Boston Red Sox Top 45 Prospects

Below is an analysis of the prospects in the farm system of the Boston Red Sox. Scouting reports were compiled with information provided by industry sources as well as my own observations. This is the fifth year we’re delineating between two anticipated relief roles, the abbreviations for which you’ll see in the “position” column below: MIRP for multi-inning relief pitchers, and SIRP for single-inning relief pitchers. The ETAs listed generally correspond to the year a player has to be added to the 40-man roster to avoid being made eligible for the Rule 5 draft. Manual adjustments are made where they seem appropriate, but we use that as a rule of thumb.
A quick overview of what FV (Future Value) means can be found here. A much deeper overview can be found here.
All of the ranked prospects below also appear on The Board, a resource the site offers featuring sortable scouting information for every organization. It has more details (and updated TrackMan data from various sources) than this article and integrates every team’s list so readers can compare prospects across farm systems. It can be found here.
| Rk | Name | Age | Highest Level | Position | ETA | FV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Roman Anthony | 21.1 | MLB | LF | 2025 | 60 |
| 2 | Kristian Campbell | 23.0 | MLB | 2B | 2025 | 60 |
| 3 | Marcelo Mayer | 22.5 | MLB | SS | 2025 | 55 |
| 4 | Franklin Arias | 19.6 | A+ | SS | 2028 | 50 |
| 5 | Richard Fitts | 25.5 | MLB | SP | 2025 | 50 |
| 6 | Payton Tolle | 22.6 | A+ | SP | 2026 | 50 |
| 7 | Brandon Clarke | 22.2 | A+ | SP | 2028 | 50 |
| 8 | Jhostynxon Garcia | 22.5 | AAA | CF | 2026 | 45+ |
| 9 | Connelly Early | 23.2 | AA | MIRP | 2026 | 45+ |
| 10 | Carlos Narváez | 26.6 | MLB | C | 2025 | 45 |
| 11 | Dorian Soto | 17.4 | R | SS | 2031 | 45 |
| 12 | Juan Valera | 19.1 | A+ | SP | 2028 | 45 |
| 13 | Jedixson Paez | 21.4 | A+ | SP | 2026 | 45 |
| 14 | James Tibbs III | 22.7 | AA | RF | 2027 | 45 |
| 15 | Mikey Romero | 21.5 | AA | 3B | 2028 | 45 |
| 16 | Yoeilin Cespedes | 19.8 | A | 2B | 2029 | 45 |
| 17 | Luis Perales | 22.2 | AA | SIRP | 2025 | 45 |
| 18 | Hunter Dobbins | 25.8 | MLB | SP | 2025 | 40+ |
| 19 | Andruw Musett | 19.6 | A | C | 2029 | 40+ |
| 20 | David Sandlin | 24.3 | AA | SIRP | 2026 | 40+ |
| 21 | Sadbiel Delzine | 17.5 | R | SP | 2031 | 40+ |
| 22 | Miguel Bleis | 21.3 | A+ | CF | 2026 | 40 |
| 23 | Harold Rivas | 17.1 | R | CF | 2031 | 40 |
| 24 | Conrad Cason | 18.9 | R | SP | 2029 | 40 |
| 25 | Nelly Taylor | 22.4 | A+ | CF | 2028 | 40 |
| 26 | John Holobetz | 22.9 | A+ | SP | 2028 | 40 |
| 27 | Blaze Jordan | 22.5 | AAA | 1B | 2025 | 40 |
| 28 | Blake Wehunt | 24.6 | AA | MIRP | 2026 | 40 |
| 29 | Yordanny Monegro | 22.7 | AA | SIRP | 2027 | 40 |
| 30 | Zach Ehrhard | 22.4 | AA | RF | 2028 | 40 |
| 31 | Yophery Rodriguez | 19.6 | A+ | CF | 2028 | 40 |
| 32 | Marvin Alcantara | 20.6 | AA | SS | 2027 | 40 |
| 33 | Tyler Uberstine | 26.1 | AAA | MIRP | 2026 | 40 |
| 34 | Hayden Mullins | 24.8 | AA | SIRP | 2027 | 40 |
| 35 | Enddy Azocar | 18.3 | A | RF | 2029 | 35+ |
| 36 | Jose Bello | 20.1 | R | SP | 2029 | 35+ |
| 37 | Yhoiker Fajardo | 18.7 | A | SP | 2029 | 35+ |
| 38 | Blake Aita | 22.0 | A+ | SP | 2028 | 35+ |
| 39 | Starlyn Nunez | 19.7 | A | SS | 2029 | 35+ |
| 40 | Luis Guerrero | 24.9 | MLB | SIRP | 2025 | 35+ |
| 41 | Shane Drohan | 26.5 | AAA | MIRP | 2025 | 35+ |
| 42 | Alex Hoppe | 26.5 | AAA | SIRP | 2026 | 35+ |
| 43 | Dalton Rogers | 23.4 | AA | MIRP | 2026 | 35+ |
| 44 | Jojo Ingrassia | 22.9 | A+ | MIRP | 2027 | 35+ |
| 45 | Matt McShane | 22.6 | A+ | SIRP | 2028 | 35+ |
Other Prospects of Note
Grouped by type and listed in order of preference within each category.
