’s, but those are my two options for sure

Insert Witty Name Here: So my 3 year old just started tee ball, and I think it’s the funnest thing ever to see a bunch of kids dogpile over a weakly hit ground ball. My question is, when can I start telling other parents that it’s way too early for their baseball prodigies to understand launch angle?

Ben Clemens: I think you should just do it now

Ben Clemens: bring a trackman to that scrimmage

Ben Clemens: put a force plate down next to the orange slices and see which kids stomp over there most aggressively

Lars: In a bizarro universe, would a hitter with 150 walks (and none intentional) have the same WAR as the same hitter with all 150 walks being intentional?

Ben Clemens: so, no

Ben Clemens: we talked about this a few chats ago but we strip intentional walks out of wRC+ (and WAR) adn replace them with a PA at the player’s IBB-excluded seasonal line

Smiling Politely: The Dodger bullpen has truly been terrible, but am I right to think concerns about it in the postseason (esp a best of 5) are overblown because of how they can deploy guys like Sheehan and Ohtani as relievers (and the apparent ability of Yama/Glasnow/Snell to go 6-7)?

Ben Clemens: yeah, I concur

Ben Clemens: and that’s why I like our projection of the Dodgers as the goliaths of the NL despite a lack of byes

Dirt: Are HBP valued the same as a BB in wrc+?

Ben Clemens: they’re actually valued slightly higher

Ben Clemens: why? because we value each event based on the average improvement in run scoring chances over all the situations where that event takes place, weighted by the relative frequency of its occurrence in each place

Ben Clemens: walks disproportionately occur with first base open, so they’re less valuable than you’d expect a ‘random’ 1 base advancement to be

Ben Clemens: HBP’s are pretty much random

Ben Clemens: hence, better than a walk on average

Oaktown Blues: I think this is your 3rd chat this season where the BB vs IBB WAR issue has come up

Ben Clemens: it’s very confusing!

Ben Clemens: but yeah, hey, good thing we have chats to answer it

Disgruntled Mets Fan: Follow-up: Does some sort of consolidation trade to get a Joe Ryan type (think Senga + Megill + back top 30) and buffer more consistency work? I’m honestly more confident with the bullpen given just how good it was early in the season before so many guys went down, and Stearns has a track record of forming strong bullpens from spare parts, but honestly past the three rookies and Manaea (who I trust because when not injured he’s been very good) who is actually trustable

Ben Clemens: yeah, I think I’m generally in favor of this plan, or signing someone

Stearns: Will he ever stop being Smart Astro Man and sign an ace?

Ben Clemens: this is the winter

Scott M: What is the best way to guesstimate injuries for players? Is there a good way?

Ben Clemens: I haven’t found a good way yet

Okra: Has MLB officially announced that ball/strike challenge system is coming next year?  what are the official rules?

Ben Clemens: I have not seen an announcement anywhere, so I don’t think so

Ben Clemens: but it’ll probably match the ST/minor league rules

Ben Clemens: in the all star game, each team got to challenge until they’d been wrong twice, only the pitcher batter and catcher can challenge

Ben Clemens: I think some version of that is likely

Jeremy: As a Phillies fan, obviously I’m happy they haven’t collapsed. And I’m aware that a lot of things have gone right for them this year, especially overall health. But yet I still find myself focusing on, and worrying about, the few things have gone wrong (Wheeler injury, Nola suddenly bad, Alvarado suspended for the playoffs). Does unadulterated fan joy only come from unexpected overachievement, like the Tigers surprise run to the playoffs last year? Or do fans of juggernauts also experience unadulterated joy, because they not only expect to crush all in their path this year but also expect to do it again every year, indefinitely?

Ben Clemens: This is probably a hedonic treadmill issue

Ben Clemens: My wife’s a Packers fan, one of the most successful franchises in NFL history. I know a ton of Yankees and Dodgers fans. They’re all unsatisfied plenty of the time

Ben Clemens: that’s just how it works

Ben Clemens: I think that no one gets unadulterated joy, but that the really hard part about sports is trying to find a lot of joy in it anyway

Ben Clemens: the good news is, to quote jay-z quoting probably everyone else in history, joy wouldn’t feel so good if it wasn’t for pain

Ben Clemens: or alternately, ‘a rainbow, then the clouds come out, we do it again’

Carl: Thanks for the answer regarding what projections miss about the Brewers. But the writers/pundits would know what the weaknesses of the projections are, and should be able to adjust for that (i.e not regress defense/baserunning as much, for example), yet they don’t. So I feel there is more to it than just the aspect of projections. Because, if anything, my impression is that the projections are generally higher on the Brewers than the predictions are.

