Beyond the Surface

One of my biggest baseball pet peeves is when current pitching barometers (W-L and ERA) are, on their own, used to make extreme analytical claims. I have no problem if ERA is used as one of many metrics in an analysis, or if W-L is somehow adjusted to take several outside factors into account, but on their own, they do not really tell us much. With that in mind, let’s play a little game. Below are some numbers from 2007 and some from 2008, from the same pitcher:

Year    K/9     BB/9     K/BB      WHIP
2007    8.70    1.79     4.85      1.14
2008    8.74    1.81     4.83      1.23

They look pretty identical, right? Yes, the WHIP is slightly higher, but still a very good 1.23. Additionally, the strikeout and walk rates are not only fantastic, but essentially the same. This pitcher’s record last year was 20-7, and he posted a 3.27 ERA. This year, he is 11-9 with a 4.34 ERA. Using just those barometers, he is doing much worse this year. Couple it with the strikeout, walk, and baserunner numbers above, and you should see that the W-L and ERA may be a little fishy in their evaluation.

If you haven’t already guessed, I’m talking about Adam Eaton Josh Beckett of the Red Sox.

Now, there are other numbers we need to consider, since the barometers and more advanced numbers I posted do not show everything, but my overall point is that Beckett has not been nearly as bad as his W-L and ERA would make many Red Sox fans think. His numbers are worse this year, but not by much. Why are they worse?

Well, last year he surrendered 0.76 HR/9, had a .316 BABIP, and stranded 75.2% of the runners that reached base. This year, he has a 1.02 HR/9, a .330 BABIP, and a 69.4% strand rate. Put together, he has allowed more baserunners, has been worse at preventing them from scoring, and has allowed more balls to leave the park. Since his BB and K numbers are the same, the rise in HR/9 has resulted in an FIP increase from 3.08 to 3.32. So, yes, he has been worse this year than last, but a lot of it has to do with the higher BABIP. On top of that, a 3.32 FIP is rather great, and signals that his controllable skills are still darn good.

Interesting to note, his xFIP, which normalizes the home run component of FIP, says he is actually pitching better this year. Last year, his xFIP was 3.56, while it comes in at 3.35 this year. As his numbers stand right now, this would be the first year of Beckett’s career in which he surrendered more hits than innings pitched, largely due to the increase in BABIP. His velocity and movement look pretty similar this and last year as well, meaning some problems could stem from either poor location, or quite simply, bad luck.

His WPA and WPA/LI do not appear to be on pace to match last year’s numbers, but his controllable skills and performance have not been bad to the point that Sox fans should question if he has lost something. This could just be something similar to Jake Peavy’s 2006 season.