Too Many Strikeouts for Main
Allan Castro, OF
Nazzan Zanetello, SS
Antonio Anderson, 3B
Freili Encarnacion, 1B/3B
Ahbram Liendo, INF
Castro’s offensive output took on a stronger power-over-hit flavor in 2024, as he slashed .243/.363/.449 at High-A before he tanked during the final month in Portland. He’s off to a pretty good surface-level start there in 2025 (with a wRC+ hovering around 130), but he has looming strikeout issues against better velocity from both sides of the plate. Castro will crush softer mistakes but is long into the zone. He’s playing center field but is a cleaner fit in a corner, more a 40-man fringe type unless he’s got another gear of power in the tank. Zanetello signed for $3 million in the 2023 second round and has yet to hit over .200 at any minor league level. It might be time to move him to the mound. Anderson has slid down the defensive spectrum to the point where he’s playing a combination of third and first base, and he’s not hitting enough for first. Encarnacion is a 20-year-old corner infielder with cartoonish bat speed and power but very crude feel to hit. He’s slugging over .500 this year, but I’m skeptical his hit tool will hold water versus upper-level arms. Liendo is 21-year-old infielder with a wrestler’s build. He can really play defense, but hasn’t performed even close to league average with the bat since 2023.
Catchers
Brooks Brannon, C
Ronald Rosario, C
Johanfran Garcia, C
Gerardo Rodriguez, C
Kleyver Salazar, C
Brannon is a 21-year-old power-hitting catcher who was a North Carolina commit but instead turned pro out of high school. A 20- or 30-grade hit tool and arm keep him off the main section of the list; he’s likely to be a right-hitting 1B/DH with plus power but not enough contact. He was moved up to Portland just before publication. After he K’d at a 30% clip in 2023, Rosario had a better season with the bat in 2024. He has roughly average raw power, nothing to scoff at for a 22-year-old catcher, but he needs to develop as a defender; below-average hands and arm accuracy undercut his good raw arm strength. Promising low-level performance made Garcia (Jhostynxon’s brother) a notable young Sox prospect, but a torn ACL squashed his 2024 season. He’s back and looks a good bit heavier and slower (in all facets, including his bat and his mobility on defense) than he did prior to the surgery. He’s someone to monitor as he gets further away from the surgery, but he doesn’t look great right now. Rodriguez is a precocious 19-year-old catcher who got a cup of coffee in Salem last year. He’s back in the FCL for the second consecutive year. Rodrigez’s swing is long, but he has good contact feel for a catcher. Salazar is a sensational athlete and good all-around defensive prospect with a plus arm, but the 19-year-old Venezuelan is unlikely to hit and currently sports a wRC+ just over 60 at Low-A.
Tough to Peg
Brady Tygart, RHP
Luis Cohen, RHP
These guys don’t fit in any other bucket, so they’re here on their own. The oft-injured Tygart was a 2024 12th rounder out of Arkansas who got hurt again (shoulder) in his first 2025 start. He was up to 96 in that outing and bending in two distinct breakers with 2,700-2,800 rpm. Cohen, 22, is an undersized Venezuelan A-ball starter with a fastball that touches 97 but plays down due to its shape and plane. His best pitch is a plus-flashing changeup, and in general, his secondary stuff is good enough to give him spot starter ceiling.
Old(s) Guys and Reclamation Projects
Eduardo Rivera, LHP
Wyatt Olds, RHP
Bryan Mata, RHP
Yovanny Cruz, RHP
Jorge Juan, RHP
Cooper Adams, RHP
Jack Anderson, RHP
Rivera, 22, is a 6-foot-7 Puerto Rican lefty who was originally drafted by the A’s and released in 2024. He’s being deployed as a starter at Greenville and is working in the 93-94 mph range while getting better miss performance out of his slider and changeup. Neither of those secondaries look plus to the eye, and there doesn’t seem to have been any kind of mechanical change here (his usage is different, that’s it), but Rivera is back on the radar as a potential reliever. Olds is a 25-year-old low-slot righty with a mid-90s fastball that plays down due to its shape and Olds’ lack of command. He throws a lot of upper-80s cutters to mitigate this and is a nice depth reliever currently in Worcester. Mata continues to throw hard but generate below-average swing-and-miss results with his sinker. He’s walking 5 per 9 IP in Worcester. Cruz was a Cubs prospect while Craig Breslow was working there. He’s a frustrating and oft-injured 25-year-old Dominican righty with upper-90s velo and plus-flashing secondary stuff. Plane/shape aspects of his fastball cause it to play down a great deal for a pitch averaging 98 mph. Juan (another former Athletic) was released by the Braves earlier this year, but he’s still notable because of his size (he’s 6-foot-8) and arm strength (sitting 96-97). Boston gets to take its turn developing him after Oakland and Atlanta could not. Adams is a 25-year-old 2024 undrafted free agent out of Mount St. Mary’s (by way of UMBC) who has a shot to be a sinker-balling low-slot reliever if he can harness his control. He’s sitting 94-95 at Greenville. Anderson is a 25-year-old righty at Portland who was one of Boston’s minor league Rule 5 picks last year. He’s pitching well in a swingman role with a 90-91 mph fastball and plus splitter. He should be able to lean on the split even more in a pure relief role.
Fastball Elevators
Jeremy Wu-Yelland, LHP
Noah Dean, LHP
Reidis Sena, RHP
This group tends to succeed when they land secondary pitches in the zone early in counts and then finish hitters by climbing the ladder with the fastball. Wu-Yelland is a low-slot lefty out of Hawaii who sits 94-95 and mixes in 90-mph cutters and low-80s sliders. He’s at Portland now, working with plenty of time off between appearances. He could be a lefty specialist, but let’s hold off on declaring that until this guy works on back-to-back days and throws strikes. Dean is a 24-year-old lefty reliever with a riding mid-90s fastball. He has long struggled with control, and he’s throwing most of his pitches for strikes less than 60% of the time again this year at Greenville. Sena has been a walk-prone reliever since he moved to the bullpen full-time in 2023. He elevates mid-90s fastballs and bends breakers into the top of the zone.