Ben Clemens: yeah, now that I can’t explain

Ben Clemens: I’m with you in general

Ben Clemens: I think maybe the centrals are both under-represented in forecasts

Ben Clemens: and that people misunderstand lower projections vs. the fact that variance is still high

Bosoxforlife: Early. Tolle and Harrison vs. McLean, Tong and Sproat. Who ya’ got?

Ben Clemens: so, I have it like: McLean, Tolle, Tong, Sproat, Harrison

Ben Clemens: I’m just down on Harrison, I don’t know, I watched him a ton here and maybe the Red Sox will fix him but they’re gonna have to convince me

LB: 50 Cent on that “joy wouldn’t be . . .” quote (from “Many Men”)

Ben Clemens: there you go. it’s also jay-z from ‘guns n roses’ and I’m not sure which was earlier

TigersFan1: Do you think PCA in the first or second half is who he really is? I think he is a good hitter, but not as good as he was in the first half. If he gets back to his first half form, he is the best 5-tool player and the third best player in baseball.

Ben Clemens: so as I mentioned when I was doing trade value, I knocked PCA’s forecasts down more than any other player

Ben Clemens: so I guess I’m more like second half. I don’t htink he’s this bad, either, but the first half production was clearly not sustainable

didace: Writers predictions – Writers, like many coaches, value talent. The problem is that they see talent as “hit ball hard” and “throw ball fast”. Now, those certainly are talents, but they aren’t everything.

Ben Clemens: yeah, this is believable too

Ben Clemens: anyway, I don’t know, projections and predictions tend to fade the centrals in general and the Brewers and Guardians in particular

Steven: How will analysts change the value of pitch framing once the ball/strike challenges come in? I assume there will still be some value, but to the point of usefulness?

The M’s only win when I’m abroad: With an ABS challenge system, do you expect some hitters will get green and red lights to challenge based on their ability to tell balls vs. strikes? Separately, does FG have any plans for measuring challenge “skill” similar to framing?

Ben Clemens: alright, let’s answer these balls and strikes questions before calling it a day

Ben Clemens: so, we’ll still measure framing the same, I think. And just exclude any pitches where there was a review? because on those pitches, there’s no skill at framing to be measured

Ben Clemens: they’re just a strike or not regardless

Ben Clemens: and I mean, absolutely we’ll measure who’s best and worst at it

Ben Clemens: I really want to know

Ben Clemens: and now, a lightning round before leaving

Scott M: The FG chats are a good mental-health break for me every week. I always look forward to them, and appreciate all of you who do this. Thanks for being here; thanks for being you.

Ben Clemens: why thank you very much; I hope that everyone enjoys these and gets at least a little out of it

First Base Free Agents: Any ballpark predictions for the contract results of guys like Alonso, Naylor, Flores, Santana, Goldschmidt, O’Hearn, Arraez? Alonso reunion with NYM still looks likely but the actual contract value feels up in the air and there’s just so much variance here with a lot of buy-lows (and Santana might just retire)

Ben Clemens: I’m working on my projections, but not that much because we don’t publish them until right after the world series

Ben Clemens: I think that it probably goes Alonso/Naylor/Arraez/O’Hearn in terms of how much teams are interested in each, but I haven’t really finalzied my thoughts there yet at all

Insert Witty Name Here: Where the hell do you get black vinegar? Wanted to try your peanut sauce recipe out, but if Whole Foods didn’t have it (or I missed it?)

Ben Clemens: oh man, it’s a pain!

Ben Clemens: i go to 99 Ranch or another asian market, or I order it online on Weee

Ben Clemens: it’s SUCH a good flavor, very frustrating how hard it is to find

Ben Clemens: it’s alternately called chinkiang vinegar in some places, if that helps

Bosoxforlife: How many challenges do you think each team will have?

Ben Clemens: 3?

TigersFan1: I’d also like to to thank you with these chats. I love talking ball, but don’t have many people to talk with. This is very fun.

Ben Clemens: Love it ,and I’m glad we can help

Ben Clemens: everyone who works at FanGraphs does it because they love baseball and want other people to love baseball

Ben Clemens: so hearing that people like our stuff is really gratifying

Ben Clemens: alright, have a wonderful week everyone, and when we talk next Monday, it’ll be a playoff preview

Ben Clemens: woohooooo

Bosoxforlife: I schedule my Monday’s around your chat!!!!

Ben Clemens: and I greatly appreciate it

Ben Clemens: what a reader base, we’re spoiled by all of you