Young Hitters
Justin Gonzales, OF
Hector Ramos, SS
Avinson Pinto, SS
Anderson Fermin, OF
Gonzales had an absurd 2024, posting a 90% zone contact rate and 47% hard-hit rate as a 17-year-old in the DSL. He was more or less skipped over the domestic complex level and sent straight to Low-A this year. I absolutely want to give him some grace for being 18 in full season ball, but it does look like Gonzales’ 2024 was a result of physical maturity relative to his DSL peers more than big, legitimate tools. He’s a stiff, maxed-out athlete with a funky swing that doesn’t necessarily look like it will be able to catch up to good fastballs. Ramos, who signed for $500,000 in January, is another of the switch-hitting middle infield prospect archetype I value, and he has physical projection at an athletic 6-foot-1. Pinto and Fermin are relatively small FCL position player prospects who were nearly impossible to make swing and miss in the 2024 DSL. They both have what I’d describe as low impact styles of hitting, more in the slash-and-dash mold than anything generating impact right now.
Young Arms
Dalvinson Reyes, RHP
Jesus Travieso, RHP
Abis Prado, LHP
Reyes, 18, is a 6-foot-5 Dominican righty currently pitching on the Fort Myers complex roster. He’s working with below-average stuff right now, but obviously at this age and size, that might change. The 18-year-old Travieso is an athletic little 5-foot-11 righty who has been up to 98 on the complex and is sitting more 94-95. He’s very small, creating relief risk, and his lateral, mid-80s slider might benefit from greater depth. Prado is an 18-year-old Venezuelan lefty who has been up to 97 in the FCL. He has a slow, soft breaker in the 75-80 mph range and scattered control.
System Overview
This is the best farm system in baseball right now, and it will still be an above-average group when the youngsters who’ve gotten their feet wet in the big leagues are peeled off the top of this list due to graduation. It’s also the best right now even though the Red Sox parted with several good players when they made the Garrett Crochet trade. Roman Anthony is a graded a tier below what is typical for the top overall prospect in baseball at any given time. He’s not in the ZIP code of an Acuña or an Ohtani level prospect, nor is he quite as freaky as someone like James Wood (it’s close, though), but he essentially has too much power to fail. There are people in baseball who have argued to me over the last nine months or so that Kristian Campbell is the one with the more special characteristics, folks who see his uniquely brief journey to the majors as a sign that over time he’s going to be quite special, or who think Campbell will be able to play a valuable defensive position or two and is the real cornerstone of this farm and franchise. They’re radically different players, Kristian and Roman, with similarly exciting futures, despite Campbell’s early big league struggles. I think Marcelo Mayer is more volatile because of his issues with secondary pitches, but ultimately, like Anthony, he has so much lefty pop that he’ll hit well for a shortstop. Franklin Arias lines up right behind Kevin McGonigle on the Top 100 list; they’re both less overtly toolsy than power-hitting stars like Corey Seager and Carlos Correa, and more contact-driven and skills-oriented. Let’s see how Arias’ power and overall offensive performance trend throughout the second half. That group at the front of the 50 FV player tier is poised to move into the top 20 overall as this list cycle ends and the graduates in front of them disappear from my domain. These are foundational position player prospects who any team would love to have in their system.
On the pitching side, the Red Sox seem to covet big bodies, especially when they’re bigger guys who get way down the mound. They often alter the stride direction of the pitchers they acquire (from Brandon Clarke to Crochet) to create a tougher line on their fastball, and pitchers often throw harder after arriving here. Boston seems to encourage pitchers to work off their secondary stuff even when they’re fledgling prospects in the low minors. This can inflate the swing-and-miss performance of a given pitcher in the low minors, and readers/other clubs should be aware of this dynamic.
There are some commonalities to the way hitters in this system are being developed. Many of them end up with similar swings, as if the Red Sox have two or three core swing types that they try to give many of the hitters in their org. Enddy Azocar, for instance, now has a swing that’s mechanically similar to Mayer, Anthony (who was whiff-prone in high school and was made better in pro ball), Miguel Bleis, and several others. Sometimes the Red Sox are simply taking contact-oriented players and asking them to swing with more effort, while at others they’re making mechanical alterations. Both tactics have yielded generally positive results.
The Red Sox aggressively promote their prospects through the minors. At each level below Triple-A, the hitters on their rosters are among the youngest in their league. There’s less signal in the “young for the level” aspect of a player’s eval when it’s less about what they’ve earned and attained, and more about a clear organizational strategy. Whether that strategy is being employed for philosophical reasons related to player development and maturation, or because the Red Sox are trying to increase the standing of their prospects in the eyes of others teams’ pro scouting models via the age/level variable, is hard to say. A clearer truth: Some of these guys are in over their heads, and whatever favors an aggressive promotion does for their model-driven value is almost certainly negated when they’re hitting a buck eighty.
Obviously, this update is being published after the organization maimed its relationship with Rafael Devers and traded him for players who didn’t make much impact on the overall quality of this farm system. A self-imposed wound grew infected and a limb of the franchise was amputated. I think we can all imagine that running baseball ops for a multi-sport, international ownership group (Fenway Sports Group owns the Penguins, Liverpool F.C., a NASCAR racing team, and is involved in golf, among other ventures) may be complicated by unique budgetary dynamics, and the Sox perhaps weren’t allowed to eat money that would have improved their return. It’s still a bad look, and obviously big league success is a much better measure of organizational health than the quality of a farm system. But this is a great farm system, and the near and distant future of the franchise looks promising from a talent standpoint.
Eric Longenhagen is from Catasauqua, PA and currently lives in Tempe, AZ. He spent four years working for the Phillies Triple-A affiliate, two with Baseball Info Solutions and two contributing to prospect coverage at ESPN.com. Previous work can also be found at Sports On Earth, CrashburnAlley and Prospect Insider.
If Connelly Early at #9 is a potential top-100 guy, then this must be the most pitching prospects the Sox have had that are top-100 worthy in over a decade.
Eric, do you have any thoughts you’d want to share on their high usage of breaking balls in the minors this year? There’s been commentary from SoxProspects and Baseball America that it has raised eyebrows within the industry, and Lance Brozdowski has put out some numbers on Youtube quantifying it.
Curious if it’s viewed as something that’s going to become a trend in baseball or if people are skeptical of what they’re doing
Now we’re giving people Ben Zobrist comps because they can’t play any position? Poor Ben Zobrist.
It’s like constantly comparing Luis Arraez to Tony Gwynn.
I know that comparing systems is kind of impossible because Tolle and Clarke made a pretty big jump this year and I think Campbell has graduated (???) by now, but I think that at most points in the pre-season and now this is the best farm system in MLB and I’m not sure it’s close. Anthony probably wasn’t the number one prospect at any point (I’m a Basallo partisan and have been for over a year) but Anthony does have an argument for it, and the sheer number and quality of pitching prospects is excellent.
This is the kind of team that could make an enormous splash if they wanted to, especially since they have a completely full outfield at the MLB level for the next 3 years or so and (let me count here) another three MLB-ready prospects who are likely everyday outfielders of some kind, and they could trade at least a couple of upper-level pitchers without depleting their pipeline. And given the bad press they’ve gotten for trading away Devers, I think they might even consider it.
They could certainly put a package together like they did for Chris Sale and land a true impact player.
You can see my attempt to do that below, the reaction was fun 🙂
Like Vaughn Grissom?
Seriously, though – adding a true impact player means paying that player at some point…not to mention the possibility of one of the players you’ve traded for them having a career year while they have a down one!
They seemed okay with paying Crochet after trading for him. They are just deathly afraid of signing anyone in their 30s.
It’s nice to see Eric come around on Payton Tolle, I loved him in the draft last year. We tend to underrate pitchers who are either super tall or super short and get a lot of extension. I’m going to say that if he does at AA what he did at High A he’s an easy 55.
I’m higher on Yordanny Monegro and Blaze Jordan than this here. I know Monegro blew out his arm, but I saw him more as a 45+ before that. He was destroying AA as a starter and it’s not like he’s some soft tosser either, so if he has to move to the bullpen he might gain a couple of ticks.
As for Blaze Jordan, I don’t think he’s going to be Jose Abreu or anything but I think he could a very good part-time 1B for a couple of years before hitting his decline hard, in the Allen Craig / Michael Morse. He might be their best choice at first base right now.
Looking at their stats, I think EL would probably say in hindsight that Morse was a 35+ guy and Craig was a 45. So if you think Jordan is in their ballpark, a 40 seems appropriate, no?
Eh. I always had a soft spot for Morse, I think he got a terrible go of it in the bigs.Either way, IMO, Morse was at least in the vicinity of 45.
He had a 135 wRC+ in the 7 seasons he played in his 20s, with no discernible splits. He was worth 2.9 WAR his age 29 season despite an impossibly bad -20.6 runs on defense, mostly at 1B, that was an outlier (BR had his season at 4.1 WAR).
Defensive misgivings aside, if he would’ve just been plugged in as a DH before his decline and overreaction to a short-lived defensive revolution that caused him to lose playing time, get traded, be perceived as a platoon player, and a couple of years of legitimate poor performance at an age when a bat-first player can least afford it – 31 and 33 years old – Morse would’ve been far more valuable.
As it was, the only time he was given semi-regular ABs after that, his age 32 season, he put up a 132 wRC+ worth 1.6 WAR (2.1 at BR). He had less than 300 ABs in sporadic playing time the next 3 years before he was out of baseball.
Morse, managed correctly and allowed to hit, or even just play, was a first division DH capable bat who could play everyday, unlike Craig needed defensive value as he didn’t hit RHP enough to be a full time first division DH.
Yeah I think both of them are 45s, they mashed.
I think you could make a solid argument that since Blaze Jordan isn’t any sort of guarantee he’s a 40+, and that a 40+ is really close to a 40, etc but I think he has some upside.
I was ready to give up on Jordan but he’s been great this year. He seems like the kind of guy the Rule 5 draft was made for by forcing teams to give him a chance to play.
He’s probably trade bait for a reliever this summer. Hopefully his new team will give him some runway.
I like the Allen Craig comp.
There’s some prospect fatigue with Jordan, people were expecting more from a guy who had 50 (maybe even 55) raw power as a freshman in HS, and he had to keep repeating levels. But he’s only 22, and he was on the younger side (I think younger than 18) when he was drafted.
Let me throw out an idea that neither team would actually want to do but I would want to see:
Pirates get:
Roman Anthony
Kristian Campbell
Jhostynxon Garcia
Payton Tolle
Brandon Clarke
Connelly Early
Red Sox get:
Paul Skenes
Again, I think this isn’t going to happen because I think at least one team says no, maybe both, but I would love to see this.
This is a laughable proposal. I get Paul Skenes is good, but that is far too much to give up for one pitcher.
It’s not enough. It’s all prospects. One of which has already failed in his first stint and has no defensive home. Roman Anthony is nice but there’s a chance you’re trading 4.5 years of an ace for just one above average player and a bunch of spare parts. There’s a reason why the team trading for the star player usually wins the trade. If I’m trading him, I need a young star player in the majors PLUS top prospects. He’s basically untradeable at this stage. I mean he’s more valuable than Juan Soto when he was traded the first time. I need a Junior Caminero or someone. I’m not trading him for zero proven MLB talent.
Funny the first 2 comments on the trade proposal are polar opposites of each other, which is why these trades usually don’t work!
I will say, if I was a GM, I’d be a little closer to steveo’s line of thinking, esp for a pitcher with 4 years of time before FA. & the issue is that the team trading the young MLB star is probably in win-now mode, so why would they trade a young star already on their roster? & Cherington WILL need someone from the trade to provide positive value right away.
Tough to line that up. Only other team I could really see that could pull this off is Detroit. & they would likely have to part with Greene or Dingler & 2 of Clark/McGonigle/Rainer/Briceno & then 1-2 #6-12 prospects to pull it off..Just too much to pay for 1 guy.
I think Cherington’s incentives are to win now so he doesn’t get fired, so I don’t think he considers trading Skenes at all. But if I was a GM and had job security, I would do this. This is kind of the same decision Mike Rizzo made with the Nationals.
For the Tigers, I think that’s too much for Detroit to pay because they need Greene and Dingler to win games, and they really will need Clark and one of McGonigle / Rainer to play for them to keep winning (probably McGonigle). There are obvious holes for all of the Tigers prospects except maybe Briceno / Liranzo.
Here’s what I think the Tigers could potentially give up, which would get them to somewhere close to the right level but I still don’t think that’s enough:
Jobe (I think this is non-negotiable)
Briceno
Liranzo
Melton
Rainer
Jaden Hamm
I think this return is a lesser return than the Red Sox proposal. Some of this is because I am not in on Jobe, but pretty much everyone had him as an FV60 before the injury. I think he’s probably got similar value to Campbell around the league (whose stock is also likely down). But Anthony is so much better than Briceno, so even though I think that Liranzo / Melton / Rainer is a bit better than Tolle / Clarke Garcia I don’t think it’s going to work.
Why would they trade for Jobe when he’s having TJS and will be out for all of next year? Trading your top 3 pitcher in the sport for an injured pitcher who’s going to spend the first two years of service time hurt is a terrible idea. Also Jobe doesn’t miss bats. The rest of the package is solid but just OK. You could trade Skenes in 2-3 years and get a similar package.
Depends what your grade on him is. If you thought he was a 60 before TJ, what is he now? A 55? A 50 at worst, but I think probably a 55.
(I thought he was a 55 at best before the TJ, but I’m trying to put myself in the shoes of others)
These two people who downvoted me should eat crow.
Based on these two comments, I was right when I said
“Let me throw out an idea that neither team would actually want to do but I would want to see”
and
“I think this isn’t going to happen because I think at least one team says no, maybe both, but I would love to see this.”
Because the first two comments clearly demonstrate what I was talking about.
Lol yeah dude, it’s 2025. Being right is going to get you downvoted. This is the world we live in. 🤷🏻♂️
I agree with this, if I’m the Pirates I pass. I can’t trade Skenes for a bunch of maybe’s, I can’t end up like the White Sox did for Sale. I need a sure thing. Anthony is fantastic, but I’d need him to be the second piece in the deal, not the first.
One with a >50% chance of upcoming TJ surgery, at that.
I think steveo makes valid points, although I disagree that it’s not enough. It is a lot to give up, but it’s worth it.
Here is my case:
Paul Skenes is not just good. Paul Skenes is the rarest beast in the majors, the League Ace. He has the third most fWAR, the second lowest xERA, and the most RA9-WAR in MLB right now and absolutely none of that is a fluke.
I would put him ahead of Crochet (just barely, although further ahead if you take into account injury risk), and he’s pretty clearly ahead of the other candidates for league ace status (Hunter Brown, Zack Wheeler, Logan Webb, Chris Sale, Carlos Rodon, Kris Bubic, Max Fried).
And to top it off, he’s 23 years old and under team control for 4.5 years. He might not have the most trade value in MLB because he’s a pitcher and Bobby Witt exists, but he’s probably #2. And if he’s #3, #2 is a whole lot closer to Paul Skenes than he is to Bobby Witt.
Saying that this is too much to give up for Skenes means that with the exception of Bobby Witt and (Acuna before the injuries, and other nearly inconceivable edge cases) this package is too much to give up for any player.
And I just don’t buy it. Roman Anthony is a very good prospect but not anywhere in the same stratosphere as the Adley Rutschman / Wander Franco / Byron Buxton / Jackson Holliday / Mike Trout / Bobby Witt level of prospect. And even if he was, the first four of them have not been and will not be be the best player in MLB, despite their pedigree and successes. Prospects rarely live up to what we think of them.
That’s my case. And the only real reason why the Pirates should do this deal is because stacking WAR in one player isn’t valuable for a team that has so few good players.
There’s a LHP who recently had an 11 start run with a 95-3 K/BB ratio that is in the league ace discussion.
That said, Skubal is only 1 1/2 years til being a FA, so he’s definitely not in the same stratospehere for trade value.
Skubal? I think Skubal is pretty clearly the best starter in MLB right now, and it would be hard to argue otherwise so I must have forgotten to mention him.
Although Skenes would have way more trade value due to team control.
Edit
It’s an interesting thought exercise. I would initially think that something like the first Soto package would be needed to even get the Pirates on the phone (so maybe would need to add Abreu or Duran), but the risk of a pitcher probably outweighs the extra years from the Sox perspective.
I think Ben Cherington is getting fired well before anything like this happens, but if they hire a GM who wants to blow it all up maybe this offseason? I don’t think it happens now, and probably not ever.
If the redsox were to make a big splash, it should be for star RHH bat imo.
They have so many bats, but really need that middle of the order anchor after the Devers trade + preferably from the right side to balance their lefties
Idk who that is, but I I think if they were going to make a big time trade, it would be that as opposed to another Crochet/Sale style trade
You mean like Mookie Betts?
I just don’t think there are any top right-handed bats available. Judge Acuna, Raleigh, Vlad Jr, Paredes, Jeremy Pena, Ketel Marte, Will Smith, Bobby Witt, Pete Alonso, Jose Ramirez, and Fernando Tatis Jr are not available.
Mike Trout has a no-trade clause, and he’s hurt all the time anyway. I think the same is true for Byron Buxton. In the offseason you might be able to get Suzuki, but definitely not now and probably not in the offseason either. The Rays are quite a bit ahead of the Red Sox in the standings so any of their players are off the table. I think the same is true for the Blue Jays (who aren’t quite as far ahead as the Rays, but are even more desperate to win).
Maybe you could get Rooker but you’d overpay for sure, like that conversation starts with Roman Anthony and probably requires Campbell too. Maybe Eugenio Suarez if the D-Backs fall out of contention but they haven’t given up so far. Ever thought you’d want your team to trade away your big prospects for Eugenio Suarez? Would you like Nick Castellanos? He wouldn’t require any prospects, but he’s far from a star.
This is the thing about trading away guys like Devers, it’s not like you can just go out and get a new guy who hits like that. If they want a right handed masher they’ll have to wildly overpay Pete Alonso in the offseason like everyone else.
I mean if there’s any team that lines up with the Red Sox for a trade rn it’s the Dbacks.
They’re still competing but you can see how some of their pieces would be more useful for Boston than for AZ long term.
Suarez/Lawler for Fitts and Mayer (with assorted lower level pieces to level things out) feels like a fair deal to me tbh.
Suarez gives Boston power they’re missing post Devers. Lawler replaces Mayer as MLB ready prospect. Fitts gives AZ a potentially dependable young starter to replace Kelly next year. And Mayer could replace Suarez immediately.
I’m sure both teams would find a reason to say no but it still seems intriguing to me.
I’m surprised to see Perales all the way down there and labeled as a likely reliever even with the injury. He’s a 45+ for me, regardless this is a very fun farm (even with the campbell graduation). Scrabble’s batted ball data suggests his power maybe a bit overrated. Clarke i can easily see case for 55 even with some command questions, who doesn’t love a pitcher that can both miss bats and get groundballs?
Interesting note about the Red Sox aggressive promotion style. I’ve noticed this following the Brewers system as well and was curious how they maybe stacked up with other orgs that operated in a similar vein.
ROOKIE
FSL Red Sox
18.9 bAge | 19.7 pAge | 16 W – 21 L
.716 OPS (5th) | 1.43 K/BB (13th)
ACL Brewers
18.7 bAge | 19.4 pAge | 19 W – 18 L
.816 OPS (1st) | 2.55 K/BB (5th)
A BALL
Salem Red Sox
19.6 bAge | 22.1 pAge | 27 W – 40 L
.671 OPS (6th) | 1.86 K/BB (9th)
Carolina Mudcats
19.2 bAge | 20.8 pAge | 39 W – 28 L
.740 OPS (1st) | 2.13 K/BB (5th)
A+ BALL
Greenville Drive
20.9 bAge | 23.3 pAge | 34 W – 35 L
.675 OPS (7th) | 3.08 K/BB (2nd)
Wisconsin Timber Rattlers
21.6 bAge | 22.8 pAge | 34 W – 34 L
.673 OPS (10th) | 1.92 K/BB (10th)
AA BALL
Portland Sea Dogs
22.9 bAge | 24.6 pAge | 34 W – 33 L
.652 OPS (9th) | 2.60 K/BB (4th)
Biloxi Shuckers
22.8 bAge | 24.7 pAge | 42 W – 27 L
.736 OPS (1st) | 2.17 K/BB (7th)
Obviously the development of individual players is paramount (especially those small handful with the chance to become MLB stars), and outside of the Carolina League we are dealing with cross-league comparisons twixt the two orgs, but on a team level anyway it looks like the Brewers are pulling off the aggressive promotion schedule a little better to this point.
Without looking at each team’s drafting strategy, it’s hard to make any general conclusions. Perhaps the Sox and Crew are drafting younger than average players as well.
I don’t think any team promotes players as aggressively as the (more) old school leader in Anaheim, followed closely by the (also more) old school leaders in San Diego and Atlanta. Houston is probably #4. Pretty much every other team is “competing” for those last slot in the Top 5.
I wonder if the rapid promotions are related to the Sox defensive struggles at the MLB level. If the team is focused on underlying hitting metrics, they may be ready to promote a player before the defensive metrics stabilize. Seems like players (across all organizations) are promoted for their hitting development rather than their defensive development. If defensive development is harder to see and harder to measure with analytics, the team might not even realize they are rushing a players defensive development.
Narvy has 2.4fwar in 60 games this year. Understanding that he’s hitting a little bit over his head, that’s still easily a 3-4war player and a first division regular. In a world where we have 37 catchers on the preseason top 100, I think he kind of has to be a 50.
Ask any Red Sox fan whether they’d rather have him or Kyle Teel.
The Sox having played exactly 81 games so far makes the ROS projections available on player pages pretty clean for understanding how to value one of the players going forward. The 8 systems average out to ~0.9 WAR for the rest of the season, which means he’s a shade under a 2 WAR player going forward. Last year 22 catchers accumulated 1.8 WAR, so I think calling him a second-division regular is pretty fair. Given his performance so far I would probably tack a + onto the 45, but EL has been very consistent in grouping second-division guys outside of the 50 FV band.
What I think we do a bad job of as fans is how we value these types of players. A fully-baked second-division regular is an extremely valuable piece for a roster. I don’t think the Red Sox would trade Narvaez at this point for a 50, probably not even a 55. But that’s very different than saying that your expectation for him as a player is to be a Top 50 prospect. He doesn’t have the apparent upside you’d want out of a 50, but he’s also much safer. I would love to see him continue improving and beat his grade, but that’s not analysis, it’s being a fan.
Fair methodology to use. With such small samples and projection, the margins matter, and I think at the very least warrant a rounding up rather than a rounding down..
The systems have him at 0.925 WAR in aggregate, but in 206 PA, and not a single projection system has him at more than 207 PA the rest of the year. Connor Wong was the #1 catcher in Boston to start the season. He broke his pinky early – April 7 – but even by then he had started 7 of 9 games, and 1 game he didn’t start was part of a doubleheader. By the time Wong was back May 2, Narvaez had established himself and has kept the playing time.
Given all that, Narvaez still has 231 PA. If we’re going to do the simple back-of-napkin doubling prorating, we should either acknowledge that the ~413 PA, 1.85 WAR projection, is low on playing time for a full time C. If we carried over the actual playing time he’s received, even though he started the season in a reserve role, 462 PA which would put him at ~2.1 WAR.
At 26 he’s probably not projectable for much growth, but if the baseline is 2+, and he’s capable of an All Star season or two, which his performance thus far seems to indicate at least that much upside exists, he’s not a 45.
A 50 is already defined as an average everyday player worth between 1.6 to 2.4 a season, so by either way of looking at it, he should be a 50. I’m not saying it’s the right way, or most accurate, just that it seems fair and logical. But I think if you’re using this methodology, it’s a matter of whether or not he’s in the middle of the pack of the 50 tier, or towards the bottom of it, but I’m not sure how he’s not in it.
I think there’s a good argument here for rounding up, but I try not to impart personal bias on projection systems. Fortunately for us, there’s a Szymborski chat today. Perhaps we can get him to run a full update on Narvaez and see what ZiPS spits out.
Separately, I took a peak back at EL’s 2018 list review from this year’s Prospect Week and I feel like where we’re saying Narvaez is projected here is a very gray area. On one hand, he’s got hindsight 50 grades on Tyler O’Neil (11.3 WAR), Brian Anderson (8.4 WAR), Ryan McMahon (10 WAR), Jesse Winker (8.6) and Tyler Mahle (10 WAR), but 45(+) grades on Harrison Bader (13.1), Ramon Laureano (11), and Joey Wendle (9.0).
It looks like he’s saying that the 50 bucket guys were full-time regulars while the rest of the guys weren’t quite that for the entirety of their team-control years. I think that’s exactly the line that Narvaez is sitting on, so yeah, not sure which way would be most analytically sound.
On a slightly different topic, is Narvaez really a 20 grade runner? He’s no burner but he looks decent for a catcher.
Haha good eye. I hadn’t noticed the Molina rating on him.
Out of 20 catchers with at least 200 PA this year, his spd score is 11th, at 2.3.
Realmuto is at the top with 4.7. Salvador Perez the bottom at 0.4, but there are only 4 catchers under 1.6, Jeffers, O’Hoppe, Kirk, and Salvy.
There are 9 catchers over 3.3.
Dropping it to 150 PA, Narvaez is 16th out of 34. But all 15 in front of him have 2.5+, and I don’t think spd is a rate stat, so we’re adding 5 catchers who have more value in less AB. Shoutout Gabriel Moreno who has 4.2 in 188 PA, who moves into the #3 spot ahead of Raleigh who has 4.0 in 339 PA.
Maybe it is a rate stat though, lowering it to 100 PA he’s 18th out of 47, but Mitch Garver moves to 5th overall with 4.0 in 139 PA.
Either way, he doesn’t move down the pack, nor up it, when other catchers are added to the pool. A pool that only includes catchers, so I do think 20 is low, but strictly by this small sample size speed score, he’s probably also not more than a 30..
Narvaez is exactly why there shoudnt be 37 catchers on the top 100. The position is voodoo, with top prospects busting constantly and random 26 year olds performing like good starters often. Oh, and then most of them dont play full seasons.
It should be downgraded like Pitcher, not upgraded because it’s voodoo
I like Narvaez but Teel is damn good. I’d put him ahead of Quero and some others though.
The Sox MO seems to be getting players with absurd names. Password? Jedixson? Yhoiker? Really???? Am I the only one who reads Yoelin as if Dolly Parton is singing it?
The Red Sox have a phenomenal international scouting operation and Password / Jedixson / Yhoiker / Sadbiel / Enddy are all from Venezuela.
Basically, all this stuff that looks crazy to us is that we aren’t used to Venezuelan naming conventions. At least if you are like me, you grew up with Spanish naming conventions from Mexico / the DR and this is way, way different than that.
The Narvaez / ERC trade looks like a win for both teams at the moment, which is what you want to see (just not within your division).
The Verdugo for Weissert/Fitts looks like an huge steal for Boston. Even if Fitts just becomes a bullpen piece, Weissert has nearly already exceeded Verdugo’s production from the lone year in NY.
Huge steal is a stretch. Weissert is a middle reliever. Fitts is a fifth starter at best. Or swing man. I personally wouldn’t 50 Fitts since he’s got some real whiff/K issues. I just don’t think that profile works as a fly ball pitcher. I’d 45+ or 45 him.
Also the Yankees were contending and needed to fill a role. Granted Verdugo was bad, but that’s the cost of doing business. But the Yankees won’t miss Fitts or Weissert. Or Narvaez. The Yankees grow these guys on trees. Granted maybe not want to help your division rival as much, but it is what it is.
The reasoning of the trade is somewhat defensible. But Verdugo gave the Yankees one year of 0.6 WAR. Weissert alone has been worth 0.8 WAR and they have him through 2029. Fitts is a 50 FV prospect. They have him for six more years. That’s a huge steal.
And nobody grows starting catchers or number 3 starters on trees.
Really going to be fascinating what the redsox do with all their OFers
Anthony/Abreu/Duran/Rafaela. I’d argue Campbell is best suited for LF. Plus, Password destroying AAA.
That’s 6 options, and doesn’t even get to Tibbs/Taylor/Bleis etc who could all be options down the road (Tibbs as soon as next season )
Just as interesting is the INF
Mayer has a spot. But then what?
Is Casas the guy at 1B? Do they keep Bregman? Is Campbell their long term 2B? Or does he move around? Are Arias/Romero options? Do they trade or sign someone like Bichette ?
It feels like their INF could very well just be: Bregman, Mayer, Campbell, Casas. Or it could be Mayer and 3 different guys
I feel like the infield has lots of question, whereas the outfield has lots of answers.
My hope is that they bring Bergman back, move Mayer to SS, and move story into a utility role. I’m not sure whether I prefer Casas at 1B and Campbell at 2B or Campbell at 2B and a Story/Hamilton platoon at 2B.
If Casas isn’t playing 1B, either he or Yoshida need to be traded.
Outfield has a bunch of questions as well, but more potential answers. Abreu is a platoon bat, Rafaela can’t hit, Duran has regressed both in the field and at the plate, Kristian Campbell hasn’t hit or fielded well, Roman Anthony has been impressive in the minors, but he was just called up.
That’s really underselling it. Rafaela is on pace for a 4.5 WAR season and is one of the best defensive CF with a .330 xWOBA.
Abreu is on pace for his second straight 3 WAR season and has awesome underlying metrics.
Those guys are legit starters with a bunch of Control, and I don’t think anyone questions Anthony, his metrics are insane
It’s not underselling it. It’s being realistic. Abreu is a platoon bat. On the strong side, sure, but the Red Sox don’t believe he can hit lefties.
Rafaela is a great defender, not denying that. But you can only play a guy like this when you’re hitting as a team. He’s got a 93 wRC+ and that was *after* a hot streak. Also xWOBA doesn’t consider ball direction and he doesn’t pull the ball. It’s meaningless for him until he can start pulling the ball.
Red Sox do have a bunch of options but after trading away Devers, they *really* need their current bats to step up and Bregman to come back from the IL.
Platoon bat infers a guy who is a ~2 war player or less, like a Refsynder (40-45 FV)
When you are flirting with 3-4 WAR seasons and have excellent metrics/defense that’s not really a platoon guy, it’s an above average player (50-55FV). Abreu is much closer to a 55 than a 45, even if he gets there in a unique way
Also I wouldn’t undersell Rafaela’s xWOBA due to lack of pulling the ball given his entire minor league profile was a guy who hit for more power than expected due to pulled fly balls. He hasn’t been pulling as much lately, but the skill is there. Plus, even if he’s “only” a 90 wRC+ bat, that’s still a 3 WAR player, a guy that’s perfectly capable as an everyday starter
That’s not how it works–his value on defense still counts even if the rest of the team’s offense isn’t very good. And his value on defense is really, really high. His 79 wRC+ last year would have been good enough to make him an average starter if they had played him in CF the whole season.
His 91 wRC+ this year is good enough to make him a 4+ WAR player. And it’s not like that’s the result of some fluke or streak. ZIPS projected him for a 95 wRC+ and Steamer a 90 wRC+ preseason.
At worst, he’s a slightly above average starting CF locked up through 2031.
Great write-up! Question about Narvaez:
“He could maybe use a lefty-hitting caddy, but he seems poised to be Boston’s primary backstop for a while and is talented enough for that to be an acceptable, borderline exciting proposition.”
So he’s fine as a starter and maybe more.
Maybe nitpicking but isn’t this a 50 FV player?
I think you meant to write that Campbell looked incredible in April, as he was genuinely awful during spring training with a wRC+ of 54 while playing terrible defense. That’s why it was such a surprise that Boston decided to keep him on the Opening Day roster.
He wasn’t pulling the ball in the air consistently last season either, which I specifically mentioned in comments on the preseason top 100 piece: “he hits too much to straight away for him to fully utilize his power.“
Campbell isn’t just “a bad second baseman,” he was the worst fielder in the majors according to OAA and DRS. The problem is that relegating him to LF/1B/DH puts more pressure on his bat to carry his value.
I was surprised at how kind the write-up was to Campbell. As recently as last season he was graded at 45+. I thought the recent offensive struggles coupled with his defensive collapse would push him back at least to 55, possibly a 50.
In his defense, he seems to have been handled terribly. He was rushed to the big leagues after moving up 3 levels last year and once there, he was shuttled around between 2B and CF, while also starting to learn 1B.
It’s interesting to me that he is such a bad fielder when he clearly has the speed for center.
It’s interesting to me that Eric and others say he has plus speed when statcast sprint speed & even his home to first times are very average. I get sprint speed isn’t the best metric, but for the most part, the fast guys rate well and slow guys rate badly.
I am very happy with this system. A couple OF need to be traded for SP. In fact, I am wondering about Campbell’s long-term defensive ability and whether or not we should trade him as well (for appropriate value or better, of course).
what would the Braves get if they traded Chris Sale, Ozuna, and Pierce Johnson to the Red Sox? Boston seems to be following the Baltimore model, so I don’t see them trading much.
But they have a playoff shot, Atlanta doesn’t. They need pitching, Atlanta has pitching. They have a deep farm, Atlanta has a poor farm.
On paper they seem like good trade partners.
Sox fans are tired of sitting around in last place. This may be a great farm system, but Sox management need to get off their duffs and trade some of the redundancy away to get the major league team back to being something worth watching.
Have the meanings of the scouting grades shifted somewhat over time? I ask because I’m trying to square the following about Roman Anthony:
A franchise cornerstone who’s not quite Acuna sounds a lot better than a 60/3.0 WAR player. It seems like an easy 65, borderline 70.